Uhuru is goin down

[vooke]

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Now, the average voter sees him as a thief; he stole votes.

Babu on top of all else has the victim sympathy on his side as  he was robbed of his victory in broad daylight.


Add to this IEBC is now at NASA's mercy. Anything Babu demands they will deliver. So 102% transparency and 103% accountability not to mention 104% verifiability

Uhuru will go down

Watch that 4% evaporate in a New York Minute

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru has the incumbency. He was found innocent of  any malpractise. My initial instinct is Uhuru will win by bigger margin than 54%. Kenyans don't vote on morality. Uhuru won in first term when he was facing trial for crimes against humanity. People vote their interests. Uhuru has 220 Mps. Nearly 30 Governors. Several MCAS working for him. And he has positions to give to losers btw now and nov 1st. Lets not talk about tonnes of money and the coercive power.

I don't think NASA will be ready for this election anytime now. I think now they will want to stall or cause civil disobedience and try to cut some NUSU MKATE deal. They know they cannot rule without parliament. They are not going for elections.

NASA will demand new IEBC - new systems - and new commissioners- new secretariat - or the UN - all that cannot be granted in sixth days.

[bryan275]

Uhuru has the incumbency. He was found innocent of  any malpractise. My initial instinct is Uhuru will win by bigger margin than 54%. Kenyans don't vote on morality. Uhuru won in first term when he was facing trial for crimes against humanity. People vote their interests. Uhuru has 220 Mps. Nearly 30 Governors. Several MCAS working for him. And he has positions to give to losers btw now and nov 1st.

I don't think NASA will be ready for this election anytime now. I think now they will want to stall or cause civil disobedience and try to cut some NUSU MKATE deal. They know they cannot rule without parliament. They are not going for elections.

Uhuru is the most guilty party in all this.  IEBC just facilitated his theft.  We will know when the IEBC saff start singing like canaries during their upcoming trials.  Poors sods could wind up dead well before they're even tried.

UHURU Kenyatta is an electoral thief and the world has seen it.

Period.

[RV Pundit]

That is your own judgement. The judges found Uhuru innocent. And IEBC guilty.

Uhuru is the most guilty party in all this.  IEBC just facilitated his theft.  We will know when the IEBC saff start singing like canaries during their upcoming trials.  Poors sods could wind up dead well before they're even tried.

UHURU Kenyatta is an electoral thief and the world has seen it.

Period.

[vooke]

Uhuru has the incumbency. He was found innocent of  any malpractise. My initial instinct is Uhuru will win by bigger margin than 54%. Kenyans don't vote on morality. Uhuru won in first term when he was facing trial for crimes against humanity. People vote their interests. Uhuru has 220 Mps. Nearly 30 Governors. Several MCAS working for him. And he has positions to give to losers btw now and nov 1st. Lets not talk about tonnes of money and the coercive power.

I don't think NASA will be ready for this election anytime now. I think now they will want to stall or cause civil disobedience and try to cut some NUSU MKATE deal. They know they cannot rule without parliament. They are not going for elections.

NASA will demand new IEBC - new systems - and new commissioners- new secretariat - or the UN - all that cannot be granted in sixth days.

All these things barely got him past 50%. There is something to be said for the excitement that will greet NASWA strongholds and semi strongholds. The turnout is likely to be crazy

[RV Pundit]

There is no scenario I have ever ran (Omollo also tried ) that has Raila winning by 50%. And all scenarios I have ran for 2013 and 2017 has Uhuru worse case at 50%/ The turn out is going to be crazy all over the country. The thing is NASA and Raila knows he is not going to win or ran Gok. The next days be ready for impossible demands all geared towards NUSU MKATE. Uhuru has to stay the course - he has to stand strong and demand for election within 60 days - whatever NASA want and court wants - let them be granted - but new election need to be held.

If Uhuru had advantage in 8th August - that advantage is now bigger.

