Kichwa, On Bonface Mwangi

[Kichwa]

Its the egg and chicken which came first all over again. The tribal alliances needs an issue to bring them together and not the other way round.  I believe its the ICC that brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together in 2013 and then they were bonded by the power of incumbency and political interdependency for power retention after that.   The NASA coalition was bonded by those who felt marginalized or left out.  Everything in Kenya can be explained in tribal terms. 

As I see it, it's very simple:

* Ignore tribe and run on whatever, and losing is almost inevitable.

* Craft a good tribal alliance, and things look pretty good.

Uhuru and Ruto have done well in that:

* The Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance has solid numbers to start with.

* Other sheeple automatically came in from from "affiliate" tribes.

* "Opposition tribes" that do not have strong enough "leaders" will readily surrender some of their members to the seduction of "join us so that you too can eat".

* Incumbency means the power to engage in mischief with the electoral system.


Where does all that leave us?

Do Kenyans care about the "issues"?   Quite possibly.   But I have earlier given an example here: just compare the number of Kenyans in Nairobi (a city of millions) who will show up for an anti-corruption rally---corruption supposedly a major concern---and those who will show up at a place where a couple is supposedly "stuck".

Education, healthcare, food, .... what are the signs that Kenyans really care about what they get? 

Kenyans are going to keep suffering---sometimes through astonishing stupidity, such as spending enormous amounts on laptops for toddlers while begging the rest of the world for food---and it will be so until they have had enough.   Then they will be keen on change, just as  they were after 25 years (!) of kicks-in-the-teeth/rear-end-tarimbo from Moi.

Kenyans are in their own bizarre "comfort zone", and worrying about change at this point seems to be pointless.   Better to focus on "hustling" and "sponsorship" and any other kind of eating.

Where does that leave Raila?

Raila's name is forever imprinted on the face of Kenyan politics.   When the dust settles and we reflect on the political transformation of Kenya, Raila's name will be prominent but those of the current power-duo nowhere.     Moi will be there, as a serious bastard; but Kibaki, despite his ten years, will get only a footnote for f**king up when he had the chance to really set the country on a new path.

Still, Raila is no longer the energetic firebrand that he use to be.   Crowd-performances are one thing, but some things require solid, sustained, dull, ... labour.   Raila doesn't have to have that, but he should be mindful of it.  That doesn't appear to be (have been) the case.

I have sometimes written on some of these matters, and commented on major misdirections (such as the OKOA thing),  ....   The True Believers never cared for any of it, but perhaps we can reminisce.   Here is something I wrote 7 months ago:

Omollo:

You and your friends should perhaps take a break from wailing about theft and rigging and whatever and instead focus on "what needs to be done".    So far, I have seen little evidence that CORD really learned any lessons from 2013.    (I will not repeat my questions on voter registration.  Nor will I repeat my prediction that many tears will soon be shed on that front.)

This being Kenya, of course there will be some theft and rigging; so let's accept that as "given".   The question, then, is what CORD plans to do about it.   (You need not provide an answer here or try to convince us of anything; CORD just needs to get on with it, for its own sake.)

Kenya needs a change, and CORD could be that change.  But does CORD have  a better plan that it appears to have had at any time in the last few years?     

On the narrow point of "cleansing the register": It is amusing that this is suddenly a "hot" issue.   If it were up to me, I would have started on the "cleansing" way back in 2013 while at the same time working to have mechanisms in place to ensure that the register stayed "clean" as registration continued. 

http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=3842.0

[MOON Ki]

Its the egg and chicken which came first all over again. The tribal alliances needs an issue to bring them together and not the other way round.  I believe its the ICC that brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together in 2013 and then they were bonded by the power of incumbency and political interdependency for power retention after that.   The NASA coalition was bonded by those who felt marginalized or left out.  Everything in Kenya can be explained in tribal terms. 

Exactly.   Mostly.  Some minor aspects can be explained in terms of  uncontrolled individual greed and such-like simple psychopathy.   But, even then, always with tribe for cover.  Got caught stealing a billion or two from the youth?   Just appeal to our people, and move on to "bigger and better" things.  And so on, and so forth.    Kazi iendelee.   

Anyways .... to my mind .... much better to directly tackle the tribal elephant, instead of hoping that merely wishing it away will work.   

