The war btw Ruto and Uhuru is now live

[RV Pundit]

Ruto unlike other politicians has never stagnated because he works very hard.
The Ruto of 2020 is not the Ruto of 5yrs or 10yrs ago.
But you're blind and deaf to see.

Ruto formed URP and it participated in 2013 election.
That was Ruto - a mere MP facing ICC.

Maybe you were blind and deaf then.

This is how URP performed nearly 10yrs ago - we cannot use presidential election because Ruto gave Uhuru his.

National Assembly - 290 elected constituencies
Party       Number of MPs
ODM:       74
TNA:        68
URP:        58
WDM-K):   19

If we included women rep and nominated - I think figures was 78 for URP, 85 for TNA and 96 for ODM.

THE SENATE
Party       Number of Senators
ODM         11
TNA          11
URP          9
WDM-K)     4

TNA had majority in 9 county assemblies - URP had in 7 counties - ODM had in 8 counties.

The county assembly breakdown
ODM 366 MCA in 34 counties
TNA 335 MCA in 32 counties
URP 242 MCA in 29 counties

Now that was Ruto - a mere MP - facing ICC

2017 - Jubilee merged and generally improved their figures - by 5-10%.

We know most of the improvement didn't come from Uhuru - but from Ruto campagins in areas like Western, Coast, Gusii and Ukambani paid off.

Now fast forward to 2020 - Ruto is right in GEMA heartland-  at worst he may split with Uhuru protege - at best - he may lead a GEMA revolt. That is why Ruto killed URP like he did KANU - his future strategy was to tightly couple with GEMA - making it very hard for any breakup - to follow tribal lines.

You guys have jokes.

Let talk about ODM.

ODM began with 50% of parliament in 2007 - about 105Mps in 2007 - that would 170Mps now.

And of 2017 -  10yrs - later - Raila had 62 Mps. Including zero Mp in gusiiland (apart from Arati in Nairobi), zero Mp in Bukusu,zero Mp in most of pastoral areas.

ODM now is Luo party (about 40mps) and Mijikenda (about 20Mps). Then add few Mps from Busia and Kakamega.

Now mijikenda - are bolting out.

So we can predict ODM number in 2022 - will reduce from 62 to 40 mps.

Meanwhile Ruto running alone is likely to end up with 40% of all Mps - about 130mps.

Jubilee will break up - it won't be on TNA/URP well know fault-lines - it will be on Jubilee Asili and Jubilee Corona fault lines.

For Ruto - he will seek to carry the original dream/vision of Jubilee (jubilee 1.0) while the Jubilee Corona will carry BBI/handshake impostor of Raila.

So far - we know Mt Kenya has refused to board MV Corona with Raila welcoming them aboard.

Uhuru we don't know his plan if he has any beyond looting for the final time.

We been here before - Ruto doing KYM job then get overzealous, loudmouth and kicked out like a dog. 2005 - 2 vs 1 No won. 2010 - 2 vs 1 Yes won. Ruto has never been president. He need to create and run a non-Kalenjin party first for at least a few years. He's still at basic level of tripping over himself. How do you lose to a retiring president? This is Guinness record.

[RV Pundit]

You're confusing little party certificates intrigues with real political moves.

Ruto was in KANU - quit KANU when Uhuru/Giddy refused to formalize the merge with LDP to form ODM
Then he quit ODM when Raila proved incompetent and insecure- to form URP and did a coalition with TNA - and then merged URP to form Jubilee.

How many parties are those. KANU -ODM-URP/Jubilee. Those are like 3 parties. KANU-ODM-Jubilee.

