Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.

[Githunguri]

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Kiambu
Muranga
Nyeri
Kirinyaga
Tharaka Nithi
Meru
Embu
Laikipia
Nyandarua
Nakuru
Nairobi-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Kajiado-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Machakos
Taita Taveta
Kitui
Makueni

OVER 50% Counties.
Gusii
Mombasa/Kwale-GEMA Kamba Mijikenda
Lamu-GEMA Kamba
Nyamira
Isiolo

Toss ups.
If two North Eastern counties join them.
If Natembeya Malala Wamalwa mobilize 40%+ Luhya.

They WIN.

The biggest looser in this power play is ODM.They have lost the Kamba Kisii and luhya swing vote/top up across the country.Its that top up that made them win most seats in Nairobi and coastal areas.ODM becomes a luo affair.Raila is politically useless.

[patel]

Wind of righteousness is on Gachagua's back pastor Dorcas has poured anointing oil on Riggy G. The man is accepted countrywide. Hi Cousins! Never seen Kalonzo this energized. If he plays his cards right he might nick it.
Raila is done. The man is on limp mode. How will his politics of handshake work without him on the ballot?

[RV Pundit]

22 counties...not enough.Add two more.

[Tactician]

Anyone with over 30% of national vote will be definition get at least 25% in the four cushitic counties of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit - as the clan politics in these counties means that they cannot vote as a united bloc.

That said, Riggy G seems to be countering the WSR/RAO coalition by branding it a nilotic affair - while uniting the Bantu coalition.

Seems like we just might see a South Sudan vs Congo ticket in 2027.  Perfect antidote for the tribalist angle that WSR/RAO have been preaching     

[Githunguri]

22 counties...not enough.Add two more.

Pundit.

How many counties does Ruto/Raila coalition have?
Narok
Elgeyo Marakwet
Bomet
Nandi
Uasin Ngishu
West pokot
Turkana
Kericho
Siaya
Migori
Busia
Homabay
Kisumu
Vihiga.

Toss ups:
Bungoma
Trans zoia
Kakamega
Wajir
Marsabit
Mandera
Kwale
Lamu

If Riggy G endorses Kalonzo.Its over round one with over 60%.

[Githunguri]

Wind of righteousness is on Gachagua's back pastor Dorcas has poured anointing oil on Riggy G. The man is accepted countrywide. Hi Cousins! Never seen Kalonzo this energized. If he plays his cards right he might nick it.
Raila is done. The man is on limp mode. How will his politics of handshake work without him on the ballot?

Riggy G is a legend.Fighting Ruto,Raila Uhuru combination is not a joke.They wanted to finish him because they knew his potential.

[RV Pundit]

The Luhya and Mijikenda communities are unlikely to support such a Bantu-oriented ticket, as their socio-cultural identities have been significantly shaped by Nilotic and Islamic influences, respectively. As a result, this kind of alliance is more likely to resonate within the Gusii, GEMA, and Kamba regions. However, even then, the ticket faces several strategic challenges. For broader appeal and viability,

Kalonzo would need to lead it—

Matiang’i, on the other hand, Kalonzo bolt out -

Then without Matiangi you lose half Gusii back to Ruto

So that ticket will be Mt kenya +Kamba - givem them 40%.

Ruto wins with 60%.

Anyone with over 30% of national vote will be definition get at least 25% in the four cushitic counties of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit - as the clan politics in these counties means that they cannot vote as a united bloc.

That said, Riggy G seems to be countering the WSR/RAO coalition by branding it a nilotic affair - while uniting the Bantu coalition.

Seems like we just might see a South Sudan vs Congo ticket in 2027.  Perfect antidote for the tribalist angle that WSR/RAO have been preaching     

[RV Pundit]

RiggyG is impeached. Sijui how long it will take for you guys to get it. HE IS FINISHED.

Riggy G is a legend.Fighting Ruto,Raila Uhuru combination is not a joke.They wanted to finish him because they knew his potential.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto will likely 25% in almost all counties except maybe Kikuyu 4 - of Nyandarua, Muranga, Kirinyanga and Nyeri.

22 counties...not enough.Add two more.

Pundit.

How many counties does Ruto/Raila coalition have?
Narok
Elgeyo Marakwet
Bomet
Nandi
Uasin Ngishu
West pokot
Turkana
Kericho
Siaya
Migori
Busia
Homabay
Kisumu
Vihiga.

Toss ups:
Bungoma
Trans zoia
Kakamega
Wajir
Marsabit
Mandera
Kwale
Lamu

If Riggy G endorses Kalonzo.Its over round one with over 60%.

[Tactician]

You still have that WSR will get votes in Mt Kenya? Delusions

Ruto will likely 25% in almost all counties except maybe Kikuyu 4 - of Nyandarua, Muranga, Kirinyanga and Nyeri.

22 counties...not enough.Add two more.

Pundit.

