Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 18, 2022, 01:02:00 PM
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MOASS had predicted 55% versus 45% with 1% for others - it came down to 48.8% versus 50.5% with less than 1%
In county breakdown - about half are spot on - within acceptable margin of error - which pretty awesome.
The biggest dilemma in this election was Mt Kenya - I nailed it. The exception was Kirinyanga where I expected twin force of Martha-Kibicho would dent some votes - in the end - they lost even in their own polling stations - pretty embarrasing.
I also nailed Gusii. Clearly Kalenjin & Luo were no brainer.
Clearly over-estimated Ruto in-roads in Luhya, Ukambani, Maa and Coast by factor of 15% (10-20%)
I believe something is wrong (massive rigging due to lack of UDA agents) in Mandera, Turkana and Garissa - and pockets of Marsabit, Wajir
and such places.
Quick scan of some areas - shows Ruto scoring 0 - in places like North Horr, Ijara and etc - where unsurprisingly there are no UDA agents - whenever they are agents - he is doing 40-50% of the votes.
Turnout I had estimated 72% turnout - with manual register (This historical Trend with an increasingly outdated register). On ever of election the crossing of names in the manual register was disallowed by court of appeal - this what aided rigging as folks knew who had not voted - and I had expected another 5 percent drop - so the turnout is within what I expected.
Rigging which happened - is basically crude form - where they were no agents in Northern Kenya - or in Luo Nyanza where numbers were carelessly and criminally inflated exceeded the total registered votes.
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the key now is to really see if there was massive rigging in Mt Kenya where jubilee failed to get agents. kirinyaga we should know what went down once kirichi petition is heard. in North Eastern there was massive rigging. I suspect there was some rigging in kiambu I saw something curious in my ward where raila scores 98 votes in two polling stations in same primary school ...there was same pattern in several schools polling streams having identical results for raila
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But why would Jubilee/Azimio fail to get agents in Mt kenya when they had lot of support - it's wasnt the usual hostility. Azimio dropped the ball if they didnt get agents anywhere in Kenya. This was expected as Azimio consist of the usual disorganized ODM - and Jubilee consisted of conmen who were interested in eating Uhuru & gov money.
UDA dropped the ball in NEP - but I guess Ruto thought it was not worthy the cost - considering the number of votes. It also helped that biometric generally reduced the rigging by 50%.
the key now is to really see if there was massive rigging in Mt Kenya where jubilee failed to get agents. kirinyaga we should know what went down once kirichi petition is heard. in North Eastern there was massive rigging. I suspect there was some rigging in kiambu I saw something curious in my ward where raila scores 98 votes in two polling stations in same primary school ...there was same pattern in several schools polling streams having identical results for raila
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yes Akina kanini ate the money in Mt Kenya region. the area was zoned for jubilee. kikuyus failed azimio. if they had delivered some seats and get out to vote they would have increased chances of beating ruto. in luo nyanza there were over 500k voters that didn't vote
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the biggest failure of moas is making assumptions that Martha and gachagua impact was minimal. I believe ruto would have won with 54% if he had kindiki.
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Upuzi....
the biggest failure of moas is making assumptions that Martha and gachagua impact was minimal. I believe ruto would have won with 54% if he had kindiki.
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You're reading your own things. MOAS nailed Mt kenya. Martha had no impact. In fact I got Kirinyanga wrong by giving lot of headway.
MOAS got was only wrong in overstimating the gains Ruto had gained in Luhya, Ukambani, Coast and Maa - they were gains generally - but more muted than I thought.
NEP is rigging.
the biggest failure of moas is making assumptions that Martha and gachagua impact was minimal. I believe ruto would have won with 54% if he had kindiki.
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Yeah the guy even in face of data still insist on this theories. Ni ufala. Martha had NO IMPACT even in Gichugu. It was huge mistake from Raila. Raila was going to get 15% in GEMA he got. He would probably have gone hard on Ukambani - scoring 90% instead of 75% - and that would have made some difference.
Upuzi....
