Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 27, 2020, 09:33:40 PM
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From the star...
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2020-08-27-ruto-to-dump-hijacked-jubilee-party-ahead-of-2022-polls/
Ruto is now live on Citizen TV
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Ruto just describing Uhuru or Jubilee 2.0 a failure.
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Ruto clearly articulated Jubilees II failure is beause of the handshake and Pandemic.
The real war is the referendumn and the way Ruto is talking he is going to oppose it. He dismissed DP and CS being elected members of parliament.
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Battle royale loading - I don't think Uhuru understand just how tenacious Ruto can be once he has made his mind. It clear he has made his mind to fight Uhuru and Raila.
Itabidi Uhuru awache pombe otherwise ICC 2 is loading - best case scenario - a civil war is worst case scenario.
Ruto clearly articulated Jubilees II failure is beause of the handshake and Pandemic.
The real war is the referendumn and the way Ruto is talking he is going to oppose it. He dismissed DP and CS being elected members of parliament.
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Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?
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My high IQ is telling me a civil war is probable because Uhuru has gov and Ruto has warriors :) - Ruto unless assisinated is not the guy to be cowed.
We were just few days from one in 2007. In Nakuru the police basically split along tribes - and army from Lanet had to be called. Now assume the army split.
A repeat of 2007 will be worse.
My high IQ allows me to predict good and bad things.
There is nothing special about Kenya - that South Sudan or Uganda or Rwanda or Somali - didn't have - you have two powerful leaders engaged in death fight - and country will probably die with it.
This is like Machar-Kiir fight - that put south sudan into a civil war.
The next phase is civil war in gov circles, security forces and the work.
Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?
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One would imagine high IQ will be deployed to preventing civil war. For example using genius to ensure your man gets a clean path to power. Instead of predicting civil war day in day out. Its a free world though.
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Exactly what I am doing. You cannot prevent what you don't know. My job is to be a whistle blow - to warn you - that based on my high IQ - we are entering a very dangerous phase. The fallout btw Uhuru and Ruto is more like Kiir-Machar. The only thing holding the pact is GEMA nation. If GEMA picks Uhuru - Ruto and his people - will move to the next phase. Now 2007 is on everyone mind - so we will have serious arm race - as people won't just sit as ducks.
Kiir had gov - Machar had war-hardened Nuers. I predicted immediately that it was going to be a lose-lose. If Kiir had listened - he would have saved South Sudan. He took 5yrs to understand that he cannot subdue Nuers. Eventually he sued for peace and negotiated. Machar is back as VP.
Now btw Uhuru and Ruto - they either negotiate now - or they will negotiate later with many deaths and suffering - and economy gone.
One would imagine high IQ will be deployed to preventing civil war. For example using genius to ensure your man gets a clean path to power. Instead of predicting civil war day in day out. Its a free world though.
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Battle royale loading - I don't think Uhuru understand just how tenacious Ruto can be once he has made his mind. It clear he has made his mind to fight Uhuru and Raila.
Itabidi Uhuru awache pombe otherwise ICC 2 is loading - best case scenario - a civil war is worst case scenario.
Ruto clearly articulated Jubilees II failure is beause of the handshake and Pandemic.
The real war is the referendumn and the way Ruto is talking he is going to oppose it. He dismissed DP and CS being elected members of parliament.
Uhuru is the making of Ruto, from 2002 , 2005,2013 and 2017. Uhuru and Ruto know each other well.
Its evident Uhuru after the repear of 2017 elections and the swearing in of Raila he wanted to tame Raila and an opportunity came theough handshake. Ruto was not for it and whatever he predicted the handshake will bring is coming to pass.
Ruto is a very sharp politician and if you followed the interview and listened carefully he knows what he is facing one is the referendumn and secondly its Raila for 2022.
He mentioned he is going to try and resolve the issues with Murathe if unable he will bolt out.
There has be no mention of Gema nor any civil war. If we go back to 2007 P.E.V .It was already predicted by 2004 that incase of any unrests the police force and army would be partisan because it was tribalised and the majority were Kalenjins and their sympathisers . 2022 is 15 years later meaning the dynamics arw different in the army police etc . Where as Kagame was suprised why Kibaki didnt unleash the army to quell the violence in 2022 the army is more mordenized and well balanced .It might actually be used incase there is any form of violence
Having said that, Ruto is confident he will be able to win the referendumn and the elections. In the interview he sounded as a person who is intouch with the ground. Peoples concern are job losses and livelyhoods.
The concern now should be the electral body ,ODM already want it to be overhauled , if they get an opportunity to influence the commisioners who will be picked this might lead to chaos as witnessed in some countries in West Africa
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Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?
Hie is still on the "kulipa deni" mindset and thats why I always remind him that he is not Ruto.
If he listened to Ruto very well and could read between the lines , Rutos strategy is simply potray Jubilee I was better than Jubilee Ii because of handshake. Clean up Jubilee and if not able too form another party at an opportune time.
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My high IQ is telling me a civil war is probable because Uhuru has gov and Ruto has warriors :) - Ruto unless assisinated is not the guy to be cowed.
We were just few days from one in 2007. In Nakuru the police basically split along tribes - and army from Lanet had to be called. Now assume the army split.
A repeat of 2007 will be worse.
My high IQ allows me to predict good and bad things.
There is nothing special about Kenya - that South Sudan or Uganda or Rwanda or Somali - didn't have - you have two powerful leaders engaged in death fight - and country will probably die with it.
This is like Machar-Kiir fight - that put south sudan into a civil war.
The next phase is civil war in gov circles, security forces and the work.
Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?
Rutos war is not with Uhuru but with Raila. Your so called IQ cant even grasp this from the interview. With such insuations you are partly the reason Ruto found himself in ICC , such little talk takes their own form of life.
Actually do you know this was one tactic ODM teied using in 2013 elecrions to divide TNA and URP. They even went ahead and hired journalists and fake warriors to stage manage a war. Luckily Kenyams were clever than that .
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Ruto from what I am hearing was deflated and seemed to be in pain to a point he had watery eyes. He can't take the humiliation anymore. The battle for kalenjins is going to be an uphill one. I do notxthink kalenjins will best served by a war. They ought to figure out how to work with others better. Ruto needs to learn how to build coalitions. He will get there by 2032. He is still young
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Kibaki biggest mistake was firing odm allied ministers from cabinet after losing 2005 referendum. He should have been magnanimous in defeat and negotiated with to adopt Bomas draft with a few changes. He make a mistake that cost him 2007 elections and caused pev.
If ruto can win a referendum then he would stop raila and Uhuru-Raila. I see Uhuru-Raila not going for referendum but very soft amendments that will appeal to the centrist and liberal side of jubilee. This amendments will be thru parliament and if they do not pass they will be a campaign platform..if this happens 2022 will be the referendum for or against these amendments. This will deflate the chance for a possible violent confrontation btw Uhuru-Raila supporters and militant kales..
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Ruto from what I am hearing was deflated and seemed to be in pain to a point he had watery eyes. He can't take the humiliation anymore. The battle for kalenjins is going to be an uphill one. I do notxthink kalenjins will best served by a war. They ought to figure out how to work with others better. Ruto needs to learn how to build coalitions. He will get there by 2032. He is still young
I don't like the guy for reasons other than his tribe. It is his ambition to be PORK at any cost that worries me. Usually folks like that turn into maniacal dictators once in power. We already know he has a voracious for looting public money. Let Uhuru be the last GEMA president, tumechoka na watsapere, and let Moi be the last Kalenjin leader. We need new tribe to be at the helm. I don't care how he gets there, I want Raila Odinga to be our president in 2022.
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Politics is a dirty game. Prepare for rough two years. You dont shift blame to me. I am as worried and angry as you're but I cannot lie to you that Uhuru and Ruto fallout is MAD - mutually assured destruction. This I said in 2018 - and will say now.
The only man smilling ear to ear is Raila and KenyaPlato. Raila has destroyed Jubilee. Uhuru is not even aware - he is concentrated on civil war with Ruto.
I don't why you don't get basic stuff. Ruto and Uhuru current war is a civil war at the leadership level. Depending on how it play out - it will go to the streets - and all over. I wouldn't bet on kenya security forces - too tribalized - including the army.
Unlike you - I am brutally honest. I don't sugar coat stuff and I don't get intimidated - I speak my mind.
Uhuru is the making of Ruto, from 2002 , 2005,2013 and 2017. Uhuru and Ruto know each other well.
Its evident Uhuru after the repear of 2017 elections and the swearing in of Raila he wanted to tame Raila and an opportunity came theough handshake. Ruto was not for it and whatever he predicted the handshake will bring is coming to pass.
Ruto is a very sharp politician and if you followed the interview and listened carefully he knows what he is facing one is the referendumn and secondly its Raila for 2022.
He mentioned he is going to try and resolve the issues with Murathe if unable he will bolt out.
There has be no mention of Gema nor any civil war. If we go back to 2007 P.E.V .It was already predicted by 2004 that incase of any unrests the police force and army would be partisan because it was tribalised and the majority were Kalenjins and their sympathisers . 2022 is 15 years later meaning the dynamics arw different in the army police etc . Where as Kagame was suprised why Kibaki didnt unleash the army to quell the violence in 2022 the army is more mordenized and well balanced .It might actually be used incase there is any form of violence
Having said that, Ruto is confident he will be able to win the referendumn and the elections. In the interview he sounded as a person who is intouch with the ground. Peoples concern are job losses and livelyhoods.
The concern now should be the electral body ,ODM already want it to be overhauled , if they get an opportunity to influence the commisioners who will be picked this might lead to chaos as witnessed in some countries in West Africa
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Let see what Uhuru will do now that Ruto has thrown the gauntlet. Will he fire Ruto and his half the cabinet. And that will again plant the seed for next conflict.
Most likely because he is receiving low grade advice - he will try to go for Ruto neck (DPORK) and fire anybody associated with him - and he will definitely run to GEMA and try to win them back.
Kibaki biggest mistake was firing odm allied ministers from cabinet after losing 2005 referendum. He should have been magnanimous in defeat and negotiated with to adopt Bomas draft with a few changes. He make a mistake that cost him 2007 elections and caused pev.
If ruto can win a referendum then he would stop raila and Uhuru-Raila. I see Uhuru-Raila not going for referendum but very soft amendments that will appeal to the centrist and liberal side of jubilee. This amendments will be thru parliament and if they do not pass they will be a campaign platform..if this happens 2022 will be the referendum for or against these amendments. This will deflate the chance for a possible violent confrontation btw Uhuru-Raila supporters and militant kales..
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Another thing to ponder uhuru is on course to evict 100,000 kalenjin from mau, burn all their investment and basically create the frontline warriors for the next conflict with nothing to lose.Mau narok 60k.mau nakuru 40k.They see this as nothing but extension of uhuru war with Ruto.Natembeya is on his way to ICC...if he was smart he ask for transfer
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It's good you are coming to terms with reality that Mobutu cannot win 2022 elections.Only route for him is war.kalenjins alone cannot cause civil strife,arrows cannot match bullets.
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It's good you are coming to terms with reality that Mobutu cannot win 2022 elections.Only route for him is war.kalenjins alone cannot cause civil strife,arrows cannot match bullets.
You're going too fast...Ruto remain the guy to beat.. it just wont be as easy
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Ruto from what I am hearing was deflated and seemed to be in pain to a point he had watery eyes. He can't take the humiliation anymore. The battle for kalenjins is going to be an uphill one. I do notxthink kalenjins will best served by a war. They ought to figure out how to work with others better. Ruto needs to learn how to build coalitions. He will get there by 2032. He is still young
Ruto perfomed very well , One thing he is gifted with just like Uhuru is that he has good oratory skills , a quick thinker and most importantly can articulate issues . If you really cared to listen to the interview it was not about tribal politics , nop it was about his role in Jubilee I , BBI /Handshake politics and finally party politics . There was nothing about Mt Kenya , Rift valley etc .