Noway - on party management Mdvd has a better record than Ruto. You'd think after Kanu, ODM-K, ODM, UDM bloke would know a few tricks. It was bragged he had control of the party - before we discover a clause that say party leader decision is final on all matters - exactly like ODM

[RV Pundit]

In terms of governors - URP had beaten TNA blue.
ODM (CORD) Kisii, Nyamira, Nairobi, Homabay, Kisumu, Siaya, Busia, Kakamega, Kajiado,
Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit, Taita-Taveta, Kilifi,Kwale, Mombasa,
WDM-K (CORD) Tana River, Garissa, Kitui, Machakos
UDF (Jubilee) Lamu
URP (Jubilee) Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi,Baringo, Narok,
Kericho, Bomet
APK (Jubilee) Meru
TNA (Jubilee) Tharaka, Embu, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Muranga, Kiambu, Laikipia, Nakuru

[Pajero]

We can't gauge ones popularity with the no of mps.Kibaki had 4o mps yet he became president.Rutos urp had 62 elected mps yet 5o of them came from his kalenjin rift,how does that add his national value.Presidency in Kenya is won through popular vote,we are a pure presidential system and not parliamentary.Railas trajectory has been on an upward trend with regards to national vote and popularity,number if mps not withstanding.2007 he got 3.4M votes,2012 he had 5.4 M votes and 2017 he managed 7M votes.So going by the same sequence,he is likely to hit 9M votes in 2022.
Mobutu starts with 1.4 kalenjin votes,tall order.

[RV Pundit]

So Raila and Uhuru get to keep Kalonzo, Madvd and Ruto votes;

Very funny.

You see we can only compare oranges and oranges. I know you wish Ruto would remain a Nandi leader like Koitalel - but the man went national long time ago.

Anyway as far as it goes two opinion polls shows Ruto is leading by far - one had him at 40% of the 80% decided and another by 30%

Raila is stuck at 15-17%.

Now don't start long lectures on opinion polls - because MOAS tells me Ruto is doing well.

Worst - case scenario for Ruto.

1) He will most likely sweep entire RV as a start including GEMA diaspora suing for peace. That is 25% head start. I think some Turkana and Matusa who had entertained Raila woke up recently. Ruto is likely to cut the Maa a slack and support them for Narok governorship. That should make them happy.

2) Ruto is the man to beat in Bukusuland (the 3 Bukusu here will scream murder) - but I believe Weta and his lackey in Kitale - are interested in merger with Ruto for local reasons (they want to be governors of Bungoma and Tranzoia). Ruto is the man to beat in about half of Kakamega.

4) Ruto should write off Gusii unless Matiangi chicken - he will get few votes from there - Matiangi is the new guy. But if Matiangi doesn't get picked for either PORK or DPORK - Ruto get to play.

5) Ruto will carry the Pastoralist vote of North Eastern and NEP. Firing Duale was a dumb move if Uhuru was serious about 2022.1K1S 1M1S propaganda has damaged the relationship btw gov and pastoralist completely.

6) Ruto will carry about half of Coast - ODM has mistreated their only reliable partner - and there is going to be huge fallout. Joho is kaput. Mijikenda will form their own party. The Kilifi-Kwale governor will probably cut a deal with anybody but Raila. Ruto looks natural partner for them - and that transform fortunes there to 70% plus.

7) Now the big one is Nairobi, Eastern and Central. Ruto worse case scenario will get half of those votes as long as he has DPORK from there. Nairobi is going to be interesting - but Sonko will be lethal as always- and Uhuru has mistreated him - Baba will back Luo ODM - so you can see worse case - Ruto if he cuts a deal with Sonko - start at huge advantage.

As you can see Ruto is already racing toward 50% in first round. To nick it - he just need to get maDVD or Kalonzo - and he is past 50%.

That is why BBI crowd are scared. A kikuyu elite candidate like PK cannot beat Ruto. Raila cannot be sold in GEMA.

Ruto just need to stay alive.

Once Uhuru realize Ruto is unstoppable he will cut a deal and cut his boys loose.

Ruto has national appeal now (uncharted territory for GEMA and Non-GEMA to support one candidate), he has a revolutionary message (dynasty versus hustlers), he has money and he has some part of gov. Uhuru has to completely purge the gov to remove Ruto allies - he is probably 1/4 way done. As long as Ruto has NIS/Intelligence as good as Uhuru has - then Deep State/Harambee house boys plans will easy to beat.

