Uhuru: I won't go for another term

[Nefertiti]

173 total of MPs, senators, MCAs, aides and nobodies. The Waititu vote few days ago told us a few things about Ruto numbers.

173 MPs held the PG..tuju can keep the shell

[Nefertiti]

Pundit so what was the resolution of this Ruto super-majority? To continue stalking Raila and BBI rallies

[vooke]

Pundit so what was the resolution of this Ruto super-majority? To continue stalking Raila and BBI rallies

To increase judiciary budgetary allocation from 15B to 105B

[RV Pundit]

The 5hrs meeting Robina.. how did you miss it

[RV Pundit]

173 MPs with 37 apologies..look like Tuju run a shell with 10 kikuyu MPs and kutuny .https://newsstand.standardmedia.co.ke/

[Nefertiti]

Those are flashy stats given by Murkomen. When push comes to shove those numbers become ghost. I just gave you an example fee days ago: Waititu impeachment vote. Then CoG elections. Ruto does not control majority MPs.

And then what is their plan? All I hear is platitudes about give jobless youths 5k pm. And judiciary 3.5% of budget. They remain outflanked by the BBI taskforce they don't control. The wazee will move around with Raila schedule and ignore Ruto. Worse will be if they are barred by cops from holding rallies ala Mumias.

In short Ruto strategy is still reaction to Raila.

[RV Pundit]

At least Ruto has a strategy and support of his own - Raila strategy ends or starts with enticing Uhuru to go for a laughable PM that can only bring him ridicule & scorn (already his people seem his as son -of a bia.tch) -position instead of retiring to be a respected former president.

Those are flashy stats given by Murkomen. When push comes to shove those numbers become ghost. I just gave you an example fee days ago: Waititu impeachment vote. Then CoG elections. Ruto does not control majority MPs.

And then what is their plan? All I hear is platitudes about give jobless youths 5k pm. And judiciary 3.5% of budget. They remain outflanked by the BBI taskforce they don't control. The wazee will move around with Raila schedule and ignore Ruto. Worse will be if they are barred by cops from holding rallies ala Mumias.

In short Ruto strategy is still reaction to Raila.

[Nefertiti]

That same old "they are playing Raila". Let see if Ruto imaginary numbers can save Waititu. Isn't it this a fair check - since Ruto control 90% Jubilee he has majority senators. It should be a walk in the park to save his groupie.

At least Ruto has a strategy and support of his own - Raila strategy ends or starts with enticing Uhuru to go for a laughable PM that can only bring him ridicule & scorn (already his people seem his as son -of a bia.tch) -position instead of retiring to be a respected former president.

Those are flashy stats given by Murkomen. When push comes to shove those numbers become ghost. I just gave you an example fee days ago: Waititu impeachment vote. Then CoG elections. Ruto does not control majority MPs.

And then what is their plan? All I hear is platitudes about give jobless youths 5k pm. And judiciary 3.5% of budget. They remain outflanked by the BBI taskforce they don't control. The wazee will move around with Raila schedule and ignore Ruto. Worse will be if they are barred by cops from holding rallies ala Mumias.

In short Ruto strategy is still reaction to Raila.

[Garliv]

Robina,
We agreed to disagree whether Parliamentary system is better for Kenya. Worse, the Coast declaration then introduced Federal government! We need another thread for that.

Second, whereas Gema is advantaged by the current system, Parliamentary System WILL NOT LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD. It will SHIFT advantage to the so called Pastoralist Region. Kalenjins are NATURAL leaders of this group. So why would Gema, in the name of making Uhuru PM, just shift advantage to someone else? Indeed, it's recipe for worse chaos where you have minorities dominating majority.

Do your maths and analysis. You may support Raila but he must be deluded if he thinks Parliamentary System/Federal government is better for his base. It isn't. For one Raila can only be assured of his Luo Nyanza and some part of Western. Check how many MPs are those. The rest is dicey.
Then Federalism comes with regional nationalism aka ethnic enclaves. Luos are probably the second most spread tribe in Kenya after Gema therefore Federalism will hinder that. Then don't forget Gema homeland (larger central) is "small area" given the population and so is Nyanza. The so called "Pastoralists tribes" occupy large swathes of land with relatively low population: and that forms "future lands" for Kenyans to settle and spread. Federalism simply would hinder that: These are some of the reasons that made Jomo/Kenyatta and others reject Parliamentary/Federalism. Very sound reasons.

And you cannot THINK OF KENYA IN ISOLATION OF IT'S ETHNIC DIVERSITY and how they relate or may relate in any system of government. Claiming to care/consider about ONLY KENYA without such issues is simply engaging in abstraction.

