What if scenarios.
GEMA play 50-50.
GEMA turn out low - like all indicators suggest.
GEMA became useless as political force - just like Luhyas or Gusii normally are - for dividing their vote equally.
GEMA right now is maybe 25 percent joggernaut - if low turnout happens.
But if they were to split the vote equally to 12.5 to 12.5 - you cannot win with it -
it become 50:50 if Raila can miraclously gain 50 percent of GEM
So Ruto has to watch for Uhuru play and Kalonzo
If Uhuru decide to play spoiler like he did last year in Mululu by openly saying Kabila mbili sijui nini
And Mt kenya - half listen to him
Then Uhuru sacrifices DPORK in Mt kenya - for Kalonzo.
Then Ruto could lose 30 percent of Ukambani....to something back to 10-20 percent.
Of course nothing suggest Mt Kenya will bolt from UDA or Ruto in such numbers.
That is the Plan A.
But Ruto always had MaDVD's Luhya has his Plan B.
Now question would be - what would Mt Kenya do if Ruto decide to choose MADVD - and Raila decide to choose Kalonzo.
They wont have any serious candidate to fallback to.
Will they quit Ruto camp? Are they in Ruto camp for DPORK?
Would Luhya move from 65 percent in Ruto camp to say 90 percent if maDVD was DPORK?
Like its likely Kambas could if Kalonzo nicks DPOR?
If you ask me - GEMA are more reliable - but Ruto has to watch for Uhuru rough and dirty games.
Or another what-if Ruto offers Kalonzo DPORK
![smiley :)](https://nipate.net/Smileys/fantasticsmileys/smiley3.gif)
Will GEMA go to Raila's Azimio - it will be technically dead.
Bottomline - GEMA have weaken themselves through disunity - 10 parties - 10 chiefs - no indians.
I repeat umpteenth time with the current constituion . No one can win the Presidency without GEMA support. The Presidential candidate being a Geman or Non Geman.