It’s time to restructure the presidency, it’s the cause of our problems By RAO

[RV Pundit]

That too is genius. Raila think he can over-leverage the handshake to make it MOU with constitutional reform as an imperative. That is not part of the deal. His deal with Uhuru is personal and should be kept that way - otherwise he'll eat Ruto lunch (50-50 deal). Ruto will want to keep it to just two guys having tea and shaking hands. Ruto team are going to watch Raila and will only concede to Raila getting to gov as a foreign envoy for South Sudan or such outpost.

In short Ruto job btw now and 2022 is to make sure Uhuru keep his personal project personal. Right now two strangers have met and appointed 14 strangers. Without any law or executive order or without any gazette notice. That is some genius. The next thing is to ask the pesky and bored Americans & Britons to finance the Council of Elders..so they can go around "preaching peace".
 

The hustler's acolytes are not buying the genius.

[Kichwa]

Pundit.  You are putting a brave face but you are not fooling me.  You never saw this coming. Lets make this tribal and dirty.  Kikuyus owed luos the Kenyattaa presidency, the Kibaki tosha and also the 2007 kibaki second term which was stolen. Kalenjins should therefore stand on line for Kikuyu to pay their earlier political debts before crying that Ouru owes them.  Ouru cannot walk out of the handshake so easily because it is really not up to him alone. Just because a few Mt. Kenya Mps that Ruto paid are saying that the entire Mt. Kenya is behind Ruto should not fool you.  I do not know if Raila will run or not in 2022 but if the elections are free and fair, the Mt. Kenya vote would be split once Ouru is not on ballot and Ruto will lose. Ruto peaked too early and I can only see him loose ground as time goes by.  Ruto should make sure Ouru does not endorse the referendum because if he does, then Ruto will have to campaign against ouru and that would be like walking on a rope. Ruto needs Ouru but Ouru does not need him. Ouru on the other hand needs Raila to finish his term and have a shot at a legacy. Ouru must move away from Ruto for the "greater good" of Kenya to even have  a semblance of a legacy.

That too is genius. Raila think he can over-leverage the handshake to make it MOU with constitutional reform as an imperative. That is not part of the deal. His deal with Uhuru is personal and should be kept that way - otherwise he'll eat Ruto lunch (50-50 deal). Ruto will want to keep it to just two guys having tea and shaking hands. Ruto team are going to watch Raila and will only concede to Raila getting to gov as a foreign envoy for South Sudan or such outpost.

In short Ruto job btw now and 2022 is to make sure Uhuru keep his personal project personal. Right now two strangers have met and appointed 14 strangers. Without any law or executive order or without any gazette notice. That is some genius. The next thing is to ask the pesky and bored Americans & Britons to finance the Council of Elders..so they can go around "preaching peace".
 

The hustler's acolytes are not buying the genius.

[Nefertiti]

Raila meets the Nairobi Business Community
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001280100/raila-extends-olive-branch-to-nairobi-business-group

[Nefertiti]

Mudavadi supports push for changing laws
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001280068/mudavadi-supports-push-for-changing-laws

[RV Pundit]

That is all good - however everytime Luos have attempted an alliance with GEMA - it never last enough to be consummated - you can see how Jaramogi & Kenyatta fought barely a year into 1964 - and by 66 it was full scale war. Then Moi comes and clock 12yrs - and eventually become PORK - and keep GEMA for 10yrs before they decided they wanted to go for it. GEMA+Luos attempt another short-lived alliance in 90s in FORD and that never lasted 1yr - and it was dead. Then there was various attempt through 90s till 2002 when Moi picked Uhuru - and Raila had to pick Kibaki. And the before we could say NARC - there was full blown war - and by 2007 it was a civil war. And comes UhuRuto - and they've clocked 6 yrs working mostly like co-joined twins.Why would someone sane like GEMA want to destroy such a relationship? For Raila . I mean it won't even last this year before Raila get tired being subservient to GEMA . He is really trying to control his impluses and has bend backward Uhuru is lost for orifices!

