Pundit: NASA has endorsed Mandago will that change MOAS?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

In UG they are saying Raila Tipim[sic].

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

That would  only be true if there were only two tribes in UG-the one which Mandago belongs to and the one Buzeki belongs to.  If there are more than two  tribes as in this case then the "other factors" must be at work but we are just too lazy to cite them because assigning tribal motives to political behavior is  something we Kenyans love and have a lot of experience with.  Its the only political analytical tool we put to use  and so goes the saying, "if a hammer is the only tool you have, everything looks like a nail and needs to be hammered".

Its amazing how the political analysis how UG will vote for its governor is purely tribal with no mention of even a single "other issues".  I do not buy it. Since its  a close race, can we fit in the so called "other factors" in the analysis?

Apparently this one breaks down to sub-tribes too.  Because Keiyo and Nandi are in play - I don't know which of them is Nandi or Keiyo, though I suspect Mandago is Keiyo.  Then the ancillary tribes play their roles to push one or the other over the top.  You could probably break it down further into clans.

There are always going to be some who care about track records, integrity and that kind of thing.  But how many seriously?

Yeah.  I mean it's possible.  I haven't denied that people care about "other factors".  It's just that in Kenya, they believe their tribal leader represents the best chance of dealing with these factors.  In fact, their tribal leader often decides what issues they should care about.  I share with you the idea that this is not fixed forever, even if it looks like there is little risk of that changing soon.  After all TZ seems to have overcome that kind of mindset.

[Kichwa]

Exactly. Then I guess UG represents the national politics where only luos and Kikuyus have a "homeboy" vying. The rest are therefore swayed by other issues.  Even if you throw in the tribes of the those vying for DP, you are still left with enough tribally indifferent voters to make "other factors" the decisive factor and not tribe as Pundit insists.

In UG, all non Kales are really indifferent to tribe because none of their home boy, to borrow your tautology, is vying.

There's an incumbent so the usual questions, has he delivered or does he appear to have delivered? Does he get along with UG electorate? Can't tell.

Mandago has tried to stoke ethnic flames by insinuating that min-Kales should not influence UG politics. This has made him look bad to all non-Kales
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[vooke]

Exactly. Then I guess UG represents the national politics where only luos and Kikuyus have a "homeboy" vying. The rest are therefore swayed by other issues.  Even if you throw in the tribes of the those vying for DP, you are still left with enough tribally indifferent voters to make "other factors" the decisive factor and not tribe as Pundit insists.

In UG, all non Kales are really indifferent to tribe because none of their home boy, to borrow your tautology, is vying.

There's an incumbent so the usual questions, has he delivered or does he appear to have delivered? Does he get along with UG electorate? Can't tell.

Mandago has tried to stoke ethnic flames by insinuating that min-Kales should not influence UG politics. This has made him look bad to all non-Kales

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Remember issues are as mundane as physical looks. With NASWA endorsing Mandago, it is Tribe again; the indifferent outsiders (Luos,Luhyas and Kisii's) sympathetic to NASWA will go for Mandago.

As Termie told you, their leaders are the ones who decide which issues to fuss about

[Kichwa]

My issue is with the political analyst who assigns the tribal factor by merely looking at a correlation and refusing to look beyond the tribal factor.

Question: Are luos voting for Raila just because Raila is a luo and nothing else?.  AND, If there is an issue, are they voting for Raila because Raila told them what the issue is?.   For example, we have the issues of unga, corruption, tribalism and employment this voting season.  Are you telling me those Kenyans who care about these issues and will be voting accordingly are only doing so because their tribal leaders identified these issues for them and that if left on their own they would not have identified these issues as a problem.

This is where I break rank with the mainstream Kenyan elite political analyst.  Tribe is the only political tool they use in their analsyis and I have found out that when a political analyst demonstrates an ability to identify the tribes or clans and his knowledge of  how they will vote, the more respect the person gets and is looked upon as a great political analyst. our own pundito comes to mind.

I have asked Kenyans in the village who have  very little education why they will vote for one candidate as opposed to the other and they have been able to tell me with clarity exactly why without using tribe or clan as a reason.  I have hard  things like I am voting against him because "he promised us water, roads, etc. then disappeared".  These are the same reasons I hear in the west. And to top it off, there is a very high number of incumbets voted out each elections except for the presidency which never had elections until 2002.  If Kibaki did not steal the 2007 elections, and if Ouru loses this elections, then it means Kenyans really pay a close attention to the performance to the incumbents.

