Author Topic: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.  (Read 21340 times)

Offline hk

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #20 on: April 29, 2019, 10:10:33 AM »
Apart from cost, viability etc, the most egregious aspect of SGR is that importers are being forced to use it. The good thing is there's a court case to scrap the mandate. Also importers are being charged 1.5% levy to pay for rail that's more expensive than road. Only jubilee can come up such a dreadful project.

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #21 on: April 29, 2019, 10:31:40 AM »
Apart from cost, viability etc, the most egregious aspect of SGR is that importers are being forced to use it. The good thing is there's a court case to scrap the mandate. Also importers are being charged 1.5% levy to pay for rail that's more expensive than road. Only jubilee can come up such a dreadful project.

Offline hk

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #22 on: April 29, 2019, 10:56:47 AM »
Apart from cost, viability etc, the most egregious aspect of SGR is that importers are being forced to use it. The good thing is there's a court case to scrap the mandate. Also importers are being charged 1.5% levy to pay for rail that's more expensive than road. Only jubilee can come up such a dreadful project.
So basically its not that transport as a whole has grown its only cause of SGR transport sector contribution to economy its now being fully captured. You see now where all those rosy GDP growth numbers are coming from. We don't need mandates and monopolies in the economy. If SGR is so good let it win customers in the marketplace. We can't be paying for it (1.5% levy) then be forced to use it even though there's a cheaper option. Consumers are being triple screwed.

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #23 on: April 29, 2019, 11:14:30 AM »
We should never argue about solid investment like building roads, railways, ports,  -

That must have been the Sri Lankan thinking.  Until they had to hand over their nice, new, solid port plus a huge chunk of their land.   For 99 years.   
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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #24 on: April 29, 2019, 11:21:47 AM »
Yes the more formal the sector get, the better for everyone - gov, kra, etc. Obviously when trucks operate - like Matatus - they become hard to tax, hard to capture, hard to police and generally a mess.

GoK has no option except repay the loan as per conditions - KPA has to guarantee SGR 40% off-take or pay - and obviously RDL will continue to be levied because we need to build a lot of railways.

These are the sacrifices we have to take - so the next generation can have modern infrastructure.  Trucks may appear cheaper - but they are ripping apart roads, causing accidents, pollution and traffic grindlock - and really stifling sectors like  mining - that require railways - to move really heavy cargo. I mean if Tata Chemical/Magadi soda can built their own railway - surely the country can.

So basically its not that transport as a whole has grown its only cause of SGR transport sector contribution to economy its now being fully captured. You see now where all those rosy GDP growth numbers are coming from. We don't need mandates and monopolies in the economy. If SGR is so good let it win customers in the marketplace. We can't be paying for it (1.5% levy) then be forced to use it even though there's a cheaper option. Consumers are being triple screwed.

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #25 on: April 29, 2019, 11:24:02 AM »
What problem with handing over say Lamu port to chinese? It not like Sri lanka new port is now part of China territory. Sri lanka will still own the land and will still ensure chinese pay the taxes and follows the country laws.

In fact if all China want - is 99yrs lease to build and own - let them do it.  They call it BOT - build, operate and transfer. It cheapest way to get infrastructure done.

What is exactly did Sri Lanka loses? They didn't have a port - Chinese built one and now operate it - Sri Lanka economy is the richer.

That must have been the Sri Lankan thinking.  Until they had to hand over their nice, new, solid port plus a huge chunk of their land.   For 99 years.   

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #26 on: April 29, 2019, 11:43:49 AM »
What problem with handing over say Lamu port to chinese? It not like Sri lanka new port is now part of China territory. Sri lanka will still own the land and will still ensure chinese pay the taxes and follows the country laws.

In fact if all China want - is 99yrs lease to build and own - let them do it.  They call it BOT - build, operate and transfer. It cheapest way to get infrastructure done.

What is exactly did Sri Lanka loses? They didn't have a port - Chinese built one and now operate it - Sri Lanka economy is the richer.

The problem?   The initial deal was never about the Chinese grabbing the port, BOT or not.  The Sri Lankans were forced to hand it over when it became clear that they had financially over-extended themselves. 

