Have you honestly considered the fact that maybe you know nothing about both ideology and tribal voting.
Let me break it down for you. Its easier to motivate human beings into action through emotion than through reason. Fear is an emotion and voting is action. Fear has therefore been used all over the world successfully to motivate people to vote one way or the other.
In 2002 the fear of MO/KANU continued rule through project Ouru was successfully used to motivate a majority of Kenyans to vote against Ouru.
In 2013, I do not believe Ourutu managed to get 50% plus but I believe a substantial number of Kenyans were motivated to vote for Ouru/RUTO to protect them from the fear of being incarcerated by ICC
Both the fear used in 2002 and 2013 to motivate people to vote one way or the other are not present in 2013.
While kikuyus are still highly motivated by the fear of losing power and fear of a jaluo being president and retaliating, Kalenjins and Merus/Embus are not as highly motivated by the same factors and are therefore less fearful.
NASA has also found some fear factors this election year. 1) the rising cost of living and fear that it will get worse if tano tena 2) the fear that under ouruto corruption including Unga corruption will continue 3) the fear that the two tribes will continue to dominate kenya, 4) Fear that ouruto want to kill devolution, etc
So, Kenya's politics can be discussed/debated without insisting that the tribe is the only factor or the major factor. People who insist in this are those who feel that when Kenyan politics is described in tribal terms then they have an advantage, the rest are just lazy and accept the tribal argument because it is easier makes one look superior.
In conclusions MOAS assumes that the tribal fears invoked by ICC in 2013 will work in 2017 because the tribal composition of Jubilee has not changed. Our argument is that 2017 is not 2013 and there are new issues which have cropped up. Our other argument is that tribe is not the only factor that can be used emotionally to motivate people to vote. You can use joblessness, hunger, high cost of living, poverty, rampant corruption, tyranny of two tribes, unity, equality, etc. Pundit would not accept all these non tribal factors because it does not conform with his tribal narrative which he has to stick to because that is the only way his MOAS is going to work.
Kichwa. Wanjiku knows nothing about ideology. She knows her man is the lead Chef and thus expect a bigger share of the cooking unlike when another leader from a different tribe is the main chef.
The consolation only comes when Wanjiku has a representative in the Kitchen and thus knows that his man will have something for her .
The "politics of food and who is in the Kitchen" decides who rules Kenya.
