The war btw Ruto and Uhuru is now live

[RV Pundit]

• Tweet

From the star...
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2020-08-27-ruto-to-dump-hijacked-jubilee-party-ahead-of-2022-polls/

Ruto is now live on Citizen TV

[RV Pundit]

Ruto just describing Uhuru or Jubilee 2.0 a failure.

[Nowayhaha]

Ruto clearly articulated Jubilees II failure is beause of the handshake and Pandemic.
The real war is the referendumn and the way Ruto is talking he is going to oppose it. He dismissed DP and CS being elected members of parliament.

[RV Pundit]

Battle royale loading - I don't think Uhuru understand just how tenacious Ruto can be once he has made his mind. It clear he has made his mind to fight Uhuru and Raila.

Itabidi Uhuru awache pombe otherwise ICC 2 is loading - best case scenario - a civil war is worst case scenario.

Ruto clearly articulated Jubilees II failure is beause of the handshake and Pandemic.
The real war is the referendumn and the way Ruto is talking he is going to oppose it. He dismissed DP and CS being elected members of parliament.

[GeeMail]

Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?

[RV Pundit]

My high IQ is telling me a civil war is probable because Uhuru has gov and Ruto has warriors - Ruto unless assisinated is not the guy to be cowed.

We were just few days from one in 2007. In Nakuru the police basically split along tribes - and army from Lanet had to be called. Now assume the army split.

A repeat of 2007 will be worse.

My high IQ allows me to predict good and bad things.

There is nothing special about Kenya - that South Sudan or Uganda or Rwanda or Somali - didn't have - you have two powerful leaders engaged in death fight - and country will probably die with it.

This is like Machar-Kiir fight - that put south sudan into a civil war.

The next phase is civil war in gov circles, security forces and the work.

Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?

[GeeMail]

One would imagine high IQ will be deployed to preventing civil war. For example using genius to ensure your man gets a clean path to power. Instead of predicting civil war day in day out. Its a free world though.

[RV Pundit]

Exactly what I am doing. You cannot prevent what you don't know. My job is to be a whistle blow - to warn you - that based on my high IQ - we are entering a very dangerous phase. The fallout btw Uhuru and Ruto is more like Kiir-Machar. The only thing holding the pact is GEMA nation. If GEMA picks Uhuru - Ruto and his people - will move to the next phase. Now 2007 is on everyone mind - so we will have serious arm race - as people won't just sit as ducks.

Kiir had gov - Machar had war-hardened Nuers. I predicted immediately that it was going to be a lose-lose. If Kiir had listened - he would have saved South Sudan. He took 5yrs to understand that he cannot subdue Nuers. Eventually he sued for peace and negotiated. Machar is back as VP.

Now btw Uhuru and Ruto - they either negotiate now - or they will negotiate later with many deaths and suffering - and economy gone.

One would imagine high IQ will be deployed to preventing civil war. For example using genius to ensure your man gets a clean path to power. Instead of predicting civil war day in day out. Its a free world though.

[Nowayhaha]

Battle royale loading - I don't think Uhuru understand just how tenacious Ruto can be once he has made his mind. It clear he has made his mind to fight Uhuru and Raila.

Itabidi Uhuru awache pombe otherwise ICC 2 is loading - best case scenario - a civil war is worst case scenario.

Ruto clearly articulated Jubilees II failure is beause of the handshake and Pandemic.
The real war is the referendumn and the way Ruto is talking he is going to oppose it. He dismissed DP and CS being elected members of parliament.

Uhuru is the making of Ruto, from 2002 , 2005,2013 and 2017. Uhuru and Ruto know each other well.
Its evident Uhuru after the repear of 2017 elections and the swearing in of Raila he wanted to tame Raila and an opportunity came theough handshake. Ruto was not for it and whatever he predicted the handshake will bring  is coming to pass.

Ruto is a very sharp politician and if you followed the interview and listened carefully he knows what he is facing one is the referendumn and secondly its Raila for 2022.
He mentioned he is going to try and resolve the issues with Murathe if unable he will bolt out.

There has be no mention of Gema nor any civil war. If we go back to 2007 P.E.V .It was already predicted by 2004 that incase of any unrests the police force and army would be partisan because it was tribalised and the majority were Kalenjins and their sympathisers . 2022 is 15 years later meaning the dynamics arw different in the army police etc . Where as Kagame was suprised why Kibaki didnt unleash the army to quell the violence in 2022 the army is more mordenized and well balanced .It might actually be used incase there is any form of violence

Having said that, Ruto is confident he will be able to win the referendumn and the elections. In the interview he sounded as a person who is intouch with the ground. Peoples concern are job losses and livelyhoods.

The concern now should be the electral body ,ODM already want it to be overhauled , if they get an opportunity to influence the commisioners who will be picked this might lead to chaos as witnessed in some countries in West Africa

[Nowayhaha]

Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?