[Kichwa]

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Its the egg and chicken which came first all over again. The tribal alliances needs an issue to bring them together and not the other way round.  I believe its the ICC that brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together in 2013 and then they were bonded by the power of incumbency and political interdependency for power retention after that.   The NASA coalition was bonded by those who felt marginalized or left out.  Everything in Kenya can be explained in tribal terms. 

Exactly.   Mostly.  Some minor aspects can be explained in terms of  uncontrolled individual greed and such-like simple psychopathy.   But, even then, always with tribe for cover.  Got caught stealing a billion or two from the youth?   Just appeal to our people, and move on to "bigger and better" things.  And so on, and so forth.    Kazi iendelee.   

Anyways .... to my mind .... much better to directly tackle the tribal elephant, instead of hoping that merely wishing it away will work.   

[MOON Ki]

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  when there are better explanations which leads to hope.

That's like saying that the best way to deal with global warming is to explain it  in terms of problems that one thinks one can solve; that way people don't give up if the problems look too hard.  I, on the other hand, would think that the best way to deal with global warming is to explain it terms of its real causes, whatever they might be, and then work on solutions.   Have you reflected on all your pre-election claims and statements? Still, good luck with your approach.

[vooke]

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.

It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.

You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.

[Kichwa]

MoonKi- I have a lot of respect to your different approach to this issue and I wish you had the same for us. Even with Global warming people disagree about the  "real causes" and the right approach.

In Kenyan I believe that things can change and therefore we campaigned believing we could win. I also believe we won in more than one ways.   I still think this country is worth fighting for and the opposition must never give up. There are people who supported NASA who are talking about not ever voting again but that is normal at this time and hopefully they will change their minds. We are going to court now and if we do not win then we keep on fighting. Those who are sitting on the fence or those  who believe they can never lose and are laughing at us can continue to do so but giving up is not an option for some of us. I have lived long enough to appreciate that some struggles take a long time.  Some African Americans are still fighting for their rights even after  a black president and Africans are still fighting for their rights even after the colonialists left.  I never underestimated our enemy at anytime and I am NOT totally shocked with how things turned out-the rigging..  Let us just agree to disagree and move on.

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  when there are better explanations which leads to hope.

That's like saying that the best way to deal with global warming is to explain it  in terms of problems that one thinks one can solve; that way people don't give up if the problems look too hard.  I, on the other hand, would think that the best way to deal with global warming is to explain it terms of its real causes, whatever they might be, and then work on solutions.   Have you reflected on all your pre-election claims and statements? Still, good luck with your approach.

[Kichwa]

Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same.  It must start with some issue then you tribalize it.  The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized.  Uhuru and Ruto  found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it.  All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight.  Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.

It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.

You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Kichwa,

You can believe - actually acknowledge(there is no reasonable doubt about it) - that tribe is the dominant basis of Kenya's current politics and still entertain the hope that this will change.  I don't see any contradictions there.

[vooke]

Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same.  It must start with some issue then you tribalize it.  The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized.  Uhuru and Ruto  found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it.  All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight.  Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.

It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.

You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.

You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.

This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues

[Kichwa]

No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them.  That is the difference.

Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same.  It must start with some issue then you tribalize it.  The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized.  Uhuru and Ruto  found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it.  All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight.  Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.

It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.

You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.

You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.

This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues

[vooke]

No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them.  That is the difference.

Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same.  It must start with some issue then you tribalize it.  The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized.  Uhuru and Ruto  found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it.  All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight.  Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.

It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.

You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.

You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.

This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues

Tautology
Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality'

As long as Tribe remains the main voting predictor/determinant, Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality' yields the same result; preference&/rejection of a leader almost purely on account of their ethnicity

[Kichwa]

Unless you know the issues, you cannot predict the tribal alliances.  I can think of a scenario where Kalenjins and Luos will vote together in 2022 or another scenario where luos may vote together in 2022  with kikuyus and yet another scenario where kikuyus and Kalenjins will be killing each other.  Its the issues that you have to watch out for. In 2002 the issue of "Moi/Kanu fatigue"  split the kikuyu vote.  I can also think of issues which can split the luo vote or the Luhyia vote. In 2022 you cannot predict with any degree of certainty whether the NASA tribal alliance will still be intact because you do not know the issues. Hiyo tuu

No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them.  That is the difference.

Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same.  It must start with some issue then you tribalize it.  The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized.  Uhuru and Ruto  found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it.  All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight.  Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.

It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.

You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.

You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.

This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues

Tautology
Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality'

As long as Tribe remains the main voting predictor/determinant, Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality' yields the same result; preference&/rejection of a leader almost purely on account of their ethnicity

[vooke]

Unless you know the issues, you cannot predict the tribal alliances.  I can think of a scenario where Kalenjins and Luos will vote together in 2022 or another scenario where luos may vote together in 2022  with kikuyus and yet another scenario where kikuyus and Kalenjins will be killing each other.  Its the issues that you have to watch out for. In 2002 the issue of "Moi/Kanu fatigue"  split the kikuyu vote.  I can also think of issues which can split the luo vote or the Luhyia vote. In 2022 you cannot predict with any degree of certainty whether the NASA tribal alliance will still be intact because you do not know the issues. Hiyo tuu

No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them.  That is the difference.

Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same.  It must start with some issue then you tribalize it.  The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized.  Uhuru and Ruto  found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it.  All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight.  Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.

It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.

You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.

You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.

This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues

Tautology
Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality'

As long as Tribe remains the main voting predictor/determinant, Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality' yields the same result; preference&/rejection of a leader almost purely on account of their ethnicity

You are not saying anything.
Predicting whether Kambas will be in NASA in 2022 may be premature now, but you can bet Kambas will almost to man follow their leaders to whatever coalition they will lead them. Inability to predict this does not take away Tribe from the equation while adding 'issues'.

2002 Kambas voted for Kibaki because their leaders led them to him
2007 they voted alone for Kalonzo because he was on the ballot
2013 they voted Baba because Kalonzo led the, to Baba
2017 they voted Baba again because Kalonzo led them to Baba
2022 they will vote largely or to man for whoever their leaders will lead them

That's tribalism/homeboy mentality/tribalizing issues.....pick the vocabulary but the fact remains. Pundito may not tell you NOW how they will vote,but he can predict they will cast their lots with their leaders their 'issues' not withstanding.

[Kichwa]

You are the one who is confused. The reason why it is premature for you to predict how Kambas or Luos or Luhyias or Kisii's or Kikuyus will vote in 2022 is because you do not know what the issues will be.

Unless you know the issues, you cannot predict the tribal alliances.  I can think of a scenario where Kalenjins and Luos will vote together in 2022 or another scenario where luos may vote together in 2022  with kikuyus and yet another scenario where kikuyus and Kalenjins will be killing each other.  Its the issues that you have to watch out for. In 2002 the issue of "Moi/Kanu fatigue"  split the kikuyu vote.  I can also think of issues which can split the luo vote or the Luhyia vote. In 2022 you cannot predict with any degree of certainty whether the NASA tribal alliance will still be intact because you do not know the issues. Hiyo tuu

No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them.  That is the difference.

Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same.  It must start with some issue then you tribalize it.  The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized.  Uhuru and Ruto  found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it.  All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight.  Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.

It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.

You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.

You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.

This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues

Tautology
Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality'

As long as Tribe remains the main voting predictor/determinant, Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality' yields the same result; preference&/rejection of a leader almost purely on account of their ethnicity

You are not saying anything.
Predicting whether Kambas will be in NASA in 2022 may be premature now, but you can bet Kambas will almost to man follow their leaders to whatever coalition they will lead them. Inability to predict this does not take away Tribe from the equation while adding 'issues'.

2002 Kambas voted for Kibaki because their leaders led them to him
2007 they voted alone for Kalonzo because he was on the ballot
2013 they voted Baba because Kalonzo led the, to Baba
2017 they voted Baba again because Kalonzo led them to Baba
2022 they will vote largely or to man for whoever their leaders will lead them

That's tribalism/homeboy mentality/tribalizing issues.....pick the vocabulary but the fact remains. Pundito may not tell you NOW how they will vote,but he can predict they will cast their lots with their leaders their 'issues' not withstanding.

