Kalonzo Gachagua coalition. 25+ counties.

[RV Pundit]

Yes four or so by elections will gives us hint. The online echo chamber is not real. We have seen this before. Peter Kenneth is a victim. He was defeated by Spoilt votes.

[Tactician]

David Ndii called the online group an echo chamber and dared them to hit the streets.  The rest is history.

The days of Peter Kenneth (2012) were when internet connectivity was among the few.  Now online has become the largest medium of conversation - ahead of all others whether radio or tv. 

And why the UDA/ODM gov't is keen on regulating it

Yes four or so by elections will gives us hint. The online echo chamber is not real. We have seen this before. Peter Kenneth is a victim. He was defeated by Spoilt votes.

[Tactician]

Exactly. 

The GenZ - under 30 - are the most unemployed, still in college, no payslips, and thus do not pay any taxes directly.  Why would they protest so massively about taxes yet they hit them the least - as compared to the working classes?

World over, the young protest physically embodying the mood of the wider population - the grievances of their parents/older siblings who are silently protesting.

So while it is unlikely, improbable, that their will be a candidate in their age group, the GenZ vote will resonate across the demographics and become a swing vote.

If their voice didn't matter, why is the gov't is keen on regulating social media, using cybercrime laws to arrest, and killing the young to suppress their voice?

They set the agenda

Obvious Genz cannot win by themselves but they can swing elections.  My query was beside Luo 9% which other kabila is willing to follow Raila blindly?  Same with Kenya kwanza which other community is willing to be shafted after Gema.

This may all be true and reasonable.

I am asking if a Gen Z candidate can win actual elections? We have Mbeere around the corner to test the theory.

If Gen Z are with Matiang'i - Jubilee should come out on top easy.

There is a huge underbelly of voters who simply don't feel represented by the politicians in office - which explains why the June 24 protests were not led by any of the political class. 

The unsaid reality is that there is a generational shift in the current political leadership - all the top dog politicians have been running for campaigning for 20years+

 - RAO has been running for prez for 28years, since 1997

- Kalonzo has been running for prez for 17years, since 2007 and has been a nondescript minister since 1992, 33 years ago

- MDVD has been running for prez for 23 years, since 2002, and like Melon been a colourless minister since 1989, 36 years ago

- WSR has been running for prez for 12 years, since 2013, and his narrative for being the brains under the drunkard UK has been busted wide open in the last two years

 - Gachagua is the new kid in the block, but the fella is brainless, tactless and a goon.

Why hasn't the political class moved? They simply do not have options, just like the hapless Kenyans.  Everyone is simply sitting tight, awaiting to see what unfolds.

Dont relie on kenya fatally flawed opinion polls.
Personally there are layers.
You watch key politicians - including mps/senators - they watch the ground.
If they move - you have to analyze - if movement is from public or their stomach.
I am not seeing much movement.
Not even in Mt kenya.
In short there is stalemate - Ruto is only known known - the rest are unkown - RiggyG is impeached - Kalonzo has issues - Matiangi is neophytes - Raila is too old.
For now - most politicians and such - are saying its too early.
Ruto still the guy.

Gen Zs ni kelele tu.

We dont worry about Kelele

Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.

How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??

[RV Pundit]

Hakuna kitu Gen Zs.
Everyone will go to their tribes.
They already have.
They have no successfuly gen z protest or actions.
Online everyone is already battling tribal secretarian interest.
Just a few hold out stuck with Magara.

Dont waste time with funny theories.

As we wait for new registration figures - this remain the template for next election.

