Author Topic: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.  (Read 21289 times)

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38336
  • Reputation: 1074446
Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« on: April 26, 2019, 06:30:16 PM »
Very sad news. China have refused to fund this. So SGR now terminates in some wasteland in Narok.

Offline RVtitem

  • VIP
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 840
  • Reputation: 1328
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2019, 08:27:54 PM »
Is it Delamare that you call wasteland?

Offline patel

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 3549
  • Reputation: 2110
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2019, 09:16:13 PM »
China man ain't no dummy. He has his eyes and ears on the ground. How viable will this SGR be once American build 8 lanes super highway from Nairobi to kisumu?

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38336
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2019, 09:42:57 PM »
 : :)Yes it's official.Raila who had hoped to capitalize on it as part of handshake is flying back with huge egg on the face.Ruto will complete this

Offline Nefertiti

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 11329
  • Reputation: 26106
  • Shoo Be Doo Be Doo Oop
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2019, 11:05:49 AM »
O thank goodness! We are cringing supplicants for Chinese capital - bowing and scraping cash  - what on earth for?  To build  a stash of vanity projects - trains in the wrong places, failed GMO experiments, voodoo Dams - even weetabix factories.:o Stuff no sane capitalist will touch. God save us from Jubilee waste and pipedreams.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline Nefertiti

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 11329
  • Reputation: 26106
  • Shoo Be Doo Be Doo Oop
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2019, 11:21:56 AM »
If Uhuru and our fake genius Dr Hustler - had an iota of brains - they would go for subway in Nairobi - optimize mobility for the Nbo-Macha-Kajiado-Kiambu metropolis. That can have proper return. Billions wasted in traffic in Nairobi have been quantified by WB, IMF, IBM, etc - numerously.

Simple math - Nairobi GDP x 4/12 hrs folks waste on the roads daily.

It's a hanging fruit - very exciting obvious opportunity - except to the hare-brained Jubilee.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38336
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2019, 12:09:12 PM »
We need to do that - and more - to get to south africa level in 2030 - who have like 30,000kms of railway - while we have like 3,000kms of completely dilapidated rail - we need to invest 10 times - that mean Mombasa to Malaba - Lamu to Lokichogio - Moyale to Namanga - and then in the 5 cities - we need intra-city train.Ethiopia without our tax revenues are doing it.

The same for road infrastructure - we have 18,000 paved roads - we need to get 100,000kms - the same with water - we are nearly getting there in electricity, broadband and etc.

Where will the money come from? I think Dr Ruto knows where to find money. Our gov has so many assets it doesn't need.

We need to sell Safaricom, kengen, KAA, Kenya Pipeline, National Oil and so many other assets - that can easily gives us 10B dollars - enough to fund LAPSET - and we can borrow the rest.We can also sell even Nairobi National Park to Chinese - to build houses. 17Kms of prime land without any animals.

WSR when he get to power - will find the money and bridge our infrastructure deficit. There should be no argument or long debate about basic stuff like roads, railways, power stations, dams, piped water, sewage, broadband, airports,seaports, lake ports and such critical infrastructure.

If Uhuru and our fake genius Dr Hustler - had an iota of brains - they would go for subway in Nairobi - optimize mobility for the Nbo-Macha-Kajiado-Kiambu metropolis. That can have proper return. Billions wasted in traffic in Nairobi have been quantified by WB, IMF, IBM, etc - numerously.

Simple math - Nairobi GDP x 4/12 hrs folks waste on the roads daily.

It's a hanging fruit - very exciting obvious opportunity - except to the hare-brained Jubilee.

Offline Nefertiti

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 11329
  • Reputation: 26106
  • Shoo Be Doo Be Doo Oop
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2019, 12:29:00 PM »
Great pitch - you should be Ruto's speech writer. Or moonlight as ghost author :)

Wake us all up when the SGR breaks even - or manages to sustain itself - when Uhuru doesn't need to parade Kagame and M7 and Mama Ngina to market it. When the Dams materialize to reality. When last-mile peasants stop burning firewood and kerosene. When the incompetent Eugene or Kiunjuri reaps a bagful from Galana-Kulalu.

William Ruto is the Principal Architect and overseer - mtu ya mkono ya Uhuru - of all these Jubilee wastage. There is no miracle that would happen if he won the presidency so he can deliver the roster of wishes you have listed here.


