How do you spin this Pundit ? - I told you more than a year ago that it is over!

[Garliv]

I agree with your analysis. Only difference I am a Ruto supporter. I view the whole BBI thing as "stealing" Ruto Presidency. Only BBI stand between Ruto and Presidency. And BBI is/was crafted to make sure Son of Jomo doesn't retire. He wants to still be calling shots despite what else he says. The Union with Raila is just two self serving greedy scions of Kenya's greedy and corrupt founders. They don't want to "give up"..

Truth is once Raila and Uhuru hit the ground to campaign for Parliamentary system then very few can oppose them. Almost none has resources like they do. MaDVD, Kalonzo, Weta, Joho and other regional kingpins have no choice but to support the two gang members. Only Ruto has wherewithal to oppose them but he cannot beat that combination. He simply cannot.
Even if Mt. Kenya rebels against BBI, Uhuru cannot fail to master 40% which combined with Raila and others is simply unassailable.

As the constitution stands, Ruto would have a head start but with BBI changes, the whole thing is snatched from him.

Kakamega BBI rally live at Bukhungu. Mdvd, Weta, Eunice, Bungome Governor Wangamati, Trans Nzoia Governor Khaemba and the shebang in attendance. Pundit leta spin - how Didimas and Waluke will deliver Bukusu to Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

You're getting ahead of yourself. First Uhuru trying to extend his rule in anyway will be resisted both locally and internationally. It will be such a bad move - he should never entertain such thoughts.

Now let get to basic. I don't understand why Uhuru would go out of his way to give us a lame BBI - and then spend the next six months trying to square cycles - and hold a referendum like Orengo wants in six months. That is pure laughable madness.

Now I know everyone apart from Ruto wants to have bigger executive so they can share power. So yes BBI promising more jobs will be popular. I don't think Ruto will oppose it if it comes the vote. Whether it's parliamentary or presidential - the rule of the game do not change - someone still has to have larger party or coalition or votes. That is where Ruto really need to focus - and opinion polls so far suggests he is doing very well.

Ruto job like I have repeatedly said is to buy time and ensure the constitution doesn't get changed.

He is doing well so far. We have 2.5 yrs to election in 2022.

I am not sure how practical it is for :-

1) Pro-BBI team to meet and agree on BBI 2.0 - I know you think they will buy you 'genius' ideas but nothing suggest they would. The team just got gazetted. Let assume they will take the six months - to do another round of pretend data/views collections - to come up with 'New Consensus' document or Constitutional Amendment Bill.
 
Risk No 1 for BBI 2.0: Our judiciary could throw a wedge on that - our judiciary is free for all - some are fiercely independent - some are corrupt - Uhuru certainly has no control that is why his election was annuled and he is not seeing eye to eye with JSC & Maraga.

2) Then assume we Robina Constitutional Amendment Bill ready for signature collections in Mid June - and Kibicho deploys provincial administration to collect 1M signatures - in a month.

Risk: Judiciary could stop or declare such signature collections null and void.

3) Then IEBC whose jobs are on the line - are suppose to take 3 months - to verify. You cannot squeeze IEBC time on that.

Risk: IEBC could reject the signatures like they did to OKOA or the process could end up in court.

4) Let also assume Uhuru's manages to convince Ichungwa and parliament to add referendum budget for IEBC.

Risk : Parliament might refuse to find budget for uncontested referendum.

----We are now in 2021 --- election campaigns are catching up fire --------------- Uhuru is now officially a lame duck.

5) Let also assume that IEBC verify the signatures - and now counties are given 3 months to deliver their verdict to IEBC.

Risk : 24 counties could fail to ratify this or well judicial fight.

6) IEBC submit the bill to senate and parliament. Parliament either passes or oppose or sits on.

Risk : Parliament sitting on bill. Duale only wants to be the PM under Ruto presidency - he knows anything else is a pipe dream.

7) IEBC to conduct the referendum and we go for yes and no.

Risk ; IEBC has not funding.

: Referendum results are contested - judiciary either accepts or annuls.

Bottomline; For Uhuru to undo the constitutional limits he will be killing a lot more people.

BBI 2.0 remain the big card yes. From endless praises of the process in Jan 2020 Uhuru seem very determined. Taskforce was extended and Raila is onto the legwork. It laughable to claim Raila-Uhuru combo would have any difficulty fast-tracking the process - 1m signatures (joke), IEBC (joke), 24 counties (joke), parliament (joke). MPs are Judases who only care about their interest as you saw Duale back parliamentary and desert Ruto in the hour of need. Parliamentary is very hard to beat in non-GEMA. With Speaker Muturi and the minority leaders and maybe even Duale it impossible to block or "sit" on the bill. In any case you don't even need numbers just a rejection and it roll over to referendum. Tough luck beating parliamentary and more devolution on  the ground.

Kiunjuri and GEMA - Uhuru looks ready to persecute Tangatanga and keep them out of Mt Kenya. Look at Kuria lock-up and Susan Kihika in Nax. From the warnings of Kinyanjui and wa Iria about folks disrespecting Uhuru will not be allowed free reign in the mountain... it seem Tangatamga will face it rough. It very easy to kick Ruto and Kiunjuri out of GEMA especially Kikuyu. Now with all the goodies for farmers you see it will be hard to sell Ruto when Nyoro and Kuria are physically barred from holding rallies. Uhuru seem ruthless Moi-Jomo not lame Kibaki - I think you have mistook his silence before for weakness.