Eastern Bantu: 32.28% (15,193,248) - split into 3 (Kikuyus 17%, Meru 4%, Kambas 10%).
Western Bantu: 14.50% (6,823,842) - Luhyas
Mara Bantu: 6.41% (3,017,089) - Gusii 5%
Coastal Bantu: 6.13% (2,886,635) - Mijikenda+pokomo
Southern Nilotic: 13.51% (6,358,113) - Kalenjin
Western Nilotic: 10.77% (5,066,966)
Eastern Nilotic: 6.28% (2,956,837) - Matusa+iteso
Cushitic: 7.16% (3,370,756)
Others small tribes (3%)

So far

Gachagua+Kalonzo have huge play in Eastern Europe - Gachagua is impeached - Kalonzo ought to lead but ?
Ruto and Raila share the rest of the spoils - Ruto as incumbent has advantage.
Matiangi shows promise in GUsii backyard - but because someone lied to them he will be pork. PORK with 5% of vote?

Exactly. 

The GenZ - under 30 - are the most unemployed, still in college, no payslips, and thus do not pay any taxes directly.  Why would they protest so massively about taxes yet they hit them the least - as compared to the working classes?

World over, the young protest physically embodying the mood of the wider population - the grievances of their parents/older siblings who are silently protesting.

So while it is unlikely, improbable, that their will be a candidate in their age group, the GenZ vote will resonate across the demographics and become a swing vote.

If their voice didn't matter, why is the gov't is keen on regulating social media, using cybercrime laws to arrest, and killing the young to suppress their voice?

They set the agenda

[Tactician]

WSR got 25% of the vote in Ukambani - including in Kalonzo's home county of Kitui - all cos of the hustler narrative.  This hustler/dynasty bifurcation sowed the seeds of economics into the political equation - leading to the protests last year.

This bucketing of people into tribal groupings is an attempt to run away from this economic angle - as the UDA battalion has realised they simply do not have the competence and time to revive the economy by Dec 2026 in time for the elections.

Hence why UDA no longer talks about the bottom up - which was their primary campaign. They have now shifted to "national unity" - a dog whistle for tribal groupings to isolate others.

And again, why WSR, RAO, Melon & Gachagua are all keen to paint Matiang'i as first and foremost a Kisii leader.  Cos his performance record eats into their tribal bases.

Hakuna kitu Gen Zs.
Everyone will go to their tribes.
They already have.
They have no successfuly gen z protest or actions.
Online everyone is already battling tribal secretarian interest.
Just a few hold out stuck with Magara.

Dont waste time with funny theories.

As we wait for new registration figures - this remain the template for next election.

Eastern Bantu: 32.28% (15,193,248) - split into 3 (Kikuyus 17%, Meru 4%, Kambas 10%).
Western Bantu: 14.50% (6,823,842) - Luhyas
Mara Bantu: 6.41% (3,017,089) - Gusii 5%
Coastal Bantu: 6.13% (2,886,635) - Mijikenda+pokomo
Southern Nilotic: 13.51% (6,358,113) - Kalenjin
Western Nilotic: 10.77% (5,066,966)
Eastern Nilotic: 6.28% (2,956,837) - Matusa+iteso
Cushitic: 7.16% (3,370,756)
Others small tribes (3%)

So far

Gachagua+Kalonzo have huge play in Eastern Europe - Gachagua is impeached - Kalonzo ought to lead but ?
Ruto and Raila share the rest of the spoils - Ruto as incumbent has advantage.
Matiangi shows promise in GUsii backyard - but because someone lied to them he will be pork. PORK with 5% of vote?

Exactly. 

The GenZ - under 30 - are the most unemployed, still in college, no payslips, and thus do not pay any taxes directly.  Why would they protest so massively about taxes yet they hit them the least - as compared to the working classes?

World over, the young protest physically embodying the mood of the wider population - the grievances of their parents/older siblings who are silently protesting.

So while it is unlikely, improbable, that their will be a candidate in their age group, the GenZ vote will resonate across the demographics and become a swing vote.

If their voice didn't matter, why is the gov't is keen on regulating social media, using cybercrime laws to arrest, and killing the young to suppress their voice?

They set the agenda

[RV Pundit]

You dont get politics; You're hopeless;

Ruto has had his play in Ukambani - with many URP guys whom he financed heavily - mostly since 2010 COK constitutions.