[Kadame6]

Whats this need to make Kichwa follow the dogmas of nipate? Physics was near 100% sold on Newtonian physics when Einstein came along with a crazy new explanation for the exact same things. No one denies the tribal trends themselves. Its not been my understanding of his posts that Kichwa denies them. The disagreement is with the ultimate explanation for these trends. That explanation has implications for how changeable one thinks this phenomenon is. That the most obvious explanation is the consensus of the forum doesn't mean its the only reasonable one given the short instances in history when Kenyans showed a deep desire to unite rather than stick to their tribal cacoons. I see no problem entertaining more than one rigid way of looking at things.

[Kichwa]

Kadame: I agree with you.  I accept the correlation.  What I refuse to accept  is their treatment of the correlation as if it were causation. Their insistence that they are right and any other explanation which is not tribal is wrong is the epitome of arrogance. One would think that they have monopoly of wisdom on how Kenyans vote.

Whats this need to make Kichwa follow the dogmas of nipate? Physics was near 100% sold on Newtonian physics when Einstein came along with a crazy new explanation for the exact same things. No one denies the tribal trends themselves. Its not been my understanding of his posts that Kichwa denies them. The disagreement is with the ultimate explanation for these trends. That explanation has implications for how changeable one thinks this phenomenon is. That the most obvious explanation is the consensus of the forum doesn't mean its the only reasonable one given the short instances in history when Kenyans showed a deep desire to unite rather than stick to their tribal cacoons. I see no problem entertaining more than one rigid way of looking at things.

[MOON Ki]

Whats this need to make Kichwa follow the dogmas of nipate? Physics was near 100% sold on Newtonian physics when Einstein came along with a crazy new explanation for the exact same things. No one denies the tribal trends themselves. Its not been my understanding of his posts that Kichwa denies them. The disagreement is with the ultimate explanation for these trends. That explanation has implications for how changeable one thinks this phenomenon is. That the most obvious explanation is the consensus of the forum doesn't mean its the only reasonable one given the short instances in history when Kenyans showed a deep desire to unite rather than stick to their tribal cacoons. I see no problem entertaining more than one rigid way of looking at things.

You lost me somewhere.  Kichwa has his views, which he freely expresses here.  Others have different views, which they freely express here.   As far as I can tell, all views are "entertained".   Should Kichwa's "rigidity" in his views be considered superior to the "rigidity" in other views?   If not, then we should see it as no more than people expressing different views and disagreeing.     It's not as though anyone is trying to "convert" Kichwa.   Or is the idea that those who don't agree with him should simply shut up?

[Kichwa]

my view on this issue is far from rigid because I am saying that Kenyans do not vote based on tribe alone and the evidence is overwhelming. Both Ouru's votes and Raila's votes exceed the number of Kikuyu and Luo registered voters. There are also kikuyus who voted for Raila and Luos who voted for Ouru. The rigidity lies in the argument that Kenyans vote on tribe alone- Period.

Whats this need to make Kichwa follow the dogmas of nipate? Physics was near 100% sold on Newtonian physics when Einstein came along with a crazy new explanation for the exact same things. No one denies the tribal trends themselves. Its not been my understanding of his posts that Kichwa denies them. The disagreement is with the ultimate explanation for these trends. That explanation has implications for how changeable one thinks this phenomenon is. That the most obvious explanation is the consensus of the forum doesn't mean its the only reasonable one given the short instances in history when Kenyans showed a deep desire to unite rather than stick to their tribal cacoons. I see no problem entertaining more than one rigid way of looking at things.

You lost me somewhere.  Kichwa has his views, which he freely expresses here.  Others have different views, which they freely express here.   As far as I can tell, all views are "entertained".   Should Kichwa's "rigidity" in his views be considered superior to the "rigidity" in other views?   If not, then we should see it as no more than people expressing different views and disagreeing.     It's not as though anyone is trying to "convert" Kichwa.   Or is the idea that those who don't agree with him should simply shut up?

[MOON Ki]

I am saying that Kenyans do not vote based on tribe alone and the evidence is overwhelming.

Yes, they supposedly vote on the basis of "issues".   And you will not budge from that view.   That is the rigidity.     

The evidence is overwhelming?   It is a pity that so many cannot see the overwhelming evidence .., so much so that your lady-friend even refers to a supposed "consensus of the forum".