Jubilee & power levers - Uhuru has the GoK machinery yes. He also control judges through intimidation when push come to shove. Presidential run-off comes to mind - they brazenly executed Philomena Muilu driver and ensured there was no quorum. Judiciary is only independent when there is no dirty war. But a determined PORK can manipulate them with his NIS and other tools. Parliament you can save it please - MP allegiance depends on interests. In the case of BBI/parliamentary Ruto is in the minority. Jubilee Party of course is a conundrum. PORK has the muscle to either block the polls or mess with them altogether by forcing his guys in. This Imperial PORK can do anything... see all these intimidated governors have all lined up behind BBI. If he can lock DPORK out of his official residence - what difficult about kicking him out of the party? Ironially it is reforming this same Almighty PORK tha you vehemently oppose? It self- defeating.

Uhuru will likely enter a coalition with Raila and Kalonzos/Mdvd crew as Party Leader - ahead of 2022 before or after referendum - and Ruto has no shortage of choices for party. Tanga Tanga Party, United Green Movement, name it. Problem is against Uhuru-for-PM and Raila running circles in non-GEMA - it will be a mountain for him.

What Nyahunyo can he really unleash when he is becoming lame-duck everyday. Maybe he unleashes an assassination squad otherwise as long as the GEMA people are anti-Raila he is wasting time, energy and strategy. I think Kiunjuri need to take war to him now. As for Lee - he knows his time is up - and Kihika daughter will sweep the floor with him & Mbugua. Nakuru is the const you want to least annoy Ruto because Kalenjin makes nearly 40% of the vote (if not more).

As of now Uhuru has executive authority - Ruto has parliament - and Judiciary is out there. Ruto has the Jubilee party and majority support of Jubilee members.Anyway let see first how Jubilee elections will go. Then we get BBI 2.0. And then we take it from there.

Ruto best strategy is to bid time - to survive 2020 - and then 2021 it full campaign mode - and Uhuru will be forgotten - as lame-duck failure (farmers failure is a shadow because his big 4 is becoming a BIG JOKE) - as Raila get blamed for messing up Jubilee and hustler narrative is unleashed.

Ruto just need to ensure the constitution is not amended (increasingly becoming impossible - considering the timelines needed to come up with new constitution - have BBI2.0 come up with executive pm in parliamentary system - we can live with that , collect 1m signatures, have the signatures verified by IEBC, have the bill prepared approved in 24 counties, have it go to parliament for a vote (or to be sat on) - both houses, have it frustrated by judicial injunctions along the way with Omtaha already on it, have IEBC funded to conduct the referendum)-

Ruto should avoid attacking Uhuru directly - Just deflect and attack Raila. Continue with shadow boxing - until Uhuru makes it clear - via constitutional referendum  that he is in the ring - and then Ruto can stop pulling punches.

[RV Pundit]

I doubt Uhuru can trust Raila to be PORK - because trust me if he was to short-change Ruto - Ruto will also short-change him - and only beneficiary will be Raila.

In this game - ignore the pawns and focus on the main movers
1) Raila
2) Uhuru
3) Ruto

Each roughly control anything 25-30% of the national total votes directly without a coalition partner.

Now if Uhuru ditches Ruto - Ruto also goes to Raila to exact his revenge - and Raila wins - and rule the way he wants - with Executive Power - I don't think Raila just want to be ceremonial PORK.

In my view Raila is scare-crow that Uhuru is using not steal alone or monopolize power now - he is playing both Raila and Ruto so he can spend the next five years linning up his pockets - and then go home - with handsome retirement package.

He knows very well the hue & cry that will great any suggestion to extend power, the impossibility of wielding such power with Raila (and Ruto) and finally he is not politically gifted to pull such moves. Ruto and Raila could definitely pull a extension of power - but you cannot use prov administration or security to do that.

That is why people close to him like Matiangi - are trying to position themselves to be the future PMs. They know very well Uhuru is going home.

And as long as Uhuru is going home - and Ruto is facing Raila - it will be easy game.

Anyway let BBI square them circles first.

I agree with your analysis. Only difference I am a Ruto supporter. I view the whole BBI thing as "stealing" Ruto Presidency. Only BBI stand between Ruto and Presidency. And BBI is/was crafted to make sure Son of Jomo doesn't retire. He wants to still be calling shots despite what else he says. The Union with Raila is just two self serving greedy scions of Kenya's greedy and corrupt founders. They don't want to "give up"..

Truth is once Raila and Uhuru hit the ground to campaign for Parliamentary system then very few can oppose them. Almost none has resources like they do. MaDVD, Kalonzo, Weta, Joho and other regional kingpins have no choice but to support the two gang members. Only Ruto has wherewithal to oppose them but he cannot beat that combination. He simply cannot.
Even if Mt. Kenya rebels against BBI, Uhuru cannot fail to master 40% which combined with Raila and others is simply unassailable.

As the constitution stands, Ruto would have a head start but with BBI changes, the whole thing is snatched from him.

Kakamega BBI rally live at Bukhungu. Mdvd, Weta, Eunice, Bungome Governor Wangamati, Trans Nzoia Governor Khaemba and the shebang in attendance. Pundit leta spin - how Didimas and Waluke will deliver Bukusu to Ruto.

[Garliv]

And it's here i think you are making a serious mistake. Uhuru is SERIOUS. And yes, Raila is politically the least trustworthy and that's why Mt. Kenya populace don't trust him at all. And that why even Moses Kuria think Raila has bewitched Uhuru. But for some reason Uhuru is banking on trusting Raila this time.

Also what can Hustler offer Raila? Deputy President? PM? As of now I don't think Raila can get anything from Ruto apart from President itself.

