Author Topic: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.  (Read 1078 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2025, 07:36:19 PM »
Kagame messed it up.
He fcked SADC at wrong time....completely embarrassed South Africa, TZ, Burundi and Malawi
DRC blamed us.
And SADC smarting from defeat did Ruto in.
Its nature of politics.

If you saw voting - you'd have seen Raila lead - then once SADC candidate withdrew - last minute candidate - they went for Djiboutti.

Ruto + Raila just failed in AU the other day - after you repeatedly telling us how the genius WSR has this sewn up.


As for Matiangi vs Melon, if they dont agree, then again we head into runoff against the WSR/RAO ticket. 


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2025, 07:41:01 PM »
He is political neophytes.
He only know Kalonzo has Kambas.
He doesnt know all the 47 tribes have owners and mini owners.
You need to sell your vision to them first.
Of course he was nasty to everyone - and he has no friends - not even in Murima.
Now he is going round with Bantu cousin thing - a Mijikenda cant relate - neither can Luhya.

This very hopeless opposition; They badly Uhuru; who can hopefully resusciate national network;

Rigathi and Kalonzo outside Ukambani and GEMA - have some footing in Kajiado - kwingine ZERO ZERO - maybe Malala and Natembeya & Wamalwa - no Mps.

Siasa ya Kenya is complicated - there are layers.

Even in Mt kenya - Rigathi has to do a radical overthrow - he has no buy in in the leadership - so he has do revolution.

Why would Miji kenda be in an alliance with other bantus? What's the justification?? Again this strategy by RiggyG is set to cause animosity and tribalism on a large scale,

Offline Tactician

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2025, 08:13:22 PM »
But you couldn't see this SADC angle even one day to election?

All I am saying is, stop the ad hominem.  Just present your views.  No one has the monopoly of punditry and silliness.

Kagame messed it up.
He fcked SADC at wrong time....completely embarrassed South Africa, TZ, Burundi and Malawi
DRC blamed us.
And SADC smarting from defeat did Ruto in.
Its nature of politics.

If you saw voting - you'd have seen Raila lead - then once SADC candidate withdrew - last minute candidate - they went for Djiboutti.

Ruto + Raila just failed in AU the other day - after you repeatedly telling us how the genius WSR has this sewn up.


As for Matiangi vs Melon, if they dont agree, then again we head into runoff against the WSR/RAO ticket. 


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2025, 08:22:34 PM »
I saw SADC and GOMA - and that is what killed Raila;
I dont see Matiangi.
And that is where we disagree.

Matiangi has a Kalonzo problem. It very simple. Nothing personal.

Been here on this forum for 25yrs - my record speak for itself

But you couldn't see this SADC angle even one day to election?

All I am saying is, stop the ad hominem.  Just present your views.  No one has the monopoly of punditry and silliness.


Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2025, 09:55:05 PM »
Poor Raila is cooked either way cause Coast and NFD will also remain with Ruto should he re-join opposition.

Let us see if RiggyG can be the next rock-star politician: after Moi, Raila, Ruto.

Kiambu
Muranga
Nyeri
Kirinyaga
Tharaka Nithi
Meru
Embu
Laikipia
Nyandarua
Nakuru
Nairobi-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Kajiado-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Machakos
Taita Taveta
Kitui
Makueni

OVER 50% Counties.
Gusii
Mombasa/Kwale-GEMA Kamba Mijikenda
Lamu-GEMA Kamba
Nyamira
Isiolo

Toss ups.
If two North Eastern counties join them.
If Natembeya Malala Wamalwa mobilize 40%+ Luhya.

They WIN.

The biggest looser in this power play is ODM.They have lost the Kamba Kisii and luhya swing vote/top up across the country.Its that top up that made them win most seats in Nairobi and coastal areas.ODM becomes a luo affair.Raila is politically useless.
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Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #25 on: June 08, 2025, 10:02:37 PM »
22 counties...not enough.Add two more.

I see 21 listed.
He is counting on 2 more North Eastern and Trans Nzoia (cause Natembeya).
It seems Malala will not deliver Kakamega.

Makes it 24.

Fanciful stuff, main whistle iko mbali.
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Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #26 on: June 08, 2025, 10:22:55 PM »
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.

