Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.

[Nefertiti]

Dear RV Pundit,

I have confirmed that the Chinese questioned the VIABILITY of the SGR and not our debt ratio. Stop spinning to us - that's Waita's job.

[patel]

Ati Waita? That's the most useless guy I have ever seen or listen ...bureeee bure kabisa...you should not even mention his name in this forum.

[Nefertiti]

The Chinese want to control geostrategic ports around the world. It's not all about hard asset value. You don't give up a port fwaa. It's not *KPA* but the security infrastructure at stake. Next you will need to salute the PLA Navy to access the port.

Just laughable attachment to a deadwood

https://www.kpa.co.ke/Pages/Annual-Financial-Reports.aspx

[Nefertiti]

Ati Waita? That's the most useless guy I have ever seen or listen ...bureeee bure kabisa...you should not even mention his name in this forum.

Well he took over Itumbi-Esipisu role competent or not. Pundit should leave the spinning to him.

[MOON Ki]

I believe their is disagreement - because 1) China wants both Kenya and uganda to sign 2) China also want some tough conditions - including collatoral (like KPA- 40% take or pay) -

And why do they want all that?

[MOON Ki]

I have never understood what is the emotional surges about the Chinese wanting say KPA or Naivasha dry port. This is a country where mzungu own big stretches of land he stole after killing the owners.

Some guys grabbed some land after killing the owners.  So what's the big deal about letting some  newcomers also grab something.   Interesting logic. 

And why would Kenyans be sensitive about all the grab-grab, past and future?  Interesting question.

[MOON Ki]

Dear RV Pundit,

I have confirmed that the Chinese questioned the VIABILITY of the SGR and not our debt ratio. Stop spinning to us - that's Waita's job.

Yes, they questioned that when last year GoK rushed to China (just as it has done lately) expecting some easy money.   Apparently they don't have much use  for "railways don't have to make money" arguments.

commercial viability

http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=7441.5;wap2

[RV Pundit]

Robina, of course viability of the rail beyond Nairobi is doubful without Uganda commitment to use it.The next big destination of cargo after Nairobi is Kampala...nearly a third of Mombasa cargo is transit..there is little going to Kisumu or Eldoret.Uganda and Kenya need to both sign.Debt GDP is Kenya internal worry. Chinese will lend if we proof viability, give security and insurance...3.5b dollars is not small change.

[gout]

This is getting twisted how can a deadwood be strategic?? Which security assets - just recently Uhuru was launching some knockdown funny Shujaa.

The strategic port has been in control of peddlers likes of aksha, Joho. Plus, our greedy political thugs are not giving it up fwaa - they are getting an SGR rail and some knock down locomotives. There are limits to which mwafrika political thugs can cede ground to; reason you hear Uhuru starting to talk of half the cost being a grant

The Chinese want to control geostrategic ports around the world. It's not all about hard asset value. You don't give up a port fwaa. It's not *KPA* but the security infrastructure at stake. Next you will need to salute the PLA Navy to access the port.

Just laughable attachment to a deadwood

https://www.kpa.co.ke/Pages/Annual-Financial-Reports.aspx

[gout]

Dragon man is negotiating not killing anyone. We only have to push mwafrika political thugs to renegotiate terms like Uhuru is calling for half the cost to be a grant. The political thugs are ones who are having little to steal once all revenues goes to Chinese loans.

If it comes to worst the mwafrika peasants can chase the dragon man just like mau mau did - there are limits to which the dragon can spit its fire.

I have never understood what is the emotional surges about the Chinese wanting say KPA or Naivasha dry port. This is a country where mzungu own big stretches of land he stole after killing the owners.

Some guys grabbed some land after killing the owners.  So what's the big deal about letting some  newcomers also grab something.   Interesting logic. 

And why would Kenyans be sensitive about all the grab-grab, past and future?  Interesting question.

[Nefertiti]

Good - your earlier story about debt level was spin. The entire SGR has NEGATIVE ROI - numbers don't lie. Your bulk cargo stories don't hold water - cause halooo - math. The bulk cargo for Nairobi or Kampala would show in the numbers - yet even 1A Msa-Nbi the numbers don't add up. So the shrewd Chinese want collateral - to cover their behind - and leave us holding the empty bowl.

Robina, of course viability of the rail beyond Nairobi is doubful without Uganda commitment to use it.The next big destination of cargo after Nairobi is Kampala...nearly a third of Mombasa cargo is transit..there is little going to Kisumu or Eldoret.Uganda and Kenya need to both sign.Debt GDP is Kenya internal worry. Chinese will lend if we proof viability, give security and insurance...3.5b dollars is not small change.

[MOON Ki]

Dragon man is negotiating not killing anyone. We only have to push mwafrika political thugs to renegotiate terms like Uhuru is calling for half the cost to be a grant. The political thugs are ones who are having little to steal once all revenues goes to Chinese loans.

I think you will find that the Brits too "negotiated" for those huge chunks of land, which is why they still have them and why it kicking them off is tricky.

"They aren't killing anybody, so why not?" seems awfully lame.   In any case, today's great robberies do not require violence and probably cannot be executed with violence.   The best tools in the 21st are a pen (to sign on a "negotiated agreement") or a computer (especially for those outside the law).   

[vooke]

Ethiopia is not corrupt. We both got funding from China. And Kenya is doing way better. You can try Nigeria or whichever country. Our new SGR is already amongst the most magnificient rail rides. Tourist love it - more than 2M passengers are using it. It's ever nearly fully booked. The cargo business started last year - it's been what 14 months of operaton - and it already has transported maybe 4-5M tonnes of cargo.....

