FINAL MOTHER OF ALL SPREADSHEETS (MOAS) FOR 2017 ELECTION.

[Omollo]

Raila has never imposed candidates on anybody. In 2013 he almost ran afoul of the sister when he tried to ask her to stay out of the gubernatorial elections. He stayed away and let Oburu Oginga lose. It is Orengo and others who negotiated a seat for Oburu.

The same has been the case this year. In fact in this cycle the only "imposition" has to put down his foot about family political interests. He had long advised his daughter not to run in Kibera. She just wanted a profile to later go for other public jobs.

Ruto has been imposing leaders everywhere and it is a shame that you stand here to deny the obvious. Let us start with some examples that are closer home:

1. Bomet Governor: Ruto is busy trying to impose Joyce Laboso. He was so determined to impose Laboso that he rigged out the other candidates.
2. Baringo Senate: No less a person than you have been all over here telling us how Ruto will make sure Gideon loses. I can't count how many times you have stated that his opponent will lose because of Ruto.
3. Kabogo, Peter Kenneth and the Sonko Alliance: Ruto is accused of rigging elections against Kabogo and Peter Kenneth in his attempts to impose illiterate governors on Nairobi and Kiambu and by that secure his run in 2022. You can deny or even accuse me of smearing his name in this respect but the fact is THAT is what Peter Kenneth, Kabogo and many other Kikuyu leaders say.
 
4. Other places: Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo (being rejected by the people).

Lastly, the reason Ruto is jeered in RV by his own people is his attempts to impose leaders on the people. They figure it out and refuse to play ball. That is one of the reasons I do not take your MOAS seriously.

Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.

This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.

I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad .

[patel]

only gullible people swallow Baghdad bob crap.....the kicker ' I have predicted accurately the last 3 stolen elections'

[RV Pundit]

How many times have opinion poll got it wrong. If they were reliable - I won't have done my own MOAS.
Meru -I believe configuration of sub-tribe of merus will be key factor. I have issue witb Infotrack april poll because they sample about 100 people per county. This time round they've tried to increase the sample 800-1000 per county - hopefully the sampling is stratified - to capture regional/sub-tribe factors - and then of course randomly sampled - aka methodology is an issue.

Now if this does not beat logic, tell me what does!

[patel]

precisely...garbage in garbage out

Raila has never imposed candidates on anybody. In 2013 he almost ran afoul of the sister when he tried to ask her to stay out of the gubernatorial elections. He stayed away and let Oburu Oginga lose. It is Orengo and others who negotiated a seat for Oburu.

The same has been the case this year. In fact in this cycle the only "imposition" has to put down his foot about family political interests. He had long advised his daughter not to run in Kibera. She just wanted a profile to later go for other public jobs.

Ruto has been imposing leaders everywhere and it is a shame that you stand here to deny the obvious. Let us start with some examples that are closer home:

1. Bomet Governor: Ruto is busy trying to impose Joyce Laboso. He was so determined to impose Laboso that he rigged out the other candidates.
2. Baringo Senate: No less a person than you have been all over here telling us how Ruto will make sure Gideon loses. I can't count how many times you have stated that his opponent will lose because of Ruto.
3. Kabogo, Peter Kenneth and the Sonko Alliance: Ruto is accused of rigging elections against Kabogo and Peter Kenneth in his attempts to impose illiterate governors on Nairobi and Kiambu and by that secure his run in 2022. You can deny or even accuse me of smearing his name in this respect but the fact is THAT is what Peter Kenneth, Kabogo and many other Kikuyu leaders say.
 
4. Other places: Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo (being rejected by the people).

Lastly, the reason Ruto is jeered in RV by his own people is his attempts to impose leaders on the people. They figure it out and refuse to play ball. That is one of the reasons I do not take your MOAS seriously.

Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.

This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.

I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad .

[Omollo]

So we can agree to completely ignore the polls. The problem comes when you selectively accept and reject the polls.

precisely...garbage in garbage out

Raila has never imposed candidates on anybody. In 2013 he almost ran afoul of the sister when he tried to ask her to stay out of the gubernatorial elections. He stayed away and let Oburu Oginga lose. It is Orengo and others who negotiated a seat for Oburu.

The same has been the case this year. In fact in this cycle the only "imposition" has to put down his foot about family political interests. He had long advised his daughter not to run in Kibera. She just wanted a profile to later go for other public jobs.

Ruto has been imposing leaders everywhere and it is a shame that you stand here to deny the obvious. Let us start with some examples that are closer home:

1. Bomet Governor: Ruto is busy trying to impose Joyce Laboso. He was so determined to impose Laboso that he rigged out the other candidates.
2. Baringo Senate: No less a person than you have been all over here telling us how Ruto will make sure Gideon loses. I can't count how many times you have stated that his opponent will lose because of Ruto.
3. Kabogo, Peter Kenneth and the Sonko Alliance: Ruto is accused of rigging elections against Kabogo and Peter Kenneth in his attempts to impose illiterate governors on Nairobi and Kiambu and by that secure his run in 2022. You can deny or even accuse me of smearing his name in this respect but the fact is THAT is what Peter Kenneth, Kabogo and many other Kikuyu leaders say.
 
4. Other places: Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo (being rejected by the people).

Lastly, the reason Ruto is jeered in RV by his own people is his attempts to impose leaders on the people. They figure it out and refuse to play ball. That is one of the reasons I do not take your MOAS seriously.

Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.

This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.

I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad .

How many times have opinion poll got it wrong. If they were reliable - I won't have done my own MOAS.
Meru -I believe configuration of sub-tribe of merus will be key factor. I have issue witb Infotrack april poll because they sample about 100 people per county. This time round they've tried to increase the sample 800-1000 per county - hopefully the sampling is stratified - to capture regional/sub-tribe factors - and then of course randomly sampled - aka methodology is an issue.

Now if this does not beat logic, tell me what does!

[RV Pundit]

You've the creative juice to invent stories on the go. You see the objective way to determine interference in nomination by either Ruto or Uhuru or Raila is to examine the results of the main election. We can start from 2013 - and see how many MP seats ODM lost because Raila interference and preference. We see Ruto - a mere MP - an ICC fugitive -with his small URP party - garnering 70Mps in 2013. ODM a big party that could rival KANU at it's apex scored 90 something mps. A mere 20 mps difference!! Kalonzo a whole VP with a tribe as big as Kalenjin - managed only 23 mps

We will find out how much interference and preference - come 9th - my suspicion ODM will continue to erode - I am expecting this time round they will win about  80 mps - I need to check final MOAS for my prediction on that - while UhuRuto Jubilee will score 180 plus seats.

Raila has never imposed candidates on anybody. In 2013 he almost ran afoul of the sister when he tried to ask her to stay out of the gubernatorial elections. He stayed away and let Oburu Oginga lose. It is Orengo and others who negotiated a seat for Oburu.

The same has been the case this year. In fact in this cycle the only "imposition" has to put down his foot about family political interests. He had long advised his daughter not to run in Kibera. She just wanted a profile to later go for other public jobs.

Ruto has been imposing leaders everywhere and it is a shame that you stand here to deny the obvious. Let us start with some examples that are closer home:

1. Bomet Governor: Ruto is busy trying to impose Joyce Laboso. He was so determined to impose Laboso that he rigged out the other candidates.
2. Baringo Senate: No less a person than you have been all over here telling us how Ruto will make sure Gideon loses. I can't count how many times you have stated that his opponent will lose because of Ruto.
3. Kabogo, Peter Kenneth and the Sonko Alliance: Ruto is accused of rigging elections against Kabogo and Peter Kenneth in his attempts to impose illiterate governors on Nairobi and Kiambu and by that secure his run in 2022. You can deny or even accuse me of smearing his name in this respect but the fact is THAT is what Peter Kenneth, Kabogo and many other Kikuyu leaders say.
 
