This is my reading of the situation on the ground. Na niko ground and here and about.
1. At this time THERE IS SIMPLY NO WAY Ruto can use Gema RV as hostages. If he does or tries or something like even a false flag take place, then the full force of Dynasties will be activated to finish him and isolate "his people (Kalenjins)". In short he would be shooting himself in the foot and mouth and everywhere by giving his enemies the excuse they seek.. It would simply be dumb. Period.
2. Ruto is enjoying Mt. Kenya support NOT because they are intimidated but because of their own agenda/interests as they see them. Eg:,
(A) Uhuru is giving Mt Kenya some PM. Parliamentary system. In this system any serious Kikuyu analyst can see IT IS ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE FOR MT. KENYA. Reason being Mt. Kenya would be GIVING UP their numerical advantage for something they cannot control. As Constitution stand at the moment, a Mt Kenya is almost guaranteed the President itself or Deputy President. The worst is probably Majority Leader. This is because of massive vote numbers. Simple. Anyone who wants Presidency MUST consider how to play game and accommodate Gema otherwise Gema can organize and form alliance with anyone else.
With what Uhuru's PM thing, the future would be dire. Mt. Kenya advantage of numbers would be neutralised. Indeed IF KAMATUSA GROUPINGS can hold on as a block then anyone from that Block would ALWAYS BE HAVING THE UPPER HAND. Just check number of parliamentary seats. It would be such a block that would now have advantage. This is like Kanu/Kadu all over again. Therefore it makes little sense for Mt. Kenya to agree to such. It's like shooting yourself in the head and then relying on expertise and Doctors mercy to survive. It's lunacy.
Therefore Gema can see that this thing PM is BENEFITING UHURU ALONE. He hasn't factored in future after him. Therefore it makes all the more sense for Mt Kenya to stick with Jubilee Deal and have Ruto take over with a Mt Kenya running mate. After Ruto, the said running mate will have a better chance...
(B) Ruto "humbleness" or "loyalty" or perception of those virtues in him also endears him to Mt. Kenya. It goes like this: "we" (Mt. Kenya) have severally formed alliance with Raila but it has never worked or when it worked it ended up being chaotic. Kibaki/Raila 2002 hardly lasted 1yr before "makelele" started and disharmony in government. It became like 2 governments in one culminating in 2005 Referendum fiasco. Which then went on to poisonous 2007 "41 vs 1" vitriolic campaign led by Raila which gave us 2007/08 civil war. Then birthing of PM Raila which then was full of recriminations till the end.
Now that is contrasted with Uhuru/Ruto alliance which is viewed as stable. And that Ruto has not undermined or disrespected Uhuru or sabotaged anything. Therefore people ask: "kwanini sasa tuachane na Ruto twende kwa Raila?" what has changed? This question cannot be adequately answered by anyone. No one has a convincing reason apart from Uhuru will STILL BE HAVING POWER.
(C) Another reason for Ruto support is being promoted convincingly by Kikuyu Diaspora in RV. The 2007/08 violence was extreme in RV between Kales and Kikuyu. One would expect maybe Kikuyus not to trust a Kale in power but that hasn't worked that way. They reason that since Ruto joined Uhuru there has been peace and goodwill. They not only share a border with Kales but their lives are intertwined much more. And Kales supported Uhuru to a man and they haven't caused any trouble therefore Why Should they risk such by following Uhuru to a place they don't understand? Then they say they don't share border with Luos (only meet in towns) therefore why would they now abandon their next door for someone across the sea yet there are no benefits? What for? Why would they create political tensions for just because Uhuru can be PM? And yet Uhuru government is even yet to pay so many IDPs compensation as government promised long ago?
Those are key factors that favour Ruto in Mt. Kenya and Diaspora.
Having said that, this BBI need to be sabotaged. I have no simple answer as most politicians in Kenya have no principles, they just follow power and money. But parliamentary system is not good for Kenya. Period.
Ruto has made it impossible for Uhuru pple to make case against him in GEMA..by smartly refusing to engage...he basically focuses on Raila and even the media..accuses Raila of betwitching Uhuru using Enugu spirit.The other part of course is Ruto has 1m kikuyu diaspora as his hostage.This time round GEMA is truly cornered.Imagine having to choose btw Raila with huge axe and Ruto holding your people under hostage.Ruto is offering DPORk n 50-50 in a surebet jubilee gov.Raila is offering a non existent executive PM.Raila has no history of honouring his deals...Ruto has worked with GEMA for all these years.The immediate concern for GEMA is of course to maintain peace in rift valley...and that they can only do by honouring their commitment to Ruto otherwise we are back to 2007.