All these things barely got him past 50%. There is something to be said for the excitement that will greet NASWA strongholds and semi strongholds. The turnout is likely to be crazy

[Nefertiti]

I don't agree with you Pundit... the ruling is in favor of Raila and so is the political momentum. Expect an avalanche of downstream petitions. So we might wind up with a rerun of all 6 elections. Don't worry, even without them my MOAS might be upheld - Jubilee takes parliament, NASA takes PORK

[vooke]

There is no scenario I have ever ran (Omollo also tried ) that has Raila winning by 50%. And all scenarios I have ran for 2013 and 2017 has Uhuru worse case at 50%/ The turn out is going to be crazy all over the country. The thing is NASA and Raila knows he is not going to win or ran Gok. The next days be ready for impossible demands all geared towards NUSU MKATE. Uhuru has to stay the course - he has to stand strong and demand for election within 60 days - whatever NASA want and court wants - let them be granted - but new election need to be held.

If Uhuru had advantage in 8th August - that advantage is now bigger.

50% may seem optimistic but the way I see it is, Uhuru must have connived with IEBC. It may not be proven but the irregularities surely benefit the winner. They frustrated access to their servers. All this tells me that the 54% was inflated.

I agree Babu will have nightmares governing with only 1/3 minority

[RV Pundit]

We shall see in few weeks what political momentum Raila has if any. The issue for many in the battleground now is 2 bird in the forest or 1 bird in hand.You know how that riddle end.Obviously each stronghold is now harden and will turn out at 90%. It should not be hard to measure the political wind in few weeks.

As regard to petition - let wait for judgement - SCOK may have re-written the rules and made it impossible for IEBC to win a petition.

My contention - NASA don't and will not want election in 60 days. They will try NUSU MKATE.

I don't agree with you Pundit... the ruling is in favor of Raila and so is the political momentum. Expect an avalanche of downstream petitions. So we might wind up with a rerun of all 6 elections. Don't worry, even without them my MOAS might be upheld - Jubilee takes parliament, NASA takes PORK

[Nefertiti]

And they may just get it.

My contention - NASA don't and will not want election in 60 days. They will try NUSU MKATE.

[bryan275]

And they may just get it.

My contention - NASA don't and will not want election in 60 days. They will try NUSU MKATE.

Why would they want to share (again) with electoral thieves?

[RV Pundit]

That is what makes me unhappy. Uhuru is not half as strong as WSR. He will waive the white flag which will complicate Ruto ran in 2013. Odinga and NASA groupies will want that. They will see 2017 is all but gone - even if in the very unlikely event you win - how do you rule with parliament & senate totally against you - so they will try to cause ruckus - and buy time for 2022 where they reckon Ruto will be weaker - than GEMA candidate.

Ruto need to really keep Uhuru on 24-7 watch so he doesn't crack. Chebukati & Chiloba also need to stay the course. Then we have election in 60 days whether NASA want or not. And we beat them again this time with even bigger margins. Now that is my wish.

And they may just get it.

[vooke]

That is what makes me unhappy. Uhuru is not half as strong as WSR. He will waive the white flag which will complicate Ruto ran in 2013. Odinga and NASA groupies will want that. They will see 2017 is all but gone - even if in the very unlikely event you win - how do you rule with parliament & senate totally against you - so they will try to cause ruckus - and buy time for 2022 where they reckon Ruto will be weaker - than GEMA candidate.

Ruto need to really keep Uhuru on 24-7 watch so he doesn't crack. Chebukati & Chiloba also need to stay the course. Then we have election in 60 days whether NASA want or not. And we beat them again this time with even bigger margins. Now that is my wish.

And they may just get it.

Pundito if you are right, I strongly support you. JUBILEE's hard work of securing all those seats will go down the drain with a nusu mkate. Let's go back to the ballot and face off there

[Nefertiti]

Ruto's meticulous plans going up in smoke... music to my ears  You know my reasons - disrupt ethonocracy and LEAPFROG (MOON Ki are you in?) to meritocracy.

However am for proper elections and not nusu mkate. Just have a clean winner. In that case I vote NASA from all the way in Palm Springs.

That is what makes me unhappy. Uhuru is not half as strong as WSR. He will waive the white flag which will complicate Ruto ran in 2013. Odinga and NASA groupies will want that. They will see 2017 is all but gone - even if in the very unlikely event you win - how do you rule with parliament & senate totally against you - so they will try to cause ruckus - and buy time for 2022 where they reckon Ruto will be weaker - than GEMA candidate.

Ruto need to really keep Uhuru on 24-7 watch so he doesn't crack. Chebukati & Chiloba also need to stay the course. Then we have election in 60 days whether NASA want or not. And we beat them again this time with even bigger margins. Now that is my wish.