4. Other places: Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo (being rejected by the people).

Lastly, the reason Ruto is jeered in RV by his own people is his attempts to impose leaders on the people. They figure it out and refuse to play ball. That is one of the reasons I do not take your MOAS seriously.

Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.

This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.

I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad .

[RV Pundit]

They are not entirely wrong - so we can't ignore them - but we just cross-reference it with what we know - for instance if opinion poll says Raila will score 80-90% in Luo Nyanza (like they always do) - with 10% undecided - and we know he'll score 99% - we refine that 80 to 99- bila wasi wasi.  Of course often times they get it completely wrong - like in 2013 - info track claimed Raila would win by 53% with Uhuru in 38% -- which was complete bollocks.

So we can agree to completely ignore the polls. The problem comes when you selectively accept and reject the polls.

[RV Pundit]

For reference of how badly ODM did --- compared to URP see here - 96 mps versus 75 mps - 17 senators versus 12. Thatswhat PM Raila did to what used to be kenya biggest party (before Jubilee)  - ODM - after interference, rigging and totally screwing up nomination of 2013. This one [2017] was even more ridiculous - with every candidate employing their own returning officer - and the tribunal have been very busy.

In the meantime be ready to for Jubilee joggernaut - biggest party which will command 200 plus mps - if you had friendly parties.

[RV Pundit]

This is beyond your paygrade - you were good in laying copper wires  for telkom - which is a skill nobody requires anymore - why not upgrade to laying fiber and make money - rather than trying to engage in intellectual discourse you're ill-prepared to participate in.

only gullible people swallow Baghdad bob crap.....the kicker ' I have predicted accurately the last 3 stolen elections'

[patel]

That's funny and rich right there....for a self acclaimed 'intellectual' you have good sense of humor Baghdad bob
let me not stop you with yours psyop crap, this is garbage my fren

This is beyond your paygrade - you were good in laying copper wires  for telkom - which is a skill nobody requires anymore - why not upgrade to laying fiber and make money - rather than trying to engage in intellectual discourse you're ill-prepared to participate in.

only gullible people swallow Baghdad bob crap.....the kicker ' I have predicted accurately the last 3 stolen elections'

[Omollo]

[RV Pundit]

Interesting. Now that is what I like. Objectively disagreeing. Overally I think your confessed love for ODM as party is clouding your judgement. You're also mixing "local" issues with national issues. You need to cross-check how I have done presidential moas - for instance in Kwale & turkana - raila still wins by huge margins - with governor or senate MOAS. What I notice is that for women rep or senate - it will mostly match the presidential moas - except in case like Sifuna of Nairobi who is just hopeless.

1) Vihiga - This one is admittedly very close contest.Looking at the tribal maths of Vihiga - we know maragoli are 60%; tiriki 20%; bunyore (20%). Maragolis have two candidate (Akaranga & Chanzu - split that into two - pro-madvd & pro-akaranga - say 30% each); Bunyore have Otichillo(20%)...so for me tie-breakers are Tirikis - and here I see ANC's Madvd & Khaniri(senator) swaying the Tiriki for Yusuf Chanzu.

2) Kwale - First Murvya unlike Joho or kingi has delivered development - he is another Mutua or Oparanya or Lusaka or Mwangi wa Iria or Prof Chepkwony - secondly as you rightly observe this will battle btw Digo (two strong candidates - Mwakere & Chipera), Duruma (Mvurya) and Kambas. Normally Kwale kambas align with Duruma - however party consideration (wiper) may give Mwakere some votes. Kwale is 4 const; I see Mvurya taking his home - Kinango ( the ever nimble Gonza Rai the mp is big supporter) and Lunga Lunga (thanks to Mwashetani). I don't think Jubilee will score that many votes - so Mvurya win and Raila takes about 65% of it (losing 10% to Jubilee).

3) Outuma. I think what Gov Ojaamong did by rigging Iteso vote so blatantly is injustice the luhyas in Busia will not forgive. Otuoma won the nomination. I don't see any change. Unlike say Lusaka or Oparanya - Outuma has bad reputation for doing nothing  - even in Iteso itself.