Yeah.  I mean it's possible.  I haven't denied that people care about "other factors".  It's just that in Kenya, they believe their tribal leader represents the best chance of dealing with these factors. In fact, their tribal leader often decides what issues they should care about.  I share with you the idea that this is not fixed forever, even if it looks like there is little risk of that changing soon.  After all TZ seems to have overcome that kind of mindset.

[vooke]

My issue is with the political analyst like you who assigns the tribal factor by merely looking at a correlation and refusing to look beyond the tribal factors. Qestion, Are luos voting for Raila just because Raila is a luo and nothing else?.  OR, if there is an issue, are they voting for Raila because Raila told them what the issue is.  For example, we have the issues of unga, corruption, tribalism and employment this voting season.  Are you telling me those Kenyans who care for these issues and will be voting for them is because there tribal leaders identified these issues for them and told them these issues are important and that left on their own they would not have identified these issues as a problem.  These is where I break rank with the mainstream Kenyan elite political analyst.  Tribe is the only political tool they use in their analsyis and I have found out that when a political analyst demonstrates an ability to identify the tribes or clans and how they will vote, the more he is touted as a great political analyst.  I have asked Kenyans in the village with very little education why they will vote for one candidate as opposed to the other and they have been able to tell me exactly why without using tribe or clan.  I hear things like "he promised us water, roads, etc. then disappeared".  These are the same reasons I hear in the west. And to top it off, there is a very high number of incumbets voted out each elections except for the presidency which never had elections until 2002.  If Kibaki did not steal the 2007 elections, and if Ouru loses this elections, then it means Kenyans really pay a close attention to the performance to the incumbents.

Yeah.  I mean it's possible.  I haven't denied that people care about "other factors".  It's just that in Kenya, they believe their tribal leader represents the best chance of dealing with these factors. In fact, their tribal leader often decides what issues they should care about.  I share with you the idea that this is not fixed forever, even if it looks like there is little risk of that changing soon.  After all TZ seems to have overcome that kind of mindset.

Many if not all blacks voted for Obama in 2008 because he was black.
For his second bid, even when they could assess his performance,promises and failures which affected everyone equally, you will find blacks were more sympathetic to him at the poll purely on issues than the whites. Why was this? Race.

Take time and study opinion polls question on the direction Kenya is heading. Jubilee supporters/strongholds will not let down their own by trashing his performance as would NASWA supporters. Why ? Tribe.

Point is issues tend to be approached with tribal shades.

Even here, Omorlo is quite reluctant to concede that Babu rigged in 2007. This despite Kriegler fingering both sides of this.

[Kichwa]

Nonsense. That is NOT true. If Obama, as black as he is, ran as a conservative 'Clarence Thomas" Republican, he would not have received even 1/8 of the black votes he got. I would not have voted for him with all his Luo/Kenyan connections.  This is where you folks go wrong with the tribal vote in Kenya too. You look at voting pattern and see only the color or the tribe but ignore the underlying issues. You assume because I am a luo and I support Raila then it must be because of tribe. How come black people never voted for Carson the way they voted for Obama-wasn't he black enough?.
 
Many if not all blacks voted for Obama in 2008 because he was black.
For his second bid, even when they could assess his performance,promises and failures which affected everyone equally, you will find blacks were more sympathetic to him at the poll purely on issues than the whites. Why was this? Race.

Take time and study opinion polls question on the direction Kenya is heading. Jubilee supporters/strongholds will not let down their own by trashing his performance as would NASWA supporters. Why ? Tribe.

Point is issues tend to be approached with tribal shades.

Even here, Omorlo is quite reluctant to concede that Babu rigged in 2007. This despite Kriegler fingering both sides of this.
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[vooke]

Nonsense. That is NOT true. If Obama, as black as he is, ran as a conservative 'Clarence Thomas" Republican, he would not have received even 1/8 of the black votes he got. I would not have voted for him with all his Luo/Kenyan connections.  This is where you folks go wrong with the tribal vote in Kenya too. You look at voting pattern and see only the color or the tribe but ignore the underlying issues. You assume because I am a luo and I support Raila then it must be because of tribe. How come black people never voted for Carson the way they voted for Obama-wasn't he black enough?.
 
Many if not all blacks voted for Obama in 2008 because he was black.
For his second bid, even when they could assess his performance,promises and failures which affected everyone equally, you will find blacks were more sympathetic to him at the poll purely on issues than the whites. Why was this? Race.