In regards to Kalenjins working with others let us be objective on that matter , from the point of history it is one region who have proven to be team players specifically speaking of Ruto in 2002 they teamed with Uhuru , 2007 teamed with Raila ,2013 ,2017 with Uhuru .The reason why Jubilee I achieved as much as compared to Jubilee II is because of the team work Uhuru got from Ruto and Rift Valley in general. In retrospect Ruto and Riftvalley could have opted to go the route of Raila and Nyanza post 2002 GE aka NARC wars or post 2007 G.E. Grand Coalition wars . The likes of RV Pundit - Alfred Keter and Zachary Cheruiyot were pushing for that but Ruto opted not to take that route . In the second term as Ruto mentioned in the interview Uhuru decided to change the style of management and opted Ruto to fall on the background as he clearly articulated for Uhuru to form his legacy and he is okei with it as he knows how to play his position . No compare that with Raila , as mentioned earlier , He betrayed MOI in 2002 , Kibaki in 2003-2012 , Kalonzo and Mudavadi by 2018 . Remember the pentagon , remember how Nyanza Mps were a nusance to Kibaki and Kalonzo ?
When Ruto is making friends you are the first to claim he is on an early campaign spree . If it is matter coalition , Ruto has been the best as his coalition of URP and TNA was able to win 2013 elections stood the test of time and formed Jubilee parts a coalition of more than 12 parties . Now compare that with ODM ,first Raila was reluctant to form a coalition with Kalonzo , it took the unity of Uhuru and Ruto and change of post/pre election coalition laws for Raila to realize he couldnt go alone in 2013 elections . after losing he promptly folded CORD coalition a repeat happened with NASA .
After Railas dissapointment of 2013 elections people who cared and were close to him were for the opinion , he should throw in the towel , I believe they were right because his supporters like you only drive him to lose each and every endovour . There is no way Raila can defeat Ruto in 2022 elections . 2013 and 2017 election results will be like a baby . The thrashing he will receive you will be astonished
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[quote ] a civil war is worst case scenario[/quote]
Pundit you are sick.
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Okay, a president and his deputy fighting, is already a civil war.
You're living in a fools paradise.
In Nakuru District,
according to then PPO Wasike, the sheer numbers of the marauding gangs
heavily outnumbered the police and the Army was called in to assist in policing.
The Commission heard that there were very few police officers in the troubled
areas of Kambarari, Kaptembwa, Milima and Kiti, and that those who sought
help from police stations were told to resort to self help. The Commission was
further told that there were more than 100 idle police officers in their residential
houses within the town at Kasarani and thereafter they would be hired privately
at a going rate of between Ksh. 1,000 to Ksh. 2,000 per officer to assist with the
rescue of besieged people to safer areas.
[quote ] a civil war is worst case scenario.
Pundit you are sick.
[/quote]
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Ruto from what I am hearing was deflated and seemed to be in pain to a point he had watery eyes. He can't take the humiliation anymore. The battle for kalenjins is going to be an uphill one. I do notxthink kalenjins will best served by a war. They ought to figure out how to work with others better. Ruto needs to learn how to build coalitions. He will get there by 2032. He is still young
I don't like the guy for reasons other than his tribe. It is his ambition to be PORK at any cost that worries me. Usually folks like that turn into maniacal dictators once in power. We already know he has a voracious for looting public money. Let Uhuru be the last GEMA president, tumechoka na watsapere, and let Moi be the last Kalenjin leader. We need new tribe to be at the helm. I don't care how he gets there, I want Raila Odinga to be our president in 2022.
You Raila fanatics are really funny , Whenever you pretend to describe Ruto you actually end up describing Raila .
It is his ambition to be PORK at any cost that worries me
No who between Ruto and Raila wants to become PORK at any cost - Lets go back to History
Raila has vied for Presidency in 1997 ,2007,2013,2017 and now in 2022 a record 4 times and with terrible results - Ruto has never ever vied for PORK his first attempt will be in 2022
After Raila losing in 1997 elections he ran to Moi and folded his party NDP with the hopes MOI will endorse him as KANUs presidential candidate , when this did not happen he switched sides and supported Kibaki with plans of sabotaging and blackmailing him once elections were won .
Come 2007 elections after losing to Kibaki , he instigated a post election violence which almost brought Kenya to its Knees - Now pray tell me is this not wanting power by all means
Post 2013 after losing elections , Raila lead the so called OKOA kenya Maandamano , which sent all electoral commissioners home in the hope he would be able to install his sympathizers and influence 2017 elections
After losing 2017 elections he went to courts and after courts declared a repeat elections he refused to participate , his plans was to discredit the 2017 repeat elections and form another Nusu mkate government luckliy he never got the backing he expected from foreign powers /circles .
Having failed in that he went and swore himself as a president - Isnt this the epitome of becoming "PORK at any cost ", , at a cost of bring anarchy to Kenya , do you know this is called treason .
Now is he is back at it again for 2022 elections - He now want constitution to be amended for it to make it easier for him to ascend to power , now if this is bo what you described as your worry then I dont know . Remember the same constitution he campaigned for and said let it be passed as it is , its good enough - Then he though the constitution had given a direct pass to Presidency
Sometimes it good to be direct , you have indicated you are tired of a Gema Presidency and you hate hate Kalenjin . stick to these points rather than pretending to be philosophical with the choice of your Raila presidency
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Okay, a president and his deputy fighting, is already a civil war.
[quote ] a civil war is worst case scenario.
Pundit you are sick.
[/quote]
NO one disagrees even a child in baby class knows that. The problem is you seem to be obsessed with civil war and conflicts. There is no winner in Such most affected by the way will be Kalenjin then Kikuyu. Stop negative energy.
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:*I am not obsessed. I made my comment - and your scared titties made a meal out of it. Kenya is not special. Ethiopia,Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Congo, Rwanda and Burundi have been here..only Tanzania and Kenya have spared.
If Uhuru is not wise (like Raila) - he will make kenya join the rest.
NO one disagrees even a child in baby class knows that. The problem is you seem to be obsessed with civil war and conflicts. There is no winner in Such most affected by the way will be Kalenjin then Kikuyu. Stop negative energy.
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Kibaki biggest mistake was firing odm allied ministers from cabinet after losing 2005 referendum. He should have been magnanimous in defeat and negotiated with to adopt Bomas draft with a few changes. He make a mistake that cost him 2007 elections and caused pev.
If ruto can win a referendum then he would stop raila and Uhuru-Raila. I see Uhuru-Raila not going for referendum but very soft amendments that will appeal to the centrist and liberal side of jubilee. This amendments will be thru parliament and if they do not pass they will be a campaign platform..if this happens 2022 will be the referendum for or against these amendments. This will deflate the chance for a possible violent confrontation btw Uhuru-Raila supporters and militant kales..
Unlike Uhuru who has been known to make bad decisions only to rethink later - Kibaki did the right thing by firing LDP members after 2005 referendum actually he should not have allowed them to NAKs negotiating table prior to 2002 G.E. . Kibaki , Wamalwa and Ngilu had the right formulae under the previous constiruion which only required a simple majority and 25% in provinces to win the presidency -Raila and his group would have come in a distant third , . Railas plan was to overthrow Kibaki , they didnt believe in Kibaki , Raila and his sympathizers saw themselves as the reformists and their time had come to govern Kenya .Essentially time for them to eat . For them Kibaki had already eaten for 30 plus years .
According to Uhuru moves its evident he is gearing the country for a referendum , it beats all common sense to open up the country when Covid Cases were rising and deaths were rising ,when a month earlier he has shown all indications that as long as there was no improvement in the trajectory of covid cases the country would continue the same path of curfew and cessation of movement . I gather from their plans they want the Referendum as early as Dec2020 and latest March2021 .
Raila does not want to go to 2022 elections without a referendum and his worst fear is if 2022 elections are tied with the referendumn. One thing they are not factoring is there is a likely possibilty they are going to lose the referendum . Further Uhuru also thinks he might play Kibaki 2010 where he was able to whip The VP kalonzo . Deputy Premier Uhuru and Minister like Michuki to back him by threatening them with sacking from their posts(Remember Kalonzo and Uhuru had to put a paid up advertisement in National newspapers voicing their support for constitution . Even that time it didnt work out with Ruto he was eventually reshuffled to Ministry of Higher Education . Then it worked out for Kalonzo because he though he would inherit Kibakis electorate , for Uhuru he was in the plum Finance Ministry and was cutting deals left and right ,as for Michuki after being abandoned by Kalonzo and Uhuru he had to return to the yes side . Now what is Ruto to lose if he has been kept out of bay from public coffers by the handshakers who are eating like no tomorrow as they know 2022 is approaching . In 2010 Ruto used the referendumn to consolidate Rift Valley vote , the upcomming referendum he will use it to consolidate the Mt Kenya voting block ,then come 2022 Raila fanatics will be saying Kura iliibiwa
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Nowayaha,
1) Kibaki was abandoned en-masse by Mt Kenya immediately Moi endorsed Uhuru. Kiambu and a whole 1/3 of GEMA still voted for Uhuru and KANU in the main election.
2) Raila saved Kibaki - otherwise KANU would have won - with possibly Nyachae-Raila and Kibaki-Wamalwa distant third. Ngilu and Wamalwa were welterweight. Raila did heavy lifting after Kibaki got indisposed with road accident.
3) Kibaki signed an MOU with LDP. He reneged on it almost immeidately. This is Uhuru 2.0 betrayal of Jubilee and nothing good can come out of it.
4) Kibaki after losing in Bomas - run to Kilifi - and made his own document (BBI style) -and subjected to the referendum - instead of the Bomas draft that had representation of all kenyans.
5) BBI is another kilifi draft - cynical document - it cannot go anywhere without public support - it will be defeated either in parliament or courts or in a referendum - if at all Raila and Uhuru can manage to agree. The current constitution is negotiated document - everyone lost something - and everyone need to get over it - and live with it.
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What I saw yesterday is a man deflated and hopeless,I actually for the first time sympathized with Mobutu,there was a point he almost cried But again,he was warned but he didn't listen,he is not a good student of history,I think his hatred for Raila made him not reason at that time,he was out to revenge.Well,he got the revenge but at what cost?How does he feel that a person and people you supported 4 times are now working with your sworn enemy,indeed it's heartbreaking and sickening to say the least.
Wait a minute,I thought Mobutu was too smart,why did he dissolve his nandi urp,was the deal too good or was it for his own selfish interests,a smart politician does not dissolve his party five years to a general election,never,that was the beginning of the fall.Getting a new outfit with a national appeal now will be a tall order,but we wish him well,we want him on the ballot at all costs,he has to be on ballot by whichever means.
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If Ruto had remained in ODM - he would be like maDVD - abused and name it. Or like Kalonzo derided despite twice standing down for Raila. Uhuru is better man by far.
Now why would Ruto at his young age be deflated and hopeless. The man is just 54yrs - and has achieved a lot.
Ruto took a gamble to form jubilee because he needed to tightly couple with GEMA. The fact that he has survived this long despite Uhuru fighting him for now 3yrs - is testament that his gamble wasn't a bad idea.
Imagine if it was URP-TNA - it would be have been easy to divorce URP - now it's hard for Uhuru - he has party official - but he doesn't party members - otherwise he would have called for elections.
Does Ruto regret Jubilee - of course not - when he had opportunity in Jubilee - he made his mark (and tonnes of money). He still has lots of his guy inside gov.....and remain DPORK as we speak.
What I saw yesterday is a man deflated and hopeless,I actually for the first time sympathized with Mobutu,there was a point he almost cried But again,he was warned but he didn't listen,he is not a good student of history,I think his hatred for Raila made him not reason at that time,he was out to revenge.Well,he got the revenge but at what cost?How does he feel that a person and people you supported 4 times are now working with your sworn enemy,indeed it's heartbreaking and sickening to say the least.