4)John Munyes - Oil versus 50B devolved money. Oil which is still a pipe dream versus Turkana that receives 15B and has nothing to show for it. That is why all MPS, most of MCAS and pretty much everyone want Nanok out. Before you consider the regionalism - Turkana South - Turkana Central & Turkana North.
As for Oil - you need to see presidential moas - here they will sort Uhuru by voting largely for Raila (65%) - but Uhuru will improve by 10%.

The places I'd love to revist - is 1) Bungoma - I think Lusaka may give WWW a run for his money 2) West Pokot - Kachapin - may not lose that easily 3) Samburu - I am not sure how strong former TSC boss Gabriel Lengoboini is 3) Marsabit & Isiolo & Tana River & Lamu - are also very close - tight contest - coz of tribal arithmetics.

[Omollo]

Vihiga: The strength of Akaranga is through his PAG church where he is a minister and he is treated a a god.

But Chanzu has a shocker for him: ALL the muslims vote for him almost to a man. That is how he licked Ligale. However PAG and Muslims are few or absent in Bunyore where Ottichilo will reign supreme with Church of God and Bunyore nationalism. Plus the fact that ODM is very popular in Bunyore as Raila is.

May be if I correct myself, the three candidates are balanced. The role of Mudavadi might be significant because he comes from North Maragoli and has a lot of fanatical following there which Akaranga cannot penetrate. But will be enough to help Chanzu? He has been short of money so that will play in to the hands of the two moneyed opponents.

Kwale: Please redo your research on Mvurya. It is his own home area that he will suffer the biggest defeat. He cannot convince the Digos to vote for him. There is no language to use. Much as I hate it, I give the seat to Mwakwere. Mwakwere is impossible to beat now that he for the first time agreed to go along with his people. But Uhuru should start selling his lands in Kwale or get ready to kill and have his guards killed. The biggest grudge against Uhuru is land. His father stole land that had some significance. They used to practice their witchcraft there or something..

You mixed up the Ojaamong and Otuoma. But I can assure you whatever crimes a candidate committed during nominations are usually forgiven in Busia as long as one is loyal to ODM

Interesting. Now that is what I like. Objectively disagreeing. Overally I think your confessed love for ODM as party is clouding your judgement. You're also mixing "local" issues with national issues. You need to cross-check how I have done presidential moas - for instance in Kwale & turkana - raila still wins by huge margins.

1) Vihiga - This one is admittedly very close contest.Looking at the tribal maths of Vihiga - we know maragoli are 60%; tiriki 20%; bunyore (20%). Maragolis have two candidate (Akaranga & Chanzu - split that into two - pro-madvd & pro-akaranga - say 30% each); Bunyore have Otichillo(20%)...so for me tie-breakers are Tirikis - and here I see ANC's Madvd & Khaniri(senator) swaying the Tiriki for Yusuf Chanzu.

2) Kwale - First Murvya unlike Joho or kingi has delivered development - he is another Mutua or Mwangi wa Iria or Prof Chepkwony - secondly as you rightly observe this will battle btw Digo (two strong candidates - Mwakere & Chipera), Duruma (Mvurya) and Kambas. Normally Kwale kambas align with Duruma - however party consideration (wiper) may give Mwakere some votes. Kwale is 4 const; I see Mvurya taking his home - Kinango ( the ever nimble Gonza Rai the mp is big supporter) and Lunga Lunga (thanks to Mwashetani). I don't think Jubilee will score that many votes - so Mvurya win and Raila takes about 65% of it (losing 10% to Jubilee).

3) Outuma. I think what Gov Ojaamong did by rigging Iteso vote so blatantly is injustice the luhyas in Busia will not forgive. Otuoma won the nomination. I don't see any change. Unlike say Lusaka or Oparanya - Outuma has bad reputation for doing nothing  - even in Iteso itself.