Secondly AZIMIO didnt pick Kalonzo - not even as deputy - and some kambas protested.

Ruto also entered a deal with Mutua.

Hustler and all these issues - based talks is just PR that belies a TRIBAL narrative.

And tribal narrative is NOT as easy as Gachagua shouting my cousin,

There are communities including leadership invested for years in Ruto or Raila.

It not going to be easy to remove Raila in part of coast or luhyas or matusa - because he has created political network in key leadership of those areas.

WSR got 25% of the vote in Ukambani - including in Kalonzo's home county of Kitui - all cos of the hustler narrative.  This hustler/dynasty bifurcation sowed the seeds of economics into the political equation - leading to the protests last year.

This bucketing of people into tribal groupings is an attempt to run away from this economic angle - as the UDA battalion has realised they simply do not have the competence and time to revive the economy by Dec 2026 in time for the elections.

Hence why UDA no longer talks about the bottom up - which was their primary campaign. They have now shifted to "national unity" - a dog whistle for tribal groupings to isolate others.

And again, why WSR, RAO, Melon & Gachagua are all keen to paint Matiang'i as first and foremost a Kisii leader.  Cos his performance record eats into their tribal bases.

Hakuna kitu Gen Zs.
Everyone will go to their tribes.
They already have.
They have no successfuly gen z protest or actions.
Online everyone is already battling tribal secretarian interest.
Just a few hold out stuck with Magara.

Dont waste time with funny theories.

As we wait for new registration figures - this remain the template for next election.

Eastern Bantu: 32.28% (15,193,248) - split into 3 (Kikuyus 17%, Meru 4%, Kambas 10%).
Western Bantu: 14.50% (6,823,842) - Luhyas
Mara Bantu: 6.41% (3,017,089) - Gusii 5%
Coastal Bantu: 6.13% (2,886,635) - Mijikenda+pokomo
Southern Nilotic: 13.51% (6,358,113) - Kalenjin
Western Nilotic: 10.77% (5,066,966)
Eastern Nilotic: 6.28% (2,956,837) - Matusa+iteso
Cushitic: 7.16% (3,370,756)
Others small tribes (3%)

So far

Gachagua+Kalonzo have huge play in Eastern Europe - Gachagua is impeached - Kalonzo ought to lead but ?
Ruto and Raila share the rest of the spoils - Ruto as incumbent has advantage.
Matiangi shows promise in GUsii backyard - but because someone lied to them he will be pork. PORK with 5% of vote?

Exactly. 

The GenZ - under 30 - are the most unemployed, still in college, no payslips, and thus do not pay any taxes directly.  Why would they protest so massively about taxes yet they hit them the least - as compared to the working classes?

World over, the young protest physically embodying the mood of the wider population - the grievances of their parents/older siblings who are silently protesting.

So while it is unlikely, improbable, that their will be a candidate in their age group, the GenZ vote will resonate across the demographics and become a swing vote.

If their voice didn't matter, why is the gov't is keen on regulating social media, using cybercrime laws to arrest, and killing the young to suppress their voice?

They set the agenda

[Tactician]

How to know you are on the right path - when they respond with insults. 

You dont get politics; You're hopeless;

Ruto has had his play in Ukambani - with many URP guys whom he financed heavily - mostly since 2010 COK constitutions.

Secondly AZIMIO didnt pick Kalonzo - not even as deputy - and some kambas protested.

Ruto also entered a deal with Mutua.

Hustler and all these issues - based talks is just PR that belies a TRIBAL narrative.

And tribal narrative is NOT as easy as Gachagua shouting my cousin,

There are communities including leadership invested for years in Ruto or Raila.

It not going to be easy to remove Raila in part of coast or luhyas or matusa - because he has created political network in key leadership of those areas.