I doubt Uhuru can trust Raila to be PORK - because trust me if he was to short-change Ruto - Ruto will also short-change him - and only beneficiary will be Raila.

In this game - ignore the pawns and focus on the main movers
1) Raila
2) Uhuru
3) Ruto

Each roughly control anything 25-30% of the national total votes directly without a coalition partner.

Now if Uhuru ditches Ruto - Ruto also goes to Raila to exact his revenge - and Raila wins - and rule the way he wants - with Executive Power - I don't think Raila just want to be ceremonial PORK.

In my view Raila is scare-crow that Uhuru is using not steal alone or monopolize power now - he is playing both Raila and Ruto so he can spend the next five years linning up his pockets - and then go home - with handsome retirement package.

[RV Pundit]

And it's here i think you are making a serious mistake. Uhuru is SERIOUS. And yes, Raila is politically the least trustworthy and that's why Mt. Kenya populace don't trust him at all. And that why even Moses Kuria think Raila has bewitched Uhuru. But for some reason Uhuru is banking on trusting Raila this time.

Also what can Hustler offer Raila? Deputy President? PM? As of now I don't think Raila can get anything from Ruto apart from President itself.

I doubt Uhuru can trust Raila to be PORK - because trust me if he was to short-change Ruto - Ruto will also short-change him - and only beneficiary will be Raila.

In this game - ignore the pawns and focus on the main movers
1) Raila
2) Uhuru
3) Ruto

Each roughly control anything 25-30% of the national total votes directly without a coalition partner.

Now if Uhuru ditches Ruto - Ruto also goes to Raila to exact his revenge - and Raila wins - and rule the way he wants - with Executive Power - I don't think Raila just want to be ceremonial PORK.

In my view Raila is scare-crow that Uhuru is using not steal alone or monopolize power now - he is playing both Raila and Ruto so he can spend the next five years linning up his pockets - and then go home - with handsome retirement package.

why do you think Uhuru is serious.You make an assertion you can logically support and we go from there.. Unless you're privy to Uhuru thinking.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Robina - and seem you have a lot of reconcilliation to do with Uhuru - before unleashing BBI 2.0

Another source said the President said he was still committed to one-man, one-vote, one-shilling, meaning that he still prefers a presidential system.

That is doublespeak for "I will be Exec PM"... so long as he is running again there will be overhaul of the system. Why do you think he appends "one shilling" if not to mock Kioni and Tangatanga?

It seems pretty obvious what kamwana's intentions are.  At a minimum, given the way he has been mistreating the hustler, it's naive to think he plans to hand over the instruments of state to him(yes, Presidential elections are fake in Kenya).  He does not.

[Kichwa]

Exactly, its like we know when mama is cooking Ugali or is on strike.

Robina - and seem you have a lot of reconcilliation to do with Uhuru - before unleashing BBI 2.0

Another source said the President said he was still committed to one-man, one-vote, one-shilling, meaning that he still prefers a presidential system.

That is doublespeak for "I will be Exec PM"... so long as he is running again there will be overhaul of the system. Why do you think he appends "one shilling" if not to mock Kioni and Tangatanga?

It seems pretty obvious what kamwana's intentions are.  At a minimum, given the way he has been mistreating the hustler, it's naive to think he plans to hand over the instruments of state to him(yes, Presidential elections are fake in Kenya).  He does not.

[RV Pundit]

It seem pretty obvious that he either trust or handover to Raila or Ruto. I think whatever issues he has with Ruto pale in comparison with Raila - and his community deficit of trust on Raila is not going to be bridged easily. They have refused to board the handshake & BBI despite 2 yrs of pleading, cajoling and even corralling.

Well he can entertain entrusting someone else like Matiangi or MaDVD or any other political greenhorn - but they will be mauled - as worthless projects.

In short if you look at it - Ruto is doing well as clear frontrunner - while Uhuru is btw a rock and hard place. And he doesn't have time because the moment he become lame-duck - then somebody else will emerge and lead GEMA - like Ruto did to Moi.

It seems pretty obvious what kamwana's intentions are.  At a minimum, given the way he has been mistreating the hustler, it's naive to think he plans to hand over the instruments of state to him(yes, Presidential elections are fake in Kenya).  He does not.

[Garliv]

This is why i think Uhuru is serious with Amend Katiba for PM Madness.

1. What else can Uhuru do? He is a known drunkard that were it not for Moi, he would probably be drunkenly dead in some Thika sewage gully. Once he is out of Presidency even his family will not and cannot allow him near family businesses. He will simply be idle and ignored and drunk to wither away in obscurity. He doesn't want that and his almighty family want him to stay: so he has to scheme how to stay.

2. His power brokers or fixers or simply mafia aka his elitist advisers are damn serious they cannot let Ruto be president. This i know cause some have publicly stated so and i have other first hand knowledge. They have some special dislike/fear of Ruto Presidency. Some of them view Ruto more useful dead. And Uhuru is controlled by such Kikuyu elites and there are his drinking and social buddies. All harebrained ideas they give Uhuru end up manifesting themselves.

3. The reason Uhuru/Kibicho/Matiang'i are so damn brutal on Mt. Kenya leaders supporting TangaTanga/Ruto is because of no. 2. In that there was an assumption that Mt. Kenya would automatically follow Uhuru on cue on this PM thing was dangled. But to their surprise the whole thing has proved very unpopular in Mt. Kenya. And therefore they now seek to cajole and openly threaten. Logically if Uhuru was "playing trick" on Raila I doubt he would let his backyard leaders be "molested..." What would be the point anyway? Why would he want to leave Presidency quarreling with "his people" if he wasn't serious?

