The war btw Ruto and Uhuru is now live

[Nefertiti]

Look at revenue duel now - GEMA are solid block for 1M1S. That is community interest for you.

Influencers are solid local leaders who would be with Ruto if he were popular outside a London pollster. Oparanyas, Johos, Matiang'is, Kiraitus, Duales - outside URP Ruto has a long lineup of pawns.

So you think Kenya politics is social media - buy a few influencers- and win. Please understand the nexus btw community interest and community leaders. Those leaders seen to no longer carry the community interest are unloaded. And you have headline...like SHOCK DEFEAT.

As usual we can rehash the influencer line-up. Coast or Luhya will not miraculously drop from Raila into Ruto basket - the key figures there back Raila. What we have now is Handshake vs Hustler camps - with Mdvd 3rd wheel distancing himself from Ruto. I don't know where you get the illusion of any big shifts. Non-GEMA remain scattered - URP, ODM, Wiper, ANC, FORD-K. GEMA remain in flux with biggest kahuna Uhuru systematically pulling the lever for Raila. Uhuru/GEMA are losing the 1M1S debacle - it the losers who will be bitter not the non-GEMA winners. Murkomen is the anti-GEMA face in senate.

Raila BBI Manifesto - is NARC redux - easier to string folks as PORK, VP, PM, DPM with some credibility. Ruto like Kanu cannot credibly have such a lineup after vehemently opposing BBI. Likes of Weta have recoiled to governor. Kalonzo has been ready to be Treasury CS under Handshake GNU These folks need some hope - as their SH pipedream become apparent - which is the hope BBI give them.

Yes a desperate Raila is like a desperate Kalonzo. But like formulae shown - the Non-GEMA are not going with him and it still come short - if he auction Luos only - they won't get anywhere - Ruto will remain with Non-gema - and if Raila moves - Kalonzo/MaDVD will have to move in opposite direction - to spite him.

[Nefertiti]

Liar. 40% was briefcase London pollster - only published in Star online. Not credible. 30% was Ipsos or Ambitho - who at least have been around struggling to perfect MOAS. Before Jubilee civil war.

You're confused. 30% was the briefcase - 40% was credible. Raila long lost many non-gema - he was basically down to Mijikenda and Busia-Luo-luhya.  Mijikenda have bolted. This is news to you. Joho is kaput - without mijikenda and with angry Mombasa. Pray who else in Non-gema will support Raila - Not gusii with Matiangi. Bukusu long bolted out. Maragolis are with maDVD. Kambas are confused. Pastoralist are with Ruto.

Now Ruto and GEMA - that is where the fight is on - but in the meantime Ruto is winning Non-GEMA and still has the support of GEMA.

GEMA are confused and scared. Both elite and laity. It's btw a hard place and a rock. They see Raila and they see Ruto. They prefer Ruto 10 times but of course wished they had yet another serious guy on play.

Worse case - Ruto will fight btw GEMA homegrown talent - Not Raila. Raila just won't fly.  Ruto will offer GEMA DPORK and 50% for the reboot of Jubilee dream. That I believe is not negotiable. The Non-GEMA will have to accept Ruto as their leader.

[Fairandbalanced]

I watched Ruto and saw a defeated man, the swagger is gone, he looked gaunt and almost in tears. I like the silence treatment from Uhuru, I think he has learned not to overreact from the headlines in Kenya. Kenyan journalisms today is a reflection of the country, very shallow and mediocre. The thing that amazes me is that our friends here can start talking about war this early in the game. I saw  Murkomen’s reaction and could not help thinking that these guys luck the emotional intelligence to match their academics. The threat of beating Kenyans to submission is not going to work, personally I fail to believe that there are Kenyans out there willing to risk limb or life for Ruto’s presidency but that’s just me. If Raila, the best mobilizer in Kenya has never whipped Kenya into a frenzy of full blown civil war, someone like Ruto is going to have people yawning and going about their business at noon on Election Day. Kenyans are selfish, independent and self centered in nature, it’s difficult getting them to fight for anything let a thief like Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

There has been two polls. One by Research International (now Kantar) - this credible pollster - Ruto had 40% out of 75% decided. Raila was at 15%.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/

That was 2019 Dec.

And we recently had an opinion poll - from unknown pollster - Ruto polled 30%. This appears to have been influenced by Mutua.

Liar. 40% was briefcase London pollster - only published in Star online. Not credible. 30% was Ipsos or Ambitho - who at least have been around struggling to perfect MOAS. Before Jubilee civil war.