Wait a minute,I thought Mobutu was too smart,why did he dissolve his nandi urp,was the deal too good or was it for his own selfish interests,a smart politician does not dissolve his party five years to a general election,never,that was the beginning of the fall.Getting a new outfit with a national appeal now will be a tall order,but we wish him well,we want him on the ballot at all costs,he has to be on ballot by whichever means.
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So now he is not being abused and chided in jubilee to the extend of being pushed out by a junior party member,????being showed the middle finger by people he helped put in power.Bure kabisa,we are waiting him on ballot.
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Raila was subjected to the same as Kibaki PM- and yet insist to this day - that he is pm.
So now he is not being abused and chided in jubilee to the extend of being pushed out by a junior party member,????being showed the middle finger by people he helped put in power.Bure kabisa,we are waiting him on ballot.
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This stuff is really funny. What happened to "
pipty-pipty fifty-fifty all the way"?
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At least most of you are now recovering from deep depression.
This stuff is really funny. What happened to "pipty-pipty fifty-fifty all the way"?
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Okay, a president and his deputy fighting, is already a civil war.
You're living in a fools paradise.
In Nakuru District,
according to then PPO Wasike, the sheer numbers of the marauding gangs
heavily outnumbered the police and the Army was called in to assist in policing.
The Commission heard that there were very few police officers in the troubled
areas of Kambarari, Kaptembwa, Milima and Kiti, and that those who sought
help from police stations were told to resort to self help. The Commission was
further told that there were more than 100 idle police officers in their residential
houses within the town at Kasarani and thereafter they would be hired privately
at a going rate of between Ksh. 1,000 to Ksh. 2,000 per officer to assist with the
rescue of besieged people to safer areas.
[quote ] a civil war is worst case scenario.
Pundit you are sick.
[/quote]
Pundit I'm sure by now you have seen what's circulating on social media about the post-interview match behind the curtains. Brawns not brain. It's an obsession and it is not good for your man.
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:*I am not obsessed. I made my comment - and your scared titties made a meal out of it. Kenya is not special. Ethiopia,Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Congo, Rwanda and Burundi have been here..only Tanzania and Kenya have spared.
If Uhuru is not wise (like Raila) - he will make kenya join the rest.
NO one disagrees even a child in baby class knows that. The problem is you seem to be obsessed with civil war and conflicts. There is no winner in Such most affected by the way will be Kalenjin then Kikuyu. Stop negative energy.
Pundit I dont have time for your shenanigans and teenage antics, I like to be brief and easily get disoriented in long rumbling speeches you do save that for Robina, as for me I will simply cut you short with my panga.
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There is nothing like Ruto vs Uhuru. Ruto lost that war loooong time ago it's more like Ruto Vs Murathe (junior member of jubilee), a war that he is loosing badly. Soon they will pass him to Wambugu Ngujiri and akina shebesh to finish him off. Civil war in kenya! It ain't happening. In 2007 you had a lot of Kalenjins and Kambas in police force and the military some that has changed alot. It would be suicidal for kalenjins to start tribal clashes when they are isolated. They will be finished before noon na kazi iendelee. Ruto was supposed to be SI unit of worriorhood....what happened?
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Nowayaha,
1) Kibaki was abandoned en-masse by Mt Kenya immediately Moi endorsed Uhuru. Kiambu and a whole 1/3 of GEMA still voted for Uhuru and KANU in the main election.
Bot factual, Only Kiambu & Thika faction of Mt Kenya crossed over to K.AN.U. The rest Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri , Kirinyaga , Laikipia , Nakuru, Muranga , Embu , Tharaka Nithi , Meru and Diaspora stuck with Kibaki and it was a combination of two factors number one being they mistrusted MOI akin to Raila now and the other had been with Kibaki since 1992.
If you know Kiambu politics they almost voted for Charity Ngilu in 1997 because they regarded Kibaki as a weakling most of the people in Kiambu actually voted for MPS and councillors and didnt vote for presidency , hence the reason you would see SDP Mps in Thika and Kiambu and when it came for Presidential votes they were less than the ones polled for MPS one of the reason Kibaki used to claim 97 elections were rigged
Nowayaha,
2) Raila saved Kibaki - otherwise KANU would have won - with possibly Nyachae-Raila and Kibaki-Wamalwa distant third. Ngilu and Wamalwa were welterweight. Raila did heavy lifting after Kibaki got indisposed with road accident.
Between Kibaki and Uhuru , I dont know who would have won , but I was very sure just like in 1997 , Raila would have come No 3. According to the calculations then going by 1997 election results , Kibaki had polled 31% , Wamalwa 8.2% and Ngilu 7.9% totaling 48% against Mois 40% .NAK movement had gained traction even in Coast for the first time Mombasa and Kilifi was tilting towards NAK because of Karisa Maithas influence .
Uhuru would never have won in Coast they just hate simply because of the Kenyatta name.
Nowayaha,
3) Kibaki signed an MOU with LDP. He reneged on it almost immeidately. This is Uhuru 2.0 betrayal of Jubilee and nothing good can come out of it.
What did he renege on ,all NARC members were made Ministers , Raila wanted more than he was entitled to .He was given a very big portfolio as minister of roads and public works , but he used his position to campaign against Kibaki . Raila simply wanted to overthrow Kibaki . from 2003 to 2005 that was a dark era in Kenyan political history where a minister undermined abused and insoboardinated the president . In all honesty Kibaki was focused in ushering a new constitution and highly likely Raila would have been made the new Prime Minister in the new dispesation but he was overzealous
Nowayaha,
4) Kibaki after losing in Bomas - run to Kilifi - and made his own document (BBI style) -and subjected to the referendum - instead of the Bomas draft that had representation of all kenyans.
Now tell me what was the difference between Naivasha talks and Kilifi talks?
Nowayaha,
5) BBI is another kilifi draft - cynical document - it cannot go anywhere without public support - it will be defeated either in parliament or courts or in a referendum - if at all Raila and Uhuru can manage to agree. The current constitution is negotiated document - everyone lost something - and everyone need to get over it - and live with it.
Raila and Uhuru might agree , but people on the ground wont, especially now with Raila calling for reduction of Governors by removal of some County governors and introducing regional governors.
Remember Raila is referencing the regions from Bomas draft which had envisioned 14 regions as below
constitutionnet.org/sites/default/files/TWC%20G-Final%20Report.pdf
Subsequently, the Committee reversed its earlier decisions on the number of
regions and unanimously agreed on fourteen regions namely, Coast, Western,
Nairobi, Central and North Eastern would constitute one region each. Nyanza
and Eastern provinces would have two and four regions respectively. Rift
Valley province would be divided into three regions, namely the North,
Central and South Rift regions.
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What I saw yesterday is a man deflated and hopeless,I actually for the first time sympathized with Mobutu,there was a point he almost cried But again,he was warned but he didn't listen,he is not a good student of history,I think his hatred for Raila made him not reason at that time,he was out to revenge.Well,he got the revenge but at what cost?How does he feel that a person and people you supported 4 times are now working with your sworn enemy,indeed it's heartbreaking and sickening to say the least.
Wait a minute,I thought Mobutu was too smart,why did he dissolve his nandi urp,was the deal too good or was it for his own selfish interests,a smart politician does not dissolve his party five years to a general election,never,that was the beginning of the fall.Getting a new outfit with a national appeal now will be a tall order,but we wish him well,we want him on the ballot at all costs,he has to be on ballot by whichever means.
Ruto was on a mission , apart from revenge he became the Kingpin of Rift valley at ODMs and Railas cost, he further went and became a Deputy President and is oncourse of becoming President by 2022.
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So now he is not being abused and chided in jubilee to the extend of being pushed out by a junior party member,????being showed the middle finger by people he helped put in power.Bure kabisa,we are waiting him on ballot.
This is norm in Poltics , Raila is being abused and chided by junior party members Aisha Jumwa and company from Kilifi and Kwale.
Same can be said of Uhuru by the Sudis , Moses Kuria and Ichungwa
Nothing new go back to Kenyan politics post 2002 era
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https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=3319909874759232&id=100002207572132&set=p.3319909874759232&source=47
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Joe Ageyo cornered the goon about his tantrums in 2007. Were the elections not stolen by the deep state? The chameleon changed colors till the rainbow ran out. Lol
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Joe Ageyo cornered the goon about his tantrums in 2007. Were the elections not stolen by the deep state? The chameleon changed colors till the rainbow ran out. Lol
2007 is buried hatchet..and Ruto dodged it.2007 gave us new constitution and new election laws including a supreme court.That supreme court has annulled an election
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Kenya is 3 beacons. It 2 vs 1 so your boy is on losing side. 2007 was also 2 v 1 so Kibaki had to accede to NARA.
My high IQ is telling me a civil war is probable because Uhuru has gov and Ruto has warriors :) - Ruto unless assisinated is not the guy to be cowed.
We were just few days from one in 2007. In Nakuru the police basically split along tribes - and army from Lanet had to be called. Now assume the army split.
A repeat of 2007 will be worse.
My high IQ allows me to predict good and bad things.
There is nothing special about Kenya - that South Sudan or Uganda or Rwanda or Somali - didn't have - you have two powerful leaders engaged in death fight - and country will probably die with it.
This is like Machar-Kiir fight - that put south sudan into a civil war.
The next phase is civil war in gov circles, security forces and the work.
Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?
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Nowayah,Bomas unravel because of one thing, devolution. Kikuyu were afraid of majimbo..their fears both founded and unfounded. Founded because the 14 region would mean a million kikuyu in RV and Coast that were already unwanted would suffer.They first killed Prof Mbai.Such a shame because Mbai had helped crafted devolution from majimbo or federalism that some wanted.When it backfired they went to kilifi and adopted constitution that mirrored mois 1980s district focus..the current counties and devolution..is a middle ground btw kilifi or gema document and non gema bomas.Raila want Bomas back.But obviously he doesn't know why many differs with it.This constitution is not broken.It breaks if we go to another war and we can fix it
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Kenya is 3 beacons. It 2 vs 1 so your boy is on losing side. 2007 was also 2 v 1 so Kibaki had to accede to NARA.
My high IQ is telling me a civil war is probable because Uhuru has gov and Ruto has warriors :) - Ruto unless assisinated is not the guy to be cowed.
We were just few days from one in 2007. In Nakuru the police basically split along tribes - and army from Lanet had to be called. Now assume the army split.
A repeat of 2007 will be worse.
My high IQ allows me to predict good and bad things.
There is nothing special about Kenya - that South Sudan or Uganda or Rwanda or Somali - didn't have - you have two powerful leaders engaged in death fight - and country will probably die with it.
This is like Machar-Kiir fight - that put south sudan into a
Kenya is 3 beacons. It 2 vs 1 so your boy is on losing side. 2007 was also 2 v 1 so Kibaki had to accede to NARA.
My high IQ is telling me a civil war is probable because Uhuru has gov and Ruto has warriors :) - Ruto unless assisinated is not the guy to be cowed.
We were just few days from one in 2007. In Nakuru the police basically split along tribes - and army from Lanet had to be called. Now assume the army split.
A repeat of 2007 will be worse.
My high IQ allows me to predict good and bad things.
There is nothing special about Kenya - that South Sudan or Uganda or Rwanda or Somali - didn't have - you have two powerful leaders engaged in death fight - and country will probably die with it.
This is like Machar-Kiir fight - that put south sudan into a civil war.
The next phase is civil war in gov circles, security forces and the work.
Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?
Robina I think Raila is going down and Ruto is very strong. The next two years will be critical.Raila would be smiling if it was for small mistake of destroying NASA and his support base.Raila every election if you go by ODM fortunes has been losing support.He had Luos, mijikendas and southern Luhyas.I think he in the process of losing coast.That leave him with mainly Luos..10% plus 5% that opinion polls have him.Ruto is the new dynamic...almost playing the middle of gema and non gema
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ODM and Raila are pushing for Bomas Draft - hybrid PORK-PM, 3-tier, etc. As you admit this had majority backing. BBI is Bomas not Kilifi.