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You're reading your own things. MOAS nailed Mt kenya. Martha had no impact. In fact I got Kirinyanga wrong by giving lot of headway.
MOAS got was only wrong in overstimating the gains Ruto had gained in Luhya, Ukambani, Coast and Maa - they were gains generally - but more muted than I thought.
NEP is rigging.
the biggest failure of moas is making assumptions that Martha and gachagua impact was minimal. I believe ruto would have won with 54% if he had kindiki.
Martha effect was countrywide especially with independents and moderates
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how did moas perform in cosmopolitan constituencies do that analysis
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There was massive rigging in North Eastern. In Garisa one constiuency Ruto got 500 votes . This is a lie.
Why Duale never played his role in North Eastern is something which should be questioned.
Why pretend to be a Ruto supporter and cant do the groundwork.
Reason why Ruto thanked Gachagua is because he invested in agenys. Politics is not only about talking but also pitting in some work . Duale failed UDA in North Eastern and he will want to be given Majority position.
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How do you tell from looking at IEBC? Engage your brains. And stop wishful thinking. There are no independent or moderates that got swayed by Martha.
Martha effect was countrywide especially with independents and moderates
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He is a typical ODMer still believing in his own lies.....
Yeah the guy even in face of data still insist on this theories. Ni ufala. Martha had NO IMPACT even in Gichugu. It was huge mistake from Raila. Raila was going to get 15% in GEMA he got. He would probably have gone hard on Ukambani - scoring 90% instead of 75% - and that would have made some difference.
Upuzi....
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Yeah the guy even in face of data still insist on this theories. Ni ufala. Martha had NO IMPACT even in Gichugu. It was huge mistake from Raila. Raila was going to get 15% in GEMA he got. He would probably have gone hard on Ukambani - scoring 90% instead of 75% - and that would have made some difference.
Upuzi....
he couldn't get 90% in Ukambani because young voters had joined hustler movement. moas failed completely to capture this nuances and assumed the tribal angle. the reason why central voters stayed home was due to their hatred of corruption and gachagua scared them but their own hate of rsila made them choose not to participate. ruto underperformed in Central
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Yes Ijara is terrible. That is Yusuf Hajji little fiefdom. Duale doesnt deserve much except as TOKEN somali and loyal Ruto supporter. The problem with NEP is very serious clannism. It like Somalia. You think it's one tribe but they have very serious clannism. So Duale influence doesnt extend beyond Garissa town. By time you're in Daadab - Farah Malim clan start and they listen to only Maalims. You go to Ijara - the same. You go to Wajir - same issues.
What titled the balance was Finance Minister spending serious money in NFD - that Borana made the huge difference - buying clan leaders and elders to join Azimio/Jubilee.
Maybe Duale once he is powerful again will buy off clan elders and leaders - who then massively rig. Clans from area A cannot go to Area B.
There was massive rigging in North Eastern. In Garisa one constiuency Ruto got 500 votes . This is a lie.
Why Duale never played his role in North Eastern is something which should be questioned.
Why pretend to be a Ruto supporter and cant do the groundwork.
Reason why Ruto thanked Gachagua is because he invested in agenys. Politics is not only about talking but also pitting in some work . Duale failed UDA in North Eastern and he will want to be given Majority position.
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How do you tell from looking at IEBC? Engage your brains. And stop wishful thinking. There are no independent or moderates that got swayed by Martha.
Martha effect was countrywide especially with independents and moderates
there are....I was campaigning for raila and I can tell you in my ward there were moderates who switched camps due to gachsgua was appointed
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unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates
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You're incorrigble. Ruto overpeformed in Mt kenya in face of Uhuru, gov and the machinery - and Mt kenya voted generally above average in turnout. Luos did 73% - Kalenjin 79% - Mt kenya 68% - that is okay for me - as they didnt have a candidate.
