MOASS had predicted 55% versus 45% with 1% for others - it came down to 48.8% versus 50.5% with less than 1%
In county breakdown - about half are spot on - within acceptable margin of error - which pretty awesome.
The biggest dilemma in this election was Mt Kenya - I nailed it. The exception was Kirinyanga where I expected twin force of Martha-Kibicho would dent some votes - in the end - they lost even in their own polling stations - pretty embarrasing.
I also nailed Gusii. Clearly Kalenjin & Luo were no brainer.
Clearly over-estimated Ruto in-roads in Luhya, Ukambani, Maa and Coast by factor of 15% (10-20%)
I believe something is wrong (massive rigging due to lack of UDA agents) in Mandera, Turkana and Garissa - and pockets of Marsabit, Wajir
and such places.
Quick scan of some areas - shows Ruto scoring 0 - in places like North Horr, Ijara and etc - where unsurprisingly there are no UDA agents - whenever they are agents - he is doing 40-50% of the votes.
Turnout I had estimated 72% turnout - with manual register (This historical Trend with an increasingly outdated register). On ever of election the crossing of names in the manual register was disallowed by court of appeal - this what aided rigging as folks knew who had not voted - and I had expected another 5 percent drop - so the turnout is within what I expected.
Rigging which happened - is basically crude form - where they were no agents in Northern Kenya - or in Luo Nyanza where numbers were carelessly and criminally inflated exceeded the total registered votes.