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Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #27 on: June 09, 2025, 05:05:22 AM »
Agreed.
Until we figure out Raila game - we have elections.
I cant quite figure out what ODM byzantine gameplan is.
What I know Kalonzo wont deputize anyone in opposition - age is not on his side.
Raila has same age problem
Uhuru is playing his card close - the 3 expert in gov - are his

Hii ingine ya Gen Zs and Matiangi and Gachagua is non-starter

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Offline patel

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #28 on: June 09, 2025, 05:45:07 AM »
Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.


Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #29 on: June 09, 2025, 10:44:50 AM »
Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.

You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North.  :D

Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.

♫♫ I'm Yours
You're mine
Like Paradise  ~ song by Sade

Offline Tactician

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #30 on: June 09, 2025, 08:44:41 PM »
This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics. 

If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?

A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa

The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics.  A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases. 

Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube.  Good luck!


Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.

You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North.  :D

Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.


Offline patel

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #31 on: June 09, 2025, 09:45:02 PM »
There is no way WSR and limping Raila control  70% that would be complete domination, no opposition, none. Raila number is 9% Luo and maybe 5% nationwide. Ruto I would say 11% kale and 8% nationwide.  Combined they around 30- 35% nationwide.
Riggy G can close that gap very easily and very fast. However, I think Kalonzo would be more ideal candidate. Cousins from the lake will have a chance to 'return hand' to our Kamba cousins. 
This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics. 

If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?

A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa

The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics.  A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases. 

Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube.  Good luck!


Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.

You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North.  :D

Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.


Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #32 on: June 09, 2025, 09:46:55 PM »
Protests and rallies happen globally - right now there is mad clashes and teargas closeby in LA as people protest ICE raids. Trump has called in the National Guard (KDF 👀)  as police cars get torched.

What is easy - rallying and sloganeering.
What is HARD - converting excitement into votes.

Don't read too much into rallies.

There were 2 PORK candidates in 2022: Raila and Ruto approx 100% roughly split 50-50.

From KK Riggy has bolted with GEMA 22%.
From Azimio Kalonzo has bolted with Kamba 9%.
From both Matiang'i has bolted with Gusii 6%.

100 - 22 - 9 - 6 = 63% remains with Ruto-Raila.

Obviously not ALL GEMA or Kamba or Gusii will bolt - some are still with Ruto and Raila.
Mbeere by-election will tell us what is the real situation on the ground in Embu.

Question for Tactician and patel
You say Gen Z is a tangible voting block. Youths (people with 18-35 years for our purposes) are 30% by Census 2019. You can google it.
Assume they are fairly evenly spread in all of Kenya so that 30% of Mbeere North is Gen Z.

In that case, the expected result would be as follows:
◼No 1. Maraga-Omtata candidate 30% - hands-down winner  :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
◼No 2, 3, 4 DCP, DP, UDA, Jubilee, bla bla

What do you say to this?

This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics. 

If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?

A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa

The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics.  A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases. 

Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube.  Good luck!


Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.

You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North.  :D

Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.

♫♫ I'm Yours
You're mine
Like Paradise  ~ song by Sade

Offline Tactician

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #33 on: June 09, 2025, 10:03:37 PM »
Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.

How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??



Protests and rallies happen globally - right now there is mad clashes and teargas closeby in LA as people protest ICE raids. Trump has called in the National Guard (KDF 👀)  as police cars get torched.

What is easy - rallying and sloganeering.
What is HARD - converting excitement into votes.

Don't read too much into rallies.

There were 2 PORK candidates in 2022: Raila and Ruto approx 100% roughly split 50-50.

From KK Riggy has bolted with GEMA 22%.
From Azimio Kalonzo has bolted with Kamba 9%.
From both Matiang'i has bolted with Gusii 6%.

100 - 22 - 9 - 6 = 63% remains with Ruto-Raila.

Obviously not ALL GEMA or Kamba or Gusii will bolt - some are still with Ruto and Raila.
Mbeere by-election will tell us what is the real situation on the ground in Embu.

Question for Tactician and patel
You say Gen Z is a tangible voting block. Youths (people with 18-35 years for our purposes) are 30% by Census 2019. You can google it.
Assume they are fairly evenly spread in all of Kenya so that 30% of Mbeere North is Gen Z.