If you look carefully you will see especially Kikuyu numbers are dwindling fast. Kikuyu only lose in the short term redeemed by Uhuru 2.0. Kalenjin and Somali are the losers in the medium and long terms. Either way those tribal lenses are very narrow- minded. Think Kenya not Kikuyu. I don't care much for Uhuru but his lagabout is a fair price for a better Kenya.

Ruto killed the Gema upstarts in his backstabbing schemes. Still if Uhuru wanted he could easily promote anyone including Kiunjuri, PK, etc - he does not want to which indicates his intent. Let us say Ruto exacerbated the problem for himself yet Governor Kabogo of Kiambu or Governor PK of Nairobi would not trounce Kenyatta who is the bird in hand. You and Pundit are naive thinking Gema will desert Uhuru for Kiunjuri/Ruto - what precedent do you have for that? Why didn't Kalenjin abandon Moi in 1992 - instead happily extending his 14 years to 24?

Gema are better off with Uhuru 2.0 than nothing - which is what a VP is. You are drawing a false equivalence of PM- vs - President. It is PM vs nothing. Uhuru 2.0 only causes a sour taste in Ruto and Kalenjin because it is their turn at the till. Non-GEMA see Uhuru for parliamentary as a fair trade. I don't think say Duale, Kalonzo or Mudavadi are simply angling for the position of DPM but also a fairer shot for their people. Kiunjuri will be touted as a sell-out who wants to hand over power to an alien like Njonjo did with

[Nefertiti]

Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.

[RV Pundit]

Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.

Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.

Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.

Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.

[RV Pundit]

Garlic is GEMA and he cares about GEMA - just like many GEMA people are not boarding this parliamentary system. Obviously  Kalenjin are seeing Ruto close to having PORK and don't want the system changed now. Maybe later . It's all about selfish (short-term) interests. GEMA and RV interests are aligned for different reasons. Those two coalitions are going to make your dreams about the constitution reforms a pipe .

Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.

[Nefertiti]

And yet Kalenjin will not dump Ruto for trading his short-term goals for their longterm advantage? Gema must be special to hold Uhuru to a higher standard. Do you see my pessimism of Gema backing Ruto over Uhuru about some math most barely grasp? Not happening. Mt Kenya Tangatanga greenhorns are mlolongo products that don't speak for Gema.

Garliv is GEMA and he cares about GEMA - just like many GEMA people are not boarding this parliamentary system. Obviously  Kalenjin are seeing Ruto close to having PORK and don't want the system changed now. Maybe later . It's all about selfish (short-term) interests.

[Garliv]

Robina, when you analyse Kenyan politics you will realize Kalenjin Nation is at the center of either system. Given its numbers as one of the top 4 big tribe in Kenya, the Presidential system is fair and manageable to them. Similarly Parliamentary System would enhance their advantage further. That is why under current system Ruto, a Kalenjin, has an excellent chance to be President. And with Parliamentary system, the Kalenjin would easily adopt and have more advantage than Gema or Luos.
It's good to analyse Kenyan communities and where they seat in the big schemes of things especially the Big Five.

NB: Why would Ruto/Kalenjin seek parliamentary when at the moment they are at the forefront? Why would he antagonise Gema when they are backing him even under Uhuru's boots?

Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.

Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.

Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.

[RV Pundit]

Precisely. Nobody wants any tweaks on the Jubilee coalition that has been winning and stable. If Uhuru badly wants the PM or something to do post 2022 - he can be accommodated within Jubilee.

Robina, when you analyse Kenyan politics you will realize Kalenjin Nation is at the center of either system. Given its numbers as one of the top 4 big tribe in Kenya, the Presidential system is fair and manageable to them. Similarly Parliamentary System would enhance their advantage further. That is why under current system Ruto, a Kalenjin, has an excellent chance to be President. And with Parliamentary system, the Kalenjin would easily adopt and have more advantage than Gema or Luos.
It's good to analyse Kenyan communities and where they seat in the big schemes of things especially the Big Five.

NB: Why would Ruto/Kalenjin seek parliamentary when at the moment they are at the forefront? Why would he antagonise Gema when they are backing him even under Uhuru's boots?

Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.

Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.

Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.

[Garliv]

Most sheeple follow their leader. But also it happens that for a leader to generate critical support he must sell his ideas to those who will sell it. Among latter groups are thinkers and community influencers. If they are hesitant with an idea then the leader may lack necessary support. It's happening to Uhuru. His support team cannot convince people of the merit of what he's doing.

