Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on July 13, 2017, 11:25:02 AM
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THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE - MOAS PREDICTS UHURU WIN OF 53% AGAINST NASA 46%
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The GOVERNOR RACE
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National Assembly race - including women reps. Jubilee to retain 55% majority in parliament with independent candidates making nearly 7% of the next parliament.
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The senator race - 2017
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As usual the dynamics weakness makes you miss Meru, Turkana, Kwale, probably Uasin Gishu.
In Uasin Gishu, have Kikuyu leaders not realigned towards the warmongering Mandago after Ruto intervention?
The GOVERNOR RACE
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1) I don't think so - Uasin gishu - kikuyus are third after Luhyas - then you have lots of Gusii & Luos - Mandago may succeed in intimidating kikuyus but he has mountain to climb - against non-nandis (who make upto 60-70% of Uasin Gishu). Mandago won by small margin in nomination...and yet luhya-luo-gusii didn't parcipate. You cannot rule Uasin Gishu like it's nandi county and worse campaign on nandi nationalism - in area where nandis are about 35%.
2) Meru - Imentis will steamroll Munya - Munya won by very small margin against Kilemi Mwiria (who is more popular in Tigania than Munya and is running). Munya got in thro Kiraitu - backing -imentis. Munya is only strong in Igeembe north and maybe part of Tigania.
3) Kwale - Duruma & Mwashetani Lunga Lunga people will sway it for Mvurya - with Digo & Kambas dividing their vote btw Chirau & Chipera.
4)Turkana - Munyes is shoe-in - Gov has concentrated on ODM/Raila/Nairobi and basically abandoned his people. Munyes has backing of all mps bar one and Senate Speaker.
As usual the dynamics weakness makes you miss Meru, Turkana, Kwale, probably Uasin Gishu.
In Uasin Gishu, have Kikuyu leaders not realigned towards the warmongering Mandago after Ruto intervention?
The GOVERNOR RACE
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Omollo and Kichwa have a "feeling" that people want change so NASA will win.
Can Omollo or any NASA die hard also come up with his MOAS for ease of comparison :D :D :D :D
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Meru nationalism will trump clanism that's the dynamic.
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So Kiraitu is not a meru...or you mean Munya is competing against WSR for governorship. Sub-tribe will tramp all that - and of course Jubilee party - that Kiraitu is running on - will be added advantage.The main gripe that merus have against Jubilee is simple - coming from Kibaki regime where they were powerful - it's been hard adjusting to new reality that has seen new emergence of power base around UhuRuto from Kibaki era. However that Meru power-base was concentrated in Kiriatu's Imentis and so Kiriatu will handle that.
Meru nationalism will trump clanism that's the dynamic.
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There is really no need to argue with Pundits MOAS because its based on the paradigm that Kenyans vote tribally and nothing else matters. We have had this argument before and we have agreed to disagree. The only problem with Pundit is that he is all over the place. When it is in favor of Ouru he seems to argue that other factors matter but when the other factors are in favor of NASA, he believes it does not change anything. Nane Nane will amua.
Omollo and Kichwa have a "feeling" that people want change so NASA will win.
Can Omollo or any NASA die hard also come up with his MOAS for ease of comparison :D :D :D :D
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This is is quite thorough and the most intelligent guesstimate I've come across so far,and I think it will be negligibly off if not on point. Nobody wants to be told they are losing so I expect it to be dismissed with utter contempt.
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It all depends on the premise. If you believe like Pundit that: 1) ICC was never a factor 2) no change in tribal voting patterns over the last five years 3) the 2013 election numbers were never interfered with 4) Ourutu governed brilliantly and Kenyans are better off than they were 5 years ago, bla, blaa and blaaa, then the MOAS is correct. However, if you believe that any of those other factors have changed and will have an effect on the voting patterns as we in NASA do, then you have to believe that NASA is running strong and will prevail on nane-nane if the elections are free and fair. Its that simple.
This is is quite thorough and the most intelligent guesstimate I've come across so far,and I think it will be negligibly off if not on point. Nobody wants to be told they are losing so I expect it to be dismissed with utter contempt.
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They will give Munya a pass so he can represent them nationally in 2022... unlike Kiraitu who wants to subjugate them to Uhuruto. Kiraitu's running up and down desperately due to this real possibility. Kilemi Mwiria the spoiler doesn't even feature past single digit in opinion polls.
So Kiraitu is not a meru...or you mean Munya is competing against WSR for governorship. Sub-tribe will tramp all that - and of course Jubilee party - that Kiraitu is running on - will be added advantage.The main gripe that merus have against Jubilee is simple - coming from Kibaki regime where they were powerful - it's been hard adjusting to new reality that has seen new emergence of power base around UhuRuto from Kibaki era. However that Meru power-base was concentrated in Kiriatu's Imentis and so Kiriatu will handle that.
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Robina...even the most ambitious meru knows pork is too high for munya..if he was smart he'd be angling for Dpork like Tharaka senator..although that seat belong to a Gikuyu.Kiraitu is a meru King he went in unopposed in jubilee.. No way to beat an imenti who with Muthaura delivered.I am uncertain in other areas but meru is shoe in.
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They know PORK is a bargaining chip they are not stupid. Even Ruto ran for PORK first before becoming Uhuru runningmate. While Kindiki of Tharaka Nithi (where "king" kiraitu has zero say) is a clear Ruto poodle. Munya's mettle and valor has endeared him to Meru who see him as savior from Kikuyu dominance... and that's why he's giving Kiraitu a run for his money despite the latter's huge advantages - biggest clan, development track record, Jubilee, etc.
Robina...even the most ambitious meru knows pork is too high for munya..if he was smart he'd be angling for Dpork like Tharaka senator..although that seat belong to a Gikuyu.Kiraitu is a meru King he went in unopposed in jubilee.. No way to beat an imenti who with Muthaura delivered.I am uncertain in other areas but meru is shoe in.
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Merus know once PNU dominates Meru... then Jubilee/Ruto must suck up to them. Yet there is nothing to be gained by having a Jubilee governor. This is the same "Mbus" argument that carried the day in 2013.
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mbus was Kiraitu. Munya is a fly.EE end this n resume in 8.8 where as often you'll lode
Merus know once PNU dominates Meru... then Jubilee/Ruto must suck up to them. Yet there is nothing to be gained by having a Jubilee governor. This is the same "Mbus" argument that carried the day in 2013.
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It all depends on the premise. If you believe like Pundit that: 1) ICC was never a factor 2) no change in tribal voting patterns over the last five years 3) the 2013 election numbers were never interfered with 4) Ourutu governed brilliantly and Kenyans are better off than they were 5 years ago, bla, blaa and blaaa, then the MOAS is correct. However, if you believe that any of those other factors have changed and will have an effect on the voting patterns as we in NASA do, then you have to believe that NASA is running strong and will prevail on nane-nane if the elections are free and fair. Its that simple.
This is is quite thorough and the most intelligent guesstimate I've come across so far,and I think it will be negligibly off if not on point. Nobody wants to be told they are losing so I expect it to be dismissed with utter contempt.
1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.
2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.
3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.
4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes
The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.
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The Pundit MOAS will work under the following conditions:
1. The expensive Voter Identifications system breaks down and IEBC allows "manual voting (as passed by the Jubilee MPs)
2. The Result transmission system at Bomas fails and the TVs are again invited there selectively to receive the "results" which are read out by IEBC commissioners
3. The entire exercise takes three to seven days - so that there is no room to injuct the issuance of a certificate to Uhuru
4. Violence engineered by Jubilee breaks out all over the country
This scenario is well known to NASA and it will not happen.
Pundits MOAS having set 53% for Uhuru goes out to add and subtract until that figure is arrived at. It is nothing more than witchcraft being devoid of science.
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Pundit's cross... guesswork presented as science :D
The Pundit MOAS will work under the following conditions:
1. The expensive Voter Identifications system breaks down and IEBC allows "manual voting (as passed by the Jubilee MPs)
2. The Result transmission system at Bomas fails and the TVs are again invited there selectively to receive the "results" which are read out by IEBC commissioners
3. The entire exercise takes three to seven days - so that there is no room to injuct the issuance of a certificate to Uhuru
4. Violence engineered by Jubilee breaks out all over the country
This scenario is well known to NASA and it will not happen.
Pundits MOAS having set 53% for Uhuru goes out to add and subtract until that figure is arrived at. It is nothing more than witchcraft being devoid of science.
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Why not wait for mere 3 weeks and don't come crying rigged
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Reminds me of a time Atwoli hired some people to conduct "research" to identify the Luhya spokesman. The results, which were a "secret" were locked up in a bank vault and presented on the day at Bukhungu. Noone had seen the results beforehand, not even Atwoli himself, as evidenced by the sealed and chain-wrapped briefcase. The secret results were revealed in front of cameras and the public... although all Luhya leaders had been invited only Madvd showed up... Weta, Ababu, Lusaka, Jirongo, Khalwale were a no-show. Miraculously, Madvd and the host Oparanya had been identified as the most popular leaders through this scientific research...
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Reminds me of a time Atwoli hired some people to conduct "research" to identify the Luhya spokesman. The results, which were a "secret" were locked up in a bank vault and presented on the day at Bukhungu. Noone had seen the results beforehand, not even Atwoli himself, as evidenced by the sealed and chain-wrapped briefcase. The secret results were revealed in front of cameras and the public... although all Luhya leaders had been invited only Madvd showed up... Weta, Ababu, Lusaka, Jirongo, Khalwale were a no-show. Miraculously, Madvd and the host Oparanya had been identified as the most popular leaders through this scientific research...
I am every ready to explain why I assign figure x or y but won't change this because it's free final
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Red: So, ouruto needed an issue namely- "ICC" -to bring the tribes together? Now, if ICC brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together, do you think another issue can bring them apart?. If an issue(s) can bring tribes apart/together then tell me, what is King?, is it the "tribe" or the Issue?. It appears to me that issues create tribal alliances/rivalry/enmity and not the other way round. This means that MOAS should be based on issues and not tribes. However, since the issues change and are more difficult to nail down, we fall for the easy explanation-TRIBE, because its is the low laying fruit explanation of all that ails Kenya- a constant and easy to blame/give credit to and manipulate. I call it intellectual laziness.
1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.
2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.
3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.
4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes
The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.
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Red: So oruto needed and issue "ICC" to bring the tribes together? And NASA needed an issue (s) " we are left out/DP/unga/corruption/ etc." to bring the NASA tribes together. So ICC brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together, do you think another issue can bring them apart?. Now tell me, what is King, is it the "tribe" or the Issue?
1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.
2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.
3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.
4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes
The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.
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Tribe and issue are not mutually exclusive; they complement. Look at the Somalis. The issue is marginalization which drove them to hostility against governments. The solution is including many of their leaders into government. Is this clear?
GEMA have remained a bloc for years. PEV since 1992 and especially 2007 drove a wedge between them and Kales. ICC brought them together; their best were being crucified for or in their behalf. ICC was among the ISSUES that brought the TRIBES together.
If you don't get it then ponder this;tribes have issues real or imagined, urgent or historical. You warm to tribes using issues. Whether you resolve the issues is another matter.