In that case, the expected result would be as follows:
◼No 1. Maraga-Omtata candidate 30% - hands-down winner  :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
◼No 2, 3, 4 DCP, DP, UDA, Jubilee, bla bla

What do you say to this?

This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics. 

If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?

A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa

The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics.  A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases. 

Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube.  Good luck!


Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.

You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North.  :D

Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #34 on: June 09, 2025, 10:11:52 PM »
Dont relie on kenya fatally flawed opinion polls.
Personally there are layers.
You watch key politicians - including mps/senators - they watch the ground.
If they move - you have to analyze - if movement is from public or their stomach.
I am not seeing much movement.
Not even in Mt kenya.
In short there is stalemate - Ruto is only known known - the rest are unkown - RiggyG is impeached - Kalonzo has issues - Matiangi is neophytes - Raila is too old.
For now - most politicians and such - are saying its too early.
Ruto still the guy.

Gen Zs ni kelele tu.

We dont worry about Kelele

Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.

How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #35 on: June 09, 2025, 10:20:01 PM »
Gachagua is a non-starter..he will be effective in locking ruto out of central but he won't be useful elsewhere

Offline Tactician

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #36 on: June 09, 2025, 10:27:36 PM »
There is a huge underbelly of voters who simply don't feel represented by the politicians in office - which explains why the June 24 protests were not led by any of the political class. 

The unsaid reality is that there is a generational shift in the current political leadership - all the top dog politicians have been running for campaigning for 20years+

 - RAO has been running for prez for 28years, since 1997

- Kalonzo has been running for prez for 17years, since 2007 and has been a nondescript minister since 1992, 33 years ago

- MDVD has been running for prez for 23 years, since 2002, and like Melon been a colourless minister since 1989, 36 years ago

- WSR has been running for prez for 12 years, since 2013, and his narrative for being the brains under the drunkard UK has been busted wide open in the last two years

 - Gachagua is the new kid in the block, but the fella is brainless, tactless and a goon.

Why hasn't the political class moved? They simply do not have options, just like the hapless Kenyans.  Everyone is simply sitting tight, awaiting to see what unfolds.


Dont relie on kenya fatally flawed opinion polls.
Personally there are layers.
You watch key politicians - including mps/senators - they watch the ground.
If they move - you have to analyze - if movement is from public or their stomach.
I am not seeing much movement.
Not even in Mt kenya.
In short there is stalemate - Ruto is only known known - the rest are unkown - RiggyG is impeached - Kalonzo has issues - Matiangi is neophytes - Raila is too old.
For now - most politicians and such - are saying its too early.
Ruto still the guy.

Gen Zs ni kelele tu.

We dont worry about Kelele

Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.

How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #37 on: June 09, 2025, 11:38:00 PM »
My question: whether a Gen Z candidate (say in Omtata party NRA) would win in Mbeere? That is the effect of what you are saying.

Mbeere by-election is soon so we have a good way to settle the matter. Much better than rally crowds, protests and OPs. RiggyG et al mettle will be tested.

Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.

How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??



Protests and rallies happen globally - right now there is mad clashes and teargas closeby in LA as people protest ICE raids. Trump has called in the National Guard (KDF 👀)  as police cars get torched.

What is easy - rallying and sloganeering.
What is HARD - converting excitement into votes.

Don't read too much into rallies.

There were 2 PORK candidates in 2022: Raila and Ruto approx 100% roughly split 50-50.

From KK Riggy has bolted with GEMA 22%.
From Azimio Kalonzo has bolted with Kamba 9%.
From both Matiang'i has bolted with Gusii 6%.

100 - 22 - 9 - 6 = 63% remains with Ruto-Raila.

Obviously not ALL GEMA or Kamba or Gusii will bolt - some are still with Ruto and Raila.
Mbeere by-election will tell us what is the real situation on the ground in Embu.

Question for Tactician and patel
You say Gen Z is a tangible voting block. Youths (people with 18-35 years for our purposes) are 30% by Census 2019. You can google it.
Assume they are fairly evenly spread in all of Kenya so that 30% of Mbeere North is Gen Z.

In that case, the expected result would be as follows:
◼No 1. Maraga-Omtata candidate 30% - hands-down winner  :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
◼No 2, 3, 4 DCP, DP, UDA, Jubilee, bla bla

What do you say to this?