4. Uhuru speeches and action. Eg, his new year Speech he stated BBI is the vehicle to address election violence every five years, to address historical injustices etc. He didn't even mention the Constitution. Just BBI. Then he had said towards end of last year that "from January sitaki mchezo..." or some sheeet like that. It was direct threats to TangaTanga team. And now you can see for yourselves who are being targeted. Then he told some Mt. Kenya Wazee at Gicheha Farm that they should mobilize others and support BBI since" Mt. Kenya tutapata kiti kubwa... " Surely if he is" tricking Raila" would he expose himself to such ridicule if he isn't serious?

5. Uhuru Family's business empire and profits have expanded exponentially during his Presidency. Now you can imagine what they can do in the next 10yrs or 8yrs if Uhuru is still in charge. Muhoho his brother does accompany him on foreign trips principally due to business cronyism. You think The Family and Uhuru himself want to give up such?

6. Then don't forget the "little issue" of ICC where the court is waiting for the suspects to leave power. Remember the ICC court claimed these suspects used their position in government to frustrate evidence and even eliminate witnesses. They are waiting on the wings. It is one more reason for him to stick around as much as possible.

7. If he just wanted "peace to finish his term" all this elaborate BBI  ruse would be unnecessary. He would have appointed Raila and his cronies to their desired position and then he just relax.

8. Then of course where would akina Matiang'i, Kibicho and others get cajones to do what they do/say and no action or reprimand is forthcoming? If Uhuru was not serious, such behavior by Civil servants wouldn't be condoned at all.

Despite all of what I have stated, once you take totality of Uhuru's political behaviour and rhetorics, the conclusion is simple: THIS GUY IS SERIOUSLY EYEING THE PM POSITION UNDER BBI.

NB: Do you think Uhuru is a BETTER political schemer than Raila? I ask because if Uhuru is taking Raila for a ride, what is Raila plan? Because to me Raila is infinitely a better political schemers than Uhuru by several miles.

why do you think Uhuru is serious.You make an assertion you can logically support and we go from there.. Unless you're privy to Uhuru thinking.
[/quote]

[RV Pundit]

Yes, I was amongst the first people to entertain the possibility of Uhuru wanting to extend his term - immediately after 2017 elections - when he started going rogue - during cabinet appointment - however I am not convinced he really want to stay.

We have basically had two theories - Uhuru is playing both Ruto (to do away with 50-50) & Raila (to contain him) - or Uhuru is interested in continuing.

1) It not easy thing to pull an extension of term limit in kenya - trust me if Uhuru fears his family that much - the kind of local and international pressure coming his way will see him crying to Mama Ngina. Leave ICC of 2007 - he will be reigniting another ICC if he undo the peace btw Kalenjin and Kikuyu. You can bet Kalenjin will not take the betrayal of Ruto lightly.

2) If Uhuru was interested in extending his term - he would be politically more engaged. He has disengaged and has left the political class esp mt Kenya out in the rut. You don't win political favours by using prov admin & security. You don't crackdown on corruption if you're interested in politics. He is doing that - because I believe he knows he is going home - he doesn't care.

3) BBI was a water-shed moment. It came out a groper. We don't have executive PM in BBI. We have Raila and co running helter skleter trying to reset BBI and give us BBI 2.0. So until we have this BBI executive PM in concrete document - it's just hot air. Orengo has promised us a new katiba in six months . He must be a new Prophet Dr Owour convert - to believe such miracles are possible.

4) Turning from President and Commander in Chief to become PM (a gloried Duale) who will be saluting Raila & getting abused in parliament is the kind of desperation I don't expect Uhuru will stomach. PM is a lot of hardwork for a lazy man like him. I would buy Uhuru removing term limits before I buy that PMship.

We shall see who is right or wrong - but my diagnosis so far - Uhuru don't care attitude is because he is going home - and some folks have taken advantage of that - to attempt to posion the relation btw him & Ruto - and to further their personal ambitions ( I am talking the likes of Matiangi & Waiguru) who think Uhuru & Raila will appoint them. Raila obviously has long quit that business of Tosharing people.

Anyway we have another six months for Orengo referendum - and 3 months for Jubilee party election - Uhuru cannot keep his cards forever hidden. He has to play them soon.

Ultimately Uhuru like Mt Kenya have to pick btw Ruto and Raila. The rest are details.

This is why i think Uhuru is serious with Amend Katiba for PM Madness.

1. What else can Uhuru do? He is a known drunkard that were it not for Moi, he would probably be drunkenly dead in some Thika sewage gully. Once he is out of Presidency even his family will not and cannot allow him near family businesses. He will simply be idle and ignored and drunk to wither away in obscurity. He doesn't want that and his almighty family want him to stay: so he has to scheme how to stay.

2. His power brokers or fixers or simply mafia aka his elitist advisers are damn serious they cannot let Ruto be president. This i know cause some have publicly stated so and i have other first hand knowledge. They have some special dislike/fear of Ruto Presidency. Some of them view Ruto more useful dead. And Uhuru is controlled by such Kikuyu elites and there are his drinking and social buddies. All harebrained ideas they give Uhuru end up manifesting themselves.

3. The reason Uhuru/Kibicho/Matiang'i are so damn brutal on Mt. Kenya leaders supporting TangaTanga/Ruto is because of no. 2. In that there was an assumption that Mt. Kenya would automatically follow Uhuru on cue on this PM thing was dangled. But to their surprise the whole thing has proved very unpopular in Mt. Kenya. And therefore they now seek to cajole and openly threaten. Logically if Uhuru was "playing trick" on Raila I doubt he would let his backyard leaders be "molested..." What would be the point anyway? Why would he want to leave Presidency quarreling with "his people" if he wasn't serious?