Ukambani would have gone hard if Kalonzo was PORK. Hustler revolution was muted - as you can see Ruto underperformed in Luhya, Ukambani & coast despite selling the message of hope.
he couldn't get 90% in Ukambani because young voters had joined hustler movement. moas failed completely to capture this nuances and assumed the tribal angle. the reason why central voters stayed home was due to their hatred of corruption and gachagua scared them but their own hate of rsila made them choose not to participate. ruto underperformed in Central
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How do you tell from looking at IEBC? Engage your brains. And stop wishful thinking. There are no independent or moderates that got swayed by Martha.
Martha effect was countrywide especially with independents and moderates
I think you review why ruto didn't take the presidential vote while doing very well in the other 6 seats
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bottomline moas failed to predict presidential race so it was a useless too. Yule Mzee failed too but his post mortem may be better
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Anecdotal evidence in face of real hard empirical evidence. Dude, you're a classic moron. We are not talking theories...we are starting from IEBC data.
unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates
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I'd dont think so. MOASS predicted Ruto would win. We just missed the margin - and it clearly where (1-2% from massive rigging -1-2% from overstimating Ruto in Luhya/Mijikenda/Maa). Now for InfoTrak and opinion polls except - Mizani & IRS - they have nowhere to hide.
bottomline moas failed to predict presidential race so it was a useless too. Yule Mzee failed too but his post mortem may be better
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Anecdotal evidence in face of real hard empirical evidence. Dude, you're a classic moron. We are not talking theories...we are starting from IEBC data.
unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates
moas is just useless admit..after 15 years of doing this you can't be relied on.
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Anecdotal evidence in face of real hard empirical evidence. Dude, you're a classic moron. We are not talking theories...we are starting from IEBC data.
unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates
moas is just useless admit..after 15 years of doing this you can't be relied on.
missing a forecast in any model by 50% of you counties prediction should make you think twice at how terrible you are. your arrogance is what makes it hard for you to listen. you such an arrogant prick. fuck you and your dimwitted excel shit
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Anecdotal evidence in face of real hard empirical evidence. Dude, you're a classic moron. We are not talking theories...we are starting from IEBC data.
unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates
moas is just useless admit..after 15 years of doing this you can't be relied on.
missing a forecast in any model by 50% of in counties prediction should make you think twice at how terrible you are. your arrogance is what makes it hard for you to listen. you are such an arrogant prick. fuck you and your dimwitted excel shit
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Somethings are beyond your bean counting brain.
missing a forecast in any model by 50% of you counties prediction should make you think twice at how terrible you are. your arrogance is what makes it hard for you to listen. you such an arrogant prick. fuck you and your dimwitted excel shit
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Somethings are beyond your bean counting brain.
missing a forecast in any model by 50% of you counties prediction should make you think twice at how terrible you are. your arrogance is what makes it hard for you to listen. you such an arrogant prick. fuck you and your dimwitted excel shit
at least I am humble and don't attempt to claim to be a Mr know it all. you need to work on your social skills
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You have a point but tell me why would North Eastern vote for Raila and Uhuru when they wanted to reduce their County allocation through BBIs 1 man 1 vote 1 shilling.
Ruto is the one who came to their aid in Senate and through Karua against BBI in courts
Yes Ijara is terrible. That is Yusuf Hajji little fiefdom. Duale doesnt deserve much except as TOKEN somali and loyal Ruto supporter. The problem with NEP is very serious clannism. It like Somalia. You think it's one tribe but they have very serious clannism. So Duale influence doesnt extend beyond Garissa town. By time you're in Daadab - Farah Malim clan start and they listen to only Maalims. You go to Ijara - the same. You go to Wajir - same issues.
What titled the balance was Finance Minister spending serious money in NFD - that Borana made the huge difference - buying clan leaders and elders to join Azimio/Jubilee.
Maybe Duale once he is powerful again will buy off clan elders and leaders - who then massively rig. Clans from area A cannot go to Area B.
There was massive rigging in North Eastern. In Garisa one constiuency Ruto got 500 votes . This is a lie.
Why Duale never played his role in North Eastern is something which should be questioned.
Why pretend to be a Ruto supporter and cant do the groundwork.