WSR got 25% of the vote in Ukambani - including in Kalonzo's home county of Kitui - all cos of the hustler narrative.  This hustler/dynasty bifurcation sowed the seeds of economics into the political equation - leading to the protests last year.

This bucketing of people into tribal groupings is an attempt to run away from this economic angle - as the UDA battalion has realised they simply do not have the competence and time to revive the economy by Dec 2026 in time for the elections.

Hence why UDA no longer talks about the bottom up - which was their primary campaign. They have now shifted to "national unity" - a dog whistle for tribal groupings to isolate others.

And again, why WSR, RAO, Melon & Gachagua are all keen to paint Matiang'i as first and foremost a Kisii leader.  Cos his performance record eats into their tribal bases.

Hakuna kitu Gen Zs.
Everyone will go to their tribes.
They already have.
They have no successfuly gen z protest or actions.
Online everyone is already battling tribal secretarian interest.
Just a few hold out stuck with Magara.

Dont waste time with funny theories.

As we wait for new registration figures - this remain the template for next election.

Eastern Bantu: 32.28% (15,193,248) - split into 3 (Kikuyus 17%, Meru 4%, Kambas 10%).
Western Bantu: 14.50% (6,823,842) - Luhyas
Mara Bantu: 6.41% (3,017,089) - Gusii 5%
Coastal Bantu: 6.13% (2,886,635) - Mijikenda+pokomo
Southern Nilotic: 13.51% (6,358,113) - Kalenjin
Western Nilotic: 10.77% (5,066,966)
Eastern Nilotic: 6.28% (2,956,837) - Matusa+iteso
Cushitic: 7.16% (3,370,756)
Others small tribes (3%)

So far

Gachagua+Kalonzo have huge play in Eastern Europe - Gachagua is impeached - Kalonzo ought to lead but ?
Ruto and Raila share the rest of the spoils - Ruto as incumbent has advantage.
Matiangi shows promise in GUsii backyard - but because someone lied to them he will be pork. PORK with 5% of vote?

Exactly. 

The GenZ - under 30 - are the most unemployed, still in college, no payslips, and thus do not pay any taxes directly.  Why would they protest so massively about taxes yet they hit them the least - as compared to the working classes?

World over, the young protest physically embodying the mood of the wider population - the grievances of their parents/older siblings who are silently protesting.

So while it is unlikely, improbable, that their will be a candidate in their age group, the GenZ vote will resonate across the demographics and become a swing vote.

If their voice didn't matter, why is the gov't is keen on regulating social media, using cybercrime laws to arrest, and killing the young to suppress their voice?

They set the agenda

[RV Pundit]

Its more how to know you're being a.hole when someone like me with impeachable record predicting elections and referendum tells you dont get it.

Robina nowadays get it.

Wewe sasa ni ufala ya Gen Zs hadi 2027 - then kulia next wameiba wameiba.

We just have to tolerate listen to kids theories for next 2.5yrs.

The BEST PEOPLE TO WATCH in KENYA IS POLITICAL KINGS in BIG 5 - the next is watch political Chiefs of the small tribes.

They are the ones who move ground - Weta moves Bungoma & Tranozia - you watch him.

Pokomo leader like Mungata moves Pokomos - even if they are 50,000. Joho has say in Mombasa. Someone else has say Durumas. Digos. Giriamas (Kingi), Maasai (Ledama and other clans leaders)

You need to watch those people - and know who moves what - if its clans - you need to know - for example in Somalis - Duale cannot move someone in Wajir - someone in Mandera has their own CLAN leaders and chiefs - if they split - votes splits.

Most importantly nobody watches the ground like political class - its their life - watch them - they are fewer than trying to watch millions of kenya - you will see them abandon Ruto in areas Ruto is unpopular - like is slowly happening in parts of Kikuyu-Embu.

How to know you are on the right path - when they respond with insults. 

[Tactician]

Impeachable record I agree.  Impeccable record, naa. 

Banter aside, once insults check-in, I know what I am dealing with. 