4)John Munyes - Oil versus 50B devolved money. Oil which is still a pipe dream versus Turkana that receives 15B and has nothing to show for it. That is why all MPS, most of MCAS and pretty much everyone want Nanok out. Before you consider the regionalism - Turkana South - Turkana Central & Turkana North.
As for Oil - you need to see presidential moas - here they will sort Uhuru by voting largely for Raila (65%) - but Uhuru will improve by 10%.

[RV Pundit]

Vihiga - You didn't talk about Tirikis - who for me will make or break the tie.
Kwale - I think you're not being objective - Mvurya has development record, support of Kinango & lunga lunga.Mwakere his Matuga & Chipera Mswabweni.
Ojaamong - made a fool of luhyas by pulling a kibaki on them - I doubt luhyas will forgive that - if they accept that - it would mean minority Iteso are now majority of Busia - my bet is they will want to set the record straight But they will still vote ODM 95% (according to my MOAS) for presidential seat - I have maintained Uhuru at 5% - although maybe Ababu, Ojiambo and Okemo - may improve that to 10% - but without any evidence I am inclined to accept Uhuru will get 5%.

Vihiga: The strength of Akaranga is through his PAG church where he is a minister and he is treated a a god.

But Chanzu has a shocker for him: ALL the muslims vote for him almost to a man. That is how he licked Ligale. However PAG and Muslims are few or absent in Bunyore where Ottichilo will reign supreme with Church of God and Bunyore nationalism. Plus the fact that ODM is very popular in Bunyore as Raila is.

May be if I correct myself, the three candidates are balanced. The role of Mudavadi might be significant because he comes from North Maragoli and has a lot of fanatical following there which Akaranga cannot penetrate. But will be enough to help Chanzu? He has been short of money so that will play in to the hands of the two moneyed opponents.

Kwale: Please redo your research on Mvurya. It is his own home area that he will suffer the biggest defeat. He cannot convince the Digos to vote for him. There is no language to use. Much as I hate it, I give the seat to Mwakwere. Mwakwere is impossible to beat now that he for the first time agreed to go along with his people. But Uhuru should start selling his lands in Kwale or get ready to kill and have his guards killed. The biggest grudge against Uhuru is land. His father stole land that had some significance. They used to practice their witchcraft there or something..

You mixed up the Ojaamong and Otuoma. But I can assure you whatever crimes a candidate committed during nominations are usually forgiven in Busia as long as one is loyal to ODM

[/quote]

[Nefertiti]

Take it easy on ODM - it was a coalition of expediency like NARC - which later split into URP and NDP - after earlier losing Wiper. There was no ideological glue just like there is none in Jubilee. The latter will be lucky to survive past the Ruto presidency.

For reference of how badly ODM did --- compared to URP see here - 96 mps versus 75 mps - 17 senators versus 12. Thatswhat PM Raila did to what used to be kenya biggest party (before Jubilee)  - ODM - after interference, rigging and totally screwing up nomination of 2013. This one [2017] was even more ridiculous - with every candidate employing their own returning officer - and the tribunal have been very busy.

In the meantime be ready to for Jubilee joggernaut - biggest party which will command 200 plus mps - if you had friendly parties.

[Kichwa]

Take it easy on ODM - it was a coalition of expediency like NARC - which later split into URP and NDP - after earlier losing Wiper. There was no ideological glue just like there is none in Jubilee. The latter will be lucky to survive past the Ruto presidency.

For reference of how badly ODM did --- compared to URP see here - 96 mps versus 75 mps - 17 senators versus 12. Thatswhat PM Raila did to what used to be kenya biggest party (before Jubilee)  - ODM - after interference, rigging and totally screwing up nomination of 2013. This one [2017] was even more ridiculous - with every candidate employing their own returning officer - and the tribunal have been very busy.

In the meantime be ready to for Jubilee joggernaut - biggest party which will command 200 plus mps - if you had friendly parties.