Reason why Ruto thanked Gachagua is because he invested in agenys. Politics is not only about talking but also pitting in some work . Duale failed UDA in North Eastern and he will want to be given Majority position.
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I dont lower my thinking levels to please you. Elevate your thinking. I concede very regularly whenever someone makes a good point. Just dont expect me to suffer fools gladly.
at least I am humble and don't attempt to claim to be a Mr know it all. you need to work on your social skills
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Again we see Somalis like we see Asian or Chinese - as one people. They are deeply divided into clans - with their own Kenyattas or Rutos or Odingas - who have huge sway. So all Somalis of Ijara listen to Hajjis. All Garissa Somalis listen to Gen Mohammud (Duale is the inlaw). All the Daabab-Lagdera Somalis - listen to Maalims. That is an example of Garissa. You have three major families with combination of Sheikhs(Islamic teachers) & elders - who made the big call.
So if Maalims tell them to vote the MOON - they will vote the MOON. If the Yusuf Hajjis family go Jubilee they will go Jubilee. If it's UDM they will go there.
So to win there - you need to win the clan elders and leaders. It also makes it very hard to get a leader that can unite them. Duale influence cannot extend beyond Garissa town.
You have a point but tell me why would North Eastern vote for Raila and Uhuru when they wanted to reduce their County allocation through BBIs 1 man 1 vote 1 shilling.
Ruto is the one who came to their aid in Senate and through Karua against BBI in courts
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I dont lower my thinking levels to please you. Elevate your thinking. I concede very regularly whenever someone makes a good point. Just dont expect me to suffer fools gladly.
at least I am humble and don't attempt to claim to be a Mr know it all. you need to work on your social skills
when I get time I will show why assumptions and experience campaigning for raila may be onto something..listening to different ideas is what you suck at
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We are discussing the results as is. Try to understand them from 9th August. You're stuck in old theories. We have the results. We need to understand the results. Why did Ufool lose in Ichwari polling station?
MOAS is my theories reduced to numbers. IEBC is the REALITY. I cannot continue insisting on my theories - I have to accept the REALITY - and try to understand why I missed some - and how I can be better next time.
when I get time I will show why assumptions and experience campaigning for raila may be onto something..listening to different ideas is what you suck at
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I took your model on Tuesday after the counting started and by Wednesday afternoon last week I had a result similar to iebc..with ruto winning but going for runoff because I had used your 1% allocation to others in my assumption..put if I kept it at 0.8 and added the difference to ruto he would have won in my model by 50.8%
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Projecting the results once you've seen a couple of results is NOT THE SAME AS PREDICTING.
MOASS is prediction.
What you were doing was projecting the final count based on the initial results. That you can do.
What you never did was to predict what would happen months to election.
This hard part.
I took your model on Tuesday after the counting started and by Wednesday afternoon last week I had a result similar to iebc..with ruto winning but going for runoff because I had used your 1% allocation to others in my assumption..put if I kept it at 0.8 and added the difference to ruto he would have won in my model by 50.8%
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We are discussing the results as is. Try to understand them from 9th August. You're stuck in old theories. We have the results. We need to understand the results. Why did Ufool lose in Ichwari polling station?
when I get time I will show why assumptions and experience campaigning for raila may be onto something..listening to different ideas is what you suck at
I could tell you that for free. he is hated by his extended family due to land issues. remember kenyatta was living in his maternal grandparents land and only relocated to gatundu once he got power and money. he punished those relative heavily and the locals resent him for that
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Projecting the results once you've seen a couple of results is NOT THE SAME AS PREDICTING.
MOASS is prediction.
What you were doing was projecting the final count based on the initial results.
I took your model on Tuesday after the counting started and by Wednesday afternoon last week I had a result similar to iebc..with ruto winning but going for runoff because I had used your 1% allocation to others in my assumption..put if I kept it at 0.8 and added the difference to ruto he would have won in my model by 50.8%
you are right..I was analyze moas then trying to see why you missed it by such a huge percentage
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Projecting the results once you've seen a couple of results is NOT THE SAME AS PREDICTING.