Incumbency is a real issue. Kales voted Moi to man due to this issue. In 2007, Okoyus voted Kibaki due to the same Incumbency issue. In 2013, RVGEMA voted the suspects because they were convinced they were best placed to deal with their issues....and nauseum
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The one thing that can make tribes come together or fall apart is issues. Kikuyus and Luos were bossom buddies during the fight for independence then the Jaramogi/Kenyatta ideological differences set them apart. Kikuyus and Luos then came together again to fight Moi but then separated during the Matiba/jaramogi fallout. Then 2002 we saw them come back together again because of "kibaki tosha, and Kanu fatigue", then another fallout. What makes you think the Kalenjin/ Kikuyu alliance is unique and will last for ever. Any issue can split Kalenjin and Kikuyus anytime and make them bitter enemies just as easily as Ruto's support for Ouru made them buddies after Kalenjins slaughtered kikuyus like chicken during the 2008 PEV. Do not kid yourself ma brada-mamabo yabadilika. If Ruto or Ouru drops dead today, the MOAS goes through the window-that's how unreliable and issue dependent it is. MOAS is not based on tribe but it is based on the issues uniting the tribes remaining constant, if the issues change then MOAS changes.
Red: So oruto needed and issue "ICC" to bring the tribes together? And NASA needed an issue (s) " we are left out/DP/unga/corruption/ etc." to bring the NASA tribes together. So ICC brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together, do you think another issue can bring them apart?. Now tell me, what is King, is it the "tribe" or the Issue?
1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.
2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.
3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.
4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes
The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.
Tribe and issue are not mutually exclusive; they complement. Look at the Somalis. The issue is marginalization which drove them to hostility against governments. The solution is including many of their leaders into government. Is this clear?
GEMA have remained a bloc for years. PEV since 1992 and especially 2007 drove a wedge between them and Kales. ICC brought them together; their best were being crucified for or in their behalf. ICC was among the ISSUES that brought the TRIBES together.
If you don't get it then ponder this;tribes have issues real or imagined, urgent or historical. You warm to tribes using issues. Whether you resolve the issues is another matter.
Incumbency is a real issue. Kales voted Moi to man due to this issue. In 2007, Okoyus voted Kibaki due to the same Incumbency issue. In 2013, RVGEMA voted the suspects because they were convinced they were best placed to deal with their issues....and nauseum
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The one thing that can make tribes come together or fall apart is issues. Kikuyus and Luos were bossom buddies during the fight for independence then the Jaramogi/Kenyatta ideological differences set them apart. Kikuyus and Luos then came together again to fight Moi but then separated during the Matiba/jaramogi fallout. Then 2002 we saw them come back together again because of "kibaki tosha, and Kanu fatigue", then another fallout. What makes you think the Kalenjin/ Kikuyu alliance is unique and will last for ever. Any issue can split Kalenjin and Kikuyus anytime and make them bitter enemies just as easily as Ruto's support for Ouru made them buddies after Kalenjins slaughtered kikuyus like chicken during the 2008 PEV. Do not kid yourself ma brada-mamabo yabadilika. If Ruto or Ouru drops dead today, the MOAS goes through the window-that's how unreliable and issue dependent it is. MOAS is not based on tribe but it is based on the issues uniting the tribes remaining constant, if the issues change then MOAS changes.
Red: So oruto needed and issue "ICC" to bring the tribes together? And NASA needed an issue (s) " we are left out/DP/unga/corruption/ etc." to bring the NASA tribes together. So ICC brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together, do you think another issue can bring them apart?. Now tell me, what is King, is it the "tribe" or the Issue?
1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.
2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.
3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.
4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes
The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.
Tribe and issue are not mutually exclusive; they complement. Look at the Somalis. The issue is marginalization which drove them to hostility against governments. The solution is including many of their leaders into government. Is this clear?
GEMA have remained a bloc for years. PEV since 1992 and especially 2007 drove a wedge between them and Kales. ICC brought them together; their best were being crucified for or in their behalf. ICC was among the ISSUES that brought the TRIBES together.
If you don't get it then ponder this;tribes have issues real or imagined, urgent or historical. You warm to tribes using issues. Whether you resolve the issues is another matter.
Incumbency is a real issue. Kales voted Moi to man due to this issue. In 2007, Okoyus voted Kibaki due to the same Incumbency issue. In 2013, RVGEMA voted the suspects because they were convinced they were best placed to deal with their issues....and nauseum
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I'm not saying the RVGEMA juggernaut is eternal, just that it is intact for now.
As I said, MOAS is a clever or intelligent guesstimate. Just watched Baba saying they have done polling and have 'facts' proving they are winning bla de bla. Point is you can wait till after nane nane to know the winner or you can employ reason and make a prediction.
As you rightly said, so many things can change between now and nane nane that leaves MOAS unreliable, but MOAS is predicated on ceteris paribus, meaning as it is, Uhuruto are headed for a hard fought victory. I will quote Baba and say that nothing short of a miracle can see them lose this thing
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In summary all Pundit is saying is that things have not changed significantly enough to change the 2013 voting patterns. He makes it sound sophisticated by making and coloring what looks like a mathematical table with numbers based on the last voting patterns. If you want to sound like you know what you are doing, just throw around some numbers. He then he evokes the Solomonic mantra of Kenyan politics" all voting is tribal". It means absolutely nothing when you think about it. It reminds me of the sports commentator who was asked which team will win and he posed, and with the tone and mannerisms of a sage "predicted" "the team that scores the most goals will win tonight". I would respect Pundits opinion if he just said without MOAS, that he believes strongly that the issues that brought kalenjins and Kikuyus to vote together in 2013 are still intact and will deliver them victory. I may disagree but I will respect that as a valid opinion. Trying to make an obvious political opinion to be a scientific fact is the height of arrogance.
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You're misrepresenting issues - for each row - I have analyzed carefully the factors that will sway votes - assign them weights - and given the final percentage. That is why I have given Raila whopping 14% of Bomet - about 40,000 votes from 10,000 votes he got in 2013. I have for instance increased Uhuru votes in Bungoma - because I think NFK wing of AMANI have moved to Uhuru while ANC part moved to Raila. If you go to NEP - I have given Jubilee big win in Mandera and small win in Garissa - but given NASA a win in Wajir - this because of the clan factor in somali politics & how the clan leadership has aligned - Mandera is still Jubilee because the leading mandera leadership is split btw Jubilee & Jubilee supporting Frontier Party - in Garissa - the alliance of Duale's clan Abudwak (the majority) -of garisa, balambla, fafi & samawadhal(Yusu Haji) -ijara - mean Jubilee will carry leaving Maalim/Nathif clan of Lagdera/Daadab on it's trail. In wajir - the degodia are the majority - the governor comes from there and has been endorsed by the clan - so I think NASA will win there and Ahmed will retain his seat.
We can go on and on - but for every percentage I have assigned - I have researched and carefully thought about the issues, the actors and factors.
Kenya tribal or ethnic politics is easy to read -you just watch the leaders - if Raila moves - Luos everywhere move with him - whatever the issue - if Ruto moves - like he did with NO campaign - people will sheeply move with him - after you've knocked down the major players - then you go to regional or small time tribal kings for small tribes - and you just need to know who has influence here or there -- and you can make a prediction - --- that is pretty much rough moas - then you refine it by looking at other issues or small time players who can dent votes here or there .
In summary all Pundit is saying is that things have not changed significantly enough to change the 2013 voting patterns. He makes it sound sophisticated by making and coloring what looks like a mathematical table with numbers based on the last voting patterns. If you want to sound like you know what you are doing, just throw around some numbers. He then he evokes the Solomonic mantra of Kenyan politics" all voting is tribal". It means absolutely nothing when you think about it. It reminds me of the sports commentator who was asked which team will win and he posed, and with the tone and mannerisms of a sage "predicted" "the team that scores the most goals will win tonight". I would respect Pundits opinion if he just said without MOAS, that he believes strongly that the issues that brought kalenjins and Kikuyus to vote together in 2013 are still intact and will deliver them victory. I may disagree but I will respect that as a valid opinion. Trying to make an obvious political opinion to be a scientific fact is the height of arrogance.
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Robina - I am told Info-track has latest governor polling - here is Buzeki v Mandago.
(https://scontent.fnbo3-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/20031551_829297490578150_6426478709017757490_n.jpg?oh=28b49ab4f97a67260227423ccfaad875&oe=59FD3DB2)
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Waaa..won't DPORK swallow his own words after publicly admonishing Buzeki?
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Why - either one of them is close to WSR - and would do just fine.
https://citizentv.co.ke/news/buzeki-leading-in-hotly-contested-uasin-gishu-race-pollster-170626/
Buzeki, who was trounced during the Jubilee primaries by Mandago for Uasin Gishu Gubernatorial race is now leading with a 54.2% approval rating, while Mandago would garner 42.1% of the votes.
In Mombasa County, Governor Ali Hassan Joho takes a landslide lead with 63% approval rating, leaving a gaping margin between him and Jubilee’s Shahbal Suleiman who garners 15.3%, followed by Wiper Senator Hassan Omar at a distant 4.8%.
According to Infotrak, incumbent Senator Bonny Khalwale vying under Ford Kenya for Kakamega Gubernatorial seat would lose to ODM incumbent governor, Wycliffe Oparanya, who is leading the polls with 68.3% and Khalwale shadowing him with 13.1%.
Waaa..won't DPORK swallow his own words after publicly admonishing Buzeki?
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Exactly, moving the numbers around and appearing to be objective is the rug you throw on the faces of the guillable while your bottom line remains the same-53% win for Ouru. You can just say you believe Ouru will win by 53% as your educated political opinion without trying to make it superior to the dueling political opinions of who is going to win. I am sure NASA people can produce a table showing that they will get 10 million votes.
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Exactly, moving the numbers around and appearing to be objective is the rug you throw on the faces of the guillable while your bottom line remains the same-53% win for Ouru. You can just say you believe Ouru will win by 53% as your educated political opinion without trying to make it superior to the dueling political opinions of who is going to win. I am sure NASA people can produce a table showing that they will get 10 million votes.
Guess what when the next cooked poll comes it will be 53%
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Why - either one of them is close to WSR - and would do just fine.
https://citizentv.co.ke/news/buzeki-leading-in-hotly-contested-uasin-gishu-race-pollster-170626/
Buzeki, who was trounced during the Jubilee primaries by Mandago for Uasin Gishu Gubernatorial race is now leading with a 54.2% approval rating, while Mandago would garner 42.1% of the votes.
In Mombasa County, Governor Ali Hassan Joho takes a landslide lead with 63% approval rating, leaving a gaping margin between him and Jubilee’s Shahbal Suleiman who garners 15.3%, followed by Wiper Senator Hassan Omar at a distant 4.8%.
According to Infotrak, incumbent Senator Bonny Khalwale vying under Ford Kenya for Kakamega Gubernatorial seat would lose to ODM incumbent governor, Wycliffe Oparanya, who is leading the polls with 68.3% and Khalwale shadowing him with 13.1%.
Waaa..won't DPORK swallow his own words after publicly admonishing Buzeki?
Roughly, seems like only Nandi are backing Mandago
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Pundit - is there a poll for Meru governor?
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I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad :D :D :D.
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Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes than Moi ever got. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.
This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.
Mandago is a foot solider - Buzeki is Ruto business partner.
I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad :D :D :D.
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Nope - and if they did they haven't yet shared - previously they have done lot more polls. The last poll in Meru was in April - and Munya was leading with 45% against Kiraitu 28%. That may give you some comfort however I believe Kiraitu will take it.
Pundit - is there a poll for Meru governor?
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Now if this does not beat logic, tell me what does!