Take time and study opinion polls question on the direction Kenya is heading. Jubilee supporters/strongholds will not let down their own by trashing his performance as would NASWA supporters. Why ? Tribe.

Point is issues tend to be approached with tribal shades.

Even here, Omorlo is quite reluctant to concede that Babu rigged in 2007. This despite Kriegler fingering both sides of this.

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Carson?
Again Termie educated you. His bid was stillborn as nobody likes wasting votes. Explains why Orengo performed dismally


As usual, you are intentionally obtuse when it comes to Tribe simply because now it has shattered your fantasies, jolted you out of lala-land into the harsh reality of NASWA thrashing.

You would love to fantasize NASWA as 'issue based' running against a tribal juggernaut Jubilee. But that's just ignorance; both are as tribal as the other. I know you have been brainwashed into thinking Jubilee is Kikuyu-Kale affair while NASWA is everyone else. Fact is, regardless of how many times you repeat a fantasy, it never replaces reality. You don't shape reality by ignorance.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I have asked Kenyans in the village who have  very little education why they will vote for one candidate as opposed to the other and they have been able to tell me with clarity exactly why without using tribe or clan as a reason.  I have hard  things like I am voting against him because "he promised us water, roads, etc. then disappeared".  These are the same reasons I hear in the west. And to top it off, there is a very high number of incumbets voted out each elections except for the presidency which never had elections until 2002.  If Kibaki did not steal the 2007 elections, and if Ouru loses this elections, then it means Kenyans really pay a close attention to the performance to the incumbents.

Yep.  They will tell you all that.  And when they go to vote, they still vote for different parties that just happen to be associated with their tribes.  The jubilant will complain about roads, water, etc and then vote Jubilant.  Same for the NASA supporter.  And it happens across all socioeconomic lines.  How do you explain that?

[MOON Ki]

There are so many people who will vote for NASA because they believed Ouru and Ruto are incompetent and corrupt.

Perhaps.    But one does not have to be a political analyst to safely predict that, for example, Raila will not get any votes worth counting in Central and Uhuru will not get any votes worth counting in Nyanza.  Why is that?  What sorts of "issues" make that a reasonably safe prediction? You have written that:

For example, we have the issues of unga, corruption, tribalism and employment this voting season.

How do those issues lead Luos to vote for Raila and Kikuyus to vote for Uhuru?

The reason people say that voting in Kenya is tribal is that for offices at a certain level (e.g., president), you can in any given elections ignore everything but tribe and still make a reasonably accurate prediction on how people will vote.   On the other hand, if you go solely by issues, you will almost certainly be wrong.   One may argue with the assignment of some numbers in Pundit's MOAS, but the general premise seems to reflect reality.

By the way, while writing about 2022 and beyond, on the "Homeboy" thread, you implicitly made an admission that I found astonishing, given your other views.   You wrote that:

The so called "other factors"  will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.

And until that "near future" arrives?

[MOON Ki]

And to top it off, there is a very high number of incumbets voted out each elections except for the presidency which never had elections until 2002. 

But that is not enough to lead to the conclusion that Kenyans care more about issues than about tribe/clan/etc.      One has to also look at the replacement: if an incumbent is getting replaced by someone from the same tribe/clan/etc., then of course tribe/clan/etc. cannot possibly matter.   

[Kichwa]

Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru? Actually this election is about this debate.  Jubilee believe they do not need an issue to win this election because they have the tribal numbers.  NASA on the other hand believe they will win this election because the issues.

There are so many people who will vote for NASA because they believed Ouru and Ruto are incompetent and corrupt.

Perhaps.    But one does not have to be a political analyst to safely predict that, for example, Raila will not get any votes worth counting in Central and Uhuru will not get any votes worth counting in Nyanza.  Why is that?  What sorts of "issues" make that a reasonably safe prediction? You have written that:

For example, we have the issues of unga, corruption, tribalism and employment this voting season.

How do those issues lead Luos to vote for Raila and Kikuyus to vote for Uhuru?

The reason people say that voting in Kenya is tribal is that for offices at a certain level (e.g., president), you can in any given elections ignore everything but tribe and still make a reasonably accurate prediction on how people will vote.   On the other hand, if you go solely by issues, you will almost certainly be wrong.   One may argue with the assignment of some numbers in Pundit's MOAS, but the general premise seems to reflect reality.

By the way, while writing about 2022 and beyond, on the "Homeboy" thread, you implicitly made an admission that I found astonishing, given your other views.   You wrote that:

The so called "other factors"  will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.

And until that "near future" arrives?

