Uhuru got 54% in 2017 improving from 51%.
Again we have Raila to close the deal here.
Raila easily command 33% of the national vote;
Ruto easily command 33% of the national vote;
The remainder is in Mt kenya + Ukambani.
I dont see any other formidable formation.
Those are the 3 main formation.
Matiangi can chip 3% from Raila and 3% - if he becomes ticket holder.
Raila and Ruto each drop to 30%.
GEMA (+Ukambani) can improve to 40% at that point.
Combine Raila+RUto is 60%.
If we have Raila, Kalonzo, Ruto running - then we have run-off
Kenya elections are easy to predict - so why go for run-off when people can sit and negotiate.
Ruto has most of aces going into 2022 - he is incumbent - has money - has solid base - has 2032 +Dpork to dish.
Next is Raila but old age -
Mt kenya we dont know how they end - Rigathi has taken early lead but he is impeached - mt kenya believe somehow the court will rule in his favour
Kalonzo must run - 75yrs - as opposition pork or he bolt out -- and try to get DPORK in Ruto and aim for 2032.
60%??
1) The NARC wave of 2002 got Kibaki 61%. Can WSR replicate such hope with the burden of incumbency? Impossible
2) In fact, in all of the prez elections since 1992, only once (Kibaki 2002) has a candidate got over 52%. the 2017 repeat election does not feature cos of the boycott.
3) Elections with an incumbent prez have typically been the most difficult elections. From 1997, 2007, 2017. The transition elections are easier cos of fresh candidates from at least one side of the divide (2002, 2012, 2022).