As I see it, it's very simple:* Ignore tribe and run on whatever, and losing is almost inevitable.
* Craft a good tribal alliance, and things look pretty good.
Uhuru and Ruto have done well in that:
* The Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance has solid numbers to start with.
* Other sheeple automatically came in from from "affiliate" tribes.
* "Opposition tribes" that do not have strong enough "leaders" will readily surrender some of their members to the seduction of "join us so that you too can eat".
* Incumbency means the power to engage in mischief with the electoral system.
Where does all that leave us?Do Kenyans care about the "issues"? Quite possibly. But I have earlier given an example here: just compare the number of Kenyans in Nairobi (a city of millions) who will show up for an anti-corruption rally---corruption supposedly a major concern---and those who will show up at a place where a couple is supposedly "stuck".
Education, healthcare, food, .... what are the signs that Kenyans
really care about what they get?
Kenyans are going to keep suffering---sometimes through astonishing stupidity, such as spending enormous amounts on laptops for toddlers while begging the rest of the world for food---and it will be so until they have had enough. Then they will be keen on change, just as they were after 25 years (!) of kicks-in-the-teeth/rear-end-tarimbo from Moi.
Kenyans are in their own bizarre "comfort zone", and worrying about change at this point seems to be pointless. Better to focus on "hustling" and "sponsorship" and any other kind of eating.
Where does that leave Raila?Raila's name is forever imprinted on the face of Kenyan politics. When the dust settles and we reflect on the political transformation of Kenya, Raila's name will be prominent but those of the current power-duo nowhere. Moi will be there, as a serious bastard; but Kibaki, despite his ten years, will get only a footnote for f**king up when he had the chance to really set the country on a new path.
Still, Raila is no longer the energetic firebrand that he use to be. Crowd-performances are one thing, but some things require solid, sustained, dull, ... labour. Raila doesn't have to have that, but he should be mindful of it. That doesn't appear to be (have been) the case.
I have sometimes written on some of these matters, and commented on major misdirections (such as the OKOA thing), .... The True Believers never cared for any of it, but perhaps we can reminisce. Here is something I wrote 7 months ago:
Omollo:
You and your friends should perhaps take a break from wailing about theft and rigging and whatever and instead focus on "what needs to be done". So far, I have seen little evidence that CORD really learned any lessons from 2013. (I will not repeat my questions on voter registration. Nor will I repeat my prediction that many tears will soon be shed on that front.)
This being Kenya, of course there will be some theft and rigging; so let's accept that as "given". The question, then, is what CORD plans to do about it. (You need not provide an answer here or try to convince us of anything; CORD just needs to get on with it, for its own sake.)
Kenya needs a change, and CORD could be that change. But does CORD have a better plan that it appears to have had at any time in the last few years?
On the narrow point of "cleansing the register": It is amusing that this is suddenly a "hot" issue. If it were up to me, I would have started on the "cleansing" way back in 2013 while at the same time working to have mechanisms in place to ensure that the register stayed "clean" as registration continued.
http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=3842.0