We need to do that - and more - to get to south africa level in 2030 - who have like 30,000kms of railway - while we have like 3,000kms of completely dilapidated rail - we need to invest 10 times - that mean Mombasa to Malaba - Lamu to Lokichogio - Moyale to Namanga - and then in the 5 cities - we need intra-city train.Ethiopia without our tax revenues are doing it.

The same for road infrastructure - we have 18,000 paved roads - we need to get 100,000kms - the same with water - we are nearly getting there in electricity, broadband and etc.

Where will the money come from? I think Dr Ruto knows where to find money. Our gov has so many assets it doesn't need.

We need to sell Safaricom, kengen, KAA, Kenya Pipeline, National Oil and so many other assets - that can easily gives us 10B dollars - enough to fund LAPSET - and we can borrow the rest.We can also sell even Nairobi National Park to Chinese - to build houses. 17Kms of prime land without any animals.

WSR when he get to power - will find the money and bridge our infrastructure deficit. There should be no argument or long debate about basic stuff like roads, railways, power stations, dams, piped water, sewage, broadband, airports,seaports, lake ports and such critical infrastructure.

If Uhuru and our fake genius Dr Hustler - had an iota of brains - they would go for subway in Nairobi - optimize mobility for the Nbo-Macha-Kajiado-Kiambu metropolis. That can have proper return. Billions wasted in traffic in Nairobi have been quantified by WB, IMF, IBM, etc - numerously.

Simple math - Nairobi GDP x 4/12 hrs folks waste on the roads daily.

It's a hanging fruit - very exciting obvious opportunity - except to the hare-brained Jubilee.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38336
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2019, 12:41:19 PM »
Accident
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 02:03:39 PM by MOON Ki »

Offline MOON Ki

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 2667
  • Reputation: 5780
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2019, 02:05:31 PM »
To RV Pundit: Apologies; I accidentally modified and then deleted one of your "posts".  I was in the process of replying to certain bits, as follows.

Quote
Public infrastructure - don't have to break even - SGR will be useful 200yrs from now.


The Kenyan SGR needs to make money because ... there is the little matter of a loan to be repaid.

Quote
Show me profitable railways and every year countries are laying rails. They are not suppose to be profitable.

Make a friend of Google.   :-)

Quote
The  good thing with infrastructure - is once you lay it (bridge the deficit) - you don't have to rebuild it every year- you just maintain it. The British East Africa railway was laid in 1900 - and 118 years - it's still there - we just need to renovate and maintain it.

Indeed.  The 200 years.   Just renovate and maintain.  So, what happened to the bit between Mombasa and Nairobi?   Is it too still there, or did "renovate and maintain" occur to Kenyans just now?
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline Nefertiti

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 11329
  • Reputation: 26106
  • Shoo Be Doo Be Doo Oop
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2019, 02:26:27 PM »
Ha ha MOON Ki. Pundit is his usual bubbly choirboy - pie in the sky. No need for details.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline patel

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 3549
  • Reputation: 2110
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2019, 09:20:51 PM »
That SGR should never have been built. Inter county highways running east to west and south to North would have opened up the country like never before.
Uhuru knew Chinese would not cough up money twice for the same rail plus why would he go against his interest when he is building a dry port in Naivasha? Raila should be able to see through this tu simple simple scheme but I guess 10% of 360 billion can blind any man.

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38336
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2019, 06:48:21 AM »
If sgr doesn't break even Treasury and tax payers will pick the tabs.KR is owned by Treasury.We need to stop thinking short term and start thinking 30 or 50 yes from now.

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38336
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2019, 08:03:46 AM »
Most railways worldwide are not profitable; but they are crucial for mass transportation of goods and people. Old MGR last I heard the Chinese were doing feasibility and design studies for it's renovation.Obviously we dropped the ball at some point but that old railway is still a crucial asset 120yrs later.
To RV Pundit: Apologies; I accidentally modified and then deleted one of your "posts".  I was in the process of replying to certain bits, as follows.

Quote
Public infrastructure - don't have to break even - SGR will be useful 200yrs from now.


The Kenyan SGR needs to make money because ... there is the little matter of a loan to be repaid.