[MOON Ki]

Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?

Do you really think Kisiis are likely to mostly vote for Raila and Somalis likely to mostly vote for Uhuru?

[Kadame5]

Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?

Do you really think Kisiis are likely to mostly vote for Raila and Somalis likely to mostly vote for Uhuru?

I am Gusii and from everything I've heard, they certainly are. If anything, tribalism seems to me to be the primary reason those who reject Raila do so. There is a steadily shrinking segment of Gusiis that would never vote for a Luo come hell or high water. It is based on deeply help stereotypes that Luos are bad at business and investments (therefore cannot be trusted to manage major resources for the future), and that silliness about being uncircumcised. But like I said, from all I can tell, this is a steadily shrinking group. There are places in Gusii where you' risk violence if you went about talking s*** about Raila. I don't think the same applies for Uhuru or Jubilee anywhere.

[Kichwa]

 As far as I am concerned, this is more about the political analyst than the people who are actually voting. Neither you or I know exactly why an individual votes the way they do unless you ask them.  You have decided that they do so because of tribe and I disagree. The only way to really know is to ask each and every individual why they voted the way the do, otherwise I do not believe that your tribal explanation is the only one nor that it is superior to mine. It only shows that we approach this issue from different perspectives and experiences.

Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?

Do you think Kisiis are likely to vote for Raile and Somalis to vote for Uhuru?

[Kichwa]

  Raila's tribe has not changed since he started running but the tribal votes he gets have changed.  In 2007 Kalenjins voted to him for him to a man and in 2013 they voted against him to a man. Let us stop this stupid argument and admit that the so called tribal voting cannot explain how and why 80% of Kenyans vote the way they do. Its like insisting that you have the answer to how to lead a happy life.

Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?

Do you really think Kisiis are likely to mostly vote for Raila and Somalis likely to mostly vote for Uhuru?

I am Gusii and from everything I've heard, they certainly are. If anything, tribalism seems to me to be the primary reason those who reject Raila do so. There is a steadily shrinking segment of Gusiis that would never vote for a Luo come hell or high water.

[Kadame5]

I also don't believe Somalis will be voting mostly for Uhuru. Simalis are split 50/50.

[MOON Ki]

I am Gusii and from everything I've heard, they certainly are. If anything, tribalism seems to me to be the primary reason those who reject Raila do so. There is a steadily shrinking segment of Gusiis that would never vote for a Luo come hell or high water. It is based on deeply help stereotypes that Luos are bad at business and investments (therefore cannot be trusted to manage major resources for the future), and that silliness about being uncircumcised. But like I said, from all I can tell, this is a steadily shrinking group. There are places in Gusii where you' risk violence if you went about talking s*** about Raila. I don't think the same applies for Uhuru or Jubilee anywhere.

As I have explained at length on another thread, by "tribal voting", I mean tribe being a reliable guide in any given elections.    You have given a good example---that Gusiis, as a tribe, can be counted on to mostly vote for Raila.    I'm pretty sure the same thing applies to the Kamba, although I have no idea of their stance on "issues".     Likewise, I am fairly confident of something similar with respect to Kalenjins, Meru, Embu ... and Uhuru, although, again, I have no idea of where they stand on the "issues".

[Kadame5]

  Raila's tribe has not changed since he started running but the tribal votes he gets have changed.  In 2007 Kalenjins voted to him for him to a man and in 2013 they voted against him to a man. Let us stop this stupid argument and admit that the so called tribal voting cannot explain how and why 80% of Kenyans vote the way they do. Its like insisting that you have the answer to how to lead a happy life.

Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?

Do you really think Kisiis are likely to mostly vote for Raila and Somalis likely to mostly vote for Uhuru?

I am Gusii and from everything I've heard, they certainly are. If anything, tribalism seems to me to be the primary reason those who reject Raila do so. There is a steadily shrinking segment of Gusiis that would never vote for a Luo come hell or high water.

I'm not making that argument, Kichwa.

[Kichwa]

Ok. Kalonzo and Ruto running in 2022.  Give us the MOAS of how the tribes will vote.

As I have explained at length on another thread, by "tribal voting", I mean tribe being a reliable guide in any given elections.    You have given a good example---that Gusiis, as a tribe, can be counted on to mostly vote for Raila.    I'm pretty sure the same thing applies to the Kamba, although I have no idea of their stance on "issues".     Likewise, I am fairly confident of something similar with respect to Kalenjins, Meru, Embu ... and Uhuru, although, again, I have no idea of where they stand on the "issues".
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