Nowayaha,
1) Kibaki was abandoned en-masse by Mt Kenya immediately Moi endorsed Uhuru. Kiambu and a whole 1/3 of GEMA still voted for Uhuru and KANU in the main election.
Bot factual, Only Kiambu & Thika faction of Mt Kenya crossed over to K.AN.U. The rest Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri , Kirinyaga , Laikipia , Nakuru, Muranga , Embu , Tharaka Nithi , Meru and Diaspora stuck with Kibaki and it was a combination of two factors number one being they mistrusted MOI akin to Raila now and the other had been with Kibaki since 1992.
If you know Kiambu politics they almost voted for Charity Ngilu in 1997 because they regarded Kibaki as a weakling most of the people in Kiambu actually voted for MPS and councillors and didnt vote for presidency , hence the reason you would see SDP Mps in Thika and Kiambu and when it came for Presidential votes they were less than the ones polled for MPS one of the reason Kibaki used to claim 97 elections were rigged
Nowayaha,
2) Raila saved Kibaki - otherwise KANU would have won - with possibly Nyachae-Raila and Kibaki-Wamalwa distant third. Ngilu and Wamalwa were welterweight. Raila did heavy lifting after Kibaki got indisposed with road accident.
Between Kibaki and Uhuru , I dont know who would have won , but I was very sure just like in 1997 , Raila would have come No 3. According to the calculations then going by 1997 election results , Kibaki had polled 31% , Wamalwa 8.2% and Ngilu 7.9% totaling 48% against Mois 40% .NAK movement had gained traction even in Coast for the first time Mombasa and Kilifi was tilting towards NAK because of Karisa Maithas influence .
Uhuru would never have won in Coast they just hate simply because of the Kenyatta name.
Nowayaha,
3) Kibaki signed an MOU with LDP. He reneged on it almost immeidately. This is Uhuru 2.0 betrayal of Jubilee and nothing good can come out of it.
What did he renege on ,all NARC members were made Ministers , Raila wanted more than he was entitled to .He was given a very big portfolio as minister of roads and public works , but he used his position to campaign against Kibaki . Raila simply wanted to overthrow Kibaki . from 2003 to 2005 that was a dark era in Kenyan political history where a minister undermined abused and insoboardinated the president . In all honesty Kibaki was focused in ushering a new constitution and highly likely Raila would have been made the new Prime Minister in the new dispesation but he was overzealous
Nowayaha,
4) Kibaki after losing in Bomas - run to Kilifi - and made his own document (BBI style) -and subjected to the referendum - instead of the Bomas draft that had representation of all kenyans.
Now tell me what was the difference between Naivasha talks and Kilifi talks?
Nowayaha,
5) BBI is another kilifi draft - cynical document - it cannot go anywhere without public support - it will be defeated either in parliament or courts or in a referendum - if at all Raila and Uhuru can manage to agree. The current constitution is negotiated document - everyone lost something - and everyone need to get over it - and live with it.
Raila and Uhuru might agree , but people on the ground wont, especially now with Raila calling for reduction of Governors by removal of some County governors and introducing regional governors.
Remember Raila is referencing the regions from Bomas draft which had envisioned 14 regions as below
constitutionnet.org/sites/default/files/TWC%20G-Final%20Report.pdf
Subsequently, the Committee reversed its earlier decisions on the number of
regions and unanimously agreed on fourteen regions namely, Coast, Western,
Nairobi, Central and North Eastern would constitute one region each. Nyanza
and Eastern provinces would have two and four regions respectively. Rift
Valley province would be divided into three regions, namely the North,
Central and South Rift regions.
