The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.

[Nowayhaha]

Ruto will get 90% in Muranga at worst 85 %  that is if Raila runs. The only concern would be voters turn out .

Last time when I said the ground hasn’t changed and asked those trying to change it to do it kwa mashinani, stones came at me like I was a chicken thief. I did another poll last week, 2 people at each 584 polling stations. Raw data available at a fee. Am still a fence seater. pic.twitter.com/VEd8IFuvqT

— Irungu Nyakera, CBS (@wnyakera) October 28, 2021

[RV Pundit]

Wa-Iria is doing good - after his agricultural transformation of Muranga. Raila with Uhuru very strong support - will max out 20 percent.

Ruto will get 90% in Muranga at worst 85 %  that is if Raila runs. The only concern would be voters turn out .

[Nowayhaha]

Wa- Iria doesnt have financial capability to mount a presidential quest . If he were to Run even Raila will beat him just like PK lost to Raila in Gatanga .
Uhuru is not a Muranga resident . Muranga are very passionate people . Their hate for Raila is the highest amongst former Central Province.

Wa-Iria is doing good - after his agricultural transformation of Muranga. Raila with Uhuru very strong support - will max out 20 percent.

Ruto will get 90% in Muranga at worst 85 %  that is if Raila runs. The only concern would be voters turn out .

[RV Pundit]

What if Raila make PK DPORK. Anyway the only move they can make is to convince James Mwangi to run for PORK; hapo RUto will sweat it out...especially in Muranga...James Mwangi is a legend.

Wa- Iria doesnt have financial capability to mount a presidential quest . If he were to Run even Raila will beat him just like PK lost to Raila in Gatanga .
Uhuru is not a Muranga resident . Muranga are very passionate people . Their hate for Raila is the highest amongst former Central Province.

[Nowayhaha]

Here is Muranga for you  Today . PK was a creation of the media in 2017 he would have defeated badly by Iria. As for Mwangi ask SK Macharia what happened to him in 1997 when he ran in KANUs Party against Murathe SDP.

Prof @makaumutua this is a MOVEMENT. EXTRAORDINARY!!! @DonaldBKipkorir pic.twitter.com/JDwakAu6am

— Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC (@ahmednasirlaw) October 29, 2021

What if Raila make PK DPORK. Anyway the only move they can make is to convince James Mwangi to run for PORK; hapo RUto will sweat it out...especially in Muranga...James Mwangi is a legend.

Wa- Iria doesnt have financial capability to mount a presidential quest . If he were to Run even Raila will beat him just like PK lost to Raila in Gatanga .
Uhuru is not a Muranga resident . Muranga are very passionate people . Their hate for Raila is the highest amongst former Central Province.

[RV Pundit]

Pk of gatanga was great...he would have won 2013 governor

[Nowayhaha]

Nairobi Governor Perhaps.....In Muranga 2017  wa Iria had set up game chafu ...Jamleck  even went to Uhuru and cried tears .......

Pk of gatanga was great...he would have won 2013 governor

[RV Pundit]

Nov 8th 2021 Update....

Total registered votes increase by 1421710   from 19607094   to 21028804 - with end of mass registration.

Based on this low enthusiam - I see voter turnout reducing from 85 % in 2017 to 75% - with most depressed turnout in GEMA (expected down of 15 percent) - but Luo and Kalenjin counties will likely retain the same 2017 as they have realistic prospect at power for 2022  - the rest of counties will see turnout 10 percent less.

The handshake killed competitive politics - and most kenya do not understand why they should vote - the turnout may even be 65 percent.

How does Ruto numbers look like today

Total Cast   16136040   77 percent turnout   

WSR 50 of GEMA- Total 7546667   (47 percent)   

WSR 60 of GEMA Total 8021729   (50 percent)    -- Due to Low GEMA voter registration and expected lower turnout (predicting 15 percent less than 2017) - Ruto can nick with even slightly half of GEMA votes. GEMA votes are increasingly looking less crucial...