Hie is still on the "kulipa deni" mindset  and thats why I always remind him that he is not Ruto.
If he listened to Ruto very well and could read between the lines , Rutos strategy is simply potray Jubilee I was better than Jubilee Ii because of handshake. Clean up Jubilee and if not able too form another party at an opportune time.

[Nowayhaha]

My high IQ is telling me a civil war is probable because Uhuru has gov and Ruto has warriors - Ruto unless assisinated is not the guy to be cowed.

We were just few days from one in 2007. In Nakuru the police basically split along tribes - and army from Lanet had to be called. Now assume the army split.

A repeat of 2007 will be worse.

My high IQ allows me to predict good and bad things.

There is nothing special about Kenya - that South Sudan or Uganda or Rwanda or Somali - didn't have - you have two powerful leaders engaged in death fight - and country will probably die with it.

This is like Machar-Kiir fight - that put south sudan into a civil war.

The next phase is civil war in gov circles, security forces and the work.

Pundit why do you always default to civil war, like you are programmed? This is a political battle of wits and strategy. If you threaten people with brawn then things will get nasty. The other day you were bragging here how you are high IQ and some of us here are low IQ. Have you given up using your wits for this battle?

Rutos war is not with Uhuru but with Raila. Your so called IQ cant even grasp this from the interview. With such insuations you are partly the reason Ruto found himself in ICC , such little talk takes their own form of life.
Actually do you know this was one tactic ODM teied using in 2013 elecrions to divide TNA and URP. They even went ahead and hired journalists and fake warriors to stage manage a war. Luckily Kenyams were clever than that .

[KenyanPlato]

Ruto from what I am hearing was deflated and seemed to be in pain to a point he had watery eyes. He can't take the humiliation anymore. The battle for kalenjins is going to be an uphill one. I do notxthink kalenjins will best served by a war. They ought to figure out how to work with others better. Ruto needs to learn how to build coalitions. He will get there by 2032. He is still young

[KenyanPlato]

Kibaki biggest mistake was firing odm allied ministers from cabinet after losing 2005 referendum. He should have been magnanimous in defeat and negotiated with to adopt Bomas draft with a few changes. He make a mistake that cost him 2007 elections and caused pev.

If ruto can win a referendum then he would stop raila and Uhuru-Raila. I see Uhuru-Raila not going for referendum but very soft amendments that will appeal to the centrist and liberal side of jubilee. This amendments will be thru parliament and if they do not pass they will be a campaign platform..if this happens 2022 will be the referendum for or against these amendments. This will deflate the chance for a possible violent confrontation btw Uhuru-Raila supporters and militant kales..

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Ruto from what I am hearing was deflated and seemed to be in pain to a point he had watery eyes. He can't take the humiliation anymore. The battle for kalenjins is going to be an uphill one. I do notxthink kalenjins will best served by a war. They ought to figure out how to work with others better. Ruto needs to learn how to build coalitions. He will get there by 2032. He is still young

I don't like the guy for reasons other than his tribe. It is his ambition to be PORK at any cost that worries me. Usually folks like that turn into maniacal dictators once in power. We already know he has a voracious for looting public money. Let Uhuru be the last GEMA president, tumechoka na watsapere, and let Moi be the last Kalenjin leader. We need new tribe to be at the helm. I don't care how he gets there, I want Raila Odinga to be our president in 2022.

[RV Pundit]

Politics is a dirty game. Prepare for rough two years. You dont shift blame to me. I am as worried and angry as you're but I cannot lie to you that Uhuru and Ruto fallout is MAD - mutually assured destruction. This I said in 2018 - and will say now.

The only man smilling ear to ear is Raila and KenyaPlato. Raila has destroyed Jubilee. Uhuru is not even aware - he is concentrated on civil war with Ruto.

I don't why you don't get basic stuff. Ruto and Uhuru current war is a civil war at the leadership level. Depending on how it play out - it will go to the streets - and all over. I wouldn't bet on kenya security forces - too tribalized - including the army.

Unlike you - I am brutally honest. I don't sugar coat stuff and I don't get intimidated - I speak my mind.

Uhuru is the making of Ruto, from 2002 , 2005,2013 and 2017. Uhuru and Ruto know each other well.
Its evident Uhuru after the repear of 2017 elections and the swearing in of Raila he wanted to tame Raila and an opportunity came theough handshake. Ruto was not for it and whatever he predicted the handshake will bring  is coming to pass.

Ruto is a very sharp politician and if you followed the interview and listened carefully he knows what he is facing one is the referendumn and secondly its Raila for 2022.
He mentioned he is going to try and resolve the issues with Murathe if unable he will bolt out.

There has be no mention of Gema nor any civil war. If we go back to 2007 P.E.V .It was already predicted by 2004 that incase of any unrests the police force and army would be partisan because it was tribalised and the majority were Kalenjins and their sympathisers . 2022 is 15 years later meaning the dynamics arw different in the army police etc . Where as Kagame was suprised why Kibaki didnt unleash the army to quell the violence in 2022 the army is more mordenized and well balanced .It might actually be used incase there is any form of violence

Having said that, Ruto is confident he will be able to win the referendumn and the elections. In the interview he sounded as a person who is intouch with the ground. Peoples concern are job losses and livelyhoods.