We can't gauge ones popularity with the no of mps.Kibaki had 4o mps yet he became president.Rutos urp had 62 elected mps yet 5o of them came from his kalenjin rift,how does that add his national value.Presidency in Kenya is won through popular vote,we are a pure presidential system and not parliamentary.Railas trajectory has been on an upward trend with regards to national vote and popularity,number if mps not withstanding.2007 he got 3.4M votes,2012 he had 5.4 M votes and 2017 he managed 7M votes.So going by the same sequence,he is likely to hit 9M votes in 2022.
Mobutu starts with 1.4 kalenjin votes,tall order.

[Pajero]

You are too hypothetical,as of opinion polls,should it worry you that Ruto is now at 30% Down from 40%.That Raila is up to 17% up from 7% yet he has not even started campaigning.Have you factored a gema candidate coming in the picture.
On voting patterns,your narrative of Raila loosing coast has been there ever since I knew you,it didn't start today,Ruto and Uhuru had all the machinery but still didn't manage,what makes you think Ruto now who looks subdued and partyless will manage.The likes is Omar,jicho oeve,jumwa will be lucky to retain their seats.

Now to western,take this to bank,luhyas will first vote Raila,then Mdvd,then Wetangula then Mobutu in that order.Raila got more votes than Uhuru in washiali,Didimus,constituencies and others.so be advised accordingly.
As of Nairobi,don't even go there.Let Mobutu first win a sit in the city with his new kalenjin outfit before we even start talking.As of central,you and me know very well that a kikuyu will vote for even a dog dressed in their preffered party colours rather than an outsider.The signs are already out there.just wait for the Limuru declaration.
As for running mate,kindly advice king  Mobutu not to waste his time picking a kikuyu,let him go for kithure Kindiki if not bonny Khalwale.I sleep.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto has no street cred in steering big ship. He never run the show in KANU, ODM, Jubilee but was duped to feel important without real power. He is at Raila NDP or Wiper level of bulk Kalenjin and few pastoralists. Until you have a real cohesive hustler party - talk is cheap.

You're confusing little party certificates intrigues with real political moves.

Ruto was in KANU - quit KANU when Uhuru/Giddy refused to formalize the merge with LDP to form ODM
Then he quit ODM when Raila proved incompetent and insecure- to form URP and did a coalition with TNA - and then merged URP to form Jubilee.

How many parties are those. KANU -ODM-URP/Jubilee. Those are like 3 parties. KANU-ODM-Jubilee.

Noway - on party management Mdvd has a better record than Ruto. You'd think after Kanu, ODM-K, ODM, UDM bloke would know a few tricks. It was bragged he had control of the party - before we discover a clause that say party leader decision is final on all matters - exactly like ODM

[Nefertiti]

We know Kiraitu APK and Kiunjuri GNU backed TNA for PORK. Ruto URP was 3rd after ODM, TNA - this has not changed to-date. His 3 year mean machine is now backing his arch-rival for president.

In terms of governors - URP had beaten TNA blue.
ODM (CORD) Kisii, Nyamira, Nairobi, Homabay, Kisumu, Siaya, Busia, Kakamega, Kajiado,
Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit, Taita-Taveta, Kilifi,Kwale, Mombasa,
WDM-K (CORD) Tana River, Garissa, Kitui, Machakos
UDF (Jubilee) Lamu
URP (Jubilee) Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi,Baringo, Narok,
Kericho, Bomet
APK (Jubilee) Meru
TNA (Jubilee) Tharaka, Embu, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Muranga, Kiambu, Laikipia, Nakuru

[RV Pundit]

Somebody who run the gov cannot run a party - you're funny.
When Tuju and Murathe failed to run nomination - Uhuru called Ruto and he fixed it in 3 days.

Ruto can run anything.

Ruto has no street cred in steering big ship. He never run the show in KANU, ODM, Jubilee but was duped to feel important without real power. He is at Raila NDP or Wiper level of bulk Kalenjin and few pastoralists. Until you have a real cohesive hustler party - talk is cheap.