4. Uhuru speeches and action. Eg, his new year Speech he stated BBI is the vehicle to address election violence every five years, to address historical injustices etc. He didn't even mention the Constitution. Just BBI. Then he had said towards end of last year that "from January sitaki mchezo..." or some sheeet like that. It was direct threats to TangaTanga team. And now you can see for yourselves who are being targeted. Then he told some Mt. Kenya Wazee at Gicheha Farm that they should mobilize others and support BBI since" Mt. Kenya tutapata kiti kubwa... " Surely if he is" tricking Raila" would he expose himself to such ridicule if he isn't serious?

5. Uhuru Family's business empire and profits have expanded exponentially during his Presidency. Now you can imagine what they can do in the next 10yrs or 8yrs if Uhuru is still in charge. Muhoho his brother does accompany him on foreign trips principally due to business cronyism. You think The Family and Uhuru himself want to give up such?

6. Then don't forget the "little issue" of ICC where the court is waiting for the suspects to leave power. Remember the ICC court claimed these suspects used their position in government to frustrate evidence and even eliminate witnesses. They are waiting on the wings. It is one more reason for him to stick around as much as possible.

7. If he just wanted "peace to finish his term" all this elaborate BBI  ruse would be unnecessary. He would have appointed Raila and his cronies to their desired position and then he just relax.

8. Then of course where would akina Matiang'i, Kibicho and others get cajones to do what they do/say and no action or reprimand is forthcoming? If Uhuru was not serious, such behavior by Civil servants wouldn't be condoned at all.

Despite all of what I have stated, once you take totality of Uhuru's political behaviour and rhetorics, the conclusion is simple: THIS GUY IS SERIOUSLY EYEING THE PM POSITION UNDER BBI.

NB: Do you think Uhuru is a BETTER political schemer than Raila? I ask because if Uhuru is taking Raila for a ride, what is Raila plan? Because to me Raila is infinitely a better political schemers than Uhuru by several miles.

why do you think Uhuru is serious.You make an assertion you can logically support and we go from there.. Unless you're privy to Uhuru thinking.

[/quote]

[Nefertiti]

1) Uhuru read hostile ground in Gema and decided to do some prep work against impatient Raila advice. The taskforce wazee are marktiming in 5-star hotels - they already have a complete parliamentary report and bill. The legwork being done by Handshake crew seem well oiled - ODM, regional kingpins, CS's, name it.

2) Trick Ruto crew to embrace weak PM in BBI 1.0 - then corner them with BBI 2.0. It foregone conclusion that you will have a PM now - it merely a question of how powerful. It twice harder now to malign parliamentary.

The referendum is not Orengo or Raila's demand. Uhuru needs it to rig in a 3rd term.

You're getting ahead of yourself. First Uhuru trying to extend his rule in anyway will be resisted both locally and internationally. It will be such a bad move - he should never entertain such thoughts.

Now let get to basic. I don't understand why Uhuru would go out of his way to give us a lame BBI - and then spend the next six months trying to square cycles - and hold a referendum like Orengo wants in six months. That is pure laughable madness.

Ruto already capitulated yes. It arguable that he has the numbers - I don't see them. Who is he running against and for what job? Will Gema stay intact as Uhuru rain blows? Is Kiunjuri the runningmate? VP to ceremonial president? Parliamentary reshuffles that deck big-time. Now, it abit contradictory to state Ruto strategy is to block BBI/parliamentary. Isn't capitulation a gameshot on that?

Now I know everyone apart from Ruto wants to have bigger executive so they can share power. So yes BBI promising more jobs will be popular. I don't think Ruto will oppose it if it comes the vote. Whether it's parliamentary or presidential - the rule of the game do not change - someone still has to have larger party or coalition or votes. That is where Ruto really need to focus - and opinion polls so far suggests he is doing very well.

Ruto job like I have repeatedly said is to buy time and ensure the constitution doesn't get changed.

He is doing well so far. We have 2.5 yrs to election in 2022.

We flogged your "BBI is illegal ab initio" horse dead here a few months back. You claimed it illegal for wazee to write report in 5-star without act of parliament. Yet Aukot write Punguza bill in his bedroom with the wife and it was legit.

Aukot and Gusii lady professor Moraa Somebody already ran to court with that argument and lost. Katiba kick in at signature not before. Equally there is no referendum law and the item is separate from the object of the referendum itself. You can fund a referendum from your pocket and that would not invalidate the outcome. Another analogy is party fund - you deny say ODM treasury funds they get from other sources and they still legally run their affairs and contest elections. Referendum is not delegitimized by lack of budgetary funding.

During/after Punguza signature some activist ran to court questioning the IEBC validation. Judge rejected and said IEBC is competent and neutral.

The court hurdle is tried and failed. 6 is more realistic - MPs can be lethal if you threaten their interests. Unlike Aukot fool BBI does not seriously gut their numbers or privileges. Parliamentary make them kings. Region- / tribalism is more likely to play out here with most non-Gema supporting while Gema and Kalenjin opppose. I don't see Cheptumo-Wahome managing to control that justice committee... it very diverse and pro-BBI as is the rest of the floor. It flop in one chamber and go to referendum regardless of the other chamber. 2020 alone is enough for referendum..  Ruto surrender or get dog beating - then he face the jaggernaut that has been terrifying him. Uhuru-Raila vs Ruto-Kiunjuri

Tangatanga will face nyahunyo as we already see with Kuria case, Sen Kihika barred from Uhuru meeting,  Ruto mini-SH eviction, Echesa Mumias meeting cancelled, Wa Iria has warned Nyoro and Wahome about disrespecting Uhuru in his county. But otherwise there is nothing life and death there for Uhuru to kill folks. BBI is popular - seem Nyanza, Luhya, Kamba, Coast are gone. Maa and Samburu are mountain for Ruto. It mere his own Kalenjin and the Kikuyu that are being worked on.