WSR 70 of GEMA Total 8496790   (53 percent)
WSR 80 of GEMA Total 8834741   (55 percent)   


RV Pundit Final Prediction if election are held today.

Ruto Predicted to get total 8480062 (53%) - with about 70 percent of GEMA.

I see Ruto improving everywhere Uhuru did except in Gusii and GEMA. No candidate has been this good this early without even forming a coalition.

Of course definite MOASS will start to make sense once we know the final candidates - for now Kalonzo, MaDVD, Uhuru and Weta can still make it close call - but Ruto is winning comfortably at 70 percent of GEMA - and even 60 percent is possible - if he works to get 30 percent of Ukambanai+Western - definitely he is made strong headways in Matusa+Coast.


So far MOAS has only one candidate....Raila candidature will only make sense if he first sign up Kalonzo and Kambas to get him back to 40s. For now he is struggling in 30s. Once he get Kalonzo - he still need get maDVD to get 45 percent - and he can beg for 5 percent from GEMA.

[RV Pundit]

Radio Africa poll

Raila 45.5%+
Ruto 28.5%+
Kalonzo 2.5%+
MaDVD 1.9%+
Gideon 0.9%
Others 20%  including undecided.

There is still lots of noise from all jokers....but Ruto is doing great. Without undecided he cross 50 percent


https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-11-19-raila-narrows-gap-with-ruto-new-poll/

[RV Pundit]

Maiden inclusion of Raila and Oka into MOASS 2022.

Ruto - 52 percent
Raila - 34 percent
OKA and others - 14 percent.  I think in opinion polls most of undecided voters are OKA supporters. In MOAS they have 2.2m votes expected to be cast in their favour...a few in vihiga, bungoma, kakamega, machakos, makueni, kitui, baringo, MSA and Nairobi.

As for now - the focus is on GEMA and OKA.

Ruto I have placed at btw 60 (Meru)-80 (Embu) - in some counties in GEMA - average of 70 (kikuyus) - Raila is at 22 percent. All that 22 percent are Uhuru floating votes...Raila could lose all if Uhuru goes mute or worse make peace with Ruto. I still very much expect either to happen...especially after passage of budget in February and resignation of civil servants to enter politics.

Raila should focus on OKA - in fact he should join OKA. Without OKA he is dead as dodo.

Ruto is at 52 percent -  but going against state machinery - so far he bulldoze his way with sheer billions - but provincial administration if unleashed could do some damage - so he needs to win at least one Oka principle - so he can comfortably close the deal.

[RV Pundit]

[RV Pundit]

With mass registration out - btw now and May 30th - there are two important events to watch that could significantly alter the game

1) GEMA - Uhuru/Ruto play. This will probably go on until the last day of election if Uhuru is indeed committed to Raila presidency. I am still very doubtful. Uhuru has lost the lower rank from MP, MCAs down - but he still has governors - except for Wa-Iria, Waiguru and possibly Nyeri Governor. Kiraitu & Munya are pretty influential in Meru. Lee is as useless as Nyoro in Kiambu. Kimemia-Kimunya (gone mute) could make good partnership in Nyandarua.

GEMA factor will continue till election date

2) OKA - seem they have issues of compromise - Kalonzo and maDVD both cannot deputize the other - it's a matter of time before they split. MaDVD+Weta on one side - Kalonzo+Uhuru lackeys (Gideon+useless Jirongo).

Post spilt - it's likely Kalonzo will follow Uhuru - it also increasingly clear that Weta+possibly maDVD already have a deal with Ruto

The OKA are weaken - in their stronghold - both Ruto and Raila look set to get some votes. They are at about 13 percent of the national vote. They look set to roughly split into half.