How many counties does Ruto/Raila coalition have?
Narok
Elgeyo Marakwet
Bomet
Nandi
Uasin Ngishu
West pokot
Turkana
Kericho
Siaya
Migori
Busia
Homabay
Kisumu
Vihiga.

Toss ups:
Bungoma
Trans zoia
Kakamega
Wajir
Marsabit
Mandera
Kwale
Lamu

If Riggy G endorses Kalonzo.Its over round one with over 60%.

[Tactician]

We are headed for a runoff.  Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.

The Luhya and Mijikenda communities are unlikely to support such a Bantu-oriented ticket, as their socio-cultural identities have been significantly shaped by Nilotic and Islamic influences, respectively. As a result, this kind of alliance is more likely to resonate within the Gusii, GEMA, and Kamba regions. However, even then, the ticket faces several strategic challenges. For broader appeal and viability,

Kalonzo would need to lead it—

Matiang’i, on the other hand, Kalonzo bolt out -

Then without Matiangi you lose half Gusii back to Ruto

So that ticket will be Mt kenya +Kamba - givem them 40%.

Ruto wins with 60%.

Anyone with over 30% of national vote will be definition get at least 25% in the four cushitic counties of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit - as the clan politics in these counties means that they cannot vote as a united bloc.

That said, Riggy G seems to be countering the WSR/RAO coalition by branding it a nilotic affair - while uniting the Bantu coalition.

Seems like we just might see a South Sudan vs Congo ticket in 2027.  Perfect antidote for the tribalist angle that WSR/RAO have been preaching     

[RV Pundit]

Which multiple candidates?

We are headed for a runoff.  Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.

[Tactician]

60%??

1) The NARC wave of 2002 got Kibaki 61%.  Can WSR replicate such hope with the burden of incumbency? Impossible

2) In fact, in all of the prez elections since 1992, only once (Kibaki 2002) has a candidate got over 52%.  the 2017 repeat election does not feature cos of the boycott.

3) Elections with an incumbent prez have typically been the most difficult elections.  From 1997, 2007, 2017.  The transition elections are easier cos of fresh candidates from at least one side of the divide (2002, 2012, 2022). 

The Luhya and Mijikenda communities are unlikely to support such a Bantu-oriented ticket, as their socio-cultural identities have been significantly shaped by Nilotic and Islamic influences, respectively. As a result, this kind of alliance is more likely to resonate within the Gusii, GEMA, and Kamba regions. However, even then, the ticket faces several strategic challenges. For broader appeal and viability,

Kalonzo would need to lead it—

Matiang’i, on the other hand, Kalonzo bolt out -

Then without Matiangi you lose half Gusii back to Ruto

So that ticket will be Mt kenya +Kamba - givem them 40%.

Ruto wins with 60%.

Anyone with over 30% of national vote will be definition get at least 25% in the four cushitic counties of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit - as the clan politics in these counties means that they cannot vote as a united bloc.

That said, Riggy G seems to be countering the WSR/RAO coalition by branding it a nilotic affair - while uniting the Bantu coalition.

Seems like we just might see a South Sudan vs Congo ticket in 2027.  Perfect antidote for the tribalist angle that WSR/RAO have been preaching     

[Tactician]

A) The minimum number of major candidates is three (defining major as a ticket with more than 5%)

i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi/Melon/Gachagua/Wamalwa
iii) Omtatah/Maraga integrity coalition

B) These candidates can likely increase to more than three  - if there are disagreements as to the top of the ticket on the opposition side

i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi & others
iii) Melon & others
iv) Integrity ticket

C) The tickets can even increase to four should RAO decide to fulfil his life dream of becoming prez - this being his last chance

i) WSR & others
ii) RAO & others
iii) Matiangi & others
iv) Melon & others
v) Integrity ticket

In the meantime, let's wait for SCORK to hear the 2026/2027 election date dispute - coming up in July.

Which multiple candidates?

We are headed for a runoff.  Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru got 54% in 2017 improving from 51%.
Again we have Raila to close the deal here.
Raila easily command 33% of the national vote;
Ruto easily command 33% of the national vote;
The remainder is in Mt kenya + Ukambani.
I dont see any other formidable formation.
Those are the 3 main formation.

Matiangi can chip 3% from Raila and 3%  - if he becomes ticket holder.
Raila and Ruto each drop to 30%.

GEMA (+Ukambani) can improve to 40% at that point.

Combine Raila+RUto is 60%.

If we have Raila, Kalonzo, Ruto running  - then we have run-off

Kenya elections are easy to predict - so why go for run-off when people can sit and negotiate.

Ruto has most of aces going into 2022 - he is incumbent - has money - has solid base - has 2032 +Dpork to dish.

Next is Raila but old age -

Mt kenya we dont know how they end - Rigathi has taken early lead but he is impeached - mt kenya believe somehow the court will rule in his favour

Kalonzo must run - 75yrs - as opposition pork or he bolt out -- and try to get DPORK in Ruto and aim for 2032.

60%??

