USA elections

[Nefertiti]

Dems are quite desperate with the Trump fear-mongering. I don't get the feeling Harris is anywhere near as popular as say Obama. She's not even a good speaker. Before Biden went toast liberal media opinions were brutally honest about her ineptitude. So the blaster now is rather obviously dishonest.

Here is what will happen on day one of Trump’s presidency, according to Project 2025
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/09/trump-presidency-day-one-project-2024

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/09/trump-presidency-day-one-project-2024

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Trump won in 2016 very narrowly because most people stayed home thinking votes were enough to defeat Trump. Minorities, women, immigrants, and democratic coalitions are not dropping that ball again. Trump will lose big this time, even if Biden had stayed in the race. Trump is so deranged and unpopular among majority. I expect Harris to win 300+ electoral votes and, likely, over 10 million in popular vote. Following that, there will be a civil war in the GOP, and Trump will relaunch his campaign for 2028 in hopes to avoid jail time but will be unsuccessful as he will have to campaign from jail cells!

[Nefertiti]

RVHH the numbers don't agree. Harris is such a lightweight only the media machine is propping her. She is not even leading in the popular vote as usual with democrats. But swing states ako na shida - Trump is beating her all over - even Michigan and Wisconsin her best hope is to sneak in narrowly akin to Biden 2020.

Wacha hubris. Use numbers.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

RVHH, the numbers don't agree. Harris is such a lightweight only the media machine is propping her. She is not even leading in the popular vote as usual with democrats. But swing states ako na shida—Trump is beating her all over—even Michigan and Wisconsin Her best hope is to sneak in narrowly akin to Biden 2020.

Wacha hubris. Use numbers.

I like reality, not fiction. Harris is in dead heat with Trump in Texas and Florida. When Clinton/Biden was running, they were 10-20 points down. That tells you about the nationwide race. Internal communications in the Texas GOP show trouble; that is why Ken Paxton had to take action/intimidation. Texas Republicans are very stressed with data that showed 32% of white non-Hispanics live in Texas. They see majority hispanics moving to democratic sides and they are not having it it. A few weeks ago, Trump was 10% up, but since this issue, it is at a 3-4 point race. LULAC, for the first time, has endorsed Kamala Harris, and numbers moved almost in a week! I track US politics county to precinct by precint! Republicans are on the ropes!

[Nefertiti]

RVHH I am eager to see any credible poll where there is "dead heat" in Texas or Florida? Maybe one or two outliers... those are RED states. Contrary to liberal pipedreams - Florida is firmly red now - with both US senators, 20 out of 28 congressmen being Republican, topped up by a MAGA governor Ron DeSantis who won 2023 reelection by 60% landslide, plus a Rethug supermajority in both state legislatures.

Florida has trended ominously red from purple over the years.

Now Texas... is still firmly red. Dems have been praying Latino immigrants turn it blue but nope. Harris like Obama will get a worse walloping than Biden.

[Nefertiti]

This is very bad for Kamala Harris. She should be 3M clear of Trump - 50-45%, like Hillary in 2016. The EC is rigged to favor Rethugs.

Trump 48% vs 47 Harris in new poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4868094-harris-trump-neck-and-neck-nationally-in-new-poll/amp/

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

This is very bad for Kamala Harris. She should be 3M clear of Trump - 50-45%, like Hillary in 2016. The EC is rigged to favor Rethugs.

Trump 48% vs 47 Harris in new poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4868094-harris-trump-neck-and-neck-nationally-in-new-poll/amp/

I agree with that.  But national polls should not count for much, as Dems have found in a few recent elections.  It would be nice for a Democrat to win the EC and lose the popular vote.  The MAGA meltdown would be sweet to watch.

[Nefertiti]

This is very bad for Kamala Harris. She should be 3M clear of Trump - 50-45%, like Hillary in 2016. The EC is rigged to favor Rethugs.

Trump 48% vs 47 Harris in new poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4868094-harris-trump-neck-and-neck-nationally-in-new-poll/amp/

I agree with that.  But national polls should not count for much, as Dems have found in a few recent elections.  It would be nice for a Democrat to win the EC and lose the popular vote.  The MAGA meltdown would be sweet to watch.

Unlikely. The "Founding Fathers" did a number on us with the EC thing and the senate. Literally now the SCOTUS conservative supermajority is plain rigging, enabled by a minority POTUS and senate.