[RV Pundit]

Dec Update.
I downgraded Ruto in Gusii from 35 percent to 25 percent - as Matiangi double down and Ruto lost Maangi - doesnt look good for him there; I also reduced Kilifi as Kingi set to back ODM.
 also little conservative numbers in OKA areas - especially if they decide to run hard  in attempt to force a run-off

In terms of GEMA - I am still giving Uhuru/state factor some huge factor  - I think Ruto will do well in Tharaka and Embu at 75 percent - elsewhere I have him at 70 percent - with Raila generously at 30 percent. Kiambu I see Ruto at 65 percent.

Ruto drops to 49 percent; Raila rises to 39 percent; and OKA 12 percent.

Key things to watch remain Mt Kenya and OKA (Ukambani+Western - Kalonzo is playing around 65-70 percent in Ukambani - he is very weak - and maDVD is even weaker playing at 40-50 percent of Kakamega/Vihiga (70) - losing to Raila in Busia - and Weta has about 40 percent of Bungoma.


Percentage   Total votes
49   8,122,808
39   6,425,398
12   1,981,576
100   16,529,782
79   

79   

[RV Pundit]

My twitter account

1/4MOASS 2022: DEC 12th Update. With Raila formally joining the race - and to reflect new changes in the political area - we have small update. Ruto has dropped from 52 percent to 49 percent. Raila improves from 35 percent to 39 percent. OKA are at 12 percent. pic.twitter.com/UbXxXoT2I4

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 12, 2021

[RV Pundit]

MOAS endorse Mizani Nyanza Regional Poll

MOAS 2022 Update. Quick analysis of the #NyanzaRegionPolls by Mizani.

Mirrors my thinking.  Nyanza is roughly 60% Luo+Suba and 40% (Gusii+Kuria).

Raill will carry Luo+Suba & likely 70% of Gusii.

Ruto will likely underperform Uhuru 2022 due Matiangi & PEV. pic.twitter.com/B9qxeDjlC1

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 17, 2021

[RV Pundit]

1/2 MOASS 2021 XMas Update. Few politically significant event recently necessitate an update. By-election in Taita Taveta & Meru. Raila Azimio with Skipping by OKOA except Gideon..lots of reading It also appears OKA is splitting into 2 camps..Kalonzo-Gideon versus MaDVD +Weta.

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 23, 2021

[RV Pundit]

From Nov when Ruto had 52% to Raila 38% - to last update when Ruto dropped <50% - this time I see even lower figures 60% part of GEMA (outside RV+Embu+Tharaka)-overal Ruto drops to 48%, Raila 40% and I have split Oka to 8% for KM+GM & MM+WW 6%...Conclusion OKA now hold the aces pic.twitter.com/IuXwsKuSeh

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 23, 2021

[RV Pundit]

Data attached.

[Nowayhaha]

With exception of Kiambu, Ruto will score more than 80% in all other Mt Kenya Counties if Raila will be on the ballot.

From Nov when Ruto had 52% to Raila 38% - to last update when Ruto dropped <50% - this time I see even lower figures 60% part of GEMA (outside RV+Embu+Tharaka)-overal Ruto drops to 48%, Raila 40% and I have split Oka to 8% for KM+GM & MM+WW 6%...Conclusion OKA now hold the aces pic.twitter.com/IuXwsKuSeh

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 23, 2021

[RV Pundit]

With exception of Kiambu, Ruto will score more than 80% in all other Mt Kenya Counties if Raila will be on the ballot.

From Nov when Ruto had 52% to Raila 38% - to last update when Ruto dropped <50% - this time I see even lower figures 60% part of GEMA (outside RV+Embu+Tharaka)-overal Ruto drops to 48%, Raila 40% and I have split Oka to 8% for KM+GM & MM+WW 6%...Conclusion OKA now hold the aces pic.twitter.com/IuXwsKuSeh

— Pundit (@rvpundit) December 23, 2021

it's possible but I would work on the assumption that Kenyatta will unleash money and propaganda...so figure of 60 percent with Raila at 40 percent is realistic.Good thing Ruto is still strong at 48 percent.He needs to nail madvd plus weta to get 6 percent.... rigging or mnkey games margins important.Raila need entire oka plus unuru...and it goes to the wire