Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis

[RV Pundit]

Anecdotal evidence in face of real hard empirical evidence. Dude, you're a classic moron. We are not talking theories...we are starting from IEBC data.

unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates

[RV Pundit]

I'd dont think so. MOASS predicted Ruto would win. We just missed the margin - and it clearly where (1-2% from massive rigging -1-2% from overstimating Ruto in Luhya/Mijikenda/Maa). Now for InfoTrak and opinion polls except - Mizani & IRS - they have nowhere to hide.

bottomline moas failed to predict presidential race so it was a useless too. Yule Mzee failed too but his post mortem may be better

[KenyanPlato]

Anecdotal evidence in face of real hard empirical evidence. Dude, you're a classic moron. We are not talking theories...we are starting from IEBC data.

unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates

moas is just useless admit..after 15 years of doing this you can't be relied on.

[KenyanPlato]

Anecdotal evidence in face of real hard empirical evidence. Dude, you're a classic moron. We are not talking theories...we are starting from IEBC data.

unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates

moas is just useless admit..after 15 years of doing this you can't be relied on.

missing a forecast in any model by 50% of you counties prediction should make you think twice at how terrible you are. your arrogance is what makes it hard for you to listen. you such an arrogant prick. fuck you and your dimwitted excel shit

[KenyanPlato]

Anecdotal evidence in face of real hard empirical evidence. Dude, you're a classic moron. We are not talking theories...we are starting from IEBC data.

unlike you I go out there and solicit votes for my candidates

moas is just useless admit..after 15 years of doing this you can't be relied on.

missing a forecast in any model by 50% of in counties prediction should make you think twice at how terrible you are. your arrogance is what makes it hard for you to listen. you  are such an arrogant prick. fuck you and your dimwitted excel shit

[RV Pundit]

Somethings are beyond your bean counting brain.

missing a forecast in any model by 50% of you counties prediction should make you think twice at how terrible you are. your arrogance is what makes it hard for you to listen. you such an arrogant prick. fuck you and your dimwitted excel shit

[KenyanPlato]

Somethings are beyond your bean counting brain.

missing a forecast in any model by 50% of you counties prediction should make you think twice at how terrible you are. your arrogance is what makes it hard for you to listen. you such an arrogant prick. fuck you and your dimwitted excel shit

at least I am humble and don't attempt to claim to be a Mr know it all. you need to work on your social skills

[Nowayhaha]

You have a point but tell me why would North Eastern vote for Raila and Uhuru when they wanted to reduce their County allocation through BBIs 1 man 1 vote 1 shilling.
Ruto is the one who came to their aid in Senate and through Karua against BBI in courts

Yes Ijara is terrible. That is Yusuf Hajji little fiefdom. Duale doesnt deserve much except as TOKEN somali and loyal Ruto supporter. The problem with NEP is very serious clannism. It like Somalia. You think it's one tribe but they have very serious clannism. So Duale influence doesnt extend beyond Garissa town. By time you're in Daadab - Farah Malim clan start and they listen to only Maalims. You go to Ijara - the same. You go to Wajir - same issues.

What titled the balance was Finance Minister spending serious money in NFD - that Borana made the huge difference - buying clan leaders and elders to  join Azimio/Jubilee.

Maybe Duale once he is powerful again will buy off clan elders and leaders - who then massively rig. Clans from area A cannot go to Area B.

There was massive rigging in North Eastern. In Garisa one constiuency Ruto got 500 votes . This is a lie.
Why Duale never played his role in North Eastern is something which should be questioned.
Why pretend to be a Ruto supporter and cant do the groundwork.
Reason why Ruto thanked Gachagua is because he invested in agenys. Politics is not only about talking but also pitting in some work . Duale failed UDA in North Eastern and he will want to be given Majority position.

[RV Pundit]

I dont lower my thinking levels to please you. Elevate your thinking. I concede very regularly whenever someone makes a good point. Just dont expect me to suffer fools gladly.

at least I am humble and don't attempt to claim to be a Mr know it all. you need to work on your social skills

[RV Pundit]

Again we see Somalis like we see Asian or Chinese - as one people. They are deeply divided into clans - with their own Kenyattas or Rutos or Odingas - who have huge sway. So all Somalis of Ijara listen to Hajjis.  All Garissa Somalis listen to Gen Mohammud (Duale is the inlaw). All the Daabab-Lagdera Somalis - listen to Maalims. That is an example of Garissa. You have three major families with combination of Sheikhs(Islamic teachers) & elders - who made the big call.

So if Maalims tell them to vote the MOON - they will vote the MOON. If the Yusuf Hajjis family go Jubilee they will go Jubilee. If it's UDM they will go there.

So to win there - you need to win the clan elders and leaders. It also makes it very hard to get a leader that can unite them. Duale influence cannot extend beyond Garissa town.