Nope - and if they did they haven't yet shared - previously they have done lot more polls. The last poll in Meru was in April - and Munya was leading with 45% against Kiraitu 28%. That may give you some comfort however I believe Kiraitu will take it.
Pundit - is there a poll for Meru governor?
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Raila has never imposed candidates on anybody. In 2013 he almost ran afoul of the sister when he tried to ask her to stay out of the gubernatorial elections. He stayed away and let Oburu Oginga lose. It is Orengo and others who negotiated a seat for Oburu.
The same has been the case this year. In fact in this cycle the only "imposition" has to put down his foot about family political interests. He had long advised his daughter not to run in Kibera. She just wanted a profile to later go for other public jobs.
Ruto has been imposing leaders everywhere and it is a shame that you stand here to deny the obvious. Let us start with some examples that are closer home:
1. Bomet Governor: Ruto is busy trying to impose Joyce Laboso. He was so determined to impose Laboso that he rigged out the other candidates.
2. Baringo Senate: No less a person than you have been all over here telling us how Ruto will make sure Gideon loses. I can't count how many times you have stated that his opponent will lose because of Ruto.
3. Kabogo, Peter Kenneth and the Sonko Alliance: Ruto is accused of rigging elections against Kabogo and Peter Kenneth in his attempts to impose illiterate governors on Nairobi and Kiambu and by that secure his run in 2022. You can deny or even accuse me of smearing his name in this respect but the fact is THAT is what Peter Kenneth, Kabogo and many other Kikuyu leaders say.
4. Other places: Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo (being rejected by the people).
Lastly, the reason Ruto is jeered in RV by his own people is his attempts to impose leaders on the people. They figure it out and refuse to play ball. That is one of the reasons I do not take your MOAS seriously.
Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.
This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.
I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad :D :D :D.
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only gullible people swallow Baghdad bob crap.....the kicker ' I have predicted accurately the last 3 stolen elections'
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How many times have opinion poll got it wrong. If they were reliable - I won't have done my own MOAS.
Meru -I believe configuration of sub-tribe of merus will be key factor. I have issue witb Infotrack april poll because they sample about 100 people per county. This time round they've tried to increase the sample 800-1000 per county - hopefully the sampling is stratified - to capture regional/sub-tribe factors - and then of course randomly sampled - aka methodology is an issue.
Now if this does not beat logic, tell me what does!
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precisely...garbage in garbage out
Raila has never imposed candidates on anybody. In 2013 he almost ran afoul of the sister when he tried to ask her to stay out of the gubernatorial elections. He stayed away and let Oburu Oginga lose. It is Orengo and others who negotiated a seat for Oburu.
The same has been the case this year. In fact in this cycle the only "imposition" has to put down his foot about family political interests. He had long advised his daughter not to run in Kibera. She just wanted a profile to later go for other public jobs.
Ruto has been imposing leaders everywhere and it is a shame that you stand here to deny the obvious. Let us start with some examples that are closer home:
1. Bomet Governor: Ruto is busy trying to impose Joyce Laboso. He was so determined to impose Laboso that he rigged out the other candidates.
2. Baringo Senate: No less a person than you have been all over here telling us how Ruto will make sure Gideon loses. I can't count how many times you have stated that his opponent will lose because of Ruto.
3. Kabogo, Peter Kenneth and the Sonko Alliance: Ruto is accused of rigging elections against Kabogo and Peter Kenneth in his attempts to impose illiterate governors on Nairobi and Kiambu and by that secure his run in 2022. You can deny or even accuse me of smearing his name in this respect but the fact is THAT is what Peter Kenneth, Kabogo and many other Kikuyu leaders say.
4. Other places: Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo (being rejected by the people).
Lastly, the reason Ruto is jeered in RV by his own people is his attempts to impose leaders on the people. They figure it out and refuse to play ball. That is one of the reasons I do not take your MOAS seriously.
Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.
This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.
I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad :D :D :D.
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So we can agree to completely ignore the polls. The problem comes when you selectively accept and reject the polls.
precisely...garbage in garbage out
Raila has never imposed candidates on anybody. In 2013 he almost ran afoul of the sister when he tried to ask her to stay out of the gubernatorial elections. He stayed away and let Oburu Oginga lose. It is Orengo and others who negotiated a seat for Oburu.
The same has been the case this year. In fact in this cycle the only "imposition" has to put down his foot about family political interests. He had long advised his daughter not to run in Kibera. She just wanted a profile to later go for other public jobs.
Ruto has been imposing leaders everywhere and it is a shame that you stand here to deny the obvious. Let us start with some examples that are closer home:
1. Bomet Governor: Ruto is busy trying to impose Joyce Laboso. He was so determined to impose Laboso that he rigged out the other candidates.
2. Baringo Senate: No less a person than you have been all over here telling us how Ruto will make sure Gideon loses. I can't count how many times you have stated that his opponent will lose because of Ruto.
3. Kabogo, Peter Kenneth and the Sonko Alliance: Ruto is accused of rigging elections against Kabogo and Peter Kenneth in his attempts to impose illiterate governors on Nairobi and Kiambu and by that secure his run in 2022. You can deny or even accuse me of smearing his name in this respect but the fact is THAT is what Peter Kenneth, Kabogo and many other Kikuyu leaders say.
4. Other places: Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo (being rejected by the people).
Lastly, the reason Ruto is jeered in RV by his own people is his attempts to impose leaders on the people. They figure it out and refuse to play ball. That is one of the reasons I do not take your MOAS seriously.
Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.
This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.
I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad :D :D :D.
How many times have opinion poll got it wrong. If they were reliable - I won't have done my own MOAS.
Meru -I believe configuration of sub-tribe of merus will be key factor. I have issue witb Infotrack april poll because they sample about 100 people per county. This time round they've tried to increase the sample 800-1000 per county - hopefully the sampling is stratified - to capture regional/sub-tribe factors - and then of course randomly sampled - aka methodology is an issue.
Now if this does not beat logic, tell me what does!
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You've the creative juice to invent stories on the go. You see the objective way to determine interference in nomination by either Ruto or Uhuru or Raila is to examine the results of the main election. We can start from 2013 - and see how many MP seats ODM lost because Raila interference and preference. We see Ruto - a mere MP - an ICC fugitive -with his small URP party - garnering 70Mps in 2013. ODM a big party that could rival KANU at it's apex scored 90 something mps. A mere 20 mps difference!! Kalonzo a whole VP with a tribe as big as Kalenjin - managed only 23 mps :D :D
We will find out how much interference and preference - come 9th - my suspicion ODM will continue to erode - I am expecting this time round they will win about 80 mps - I need to check final MOAS for my prediction on that - while UhuRuto Jubilee will score 180 plus seats.
Raila has never imposed candidates on anybody. In 2013 he almost ran afoul of the sister when he tried to ask her to stay out of the gubernatorial elections. He stayed away and let Oburu Oginga lose. It is Orengo and others who negotiated a seat for Oburu.
The same has been the case this year. In fact in this cycle the only "imposition" has to put down his foot about family political interests. He had long advised his daughter not to run in Kibera. She just wanted a profile to later go for other public jobs.
Ruto has been imposing leaders everywhere and it is a shame that you stand here to deny the obvious. Let us start with some examples that are closer home:
1. Bomet Governor: Ruto is busy trying to impose Joyce Laboso. He was so determined to impose Laboso that he rigged out the other candidates.
2. Baringo Senate: No less a person than you have been all over here telling us how Ruto will make sure Gideon loses. I can't count how many times you have stated that his opponent will lose because of Ruto.
3. Kabogo, Peter Kenneth and the Sonko Alliance: Ruto is accused of rigging elections against Kabogo and Peter Kenneth in his attempts to impose illiterate governors on Nairobi and Kiambu and by that secure his run in 2022. You can deny or even accuse me of smearing his name in this respect but the fact is THAT is what Peter Kenneth, Kabogo and many other Kikuyu leaders say.
4. Other places: Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo (being rejected by the people).
Lastly, the reason Ruto is jeered in RV by his own people is his attempts to impose leaders on the people. They figure it out and refuse to play ball. That is one of the reasons I do not take your MOAS seriously.
Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.
This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.
I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad :D :D :D.
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They are not entirely wrong - so we can't ignore them - but we just cross-reference it with what we know - for instance if opinion poll says Raila will score 80-90% in Luo Nyanza (like they always do) - with 10% undecided - and we know he'll score 99% - we refine that 80 to 99- bila wasi wasi. Of course often times they get it completely wrong - like in 2013 - info track claimed Raila would win by 53% with Uhuru in 38% -- which was complete bollocks.
So we can agree to completely ignore the polls. The problem comes when you selectively accept and reject the polls.
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For reference of how badly ODM did --- compared to URP see here - 96 mps versus 75 mps - 17 senators versus 12. Thatswhat PM Raila did to what used to be kenya biggest party (before Jubilee) - ODM - after interference, rigging and totally screwing up nomination of 2013. This one [2017] was even more ridiculous - with every candidate employing their own returning officer - and the tribunal have been very busy.
In the meantime be ready to for Jubilee joggernaut - biggest party which will command 200 plus mps - if you had friendly parties.
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This is beyond your paygrade - you were good in laying copper wires for telkom - which is a skill nobody requires anymore - why not upgrade to laying fiber and make money - rather than trying to engage in intellectual discourse you're ill-prepared to participate in.
only gullible people swallow Baghdad bob crap.....the kicker ' I have predicted accurately the last 3 stolen elections'
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That's funny and rich right there....for a self acclaimed 'intellectual' you have good sense of humor Baghdad bob
let me not stop you with yours psyop crap, this is garbage my fren
This is beyond your paygrade - you were good in laying copper wires for telkom - which is a skill nobody requires anymore - why not upgrade to laying fiber and make money - rather than trying to engage in intellectual discourse you're ill-prepared to participate in.
only gullible people swallow Baghdad bob crap.....the kicker ' I have predicted accurately the last 3 stolen elections'
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Î have been looking at the Gubernatorial projections of yours. Here is what you can forget:
1. Vihiga - Unlikely for Chanzu to win even with Mudavadi backing. The race is between Otichilo and Akaranga. But I have to review it a week to elections because Luhyas decide on such contests in the last days. For now it would be Akaranga
2. Salim Mvurya may not even make it to the third spot. Have you heard him speaking? He is a perfect case of appearance and verbal skills mutually exclusive. Duruma are very tiny bro. And not all are supporting him. Quite a huge chunk are ODM and Wiper damu. The race is between ODM and Wiper (Mwakwere).
3. Otuoma : Pole bro. There is an alliance Teso, Khayo, Marachi and Samia as follows: Governor, Senator, Deputy Governor and Women's rep. One cannot ask Ojaamong to cease to be governor without asking Wako and Mutua the same. Otuoma misbehaved and he will go home quietly next month. His biggest mistake was to at one time associate with Namwamba. No matter how much he denies him, it has stuck. and now he can't use ODM or any party thanks to the strictness of IEBC on the matter.
4. John Munyes to beat Nanok would be a joke of the year. Much as you are relying on these demagogues to measure the outcomes, you really don't know them that well, do you? I urge you to meet Nanok when you next go to Turkana, because he will still be governor. The guy being accused of wanting to give Kikuyus Turkana oil has no chance bro. Munyes has NOT opposed the 5% and Caps. I was surprised ordinary people in the villages know about "cups" :D.