MOASS is prediction.
What you were doing was projecting the final count based on the initial results.
I took your model on Tuesday after the counting started and by Wednesday afternoon last week I had a result similar to iebc..with ruto winning but going for runoff because I had used your 1% allocation to others in my assumption..put if I kept it at 0.8 and added the difference to ruto he would have won in my model by 50.8%
you are right..I was analyze moas then trying to see why you missed it by such a huge percentage at constituency level...
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I have to agree with you. In 2017 Uhuru agreed for Mandera to form PDR current UDA . He said he had to do that because clan elders said they wantee their own party. He nonetheless got the Presidential votes and Mps from PDR
They formed UDM this time around. Still dont tell me Ruto didnt know this.
Again we see Somalis like we see Asian or Chinese - as one people. They are deeply divided into clans - with their own Kenyattas or Rutos or Odingas - who have huge sway. So all Somalis of Ijara listen to Hajjis. All Garissa Somalis listen to Gen Mohammud (Duale is the inlaw). All the Daabab-Lagdera Somalis - listen to Maalims. That is an example of Garissa. You have three major families with combination of Sheikhs(Islamic teachers) & elders - who made the big call.
So if Maalims tell them to vote the MOON - they will vote the MOON. If the Yusuf Hajjis family go Jubilee they will go Jubilee. If it's UDM they will go there.
So to win there - you need to win the clan elders and leaders. It also makes it very hard to get a leader that can unite them. Duale influence cannot extend beyond Garissa town.
You have a point but tell me why would North Eastern vote for Raila and Uhuru when they wanted to reduce their County allocation through BBIs 1 man 1 vote 1 shilling.
Ruto is the one who came to their aid in Senate and through Karua against BBI in courts
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If I asked you before election - you'd have gotten very violent. Nope you're wrong. Jubilee lost in all polling stations in Mt kenya almost. That was HUGE statement. It has nothing to do with family feuds. It's was huge protest votes on Uhuru & elite behaviour that many found utterly disgusting and revolting.
I could tell you that for free. he is hated by his extended family due to land issues. remember kenyatta was living in his maternal grandparents land and only relocated to gatundu once he got power and money. he punished those relative heavily and the locals resent him for that
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Moas is good if only two factors matter tribe and the candidate birth place...otherwise as voting patterns defy this moas will continue to struggle
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If I asked you before election - you'd have gotten very violent. Nope you're wrong. Jubilee lost in all polling stations in Mt kenya almost. That was HUGE statement. It has nothing to do with family feuds. It's was huge protest votes on Uhuru & elite behaviour that many found utterly disgusting and revolting.
I could tell you that for free. he is hated by his extended family due to land issues. remember kenyatta was living in his maternal grandparents land and only relocated to gatundu once he got power and money. he punished those relative heavily and the locals resent him for that
does it matter as I said before moas predict the obvious but the complex it missed that why the complex areas where hustler rhetoric and tribe doesn't matter you failed in your predictions
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I was bullish on kiambu but it is because I thought turnout would be in the 80s
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I rarely say this... Njamba is a Joke.....ignore him...This is nonsence...
We are discussing the results as is. Try to understand them from 9th August. You're stuck in old theories. We have the results. We need to understand the results. Why did Ufool lose in Ichwari polling station?
when I get time I will show why assumptions and experience campaigning for raila may be onto something..listening to different ideas is what you suck at
I could tell you that for free. he is hated by his extended family due to land issues. remember kenyatta was living in his maternal grandparents land and only relocated to gatundu once he got power and money. he punished those relative heavily and the locals resent him for that
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2013 - Mandera was URP - and Uhuru got 90% of the vote - with crazy turnout. Tha time Ruto had hit jackpot because all Mandera clans elders had agreed to power sharing deal - and had agreed to back URP. No real election happen - JUST massive rigging.
2017 - Clan elders disagreed - Roba & team remained in Jubilee - I think Ruto stuck with his crew - former RV PC Hassan formed PDR - and Uhuru had no option except allow them. Jubilee still won.
