Author Topic: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis  (Read 3022 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« on: August 18, 2022, 01:02:00 PM »
MOASS had predicted 55% versus 45% with 1% for others - it came down to 48.8% versus 50.5% with less than 1%

In county breakdown - about half are spot on - within acceptable margin of error - which pretty awesome.

The biggest dilemma in this election was Mt Kenya - I nailed it. The exception was Kirinyanga where I expected twin force of Martha-Kibicho would dent some votes - in the end - they lost even in their own polling stations - pretty embarrasing.

I also nailed Gusii. Clearly Kalenjin & Luo were no brainer.

Clearly over-estimated Ruto in-roads in Luhya, Ukambani, Maa and Coast by factor of 15% (10-20%)

I believe something is wrong (massive rigging due to lack of UDA agents) in Mandera, Turkana and Garissa - and pockets of Marsabit, Wajir
and such places.

Quick scan of some areas - shows Ruto scoring 0 - in places like North Horr, Ijara and etc - where unsurprisingly there are no UDA agents - whenever they are agents - he is doing 40-50% of the votes.

Turnout I had estimated 72% turnout - with manual register (This historical Trend with an increasingly outdated register). On ever of election the crossing of names in the manual register was disallowed by court of appeal - this what aided rigging as folks knew who had not voted - and I had expected another 5 percent drop - so the turnout is within what I expected.

Rigging which happened - is basically crude form - where they were no agents in Northern Kenya - or in Luo Nyanza where numbers were carelessly and criminally inflated exceeded the total registered votes.

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2022, 01:08:53 PM »
the key now is to really see if there was massive rigging in Mt Kenya where jubilee failed to get agents. kirinyaga we should know what went down once kirichi petition is heard. in North Eastern there was massive rigging. I suspect there was some rigging in kiambu I saw something curious in my ward where raila scores 98 votes in two polling stations in same primary school ...there was same pattern in several schools polling streams having identical results for raila

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2022, 01:13:57 PM »
But why would Jubilee/Azimio fail to get agents in Mt kenya when they had lot of support - it's wasnt the usual hostility. Azimio dropped the ball if they didnt get agents anywhere in Kenya. This was expected as Azimio consist of the usual disorganized ODM - and Jubilee consisted of conmen who were interested in eating Uhuru & gov money.

UDA dropped the ball in NEP - but I guess Ruto thought it was not worthy the cost - considering the number of votes. It also helped that biometric generally reduced the rigging by 50%.

the key now is to really see if there was massive rigging in Mt Kenya where jubilee failed to get agents. kirinyaga we should know what went down once kirichi petition is heard. in North Eastern there was massive rigging. I suspect there was some rigging in kiambu I saw something curious in my ward where raila scores 98 votes in two polling stations in same primary school ...there was same pattern in several schools polling streams having identical results for raila

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2022, 01:19:21 PM »
yes Akina kanini ate the money in Mt Kenya region. the area was zoned for jubilee. kikuyus failed azimio. if they had delivered some seats and get out to vote they would have increased chances of beating ruto. in luo nyanza there were over 500k voters that didn't vote

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2022, 01:21:34 PM »
the biggest failure of moas is making assumptions that Martha and gachagua impact was minimal. I believe ruto would have won with 54% if he had kindiki.

Online Nowayhaha

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2022, 01:25:56 PM »

Upuzi....
the biggest failure of moas is making assumptions that Martha and gachagua impact was minimal. I believe ruto would have won with 54% if he had kindiki.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2022, 01:27:26 PM »
You're reading your own things. MOAS nailed Mt kenya. Martha had no impact. In fact I got Kirinyanga wrong by giving lot of headway.

MOAS got was only wrong in overstimating the gains Ruto had gained in Luhya, Ukambani, Coast and Maa - they were gains generally - but more muted than I thought.

NEP is rigging.

the biggest failure of moas is making assumptions that Martha and gachagua impact was minimal. I believe ruto would have won with 54% if he had kindiki.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2022, 01:28:21 PM »
Yeah the guy even in face of data still insist on this theories. Ni ufala. Martha had NO IMPACT even in Gichugu. It was huge mistake from Raila. Raila was going to get 15% in GEMA he got. He would probably have gone hard on Ukambani - scoring 90% instead of 75% - and that would have made some difference.
Upuzi....

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2022, 01:29:06 PM »
You're reading your own things. MOAS nailed Mt kenya. Martha had no impact. In fact I got Kirinyanga wrong by giving lot of headway.

MOAS got was only wrong in overstimating the gains Ruto had gained in Luhya, Ukambani, Coast and Maa - they were gains generally - but more muted than I thought.