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Interesting. Now that is what I like. Objectively disagreeing. Overally I think your confessed love for ODM as party is clouding your judgement. You're also mixing "local" issues with national issues. You need to cross-check how I have done presidential moas - for instance in Kwale & turkana - raila still wins by huge margins - with governor or senate MOAS. What I notice is that for women rep or senate - it will mostly match the presidential moas - except in case like Sifuna of Nairobi :) who is just hopeless.
1) Vihiga - This one is admittedly very close contest.Looking at the tribal maths of Vihiga - we know maragoli are 60%; tiriki 20%; bunyore (20%). Maragolis have two candidate (Akaranga & Chanzu - split that into two - pro-madvd & pro-akaranga - say 30% each); Bunyore have Otichillo(20%)...so for me tie-breakers are Tirikis - and here I see ANC's Madvd & Khaniri(senator) swaying the Tiriki for Yusuf Chanzu.
2) Kwale - First Murvya unlike Joho or kingi has delivered development - he is another Mutua or Oparanya or Lusaka or Mwangi wa Iria or Prof Chepkwony - secondly as you rightly observe this will battle btw Digo (two strong candidates - Mwakere & Chipera), Duruma (Mvurya) and Kambas. Normally Kwale kambas align with Duruma - however party consideration (wiper) may give Mwakere some votes. Kwale is 4 const; I see Mvurya taking his home - Kinango ( the ever nimble Gonza Rai the mp is big supporter) and Lunga Lunga (thanks to Mwashetani). I don't think Jubilee will score that many votes - so Mvurya win and Raila takes about 65% of it (losing 10% to Jubilee).
3) Outuma. I think what Gov Ojaamong did by rigging Iteso vote so blatantly is injustice the luhyas in Busia will not forgive. Otuoma won the nomination. I don't see any change. Unlike say Lusaka or Oparanya - Outuma has bad reputation for doing nothing - even in Iteso itself.
4)John Munyes - Oil versus 50B devolved money. Oil which is still a pipe dream versus Turkana that receives 15B and has nothing to show for it. That is why all MPS, most of MCAS and pretty much everyone want Nanok out. Before you consider the regionalism - Turkana South - Turkana Central & Turkana North.
As for Oil - you need to see presidential moas - here they will sort Uhuru by voting largely for Raila (65%) - but Uhuru will improve by 10%.
The places I'd love to revist - is 1) Bungoma - I think Lusaka may give WWW a run for his money 2) West Pokot - Kachapin - may not lose that easily 3) Samburu - I am not sure how strong former TSC boss Gabriel Lengoboini is 3) Marsabit & Isiolo & Tana River & Lamu - are also very close - tight contest - coz of tribal arithmetics.
Î have been looking at the Gubernatorial projections of yours. Here is what you can forget:
1. Vihiga - Unlikely for Chanzu to win even with Mudavadi backing. The race is between Otichilo and Akaranga. But I have to review it a week to elections because Luhyas decide on such contests in the last days. For now it would be Akaranga
2. Salim Mvurya may not even make it to the third spot. Have you heard him speaking? He is a perfect case of appearance and verbal skills mutually exclusive. Duruma are very tiny bro. And not all are supporting him. Quite a huge chunk are ODM and Wiper damu. The race is between ODM and Wiper (Mwakwere).
3. Otuoma : Pole bro. There is an alliance Teso, Khayo, Marachi and Samia as follows: Governor, Senator, Deputy Governor and Women's rep. One cannot ask Ojaamong to cease to be governor without asking Wako and Mutua the same. Otuoma misbehaved and he will go home quietly next month. His biggest mistake was to at one time associate with Namwamba. No matter how much he denies him, it has stuck. and now he can't use ODM or any party thanks to the strictness of IEBC on the matter.
4. John Munyes to beat Nanok would be a joke of the year. Much as you are relying on these demagogues to measure the outcomes, you really don't know them that well, do you? I urge you to meet Nanok when you next go to Turkana, because he will still be governor. The guy being accused of wanting to give Kikuyus Turkana oil has no chance bro. Munyes has NOT opposed the 5% and Caps. I was surprised ordinary people in the villages know about "cups" :D.
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Vihiga: The strength of Akaranga is through his PAG church where he is a minister and he is treated a a god.
But Chanzu has a shocker for him: ALL the muslims vote for him almost to a man. That is how he licked Ligale. However PAG and Muslims are few or absent in Bunyore where Ottichilo will reign supreme with Church of God and Bunyore nationalism. Plus the fact that ODM is very popular in Bunyore as Raila is.
May be if I correct myself, the three candidates are balanced. The role of Mudavadi might be significant because he comes from North Maragoli and has a lot of fanatical following there which Akaranga cannot penetrate. But will be enough to help Chanzu? He has been short of money so that will play in to the hands of the two moneyed opponents.
Kwale: Please redo your research on Mvurya. It is his own home area that he will suffer the biggest defeat. He cannot convince the Digos to vote for him. There is no language to use. Much as I hate it, I give the seat to Mwakwere. Mwakwere is impossible to beat now that he for the first time agreed to go along with his people. But Uhuru should start selling his lands in Kwale or get ready to kill and have his guards killed. The biggest grudge against Uhuru is land. His father stole land that had some significance. They used to practice their witchcraft there or something.. :D
You mixed up the Ojaamong and Otuoma. But I can assure you whatever crimes a candidate committed during nominations are usually forgiven in Busia as long as one is loyal to ODM
Interesting. Now that is what I like. Objectively disagreeing. Overally I think your confessed love for ODM as party is clouding your judgement. You're also mixing "local" issues with national issues. You need to cross-check how I have done presidential moas - for instance in Kwale & turkana - raila still wins by huge margins.
1) Vihiga - This one is admittedly very close contest.Looking at the tribal maths of Vihiga - we know maragoli are 60%; tiriki 20%; bunyore (20%). Maragolis have two candidate (Akaranga & Chanzu - split that into two - pro-madvd & pro-akaranga - say 30% each); Bunyore have Otichillo(20%)...so for me tie-breakers are Tirikis - and here I see ANC's Madvd & Khaniri(senator) swaying the Tiriki for Yusuf Chanzu.
2) Kwale - First Murvya unlike Joho or kingi has delivered development - he is another Mutua or Mwangi wa Iria or Prof Chepkwony - secondly as you rightly observe this will battle btw Digo (two strong candidates - Mwakere & Chipera), Duruma (Mvurya) and Kambas. Normally Kwale kambas align with Duruma - however party consideration (wiper) may give Mwakere some votes. Kwale is 4 const; I see Mvurya taking his home - Kinango ( the ever nimble Gonza Rai the mp is big supporter) and Lunga Lunga (thanks to Mwashetani). I don't think Jubilee will score that many votes - so Mvurya win and Raila takes about 65% of it (losing 10% to Jubilee).
3) Outuma. I think what Gov Ojaamong did by rigging Iteso vote so blatantly is injustice the luhyas in Busia will not forgive. Otuoma won the nomination. I don't see any change. Unlike say Lusaka or Oparanya - Outuma has bad reputation for doing nothing - even in Iteso itself.
4)John Munyes - Oil versus 50B devolved money. Oil which is still a pipe dream versus Turkana that receives 15B and has nothing to show for it. That is why all MPS, most of MCAS and pretty much everyone want Nanok out. Before you consider the regionalism - Turkana South - Turkana Central & Turkana North.
As for Oil - you need to see presidential moas - here they will sort Uhuru by voting largely for Raila (65%) - but Uhuru will improve by 10%.
Î have been looking at the Gubernatorial projections of yours. Here is what you can forget:
1. Vihiga - Unlikely for Chanzu to win even with Mudavadi backing. The race is between Otichilo and Akaranga. But I have to review it a week to elections because Luhyas decide on such contests in the last days. For now it would be Akaranga
2. Salim Mvurya may not even make it to the third spot. Have you heard him speaking? He is a perfect case of appearance and verbal skills mutually exclusive. Duruma are very tiny bro. And not all are supporting him. Quite a huge chunk are ODM and Wiper damu. The race is between ODM and Wiper (Mwakwere).
3. Otuoma : Pole bro. There is an alliance Teso, Khayo, Marachi and Samia as follows: Governor, Senator, Deputy Governor and Women's rep. One cannot ask Ojaamong to cease to be governor without asking Wako and Mutua the same. Otuoma misbehaved and he will go home quietly next month. His biggest mistake was to at one time associate with Namwamba. No matter how much he denies him, it has stuck. and now he can't use ODM or any party thanks to the strictness of IEBC on the matter.
4. John Munyes to beat Nanok would be a joke of the year. Much as you are relying on these demagogues to measure the outcomes, you really don't know them that well, do you? I urge you to meet Nanok when you next go to Turkana, because he will still be governor. The guy being accused of wanting to give Kikuyus Turkana oil has no chance bro. Munyes has NOT opposed the 5% and Caps. I was surprised ordinary people in the villages know about "cups" :D.
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Vihiga - You didn't talk about Tirikis - who for me will make or break the tie.
Kwale - I think you're not being objective - Mvurya has development record, support of Kinango & lunga lunga.Mwakere his Matuga & Chipera Mswabweni.
Ojaamong - made a fool of luhyas by pulling a kibaki on them - I doubt luhyas will forgive that - if they accept that - it would mean minority Iteso are now majority of Busia - my bet is they will want to set the record straight But they will still vote ODM 95% (according to my MOAS) for presidential seat - I have maintained Uhuru at 5% - although maybe Ababu, Ojiambo and Okemo - may improve that to 10% - but without any evidence I am inclined to accept Uhuru will get 5%.
Vihiga: The strength of Akaranga is through his PAG church where he is a minister and he is treated a a god.
But Chanzu has a shocker for him: ALL the muslims vote for him almost to a man. That is how he licked Ligale. However PAG and Muslims are few or absent in Bunyore where Ottichilo will reign supreme with Church of God and Bunyore nationalism. Plus the fact that ODM is very popular in Bunyore as Raila is.
May be if I correct myself, the three candidates are balanced. The role of Mudavadi might be significant because he comes from North Maragoli and has a lot of fanatical following there which Akaranga cannot penetrate. But will be enough to help Chanzu? He has been short of money so that will play in to the hands of the two moneyed opponents.
Kwale: Please redo your research on Mvurya. It is his own home area that he will suffer the biggest defeat. He cannot convince the Digos to vote for him. There is no language to use. Much as I hate it, I give the seat to Mwakwere. Mwakwere is impossible to beat now that he for the first time agreed to go along with his people. But Uhuru should start selling his lands in Kwale or get ready to kill and have his guards killed. The biggest grudge against Uhuru is land. His father stole land that had some significance. They used to practice their witchcraft there or something.. :D
You mixed up the Ojaamong and Otuoma. But I can assure you whatever crimes a candidate committed during nominations are usually forgiven in Busia as long as one is loyal to ODM
[/quote]
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Take it easy on ODM - it was a coalition of expediency like NARC - which later split into URP and NDP - after earlier losing Wiper. There was no ideological glue just like there is none in Jubilee. The latter will be lucky to survive past the Ruto presidency.
For reference of how badly ODM did --- compared to URP see here - 96 mps versus 75 mps - 17 senators versus 12. Thatswhat PM Raila did to what used to be kenya biggest party (before Jubilee) - ODM - after interference, rigging and totally screwing up nomination of 2013. This one [2017] was even more ridiculous - with every candidate employing their own returning officer - and the tribunal have been very busy.