[Nefertiti]

URP was conservative and Ruto marketed family and christian values. Ruto like Moi is vehemently opposed to gay rights and such. They believe in capitalism. As Kalenjin are the biggest in Kamatusa, he compromised federalism for devolution.

ODM and Raila are liberal and socialist. They believe redistribution of wealth and power.

TNA wing of Jubilee of course was the centre... nationalist and capitalist but socially secular / moderate.

Ruto is more ideologically compatible with Uhuru than Raila.

[Kichwa]

You are talking about their differences and plotting them on the Left right ideological spectrum.  I do not believe they came together because of their differences but they must have came together because they agreed on something.  Could it be that they came together because of an ideology that cannot be plotted on the Left-Right ideological spectrum and maybe that is why you have a problem figuring out where they belong on that spectrum.

What brought them together is what students of politics should be trying to make coherent instead of declaring that "our politicians do not have ideology" or that "politics in Kenya is all about tribes".

You do not know how many times I hear educated Kenyans make these statements and everybody  agrees knowingly and cringe as I continue to sip my beer.  You wonder what the struggle for 1st liberation, 2nd liberation, devolution, democracy, freedom of speech, development chap chap, good governance, ant-corruption, lord of poverty, tribalism, etc are all about.

The question is, must ideology be only about some sets of economic and social theories as defined by the Europeans?  Does ideology have to be studied in a university course.  You may disagree with their ideology but that does not mean they do not have one and it does not have to be conservative and

URP was conservative and Ruto marketed family and christian values. Ruto like Moi is vehemently opposed to gay rights and such. They believe in capitalism. As Kalenjin are the biggest in Kamatusa, he compromised federalism for devolution.

ODM and Raila are liberal and socialist. They believe redistribution of wealth and power.

TNA wing of Jubilee of course was the centre... nationalist and capitalist but socially secular / moderate.

Ruto is more ideologically compatible with Uhuru than Raila.

[vooke]

You are talking about their differences and plotting them on the Left right ideological spectrum.  I do not believe they came together because of their differences but they must have came together because they agreed on something.  Could it be that they came together because of an ideology that cannot be plotted on the Left-Right ideological spectrum and maybe that is why you have a problem figuring out where they belong on that spectrum.

What brought them together is what students of politics should be trying to make coherent instead of declaring that "our politicians do not have ideology" or that "politics in Kenya is all about tribes".

You do not know how many times I hear educated Kenyans make these statements and everybody  agrees knowingly and cringe as I continue to sip my beer.  You wonder what the struggle for 1st liberation, 2nd liberation, devolution, democracy, freedom of speech, development chap chap, good governance, ant-corruption, lord of poverty, tribalism, etc are all about.

The question is, must ideology be only about some sets of economic and social theories as defined by the Europeans?  Does ideology have to be studied in a university course.  You may disagree with their ideology but that does not mean they do not have one and it does not have to be conservative and

URP was conservative and Ruto marketed family and christian values. Ruto like Moi is vehemently opposed to gay rights and such. They believe in capitalism. As Kalenjin are the biggest in Kamatusa, he compromised federalism for devolution.

ODM and Raila are liberal and socialist. They believe redistribution of wealth and power.

TNA wing of Jubilee of course was the centre... nationalist and capitalist but socially secular / moderate.

Ruto is more ideologically compatible with Uhuru than Raila.

Good point on ideology,
But what Kenyans mean when they speak of politicians lacking ideology is, either the ideology is not apparent, or it's so simplistic such as just ascending to power for the sake of it, to term it as ideology.

Parties here are simply tools to ascend to power. They don't stand for anything

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Good point on ideology,
But what Kenyans mean when they speak of politicians lacking ideology is, either the ideology is not apparent, or it's so simplistic such as just ascending to power for the sake of it, to term it as ideology.

Parties here are simply tools to ascend to power. They don't stand for anything

I have never been able to tease out a fundamental difference, besides the tribe and biometric information, between Raila and kamwana.  If there is a better explanation than the crude tribalism of our man, for why certain tribes align with certain parties across socioeconomic lines, I am yet to see it.