2022 - Biggest move was Uhuru appointing current Finance Minister - the 1st Borana-Somali - to such a powerful position - he was dishing position to them - and the Somalis & Boranas clan elders and leaders - naturally trooped to him. He formed UPIA thing. Eventually Ufool seeing he had no play told him to fold up UPIA and join Jubilee. Those like Roba who didnt want to join Jubilee - bought UDM.
So this time round Uhuru & Finance Minister had most of the clan elders and leaders.
And in twist of fate - UDM which Ruto formed in 1990s - went to NEP - and PDR that they formed became UDA.
I have to agree with you. In 2017 Uhuru agreed for Mandera to form PDR current UDA . He said he had to do that because clan elders said they wantee their own party. He nonetheless got the Presidential votes and Mps from PDR
They formed UDM this time around. Still dont tell me Ruto didnt know this.
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Will next analyze Women Rep/Senator/Gov
(http://www.charleshornsby.com/uploads/1/1/4/7/114704363/screenshot-2022-08-17-211506_orig.jpg)
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MOASS had predicted 55% versus 45% with 1% for others - it came down to 48.8% versus 50.5% with less than 1%
In county breakdown - about half are spot on - within acceptable margin of error - which pretty awesome.
The biggest dilemma in this election was Mt Kenya - I nailed it. The exception was Kirinyanga where I expected twin force of Martha-Kibicho would dent some votes - in the end - they lost even in their own polling stations - pretty embarrasing.
I also nailed Gusii. Clearly Kalenjin & Luo were no brainer.
Clearly over-estimated Ruto in-roads in Luhya, Ukambani, Maa and Coast by factor of 15% (10-20%)
I believe something is wrong (massive rigging due to lack of UDA agents) in Mandera, Turkana and Garissa - and pockets of Marsabit, Wajir
and such places.
Quick scan of some areas - shows Ruto scoring 0 - in places like North Horr, Ijara and etc - where unsurprisingly there are no UDA agents - whenever they are agents - he is doing 40-50% of the votes.
Turnout I had estimated 72% turnout - with manual register (This historical Trend with an increasingly outdated register). On ever of election the crossing of names in the manual register was disallowed by court of appeal - this what aided rigging as folks knew who had not voted - and I had expected another 5 percent drop - so the turnout is within what I expected.
Rigging which happened - is basically crude form - where they were no agents in Northern Kenya - or in Luo Nyanza where numbers were carelessly and criminally inflated exceeded the total registered votes.
Very good chart, good presentation skills. Also good to see you do post mortem, Omollo by now would be MIA after giving tall tale reasons like he has been posted to a remote european outpost without internet.
We both got the turnouts wrong by a mile
You beat me in Gussi and Bungoma a good one, I beat you in rest of western and ukambani.
I got it completely wrong in Mlimani, especially Mt. Kenya East.
What went down in Lamu, Baba taking Lamu was an upset although very few votes to have an impact
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Thanks Yule Mzee. You did well in Kakamega and Ukambani. You clearly underrated Ruto in Gusii. I still dont understand how Ruto got just 25% with all the work that Khawale and team did there. The same for Vihiga. Ruto well double the votes from 2017 - but maDVD clearly UNDELIVERED.
Yes Lamu, Kajiado, Tranzoia and Samburu - I would have expected Ruto to win - Raila narrowly won. I believe this impact of System and
Deep State - using Chiefs, relief food and rigging - that gave Raila slight lead - in all these areas that are remote and barren.
Very good chart, good presentation skills. Also good to see you do post mortem, Omollo by now would be MIA after giving tall tale reasons like he has been posted to a remote european outpost without internet.
We both got the turnouts wrong by a mile
You beat me in Gussi and Bungoma a good one, I beat you in rest of western and ukambani.
I got it completely wrong in Mlimani, especially Mt. Kenya East.
What went down in Lamu, Baba taking Lamu was an upset although very few votes to have an impact