In the meantime be ready to for Jubilee joggernaut - biggest party which will command 200 plus mps - if you had friendly parties.
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When you say they had no ideology?-what do you really mean. It always amaze me what people think ideology is.
noun
1
A system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy. Ideology can be very complex such as communism or very simple such as nyoombaism.
‘the ideology of republicanism’
More example
1.1 The set of beliefs characteristic of a social group or individual.
‘a critique of bourgeois ideology’
Take it easy on ODM - it was a coalition of expediency like NARC - which later split into URP and NDP - after earlier losing Wiper. There was no ideological glue just like there is none in Jubilee. The latter will be lucky to survive past the Ruto presidency.
For reference of how badly ODM did --- compared to URP see here - 96 mps versus 75 mps - 17 senators versus 12. Thatswhat PM Raila did to what used to be kenya biggest party (before Jubilee) - ODM - after interference, rigging and totally screwing up nomination of 2013. This one [2017] was even more ridiculous - with every candidate employing their own returning officer - and the tribunal have been very busy.
In the meantime be ready to for Jubilee joggernaut - biggest party which will command 200 plus mps - if you had friendly parties.
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URP was conservative and Ruto marketed family and christian values. Ruto like Moi is vehemently opposed to gay rights and such. They believe in capitalism. As Kalenjin are the biggest in Kamatusa, he compromised federalism for devolution.
ODM and Raila are liberal and socialist. They believe redistribution of wealth and power.
TNA wing of Jubilee of course was the centre... nationalist and capitalist but socially secular / moderate.
Ruto is more ideologically compatible with Uhuru than Raila.
When you say they had no ideology?-what do you really mean. It always amaze me what people think ideology is.
noun
1
A system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy. Ideology can be very complex such as communism or very simple such as nyoombaism.
‘the ideology of republicanism’
More example
1.1 The set of beliefs characteristic of a social group or individual.
‘a critique of bourgeois ideology’
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You are talking about their differences and plotting them on the Left right ideological spectrum. I do not believe they came together because of their differences but they must have came together because they agreed on something. Could it be that they came together because of an ideology that cannot be plotted on the Left-Right ideological spectrum and maybe that is why you have a problem figuring out where they belong on that spectrum.
What brought them together is what students of politics should be trying to make coherent instead of declaring that "our politicians do not have ideology" or that "politics in Kenya is all about tribes".
You do not know how many times I hear educated Kenyans make these statements and everybody agrees knowingly and cringe as I continue to sip my beer. You wonder what the struggle for 1st liberation, 2nd liberation, devolution, democracy, freedom of speech, development chap chap, good governance, ant-corruption, lord of poverty, tribalism, etc are all about.
The question is, must ideology be only about some sets of economic and social theories as defined by the Europeans? Does ideology have to be studied in a university course. You may disagree with their ideology but that does not mean they do not have one and it does not have to be conservative and
URP was conservative and Ruto marketed family and christian values. Ruto like Moi is vehemently opposed to gay rights and such. They believe in capitalism. As Kalenjin are the biggest in Kamatusa, he compromised federalism for devolution.
ODM and Raila are liberal and socialist. They believe redistribution of wealth and power.
TNA wing of Jubilee of course was the centre... nationalist and capitalist but socially secular / moderate.
Ruto is more ideologically compatible with Uhuru than Raila.
When you say they had no ideology?-what do you really mean. It always amaze me what people think ideology is.
noun
1
A system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy. Ideology can be very complex such as communism or very simple such as nyoombaism.
‘the ideology of republicanism’
More example
1.1 The set of beliefs characteristic of a social group or individual.
‘a critique of bourgeois ideology’
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You are talking about their differences and plotting them on the Left right ideological spectrum. I do not believe they came together because of their differences but they must have came together because they agreed on something. Could it be that they came together because of an ideology that cannot be plotted on the Left-Right ideological spectrum and maybe that is why you have a problem figuring out where they belong on that spectrum.
What brought them together is what students of politics should be trying to make coherent instead of declaring that "our politicians do not have ideology" or that "politics in Kenya is all about tribes".
You do not know how many times I hear educated Kenyans make these statements and everybody agrees knowingly and cringe as I continue to sip my beer. You wonder what the struggle for 1st liberation, 2nd liberation, devolution, democracy, freedom of speech, development chap chap, good governance, ant-corruption, lord of poverty, tribalism, etc are all about.
The question is, must ideology be only about some sets of economic and social theories as defined by the Europeans? Does ideology have to be studied in a university course. You may disagree with their ideology but that does not mean they do not have one and it does not have to be conservative and
URP was conservative and Ruto marketed family and christian values. Ruto like Moi is vehemently opposed to gay rights and such. They believe in capitalism. As Kalenjin are the biggest in Kamatusa, he compromised federalism for devolution.
ODM and Raila are liberal and socialist. They believe redistribution of wealth and power.
TNA wing of Jubilee of course was the centre... nationalist and capitalist but socially secular / moderate.
Ruto is more ideologically compatible with Uhuru than Raila.
When you say they had no ideology?-what do you really mean. It always amaze me what people think ideology is.
noun
1
A system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy. Ideology can be very complex such as communism or very simple such as nyoombaism.
‘the ideology of republicanism’
More example
1.1 The set of beliefs characteristic of a social group or individual.
‘a critique of bourgeois ideology’
Good point on ideology,
But what Kenyans mean when they speak of politicians lacking ideology is, either the ideology is not apparent, or it's so simplistic such as just ascending to power for the sake of it, to term it as ideology.
Parties here are simply tools to ascend to power. They don't stand for anything
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When you say they had no ideology?-what do you really mean. It always amaze me what people think ideology is.
noun
1
A system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy. Ideology can be very complex such as communism or very simple such as nyoombaism.
‘the ideology of republicanism’
More example
1.1 The set of beliefs characteristic of a social group or individual.
‘a critique of bourgeois ideology’
Good point on ideology,
But what Kenyans mean when they speak of politicians lacking ideology is, either the ideology is not apparent, or it's so simplistic such as just ascending to power for the sake of it, to term it as ideology.
Parties here are simply tools to ascend to power. They don't stand for anything
I have never been able to tease out a fundamental difference, besides the tribe and biometric information, between Raila and kamwana. If there is a better explanation than the crude tribalism of our man, for why certain tribes align with certain parties across socioeconomic lines, I am yet to see it.
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I think the reason why we cannot find an ideology in our politics is because of a misconception that an ideology must fit neatly into the European left to right ideological spectrum chart. If we cannot plot it in there and give it names like "far left", "left of center", "centrist", "right of center", or "far right", then we assume that its not an ideology. But even worse, when we do not quickly recognize it using those litmus tests then we tend to belittle it and describe it in very condescending language. For example, when I said I have supported Raila in the last three elections and I happen to be a luo then nobody bothers to ask me why because they assume that I am not capable of having an ideology and the only logical explanation is tribalism. Many Kenyans with all levels of education understood, debated, fought, died, took sides in the 1st liberation and 2nd liberation movements but they do not get credit for having an ideology. The only thing that stands out for western educated political analysts is "tribalism" because it is easy and it makes them sound superior. I was in Kenya recently and if you ask most people why they support NASA or Jubilee they will articulate reasons other than tribalism however, the elite pays them no mind and assume that their only reason is tribalism.
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I think the reason why we cannot find an ideology in our politics is because of a misconception that an ideology must fit neatly into the European left to right ideological spectrum chart. If we cannot plot it in there and give it names like "far left", "left of center", "centrist", "right of center", or "far right", then we assume that its not an ideology. But even worse, when we do not quickly recognize it using those litmus tests then we tend to belittle it and describe it in very condescending language. For example, when I said I have supported Raila in the last three elections and I happen to be a luo then nobody bothers to ask me why because they assume that I am not capable of having an ideology and the only logical explanation is tribalism. Many Kenyans with all levels of education understood, debated, fought, died, took sides in the 1st liberation and 2nd liberation movements but they do not get credit for having an ideology. The only thing that stands out for western educated political analysts is "tribalism" because it is easy and it makes them sound superior. I was in Kenya recently and if you ask most people why they support NASA or Jubilee they will articulate reasons other than tribalism however, the elite pays them no mind and assume that their only reason is tribalism.
Whatever definition you work with of ideology, tribe trumps that for a better part
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I think the reason why we cannot find an ideology in our politics is because of a misconception that an ideology must fit neatly into the European left to right ideological spectrum chart. If we cannot plot it in there and give it names like "far left", "left of center", "centrist", "right of center", or "far right", then we assume that its not an ideology. But even worse, when we do not quickly recognize it using those litmus tests then we tend to belittle it and describe it in very condescending language. For example, when I said I have supported Raila in the last three elections and I happen to be a luo then nobody bothers to ask me why because they assume that I am not capable of having an ideology and the only logical explanation is tribalism. Many Kenyans with all levels of education understood, debated, fought, died, took sides in the 1st liberation and 2nd liberation movements but they do not get credit for having an ideology. The only thing that stands out for western educated political analysts is "tribalism" because it is easy and it makes them sound superior. I was in Kenya recently and if you ask most people why they support NASA or Jubilee they will articulate reasons other than tribalism however, the elite pays them no mind and assume that their only reason is tribalism.
Whatever definition you work with of ideology, tribe trumps that for a better part
vooke
I support Raila have done since 1997 after meeting him in 1992. What's my tribe? Joho supports him, what's his tribe? Check the number of votes Isaac Hassan decided to award Raila. What percentage are Luos? How about Uhuru what percentage of his votes are kikuyu?
Would you on that basis be willing to name the most tribal of the two persons - Uhuru and Raila? Since as you say tribe trumps all else?
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I think the reason why we cannot find an ideology in our politics is because of a misconception that an ideology must fit neatly into the European left to right ideological spectrum chart. If we cannot plot it in there and give it names like "far left", "left of center", "centrist", "right of center", or "far right", then we assume that its not an ideology. But even worse, when we do not quickly recognize it using those litmus tests then we tend to belittle it and describe it in very condescending language. For example, when I said I have supported Raila in the last three elections and I happen to be a luo then nobody bothers to ask me why because they assume that I am not capable of having an ideology and the only logical explanation is tribalism. Many Kenyans with all levels of education understood, debated, fought, died, took sides in the 1st liberation and 2nd liberation movements but they do not get credit for having an ideology. The only thing that stands out for western educated political analysts is "tribalism" because it is easy and it makes them sound superior. I was in Kenya recently and if you ask most people why they support NASA or Jubilee they will articulate reasons other than tribalism however, the elite pays them no mind and assume that their only reason is tribalism.
Whatever definition you work with of ideology, tribe trumps that for a better part
vooke
I support Raila have done since 1997 after meeting him in 1992. What's my tribe? Joho supports him, what's his tribe? Check the number of votes Isaac Hassan decided to award Raila. What percentage are Luos? How about Uhuru what percentage of his votes are kikuyu?
Would you on that basis be willing to name the most tribal of the two persons - Uhuru and Raila? Since as you say tribe trumps all else?
Babu is light years ahead of Uhunye in terms of appeal outside their respective tribes. No doubt about that.
The average Luo is more likely to support him not because of what he stands for but that he is their own. What about the average Luhya? Historical cultural bonds-they are neighbors,historical grievances against previous governments-all they want is a different person at the helm, Babu's existing clout in and of itself makes a vote for him reasonable. In fact, I believe this is what made Matiba popular; the very fact that he appeared to stand a chance against Moi. Kina Aukot and Peter Kenneth would probably make better presidents but we all know they don't stand a chance. So even if you identify with their ideologies, you can't waste your vote
what am saying is , I doubt out of the 15M or so who will cast votes,10% are interested in ideologies
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Give some credit to the expansion of education first under Moi and then big time under NARC and NARA.