[RV Pundit]

If GEMA can turn 360 degrees and back Raila - then clearly I should resign as a political pundit.

Kibaki beating Uhuru was basically Raila beating Moi young turks lead by Ruto. That was trojan 1 as Rainbow morphed into LDP. Basically leaped from Luo NDP to today's ODM. Raila was never co-president or even VP - more like non-existent PM. Kibaki never promised to back him in future - it was mere 50-50 MOU. Uhuruto MOU was only guaranteed by 50%+1 - soon as they didn't need him he was tossed out like bad food. Uhuru has all but endorsed Raila.

PK is a wimp yes - but on the flip is most marketable GEMA - who is good for Raila DPORK. This paperweight weakness make him a great stooge candidate. You really overrate Ruto - he has never won any election as head of the ticket - at least Raila claim to be rigged. 2007 he was basically forced to back Raila. Like in Gusii - Ruto never had anything there as they voted Raila and Uhuru. Matiang'i is not going for PORK he is very loyal Uhuru dog. Gusii is all but locked into Raila basket.

Where is Ruto leading again?  Outside URP pastoralists - he is assured of nothing. Luhya distance themselves - including Weta. Ukambani Kalonzo is Handshake and distance himself from Ruto. You can google it. The 3 governors - were singing Raila as recently as Kibra. Ruto has Muthama and few MPs. GEMA he has to square with incumbent PORK - who seem sworn to lock him out. Then he has to contend with machinery you deny is not a factor. Then he need to herd his flock into new hustler party. Big hurdles.

You like bending the truth. Raila at age of Ruto run in NDP and came short at 10%. He joined KANU and is short-changed almost immediately. Well - he was powerful minister and KANU sec for 2yrs. He formed LDP and they won with NAK - 67 - a coalition. LDP coalition is immediately betrayed. And by 2005 - they were all fired. Raila goes back to opposition benches and join up with Ruto - ODM - and you know the long story - quarrelsome coalition with kibaki - until he was sent back permanently it appears to opposition benches. Now Ruto - rise up in KANU - enjoy KANU for like 10yrs - opposition for 5 yrs - NARA with Raila for 3yrs - ICC for 2yrs - and back to gov - where for 5yrs he was like president - until today where he still DPORK albeit without porfolio - and still have many of his guys in gov. He is like Raila in NARA.

The future is funny. One day you're in Kagwe. Next PK. Next I don't know who.

You think kenya leadership is that easy - just fish a candidate, take him to Limuru conference center and declare him GEMA candidate - and go swear him in statehouse.

MAAJABU.

PK - has never even been a minister and is now going to be our president through some MAGIC WAD waved by BBI.

My friend make PK even minister of toilets - first. Kagwe is out with Corona.

PK somebody who came last in 2013 and could not win Nairobi - whose greatest achievement is managing 20million in CDF - will now manage 50million in a 4 trillion budget

Does a Samburu herdsman even know him at least the name.

Moi at least tried to prop Uhuru - although the fall he got from Kenyans was resounding. If WSR is competing with PK  - it will be uncontested.  kibaki v Uhuru.

PORK hapana mchezo. Ask Raila.

[Pajero]

Let us see how the msambweni by election will go

[Nefertiti]

GEMA will not vote Raila anymore than Kalenjin voted Uhuru; they will vote for Uhuru and his feckless stooge PK who will deal with Raila.

Your hubris and fake punditry will be exposed in 2022 when Luo and GEMA oil and water mix. Your biggest weakness is the contradiction of a dispassionate Ruto worshipper. Mutahi Ngunyi or Ndii disposition. If you were objective you would see Ruto glaring deficiencies and hurdles. Now a novice would mistake Ruto for Moi from your ululations and jubilations here.

If GEMA can turn 360 degrees and back Raila - then clearly I should resign as a political pundit.

[Nefertiti]

Let us see how the msambweni by election will go

Ruto non-existent party will sweep the floor with ODM.

[Nefertiti]

FAKE poll - Dec 2019 - by Kantar - Ruto 40% v 16% Raila    https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/

Credible poll - March 2018 - by Ipsos - Ruto 30% v 14% Raila   https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/kenya/article/2001274689/ipsos-dp-ruto-emerges-most-preferred-presidential-candidate-for-2022-polls

No credible poll has been done since Handshake. If there is share the link. To be clear credible pollster is one with a good or okay track record - Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA. Not Kantar or Nielsen who may be famous in corporate circles but not known in politics. I would equally not trust Survey Monkey, Gartner, mSurvey/Ajua or such popular business but non-political players.