Heri aseme he's supporting Raila/Waiguru ticket but these parliamentary is plainly "selling everyone for him to be PM".

Truly truly check parliamentary numbers and convince me Uhuru is better off! Indeed, Raila can easily screw him since he will not raise enough number of MPs....

And yet Kalenjin will not dump Ruto for trading his short-term goals for their longterm advantage? Gema must be special to hold Uhuru to a higher standard. Do you see my pessimism of Gema backing Ruto over Uhuru about some math most barely grasp? Not happening. Mt Kenya Tangatanga greenhorns are mlolongo products that don't speak for Gema.

Garliv is GEMA and he cares about GEMA - just like many GEMA people are not boarding this parliamentary system. Obviously  Kalenjin are seeing Ruto close to having PORK and don't want the system changed now. Maybe later . It's all about selfish (short-term) interests.

[Nefertiti]

I don't think you get it. The party leader is automatically the PM. MP's don't vote on that. Only change in party leadership changes the PM. If you impeach the PM you go for elections - so it can't be for parochial or corrupt reasons. Donge? Study Israel, UK, Germany, Australia, RSA, name it.

So you see Uhuru only needs to be leader of the registered Handshake coalition. Once he is PM - he can use the power to line up support among those groups you imagine will impeach him. Same as the Handshake now where Ruto is DP with a majority of Jubilee MPs yet can't do anything despite endless matharao.

PM is about accountability - no hiding in State House, explaining and debating publicly and adequately the GoK policies. And separation of power - no assenting/vetoing laws, refusing to swear judges, and abusing deity status to escape scrutiny. In short parliamentary takes away impunity.

PM does not report to the president who is separate head of state - the residual power where mandate rests to avoid vacuum or chaos. All 3 arms of GoK become squarely equal once the state is separated from the Executive.

About influencers and foot soldiers, Ruto's Mt Kenya following is wearing out rapidly. He has zero governors now. 3 or 4 senators - Kihika, Kindiki, Linturi. A place like Kiambu the MCAs firing Waititu and supporting Nyoro indicates Tangatanga lack of influence. Ruto's painstaking clinging onto Uhurutopia or Jubilee unity says alot about his fear of Uhuru influence. Otherwise he would overthrow him in Jubilee with his superior numbers.

As soon as Uhuru 2.0 is formally declared, Ruto will be abandoned heartlessly. Those MPs are unsure about BBI outcome and they are enjoying his handouts. I pity Ruto because he has no control of the wazee. He is at Raila and Uhuru's mercy. There is no magic he can use to beat tried & tested tribalism to beat Uhuru in Mt Kenya. Mlolongo is the biggest blunder of his career.

Most sheeple follow their leader. But also it happens that for a leader to generate critical support he must sell his ideas to those who will sell it. Among latter groups are thinkers and community influencers. If they are hesitant with an idea then the leader may lack necessary support. It's happening to Uhuru. His support team cannot convince people of the merit of what he's doing.

Heri aseme he's supporting Raila/Waiguru ticket but these parliamentary is plainly "selling everyone for him to be PM".

Truly truly check parliamentary numbers and convince me Uhuru is better off! Indeed, Raila can easily screw him since he will not raise enough number of MPs....

[Garliv]

I have always considered ODM support for Parliamentary Federalism system as opportunism. If however you have any ideological and intellectual argument for its support, then kindly avail it.
And how it would actually work better than what we have.

Ruto core constituency - KAMATUSA or pastoralists - is supposed to benefit massively under parliamentary. It defeats the purpose of his argument. They should be jumping at the proposal. Murkomen in Mombasa alluded as much. ODM and her supporters on the other hand have always backed parliamentary federalism. I am in that group. See my point? - I don't know nor care about Garliv's tribe.

Garliv is GEMA. Why won't he be concerned the same way you're about Luo Nation.

Garliv - my question is why you and Ruto supporters are so concerned by Gema welfare. Your concern is suspect and in fact self- serving.

[Nefertiti]

My case for parliamentary federalism is all over this blog. Including the empirical need for regional economic blocks (REBs) and even the National Health Service (NHS) even if transitional. There are synergies and economies of scale to be gained from such REBs. We have seen Mt Kenya counties attempt to do this informally.

No, while all politicians are opportunist, ODM is pretty ideological complete with socialist policies. Maybe only Kanu can boast better credentials. Definitely can't be compared with radarless Jubilee.

I have always considered ODM support for Parliamentary Federalism system as opportunism. If however you have any ideological and intellectual argument for its support, then kindly avail it.
And how it would actually work better than what we have.