[Nefertiti]

Pundito if you are right, I strongly support you. JUBILEE's hard work of securing all those seats will go down the drain with a nusu mkate. Let's go back to the ballot and face off there

If the presidential election was rigged how can you vouch for the rest of the "hard work"?

[RV Pundit]

We shall see - my bet is Raila is looking for NUSU mkate - he is not going for election in 60 days - the Judges have given him a perfect excuse for nusu-mkate - I expect Raila to demand election cannot be conducted by IEBC - and as already alluded UN or something else.

My contention is that NASA will not be ready in 60 days for an election. They are already broken and most of their supporters  are in fix - 2 birds in forest or one at hand.

AS I foresee... this will pan out as either
1) Proceed and hold election against NASA wishes -They have parliament & senate - if Chebukati or anyone resign - they can be replaced easily the same day if need be .
2) Judiciary - NASA will ran there nearly every day - They will try to get extension as they blockade every IEBC activity.
3) Uhuru acting under some softie advice will cut deal - parliament & senate will pass stupid constitutional ammendement akin to NARA ACT - but Ruto will definitely oppose that.

The Uhuru that will come out in few days is either 1) the softie who gave up pork to maDVD 2) the angry reckless furious uhuru who bangs table. I am going to wait for that. If he rigged - he'll go the softie way - if he reckon he win without rigging he go for re-run.

Pundito if you are right, I strongly support you. JUBILEE's hard work of securing all those seats will go down the drain with a nusu mkate. Let's go back to the ballot and face off there

[Nefertiti]

I see UhuRuto sticking together like glue. Uhuru is not Kibaki coward, he is not shaky. They will resist nusu mkate and the outcome will depend on downstream ruling. I need to see opinion on that. Winners and losers on both sides will go separate ways especially in swing counties... which gives Jubilee the bigger headache. Kiraitus and Tunais would not want to face debe again and thus wil back nusu mkate.

We shall see - my bet is Raila is looking for NUSU mkate - he is not going for election in 60 days - the Judges have given him a perfect excuse for nusu-mkate - I expect Raila to demand election cannot be conducted by IEBC - and as already alluded UN or something else.

My contention is that NASA will not be ready in 60 days for an election. They are already broken and most of their supporters  are in fix - 2 birds in forest or one at hand.

AS I foresee... this will pan out as either
1) Proceed and hold election against NASA wishes -They have parliament & senate - if Chebukati or anyone resign - they can be replaced easily the same day if need be .
2) Judiciary - NASA will ran there nearly every day - They will try to get extension as they blockade every IEBC activity.
3) Uhuru acting under some softie advice will cut deal - parliament & senate will pass stupid constitutional ammendement akin to NARA ACT - but Ruto will definitely oppose that.

[RV Pundit]

You're mixing it up. The other elections are valid. If you dispute - then you have to file petition - none of those will be ready in six months. Unlike PORK petition - filling itself take 1month - replies 1 month - etc etc.

Now they are two things to watch 1) If Uhuru agree to NUSU mkate & NASA delay tactis - it means he rigged and he is on shaky ground 2) if he proceed to facilitate and insist on 60 days re-run - ( he has executive & parliament -  Odunga can of course make his rullings) - then you know he won and is confident of winning again.

I see UhuRuto sticking together like glue. Uhuru is not Kibaki coward, he is not shaky. They will resist nusu mkate and the outcome will depend on downstream ruling. I need to see opinion on that. Winners and losers on both sides will go separate ways especially in swing counties... which gives Jubilee the bigger headache. Kiraitus and Tunais would not want to face debe again and thus wil back nusu mkate.

[bryan275]

Master Rigger is about to speak....

[vooke]

Pundito if you are right, I strongly support you. JUBILEE's hard work of securing all those seats will go down the drain with a nusu mkate. Let's go back to the ballot and face off there

If the presidential election was rigged how can you vouch for the rest of the "hard work"?

Robina,
The negligible number of petitions filed to date persuade me there was minimal irregularities in the other elections.

I'm no jubilee but I'm saying if I were in Ouru's shoes, I'd not negotiate with Babu; the sweet majority juices would evaporate. I doubt even jubilee members wish for this.