The many medium to highly educated Kikuyus that I see supporting baba more than many Luos have good reason for it. They have met Raila like I did and realized he has a vision. The reason many universities in the US scramble to invite him isn't because he lacks a coherent ideology.
We're back to the sixties when Kenyatta's lack of ideology and hatred for maumau was glorified while Odinga socialist leanings were smeared as "communism" and Cold War support requested to contain him. Never mind the architects of KPU were Kikuyus.
Here you're saying Luos are incapable of supporting someone on ideological basis.
I have heard some kikuyu intelligentsia say with a straight face that " Luos are like sheep" voting according to how Raila orders them. Until 2002 Luos and Kikuyus had the same and identical voting trends - with one caveat that in 1960s they voted overwhelmingly for Kanu and rejected kadu. Kanu even then was seen as an offshoot of KCA and later KAU all known kikuyu outfits.
After 2002 the Luo joined a rare club of Luhyas, miji kenda etc. needless to say the kikuyu have yet to vote enmase for anybody outside their tribe.
So vooke, let's agree on a criteria to use to determine whether voting trends are based on tribe ( my auto correct suggested trivialities).
Babu is light years ahead of Uhunye in terms of appeal outside their respective tribes. No doubt about that.
The average Luo is more likely to support him not because of what he stands for but that he is their own. What about the average Luhya? Historical cultural bonds-they are neighbors,historical grievances against previous governments-all they want is a different person at the helm, Babu's existing clout in and of itself makes a vote for him reasonable. In fact, I believe this is what made Matiba popular; the very fact that he appeared to stand a chance against Moi. Kina Aukot and Peter Kenneth would probably make better presidents but we all know they don't stand a chance. So even if you identify with their ideologies, you can't waste your vote
what am saying is , I doubt out of the 15M or so who will cast votes,10% are interested in ideologies
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Here goes the useless debate.
I guess if we are going by broad definition of ideology (to include tribalism, clannism, regionalism, etc) then the ours is an ideology-driven politics - where tribal kingpins form temporary alliance for sake of getting power and discard them as soon as they disgree. As for Kichwa believing in Raila on anything else rather than tribalism...that clear is rich! The first test was in 96 when all Luos troops from Ford-K to NDP. The second test of that ideology that Kichwa failed was 98 when NDP merged with KANU - and only few progressive like Orengo then refused - but Kichwa trooped to Baba Moi bosom.If Moi had endorsed Raila - Kichwa right now would be writting long inshas about KANU and why it's the best party in Africa. Then LDP then NARC then ODM then CORD then NASA - I mean it's been a full circle - where all sort of "ideologies" have been mixed and re-mixed.
Kenya politics is purely and nearly totally tribal. Only some 3-5% of kenya can be described non-tribal. Those voting for Raila or Uhuru who are not Kikuiyu or Luo are voting for their tribal leaders indirectly. The maragolis will vote MaDVD through Raila. The coast brigade will be voting for Hassan Johos/Kingis [regional kingpin]. You can go on and on. That is why if today MaDVD wake up and say Uhuru tosha -- his troops will fall in line. If Joho patches his difference with Uhuru - the coast will soften.
The only way to win in Kenya is simple. Assemble the largest tribal coalition. Win the big tribes. Win the small tribes. Win the clans. Through their leaders.
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What is silly and meaningless is the simplistic crap that "Kenyan politics is all about tribe". What does that mean anyway? NOTHING!!. Explain to me how 1) the 1st Liberation struggle was about tribe 2) how the 2nd liberation was about tribe 3) how the 2002 defeat of Moi/Kanu and project ouru was about tribe, 4) How the referendum for the new katiba was tribal 3) how the 2017 rejection of the failures of ouruto is all about tribe. Stop trivializing and reducing complex Kenyan politics to fit your over stretched ego. Translate to me how those who are complaining about corruption, bei ya unga, unemployment, no access to health care, bad road, corruption etc. are all engaged in tribal politics. You have lied to people for too long. Its ok to support ouru, campaign for him and predict that ouru will win but that does not mean your premise that tribe is the motivating factor of how Kenyans vote is true. When Jomo saw that he was losing the ideological debate to Jaramogi, he made it tribal and that is what you are trying to do. It worked then but it may not work today. It only takes one election like 2002 to destroy your premise and all the juju statistics you call MOAS. Even witchdoctors are right sometimes.
Here goes the useless debate.
I guess if we are going by broad definition of ideology (to include tribalism, clannism, regionalism, etc) then the ours is an ideology-driven politics - where tribal kingpins form temporary alliance for sake of getting power and discard them as soon as they disgree. As for Kichwa believing in Raila on anything else rather than tribalism...that clear is rich! The first test was in 96 when all Luos troops from Ford-K to NDP. The second test of that ideology that Kichwa failed was 98 when NDP merged with KANU - and only few progressive like Orengo then refused - but Kichwa trooped to Baba Moi bosom.If Moi had endorsed Raila - Kichwa right now would be writting long inshas about KANU and why it's the best party in Africa. Then LDP then NARC then ODM then CORD then NASA - I mean it's been a full circle - where all sort of "ideologies" have been mixed and re-mixed.
Kenya politics is purely and nearly totally tribal. Only some 3-5% of kenya can be described non-tribal. Those voting for Raila or Uhuru who are not Kikuiyu or Luo are voting for their tribal leaders indirectly. The maragolis will vote MaDVD through Raila. The coast brigade will be voting for Hassan Johos/Kingis [regional kingpin]. You can go on and on. That is why if today MaDVD wake up and say Uhuru tosha -- his troops will fall in line. If Joho patches his difference with Uhuru - the coast will soften.
The only way to win in Kenya is simple. Assemble the largest tribal coalition. Win the big tribes. Win the small tribes. Win the clans. Through their leaders.
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What you're calling first or 3rd liberation or 2010 constitution are the rare instances when most of the tribes agree something got to change. It doesn't mean tribalism has ended. It just mean the majority of tribes are convinced this the way to go. 1st liberation was not Uhuru- Jaramogi contest - it was kenya getting independence. Luos,Kambas and Kikuyu aligned together. Kalenjin, coast and Luhyas aligned together into KADU. All wanted Mzungu gone. After Jaramogi fell out with Kenyatta - Kenyatta simply did what politicians have been doing - he got kalenjin, coast and luhyas -
to replace Luos - and from there Jaramogi was clearly just like Raila now - DEAD on ARRIVAL - Kenyatta had managed to gobble together a bigger tribal coalition and had isolated the Luos. The ideology bla de bla is just a cover that politician use - because it doesn't sound good to say we Luos want to become PORK --- so you sugar-coat it with stuff - justice/equality - while the other side talks about say development/anti-socialism. Kenyatta's coalition would remain intact until Moi started falling out with Kikuyus & Luhyas with massive rigging of 1988 - that coalition of Luos, Kikuyus and Luhyas would toil it but unable to unite - Moi's minority coalition continue rulling when 70% of the country was opposed to him- until 2002 - when Moi did the unthinkable by appointing a Kikuyu - leaving Raila & others with little option except to back another kikuyu - Kibaki. Moi decision to back Uhuru also raptured his KADU coalition that had kept him in power because coast, maragolis, kambas felt betrayed and joined Kibaki. After that - all the pretence of ideology of 90s from kikuyu politicians and intelligensia disappeared as it became the time to eat.
And of course Raila fell out with Kibaki - and he inherited Moi coalition as ODM - that didn't last long - Kambas bolted out with Kalonzo - and Ruto has been trying to reclaim the remainder of KADU coalition from Raila.
So at end of the day - TRIBE - TRIBAL COALITION - define our politics. Ideology is zero. There will be time when tribal coalitions align to form a near national coalition - like 61 (all united against Mzungu)..92 (70% of country united against MOi & his tribal coalition) - or 2002 (65% of the country opposed Moi - who had raptured his tribal coalition by pulling a move nobody has been able to understand) - or 2010 - 70% of the country voted Yes --and that may confuse Kichwa that we have "abandoned" tribalism.
What is silly and meaningless is the simplistic crap that "Kenyan politics is all about tribe". What does that mean anyway? NOTHING!!. Explain to me how 1) the 1st Liberation struggle was about tribe 2) how the 2nd liberation was about tribe 3) how the 2002 defeat of Moi/Kanu and project ouru was about tribe, 4) How the referendum for the new katiba was tribal 3) how the 2017 rejection of the failures of ouruto is all about tribe. Stop trivializing and reducing complex Kenyan politics to fit your over stretched ego. Translate to me how those who are complaining about corruption, bei ya unga, unemployment, no access to health care, bad road, corruption etc. are all engaged in tribal politics. You have lied to people for too long. Its ok to support ouru, campaign for him and predict that ouru will win but that does not mean your premise that tribe is the motivating factor of how Kenyans vote is true. When Jomo saw that he was losing the ideological debate to Jaramogi, he made it tribal and that is what you are trying to do. It worked then but it may not work today. It only takes one election like 2002 to destroy your premise and all the juju statistics you call MOAS. Even witchdoctors are right sometimes.
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What is silly and meaningless is the simplistic crap that "Kenyan politics is all about tribe". What does that mean anyway? NOTHING!!. Explain to me how 1) the 1st Liberation struggle was about tribe 2) how the 2nd liberation was about tribe 3) how the 2002 defeat of Moi/Kanu and project ouru was about tribe, 4) How the referendum for the new katiba was tribal 3) how the 2017 rejection of the failures of ouruto is all about tribe. Stop trivializing and reducing complex Kenyan politics to fit your over stretched ego. Translate to me how those who are complaining about corruption, bei ya unga, unemployment, no access to health care, bad road, corruption etc. are all engaged in tribal politics. You have lied to people for too long. Its ok to support ouru, campaign for him and predict that ouru will win but that does not mean your premise that tribe is the motivating factor of how Kenyans vote is true. When Jomo saw that he was losing the ideological debate to Jaramogi, he made it tribal and that is what you are trying to do. It worked then but it may not work today. It only takes one election like 2002 to destroy your premise and all the juju statistics you call MOAS. Even witchdoctors are right sometimes.
Here goes the useless debate.
I guess if we are going by broad definition of ideology (to include tribalism, clannism, regionalism, etc) then the ours is an ideology-driven politics - where tribal kingpins form temporary alliance for sake of getting power and discard them as soon as they disgree. As for Kichwa believing in Raila on anything else rather than tribalism...that clear is rich! The first test was in 96 when all Luos troops from Ford-K to NDP. The second test of that ideology that Kichwa failed was 98 when NDP merged with KANU - and only few progressive like Orengo then refused - but Kichwa trooped to Baba Moi bosom.If Moi had endorsed Raila - Kichwa right now would be writting long inshas about KANU and why it's the best party in Africa. Then LDP then NARC then ODM then CORD then NASA - I mean it's been a full circle - where all sort of "ideologies" have been mixed and re-mixed.
Kenya politics is purely and nearly totally tribal. Only some 3-5% of kenya can be described non-tribal. Those voting for Raila or Uhuru who are not Kikuiyu or Luo are voting for their tribal leaders indirectly. The maragolis will vote MaDVD through Raila. The coast brigade will be voting for Hassan Johos/Kingis [regional kingpin]. You can go on and on. That is why if today MaDVD wake up and say Uhuru tosha -- his troops will fall in line. If Joho patches his difference with Uhuru - the coast will soften.