And yet SGR is yet start doing it's job. SGR is really meant for transport BULK CARGO- not containerized (trucks are competitive there) - but when you're talking 70-80 tonnes of say clinker, iron ores, gypsums, cement and such - even crude oil. And cereals - maize,sugar - etc. You cannot use roads to transport such cargo.

SGR - and all our infrastructure - are SOLID PROJECTS.

SGR has been operational in 1yr - and you want it to repay itself

SGR - Ethiopia has done metro with good ROI, hardly comparable. Also dirt-poor Ethiopia is not a great country to draw comparisons. SGR is unviable so the Chinese have denied Uhuru funding.

Roads - bitumen/murram upcountry; metros esp Nai flyovers like Outer Ring Road - these are great. Roads are cheap and heavily utilized unlike the SGR.

Last-mile - this is haphazard. Ok for centers or village towns but not literal "last-mile" to every peasant with no income to pay.

The roads & last-mile are your usual obfuscation. SGR haiwesmake.

[vooke]

Teething problems. The double handling need to be dealt with by KR becoming total logistic provider. Already 2M passengers enjoy faster and safe travel to Mombasa. Tonnes of cargo have been moved. The road cannot handle the traffic - from Mombasa port going forward. We'd have to spend on the road or the railway or both. The road  that can handle the kind of traffic ten years from now was going to cost 3B dollars. The Rail cost us 3.2B.

The 750B in power sector has raised our electricity access from 12-15% when Moi left to now well into 80% - and Uhuru may well gives us universal electricity access - when we hit 90-95%. That will be huge. After sorting access - we can now start thinking about the price - by again investing in cheaper power - coal - seem only viable option - considering hydro is no good in desert like country like kenya.

We should never argue about solid investment like building roads, railways, ports,  - let argue about investing 20B in Kenya Airways that is burning money or 20B in National Bank- but not on JKIA airport.

There are no teething problems

1. Cost of running SGR is not about to come down unless you explain why
2. There are levies and government subsidies on it yet is is not attracting enough cargo to date

SGR is just a shiny useless toy nobody needed.

[MOON Ki]

Good question.  A place like Japan moves a whole bunch of cargo on its ancient, refurbished narrow-gauge lines.  And they move more of it and faster than on Kenyans on their shiny new toy.   Passengers?   In a place like Kenya, they don't do much for railway revenue. 

[MOON Ki]

The Chinese want to control geostrategic ports around the world. It's not all about hard asset value. You don't give up a port fwaa. It's not *KPA* but the security infrastructure at stake. Next you will need to salute the PLA Navy to access the port.

Exactly.    In a way, I am reminded of the old "Look at all these shiny beads we just got!   And all we had to give in return was tens of thousands of acres of jungle and wild animals!".   

[Nefertiti]

If it was a deadwood the Chinese would not want it as $5B collateral. Plainsense. A port is not a shamba or park my dear.

This is getting twisted how can a deadwood be strategic?? Which security assets - just recently Uhuru was launching some knockdown funny Shujaa.

The strategic port has been in control of peddlers likes of aksha, Joho. Plus, our greedy political thugs are not giving it up fwaa - they are getting an SGR rail and some knock down locomotives. There are limits to which mwafrika political thugs can cede ground to; reason you hear Uhuru starting to talk of half the cost being a grant

The Chinese want to control geostrategic ports around the world. It's not all about hard asset value. You don't give up a port fwaa. It's not *KPA* but the security infrastructure at stake. Next you will need to salute the PLA Navy to access the port.

Just laughable attachment to a deadwood

https://www.kpa.co.ke/Pages/Annual-Financial-Reports.aspx

[Kadudu]

Too much discussion on this SGR issue.
The main thing here is Uhuru and his buddies saw a chance to make billions on kickbacks through this project. It was not thought through properly from day one. That is why the train stations are so far from the town centres. Even the Nairobi-Naivasha stretch is just another crazy idea. Now Kenyans paying 150B Ksh for a railway to nowhere.

[Nefertiti]

Teething problems. The double handling need to be dealt with by KR becoming total logistic provider. Already 2M passengers enjoy faster and safe travel to Mombasa. Tonnes of cargo have been moved. The road cannot handle the traffic - from Mombasa port going forward. We'd have to spend on the road or the railway or both. The road  that can handle the kind of traffic ten years from now was going to cost 3B dollars. The Rail cost us 3.2B.

The 750B in power sector has raised our electricity access from 12-15% when Moi left to now well into 80% - and Uhuru may well gives us universal electricity access - when we hit 90-95%. That will be huge. After sorting access - we can now start thinking about the price - by again investing in cheaper power - coal - seem only viable option - considering hydro is no good in desert like country like kenya.

We should never argue about solid investment like building roads, railways, ports,  - let argue about investing 20B in Kenya Airways that is burning money or 20B in National Bank- but not on JKIA airport.

There are no teething problems

1. Cost of running SGR is not about to come down unless you explain why
2. There are levies and government subsidies on it yet is is not attracting enough cargo to date

SGR is just a shiny useless toy nobody needed.

Been wondering too how a rail has teething issues. Like a machinery. 

[MOON Ki]

1. Cost of running SGR is not about to come down unless you explain why
2. There are levies and government subsidies on it yet is is not attracting enough cargo to date

You left out one:

3. People are being forced to use it.