You're confusing little party certificates intrigues with real political moves.

Ruto was in KANU - quit KANU when Uhuru/Giddy refused to formalize the merge with LDP to form ODM
Then he quit ODM when Raila proved incompetent and insecure- to form URP and did a coalition with TNA - and then merged URP to form Jubilee.

How many parties are those. KANU -ODM-URP/Jubilee. Those are like 3 parties. KANU-ODM-Jubilee.

Noway - on party management Mdvd has a better record than Ruto. You'd think after Kanu, ODM-K, ODM, UDM bloke would know a few tricks. It was bragged he had control of the party - before we discover a clause that say party leader decision is final on all matters - exactly like ODM

[RV Pundit]

Raila has been stuck at 15-17%. That is about Luos and few diehards. He cannot go to 7%. He will go end at 10%.

The rest of your drivel sounds like oil and water don't mix that had your disappearing for many years.

You have zero credibility and worse zero conviction to stand by your thoughts.

You're going to disappear again. At least Robina disappear for a day or two.

Btw 2008-2013 - you gave us prediction with the finality of a oracle - and now you're back again.

Very funny.

You are too hypothetical,as of opinion polls,should it worry you that Ruto is now at 30% Down from 40%.That Raila is up to 17% up from 7% yet he has not even started campaigning.Have you factored a gema candidate coming in the picture.
On voting patterns,your narrative of Raila loosing coast has been there ever since I knew you,it didn't start today,Ruto and Uhuru had all the machinery but still didn't manage,what makes you think Ruto now who looks subdued and partyless will manage.The likes is Omar,jicho oeve,jumwa will be lucky to retain their seats.

Now to western,take this to bank,luhyas will first vote Raila,then Mdvd,then Wetangula then Mobutu in that order.Raila got more votes than Uhuru in washiali,Didimus,constituencies and others.so be advised accordingly.
As of Nairobi,don't even go there.Let Mobutu first win a sit in the city with his new kalenjin outfit before we even start talking.As of central,you and me know very well that a kikuyu will vote for even a dog dressed in their preffered party colours rather than an outsider.The signs are already out there.just wait for the Limuru declaration.
As for running mate,kindly advice king  Mobutu not to waste his time picking a kikuyu,let him go for kithure Kindiki if not bonny Khalwale.I sleep.

[RV Pundit]

You're a kiddo in politics. Those of us who watched Mois, Matibas, Jaramogi, Kibaki - then small boys like Raila - before he became big - knows politics is dynamic.
You're stuck in 2007 - when Raila was all that.
Raila and ODM are KAPUT.

Next election - they will be confined to Luo Nyanza. Raila since he won 2007 election has been on a downward decline.

Ruto is the new guy - the only guy capable of uniting GEMA and Non-GEMA.

Sio MCHEZO. There cannot be two Non-GEMA leaders - Raila is Out. Ruto is IN.  Raila inherited it from MO1. GEMA elite if they don't reconcile with Ruto - will split.

You probably didn't see when Moi was colossus who'd defeat all the big tribes Moi beat Kibaki to bulb with entire GEMA in his tow.

Politics is dynamic.

If your predictive model - cannot yield 70-80% rejection of the current leadership every 5yrs - then do something else.

We know Kiraitu APK and Kiunjuri GNU backed TNA for PORK. Ruto URP was 3rd after ODM, TNA - this has not changed to-date. His 3 year mean machine is now backing his arch-rival for president.

[Nefertiti]

The only credible opinion poll had Ruto at 30% before Jubilee funeral. 40% was a briefcase marketing company from London noone heard of before.