There has been two polls. One by Research International (now Kantar) - this credible pollster - Ruto had 40% out of 75% decided. Raila was at 15%.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/

That was 2019 Dec.

And we recently had an opinion poll - from unknown pollster - Ruto polled 30%. This appears to have been influenced by Mutua.

[Nefertiti]

Another fake Ruto poll cooked by Itumbi 

Ipsos: Circulating opinion poll is fake
July 3rd 2019



https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001332462/ipsos-circulating-opinion-poll-is-fake

[RV Pundit]

You're funny. Any pollster with credibility can ask kenya to name a preffered candidate and share the results. Kantar is credible. The other one with Mutua leading is unknown.

In any case Ruto has been leading since 2018 - averaging 30-40% - without factoring undecided votes.

FAKE poll - Dec 2019 - by Kantar - Ruto 40% v 16% Raila    https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/

Credible poll - March 2018 - by Ipsos - Ruto 30% v 14% Raila   https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/kenya/article/2001274689/ipsos-dp-ruto-emerges-most-preferred-presidential-candidate-for-2022-polls

No credible poll has been done since Handshake. If there is share the link. To be clear credible pollster is one with a good or okay track record - Ipsos, Infotrak, TIFA. Not Kantar or Nielsen who may be famous in corporate circles but not known in politics. I would equally not trust Survey Monkey, Gartner, mSurvey/Ajua or such popular business but non-political players.

There has been two polls. One by Research International (now Kantar) - this credible pollster - Ruto had 40% out of 75% decided. Raila was at 15%.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-12-06-66-of-kenyans-unsure-uhuru-will-back-ruto-in-2022-poll/

That was 2019 Dec.

And we recently had an opinion poll - from unknown pollster - Ruto polled 30%. This appears to have been influenced by Mutua.

[RV Pundit]

Let me rephrase that. If Uhuru and GEMA can entrust Raila with PORK - then I will resign as your favourite political pundit . 
I think Pajero theory is more credible.
If Uhuru doesn't reconcile with Ruto - GEMA elite will look for a stooge amongst themselves - add the usual (Matiangis, Wamalwas) - and go for it.

GEMA will not vote Raila anymore than Kalenjin voted Uhuru; they will vote for Uhuru and his feckless stooge PK who will deal with Raila.

Your hubris and fake punditry will be exposed in 2022 when Luo and GEMA oil and water mix. Your biggest weakness is the contradiction of a dispassionate Ruto worshipper. Mutahi Ngunyi or Ndii disposition. If you were objective you would see Ruto glaring deficiencies and hurdles. Now a novice would mistake Ruto for Moi from your ululations and jubilations here.

[Nowayhaha]

COE - harmonized both Bomas and Kilifi - gave us harmonized draft 1 - we made our suggestions - they gave us harmonized draft II - and then Naivasha PSC - made the final call and gave us constitution. So this is really water under the bridge. I believe both sides won and lost. I believe BBI cannot be anything serious.

Did you read the Bomas draft ?  That document was premised on selection rather than election  The so called Regional assembilies and Presidents  would be selected by councils , same as selection of a Premier .  Also how do you explain the initial idea of making Nyanza two regions and maintaining one in Central ,Coast , North Eastern, Eastern ?
Here is the Bomas draft go through it and tell me if it is not comedy

https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3.sourceafrica.net/documents/118273/Kenya-4-Draft-Constitution-Bomas-Draft-2004.pdf

Hence the meaning of building a nation , BBI should be our great grandchildren  reviewing the constitution after fully implementing it and identifying it pitfalls and shortcoming . There is noway the same actors and players who were instrumental in changing the constituion can be in the front line in trying to have it changed .

In 2010 We knew Raila was opposing the constitution and only supported it to suspend a loss to KKK (Uhuru/ Ruto and Kalonzo) which eventually came to pass in 2013 - Same can be said of Ruto -This constitution was his making and in as much as he was is NO he was doing it to capture Riftvalley Kingdom which he eventually did but fundamentally he was supporting the constitution .

By  2013 Raila was already campaigning to change the constitution using OKOA KENYA and Ruto was fully supporting the constitution and the face of "NO CONSTITUTION CHANGE "
The constitution needs to be implemented fully period . ODM are not strategic now they want  14 regions as stipulated in BOMAS draft  Ruto and team might just demand the 23 regions they discussed in Naivasha talks and we see who is going wink first .
 

[RV Pundit]

Rala want 14 counties so he can placate the Johos/Oparanya - to go for regional posts.

