Rough MOASS - October 2021.
I have added Raila (his candidature firming up) - and lumped all the OKA (I still doubt they will all run - I see them collapsing by mid-march except maybe maDVD who can be stubborn and seem to pretend to campaign - weta and kalonzo are broke - Gideon hate wasting money - so wont run just for it's sake).
GEMA - Ruto I believe has about 75 percent of GEMA; I generously given Raila 20 percent
I believe OKA - combined will score 17 percent - mostly from Vihiga, Kitui, Makueni, Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Nairobi, Mombasa, Baringo - were mostly kambas, maragoli, bukusu and few tugen-pokots.
The results as of now
Ruto still win round 1 - with 51 percent.
Raila follows with 33 percent - Note increasing GEMA votes by 5 percent to 25 - gives him 1 percent increase to 34 percent.
Oka - 17 percent.
Ruto looks to nick this in first round - without even talking to any of the OKA principles - and this early.
They are still few Key Variables/Events to watch for.
1) Voter Registration - will affect the numbers - and possibly gives us clues of the expected turnout (voter enthusiasm)
2) More realignment - Coast/Northern Kenya is very unstable now - GEMA is going through a storm - I still believe many governors are still fearful of CID - while others in gov - are busy eating money until Feb 10th when they have to resign.
3) (OKA) Coalition agreement - This will be left to May- to the deadline- so the stakes are high and the money the likes of Weta and Kalonzo will ask will be a billion plus.
4) Uhuru byzantine moves - is he really for Raila? Will he come out gun blazing or will he stay on the background.