Raila did not "save" Kibaki in 2002 - any more than Ruto saved Uhuru in 2013. Kibaki and then Uhuru were simply the best candidates at the time. Nobody ever made anybody anything without their own selfish calculations and realism. KANU had Kikuyu-Luhya ticket same as NARC.
The last selfless politician was Jaramogi who indeed saved Jomo - and Uhuru is keen to repay that oldest debt. Uhuru owe his PORK first and foremost to his heritage (so Raila collect for Jaramogi), then Moi Snr (Giddy collects), then Ruto is distant 3rd - will be paid in 2042. I don't see any betrayal just priority - which is accurate. Uhuru remain gentleman ready to pay all debts and atone sins of the father. Jomo killed parliamentary federalism- BBI is actually atonement for original sin.
Nowayaha,
1) Kibaki was abandoned en-masse by Mt Kenya immediately Moi endorsed Uhuru. Kiambu and a whole 1/3 of GEMA still voted for Uhuru and KANU in the main election.
2) Raila saved Kibaki - otherwise KANU would have won - with possibly Nyachae-Raila and Kibaki-Wamalwa distant third. Ngilu and Wamalwa were welterweight. Raila did heavy lifting after Kibaki got indisposed with road accident.
3) Kibaki signed an MOU with LDP. He reneged on it almost immeidately. This is Uhuru 2.0 betrayal of Jubilee and nothing good can come out of it.
4) Kibaki after losing in Bomas - run to Kilifi - and made his own document (BBI style) -and subjected to the referendum - instead of the Bomas draft that had representation of all kenyans.
5) BBI is another kilifi draft - cynical document - it cannot go anywhere without public support - it will be defeated either in parliament or courts or in a referendum - if at all Raila and Uhuru can manage to agree. The current constitution is negotiated document - everyone lost something - and everyone need to get over it - and live with it.
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Robina, this jaramogi myth is very hilarious to me as keen historian.GEMA in absence of Kenyatta appointed James Gichuru the kanu chairman and jaramogi the vice chairman. THE DRUNKARD JAMES GICHURU IS THE ONE WHO SACRIFICED BEING PM WHEN KANU WAS ASKED TO FORM GOV BY COLONIAL OFFICE .Jaramogi never sacrificed anything.He wasn't going to be anything more than minister....in James Gichuru gov.KADU and settler then formed gov with like of Moi as education minister.
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Robina I think Raila is going down and Ruto is very strong. The next two years will be critical.Raila would be smiling if it was for small mistake of destroying NASA and his support base.Raila every election if you go by ODM fortunes has been losing support.He had Luos, mijikendas and southern Luhyas.I think he in the process of losing coast.That leave him with mainly Luos..10% plus 5% that opinion polls have him.Ruto is the new dynamic...almost playing the middle of gema and non gema
You see this pattern... Raila messed Ruto in 2002 - Ruto messed Raila in 2013 - Raila messed Ruto in 2018 - your hope is Ruto realigns his ducks in next 2 years. Tough luck. Gema are kingmakers so forget about PEV - it needs hate speech and incitement which is bad strategy this round.
BBI is dead thanks to covid. Handshake coalition is new NARC - they will promise to roll out more devolution and all nonsense in 100 days - and sweep the floor with Ruto.
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NARC 2 will have PORK, DPORK, PM, 2 DPM - which string all Kalonzo, Mdvds, Johos, Oparanyas to back Raila-PK. With more devolution, gender parity, etc - all miracles in 100 days. Ruto hustler coalition will not be credible to have such lineup since he oppose BBI2.
See it Ruto who is flat-footed... no party, no influencers, no machinery. No nothing.
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That is history like 2007 - folks believe selfless patriot Jaramogi declined to form GoK without Jomo as PM - and that Kibaki rigged Raila. Few people believe Raila was rigged 2013-17 cause RVGema is perceived as the bigger coalition.
For 2022 - most Ruto folks esp Gema - already accept Ruto will win but system will rig in Raila. Perception is reality. :)
Robina, this jaramogi myth is very hilarious to me as keen historian.GEMA in absence of Kenyatta appointed James Gichuru the kanu chairman and jaramogi the vice chairman. THE DRUNKARD JAMES GICHURU IS THE ONE WHO SACRIFICED BEING PM WHEN KANU WAS ASKED TO FORM GOV BY COLONIAL OFFICE .Jaramogi never sacrificed anything.He wasn't going to be anything more than minister....in James Gichuru gov.KADU and settler then formed gov with like of Moi as education minister.
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Pundit, we have told you several times. Stop those war cries. There will be no war if William Ruto looses an election. He is not Raila. If you think that even one Kikuyu will raise his hand against a Luo or Kisii because of William Ruto, then you are mistaken.
Whom apart from Kikuyus and the few Kisiis will the Kalejin attack? The number of Kalejin outside of RV is negligible. Face reality and scheme for a life after 2022 without William Ruto being president of Kenya.
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Most Afrooptimist just because they sip on some imported wines and whiskey are deluded to think Africa is some Geneva and not jungles running with brutal restless people who will turn crazy in a spark despite all the history. The veneer of some urban slums and press conferences is deluding! Uhurus, Murathes, Atwolis are in utopia heaven stairs. They think they hold monopoly of savagery in stealing covid billions, but the desperate masses are now nuns.
The kids who saw 2007 are now out of school and idle -they won't mind any blood sport for any sake.
Heck, mwafrika is hacking their spouses and kids, like cabbage and you think with political grievance they won't run amok because of empty never again slogans!
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Any war btw Kalenjin and kikuyus is enough to grind the country to a halt. Even in 2007 - the rest of the wars - were sideshows. We are talking about a million people who be affected within matters of hour or days.
Pundit, we have told you several times. Stop those war cries. There will be no war if William Ruto looses an election. He is not Raila. If you think that even one Kikuyu will raise his hand against a Luo or Kisii because of William Ruto, then you are mistaken.
Whom apart from Kikuyus and the few Kisiis will the Kalejin attack? The number of Kalejin outside of RV is negligible. Face reality and scheme for a life after 2022 without William Ruto being president of Kenya.
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And how does this work for Ruto-MK ticket? War has logic too. There is a reason Murathe and Tuju are still carrying Uhuru cross - watching the interview it difficult to get the exaggeration in your thread here.
Any war btw Kalenjin and kikuyus is enough to grind the country to a halt. Even in 2007 - the rest of the wars - were sideshows. We are talking about a million people who be affected within matters of hour or days.
Pundit, we have told you several times. Stop those war cries. There will be no war if William Ruto looses an election. He is not Raila. If you think that even one Kikuyu will raise his hand against a Luo or Kisii because of William Ruto, then you are mistaken.
Whom apart from Kikuyus and the few Kisiis will the Kalejin attack? The number of Kalejin outside of RV is negligible. Face reality and scheme for a life after 2022 without William Ruto being president of Kenya.
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Kenya is 3 beacons. It 2 vs 1 so your boy is on losing side. 2007 was also 2 v 1 so Kibaki had to accede to NARA.
My high IQ is telling me a civil war is probable because Uhuru has gov and Ruto has warriors :) - Ruto unless assisinated is not the guy to be cowed.
We were just few days from one in 2007. In Nakuru the police basically split along tribes - and army from Lanet had to be called. Now assume the army split.
A repeat of 2007 will be worse.
My high IQ allows me to predict good and bad things.
There is nothing special about Kenya - that South Sudan or Uganda or Rwanda or Somali - didn't have - you have two powerful leaders engaged in death fight - and country will probably die with it.
This is like Machar-Kiir fight - that put south sudan into a civil war.
The next phase is civil war in gov circles, security forces and the work.
Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?
Uhuru is no longer a factor . Just like Awori in 2007 , didnt bring any value to Kibaki
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Nowayah,Bomas unravel because of one thing, devolution. Kikuyu were afraid of majimbo..their fears both founded and unfounded. Founded because the 14 region would mean a million kikuyu in RV and Coast that were already unwanted would suffer.They first killed Prof Mbai.Such a shame because Mbai had helped crafted devolution from majimbo or federalism that some wanted.When it backfired they went to kilifi and adopted constitution that mirrored mois 1980s district focus..the current counties and devolution..is a middle ground btw kilifi or gema document and non gema bomas.Raila want Bomas back.But obviously he doesn't know why many differs with it.This constitution is not broken.It breaks if we go to another war and we can fix it
Did you read the Bomas draft ? That document was premised on selection rather than election The so called Regional assembilies and Presidents would be selected by councils , same as selection of a Premier . Also how do you explain the initial idea of making Nyanza two regions and maintaining one in Central ,Coast , North Eastern, Eastern ?
Here is the Bomas draft go through it and tell me if it is not comedy
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3.sourceafrica.net/documents/118273/Kenya-4-Draft-Constitution-Bomas-Draft-2004.pdf
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NARC 2 will have PORK, DPORK, PM, 2 DPM - which string all Kalonzo, Mdvds, Johos, Oparanyas to back Raila-PK. With more devolution, gender parity, etc - all miracles in 100 days. Ruto hustler coalition will not be credible to have such lineup since he oppose BBI2.
See it Ruto who is flat-footed... no party, no influencers, no machinery. No nothing.
You need to wake up from that Lala land you are in are ,Mudavadi . The miracle will be Raila winning and its not happening , Didnt happen in 97,2007,2013, 2017 and wont happen in 2022 , you will be here talking about how 2022 elections were rigged
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COE - harmonized both Bomas and Kilifi - gave us harmonized draft 1 - we made our suggestions - they gave us harmonized draft II - and then Naivasha PSC - made the final call and gave us constitution. So this is really water under the bridge. I believe both sides won and lost. I believe BBI cannot be anything serious.
Did you read the Bomas draft ? That document was premised on selection rather than election The so called Regional assembilies and Presidents would be selected by councils , same as selection of a Premier . Also how do you explain the initial idea of making Nyanza two regions and maintaining one in Central ,Coast , North Eastern, Eastern ?
Here is the Bomas draft go through it and tell me if it is not comedy
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3.sourceafrica.net/documents/118273/Kenya-4-Draft-Constitution-Bomas-Draft-2004.pdf
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NARC 2 will have PORK, DPORK, PM, 2 DPM - which string all Kalonzo, Mdvds, Johos, Oparanyas to back Raila-PK. With more devolution, gender parity, etc - all miracles in 100 days. Ruto hustler coalition will not be credible to have such lineup since he oppose BBI2.
See it Ruto who is flat-footed... no party, no influencers, no machinery. No nothing.
You need to wake up from that Lala land you are in are ,Mudavadi . The miracle will be Raila winning and its not happening , Didnt happen in 97,2007,2013, 2017 and wont happen in 2022 , you will be here talking about how 2022 elections were rigged
We been here before - Ruto doing KYM job then get overzealous, loudmouth and kicked out like a dog. 2005 - 2 vs 1 No won. 2010 - 2 vs 1 Yes won. Ruto has never been president. He need to create and run a non-Kalenjin party first for at least a few years. He's still at basic level of tripping over himself. How do you lose to a retiring president? This is Guinness record.
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Noway - on party management Mdvd has a better record than Ruto. You'd think after Kanu, ODM-K, ODM, UDM bloke would know a few tricks. It was bragged he had control of the party - before we discover a clause that say party leader decision is final on all matters - exactly like ODM :)
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Ruto unlike other politicians has never stagnated because he works very hard.
The Ruto of 2020 is not the Ruto of 5yrs or 10yrs ago.
But you're blind and deaf to see.
Ruto formed URP and it participated in 2013 election.
That was Ruto - a mere MP facing ICC.
Maybe you were blind and deaf then.
This is how URP performed nearly 10yrs ago - we cannot use presidential election because Ruto gave Uhuru his.
National Assembly - 290 elected constituencies
Party Number of MPs
ODM: 74
TNA: 68
URP: 58
WDM-K): 19
If we included women rep and nominated - I think figures was 78 for URP, 85 for TNA and 96 for ODM.