I don't see Uhuru allowing referendum. All the noise about referendum have coming from Raila and his NASA groupies.

Why would Uhuru go for something that he has He is going to be powerful in Ruto gov and doesn't need to start a war with Ruto & RV to get what he wants - I mean GEMA would be so foolish to split jubilee and end up having to choice btw Raila and Ruto . I mean even if Uhuru was to be ambitious and go for executive PORK from parliamentary systems - what gurantee does he have that GEMA would have more MPS than say Ruto or Raila .

The smart thing for Uhuru is to go for Jubilee Supreme Leader - and appoint a trustworthy GEMA DPORK to deputize Ruto. That way he secures his personal (supreme leader) and community interest(DPORK who takes over Uhuru).  The stupid thing to go to war with Ruto - with Raila as his right hand man That would win him darwin award!

Pundit.  You are putting a brave face but you are not fooling me.  You never saw this coming. Lets make this tribal and dirty.  Kikuyus owed luos the Kenyattaa presidency, the Kibaki tosha and also the 2007 kibaki second term which was stolen. Kalenjins should therefore stand on line for Kikuyu to pay their earlier political debts before crying that Ouru owes them.  Ouru cannot walk out of the handshake so easily because it is really not up to him alone. Just because a few Mt. Kenya Mps that Ruto paid are saying that the entire Mt. Kenya is behind Ruto should not fool you.  I do not know if Raila will run or not in 2022 but if the elections are free and fair, the Mt. Kenya vote would be split once Ouru is not on ballot and Ruto will lose. Ruto peaked too early and I can only see him loose ground as time goes by.  Ruto should make sure Ouru does not endorse the referendum because if he does, then Ruto will have to campaign against ouru and that would be like walking on a rope. Ruto needs Ouru but Ouru does not need him. Ouru on the other hand needs Raila to finish his term and have a shot at a legacy. Ouru must move away from Ruto for the "greater good" of Kenya to even have  a semblance of a legacy.

[RV Pundit]

That is how not to be taken seriously. Remind me when Raila was PM and was attending every Kiambu funeral Why would you meet Moses Kuria thugs

Raila meets the Nairobi Business Community
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001280100/raila-extends-olive-branch-to-nairobi-business-group

[Nefertiti]

Raila is a jilted lover with nothing to lose. Ruto messed him in 02, 13 and 17 and must now face the wrath. It's easier to burn things down than to build them up.

In 08-13 Raila tried to inherit some GEMA - esp Meru and Nyeri-Nyandarua Kibaki-Matiba faultlines. Even Ruto fell for the Meru allure and Kindiki, Linturi were senior guests in UDM. Of course once Uhuru created TNA it was a pipe dream for both.

Today it's simpler task: hive off GEMA from Ruto. Luo-Kalenjin fight for GEMA.

That is how not to be taken seriously. Remind me when Raila was PM and was attending every Kiambu funeral Why would you meet Moses Kuria thugs

Raila meets the Nairobi Business Community
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001280100/raila-extends-olive-branch-to-nairobi-business-group

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru has gema under lock and key. But he has to retire in 2022. If he wants PM position - then he has another referendum coming - which will tear his gov apart because Ruto is not going to allow Uhuru to dillute PORK when it's Ruto's turn.

Raila is a jilted lover with nothing to lose. Ruto messed him in 02, 13 and 17 and must now face the wrath. It's easier to burn things down than to build them up.

In 08-13 Raila tried to inherit some GEMA - esp Meru and Nyeri-Nyandarua Kibaki-Matiba faultlines. Even Ruto fell for the Meru allure and Kindiki, Linturi were senior guests in UDM. Of course once Uhuru created TNA it was a pipe dream for both.

Today it's simpler task: hive off GEMA from Ruto.