Anyways ... good luck with the "overwhelming evidence".   So far, and contrary to your pre-election statements, it doesn't seem to have done your Heroes much good.   

[vooke]

You are the one who is confused. The reason why it is premature for you to predict how Kambas or Luos or Luhyias or Kisii's or Kikuyus will vote in 2022 is because you do not know what the issues will be.

Unless you know the issues, you cannot predict the tribal alliances.  I can think of a scenario where Kalenjins and Luos will vote together in 2022 or another scenario where luos may vote together in 2022  with kikuyus and yet another scenario where kikuyus and Kalenjins will be killing each other.  Its the issues that you have to watch out for. In 2002 the issue of "Moi/Kanu fatigue"  split the kikuyu vote.  I can also think of issues which can split the luo vote or the Luhyia vote. In 2022 you cannot predict with any degree of certainty whether the NASA tribal alliance will still be intact because you do not know the issues. Hiyo tuu

No they are NOT the same. Tribalism is not changed by issues but Tribalized issues can change very quickly and create new triabal alliances or destroy them.  That is the difference.

Whether its Ruto's fall out with Baba, or the Mau issue or the ICC, my contention remains the same.  It must start with some issue then you tribalize it.  The same With Jaramogi and Kenyattaa it started with the issues of disagreement on how to move forward as a country and then it was tribalized.  Uhuru and Ruto  found common ground on ICC and then figured out that the presidency was the only way out, then they tribalized it.  All this animosity between Kikuyus and luos is not written in stone. There could be an issue which wipes them out overnight.  Also the friendship between Kalenjins and Kikuyus can be wiped out over night by an issue.

Actually I was being sarcastic but I seriously believe that  how one choses to  explains things is important.  For Pundit and Vooke, the tribal explanation serves their purpose, because they want people to believe that the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hold on power is total and there is no need even fighting it because you will loose.  However for someone who is hopeful about change, the tribal explanation is useless because it only  leads to apathy and defeat.  I do not therefore see its utility  vlalue when there are better explanations which leads to hope. Based on your previous views on change, I see how the tribal explanations fits into your narrative.

Ruto fell out with Baba in 2008/9 and lost a serious chunk that had brought him to within victory. In 2013 he gained Kalonzo's Kamba but lost MaDVD's significant Western chunk. So he has never recovered losing Ruto.

It was Tribe (40 v1) that served Babu in 2007,2013 (Kamba), and 2017(parts of Western) So Baba is as a beneficiary of Tribe as anybody else only that that has yet to hand him State House.

You are beginning to sound like Babu who believes in structures and institutions as long as they serve him,only to trash them when they work against him. That's why he made the asinine statement of SCOK 'redeeming itself' by ruling in his favor.

You are getting it. Issues 'tribalized' is tribalism which is all everyone is telling you. Babu even christened it 'homeboy mentality', it's all the same; conviction that your kinsman is preferable over anybody else for no other reason than he's your kin.

This is nothing worth celebrating but it is what it is. When Pundito predicts voting patterns, he is not reinforcing it, he is not simplistic, he is just an observer. You have a choice; ignore reality and pursue your 'issues' bubble, or be realistic and explain how we move from tribe to issues

Tautology
Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality'

As long as Tribe remains the main voting predictor/determinant, Tribalism='tribalized "issues"'='homeboy mentality' yields the same result; preference&/rejection of a leader almost purely on account of their ethnicity

You are not saying anything.
Predicting whether Kambas will be in NASA in 2022 may be premature now, but you can bet Kambas will almost to man follow their leaders to whatever coalition they will lead them. Inability to predict this does not take away Tribe from the equation while adding 'issues'.

2002 Kambas voted for Kibaki because their leaders led them to him
2007 they voted alone for Kalonzo because he was on the ballot
2013 they voted Baba because Kalonzo led the, to Baba
2017 they voted Baba again because Kalonzo led them to Baba
2022 they will vote largely or to man for whoever their leaders will lead them

That's tribalism/homeboy mentality/tribalizing issues.....pick the vocabulary but the fact remains. Pundito may not tell you NOW how they will vote,but he can predict they will cast their lots with their leaders their 'issues' not withstanding.

Nope, you are confused or obtuse because you think anything outside Tribe will drive their voting patterns. The only indeterminate 'issue' is how Tribe will compel them