THE SENATE
Party Number of Senators
ODM 11
TNA 11
URP 9
WDM-K) 4
TNA had majority in 9 county assemblies - URP had in 7 counties - ODM had in 8 counties.
The county assembly breakdown
ODM 366 MCA in 34 counties
TNA 335 MCA in 32 counties
URP 242 MCA in 29 counties
Now that was Ruto - a mere MP - facing ICC :)
2017 - Jubilee merged and generally improved their figures - by 5-10%.
We know most of the improvement didn't come from Uhuru - but from Ruto campagins in areas like Western, Coast, Gusii and Ukambani paid off.
Now fast forward to 2020 - Ruto is right in GEMA heartland- at worst he may split with Uhuru protege - at best - he may lead a GEMA revolt. That is why Ruto killed URP like he did KANU - his future strategy was to tightly couple with GEMA - making it very hard for any breakup - to follow tribal lines.
You guys have jokes.
Let talk about ODM.
ODM began with 50% of parliament in 2007 - about 105Mps in 2007 - that would 170Mps now.
And of 2017 - 10yrs - later - Raila had 62 Mps. Including zero Mp in gusiiland (apart from Arati in Nairobi), zero Mp in Bukusu,zero Mp in most of pastoral areas.
ODM now is Luo party (about 40mps) and Mijikenda (about 20Mps). Then add few Mps from Busia and Kakamega.
Now mijikenda - are bolting out.
So we can predict ODM number in 2022 - will reduce from 62 to 40 mps.
Meanwhile Ruto running alone is likely to end up with 40% of all Mps - about 130mps.
Jubilee will break up - it won't be on TNA/URP well know fault-lines - it will be on Jubilee Asili and Jubilee Corona fault lines.
For Ruto - he will seek to carry the original dream/vision of Jubilee (jubilee 1.0) while the Jubilee Corona will carry BBI/handshake impostor of Raila.
So far - we know Mt Kenya has refused to board MV Corona with Raila welcoming them aboard.
Uhuru we don't know his plan if he has any beyond looting for the final time.
We been here before - Ruto doing KYM job then get overzealous, loudmouth and kicked out like a dog. 2005 - 2 vs 1 No won. 2010 - 2 vs 1 Yes won. Ruto has never been president. He need to create and run a non-Kalenjin party first for at least a few years. He's still at basic level of tripping over himself. How do you lose to a retiring president? This is Guinness record.
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You're confusing little party certificates intrigues with real political moves.
Ruto was in KANU - quit KANU when Uhuru/Giddy refused to formalize the merge with LDP to form ODM
Then he quit ODM when Raila proved incompetent and insecure- to form URP and did a coalition with TNA - and then merged URP to form Jubilee.
How many parties are those. KANU -ODM-URP/Jubilee. Those are like 3 parties. KANU-ODM-Jubilee.
Noway - on party management Mdvd has a better record than Ruto. You'd think after Kanu, ODM-K, ODM, UDM bloke would know a few tricks. It was bragged he had control of the party - before we discover a clause that say party leader decision is final on all matters - exactly like ODM :)
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In terms of governors - URP had beaten TNA blue.
ODM (CORD) Kisii, Nyamira, Nairobi, Homabay, Kisumu, Siaya, Busia, Kakamega, Kajiado,
Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit, Taita-Taveta, Kilifi,Kwale, Mombasa,
WDM-K (CORD) Tana River, Garissa, Kitui, Machakos
UDF (Jubilee) Lamu
URP (Jubilee) Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi,Baringo, Narok,
Kericho, Bomet
APK (Jubilee) Meru
TNA (Jubilee) Tharaka, Embu, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Muranga, Kiambu, Laikipia, Nakuru
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We can't gauge ones popularity with the no of mps.Kibaki had 4o mps yet he became president.Rutos urp had 62 elected mps yet 5o of them came from his kalenjin rift,how does that add his national value.Presidency in Kenya is won through popular vote,we are a pure presidential system and not parliamentary.Railas trajectory has been on an upward trend with regards to national vote and popularity,number if mps not withstanding.2007 he got 3.4M votes,2012 he had 5.4 M votes and 2017 he managed 7M votes.So going by the same sequence,he is likely to hit 9M votes in 2022.
Mobutu starts with 1.4 kalenjin votes,tall order.
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So Raila and Uhuru get to keep Kalonzo, Madvd and Ruto votes;
Very funny.
You see we can only compare oranges and oranges. I know you wish Ruto would remain a Nandi leader like Koitalel - but the man went national long time ago.
Anyway as far as it goes two opinion polls shows Ruto is leading by far - one had him at 40% of the 80% decided and another by 30%
Raila is stuck at 15-17%.
Now don't start long lectures on opinion polls - because MOAS tells me Ruto is doing well.
Worst - case scenario for Ruto.
1) He will most likely sweep entire RV as a start including GEMA diaspora suing for peace. That is 25% head start. I think some Turkana and Matusa who had entertained Raila woke up recently. Ruto is likely to cut the Maa a slack and support them for Narok governorship. That should make them happy.
2) Ruto is the man to beat in Bukusuland (the 3 Bukusu here will scream murder) - but I believe Weta and his lackey in Kitale - are interested in merger with Ruto for local reasons (they want to be governors of Bungoma and Tranzoia). Ruto is the man to beat in about half of Kakamega.
4) Ruto should write off Gusii unless Matiangi chicken - he will get few votes from there - Matiangi is the new guy. But if Matiangi doesn't get picked for either PORK or DPORK - Ruto get to play.
5) Ruto will carry the Pastoralist vote of North Eastern and NEP. Firing Duale was a dumb move if Uhuru was serious about 2022.1K1S 1M1S propaganda has damaged the relationship btw gov and pastoralist completely.
6) Ruto will carry about half of Coast - ODM has mistreated their only reliable partner - and there is going to be huge fallout. Joho is kaput. Mijikenda will form their own party. The Kilifi-Kwale governor will probably cut a deal with anybody but Raila. Ruto looks natural partner for them - and that transform fortunes there to 70% plus.
7) Now the big one is Nairobi, Eastern and Central. Ruto worse case scenario will get half of those votes as long as he has DPORK from there. Nairobi is going to be interesting - but Sonko will be lethal as always- and Uhuru has mistreated him - Baba will back Luo ODM - so you can see worse case - Ruto if he cuts a deal with Sonko - start at huge advantage.
As you can see Ruto is already racing toward 50% in first round. To nick it - he just need to get maDVD or Kalonzo - and he is past 50%.
That is why BBI crowd are scared. A kikuyu elite candidate like PK cannot beat Ruto. Raila cannot be sold in GEMA.
Ruto just need to stay alive.
Once Uhuru realize Ruto is unstoppable he will cut a deal and cut his boys loose.
Ruto has national appeal now (uncharted territory for GEMA and Non-GEMA to support one candidate), he has a revolutionary message (dynasty versus hustlers), he has money and he has some part of gov. Uhuru has to completely purge the gov to remove Ruto allies - he is probably 1/4 way done. As long as Ruto has NIS/Intelligence as good as Uhuru has - then Deep State/Harambee house boys plans will easy to beat.
We can't gauge ones popularity with the no of mps.Kibaki had 4o mps yet he became president.Rutos urp had 62 elected mps yet 5o of them came from his kalenjin rift,how does that add his national value.Presidency in Kenya is won through popular vote,we are a pure presidential system and not parliamentary.Railas trajectory has been on an upward trend with regards to national vote and popularity,number if mps not withstanding.2007 he got 3.4M votes,2012 he had 5.4 M votes and 2017 he managed 7M votes.So going by the same sequence,he is likely to hit 9M votes in 2022.
Mobutu starts with 1.4 kalenjin votes,tall order.
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You are too hypothetical,as of opinion polls,should it worry you that Ruto is now at 30% Down from 40%.That Raila is up to 17% up from 7% yet he has not even started campaigning.Have you factored a gema candidate coming in the picture.
On voting patterns,your narrative of Raila loosing coast has been there ever since I knew you,it didn't start today,Ruto and Uhuru had all the machinery but still didn't manage,what makes you think Ruto now who looks subdued and partyless will manage.The likes is Omar,jicho oeve,jumwa will be lucky to retain their seats.
Now to western,take this to bank,luhyas will first vote Raila,then Mdvd,then Wetangula then Mobutu in that order.Raila got more votes than Uhuru in washiali,Didimus,constituencies and others.so be advised accordingly.
As of Nairobi,don't even go there.Let Mobutu first win a sit in the city with his new kalenjin outfit before we even start talking.As of central,you and me know very well that a kikuyu will vote for even a dog dressed in their preffered party colours rather than an outsider.The signs are already out there.just wait for the Limuru declaration.
As for running mate,kindly advice king Mobutu not to waste his time picking a kikuyu,let him go for kithure Kindiki if not bonny Khalwale.I sleep.
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Ruto has no street cred in steering big ship. He never run the show in KANU, ODM, Jubilee but was duped to feel important without real power. He is at Raila NDP or Wiper level of bulk Kalenjin and few pastoralists. Until you have a real cohesive hustler party - talk is cheap.
You're confusing little party certificates intrigues with real political moves.
Ruto was in KANU - quit KANU when Uhuru/Giddy refused to formalize the merge with LDP to form ODM
Then he quit ODM when Raila proved incompetent and insecure- to form URP and did a coalition with TNA - and then merged URP to form Jubilee.
How many parties are those. KANU -ODM-URP/Jubilee. Those are like 3 parties. KANU-ODM-Jubilee.
Noway - on party management Mdvd has a better record than Ruto. You'd think after Kanu, ODM-K, ODM, UDM bloke would know a few tricks. It was bragged he had control of the party - before we discover a clause that say party leader decision is final on all matters - exactly like ODM :)
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We know Kiraitu APK and Kiunjuri GNU backed TNA for PORK. Ruto URP was 3rd after ODM, TNA - this has not changed to-date. His 3 year mean machine is now backing his arch-rival for president.
In terms of governors - URP had beaten TNA blue.
ODM (CORD) Kisii, Nyamira, Nairobi, Homabay, Kisumu, Siaya, Busia, Kakamega, Kajiado,
Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit, Taita-Taveta, Kilifi,Kwale, Mombasa,
WDM-K (CORD) Tana River, Garissa, Kitui, Machakos
UDF (Jubilee) Lamu
URP (Jubilee) Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi,Baringo, Narok,
Kericho, Bomet
APK (Jubilee) Meru
TNA (Jubilee) Tharaka, Embu, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Muranga, Kiambu, Laikipia, Nakuru
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Somebody who run the gov cannot run a party - you're funny.
When Tuju and Murathe failed to run nomination - Uhuru called Ruto and he fixed it in 3 days.
Ruto can run anything.
Ruto has no street cred in steering big ship. He never run the show in KANU, ODM, Jubilee but was duped to feel important without real power. He is at Raila NDP or Wiper level of bulk Kalenjin and few pastoralists. Until you have a real cohesive hustler party - talk is cheap.
You're confusing little party certificates intrigues with real political moves.
Ruto was in KANU - quit KANU when Uhuru/Giddy refused to formalize the merge with LDP to form ODM
Then he quit ODM when Raila proved incompetent and insecure- to form URP and did a coalition with TNA - and then merged URP to form Jubilee.
How many parties are those. KANU -ODM-URP/Jubilee. Those are like 3 parties. KANU-ODM-Jubilee.
Noway - on party management Mdvd has a better record than Ruto. You'd think after Kanu, ODM-K, ODM, UDM bloke would know a few tricks. It was bragged he had control of the party - before we discover a clause that say party leader decision is final on all matters - exactly like ODM :)
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Raila has been stuck at 15-17%. That is about Luos and few diehards. He cannot go to 7%. He will go end at 10%.
The rest of your drivel sounds like oil and water don't mix that had your disappearing for many years.