1M1S has left Ruto in a bad place with Gema - the pretence that he loves them is dead. In Coast as everywhere else he has lightweights like Omar Hassan - distant 3rd in Mombasa for governor. I am not sure when Joho became kaput - he had 70% of the vote with Omar 10%. Kingi and Joho remain the kings in Coast and they back Raila. Luhya he has Barasa, Washiali and the big loser Khalwale - who was beat 70-20 by Oparanya. All big kahuna back Raila - Otichillo, Ojaamong, Oparanya, Khaemba, Eugene name it. Mdvd and Weta have vehemently distanced themselves from Ruto. Kambaland Kalonzo is presently in Handshake. The governors are Raila-leaning. Gusii even before Matiang'i Ruto had a DG and few MPs - the rest Raila.

Ruto popularity is theory and speculation. He actually remain with URP: Kalenjin, part MATUSA, part NFD. He has no party - it Guinness Record that his party back his opponent - it akin to GOP backing Joe Biden    

You are too hypothetical,as of opinion polls,should it worry you that Ruto is now at 30% Down from 40%.That Raila is up to 17% up from 7% yet he has not even started campaigning.Have you factored a gema candidate coming in the picture.
On voting patterns,your narrative of Raila loosing coast has been there ever since I knew you,it didn't start today,Ruto and Uhuru had all the machinery but still didn't manage,what makes you think Ruto now who looks subdued and partyless will manage.The likes is Omar,jicho oeve,jumwa will be lucky to retain their seats.

Now to western,take this to bank,luhyas will first vote Raila,then Mdvd,then Wetangula then Mobutu in that order.Raila got more votes than Uhuru in washiali,Didimus,constituencies and others.so be advised accordingly.
As of Nairobi,don't even go there.Let Mobutu first win a sit in the city with his new kalenjin outfit before we even start talking.As of central,you and me know very well that a kikuyu will vote for even a dog dressed in their preffered party colours rather than an outsider.The signs are already out there.just wait for the Limuru declaration.
As for running mate,kindly advice king  Mobutu not to waste his time picking a kikuyu,let him go for kithure Kindiki if not bonny Khalwale.I sleep.

[RV Pundit]

You're confused. 30% was the briefcase - 40% was credible. Raila long lost many non-gema - he was basically down to Mijikenda and Busia-Luo-luhya.  Mijikenda have bolted. This is news to you. Joho is kaput - without mijikenda and with angry Mombasa. Pray who else in Non-gema will support Raila - Not gusii with Matiangi. Bukusu long bolted out. Maragolis are with maDVD. Kambas are confused. Pastoralist are with Ruto.

Now Ruto and GEMA - that is where the fight is on - but in the meantime Ruto is winning Non-GEMA and still has the support of GEMA.

GEMA are confused and scared. Both elite and laity. It's btw a hard place and a rock. They see Raila and they see Ruto. They prefer Ruto 10 times but of course wished they had yet another serious guy on play.

Worse case - Ruto will fight btw GEMA homegrown talent - Not Raila. Raila just won't fly.  Ruto will offer GEMA DPORK and 50% for the reboot of Jubilee dream. That I believe is not negotiable. The Non-GEMA will have to accept Ruto as their leader.

The only credible opinion poll had Ruto at 30% before Jubilee funeral. 40% was a briefcase marketing company from London noone heard of before.

1M1S has left Ruto in a bad place with Gema - the pretence that he loves them is dead. In Coast as everywhere else he has lightweights like Omar Hassan - distant 3rd in Mombasa for governor. I am not sure when Joho became kaput - he had 70% of the vote with Omar 10%. Kingi and Joho remain the kings in Coast and they back Raila. Luhya he has Barasa, Washiali and the big loser Khalwale - who was beat 70-20 by Oparanya. All big kahuna back Raila - Otichillo, Ojaamong, Oparanya, Khaemba, Eugene name it. Mdvd and Weta have vehemently distanced themselves from Ruto. Kambaland Kalonzo is presently in Handshake. The governors are Raila-leaning. Gusii even before Matiang'i Ruto had a DG and few MPs - the rest Raila.

