With a exactly six month to go - I will be doing a big update on MOAS.
1) Adding one million newly registered votes.
2) Refining the turn out figures to reflect low enthusiasm
3) OKA - tentatively tagging it with Azimio - with Kalonzo & team expected to carry 75 percent of Ukambani - down from 80 percent in 2017 - and almost 90 percent in 2013 - Kalonzo will at best hammorrage 10 percent more - though this time round opinion polls suggest folks are tired of kitendawili - so if he takes a bad deal - Ruto can even get 35-40 percent of Ukambani - especially if they elevate Muthama to a principal.
4) Changes expected - downgrading Ruto in NEP, Isiolo, Marsabit & part of Coast, upgrading Ruto in Western and minor changes everywhere.
5) Uhuru has began to directly support Raila but it's too early to determine the direction - generally maintaining him at 35 percent of Central Kenya votes (5 counties+Meru) and 20 percent elsewhere (diaspora of nakuru, laikipia, embu & tharaka).
6) Gachagua is almost guaranteed to be picked as DPORK - I see Nyeri becoming another Ruto stronghold.Nyeri already felt some coldness towards Uhuru the drunkard for dropping the ball in kibaki economic turn around story. Uhuru will soon be restricted to Kiambu-muranga-and huge maybe kirinyanga (if martha plays).
7) Who will Raila pick as DPORK? Kalonzo? Karua? or PK?
Moses Kuria arrival on 18th Feb could deal a lethal blow to Uhuru if he has signed to Ruto - combination of Gachagua-Kuria-Alice-plus ever angry Kikuyu diaspora will send Uhuru back to statehouse faster than he came. I doubt Ruto could fly for two days to Dubai just for it's sake. He must have gone there to nail a deal.