Lemme leave the forum to the moderator to police himself.

Just like Deputy IG Lagat was at the press conference yesterday - listening to how Ojwang was arrested cos Lagat complained. Justice at its finest. 

Its more how to know you're being a.hole when someone like me with impeachable record predicting elections and referendum tells you dont get it.

Robina nowadays get it.

Wewe sasa ni ufala ya Gen Zs hadi 2027 - then kulia next wameiba wameiba.

We just have to tolerate listen to kids theories for next 2.5yrs.

The BEST PEOPLE TO WATCH in KENYA IS POLITICAL KINGS in BIG 5 - the next is watch political Chiefs of the small tribes.

They are the ones who move ground - Weta moves Bungoma & Tranozia - you watch him.

Pokomo leader like Mungata moves Pokomos - even if they are 50,000.

Most importantly nobody watches the ground like political class - its their life - watch them - you will see them abandon Ruto in areas Ruto is unpopular - like is slowly happening in parts of Kikuyu-Embu.

How to know you are on the right path - when they respond with insults. 

[RV Pundit]

Ni Kenya siasa tu haulewi; But you have many of your type here; you definitely will find them here; wakina fair and balanced, patel & the rest.

Impeachable record I agree.  Impeccable record, naa. 

Banter aside, once insults check-in, I know what I am dealing with. 

Lemme leave the forum to the moderator to police himself.

Just like Deputy IG Lagat was at the press conference yesterday - listening to how Ojwang was arrested cos Lagat complained. Justice at its finest. 

Its more how to know you're being a.hole when someone like me with impeachable record predicting elections and referendum tells you dont get it.

Robina nowadays get it.

Wewe sasa ni ufala ya Gen Zs hadi 2027 - then kulia next wameiba wameiba.

We just have to tolerate listen to kids theories for next 2.5yrs.

The BEST PEOPLE TO WATCH in KENYA IS POLITICAL KINGS in BIG 5 - the next is watch political Chiefs of the small tribes.

They are the ones who move ground - Weta moves Bungoma & Tranozia - you watch him.

Pokomo leader like Mungata moves Pokomos - even if they are 50,000.

Most importantly nobody watches the ground like political class - its their life - watch them - you will see them abandon Ruto in areas Ruto is unpopular - like is slowly happening in parts of Kikuyu-Embu.

How to know you are on the right path - when they respond with insults. 

[Nefertiti]

Tactician is too soft kulia lia kila saa. This is a debating forum. Tactician actually means short-sighted.
Toughen up man.


Gen Z are neither new nor special. They are as old as mankind - there has always been young people since creation.

What is unqiue: they are gullible and fickle. They are also restless and vocal.

They were the Hustler Nation core 3 years ago.
Before that they sang Tibim and Tialala.
2013 they were seduced with Digital vs Analog.
2007 Vijana na Kibaki.

RiggyG has coined "One Term" to excite them.

There is no "new" or untainted candidate who can bag such a vast, divese group - 30% of the country. They will be split across the parties just as women and older men.

[RV Pundit]

Tactician is too soft kulia lia kila saa. This is a debating forum. Tactician actually means short-sighted.
Toughen up man.


Gen Z are neither new nor special. They are as old as mankind - there has always been young people since creation.

What is unqiue: they are gullible and fickle. They are also restless and vocal.

They were the Hustler Nation core 3 years ago.
Before that they sang Tibim and Tialala.
2013 they were seduced with Digital vs Analog.
2007 Vijana na Kibaki.

RiggyG has coined "One Term" to excite them.

There is no "new" or untainted candidate who can bag such a vast, divese group - 30% of the country. They will be split across the parties just as women and older men.

Kila mtu will go back to their tribes...a few will remain ideological with maraga. You can't be gen z who is on high pedestal supporting RiggyG or Mataingi n opposing Ruto. Hiyo ni bhangi. Matiangi killed more. Gachagua was happy to lead operations against Azimio