Quote
Show me profitable railways and every year countries are laying rails. They are not suppose to be profitable.

Make a friend of Google.   :-)

Quote
The  good thing with infrastructure - is once you lay it (bridge the deficit) - you don't have to rebuild it every year- you just maintain it. The British East Africa railway was laid in 1900 - and 118 years - it's still there - we just need to renovate and maintain it.

Indeed.  The 200 years.   Just renovate and maintain.  So, what happened to the bit between Mombasa and Nairobi?   Is it too still there, or did "renovate and maintain" occur to Kenyans just now?

Offline Nefertiti

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 11329
  • Reputation: 26106
  • Shoo Be Doo Be Doo Oop
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2019, 09:00:43 AM »
That's unconvincing; investment is not a vague concept - it's math - there are all kinds of metrics - NUMBERS - IRR, NPV, etc. Your emotional appeals don't move the ticker. After all the argument about SGR viability - you now tell us it doesn't need to be viable- cause it will be around for 50 or 100 years. That's by definition a white elephant.

If sgr doesn't break even Treasury and tax payers will pick the tabs.KR is owned by Treasury.We need to stop thinking short term and start thinking 30 or 50 yes from now.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline Dear Mami

  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 1493
  • Reputation: 643
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2019, 09:37:36 AM »
After all the argument about SGR viability - you now tell us it doesn't need to be viable- cause it will be around for 50 or 100 years. That's by definition a white elephant.

This is also what bothers me about Pundit's latest trends. Few years ago, he was swearing about returns on SGR. I feel Pundit has a personal stake in Jubilee, though he's too shy to admit it online. He is not the same guy who was berating screwball Uhuru for making stupid economic decisions not that long ago.

Offline Nefertiti

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 11329
  • Reputation: 26106
  • Shoo Be Doo Be Doo Oop
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2019, 11:17:38 AM »
This is also what bothers me about Pundit's latest trends. Few years ago, he was swearing about returns on SGR. I feel Pundit has a personal stake in Jubilee, though he's too shy to admit it online. He is not the same guy who was berating screwball Uhuru for making stupid economic decisions not that long ago.

Two factors: 1)tribalism - Ruto is Samoei or some such crap 2)Nyayo nostalgia - the Kalenjin generation who missed the Moi windfall when one tribe choked the bureaucracy - can't wait for their turn to feast
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline vooke

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 5985
  • Reputation: 8906
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2019, 12:14:36 PM »
2 Timothy 2:4  No man that warreth entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier.

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38336
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #18 on: April 29, 2019, 08:34:42 AM »
Public investment are long time. You're the same fellows who was berating kibaki for spending 400M dollars on 40km of Thika Road. SGR- Nairobi-Msa - is super viable. Beyond that - we depend on Uganda cargo.
That's unconvincing; investment is not a vague concept - it's math - there are all kinds of metrics - NUMBERS - IRR, NPV, etc. Your emotional appeals don't move the ticker. After all the argument about SGR viability - you now tell us it doesn't need to be viable- cause it will be around for 50 or 100 years. That's by definition a white elephant.

If sgr doesn't break even Treasury and tax payers will pick the tabs.KR is owned by Treasury.We need to stop thinking short term and start thinking 30 or 50 yes from now.

Offline RV Pundit

  • Moderator
  • Enigma
  • *
  • Posts: 38336
  • Reputation: 1074446
Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #19 on: April 29, 2019, 08:38:49 AM »
Teething problems. The double handling need to be dealt with by KR becoming total logistic provider. Already 2M passengers enjoy faster and safe travel to Mombasa. Tonnes of cargo have been moved. The road cannot handle the traffic - from Mombasa port going forward. We'd have to spend on the road or the railway or both. The road  that can handle the kind of traffic ten years from now was going to cost 3B dollars. The Rail cost us 3.2B.

The 750B in power sector has raised our electricity access from 12-15% when Moi left to now well into 80% - and Uhuru may well gives us universal electricity access - when we hit 90-95%. That will be huge. After sorting access - we can now start thinking about the price - by again investing in cheaper power - coal - seem only viable option - considering hydro is no good in desert like country like kenya.

We should never argue about solid investment like building roads, railways, ports,  - let argue about investing 20B in Kenya Airways that is burning money or 20B in National Bank- but not on JKIA airport.