The only way to win in Kenya is simple. Assemble the largest tribal coalition. Win the big tribes. Win the small tribes. Win the clans. Through their leaders.
There are issues that Kenyans care about besides the tribe. That is not in dispute. Corruption, the economy, security etc. They just believe their tribesman knows best how to deal with them. Even if he is a major part of the problem. The practical result is they don't care what the other side has to offer.
I think tribalism was not as entrenched as it is today after the 2nd liberation. Even though you could see the nascent outlines then, there was still room for change. Open tribalism was still frowned upon. Those outlines hardened after Kibaki failed to take advantage of the NARC goodwill and slay it once and for all.
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Have you honestly considered the fact that maybe you know nothing about both ideology and tribal voting.
Let me break it down for you. Its easier to motivate human beings into action through emotion than through reason. Fear is an emotion and voting is action. Fear has therefore been used all over the world successfully to motivate people to vote one way or the other.
In 2002 the fear of MO/KANU continued rule through project Ouru was successfully used to motivate a majority of Kenyans to vote against Ouru.
In 2013, I do not believe Ourutu managed to get 50% plus but I believe a substantial number of Kenyans were motivated to vote for Ouru/RUTO to protect them from the fear of being incarcerated by ICC
Both the fear used in 2002 and 2013 to motivate people to vote one way or the other are not present in 2013.
While kikuyus are still highly motivated by the fear of losing power and fear of a jaluo being president and retaliating, Kalenjins and Merus/Embus are not as highly motivated by the same factors and are therefore less fearful.
NASA has also found some fear factors this election year. 1) the rising cost of living and fear that it will get worse if tano tena 2) the fear that under ouruto corruption including Unga corruption will continue 3) the fear that the two tribes will continue to dominate kenya, 4) Fear that ouruto want to kill devolution, etc
So, Kenya's politics can be discussed/debated without insisting that the tribe is the only factor or the major factor. People who insist in this are those who feel that when Kenyan politics is described in tribal terms then they have an advantage, the rest are just lazy and accept the tribal argument because it is easier makes one look superior.
In conclusions MOAS assumes that the tribal fears invoked by ICC in 2013 will work in 2017 because the tribal composition of Jubilee has not changed. Our argument is that 2017 is not 2013 and there are new issues which have cropped up. Our other argument is that tribe is not the only factor that can be used emotionally to motivate people to vote. You can use joblessness, hunger, high cost of living, poverty, rampant corruption, tyranny of two tribes, unity, equality, etc. Pundit would not accept all these non tribal factors because it does not conform with his tribal narrative which he has to stick to because that is the only way his MOAS is going to work.
Kichwa. Wanjiku knows nothing about ideology. She knows her man is the lead Chef and thus expect a bigger share of the cooking unlike when another leader from a different tribe is the main chef.
The consolation only comes when Wanjiku has a representative in the Kitchen and thus knows that his man will have something for her .
The "politics of food and who is in the Kitchen" decides who rules Kenya.
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Windy, what we are struggling with here is the role of tribe in our voting behavior. There seems to be a strong correlation between how we vote and what our tribe is. Jubilee damu believe they have an advantage when Kenyans vote tribally because of the theory of tyranny of Kalenjin/Kikuyu numbers and therefore they strongly advocate for this theory. My position is that tribe is a very effective tool to invoke an emotion of fear or pride which in turn motivates people to vote. However, tribe is not the only tool that can be used to invoke emotions such as fear which are known world wide to motivate people to vote in large numbers. Jubilee must rely on tribe because that is the only factor that they have to motivate people to vote for them in 2017 as in 2013. The only problem this time around is that they do not have ICC to instill maximum fear factor in there people to motivate them to the 2013 levels. They can still use fear and pride to motivate the Kalenjin and Kikuyus to vote as a block but its going to be soft and may not penetrate as deep as in 2013. They can also invoke the domination/alpha male theory of the two majority ruling material tribes to evoke their voters emotions to turn out in huge numbers. However, usually the fear factor is more motivating when it comes to voting than mere pride.
On the other hand, in 2013, the opposition had no similar emotive issue as Ouruto had in ICC. This time around the opposition has the emotional issues, of 1) fear of being dominated by Kikuyu/Kalenjin tribes 2) fear of high cost of living going higher and higher under ouruto 3) fear of corruption spiraling out of control under ouruto 4) fear of bei ya unga going up 5) fear of devolution being undermined by Ouruto. These fears have very little to do with tribe and may not have worked in 2013 but now with the ICC cloud lifted, there is a chance that they may work. MOAS is based on the premise that only tribe matters and nothing else. I will not accept that argument because it is not true regardless of the outcome of this election.
It is therefore self serving for Pundit to argue tribe as the only factor and one can say that it is equally self serving for us to argue "other factors", however, if you consider both arguments, you will realize that "other factors" have a better chance this year than in 2013 because mambo ya badilika and "other factors" are now stronger than tribe. The argument that tribe is the only way we vote is no longer sustainable.
What is silly and meaningless is the simplistic crap that "Kenyan politics is all about tribe". What does that mean anyway? NOTHING!!. Explain to me how 1) the 1st Liberation struggle was about tribe 2) how the 2nd liberation was about tribe 3) how the 2002 defeat of Moi/Kanu and project ouru was about tribe, 4) How the referendum for the new katiba was tribal 3) how the 2017 rejection of the failures of ouruto is all about tribe. Stop trivializing and reducing complex Kenyan politics to fit your over stretched ego. Translate to me how those who are complaining about corruption, bei ya unga, unemployment, no access to health care, bad road, corruption etc. are all engaged in tribal politics. You have lied to people for too long. Its ok to support ouru, campaign for him and predict that ouru will win but that does not mean your premise that tribe is the motivating factor of how Kenyans vote is true. When Jomo saw that he was losing the ideological debate to Jaramogi, he made it tribal and that is what you are trying to do. It worked then but it may not work today. It only takes one election like 2002 to destroy your premise and all the juju statistics you call MOAS. Even witchdoctors are right sometimes.
Here goes the useless debate.
I guess if we are going by broad definition of ideology (to include tribalism, clannism, regionalism, etc) then the ours is an ideology-driven politics - where tribal kingpins form temporary alliance for sake of getting power and discard them as soon as they disgree. As for Kichwa believing in Raila on anything else rather than tribalism...that clear is rich! The first test was in 96 when all Luos troops from Ford-K to NDP. The second test of that ideology that Kichwa failed was 98 when NDP merged with KANU - and only few progressive like Orengo then refused - but Kichwa trooped to Baba Moi bosom.If Moi had endorsed Raila - Kichwa right now would be writting long inshas about KANU and why it's the best party in Africa. Then LDP then NARC then ODM then CORD then NASA - I mean it's been a full circle - where all sort of "ideologies" have been mixed and re-mixed.
Kenya politics is purely and nearly totally tribal. Only some 3-5% of kenya can be described non-tribal. Those voting for Raila or Uhuru who are not Kikuiyu or Luo are voting for their tribal leaders indirectly. The maragolis will vote MaDVD through Raila. The coast brigade will be voting for Hassan Johos/Kingis [regional kingpin]. You can go on and on. That is why if today MaDVD wake up and say Uhuru tosha -- his troops will fall in line. If Joho patches his difference with Uhuru - the coast will soften.
The only way to win in Kenya is simple. Assemble the largest tribal coalition. Win the big tribes. Win the small tribes. Win the clans. Through their leaders.
There are issues that Kenyans care about besides the tribe. That is not in dispute. Corruption, the economy, security etc. They just believe their tribesman knows best how to deal with them. Even if he is a major part of the problem. The practical result is they don't care what the other side has to offer.
I think tribalism was not as entrenched as it is today after the 2nd liberation. Even though you could see the nascent outlines then, there was still room for change. Open tribalism was still frowned upon. Those outlines hardened after Kibaki failed to take advantage of the NARC goodwill and slay it once and for all.
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It's get even more ridiculous. Fear.what fear or ICC made Kalenjin oppose 2010 Constitution. What Moas do is simple. This a game of chess or checkers..we watch the moves of Queens n Kings.We assume rightly that the average Joe is pawn that Kings or queen will forward find an issue to convince them to move left or right.We watch the major waves.Ruto quit ODM on sagana...2008...and made a move to Uhuru corner...there was no ICC then...but as keen observer I knew Raila failure to get Ruto something bigger than min was the end of Raila n Ruto. It was made worse when Raila put MaDvd ahead.Whatever was to come as the issue was the EXCUSE. Don't of course the EXCUSEs politician use for issues.Ruto fell out with Raila the day Raila sidestepped Ruto n went to make a deal for himself in only. If Raila had been smart he would have anticipated Ruto reaction. You make a move but consider the moves your opponent will make.Right now I am convinced that jubilee will last coz Uhuru wants it to last..he knows how lethal WSR can get if scorned. It upon him to make GEMA understand that.We watch tribal Kings n Queens.In some studies they call it focus group. If you want to know how the country is...interview the ceos the top dogs...better still watch their moves.
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Again you deliberately misunderstand. People can be persuaded by either reason or emotions to vote. Usually human beings are easier to motivate to vote or to do anything using fear than reason. If you have a cerebral argument and an emotional argument to motivate action, the emotive argument will prevail. In 2010 referendum for the new Katiba there was no "fear" argument made that could be tribalized. However, in 2013 the ICC was used very effectively to bring the Kalenjin and the Kikuyu together. In 2017, you do not have a similar factor. Kikuyus and Kalenjins still have other reasons to vote as a block and they will do so but its nothing like ICC and 2013. On the NASA side, there are more issues which are very emotive and may provide the motivations to tip the scales. While your theory is based on tribe mine is that the side with the most emotive issue wins. I therefore predict that NASA will prevail in a free and fair election. Hayo tuu.
It's get even more ridiculous. Fear.what fear or ICC made Kalenjin oppose 2010 Constitution. What Moas do is simple. This a game of chess or checkers..we watch the moves of Queens n Kings.We assume rightly that the average Joe is pawn that Kings or queen will forward find an issue to convince them to move left or right.We watch the major waves.Ruto quit ODM on sagana...2008...and made a move to Uhuru corner...there was no ICC then...but as keen observer I knew Raila failure to get Ruto something bigger than min was the end of Raila n Ruto. It was made worse when Raila put MaDvd ahead.Whatever was to come as the issue was the EXCUSE. Don't of course the EXCUSEs politician use for issues.Ruto fell out with Raila the day Raila sidestepped Ruto n went to make a deal for himself in only. If Raila had been smart he would have anticipated Ruto reaction. You make a move but consider the moves your opponent will make.Right now I am convinced that jubilee will last coz Uhuru wants it to last..he knows how lethal WSR can get if scorned. It upon him to make GEMA understand that.We watch tribal Kings n Queens.In some studies they call it focus group. If you want to know how the country is...interview the ceos the top dogs...better still watch their moves.