Ruto popularity is theory and speculation. He actually remain with URP: Kalenjin, part MATUSA, part NFD. He has no party - it Guinness Record that his party back his opponent - it akin to GOP backing Joe Biden    

You are too hypothetical,as of opinion polls,should it worry you that Ruto is now at 30% Down from 40%.That Raila is up to 17% up from 7% yet he has not even started campaigning.Have you factored a gema candidate coming in the picture.
On voting patterns,your narrative of Raila loosing coast has been there ever since I knew you,it didn't start today,Ruto and Uhuru had all the machinery but still didn't manage,what makes you think Ruto now who looks subdued and partyless will manage.The likes is Omar,jicho oeve,jumwa will be lucky to retain their seats.

Now to western,take this to bank,luhyas will first vote Raila,then Mdvd,then Wetangula then Mobutu in that order.Raila got more votes than Uhuru in washiali,Didimus,constituencies and others.so be advised accordingly.
As of Nairobi,don't even go there.Let Mobutu first win a sit in the city with his new kalenjin outfit before we even start talking.As of central,you and me know very well that a kikuyu will vote for even a dog dressed in their preffered party colours rather than an outsider.The signs are already out there.just wait for the Limuru declaration.
As for running mate,kindly advice king  Mobutu not to waste his time picking a kikuyu,let him go for kithure Kindiki if not bonny Khalwale.I sleep.

[Nefertiti]

Pajero theory of GEMA candidate remain plausible but far fetched. Unless say Raila cut his losses and back PK.

Raila has been stuck at 15-17%. That is about Luos and few diehards. He cannot go to 7%. He will go end at 10%.

The rest of your drivel sounds like oil and water don't mix that had your disappearing for many years.

You have zero credibility and worse zero conviction to stand by your thoughts.

You're going to disappear again. At least Robina disappear for a day or two.

Btw 2008-2013 - you gave us prediction with the finality of a oracle - and now you're back again.

Very funny.

[RV Pundit]

Yes a desperate Raila is like a desperate Kalonzo. But like formulae shown - the Non-GEMA are not going with him and it still come short - if he auction Luos only - they won't get anywhere - Ruto will remain with Non-gema - and if Raila moves - Kalonzo/MaDVD will have to move in opposite direction - to spite him.

Pajero theory of GEMA candidate remain plausible but far fetched. Unless say Raila cut his losses and back PK.

[Nefertiti]

Current crop vs almighty Moi or Jomo is apples vs oranges. Uhuru or Ruto does not have the leverage of jailing people or auctioning them unless they join Kanu. Raila leaped from 10% NDP to 50% LDP-ODM thru trojan 1 and Orange No. At least ODM has been thinning piece by piece - it is still 3X NDP. Ruto leaped 20% URP to 50% Jubilee - which has basically poofed in 3 years - he is back to URP factory settings. GEMA iko wenyewe - PK loading pole pole. I told you 2 years ago - as you clang to Uhurutopia - that Ruto will be clobbered until he needs GEMA. We are actually there at the juncture of Raila 2012 desperation for Kalenjin.

You're a kiddo in politics. Those of us who watched Mois, Matibas, Jaramogi, Kibaki - then small boys like Raila - before he became big - knows politics is dynamic.
You're stuck in 2007 - when Raila was all that.
Raila and ODM are KAPUT.

Next election - they will be confined to Luo Nyanza. Raila since he won 2007 election has been on a downward decline.

Ruto is the new guy - the only guy capable of uniting GEMA and Non-GEMA.

Sio MCHEZO. There cannot be two Non-GEMA leaders - Raila is Out. Ruto is IN.  Raila inherited it from MO1. GEMA elite if they don't reconcile with Ruto - will split.

You probably didn't see when Moi was colossus who'd defeat all the big tribes Moi beat Kibaki to bulb with entire GEMA in his tow.

Politics is dynamic.

If your predictive model - cannot yield 70-80% rejection of the current leadership every 5yrs - then do something else.