As to whether that's the cheapest way to get infrastructure, that remains to be seen.   But I don't see many countries cheerfully lining up to handing over infrastructure and huge chunks land for a century. 

What did the Sri Lankans lose?   That's an interesting question.   Should we ask the British to re-colonize us  because they might give us stuff we don't currently have?   
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Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #27 on: April 29, 2019, 11:44:29 AM »
We should never argue about solid investment like building roads, railways, ports,  -

That must have been the Sri Lankan thinking.  Until they had to hand over their nice, new, solid port plus a huge chunk of their land.   For 99 years.

I too find it hard to swallow that argument - that rail, road, port, etc should not be questioned. That's bizarre, especially when the numbers don't add up. The said numbers were fiddled until now finally they own up with such pedestrian arguments. The real reason SGR and the Dams were heavily funded and billed as transformational is obviously for the heavy kickbacks.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #28 on: April 29, 2019, 12:13:36 PM »
The said numbers were fiddled until now finally they own up with such pedestrian arguments. The real reason SGR and the Dams were heavily funded and billed as transformational is obviously for the heavy kickbacks.
3020 2030?  I haven't heard the usual noises in quite some time.   Has all the eating been done on those projects?
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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #29 on: April 29, 2019, 12:20:04 PM »
There are many easy ways to eat money. Like supplying fake gold that Moi & Patnni did or supplying air like Kibaki did in Angloleasing. You just cook fake projects, get funding abroad and eat the money. Nothing on the ground.
 
Now everyone and their mother knows SGR is real - yes Jubilee has eaten 10% here and there - but we have solid infrastructure.

Obviously Jubilee infrastructure projects are being felt - We saw the world fastest electrification - and you can see electricity lights everywhere including in small market centers - and people homes. Jubilee inherited 12,000kms of roads - they've added 6,000 brand new roads - mostly low bitumen - and 4,000 more are under constructions. Those are being felt everywhere in this country.

Of course the signature project is new greenfield railway - SGR - kenya biggest investment - 5B dollars! - that compared to say Ethiopia - is off to flying start.

I too find it hard to swallow that argument - that rail, road, port, etc should not be questioned. That's bizarre, especially when the numbers don't add up. The said numbers were fiddled until now finally they own up with such pedestrian arguments. The real reason SGR and the Dams were heavily funded and billed as transformational is obviously for the heavy kickbacks.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #30 on: April 29, 2019, 12:35:21 PM »
SGR - Ethiopia has done metro with good ROI, hardly comparable. Also dirt-poor Ethiopia is not a great country to draw comparisons. SGR is unviable so the Chinese have denied Uhuru funding.

Roads - bitumen/murram upcountry; metros esp Nai flyovers like Outer Ring Road - these are great. Roads are cheap and heavily utilized unlike the SGR.

Last-mile - this is haphazard. Ok for centers or village towns but not literal "last-mile" to every peasant with no income to pay.

The roads & last-mile are your usual obfuscation. SGR haiwesmake.


There are many easy ways to eat money. Like supplying fake gold that Moi & Patnni did or supplying air like Kibaki did in Angloleasing. You just cook fake projects, get funding abroad and eat the money. Nothing on the ground.
 
Now everyone and their mother knows SGR is real - yes Jubilee has eaten 10% here and there - but we have solid infrastructure.

Obviously Jubilee infrastructure projects are being felt - We saw the world fastest electrification - and you can see electricity lights everywhere including in small market centers - and people homes. Jubilee inherited 12,000kms of roads - they've added 6,000 brand new roads - mostly low bitumen - and 4,000 more are under constructions. Those are being felt everywhere in this country.

Of course the signature project is new greenfield railway - SGR - kenya biggest investment - 5B dollars! - that compared to say Ethiopia - is off to flying start.