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In short you're trying to say Raila has more issues this time round something you said in 2013 .Sorry there are no issues at this stage...whoever convinced or bribed or threaten tribal or clan or regional leader will win.The voting automatons can save us billions by accepting voting by proxies...like in companies AGM... Where they simply nominate Raila or Ruto to vote for them...whatever the issue or position.We can learn a lot from companies... Voting by proxies should be allowed as a start.Let Raila appear with 2m proxies votes.Uhuru with 5m GEMA votes who have volunteered their votes to him....and like companies we can elect CEO in few minutes
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What I am saying, which is irrefutable, is that in 2013, ICC was a huge factor which emotionally charged and motivated kikuyus and Kalenjins to come out in droves to vote for Ouruto. It is also irrefutable that ICC is not an issue in 2017. Tribe itself will get you votes but it will not get you enough votes to win every single presidential elections regardless of the issues facing the country.
It is also irrefutable that this time around, NASA has issues which are tribe neutral but can equally invoke all kinds of emotions which in turn can motivate people to get out and vote in droves. I understand your tribal argument very well and your attempt to make it universal or a scientific fact through quackery. I am just not buying it like some people are. That seems to make you angry and more arrogant.
In short you're trying to say Raila has more issues this time round something you said in 2013 .Sorry there are no issues at this stage...whoever convinced or bribed or threaten tribal or clan or regional leader will win.The voting automatons can save us billions by accepting voting by proxies...like in companies AGM... Where they simply nominate Raila or Ruto to vote for them...whatever the issue or position.We can learn a lot from companies... Voting by proxies should be allowed as a start.Let Raila appear with 2m proxies votes.Uhuru with 5m GEMA votes who have volunteered their votes to him....and like companies we can elect CEO in few minutes
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2010 Kalenjin were told their land rights would be further eroded by the NLC to the advantage of Kikuyus, Kisiis, etc. While some christians believed trenches would be littered with foetuses once abortion was allowed by the new constitution. There was fear alright.
Again you deliberately misunderstand. People can be persuaded by either reason or emotions to vote. Usually human beings are easier to motivate to vote or to do anything using fear than reason. If you have a cerebral argument and an emotional argument to motivate action, the emotive argument will prevail. In 2010 referendum for the new Katiba there was no "fear" argument made that could be tribalized. However, in 2013 the ICC was used very effectively to bring the Kalenjin and the Kikuyu together. In 2017, you do not have a similar factor. Kikuyus and Kalenjins still have other reasons to vote as a block and they will do so but its nothing like ICC and 2013. On the NASA side, there are more issues which are very emotive and may provide the motivations to tip the scales. While your theory is based on tribe mine is that the side with the most emotive issue wins. I therefore predict that NASA will prevail in a free and fair election. Hayo tuu.
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What I am saying, which is irrefutable, is that in 2013, ICC was a huge factor which emotionally charged and motivated kikuyus and Kalenjins to come out in droves to vote for Ouruto. It is also irrefutable that ICC is not an issue in 2017. Tribe itself will get you votes but it will not get you enough votes to win every single presidential elections regardless of the issues facing the country.
It is also irrefutable that this time around, NASA has issues which are tribe neutral but can equally invoke all kinds of emotions which in turn can motivate people to get out and vote in droves. I understand your tribal argument very well and your attempt to make it universal or a scientific fact through quackery. I am just not buying it like some people are. That seems to make you angry and more arrogant.
In short you're trying to say Raila has more issues this time round something you said in 2013 .Sorry there are no issues at this stage...whoever convinced or bribed or threaten tribal or clan or regional leader will win.The voting automatons can save us billions by accepting voting by proxies...like in companies AGM... Where they simply nominate Raila or Ruto to vote for them...whatever the issue or position.We can learn a lot from companies... Voting by proxies should be allowed as a start.Let Raila appear with 2m proxies votes.Uhuru with 5m GEMA votes who have volunteered their votes to him....and like companies we can elect CEO in few minutes
I told you tribe and issue are different sides of the same coin. You need to get that. Starting point is, WHY did RVGEMA regard ICC a serious issue?
Why?
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Agreed, fear factor was used in 2010 referendum to get NO votes, however, what made people vote YES was not fear but HOPE. In 2013, fear of ICC and their so called "domestic agents", was the gift that kept on giving to ouruto.
2010 Kalenjin were told their land rights would be further eroded by the NLC to the advantage of Kikuyus, Kisiis, etc. While some christians believed trenches would be littered with foetuses once abortion was allowed by the new constitution. There was fear alright.
Again you deliberately misunderstand. People can be persuaded by either reason or emotions to vote. Usually human beings are easier to motivate to vote or to do anything using fear than reason. If you have a cerebral argument and an emotional argument to motivate action, the emotive argument will prevail. In 2010 referendum for the new Katiba there was no "fear" argument made that could be tribalized. However, in 2013 the ICC was used very effectively to bring the Kalenjin and the Kikuyu together. In 2017, you do not have a similar factor. Kikuyus and Kalenjins still have other reasons to vote as a block and they will do so but its nothing like ICC and 2013. On the NASA side, there are more issues which are very emotive and may provide the motivations to tip the scales. While your theory is based on tribe mine is that the side with the most emotive issue wins. I therefore predict that NASA will prevail in a free and fair election. Hayo tuu.
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And I told you that an issue is not tied to tribe like both sides of a coin. An issue can be tied to something else like, religion, regionalism, patriotism, etc. At independence, the issue of freedom was not tied to a particular tribe but was appealing to most Kenyans as Africans. Also, the 2nd liberation was not tied to any tribe. I also believe that the issues NASA is expressing are not tied to any tribe. It is therefore my humble opinion that tribe and issues are not two sides of the same coin (whatever what that means) I also know that it is not in your interest at this time to separate issues from tribe and will do all the gymnastics to make them one and the same. Ourutu can only win if tribe is the only factor.
What I am saying, which is irrefutable, is that in 2013, ICC was a huge factor which emotionally charged and motivated kikuyus and Kalenjins to come out in droves to vote for Ouruto. It is also irrefutable that ICC is not an issue in 2017. Tribe itself will get you votes but it will not get you enough votes to win every single presidential elections regardless of the issues facing the country.
It is also irrefutable that this time around, NASA has issues which are tribe neutral but can equally invoke all kinds of emotions which in turn can motivate people to get out and vote in droves. I understand your tribal argument very well and your attempt to make it universal or a scientific fact through quackery. I am just not buying it like some people are. That seems to make you angry and more arrogant.
In short you're trying to say Raila has more issues this time round something you said in 2013 .Sorry there are no issues at this stage...whoever convinced or bribed or threaten tribal or clan or regional leader will win.The voting automatons can save us billions by accepting voting by proxies...like in companies AGM... Where they simply nominate Raila or Ruto to vote for them...whatever the issue or position.We can learn a lot from companies... Voting by proxies should be allowed as a start.Let Raila appear with 2m proxies votes.Uhuru with 5m GEMA votes who have volunteered their votes to him....and like companies we can elect CEO in few minutes
I told you tribe and issue are different sides of the same coin. You need to get that. Starting point is, WHY did RVGEMA regard ICC a serious issue?
Why?
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And I told you that an issue is not tied to tribe like both sides of a coin. Other than tribe, an issue can be tied to something else like, race, creed, nationalism, religion, regionalism, patriotism, etc. At independence, the issue of freedom was not tied to a particular tribe but was appealing to most Kenyans as Africans and as the black race . Also, the 2nd liberation was not tied to any tribe. I also believe that the issues NASA is expressing are not tied to any tribe. It is therefore my humble opinion that tribe and issues are not two sides of the same coin (whatever what that means) I also know that it is not in your interest at this time to separate issues from tribe and will do all the gymnastics to make them one and the same. Ourutu can only win if tribe is the only factor.
What I am saying, which is irrefutable, is that in 2013, ICC was a huge factor which emotionally charged and motivated kikuyus and Kalenjins to come out in droves to vote for Ouruto. It is also irrefutable that ICC is not an issue in 2017. Tribe itself will get you votes but it will not get you enough votes to win every single presidential elections regardless of the issues facing the country.
It is also irrefutable that this time around, NASA has issues which are tribe neutral but can equally invoke all kinds of emotions which in turn can motivate people to get out and vote in droves. I understand your tribal argument very well and your attempt to make it universal or a scientific fact through quackery. I am just not buying it like some people are. That seems to make you angry and more arrogant.
In short you're trying to say Raila has more issues this time round something you said in 2013 .Sorry there are no issues at this stage...whoever convinced or bribed or threaten tribal or clan or regional leader will win.The voting automatons can save us billions by accepting voting by proxies...like in companies AGM... Where they simply nominate Raila or Ruto to vote for them...whatever the issue or position.We can learn a lot from companies... Voting by proxies should be allowed as a start.Let Raila appear with 2m proxies votes.Uhuru with 5m GEMA votes who have volunteered their votes to him....and like companies we can elect CEO in few minutes
I told you tribe and issue are different sides of the same coin. You need to get that. Starting point is, WHY did RVGEMA regard ICC a serious issue?
Why?
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The issue is defined by politicians. UhuRuto changed the narrative on ICC - it was suppose to be a disadvantage but they played it well. Before that Mau forest eviction & reclamation had been an issue that Ruto had used to drive a wedge btw Kalenjin and ODM.Kibaki made "Raila is dangerous man" the issue that united his coalition in 2007. ODM made "Anti-Kikuyu aka 41-1" the issues.Right now the is no major issue because it's a repeat of 2013 - tribal alliance have been solidified. NASA issues is 40-2 - but they haven't sold it as much as I expected (their campaign is just lethargic) -- and Jubilee issue of course is that they have delivered on their 2013 manifesto. If Raila or Uhuru or Ruto want to change "the issue" - they can invent one - and their tribes men will troop along - with that "issue" as the excuse.
And I told you that an issue is not tied to tribe like both sides of a coin. An issue can be tied to something else like, religion, regionalism, patriotism, etc. At independence, the issue of freedom was not tied to a particular tribe but was appealing to most Kenyans as Africans. Also, the 2nd liberation was not tied to any tribe. I also believe that the issues NASA is expressing are not tied to any tribe. It is therefore my humble opinion that tribe and issues are not two sides of the same coin (whatever what that means) I also know that it is not in your interest at this time to separate issues from tribe and will do all the gymnastics to make them one and the same. Ourutu can only win if tribe is the only factor.
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Ambitho polls last month -- seem Uhuru is doing extremely well in NEP, good in Coast & Western compared to 2013.
(https://scontent.fnbo5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/19553915_1388577704511901_1038413390225156032_n.jpg?oh=8ef18de22ac92a69a11ff8a3a57a2aeb&oe=59C7FB65)
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Waiguru ahead.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Anne-Waiguru-ahead-of-Martha-Karua-in-Kirinyaga-race/1056-4023842-qr0pj5z/index.html
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Nairobi - Sonko Kidero neck to neck but undecided leaning to Sonko - Sakaja leading - Passari too - and Raila too.
http://nairobinews.nation.co.ke/news/sonko-closes-gap-kidero-new-poll/
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Kilifi - Amason Kingi still the king of underdevelopment
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFKdhWyXUAEj9ld.jpg)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFKSTHvXYAAsDCc.jpg:large)
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Presidential race -Kilifi - all indications are Uhuru will get 30% - or about double what he got in 2013.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFKPv2fXcAIxnLu.jpg:large)
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Presidential race -Kilifi - all indications are Uhuru will get 30% - or about double what he got in 2013.
Uhuru had 10.7% in Kilifi.
No idea how Omorlo will spin this. Uhuru's trips and pointmen are working
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-may make small changes -- Kakamega - Senate goes to ODM -everything else will stand the test of time.