NEP is rigging.

the biggest failure of moas is making assumptions that Martha and gachagua impact was minimal. I believe ruto would have won with 54% if he had kindiki.

Martha effect was countrywide especially with independents and moderates

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2022, 01:29:48 PM »
how did moas perform in cosmopolitan constituencies do that analysis

Online Nowayhaha

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2022, 01:29:52 PM »
There was massive rigging in North Eastern. In Garisa one constiuency Ruto got 500 votes . This is a lie.
Why Duale never played his role in North Eastern is something which should be questioned.
Why pretend to be a Ruto supporter and cant do the groundwork.
Reason why Ruto thanked Gachagua is because he invested in agenys. Politics is not only about talking but also pitting in some work . Duale failed UDA in North Eastern and he will want to be given Majority position.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2022, 01:30:35 PM »
How do you tell from looking at IEBC? Engage your brains. And stop wishful thinking. There are no independent or moderates that got swayed by Martha.
Martha effect was countrywide especially with independents and moderates

Online Nowayhaha

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2022, 01:30:48 PM »
He is a typical ODMer still believing in his own lies.....
Yeah the guy even in face of data still insist on this theories. Ni ufala. Martha had NO IMPACT even in Gichugu. It was huge mistake from Raila. Raila was going to get 15% in GEMA he got. He would probably have gone hard on Ukambani - scoring 90% instead of 75% - and that would have made some difference.
Upuzi....

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2022, 01:33:48 PM »
Yeah the guy even in face of data still insist on this theories. Ni ufala. Martha had NO IMPACT even in Gichugu. It was huge mistake from Raila. Raila was going to get 15% in GEMA he got. He would probably have gone hard on Ukambani - scoring 90% instead of 75% - and that would have made some difference.
Upuzi....

he couldn't get 90% in Ukambani because young voters had joined hustler movement. moas failed completely to capture this nuances and assumed the tribal angle. the reason why central voters stayed home was due to their hatred of corruption and gachagua scared them but their own hate of rsila made them choose not to participate. ruto underperformed in Central

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2022, 01:34:42 PM »
Yes Ijara is terrible. That is Yusuf Hajji little fiefdom. Duale doesnt deserve much except as TOKEN somali and loyal Ruto supporter. The problem with NEP is very serious clannism. It like Somalia. You think it's one tribe but they have very serious clannism. So Duale influence doesnt extend beyond Garissa town. By time you're in Daadab - Farah Malim clan start and they listen to only Maalims. You go to Ijara - the same. You go to Wajir - same issues.

What titled the balance was Finance Minister spending serious money in NFD - that Borana made the huge difference - buying clan leaders and elders to  join Azimio/Jubilee.

Maybe Duale once he is powerful again will buy off clan elders and leaders - who then massively rig. Clans from area A cannot go to Area B.

There was massive rigging in North Eastern. In Garisa one constiuency Ruto got 500 votes . This is a lie.
Why Duale never played his role in North Eastern is something which should be questioned.
Why pretend to be a Ruto supporter and cant do the groundwork.
Reason why Ruto thanked Gachagua is because he invested in agenys. Politics is not only about talking but also pitting in some work . Duale failed UDA in North Eastern and he will want to be given Majority position.

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2022, 01:35:43 PM »
How do you tell from looking at IEBC? Engage your brains. And stop wishful thinking. There are no independent or moderates that got swayed by Martha.
Martha effect was countrywide especially with independents and moderates


there are....I was campaigning for raila and I can tell you in my ward there were moderates who switched camps due to gachsgua was appointed

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2022, 01:36:21 PM »
unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2022, 01:37:43 PM »
You're incorrigble. Ruto overpeformed in Mt kenya in face of Uhuru, gov and the machinery - and Mt kenya voted generally above average in turnout. Luos did 73% - Kalenjin 79% - Mt kenya 68% - that is okay for me - as they didnt have a candidate.

Ukambani would have gone hard if Kalonzo was PORK. Hustler revolution was muted - as you can see Ruto underperformed in Luhya, Ukambani & coast despite selling the message of hope.

he couldn't get 90% in Ukambani because young voters had joined hustler movement. moas failed completely to capture this nuances and assumed the tribal angle. the reason why central voters stayed home was due to their hatred of corruption and gachagua scared them but their own hate of rsila made them choose not to participate. ruto underperformed in Central

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2022, 01:38:09 PM »
How do you tell from looking at IEBC? Engage your brains. And stop wishful thinking. There are no independent or moderates that got swayed by Martha.
Martha effect was countrywide especially with independents and moderates
I think you review why ruto didn't take the presidential vote while doing very well in the other 6 seats

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2022, 01:41:09 PM »
bottomline moas failed to predict presidential race so it was a useless too. Yule Mzee failed too but his post mortem may be better