You have zero credibility and worse zero conviction to stand by your thoughts.
You're going to disappear again. At least Robina disappear for a day or two.
Btw 2008-2013 - you gave us prediction with the finality of a oracle - and now you're back again.
Very funny.
You are too hypothetical,as of opinion polls,should it worry you that Ruto is now at 30% Down from 40%.That Raila is up to 17% up from 7% yet he has not even started campaigning.Have you factored a gema candidate coming in the picture.
On voting patterns,your narrative of Raila loosing coast has been there ever since I knew you,it didn't start today,Ruto and Uhuru had all the machinery but still didn't manage,what makes you think Ruto now who looks subdued and partyless will manage.The likes is Omar,jicho oeve,jumwa will be lucky to retain their seats.
Now to western,take this to bank,luhyas will first vote Raila,then Mdvd,then Wetangula then Mobutu in that order.Raila got more votes than Uhuru in washiali,Didimus,constituencies and others.so be advised accordingly.
As of Nairobi,don't even go there.Let Mobutu first win a sit in the city with his new kalenjin outfit before we even start talking.As of central,you and me know very well that a kikuyu will vote for even a dog dressed in their preffered party colours rather than an outsider.The signs are already out there.just wait for the Limuru declaration.
As for running mate,kindly advice king Mobutu not to waste his time picking a kikuyu,let him go for kithure Kindiki if not bonny Khalwale.I sleep.
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You're a kiddo in politics. Those of us who watched Mois, Matibas, Jaramogi, Kibaki - then small boys like Raila - before he became big - knows politics is dynamic.
You're stuck in 2007 - when Raila was all that.
Raila and ODM are KAPUT.
Next election - they will be confined to Luo Nyanza. Raila since he won 2007 election has been on a downward decline.
Ruto is the new guy - the only guy capable of uniting GEMA and Non-GEMA.
Sio MCHEZO. There cannot be two Non-GEMA leaders - Raila is Out. Ruto is IN. Raila inherited it from MO1. GEMA elite if they don't reconcile with Ruto - will split.
You probably didn't see when Moi was colossus who'd defeat all the big tribes :) Moi beat Kibaki to bulb with entire GEMA in his tow.
Politics is dynamic.
If your predictive model - cannot yield 70-80% rejection of the current leadership every 5yrs - then do something else.
We know Kiraitu APK and Kiunjuri GNU backed TNA for PORK. Ruto URP was 3rd after ODM, TNA - this has not changed to-date. His 3 year mean machine is now backing his arch-rival for president.
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The only credible opinion poll had Ruto at 30% before Jubilee funeral. 40% was a briefcase marketing company from London noone heard of before.
1M1S has left Ruto in a bad place with Gema - the pretence that he loves them is dead. In Coast as everywhere else he has lightweights like Omar Hassan - distant 3rd in Mombasa for governor. I am not sure when Joho became kaput - he had 70% of the vote with Omar 10%. Kingi and Joho remain the kings in Coast and they back Raila. Luhya he has Barasa, Washiali and the big loser Khalwale - who was beat 70-20 by Oparanya. All big kahuna back Raila - Otichillo, Ojaamong, Oparanya, Khaemba, Eugene name it. Mdvd and Weta have vehemently distanced themselves from Ruto. Kambaland Kalonzo is presently in Handshake. The governors are Raila-leaning. Gusii even before Matiang'i Ruto had a DG and few MPs - the rest Raila.
Ruto popularity is theory and speculation. He actually remain with URP: Kalenjin, part MATUSA, part NFD. He has no party - it Guinness Record that his party back his opponent - it akin to GOP backing Joe Biden :)
You are too hypothetical,as of opinion polls,should it worry you that Ruto is now at 30% Down from 40%.That Raila is up to 17% up from 7% yet he has not even started campaigning.Have you factored a gema candidate coming in the picture.
On voting patterns,your narrative of Raila loosing coast has been there ever since I knew you,it didn't start today,Ruto and Uhuru had all the machinery but still didn't manage,what makes you think Ruto now who looks subdued and partyless will manage.The likes is Omar,jicho oeve,jumwa will be lucky to retain their seats.
Now to western,take this to bank,luhyas will first vote Raila,then Mdvd,then Wetangula then Mobutu in that order.Raila got more votes than Uhuru in washiali,Didimus,constituencies and others.so be advised accordingly.
As of Nairobi,don't even go there.Let Mobutu first win a sit in the city with his new kalenjin outfit before we even start talking.As of central,you and me know very well that a kikuyu will vote for even a dog dressed in their preffered party colours rather than an outsider.The signs are already out there.just wait for the Limuru declaration.
As for running mate,kindly advice king Mobutu not to waste his time picking a kikuyu,let him go for kithure Kindiki if not bonny Khalwale.I sleep.
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You're confused. 30% was the briefcase - 40% was credible. Raila long lost many non-gema - he was basically down to Mijikenda and Busia-Luo-luhya. Mijikenda have bolted. This is news to you. Joho is kaput - without mijikenda and with angry Mombasa. Pray who else in Non-gema will support Raila - Not gusii with Matiangi. Bukusu long bolted out. Maragolis are with maDVD. Kambas are confused. Pastoralist are with Ruto.
Now Ruto and GEMA - that is where the fight is on - but in the meantime Ruto is winning Non-GEMA and still has the support of GEMA.
GEMA are confused and scared. Both elite and laity. It's btw a hard place and a rock. They see Raila and they see Ruto. They prefer Ruto 10 times but of course wished they had yet another serious guy on play.
Worse case - Ruto will fight btw GEMA homegrown talent - Not Raila. Raila just won't fly. Ruto will offer GEMA DPORK and 50% for the reboot of Jubilee dream. That I believe is not negotiable. The Non-GEMA will have to accept Ruto as their leader.
The only credible opinion poll had Ruto at 30% before Jubilee funeral. 40% was a briefcase marketing company from London noone heard of before.
1M1S has left Ruto in a bad place with Gema - the pretence that he loves them is dead. In Coast as everywhere else he has lightweights like Omar Hassan - distant 3rd in Mombasa for governor. I am not sure when Joho became kaput - he had 70% of the vote with Omar 10%. Kingi and Joho remain the kings in Coast and they back Raila. Luhya he has Barasa, Washiali and the big loser Khalwale - who was beat 70-20 by Oparanya. All big kahuna back Raila - Otichillo, Ojaamong, Oparanya, Khaemba, Eugene name it. Mdvd and Weta have vehemently distanced themselves from Ruto. Kambaland Kalonzo is presently in Handshake. The governors are Raila-leaning. Gusii even before Matiang'i Ruto had a DG and few MPs - the rest Raila.
Ruto popularity is theory and speculation. He actually remain with URP: Kalenjin, part MATUSA, part NFD. He has no party - it Guinness Record that his party back his opponent - it akin to GOP backing Joe Biden :)
You are too hypothetical,as of opinion polls,should it worry you that Ruto is now at 30% Down from 40%.That Raila is up to 17% up from 7% yet he has not even started campaigning.Have you factored a gema candidate coming in the picture.
On voting patterns,your narrative of Raila loosing coast has been there ever since I knew you,it didn't start today,Ruto and Uhuru had all the machinery but still didn't manage,what makes you think Ruto now who looks subdued and partyless will manage.The likes is Omar,jicho oeve,jumwa will be lucky to retain their seats.
Now to western,take this to bank,luhyas will first vote Raila,then Mdvd,then Wetangula then Mobutu in that order.Raila got more votes than Uhuru in washiali,Didimus,constituencies and others.so be advised accordingly.
As of Nairobi,don't even go there.Let Mobutu first win a sit in the city with his new kalenjin outfit before we even start talking.As of central,you and me know very well that a kikuyu will vote for even a dog dressed in their preffered party colours rather than an outsider.The signs are already out there.just wait for the Limuru declaration.
As for running mate,kindly advice king Mobutu not to waste his time picking a kikuyu,let him go for kithure Kindiki if not bonny Khalwale.I sleep.
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Pajero theory of GEMA candidate remain plausible but far fetched. Unless say Raila cut his losses and back PK.
Raila has been stuck at 15-17%. That is about Luos and few diehards. He cannot go to 7%. He will go end at 10%.
The rest of your drivel sounds like oil and water don't mix that had your disappearing for many years.
You have zero credibility and worse zero conviction to stand by your thoughts.
You're going to disappear again. At least Robina disappear for a day or two.
Btw 2008-2013 - you gave us prediction with the finality of a oracle - and now you're back again.
Very funny.
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Yes a desperate Raila is like a desperate Kalonzo. But like formulae shown - the Non-GEMA are not going with him and it still come short - if he auction Luos only - they won't get anywhere - Ruto will remain with Non-gema - and if Raila moves - Kalonzo/MaDVD will have to move in opposite direction - to spite him.
Pajero theory of GEMA candidate remain plausible but far fetched. Unless say Raila cut his losses and back PK.
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Current crop vs almighty Moi or Jomo is apples vs oranges. Uhuru or Ruto does not have the leverage of jailing people or auctioning them unless they join Kanu. Raila leaped from 10% NDP to 50% LDP-ODM thru trojan 1 and Orange No. At least ODM has been thinning piece by piece - it is still 3X NDP. Ruto leaped 20% URP to 50% Jubilee - which has basically poofed in 3 years - he is back to URP factory settings. GEMA iko wenyewe - PK loading pole pole. I told you 2 years ago - as you clang to Uhurutopia - that Ruto will be clobbered until he needs GEMA. We are actually there at the juncture of Raila 2012 desperation for Kalenjin.
You're a kiddo in politics. Those of us who watched Mois, Matibas, Jaramogi, Kibaki - then small boys like Raila - before he became big - knows politics is dynamic.
You're stuck in 2007 - when Raila was all that.
Raila and ODM are KAPUT.
Next election - they will be confined to Luo Nyanza. Raila since he won 2007 election has been on a downward decline.
Ruto is the new guy - the only guy capable of uniting GEMA and Non-GEMA.
Sio MCHEZO. There cannot be two Non-GEMA leaders - Raila is Out. Ruto is IN. Raila inherited it from MO1. GEMA elite if they don't reconcile with Ruto - will split.
You probably didn't see when Moi was colossus who'd defeat all the big tribes :) Moi beat Kibaki to bulb with entire GEMA in his tow.
Politics is dynamic.
If your predictive model - cannot yield 70-80% rejection of the current leadership every 5yrs - then do something else.
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You like bending the truth. Raila at age of Ruto run in NDP and came short at 10%. He joined KANU and is short-changed almost immediately. Well - he was powerful minister and KANU sec for 2yrs. He formed LDP and they won with NAK - 67 - a coalition. LDP coalition is immediately betrayed. And by 2005 - they were all fired. Raila goes back to opposition benches and join up with Ruto - ODM - and you know the long story - quarrelsome coalition with kibaki - until he was sent back permanently it appears to opposition benches. Now Ruto - rise up in KANU - enjoy KANU for like 10yrs - opposition for 5 yrs - NARA with Raila for 3yrs - ICC for 2yrs - and back to gov - where for 5yrs he was like president - until today where he still DPORK albeit without porfolio - and still have many of his guys in gov. He is like Raila in NARA.
The future is funny. One day you're in Kagwe. Next PK. Next I don't know who.
You think kenya leadership is that easy - just fish a candidate, take him to Limuru conference center and declare him GEMA candidate - and go swear him in statehouse.
MAAJABU.
PK - has never even been a minister :) and is now going to be our president through some MAGIC WAD :) waved by BBI.
My friend make PK even minister of toilets - first. Kagwe is out with Corona.
PK somebody who came last in 2013 and could not win Nairobi - whose greatest achievement is managing 20million in CDF - will now manage 50million in a 4 trillion budget :) :) :)
Does a Samburu herdsman even know him :) at least the name.
Moi at least tried to prop Uhuru - although the fall he got from Kenyans was resounding. If WSR is competing with PK - it will be uncontested. kibaki v Uhuru.