The concern now should be the electral body ,ODM already want it to be overhauled , if they get an opportunity to influence the commisioners who will be picked this might lead to chaos as witnessed in some countries in West Africa

[RV Pundit]

Let see what Uhuru will do now that Ruto has thrown the gauntlet. Will he fire Ruto and his half the cabinet. And that will again plant the seed for next conflict.

Most likely because he is receiving low grade advice - he will try to go for Ruto neck (DPORK) and fire anybody associated with him - and he will definitely run to GEMA and try to win them back.

Kibaki biggest mistake was firing odm allied ministers from cabinet after losing 2005 referendum. He should have been magnanimous in defeat and negotiated with to adopt Bomas draft with a few changes. He make a mistake that cost him 2007 elections and caused pev.

If ruto can win a referendum then he would stop raila and Uhuru-Raila. I see Uhuru-Raila not going for referendum but very soft amendments that will appeal to the centrist and liberal side of jubilee. This amendments will be thru parliament and if they do not pass they will be a campaign platform..if this happens 2022 will be the referendum for or against these amendments. This will deflate the chance for a possible violent confrontation btw Uhuru-Raila supporters and militant kales..

[RV Pundit]

Another thing to ponder uhuru is on course to evict 100,000 kalenjin from mau, burn all their investment and basically create the frontline warriors for the next conflict with nothing to lose.Mau narok 60k.mau nakuru 40k.They see this as nothing but extension of uhuru war with Ruto.Natembeya is on his way to ICC...if he was smart he ask for transfer

[Pajero]

It's good you are coming to terms with reality that Mobutu cannot win 2022 elections.Only route for him is war.kalenjins alone cannot cause civil strife,arrows cannot match bullets.

[RV Pundit]

It's good you are coming to terms with reality that Mobutu cannot win 2022 elections.Only route for him is war.kalenjins alone cannot cause civil strife,arrows cannot match bullets.

You're going too fast...Ruto remain the guy to beat.. it just wont be as easy

[Nowayhaha]

Ruto from what I am hearing was deflated and seemed to be in pain to a point he had watery eyes. He can't take the humiliation anymore. The battle for kalenjins is going to be an uphill one. I do notxthink kalenjins will best served by a war. They ought to figure out how to work with others better. Ruto needs to learn how to build coalitions. He will get there by 2032. He is still young

Ruto perfomed very well , One thing he is gifted with just like Uhuru is that he has good oratory skills , a quick thinker and most importantly can articulate issues . If you really cared to listen to the interview it was not about tribal politics , nop it was about his role in Jubilee I , BBI /Handshake politics  and finally party politics . There was nothing about Mt Kenya , Rift valley etc .

In regards to Kalenjins working with others let us be objective on that matter , from the point of history it is one region who have proven to be team players specifically speaking of Ruto in 2002 they teamed with Uhuru , 2007 teamed with Raila ,2013 ,2017 with Uhuru .The reason why Jubilee I achieved as much as compared to Jubilee II is because of the team work Uhuru got from Ruto and Rift Valley in general. In retrospect Ruto and Riftvalley could have opted to go the route of Raila and Nyanza post 2002 GE aka NARC wars or post 2007 G.E. Grand Coalition wars . The likes of RV Pundit - Alfred Keter and Zachary Cheruiyot were pushing for that but Ruto opted not to take that route . In the second term as Ruto mentioned in the interview Uhuru decided to change the style of management and opted Ruto to fall on the background as he clearly articulated for Uhuru to form his legacy and he is okei with it as he knows how to play his position . No compare that with Raila , as mentioned earlier , He betrayed MOI in 2002 , Kibaki in 2003-2012 , Kalonzo and Mudavadi by  2018 . Remember the pentagon , remember how Nyanza Mps were a nusance to Kibaki and Kalonzo ?

When Ruto is making friends you are the first to claim he is on an early campaign spree . If it is matter coalition , Ruto has been the best as his coalition of URP and TNA was able to win  2013 elections stood the test of time and formed Jubilee parts a coalition of more than 12 parties . Now compare that with ODM ,first Raila was reluctant to form a coalition with Kalonzo , it took the unity of Uhuru and Ruto and change of post/pre election coalition laws for Raila to realize he couldnt go alone in  2013 elections  . after losing he promptly folded CORD coalition a repeat happened with NASA .

After Railas dissapointment of 2013  elections people who cared and were close to him were for the opinion , he should throw in the towel , I believe they were right because his supporters like you only drive him to lose each and every endovour . There is no way Raila can defeat Ruto in 2022 elections . 2013  and 2017  election results  will be like a baby  . The thrashing he will receive you will be astonished