MOASS had predicted 55% versus 45% with 1% for others - it came down to 48.8% versus 50.5% with less than 1%
In county breakdown - about half are spot on - within acceptable margin of error - which pretty awesome.
The biggest dilemma in this election was Mt Kenya - I nailed it. The exception was Kirinyanga where I expected twin force of Martha-Kibicho would dent some votes - in the end - they lost even in their own polling stations - pretty embarrasing.
I also nailed Gusii. Clearly Kalenjin & Luo were no brainer.
Clearly over-estimated Ruto in-roads in Luhya, Ukambani, Maa and Coast by factor of 15% (10-20%)
I believe something is wrong (massive rigging due to lack of UDA agents) in Mandera, Turkana and Garissa - and pockets of Marsabit, Wajir
and such places.
Quick scan of some areas - shows Ruto scoring 0 - in places like North Horr, Ijara and etc - where unsurprisingly there are no UDA agents - whenever they are agents - he is doing 40-50% of the votes.
Turnout I had estimated 72% turnout - with manual register (This historical Trend with an increasingly outdated register). On ever of election the crossing of names in the manual register was disallowed by court of appeal - this what aided rigging as folks knew who had not voted - and I had expected another 5 percent drop - so the turnout is within what I expected.
Rigging which happened - is basically crude form - where they were no agents in Northern Kenya - or in Luo Nyanza where numbers were carelessly and criminally inflated exceeded the total registered votes.
Very good chart, good presentation skills. Also good to see you do post mortem, Omollo by now would be MIA after giving tall tale reasons like he has been posted to a remote european outpost without internet.
We both got the turnouts wrong by a mile
You beat me in Gussi and Bungoma a good one, I beat you in rest of western and ukambani.
I got it completely wrong in Mlimani, especially Mt. Kenya East.
What went down in Lamu, Baba taking Lamu was an upset although very few votes to have an impact