I am not sure how practical it is for :-

1) Pro-BBI team to meet and agree on BBI 2.0 - I know you think they will buy you 'genius' ideas but nothing suggest they would. The team just got gazetted. Let assume they will take the six months - to do another round of pretend data/views collections - to come up with 'New Consensus' document or Constitutional Amendment Bill.
 
Risk No 1 for BBI 2.0: Our judiciary could throw a wedge on that - our judiciary is free for all - some are fiercely independent - some are corrupt - Uhuru certainly has no control that is why his election was annuled and he is not seeing eye to eye with JSC & Maraga.

2) Then assume we Robina Constitutional Amendment Bill ready for signature collections in Mid June - and Kibicho deploys provincial administration to collect 1M signatures - in a month.

Risk: Judiciary could stop or declare such signature collections null and void.

3) Then IEBC whose jobs are on the line - are suppose to take 3 months - to verify. You cannot squeeze IEBC time on that.

Risk: IEBC could reject the signatures like they did to OKOA or the process could end up in court.

4) Let also assume Uhuru's manages to convince Ichungwa and parliament to add referendum budget for IEBC.

Risk : Parliament might refuse to find budget for uncontested referendum.

----We are now in 2021 --- election campaigns are catching up fire --------------- Uhuru is now officially a lame duck.

5) Let also assume that IEBC verify the signatures - and now counties are given 3 months to deliver their verdict to IEBC.

Risk : 24 counties could fail to ratify this or well judicial fight.

6) IEBC submit the bill to senate and parliament. Parliament either passes or oppose or sits on.

Risk : Parliament sitting on bill. Duale only wants to be the PM under Ruto presidency - he knows anything else is a pipe dream.

7) IEBC to conduct the referendum and we go for yes and no.

Risk ; IEBC has not funding.

: Referendum results are contested - judiciary either accepts or annuls.

Bottomline; For Uhuru to undo the constitutional limits he will be killing a lot more people.

BBI 2.0 remain the big card yes. From endless praises of the process in Jan 2020 Uhuru seem very determined. Taskforce was extended and Raila is onto the legwork. It laughable to claim Raila-Uhuru combo would have any difficulty fast-tracking the process - 1m signatures (joke), IEBC (joke), 24 counties (joke), parliament (joke). MPs are Judases who only care about their interest as you saw Duale back parliamentary and desert Ruto in the hour of need. Parliamentary is very hard to beat in non-GEMA. With Speaker Muturi and the minority leaders and maybe even Duale it impossible to block or "sit" on the bill. In any case you don't even need numbers just a rejection and it roll over to referendum. Tough luck beating parliamentary and more devolution on  the ground.

Kiunjuri and GEMA - Uhuru looks ready to persecute Tangatanga and keep them out of Mt Kenya. Look at Kuria lock-up and Susan Kihika in Nax. From the warnings of Kinyanjui and wa Iria about folks disrespecting Uhuru will not be allowed free reign in the mountain... it seem Tangatamga will face it rough. It very easy to kick Ruto and Kiunjuri out of GEMA especially Kikuyu. Now with all the goodies for farmers you see it will be hard to sell Ruto when Nyoro and Kuria are physically barred from holding rallies. Uhuru seem ruthless Moi-Jomo not lame Kibaki - I think you have mistook his silence before for weakness.

Jubilee & power levers - Uhuru has the GoK machinery yes. He also control judges through intimidation when push come to shove. Presidential run-off comes to mind - they brazenly executed Philomena Muilu driver and ensured there was no quorum. Judiciary is only independent when there is no dirty war. But a determined PORK can manipulate them with his NIS and other tools. Parliament you can save it please - MP allegiance depends on interests. In the case of BBI/parliamentary Ruto is in the minority. Jubilee Party of course is a conundrum. PORK has the muscle to either block the polls or mess with them altogether by forcing his guys in. This Imperial PORK can do anything... see all these intimidated governors have all lined up behind BBI. If he can lock DPORK out of his official residence - what difficult about kicking him out of the party? Ironially it is reforming this same Almighty PORK tha you vehemently oppose? It self- defeating.

Uhuru will likely enter a coalition with Raila and Kalonzos/Mdvd crew as Party Leader - ahead of 2022 before or after referendum - and Ruto has no shortage of choices for party. Tanga Tanga Party, United Green Movement, name it. Problem is against Uhuru-for-PM and Raila running circles in non-GEMA - it will be a mountain for him.

What Nyahunyo can he really unleash when he is becoming lame-duck everyday. Maybe he unleashes an assassination squad otherwise as long as the GEMA people are anti-Raila he is wasting time, energy and strategy. I think Kiunjuri need to take war to him now. As for Lee - he knows his time is up - and Kihika daughter will sweep the floor with him & Mbugua. Nakuru is the const you want to least annoy Ruto because Kalenjin makes nearly 40% of the vote (if not more).

As of now Uhuru has executive authority - Ruto has parliament - and Judiciary is out there. Ruto has the Jubilee party and majority support of Jubilee members.Anyway let see first how Jubilee elections will go. Then we get BBI 2.0. And then we take it from there.