[RV Pundit]

You like bending the truth. Raila at age of Ruto run in NDP and came short at 10%. He joined KANU and is short-changed almost immediately. Well - he was powerful minister and KANU sec for 2yrs. He formed LDP and they won with NAK - 67 - a coalition. LDP coalition is immediately betrayed. And by 2005 - they were all fired. Raila goes back to opposition benches and join up with Ruto - ODM - and you know the long story - quarrelsome coalition with kibaki - until he was sent back permanently it appears to opposition benches. Now Ruto - rise up in KANU - enjoy KANU for like 10yrs - opposition for 5 yrs - NARA with Raila for 3yrs - ICC for 2yrs - and back to gov - where for 5yrs he was like president - until today where he still DPORK albeit without porfolio - and still have many of his guys in gov. He is like Raila in NARA.

The future is funny. One day you're in Kagwe. Next PK. Next I don't know who.

You think kenya leadership is that easy - just fish a candidate, take him to Limuru conference center and declare him GEMA candidate - and go swear him in statehouse.

MAAJABU.

PK - has never even been a minister and is now going to be our president through some MAGIC WAD waved by BBI.

My friend make PK even minister of toilets - first. Kagwe is out with Corona.

PK somebody who came last in 2013 and could not win Nairobi - whose greatest achievement is managing 20million in CDF - will now manage 50million in a 4 trillion budget

Does a Samburu herdsman even know him at least the name.

Moi at least tried to prop Uhuru - although the fall he got from Kenyans was resounding. If WSR is competing with PK  - it will be uncontested.  kibaki v Uhuru.

PORK hapana mchezo. Ask Raila.

Current crop vs almighty Moi or Jomo is apples vs oranges. Uhuru or Ruto does not have the leverage of jailing people or auctioning them unless they join Kanu. Raila leaped from 10% NDP to 50% LDP-ODM thru trojan 1 and Orange No. At least ODM has been thinning piece by piece - it is still 3X NDP. Ruto leaped 20% URP to 50% Jubilee - which has basically poofed in 3 years - he is back to URP factory settings. GEMA iko wenyewe - PK loading pole pole. I told you 2 years ago - as you clang to Uhurutopia - that Ruto will be clobbered until he needs GEMA. We are actually there at the juncture of Raila 2012 desperation for Kalenjin.

[Nefertiti]

As usual we can rehash the influencer line-up. Coast or Luhya will not miraculously drop from Raila into Ruto basket - the key figures there back Raila. What we have now is Handshake vs Hustler camps - with Mdvd 3rd wheel distancing himself from Ruto. I don't know where you get the illusion of any big shifts. Non-GEMA remain scattered - URP, ODM, Wiper, ANC, FORD-K. GEMA remain in flux with biggest kahuna Uhuru systematically pulling the lever for Raila. Uhuru/GEMA are losing the 1M1S debacle - it the losers who will be bitter not the non-GEMA winners. Murkomen is the anti-GEMA face in senate.

Raila BBI Manifesto - is NARC redux - easier to string folks as PORK, VP, PM, DPM with some credibility. Ruto like Kanu cannot credibly have such a lineup after vehemently opposing BBI. Likes of Weta have recoiled to governor. Kalonzo has been ready to be Treasury CS under Handshake GNU These folks need some hope - as their SH pipedream become apparent - which is the hope BBI give them.

Yes a desperate Raila is like a desperate Kalonzo. But like formulae shown - the Non-GEMA are not going with him and it still come short - if he auction Luos only - they won't get anywhere - Ruto will remain with Non-gema - and if Raila moves - Kalonzo/MaDVD will have to move in opposite direction - to spite him.

[RV Pundit]

So you think Kenya politics is social media - buy a few influencers- and win. Please understand the nexus btw community interest and community leaders. Those leaders seen to no longer carry the community interest are unloaded. And you have headline...like SHOCK DEFEAT.

As usual we can rehash the influencer line-up. Coast or Luhya will not miraculously drop from Raila into Ruto basket - the key figures there back Raila. What we have now is Handshake vs Hustler camps - with Mdvd 3rd wheel distancing himself from Ruto. I don't know where you get the illusion of any big shifts. Non-GEMA remain scattered - URP, ODM, Wiper, ANC, FORD-K. GEMA remain in flux with biggest kahuna Uhuru systematically pulling the lever for Raila. Uhuru/GEMA are losing the 1M1S debacle - it the losers who will be bitter not the non-GEMA winners. Murkomen is the anti-GEMA face in senate.