[Nefertiti]

We know Kalenjin are sober and make better partners for GEMA and the Luos. It's why Moi could rule a quarter century without plunging the country into war. If you go to a bar in Nairobi you can see the dynamic: Kikuyu and Luo men are the loudest. Now GEMA have more resources in money, numbers, mobilizing. They are also more cohesive - as in you have GEMA and non-GEMA politics which makes them more ally than competitor.

GEMA are clever and logical. We read in Miguna's book how Raila and Ruto would beat them in the street then get beaten in the boardroom. Kibaki knew Raila was a poor negotiator and would insist the talks be restricted to the principals - to keep out Ruto and Miguna. At Serena one could tell who was better in the boardroom game, just from the line up.

You have told us many things Pundit, except why have GEMA accepted the Handshake? Swala nyeti hili.

That is all good - however everytime Luos have attempted an alliance with GEMA - it never last enough to be consummated - you can see how Jaramogi & Kenyatta fought barely a year into 1964 - and by 66 it was full scale war. Then Moi comes and clock 12yrs - and eventually become PORK - and keep GEMA for 10yrs before they decided they wanted to go for it. GEMA+Luos attempt another short-lived alliance in 90s in FORD and that never lasted 1yr - and it was dead. Then there was various attempt through 90s till 2002 when Moi picked Uhuru - and Raila had to pick Kibaki. And the before we could say NARC - there was full blown war - and by 2007 it was a civil war. And comes UhuRuto - and they've clocked 6 yrs working mostly like co-joined twins.Why would someone sane like GEMA want to destroy such a relationship? For Raila . I mean it won't even last this year before Raila get tired being subservient to GEMA . He is really trying to control his impluses and has bend backward Uhuru is lost for orifices!

I don't see Uhuru allowing referendum. All the noise about referendum have coming from Raila and his NASA groupies.

Why would Uhuru go for something that he has He is going to be powerful in Ruto gov and doesn't need to start a war with Ruto & RV to get what he wants - I mean GEMA would be so foolish to split jubilee and end up having to choice btw Raila and Ruto . I mean even if Uhuru was to be ambitious and go for executive PORK from parliamentary systems - what gurantee does he have that GEMA would have more MPS than say Ruto or Raila .

The smart thing for Uhuru is to go for Jubilee Supreme Leader - and appoint a trustworthy GEMA DPORK to deputize Ruto. That way he secures his personal (supreme leader) and community interest(DPORK who takes over Uhuru).  The stupid thing to go to war with Ruto - with Raila as his right hand man That would win him darwin award!

Pundit.  You are putting a brave face but you are not fooling me.  You never saw this coming. Lets make this tribal and dirty.  Kikuyus owed luos the Kenyattaa presidency, the Kibaki tosha and also the 2007 kibaki second term which was stolen. Kalenjins should therefore stand on line for Kikuyu to pay their earlier political debts before crying that Ouru owes them.  Ouru cannot walk out of the handshake so easily because it is really not up to him alone. Just because a few Mt. Kenya Mps that Ruto paid are saying that the entire Mt. Kenya is behind Ruto should not fool you.  I do not know if Raila will run or not in 2022 but if the elections are free and fair, the Mt. Kenya vote would be split once Ouru is not on ballot and Ruto will lose. Ruto peaked too early and I can only see him loose ground as time goes by.  Ruto should make sure Ouru does not endorse the referendum because if he does, then Ruto will have to campaign against ouru and that would be like walking on a rope. Ruto needs Ouru but Ouru does not need him. Ouru on the other hand needs Raila to finish his term and have a shot at a legacy. Ouru must move away from Ruto for the "greater good" of Kenya to even have  a semblance of a legacy.