Ruto best strategy is to bid time - to survive 2020 - and then 2021 it full campaign mode - and Uhuru will be forgotten - as lame-duck failure (farmers failure is a shadow because his big 4 is becoming a BIG JOKE) - as Raila get blamed for messing up Jubilee and hustler narrative is unleashed.

Ruto just need to ensure the constitution is not amended (increasingly becoming impossible - considering the timelines needed to come up with new constitution - have BBI2.0 come up with executive pm in parliamentary system - we can live with that , collect 1m signatures, have the signatures verified by IEBC, have the bill prepared approved in 24 counties, have it go to parliament for a vote (or to be sat on) - both houses, have it frustrated by judicial injunctions along the way with Omtaha already on it, have IEBC funded to conduct the referendum)-

Ruto should avoid attacking Uhuru directly - Just deflect and attack Raila. Continue with shadow boxing - until Uhuru makes it clear - via constitutional referendum  that he is in the ring - and then Ruto can stop pulling punches.

[RV Pundit]

Robina,No need to flog the dead horse but when BBI changes & get passed we can debate.The biggest and only nyahunyo a political type fears is from the ground..not Kibicho.Arresting them make them more popular.Moses kuriais good example of guy who went all over the map before eventually retreating back to Jubilee Ruto camp.The same is true for most mt Kenya or jubilee leadership... selling Raila is quickest way to political Oblivion.In entire Jubilee it's probably only Waiguru who has that suicidal naivety. You want to lose elections in 2022 in Jubilee zone...back Raila.Ruto has played this well..by avoiding a confrontation with Uhuru...they will get desperate but Ruto will not drop the ball yet.Uhuru unpopularity is not going to be fixed by 30b bribe to Farmers...it got nothing to do with tea or milk...it got everything to do with handshake n BBI.Uhuru with central leaders spend decades planting Raila is evil seeds in central and cannot like Moi did turn 360 & embrace the enemy ( for moi GEMA).The biggest nyahunyo Uhuru will receive will come from GEMA populace...he cannot possibly arrest 10m people.

[Nefertiti]

Self- serving analysis as always. Uhuru and Gema are clever enough to play both Raila and Ruto - they are doing it right now. So long as he gets Exec PM - which he will easily do with GoK and non-Gema rivalry - he will pit them again post-2022. Assume Uhuru is Exec PM in coalition with Raila as ceremonial PORK. If Raila start NARC tantrums - his crew get sacked and some other guys get in - including greedy vengeful Ruto. Kibaki big failure was he didn't divide-n-rule LDP/Kanu.

Of course we know how long the non-Gema coalition lasted - before Ruto demanded DPM and all big positions.

I doubt Uhuru can trust Raila to be PORK - because trust me if he was to short-change Ruto - Ruto will also short-change him - and only beneficiary will be Raila.

In this game - ignore the pawns and focus on the main movers
1) Raila
2) Uhuru
3) Ruto

Each roughly control anything 25-30% of the national total votes directly without a coalition partner.

Now if Uhuru ditches Ruto - Ruto also goes to Raila to exact his revenge - and Raila wins - and rule the way he wants - with Executive Power - I don't think Raila just want to be ceremonial PORK.

In my view Raila is scare-crow that Uhuru is using not steal alone or monopolize power now - he is playing both Raila and Ruto so he can spend the next five years linning up his pockets - and then go home - with handsome retirement package.

He knows very well the hue & cry that will great any suggestion to extend power, the impossibility of wielding such power with Raila (and Ruto) and finally he is not politically gifted to pull such moves. Ruto and Raila could definitely pull a extension of power - but you cannot use prov administration or security to do that.

That is why people close to him like Matiangi - are trying to position themselves to be the future PMs. They know very well Uhuru is going home.

And as long as Uhuru is going home - and Ruto is facing Raila - it will be easy game.

Anyway let BBI square them circles first.

[Nefertiti]

In politics if everyone thinks you're so clever - you're in fact a fool. It took Raila many years to learn this. I doubt Ruto will ever get it. The meek, cowardly, humble Moi, Kibaki then Uhuru got in before the rubble rousers - Jaramogi, Matiba, Raila Ruto.

1. Never outshine the master
3. Conceal your intentions
4. Always say less than necessary

[RV Pundit]

Self- serving analysis as always. Uhuru and Gema are clever enough to play both Raila and Ruto - they are doing it right now. So long as he gets Exec PM - which he will easily do with GoK and non-Gema rivalry - he will pit them again post-2022. Assume Uhuru is Exec PM in coalition with Raila as ceremonial PORK. If Raila start NARC tantrums - his crew get sacked and some other guys get in - including greedy vengeful Ruto. Kibaki big failure was he didn't divide-n-rule LDP/Kanu.

Of course we know how long the non-Gema coalition lasted - before Ruto demanded DPM and all big positions.

I doubt Uhuru can trust Raila to be PORK - because trust me if he was to short-change Ruto - Ruto will also short-change him - and only beneficiary will be Raila.

In this game - ignore the pawns and focus on the main movers
1) Raila
2) Uhuru
3) Ruto

Each roughly control anything 25-30% of the national total votes directly without a coalition partner.

Now if Uhuru ditches Ruto - Ruto also goes to Raila to exact his revenge - and Raila wins - and rule the way he wants - with Executive Power - I don't think Raila just want to be ceremonial PORK.

In my view Raila is scare-crow that Uhuru is using not steal alone or monopolize power now - he is playing both Raila and Ruto so he can spend the next five years linning up his pockets - and then go home - with handsome retirement package.