Raila BBI Manifesto - is NARC redux - easier to string folks as PORK, VP, PM, DPM with some credibility. Ruto like Kanu cannot credibly have such a lineup after vehemently opposing BBI. Likes of Weta have recoiled to governor. Kalonzo has been ready to be Treasury CS under Handshake GNU These folks need some hope - as their SH pipedream become apparent - which is the hope BBI give them.

Yes a desperate Raila is like a desperate Kalonzo. But like formulae shown - the Non-GEMA are not going with him and it still come short - if he auction Luos only - they won't get anywhere - Ruto will remain with Non-gema - and if Raila moves - Kalonzo/MaDVD will have to move in opposite direction - to spite him.

[Nefertiti]

Kibaki beating Uhuru was basically Raila beating Moi young turks lead by Ruto. That was trojan 1 as Rainbow morphed into LDP. Basically leaped from Luo NDP to today's ODM. Raila was never co-president or even VP - more like non-existent PM. Kibaki never promised to back him in future - it was mere 50-50 MOU. Uhuruto MOU was only guaranteed by 50%+1 - soon as they didn't need him he was tossed out like bad food. Uhuru has all but endorsed Raila.

PK is a wimp yes - but on the flip is most marketable GEMA - who is good for Raila DPORK. This paperweight weakness make him a great stooge candidate. You really overrate Ruto - he has never won any election as head of the ticket - at least Raila claim to be rigged. 2007 he was basically forced to back Raila. Like in Gusii - Ruto never had anything there as they voted Raila and Uhuru. Matiang'i is not going for PORK he is very loyal Uhuru dog. Gusii is all but locked into Raila basket.

Where is Ruto leading again?  Outside URP pastoralists - he is assured of nothing. Luhya distance themselves - including Weta. Ukambani Kalonzo is Handshake and distance himself from Ruto. You can google it. The 3 governors - were singing Raila as recently as Kibra. Ruto has Muthama and few MPs. GEMA he has to square with incumbent PORK - who seem sworn to lock him out. Then he has to contend with machinery you deny is not a factor. Then he need to herd his flock into new hustler party. Big hurdles.

You like bending the truth. Raila at age of Ruto run in NDP and came short at 10%. He joined KANU and is short-changed almost immediately. Well - he was powerful minister and KANU sec for 2yrs. He formed LDP and they won with NAK - 67 - a coalition. LDP coalition is immediately betrayed. And by 2005 - they were all fired. Raila goes back to opposition benches and join up with Ruto - ODM - and you know the long story - quarrelsome coalition with kibaki - until he was sent back permanently it appears to opposition benches. Now Ruto - rise up in KANU - enjoy KANU for like 10yrs - opposition for 5 yrs - NARA with Raila for 3yrs - ICC for 2yrs - and back to gov - where for 5yrs he was like president - until today where he still DPORK albeit without porfolio - and still have many of his guys in gov. He is like Raila in NARA.

The future is funny. One day you're in Kagwe. Next PK. Next I don't know who.

You think kenya leadership is that easy - just fish a candidate, take him to Limuru conference center and declare him GEMA candidate - and go swear him in statehouse.

MAAJABU.

PK - has never even been a minister and is now going to be our president through some MAGIC WAD waved by BBI.

My friend make PK even minister of toilets - first. Kagwe is out with Corona.

PK somebody who came last in 2013 and could not win Nairobi - whose greatest achievement is managing 20million in CDF - will now manage 50million in a 4 trillion budget

Does a Samburu herdsman even know him at least the name.

Moi at least tried to prop Uhuru - although the fall he got from Kenyans was resounding. If WSR is competing with PK  - it will be uncontested.  kibaki v Uhuru.

PORK hapana mchezo. Ask Raila.