Without this flaw US politics would drift left like Europe. The US is a minority dictatorship.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I see it differently. Obama won big, including getting 60 senators, because 35–40% of minorities voted. If a candidate can bring Hispanics, Asians, and blacks to the polls, he/she wins big. For that to happen, Democrats need to front minority candidates at the top of the ticket and will run circles all day. White conservatives vote 60-70% most of the time. If monorities were to hit such voting numbers, Republicans would be getting defeated on presidential politics every time.
This is the study among other studies I have looked at. In 2020, Biden won despite Black vote turnout at 38-40%. If Kamala can take it to 45%, Trump will see dust. White voter turnout is 55-60%. If minorities can vote in usch numbers, I don't see winning paths for republicans going forward. The DNC looked at the numbers and that is why they chose  Kamala Harris quick lest another White Guy that would drag minority vote to 30-40% range risking losing to Trump by a whisker like in 2016. Obama too it up by 5-10%, and it changed everything! There are many studies in battleground states, but this NC midterm study is more detailed!
https://democracync.org/research/2022-voter-turnout-report/

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

This is very bad for Kamala Harris. She should be 3M clear of Trump - 50-45%, like Hillary in 2016. The EC is rigged to favor Rethugs.

Trump 48% vs 47 Harris in new poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4868094-harris-trump-neck-and-neck-nationally-in-new-poll/amp/

I agree with that.  But national polls should not count for much, as Dems have found in a few recent elections.  It would be nice for a Democrat to win the EC and lose the popular vote.  The MAGA meltdown would be sweet to watch.

Unlikely. The "Founding Fathers" did a number on us with the EC thing and the senate. Literally now the SCOTUS conservative supermajority is plain rigging, enabled by a minority POTUS and senate.

Without this flaw US politics would drift left like Europe. The US is a minority dictatorship.

I think it's more a minority veto as opposed to dictatorship.  Granted, that was never the original intention.  If Republicans get a taste of losing while winning the popular vote, they will be open to getting rid of the EC.  They are that predictable.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I see it differently. Obama won big, including getting 60 senators, because 35–40% of minorities voted. If a candidate can bring Hispanics, Asians, and blacks to the polls, he/she wins big. For that to happen, Democrats need to front minority candidates at the top of the ticket and will run circles all day. White conservatives vote 60-70% most of the time. If monorities were to hit such voting numbers, Republicans would be getting defeated on presidential politics every time.
This is the study among other studies I have looked at. In 2020, Biden won despite Black vote turnout at 38-40%. If Kamala can take it to 45%, Trump will see dust. White voter turnout is 55-60%. If minorities can vote in usch numbers, I don't see winning paths for republicans going forward. The DNC looked at the numbers and that is why they chose  Kamala Harris quick lest another White Guy that would drag minority vote to 30-40% range risking losing to Trump by a whisker like in 2016. Obama too it up by 5-10%, and it changed everything! There are many studies in battleground states, but this NC midterm study is more detailed!
https://democracync.org/research/2022-voter-turnout-report/

I believe the nail in Hillary's coffin was a failure to excite the black votes in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I see it differently. Obama won big, including getting 60 senators, because 35–40% of minorities voted. If a candidate can bring Hispanics, Asians, and blacks to the polls, he/she wins big. For that to happen, Democrats need to front minority candidates at the top of the ticket and will run circles all day. White conservatives vote 60-70% most of the time. If monorities were to hit such voting numbers, Republicans would be getting defeated on presidential politics every time.
This is the study among other studies I have looked at. In 2020, Biden won despite Black vote turnout at 38-40%. If Kamala can take it to 45%, Trump will see dust. White voter turnout is 55-60%. If minorities can vote in usch numbers, I don't see winning paths for republicans going forward. The DNC looked at the numbers and that is why they chose  Kamala Harris quick lest another White Guy that would drag minority vote to 30-40% range risking losing to Trump by a whisker like in 2016. Obama too it up by 5-10%, and it changed everything! There are many studies in battleground states, but this NC midterm study is more detailed!
https://democracync.org/research/2022-voter-turnout-report/

I believe the nail in Hillary's coffin was a failure to excite the black votes in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee.