You have a point but tell me why would North Eastern vote for Raila and Uhuru when they wanted to reduce their County allocation through BBIs 1 man 1 vote 1 shilling.
Ruto is the one who came to their aid in Senate and through Karua against BBI in courts

[KenyanPlato]

I dont lower my thinking levels to please you. Elevate your thinking. I concede very regularly whenever someone makes a good point. Just dont expect me to suffer fools gladly.

at least I am humble and don't attempt to claim to be a Mr know it all. you need to work on your social skills

when I get time I will show why assumptions and experience campaigning for raila may be onto something..listening to different ideas is what you suck at

[RV Pundit]

We are discussing the results as is. Try to understand them from 9th August. You're stuck in old theories. We have the results. We need to understand the results. Why did Ufool lose in Ichwari polling station?

MOAS is my theories reduced to numbers. IEBC is the REALITY. I cannot continue insisting on my theories - I have to accept the REALITY - and try to understand why I missed some - and how I can be better next time.

when I get time I will show why assumptions and experience campaigning for raila may be onto something..listening to different ideas is what you suck at

[KenyanPlato]

I took your model on Tuesday after the counting started and by Wednesday afternoon last week I had a result similar to iebc..with ruto winning but going for runoff because I had used your 1% allocation to others in my assumption..put if I kept it at 0.8 and added the difference to ruto he would have won in my model by 50.8%

[RV Pundit]

Projecting the results once you've seen a couple of results is NOT THE SAME AS PREDICTING.
MOASS is prediction.
What you were doing was projecting the final count based on the initial results. That you can do.
What you never did was to predict what would happen months to election.
This hard part.

I took your model on Tuesday after the counting started and by Wednesday afternoon last week I had a result similar to iebc..with ruto winning but going for runoff because I had used your 1% allocation to others in my assumption..put if I kept it at 0.8 and added the difference to ruto he would have won in my model by 50.8%

[KenyanPlato]

We are discussing the results as is. Try to understand them from 9th August. You're stuck in old theories. We have the results. We need to understand the results. Why did Ufool lose in Ichwari polling station?

when I get time I will show why assumptions and experience campaigning for raila may be onto something..listening to different ideas is what you suck at

I could tell you that for free. he is hated by his extended family due to land issues. remember kenyatta was living in his maternal grandparents land and only relocated to gatundu once he got power and money. he punished those relative heavily and the locals resent him for that

[KenyanPlato]

Projecting the results once you've seen a couple of results is NOT THE SAME AS PREDICTING.
MOASS is prediction.
What you were doing was projecting the final count based on the initial results.

I took your model on Tuesday after the counting started and by Wednesday afternoon last week I had a result similar to iebc..with ruto winning but going for runoff because I had used your 1% allocation to others in my assumption..put if I kept it at 0.8 and added the difference to ruto he would have won in my model by 50.8%

you are right..I was analyze moas then trying to see why you missed it by such a  huge percentage

[KenyanPlato]

Projecting the results once you've seen a couple of results is NOT THE SAME AS PREDICTING.
MOASS is prediction.
What you were doing was projecting the final count based on the initial results.

I took your model on Tuesday after the counting started and by Wednesday afternoon last week I had a result similar to iebc..with ruto winning but going for runoff because I had used your 1% allocation to others in my assumption..put if I kept it at 0.8 and added the difference to ruto he would have won in my model by 50.8%

you are right..I was analyze moas then trying to see why you missed it by such a  huge percentage at constituency level...

[Nowayhaha]

I have to agree with you. In 2017 Uhuru agreed for Mandera to form PDR current UDA . He said he had to do that because clan elders said they wantee their own party. He nonetheless got the Presidential votes and Mps from PDR
They formed UDM this time around. Still dont tell me Ruto didnt know this.

Again we see Somalis like we see Asian or Chinese - as one people. They are deeply divided into clans - with their own Kenyattas or Rutos or Odingas - who have huge sway. So all Somalis of Ijara listen to Hajjis.  All Garissa Somalis listen to Gen Mohammud (Duale is the inlaw). All the Daabab-Lagdera Somalis - listen to Maalims. That is an example of Garissa. You have three major families with combination of Sheikhs(Islamic teachers) & elders - who made the big call.

So if Maalims tell them to vote the MOON - they will vote the MOON. If the Yusuf Hajjis family go Jubilee they will go Jubilee. If it's UDM they will go there.

So to win there - you need to win the clan elders and leaders. It also makes it very hard to get a leader that can unite them. Duale influence cannot extend beyond Garissa town.

You have a point but tell me why would North Eastern vote for Raila and Uhuru when they wanted to reduce their County allocation through BBIs 1 man 1 vote 1 shilling.
Ruto is the one who came to their aid in Senate and through Karua against BBI in courts

[RV Pundit]

If I asked you before election - you'd have gotten very violent. Nope you're wrong. Jubilee lost in all polling stations in Mt kenya almost. That was HUGE statement. It has nothing to do with family feuds. It's was huge protest votes on Uhuru & elite behaviour that many found utterly disgusting and revolting.

I could tell you that for free. he is hated by his extended family due to land issues. remember kenyatta was living in his maternal grandparents land and only relocated to gatundu once he got power and money. he punished those relative heavily and the locals resent him for that

[KenyanPlato]

Moas is good if only two factors matter tribe and the candidate birth place...otherwise as voting patterns defy this moas will continue to struggle