[RV Pundit]

GEMA find itself in a fix - they don't have a successor to Uhuru who can unite them and negotiate for them post-uhuru. Uhuru has to decide if he is going to attempt to extend his stay in power - which I think will find favour esp among his inner core (Murathe has alluded to this) or he'll prop a successor and do it soon. Whatever Uhuru told Kiunjuri might had been chilling.So for GEMA - they either wait for Uhuru or someone goes rogue! I don't see anybody within GEMA taking on Uhuru - not with his money+ gov. So basically Uhuru - a lazy entitled boy who cannot survive a day in politics against Raila or Ruto is playing a dangerous game where GEMA fate - and they may end up not with DPORK.

And yet if Uhuru was to annoint a successor - he would lame-duck so quickly.

You have told us many things Pundit, except why have GEMA accepted the Handshake? Swala nyeti hili.

[Nefertiti]

GEMA find itself in a fix - they don't have a successor to Uhuru who can unite them and negotiate for them post-uhuru. Uhuru has to decide if he is going to attempt to extend his stay in power - which I think will find favour esp among his inner core (Murathe has alluded to this) or he'll prop a successor and do it soon. Whatever Uhuru told Kiunjuri might had been chilling.So for GEMA - they either wait for Uhuru or someone goes rogue! I don't see anybody within GEMA taking on Uhuru - not with his money+ gov. So basically Uhuru - a lazy entitled boy who cannot survive a day in politics against Raila or Ruto is playing a dangerous game where GEMA fate - and they may end up not with DPORK.

And yet if Uhuru was to annoint a successor - he would lame-duck so quickly.

You have told us many things Pundit, except why have GEMA accepted the Handshake? Swala nyeti hili.

[RV Pundit]

Obviously now he is PORK and powerful - so let not worry about his background. Anyway I think the deal is still 50-50. Uhuru and his lankey get to pick half- and - Ruto half. Obviously Ruto is not going to sleep until he has strong base. Raila in my view is kaput and now is reduced to Luo leader.

[Nefertiti]

Just know the bigger the Ruto non-GEMA & non-Kalenjin outreach, the more rattled GEMA will hedge. Power concede nothing right? Ruto was co-president because Jubilee was a coalition... and TNA could not win alone. GEMA will build coalitions too and Ruto cannot be smart alec... offering them amorphous Supreme Leader in a single party... and claiming noone but he can expand alliances. If he is ready for power-sharing isn't PM a good deal? DPORK is mere VP that will be ignored.

Obviously now he is PORK and powerful - so let not worry about his background. Anyway I think the deal is still 50-50. Uhuru and his lankey get to pick half- and - Ruto half. Obviously Ruto is not going to sleep until he has strong base. Raila in my view is kaput and now is reduced to Luo leader.

[gout]

Looking at Ruto and the Rift Valley MPs seems the handshake would easily become a real threat were it not Raila's cannibalization tendencies. If Raila is facilitated to 'build the bridges' he will be checking Ruto's chokehold on the 'others' who can guarantee him 2022 without GEMA and Luo/Luhya vote. The implosion will be messy, noisy - listening to Uhuru during Matiba's funeral, Ruto's pale face during Kipchoim funeral, Sonko's undermining, Munya's inclusion in govt, Ngunjiri Wambugu/Ndindi Nyoro rising chorus of hatuna deni, Moi's snub do not look good.

With no economic respite in sight and Ruto's corruption tag, GEMA's support for Ruto is fading very fast. Ruto will become the Raila hate figure - Kimundu- sooner than I imagined.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto's dream is to be arap Nyayo in today's multiparty Kenya. A position last held Emilio Kibaki. Tough luck.

Looking at Ruto and the Rift Valley MPs seems the handshake would easily become a real threat were it not Raila's cannibalization tendencies. If Raila is facilitated to 'build the bridges' he will be checking Ruto's chokehold on the 'others' who can guarantee him 2022 without GEMA and Luo/Luhya vote. The implosion will be messy, noisy - listening to Uhuru during Matiba's funeral, Ruto's pale face during Kipchoim funeral, Sonko's undermining, Munya's inclusion in govt, Ngunjiri Wambugu/Ndindi Nyoro rising chorus of hatuna deni, Moi's snub do not look good.