I too find it hard to swallow that argument - that rail, road, port, etc should not be questioned. That's bizarre, especially when the numbers don't add up. The said numbers were fiddled until now finally they own up with such pedestrian arguments. The real reason SGR and the Dams were heavily funded and billed as transformational is obviously for the heavy kickbacks.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #31 on: April 29, 2019, 12:49:00 PM »
Ethiopia is not corrupt. We both got funding from China. And Kenya is doing way better. You can try Nigeria or whichever country. Our new SGR is already amongst the most magnificient rail rides. Tourist love it - more than 2M passengers are using it. It's ever nearly fully booked. The cargo business started last year - it's been what 14 months of operaton - and it already has transported maybe 4-5M tonnes of cargo.....

And yet SGR is yet start doing it's job. SGR is really meant for transport BULK CARGO- not containerized (trucks are competitive there) - but when you're talking 70-80 tonnes of say clinker, iron ores, gypsums, cement and such - even crude oil. And cereals - maize,sugar - etc. You cannot use roads to transport such cargo.

SGR - and all our infrastructure - are SOLID PROJECTS.

SGR has been operational in 1yr - and you want it to repay itself :)

SGR - Ethiopia has done metro with good ROI, hardly comparable. Also dirt-poor Ethiopia is not a great country to draw comparisons. SGR is unviable so the Chinese have denied Uhuru funding.

Roads - bitumen/murram upcountry; metros esp Nai flyovers like Outer Ring Road - these are great. Roads are cheap and heavily utilized unlike the SGR.

Last-mile - this is haphazard. Ok for centers or village towns but not literal "last-mile" to every peasant with no income to pay.

The roads & last-mile are your usual obfuscation. SGR haiwesmake.


Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #32 on: April 29, 2019, 01:01:19 PM »
Why has China declined to fund SGR phase 2?

Ethiopia is not corrupt. We both got funding from China. And Kenya is doing way better. You can try Nigeria or whichever country. Our new SGR is already amongst the most magnificient rail rides. Tourist love it - more than 2M passengers are using it. It's ever nearly fully booked. The cargo business started last year - it's been what 14 months of operaton - and it already has transported maybe 4-5M tonnes of cargo.....

And yet SGR is yet start doing it's job. SGR is really meant for transport BULK CARGO- not containerized (trucks are competitive there) - but when you're talking 70-80 tonnes of say clinker, iron ores, gypsums, cement and such - even crude oil. And cereals - maize,sugar - etc. You cannot use roads to transport such cargo.

SGR - and all our infrastructure - are SOLID PROJECTS.

SGR has been operational in 1yr - and you want it to repay itself :)

SGR - Ethiopia has done metro with good ROI, hardly comparable. Also dirt-poor Ethiopia is not a great country to draw comparisons. SGR is unviable so the Chinese have denied Uhuru funding.

Roads - bitumen/murram upcountry; metros esp Nai flyovers like Outer Ring Road - these are great. Roads are cheap and heavily utilized unlike the SGR.

Last-mile - this is haphazard. Ok for centers or village towns but not literal "last-mile" to every peasant with no income to pay.

The roads & last-mile are your usual obfuscation. SGR haiwesmake.

♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Online RV Pundit

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #33 on: April 29, 2019, 01:29:01 PM »
Kenya debt level are crossing the danger levels...60%..to GDP...but I believe their is disagreement - because 1) China wants both Kenya and uganda to sign 2) China also want some tough conditions - including collatoral (like KPA- 40% take or pay) - and yet Kenya basically want half the loan as grants. Museveni of course bailed out claiming corruption - but I think Uganda are also choking in debts - and cannot take 4B loan - that is more than 10% of their GDP.

I believe both parties are buying time. There is no hurry. Phase 2A is not complete - there still the need to construct the dry port and finish up unfinished sections - so 2019 is pretty much covered.

By next year with GDP at 100B - we may be able to take more debts -- and we certainly will complete this.

Why has China declined to fund SGR phase 2?

Offline Kadudu

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #34 on: April 29, 2019, 03:42:24 PM »
Why is it that the Chinaman cannot see this fact or is it fiction?

Kenya debt level are crossing the danger levels...60%..to GDP...but I believe their is disagreement - because 1) China wants both Kenya and uganda to sign 2) China also want some tough conditions - including collatoral (like KPA- 40% take or pay) - and yet Kenya basically want half the loan as grants. Museveni of course bailed out claiming corruption - but I think Uganda are also choking in debts - and cannot take 4B loan - that is more than 10% of their GDP.