This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics. 

If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?

A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa

The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics.  A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases. 

Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube.  Good luck!


Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.

You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North.  :D

Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.

Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.

We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.

FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.

Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.

Their 2007 45% - 48%  add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.

Ati WSR + RAO  = 60%? Ha!

If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election.  Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.   

For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent. 

As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void.  Useless for analysis.

♫♫ I'm Yours
You're mine
Like Paradise  ~ song by Sade

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #38 on: June 09, 2025, 11:50:51 PM »
This may all be true and reasonable.

I am asking if a Gen Z candidate can win actual elections? We have Mbeere around the corner to test the theory.

If Gen Z are with Matiang'i - Jubilee should come out on top easy.

There is a huge underbelly of voters who simply don't feel represented by the politicians in office - which explains why the June 24 protests were not led by any of the political class. 

The unsaid reality is that there is a generational shift in the current political leadership - all the top dog politicians have been running for campaigning for 20years+

 - RAO has been running for prez for 28years, since 1997

- Kalonzo has been running for prez for 17years, since 2007 and has been a nondescript minister since 1992, 33 years ago

- MDVD has been running for prez for 23 years, since 2002, and like Melon been a colourless minister since 1989, 36 years ago

- WSR has been running for prez for 12 years, since 2013, and his narrative for being the brains under the drunkard UK has been busted wide open in the last two years

 - Gachagua is the new kid in the block, but the fella is brainless, tactless and a goon.

Why hasn't the political class moved? They simply do not have options, just like the hapless Kenyans.  Everyone is simply sitting tight, awaiting to see what unfolds.


Dont relie on kenya fatally flawed opinion polls.
Personally there are layers.
You watch key politicians - including mps/senators - they watch the ground.
If they move - you have to analyze - if movement is from public or their stomach.
I am not seeing much movement.
Not even in Mt kenya.
In short there is stalemate - Ruto is only known known - the rest are unkown - RiggyG is impeached - Kalonzo has issues - Matiangi is neophytes - Raila is too old.
For now - most politicians and such - are saying its too early.
Ruto still the guy.

Gen Zs ni kelele tu.

We dont worry about Kelele

Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.

How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??
♫♫ I'm Yours
You're mine
Like Paradise  ~ song by Sade

Offline patel

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Re: Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.
« Reply #39 on: Today at 05:30:47 AM »
Obvious Genz cannot win by themselves but they can swing elections.  My query was beside Luo 9% which other kabila is willing to follow Raila blindly?  Same with Kenya kwanza which other community is willing to be shafted after Gema.
This may all be true and reasonable.

I am asking if a Gen Z candidate can win actual elections? We have Mbeere around the corner to test the theory.

If Gen Z are with Matiang'i - Jubilee should come out on top easy.

There is a huge underbelly of voters who simply don't feel represented by the politicians in office - which explains why the June 24 protests were not led by any of the political class. 

The unsaid reality is that there is a generational shift in the current political leadership - all the top dog politicians have been running for campaigning for 20years+

 - RAO has been running for prez for 28years, since 1997

- Kalonzo has been running for prez for 17years, since 2007 and has been a nondescript minister since 1992, 33 years ago

- MDVD has been running for prez for 23 years, since 2002, and like Melon been a colourless minister since 1989, 36 years ago

- WSR has been running for prez for 12 years, since 2013, and his narrative for being the brains under the drunkard UK has been busted wide open in the last two years

 - Gachagua is the new kid in the block, but the fella is brainless, tactless and a goon.

Why hasn't the political class moved? They simply do not have options, just like the hapless Kenyans.  Everyone is simply sitting tight, awaiting to see what unfolds.


Dont relie on kenya fatally flawed opinion polls.
Personally there are layers.
You watch key politicians - including mps/senators - they watch the ground.
If they move - you have to analyze - if movement is from public or their stomach.
I am not seeing much movement.
Not even in Mt kenya.
In short there is stalemate - Ruto is only known known - the rest are unkown - RiggyG is impeached - Kalonzo has issues - Matiangi is neophytes - Raila is too old.
For now - most politicians and such - are saying its too early.
Ruto still the guy.

Gen Zs ni kelele tu.

We dont worry about Kelele

Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.

How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??