He knows very well the hue & cry that will great any suggestion to extend power, the impossibility of wielding such power with Raila (and Ruto) and finally he is not politically gifted to pull such moves. Ruto and Raila could definitely pull a extension of power - but you cannot use prov administration or security to do that.

That is why people close to him like Matiangi - are trying to position themselves to be the future PMs. They know very well Uhuru is going home.

And as long as Uhuru is going home - and Ruto is facing Raila - it will be easy game.

Anyway let BBI square them circles first.

All that depends on wording of your hypothetical BBI 2.0.Typically the president is allowed to dissolve the cabinet.In any case Uhuru as pm would be toppled via simple majority.Anyway this game is for Uhuru to make the first move..it either he picks Raila or Ruto...then we proceed from there.

[RV Pundit]

In politics if everyone thinks you're so clever - you're in fact a fool. It took Raila many years to learn this. I doubt Ruto will ever get it. The meek, cowardly, humble Moi, Kibaki then Uhuru got in before the rubble rousers - Jaramogi, Matiba, Raila Ruto.

1. Never outshine the master
3. Conceal your intentions
4. Always say less than necessary

There you go with usual subjective analysis.Uhuru for example became pork by making a deal with Ruto... otherwise Kibaki was with maDVD.There are no rules otherwise many would be pork including Kalonzo the meek one.The only rule of the game is to be strategic, tactical, cunning and nimble.Most important you have to realize nobody will make your pork..you need to invest your time, money( a lot of it), energy and bit of luck to build & grow your political base.

[Nefertiti]

Robina - and seem you have a lot of reconcilliation to do with Uhuru - before unleashing BBI 2.0

Another source said the President said he was still committed to one-man, one-vote, one-shilling, meaning that he still prefers a presidential system.

That is doublespeak for "I will be Exec PM"... so long as he is running again there will be overhaul of the system. Why do you think he appends "one shilling" if not to mock Kioni and Tangatanga?

It seems pretty obvious what kamwana's intentions are.  At a minimum, given the way he has been mistreating the hustler, it's naive to think he plans to hand over the instruments of state to him(yes, Presidential elections are fake in Kenya).  He does not.

Kamwana seems ready to smoothen the way for Babu should he fail to hang on for himself. This determination was fueled by Ruto's scorn and backstabbing especially in his backyard. Uhuru and Mama Ngina are very bitter and vindictive. They will sell out Gema to punish Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

Robina - and seem you have a lot of reconcilliation to do with Uhuru - before unleashing BBI 2.0

Another source said the President said he was still committed to one-man, one-vote, one-shilling, meaning that he still prefers a presidential system.

That is doublespeak for "I will be Exec PM"... so long as he is running again there will be overhaul of the system. Why do you think he appends "one shilling" if not to mock Kioni and Tangatanga?

It seems pretty obvious what kamwana's intentions are.  At a minimum, given the way he has been mistreating the hustler, it's naive to think he plans to hand over the instruments of state to him(yes, Presidential elections are fake in Kenya).  He does not.

Kamwana seems ready to smoothen the way for Babu should he fail to hang on for himself. This determination was fueled by Ruto's scorn and backstabbing especially in his backyard. Uhuru and Mama Ngina are very bitter and vindictive. They will sell out Gema to punish Ruto.

Ruto saved Jubilee after Tuju & Murathe bungled the nomination.Ruto had to literally sleep in Pangani for 3 days.The sore losers from mt Kenya went independent and we're all whipped except for Jungle of Thika and Isaac Mwaura.The haven't learnt nothing except for kabogo..the rest are still blaming Ruto. Uhuru main beef with Ruto is power sharing & the feeling Ruto outstole him in the first regime.After snatching SGR from Wanjigi mouth Uhuru he drank himself silly only for Ruto to take 10% of development budget for 5yrs... monitoring everything item above 500m..I believe he got NSIS report that showed Ruto was nearly matching Uhuru in landholding and other assets.Can Uhuru or mt Kenya trust Raila..hell No No.You know Ruto is interested in stealing but has no revenge mission like Raila...Raila is not interested in making money...he is interested in righting the wrongs that have been visited on odingas n Luis.

[Nefertiti]

I am not sure what makes Ruto more trustworthy than Raila. The Mt Kenya situation is caused by years of anti-Raila propaganda which can easily be done to Ruto and is already underway. Between now, through BBI referendum and 2022 Ruto will supplant Raila as kimündü the Kikuyu-evicting ogre. There is ample material and history for that.

Objectively,
1. Ruto backstabbing is worse than Raila. He has a long history of Chesire, Saina, Jirongo, Mutula Snr, Moi,  Raila, Uhuru and litany of betrayals
2. Kalenjin are genocidal. If you fall out with Luo you merely get fired or stone throwing, noone dies
3. Raila is on the clock so he is more likely to settle for less than Ruto

[RV Pundit]

Ruto has made it impossible for Uhuru pple to make case against him in GEMA..by smartly refusing to engage...he basically focuses on Raila and even the media..accuses Raila of betwitching Uhuru using Enugu spirit.The other part of course is Ruto has 1m kikuyu diaspora as his hostage.This time round GEMA is truly cornered.Imagine having to choose btw Raila with huge axe and Ruto holding your people under hostage.Ruto is offering DPORk n 50-50 in a surebet jubilee gov.Raila is offering a non existent executive PM.Raila has no history of honouring his deals...Ruto has worked with GEMA for all these years.The immediate concern for GEMA is of course to maintain peace in rift valley...and that they can only do by honouring their commitment to Ruto otherwise we are back to 2007.