I believe both parties are buying time. There is no hurry. Phase 2A is not complete - there still the need to construct the dry port and finish up unfinished sections - so 2019 is pretty much covered.

By next year with GDP at 100B - we may be able to take more debts -- and we certainly will complete this.

Why has China declined to fund SGR phase 2?

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #35 on: April 29, 2019, 04:06:02 PM »
The economy will be rebased for the upteenth time under Jubilee; -and bum! 100B

Why is it that the Chinaman cannot see this fact or is it fiction?

Kenya debt level are crossing the danger levels...60%..to GDP...but I believe their is disagreement - because 1) China wants both Kenya and uganda to sign 2) China also want some tough conditions - including collatoral (like KPA- 40% take or pay) - and yet Kenya basically want half the loan as grants. Museveni of course bailed out claiming corruption - but I think Uganda are also choking in debts - and cannot take 4B loan - that is more than 10% of their GDP.

I believe both parties are buying time. There is no hurry. Phase 2A is not complete - there still the need to construct the dry port and finish up unfinished sections - so 2019 is pretty much covered.

By next year with GDP at 100B - we may be able to take more debts -- and we certainly will complete this.

Why has China declined to fund SGR phase 2?
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Online RV Pundit

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #36 on: April 29, 2019, 06:18:14 PM »
China man is smart. He is willing to give us secured loan. If we don't repay - they take some asset. I think we should wait for another 2-3yrs and hopefully economy will be bigger - and debt to gdp ratio will be good again to borrow.
Why is it that the Chinaman cannot see this fact or is it fiction?

Offline gout

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #37 on: April 29, 2019, 08:13:38 PM »
I have never understood what is the emotional surges about the Chinese wanting say KPA or Naivasha dry port. This is a country where mzungu own big stretches of land he stole after killing the owners.

Northland Rangelands Trust owns how much land sijui Lewa Downs - have they undertaken any infrastructure development in that wild NEP???
Invalid Tweet ID
Illiterate Muhindi owns all the manaufacturing across Kenya and we keep yapping about a deadwood KPA?? Somali illegal control even hawking and it is a


20% of the NSE listed companies have always been in the hands of foreign investors??
Quote
The sell-off pulled down cumulative foreign investor holding in the listed firms to 19.44 per cent from 20.17 per cent in 2017. The current shareholding is the lowest since 2011 when their combined stake was 19.44 per cent.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Foreign-investors-stake-at-NSE-hits-a-7-year-low/4259442-4967124-ssx77rz/index.html

Chinese may turn around this dead wood KPA now that it is only for tribal appointment balancing maths.
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one ~ Thomas Paine

Online RV Pundit

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #38 on: April 29, 2019, 08:17:57 PM »
Well said. They have bought western anti-chinese propaganda hook, line and sink. the same western nations are also choking in chinese debts.
I have never understood what is the emotional surges about the Chinese wanting say KPA or Naivasha dry port. This is a country where mzungu own big stretches of land he stole after killing the owners.

Northland Rangelands Trust owns how much land sijui Lewa Downs - have they undertaken any infrastructure development in that wild NEP???
Invalid Tweet ID
Illiterate Muhindi owns all the manaufacturing across Kenya and we keep yapping about a deadwood KPA?? Somali illegal control even hawking and it is a


20% of the NSE listed companies have always been in the hands of foreign investors??
Quote
The sell-off pulled down cumulative foreign investor holding in the listed firms to 19.44 per cent from 20.17 per cent in 2017. The current shareholding is the lowest since 2011 when their combined stake was 19.44 per cent.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Foreign-investors-stake-at-NSE-hits-a-7-year-low/4259442-4967124-ssx77rz/index.html

Chinese may turn around this dead wood KPA now that it is only for tribal appointment balancing maths.


Offline gout

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Re: Look like SGR to Kisumu & malaba - aint happenning soon.
« Reply #39 on: April 29, 2019, 09:06:20 PM »
Just laughable attachment to a deadwood

Quote

https://www.kpa.co.ke/Pages/Annual-Financial-Reports.aspx
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one ~ Thomas Paine