1) The NARC wave of 2002 got Kibaki 61%.  Can WSR replicate such hope with the burden of incumbency? Impossible

2) In fact, in all of the prez elections since 1992, only once (Kibaki 2002) has a candidate got over 52%.  the 2017 repeat election does not feature cos of the boycott.

3) Elections with an incumbent prez have typically been the most difficult elections.  From 1997, 2007, 2017.  The transition elections are easier cos of fresh candidates from at least one side of the divide (2002, 2012, 2022). 

[RV Pundit]

Anything starting with Matiangi is a joke.

Ruto+Raila - END of debate - why are you continueing

Matiangi can only fly in Gusii+Kikuyus.
Kalonzo and Kambas will not board that - and consider it a big insult.

So quit those silly tweet kind of scenarios - sijui Omtatah/Maraga - those will be competing with spoilt votes - PESA ikimwagwa they will be nowhere on the map

And engage in proper political punditry.

Not make-believe stuff - sijui Eugene or Natembeya or Omtatah or Magara - those are online jokes.

A) The minimum number of major candidates is three (defining major as a ticket with more than 5%)

i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi/Melon/Gachagua/Wamalwa
iii) Omtatah/Maraga integrity coalition

B) These candidates can likely increase to more than three  - if there are disagreements as to the top of the ticket on the opposition side

i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi & others
iii) Melon & others
iv) Integrity ticket

C) The tickets can even increase to four should RAO decide to fulfil his life dream of becoming prez - this being his last chance

i) WSR & others
ii) RAO & others
iii) Matiangi & others
iv) Melon & others
v) Integrity ticket

In the meantime, let's wait for SCORK to hear the 2026/2027 election date dispute - coming up in July.

Which multiple candidates?

We are headed for a runoff.  Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Why would Miji kenda be in an alliance with other bantus? What's the justification?? Again this strategy by RiggyG is set to cause animosity and tribalism on a large scale,

[Tactician]

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.

Uhuru got 54% in 2017 improving from 51%.
Again we have Raila to close the deal here.
Raila easily command 33% of the national vote;
Ruto easily command 33% of the national vote;
The remainder is in Mt kenya + Ukambani.
I dont see any other formidable formation.
Those are the 3 main formation.

Matiangi can chip 3% from Raila and 3%  - if he becomes ticket holder.
Raila and Ruto each drop to 30%.

GEMA (+Ukambani) can improve to 40% at that point.

Combine Raila+RUto is 60%.

If we have Raila, Kalonzo, Ruto running  - then we have run-off

Kenya elections are easy to predict - so why go for run-off when people can sit and negotiate.

Ruto has most of aces going into 2022 - he is incumbent - has money - has solid base - has 2032 +Dpork to dish.

Next is Raila but old age -

Mt kenya we dont know how they end - Rigathi has taken early lead but he is impeached - mt kenya believe somehow the court will rule in his favour

Kalonzo must run - 75yrs - as opposition pork or he bolt out -- and try to get DPORK in Ruto and aim for 2032.

60%??

1) The NARC wave of 2002 got Kibaki 61%.  Can WSR replicate such hope with the burden of incumbency? Impossible

2) In fact, in all of the prez elections since 1992, only once (Kibaki 2002) has a candidate got over 52%.  the 2017 repeat election does not feature cos of the boycott.

3) Elections with an incumbent prez have typically been the most difficult elections.  From 1997, 2007, 2017.  The transition elections are easier cos of fresh candidates from at least one side of the divide (2002, 2012, 2022). 

[Tactician]

Ruto + Raila just failed in AU the other day - after you repeatedly telling us how the genius WSR has this sewn up.


As for Matiangi vs Melon, if they dont agree, then again we head into runoff against the WSR/RAO ticket. 

Anything starting with Matiangi is a joke.

Ruto+Raila - END of debate - why are you continueing

Matiangi can only fly in Gusii+Kikuyus.
Kalonzo and Kambas will not board that - and consider it a big insult.

So quit those silly tweet kind of scenarios - sijui Omtatah/Maraga - those will be competing with spoilt votes - PESA ikimwagwa they will be nowhere on the map

And engage in proper political punditry.

Not make-believe stuff - sijui Eugene or Natembeya or Omtatah or Magara - those are online jokes.

A) The minimum number of major candidates is three (defining major as a ticket with more than 5%)

i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi/Melon/Gachagua/Wamalwa
iii) Omtatah/Maraga integrity coalition

B) These candidates can likely increase to more than three  - if there are disagreements as to the top of the ticket on the opposition side

i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi & others
iii) Melon & others
iv) Integrity ticket

C) The tickets can even increase to four should RAO decide to fulfil his life dream of becoming prez - this being his last chance

i) WSR & others
ii) RAO & others
iii) Matiangi & others
iv) Melon & others
v) Integrity ticket

In the meantime, let's wait for SCORK to hear the 2026/2027 election date dispute - coming up in July.

Which multiple candidates?

We are headed for a runoff.  Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.

[RV Pundit]

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.