PORK hapana mchezo. Ask Raila.
Current crop vs almighty Moi or Jomo is apples vs oranges. Uhuru or Ruto does not have the leverage of jailing people or auctioning them unless they join Kanu. Raila leaped from 10% NDP to 50% LDP-ODM thru trojan 1 and Orange No. At least ODM has been thinning piece by piece - it is still 3X NDP. Ruto leaped 20% URP to 50% Jubilee - which has basically poofed in 3 years - he is back to URP factory settings. GEMA iko wenyewe - PK loading pole pole. I told you 2 years ago - as you clang to Uhurutopia - that Ruto will be clobbered until he needs GEMA. We are actually there at the juncture of Raila 2012 desperation for Kalenjin.
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As usual we can rehash the influencer line-up. Coast or Luhya will not miraculously drop from Raila into Ruto basket - the key figures there back Raila. What we have now is Handshake vs Hustler camps - with Mdvd 3rd wheel distancing himself from Ruto. I don't know where you get the illusion of any big shifts. Non-GEMA remain scattered - URP, ODM, Wiper, ANC, FORD-K. GEMA remain in flux with biggest kahuna Uhuru systematically pulling the lever for Raila. Uhuru/GEMA are losing the 1M1S debacle - it the losers who will be bitter not the non-GEMA winners. Murkomen is the anti-GEMA face in senate.
Raila BBI Manifesto - is NARC redux - easier to string folks as PORK, VP, PM, DPM with some credibility. Ruto like Kanu cannot credibly have such a lineup after vehemently opposing BBI. Likes of Weta have recoiled to governor. Kalonzo has been ready to be Treasury CS under Handshake GNU :) These folks need some hope - as their SH pipedream become apparent - which is the hope BBI give them.
Yes a desperate Raila is like a desperate Kalonzo. But like formulae shown - the Non-GEMA are not going with him and it still come short - if he auction Luos only - they won't get anywhere - Ruto will remain with Non-gema - and if Raila moves - Kalonzo/MaDVD will have to move in opposite direction - to spite him.
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So you think Kenya politics is social media - buy a few influencers- and win. Please understand the nexus btw community interest and community leaders. Those leaders seen to no longer carry the community interest are unloaded. And you have headline...like SHOCK DEFEAT.
As usual we can rehash the influencer line-up. Coast or Luhya will not miraculously drop from Raila into Ruto basket - the key figures there back Raila. What we have now is Handshake vs Hustler camps - with Mdvd 3rd wheel distancing himself from Ruto. I don't know where you get the illusion of any big shifts. Non-GEMA remain scattered - URP, ODM, Wiper, ANC, FORD-K. GEMA remain in flux with biggest kahuna Uhuru systematically pulling the lever for Raila. Uhuru/GEMA are losing the 1M1S debacle - it the losers who will be bitter not the non-GEMA winners. Murkomen is the anti-GEMA face in senate.
Raila BBI Manifesto - is NARC redux - easier to string folks as PORK, VP, PM, DPM with some credibility. Ruto like Kanu cannot credibly have such a lineup after vehemently opposing BBI. Likes of Weta have recoiled to governor. Kalonzo has been ready to be Treasury CS under Handshake GNU :) These folks need some hope - as their SH pipedream become apparent - which is the hope BBI give them.
Yes a desperate Raila is like a desperate Kalonzo. But like formulae shown - the Non-GEMA are not going with him and it still come short - if he auction Luos only - they won't get anywhere - Ruto will remain with Non-gema - and if Raila moves - Kalonzo/MaDVD will have to move in opposite direction - to spite him.
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Kibaki beating Uhuru was basically Raila beating Moi young turks lead by Ruto. That was trojan 1 as Rainbow morphed into LDP. Basically leaped from Luo NDP to today's ODM. Raila was never co-president or even VP - more like non-existent PM. Kibaki never promised to back him in future - it was mere 50-50 MOU. Uhuruto MOU was only guaranteed by 50%+1 - soon as they didn't need him he was tossed out like bad food. Uhuru has all but endorsed Raila.
PK is a wimp yes - but on the flip is most marketable GEMA - who is good for Raila DPORK. This paperweight weakness make him a great stooge candidate. You really overrate Ruto - he has never won any election as head of the ticket - at least Raila claim to be rigged. 2007 he was basically forced to back Raila. Like in Gusii - Ruto never had anything there as they voted Raila and Uhuru. Matiang'i is not going for PORK he is very loyal Uhuru dog. Gusii is all but locked into Raila basket.
Where is Ruto leading again? Outside URP pastoralists - he is assured of nothing. Luhya distance themselves - including Weta. Ukambani Kalonzo is Handshake and distance himself from Ruto. You can google it. The 3 governors - were singing Raila as recently as Kibra. Ruto has Muthama and few MPs. GEMA he has to square with incumbent PORK - who seem sworn to lock him out. Then he has to contend with machinery you deny is not a factor. Then he need to herd his flock into new hustler party. Big hurdles.
You like bending the truth. Raila at age of Ruto run in NDP and came short at 10%. He joined KANU and is short-changed almost immediately. Well - he was powerful minister and KANU sec for 2yrs. He formed LDP and they won with NAK - 67 - a coalition. LDP coalition is immediately betrayed. And by 2005 - they were all fired. Raila goes back to opposition benches and join up with Ruto - ODM - and you know the long story - quarrelsome coalition with kibaki - until he was sent back permanently it appears to opposition benches. Now Ruto - rise up in KANU - enjoy KANU for like 10yrs - opposition for 5 yrs - NARA with Raila for 3yrs - ICC for 2yrs - and back to gov - where for 5yrs he was like president - until today where he still DPORK albeit without porfolio - and still have many of his guys in gov. He is like Raila in NARA.
The future is funny. One day you're in Kagwe. Next PK. Next I don't know who.
You think kenya leadership is that easy - just fish a candidate, take him to Limuru conference center and declare him GEMA candidate - and go swear him in statehouse.
MAAJABU.
PK - has never even been a minister :) and is now going to be our president through some MAGIC WAD :) waved by BBI.
My friend make PK even minister of toilets - first. Kagwe is out with Corona.
PK somebody who came last in 2013 and could not win Nairobi - whose greatest achievement is managing 20million in CDF - will now manage 50million in a 4 trillion budget :) :) :)
Does a Samburu herdsman even know him :) at least the name.
Moi at least tried to prop Uhuru - although the fall he got from Kenyans was resounding. If WSR is competing with PK - it will be uncontested. kibaki v Uhuru.
PORK hapana mchezo. Ask Raila.
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Look at revenue duel now - GEMA are solid block for 1M1S. That is community interest for you.
Influencers are solid local leaders who would be with Ruto if he were popular outside a London pollster. Oparanyas, Johos, Matiang'is, Kiraitus, Duales - outside URP Ruto has a long lineup of pawns.
So you think Kenya politics is social media - buy a few influencers- and win. Please understand the nexus btw community interest and community leaders. Those leaders seen to no longer carry the community interest are unloaded. And you have headline...like SHOCK DEFEAT.
As usual we can rehash the influencer line-up. Coast or Luhya will not miraculously drop from Raila into Ruto basket - the key figures there back Raila. What we have now is Handshake vs Hustler camps - with Mdvd 3rd wheel distancing himself from Ruto. I don't know where you get the illusion of any big shifts. Non-GEMA remain scattered - URP, ODM, Wiper, ANC, FORD-K. GEMA remain in flux with biggest kahuna Uhuru systematically pulling the lever for Raila. Uhuru/GEMA are losing the 1M1S debacle - it the losers who will be bitter not the non-GEMA winners. Murkomen is the anti-GEMA face in senate.
Raila BBI Manifesto - is NARC redux - easier to string folks as PORK, VP, PM, DPM with some credibility. Ruto like Kanu cannot credibly have such a lineup after vehemently opposing BBI. Likes of Weta have recoiled to governor. Kalonzo has been ready to be Treasury CS under Handshake GNU :) These folks need some hope - as their SH pipedream become apparent - which is the hope BBI give them.
Yes a desperate Raila is like a desperate Kalonzo. But like formulae shown - the Non-GEMA are not going with him and it still come short - if he auction Luos only - they won't get anywhere - Ruto will remain with Non-gema - and if Raila moves - Kalonzo/MaDVD will have to move in opposite direction - to spite him.
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Liar. 40% was briefcase London pollster - only published in Star online. Not credible. 30% was Ipsos or Ambitho - who at least have been around struggling to perfect MOAS. Before Jubilee civil war.
You're confused. 30% was the briefcase - 40% was credible. Raila long lost many non-gema - he was basically down to Mijikenda and Busia-Luo-luhya. Mijikenda have bolted. This is news to you. Joho is kaput - without mijikenda and with angry Mombasa. Pray who else in Non-gema will support Raila - Not gusii with Matiangi. Bukusu long bolted out. Maragolis are with maDVD. Kambas are confused. Pastoralist are with Ruto.
Now Ruto and GEMA - that is where the fight is on - but in the meantime Ruto is winning Non-GEMA and still has the support of GEMA.
GEMA are confused and scared. Both elite and laity. It's btw a hard place and a rock. They see Raila and they see Ruto. They prefer Ruto 10 times but of course wished they had yet another serious guy on play.
Worse case - Ruto will fight btw GEMA homegrown talent - Not Raila. Raila just won't fly. Ruto will offer GEMA DPORK and 50% for the reboot of Jubilee dream. That I believe is not negotiable. The Non-GEMA will have to accept Ruto as their leader.
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I watched Ruto and saw a defeated man, the swagger is gone, he looked gaunt and almost in tears. I like the silence treatment from Uhuru, I think he has learned not to overreact from the headlines in Kenya. Kenyan journalisms today is a reflection of the country, very shallow and mediocre. The thing that amazes me is that our friends here can start talking about war this early in the game. I saw Murkomen’s reaction and could not help thinking that these guys luck the emotional intelligence to match their academics. The threat of beating Kenyans to submission is not going to work, personally I fail to believe that there are Kenyans out there willing to risk limb or life for Ruto’s presidency but that’s just me. If Raila, the best mobilizer in Kenya has never whipped Kenya into a frenzy of full blown civil war, someone like Ruto is going to have people yawning and going about their business at noon on Election Day. Kenyans are selfish, independent and self centered in nature, it’s difficult getting them to fight for anything let a thief like Ruto.
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There has been two polls. One by Research International (now Kantar) - this credible pollster - Ruto had 40% out of 75% decided. Raila was at 15%.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/
That was 2019 Dec.
And we recently had an opinion poll - from unknown pollster - Ruto polled 30%. This appears to have been influenced by Mutua.
Liar. 40% was briefcase London pollster - only published in Star online. Not credible. 30% was Ipsos or Ambitho - who at least have been around struggling to perfect MOAS. Before Jubilee civil war.
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If GEMA can turn 360 degrees and back Raila - then clearly I should resign as a political pundit.
Kibaki beating Uhuru was basically Raila beating Moi young turks lead by Ruto. That was trojan 1 as Rainbow morphed into LDP. Basically leaped from Luo NDP to today's ODM. Raila was never co-president or even VP - more like non-existent PM. Kibaki never promised to back him in future - it was mere 50-50 MOU. Uhuruto MOU was only guaranteed by 50%+1 - soon as they didn't need him he was tossed out like bad food. Uhuru has all but endorsed Raila.
PK is a wimp yes - but on the flip is most marketable GEMA - who is good for Raila DPORK. This paperweight weakness make him a great stooge candidate. You really overrate Ruto - he has never won any election as head of the ticket - at least Raila claim to be rigged. 2007 he was basically forced to back Raila. Like in Gusii - Ruto never had anything there as they voted Raila and Uhuru. Matiang'i is not going for PORK he is very loyal Uhuru dog. Gusii is all but locked into Raila basket.