With no economic respite in sight and Ruto's corruption tag, GEMA's support for Ruto is fading very fast. Ruto will become the Raila hate figure - Kimundu- sooner than I imagined.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I would be thoroughly surprised if the hustler has support on the ground outside his Kalenjin enclave.  Being kingmaker and the king are different animals.  You can be a kingmaker just by being able to rally a specific group.  King requires some heft in a more diverse base.  Railia has that with a proven track record.  Kamwana might also have had that in 2013.

Uhuruto is history and it's happening in plain sight.  However it will take some of us a bit longer to adjust to that reality.

[RV Pundit]

Why the clamour to introduce PM when Ruto is about to become PORK? At end of the day it's about trust - PM and PORK cannot work - two center of powers cannot - GEMA have to accepted DPORK and Uhuru the supreme leader of Jubilee. Anything else Jubilee will cannibalize each other.

Just know the bigger the Ruto non-GEMA & non-Kalenjin outreach, the more rattled GEMA will hedge. Power concede nothing right? Ruto was co-president because Jubilee was a coalition... and TNA could not win alone. GEMA will build coalitions too and Ruto cannot be smart alec... offering them amorphous Supreme Leader in a single party... and claiming noone but he can expand alliances. If he is ready for power-sharing isn't PM a good deal? DPORK is mere VP that will be ignored.

[RV Pundit]

Don't conflate your wishes with reality. Ruto in 2022 opinion conducted so far was leading by far. I know it's hard for Raila folks to imagine that anybody else can win votes - but wake up and smell the coffee.

I would be thoroughly surprised if the hustler has support on the ground outside his Kalenjin enclave.  Being kingmaker and the king are different animals.  You can be a kingmaker just by being able to rally a specific group.  King requires some heft in a more diverse base.  Railia has that with a proven track record.  Kamwana might also have had that in 2013.

Uhuruto is history and it's happening in plain sight.  However it will take some of us a bit longer to adjust to that reality.

[RV Pundit]

And then what. Then Ngunjiri miraculously win PORK in 2022. Uhuru is no fool and therefore you guys are just being taken to cleaners together with Raila. Few months from now - and the obvious will become obvious to some of you.

Looking at Ruto and the Rift Valley MPs seems the handshake would easily become a real threat were it not Raila's cannibalization tendencies. If Raila is facilitated to 'build the bridges' he will be checking Ruto's chokehold on the 'others' who can guarantee him 2022 without GEMA and Luo/Luhya vote. The implosion will be messy, noisy - listening to Uhuru during Matiba's funeral, Ruto's pale face during Kipchoim funeral, Sonko's undermining, Munya's inclusion in govt, Ngunjiri Wambugu/Ndindi Nyoro rising chorus of hatuna deni, Moi's snub do not look good.

With no economic respite in sight and Ruto's corruption tag, GEMA's support for Ruto is fading very fast. Ruto will become the Raila hate figure - Kimundu- sooner than I imagined.

[RV Pundit]

As long as the choice is btw Ruto and Raila...then it no brainer..Ruto can already order the drapes for statehouse.

Looking at Ruto and the Rift Valley MPs seems the handshake would easily become a real threat were it not Raila's cannibalization tendencies. If Raila is facilitated to 'build the bridges' he will be checking Ruto's chokehold on the 'others' who can guarantee him 2022 without GEMA and Luo/Luhya vote. The implosion will be messy, noisy - listening to Uhuru during Matiba's funeral, Ruto's pale face during Kipchoim funeral, Sonko's undermining, Munya's inclusion in govt, Ngunjiri Wambugu/Ndindi Nyoro rising chorus of hatuna deni, Moi's snub do not look good.

With no economic respite in sight and Ruto's corruption tag, GEMA's support for Ruto is fading very fast. Ruto will become the Raila hate figure - Kimundu- sooner than I imagined.