But those 14 regions will create huge controversies because small tribes don't want to be sat on.

As for PM and all that - let Uhuru respect Ruto as DPORK first - otherwise it doesn't make sense to add many useless position that PORK can by-pass or ignore.

What is purpose of having PM or DPork or Deputies - if they will be jobless or disrepected like Ruto now or Raila was - as the PM.

For the only constitutional change we need is to move from devolution to federalism...allow counties more power and more money to run local issues - from hiring local police, teachers, levy taxes, build paved roads, etc and name it.

Federal counties will solve many issues...and will reduce our national obsession with PORk.


But not now - counties need another 10yrs to build capacity.

Hence the meaning of building a nation , BBI should be our great grandchildren  reviewing the constitution after fully implementing it and identifying it pitfalls and shortcoming . There is noway the same actors and players who were instrumental in changing the constituion can be in the front line in trying to have it changed .

In 2010 We knew Raila was opposing the constitution and only supported it to suspend a loss to KKK (Uhuru/ Ruto and Kalonzo) which eventually came to pass in 2013 - Same can be said of Ruto -This constitution was his making and in as much as he was is NO he was doing it to capture Riftvalley Kingdom which he eventually did but fundamentally he was supporting the constitution .

By  2013 Raila was already campaigning to change the constitution using OKOA KENYA and Ruto was fully supporting the constitution and the face of "NO CONSTITUTION CHANGE "
The constitution needs to be implemented fully period . ODM are not strategic now they want  14 regions as stipulated in BOMAS draft  Ruto and team might just demand the 23 regions they discussed in Naivasha talks and we see who is going wink first .
 

[Nowayhaha]

NARC 2 will have PORK, DPORK, PM, 2 DPM - which string all Kalonzo, Mdvds, Johos, Oparanyas to back Raila-PK. With more devolution, gender parity, etc - all miracles in 100 days. Ruto hustler coalition will not be credible to have such lineup since he oppose BBI2.

See it Ruto who is flat-footed... no party, no influencers, no machinery. No nothing.

You need to wake up from that Lala land you are in are ,Mudavadi . The miracle will be Raila winning  and its not happening , Didnt happen in 97,2007,2013, 2017  and wont happen in  2022 , you will be here talking about how 2022 elections were rigged

We been here before - Ruto doing KYM job then get overzealous, loudmouth and kicked out like a dog. 2005 - 2 vs 1 No won. 2010 - 2 vs 1 Yes won. Ruto has never been president. He need to create and run a non-Kalenjin party first for at least a few years. He's still at basic level of tripping over himself. How do you lose to a retiring president? This is Guinness record.

You need to study Rutos career first  from how he became an MP to  a minister in his first term as an MP , to how he became a RV kingpin to eventually becoming a President . I will highlight some few moments
A young Ruto defeated a very powerful MOI Minister Reuben Chesire to Win Eldoret North MP seat , He went ahead and started publicy opposing MOI in RiftValley , something unheard off then  .
Raila had managed to position himself as KANU heir ,Ruto managed to have Uhuru seize the seat and chase away Raila and his supporters away from KANU with that he became  Minister In  Home Affairs (Internal Security )
Post 2002 elections once Moi retired they managed to wrestle together with Uhuru  KANU from Biwott & cO ( Remember Biwott had a bigger profile than Ruto in RV) -By 2007-2008 Ruto was ODM by himself all negotiations revolved around Ruto from NARA // Constitution etc
In 2010 constituion he managed to wrestle away RV from Raila and in 2013 became the DP up until now .
He is on his way to becoming the President in 2022
Refer to this week , Raila had 2 big interviews with Nation TV and Citizen  - No one is concerned about him and the interviews . On the other  side Ruto had only one interview with Citizen every one is talking about it - All news are about Ruto Ruto Ruto - Thats a sign

[Nowayhaha]

Noway - on party management Mdvd has a better record than Ruto. You'd think after Kanu, ODM-K, ODM, UDM bloke would know a few tricks. It was bragged he had control of the party - before we discover a clause that say party leader decision is final on all matters - exactly like ODM

Its not over till its over . KANU was the same when Raila so called Tinga faction had managed to stage a coup  in 2001-2002 , remember Kamotho was dethroned from SG post and Saitoti from Vice Chair Post - Remember the speech by Saitoti there comes a time when the nation is more important than an individual .
Ruto single handedly managed to convince Moi to throw Raila under the bus . The same will happen with the Murathes  and Tujus .