Where is Ruto leading again? Outside URP pastoralists - he is assured of nothing. Luhya distance themselves - including Weta. Ukambani Kalonzo is Handshake and distance himself from Ruto. You can google it. The 3 governors - were singing Raila as recently as Kibra. Ruto has Muthama and few MPs. GEMA he has to square with incumbent PORK - who seem sworn to lock him out. Then he has to contend with machinery you deny is not a factor. Then he need to herd his flock into new hustler party. Big hurdles.
You like bending the truth. Raila at age of Ruto run in NDP and came short at 10%. He joined KANU and is short-changed almost immediately. Well - he was powerful minister and KANU sec for 2yrs. He formed LDP and they won with NAK - 67 - a coalition. LDP coalition is immediately betrayed. And by 2005 - they were all fired. Raila goes back to opposition benches and join up with Ruto - ODM - and you know the long story - quarrelsome coalition with kibaki - until he was sent back permanently it appears to opposition benches. Now Ruto - rise up in KANU - enjoy KANU for like 10yrs - opposition for 5 yrs - NARA with Raila for 3yrs - ICC for 2yrs - and back to gov - where for 5yrs he was like president - until today where he still DPORK albeit without porfolio - and still have many of his guys in gov. He is like Raila in NARA.
The future is funny. One day you're in Kagwe. Next PK. Next I don't know who.
You think kenya leadership is that easy - just fish a candidate, take him to Limuru conference center and declare him GEMA candidate - and go swear him in statehouse.
MAAJABU.
PK - has never even been a minister :) and is now going to be our president through some MAGIC WAD :) waved by BBI.
My friend make PK even minister of toilets - first. Kagwe is out with Corona.
PK somebody who came last in 2013 and could not win Nairobi - whose greatest achievement is managing 20million in CDF - will now manage 50million in a 4 trillion budget :) :) :)
Does a Samburu herdsman even know him :) at least the name.
Moi at least tried to prop Uhuru - although the fall he got from Kenyans was resounding. If WSR is competing with PK - it will be uncontested. kibaki v Uhuru.
PORK hapana mchezo. Ask Raila.
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Let us see how the msambweni by election will go
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GEMA will not vote Raila anymore than Kalenjin voted Uhuru; they will vote for Uhuru and his feckless stooge PK who will deal with Raila.
Your hubris and fake punditry will be exposed in 2022 when Luo and GEMA oil and water mix. Your biggest weakness is the contradiction of a dispassionate Ruto worshipper. Mutahi Ngunyi or Ndii disposition. If you were objective you would see Ruto glaring deficiencies and hurdles. Now a novice would mistake Ruto for Moi from your ululations and jubilations here.
If GEMA can turn 360 degrees and back Raila - then clearly I should resign as a political pundit.
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Let us see how the msambweni by election will go
Ruto non-existent party will sweep the floor with ODM. :)
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FAKE poll - Dec 2019 - by Kantar - Ruto 40% v 16% Raila https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/
Credible poll - March 2018 - by Ipsos - Ruto 30% v 14% Raila https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/kenya/article/2001274689/ipsos-dp-ruto-emerges-most-preferred-presidential-candidate-for-2022-polls
No credible poll has been done since Handshake. If there is share the link. To be clear credible pollster is one with a good or okay track record - Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA. Not Kantar or Nielsen who may be famous in corporate circles but not known in politics. I would equally not trust Survey Monkey, Gartner, mSurvey/Ajua or such popular business but non-political players.
There has been two polls. One by Research International (now Kantar) - this credible pollster - Ruto had 40% out of 75% decided. Raila was at 15%.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/
That was 2019 Dec.
And we recently had an opinion poll - from unknown pollster - Ruto polled 30%. This appears to have been influenced by Mutua.
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Another fake Ruto poll cooked by Itumbi :)
Ipsos: Circulating opinion poll is fake
July 3rd 2019
(https://cdn.standardmedia.co.ke/images/wednesday/gbadrupcbepybmlqjul5d1cf006340ad.jpg)
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001332462/ipsos-circulating-opinion-poll-is-fake
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You're funny. Any pollster with credibility can ask kenya to name a preffered candidate and share the results. Kantar is credible. The other one with Mutua leading is unknown.
In any case Ruto has been leading since 2018 - averaging 30-40% - without factoring undecided votes.
FAKE poll - Dec 2019 - by Kantar - Ruto 40% v 16% Raila https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/
Credible poll - March 2018 - by Ipsos - Ruto 30% v 14% Raila https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/kenya/article/2001274689/ipsos-dp-ruto-emerges-most-preferred-presidential-candidate-for-2022-polls
No credible poll has been done since Handshake. If there is share the link. To be clear credible pollster is one with a good or okay track record - Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA. Not Kantar or Nielsen who may be famous in corporate circles but not known in politics. I would equally not trust Survey Monkey, Gartner, mSurvey/Ajua or such popular business but non-political players.
There has been two polls. One by Research International (now Kantar) - this credible pollster - Ruto had 40% out of 75% decided. Raila was at 15%.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/
That was 2019 Dec.
And we recently had an opinion poll - from unknown pollster - Ruto polled 30%. This appears to have been influenced by Mutua.
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Let me rephrase that. If Uhuru and GEMA can entrust Raila with PORK - then I will resign as your favourite political pundit :).
I think Pajero theory is more credible.
If Uhuru doesn't reconcile with Ruto - GEMA elite will look for a stooge amongst themselves - add the usual (Matiangis, Wamalwas) - and go for it.
GEMA will not vote Raila anymore than Kalenjin voted Uhuru; they will vote for Uhuru and his feckless stooge PK who will deal with Raila.
Your hubris and fake punditry will be exposed in 2022 when Luo and GEMA oil and water mix. Your biggest weakness is the contradiction of a dispassionate Ruto worshipper. Mutahi Ngunyi or Ndii disposition. If you were objective you would see Ruto glaring deficiencies and hurdles. Now a novice would mistake Ruto for Moi from your ululations and jubilations here.
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COE - harmonized both Bomas and Kilifi - gave us harmonized draft 1 - we made our suggestions - they gave us harmonized draft II - and then Naivasha PSC - made the final call and gave us constitution. So this is really water under the bridge. I believe both sides won and lost. I believe BBI cannot be anything serious.
Did you read the Bomas draft ? That document was premised on selection rather than election The so called Regional assembilies and Presidents would be selected by councils , same as selection of a Premier . Also how do you explain the initial idea of making Nyanza two regions and maintaining one in Central ,Coast , North Eastern, Eastern ?
Here is the Bomas draft go through it and tell me if it is not comedy
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3.sourceafrica.net/documents/118273/Kenya-4-Draft-Constitution-Bomas-Draft-2004.pdf
Hence the meaning of building a nation , BBI should be our great grandchildren reviewing the constitution after fully implementing it and identifying it pitfalls and shortcoming . There is noway the same actors and players who were instrumental in changing the constituion can be in the front line in trying to have it changed .
In 2010 We knew Raila was opposing the constitution and only supported it to suspend a loss to KKK (Uhuru/ Ruto and Kalonzo) which eventually came to pass in 2013 - Same can be said of Ruto -This constitution was his making and in as much as he was is NO he was doing it to capture Riftvalley Kingdom which he eventually did but fundamentally he was supporting the constitution .
By 2013 Raila was already campaigning to change the constitution using OKOA KENYA and Ruto was fully supporting the constitution and the face of "NO CONSTITUTION CHANGE "
The constitution needs to be implemented fully period . ODM are not strategic now they want 14 regions as stipulated in BOMAS draft Ruto and team might just demand the 23 regions they discussed in Naivasha talks and we see who is going wink first .
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Rala want 14 counties so he can placate the Johos/Oparanya - to go for regional posts.
But those 14 regions will create huge controversies because small tribes don't want to be sat on.
As for PM and all that - let Uhuru respect Ruto as DPORK first - otherwise it doesn't make sense to add many useless position that PORK can by-pass or ignore.
What is purpose of having PM or DPork or Deputies - if they will be jobless or disrepected like Ruto now or Raila was - as the PM.
For the only constitutional change we need is to move from devolution to federalism...allow counties more power and more money to run local issues - from hiring local police, teachers, levy taxes, build paved roads, etc and name it.
Federal counties will solve many issues...and will reduce our national obsession with PORk.
But not now - counties need another 10yrs to build capacity.
Hence the meaning of building a nation , BBI should be our great grandchildren reviewing the constitution after fully implementing it and identifying it pitfalls and shortcoming . There is noway the same actors and players who were instrumental in changing the constituion can be in the front line in trying to have it changed .
In 2010 We knew Raila was opposing the constitution and only supported it to suspend a loss to KKK (Uhuru/ Ruto and Kalonzo) which eventually came to pass in 2013 - Same can be said of Ruto -This constitution was his making and in as much as he was is NO he was doing it to capture Riftvalley Kingdom which he eventually did but fundamentally he was supporting the constitution .
By 2013 Raila was already campaigning to change the constitution using OKOA KENYA and Ruto was fully supporting the constitution and the face of "NO CONSTITUTION CHANGE "
The constitution needs to be implemented fully period . ODM are not strategic now they want 14 regions as stipulated in BOMAS draft Ruto and team might just demand the 23 regions they discussed in Naivasha talks and we see who is going wink first .
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NARC 2 will have PORK, DPORK, PM, 2 DPM - which string all Kalonzo, Mdvds, Johos, Oparanyas to back Raila-PK. With more devolution, gender parity, etc - all miracles in 100 days. Ruto hustler coalition will not be credible to have such lineup since he oppose BBI2.
See it Ruto who is flat-footed... no party, no influencers, no machinery. No nothing.
You need to wake up from that Lala land you are in are ,Mudavadi . The miracle will be Raila winning and its not happening , Didnt happen in 97,2007,2013, 2017 and wont happen in 2022 , you will be here talking about how 2022 elections were rigged
We been here before - Ruto doing KYM job then get overzealous, loudmouth and kicked out like a dog. 2005 - 2 vs 1 No won. 2010 - 2 vs 1 Yes won. Ruto has never been president. He need to create and run a non-Kalenjin party first for at least a few years. He's still at basic level of tripping over himself. How do you lose to a retiring president? This is Guinness record.
You need to study Rutos career first from how he became an MP to a minister in his first term as an MP , to how he became a RV kingpin to eventually becoming a President . I will highlight some few moments
A young Ruto defeated a very powerful MOI Minister Reuben Chesire to Win Eldoret North MP seat , He went ahead and started publicy opposing MOI in RiftValley , something unheard off then .
Raila had managed to position himself as KANU heir ,Ruto managed to have Uhuru seize the seat and chase away Raila and his supporters away from KANU with that he became Minister In Home Affairs (Internal Security )
Post 2002 elections once Moi retired they managed to wrestle together with Uhuru KANU from Biwott & cO ( Remember Biwott had a bigger profile than Ruto in RV) -By 2007-2008 Ruto was ODM by himself all negotiations revolved around Ruto from NARA // Constitution etc
In 2010 constituion he managed to wrestle away RV from Raila and in 2013 became the DP up until now .
He is on his way to becoming the President in 2022
Refer to this week , Raila had 2 big interviews with Nation TV and Citizen - No one is concerned about him and the interviews . On the other side Ruto had only one interview with Citizen every one is talking about it - All news are about Ruto Ruto Ruto - Thats a sign
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Noway - on party management Mdvd has a better record than Ruto. You'd think after Kanu, ODM-K, ODM, UDM bloke would know a few tricks. It was bragged he had control of the party - before we discover a clause that say party leader decision is final on all matters - exactly like ODM :)
Its not over till its over . KANU was the same when Raila so called Tinga faction had managed to stage a coup in 2001-2002 , remember Kamotho was dethroned from SG post and Saitoti from Vice Chair Post - Remember the speech by Saitoti there comes a time when the nation is more important than an individual .
Ruto single handedly managed to convince Moi to throw Raila under the bus . The same will happen with the Murathes and Tujus .