Protests and rallies happen globally - right now there is mad clashes and teargas closeby in LA as people protest ICE raids. Trump has called in the National Guard (KDF 👀) as police cars get torched.
What is easy - rallying and sloganeering.
What is HARD - converting excitement into votes.
Don't read too much into rallies.
There were 2 PORK candidates in 2022: Raila and Ruto approx 100% roughly split 50-50.
From KK Riggy has bolted with GEMA 22%.
From Azimio Kalonzo has bolted with Kamba 9%.
From both Matiang'i has bolted with Gusii 6%.
100 - 22 - 9 - 6 = 63% remains with Ruto-Raila.
Obviously not ALL GEMA or Kamba or Gusii will bolt - some are still with Ruto and Raila.
Mbeere by-election will tell us what is the real situation on the ground in Embu.
Question for Tactician and patelYou say Gen Z is a tangible voting block. Youths (people with 18-35 years for our purposes) are 30% by Census 2019. You can google it.
Assume they are fairly evenly spread in all of Kenya so that 30% of Mbeere North is Gen Z.
In that case, the expected result would be as follows:
◼No 1. Maraga-Omtata candidate 30% - hands-down winner
◼No 2, 3, 4 DCP, DP, UDA, Jubilee, bla bla
What do you say to this?
This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics.
If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?
A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa
The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics. A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases.
Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube. Good luck!
Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.
You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North.
Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