Yep that is all it took for Trump to pull a small win, losing millions in popular vote. Philadelphia Mayor, who is a black woman, is not having it this time, same with Milwaukee, Detroit, Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, Atlanta, and most mayors in vote-rich battleground states and cities. If Trump wins PA, which is unlikely, he still have to win NC, GA, AZ, and NV. Harris has more paths thatn Trump. Anyway, forget pundit and polls, Allan's 13 keys to White House is the gold standard. The decision came in and is irrefutable! Harris is the 47th!

[Nefertiti]

My feeling is Kamala doesn't excite people. Have you seen any inspiring speeches? What will make turnout better than Hillary's?

[Nefertiti]

I hope Kamala is prepping for the debate properly. She's being baited that Trump is going to be unhinged. Debate is an equalizer which takes away the Dem media advantage, so it's actually good for Trump. If she performs dismally like Biden she will be toast.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

My feeling is Kamala doesn't excite people. Have you seen any inspiring speeches? What will make turnout better than Hillary's?

Her fund raising would seem to suggest otherwise.  She does not have soaring oratory, though she seems be running a disciplined campaign.  Speeches only count for so much in a polarized environment.  Trump in any other context would correctly be dismissed as off his rocker, but that doesn't matter to an America First moron.

I hope Kamala is prepping for the debate properly. She's being baited that Trump is going to be unhinged. Debate is an equalizer which takes away the Dem media advantage, so it's actually good for Trump. If she performs dismally like Biden she will be toast.

I think she should do this one debate, and no more.  He needs it more than she does.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I hope Kamala is preparing for the debate properly. She's being baited that Trump is going to be unhinged. Debate is an equalizer, which takes away the Dem media advantage, so it's actually good for Trump. If she performs dismally like Biden, she will be toast.

I guess you are not well versed in American politics. Remember the red wave in 2018, 2020, and 2022 that never came? Trump's unpopularity is the cause. In 2024, he is toast big time. I looked at PA numbers, and Democrats will win again. 1992 it went Democrat (Clinton), 1996 Democrat (Clinton), 2000 (Gore), democrat, 2004 (Kerry), Democrat, 2008 (Obama, Democrat, 2012 (Obama), democrat, 2016 (Trump very narrowly)  ( he won 48.2 while Democrat Hillary got 47.5), 2020, Democrat Biden won. So in 2024 there is no way Harris will lose PA, I think she will do Kerry, or Biden numbers at worse, or Obama blowout at best. All pundits have agreed that if Trump lose PA, he has no chance of winning unless he wins, NC, GA, AZ, NV, and one blue state like Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump is toast folks, no kidding!

[Nefertiti]

I hope Kamala is preparing for the debate properly. She's being baited that Trump is going to be unhinged. Debate is an equalizer, which takes away the Dem media advantage, so it's actually good for Trump. If she performs dismally like Biden, she will be toast.

I guess you are not well versed in American politics. Remember the red wave in 2018, 2020, and 2022 that never came? Trump's unpopularity is the cause. In 2024, he is toast big time. I looked at PA numbers, and Democrats will win again. 1992 it went Democrat (Clinton), 1996 Democrat (Clinton), 2000 (Gore), democrat, 2004 (Kerry), Democrat, 2008 (Obama, Democrat, 2012 (Obama), democrat, 2016 (Trump very narrowly)  ( he won 48.2 while Democrat Hillary got 47.5), 2020, Democrat Biden won. So in 2024 there is no way Harris will lose PA, I think she will do Kerry, or Biden numbers at worse, or Obama blowout at best. All pundits have agreed that if Trump lose PA, he has no chance of winning unless he wins, NC, GA, AZ, NV, and one blue state like Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump is toast folks, no kidding!

Trump is leading in all those states - NC, GA, AZ, NV - and they are tied in PA.

[Nefertiti]

My feeling is Kamala doesn't excite people. Have you seen any inspiring speeches? What will make turnout better than Hillary's?

Her fund raising would seem to suggest otherwise.  She does not have soaring oratory, though she seems be running a disciplined campaign.  Speeches only count for so much in a polarized environment.  Trump in any other context would correctly be dismissed as off his rocker, but that doesn't matter to an America First moron.

We will see tonight.

Kamala's actual debate and campaign record is catastrophic - she polled 2% in the Dem primaries in 2020. She was mkia and quit before any ballots were cast. Before Biden imploded in July - she was widely regarded as one of the most unpopular VPs in history... by the MSM now praising her. It used to be an open question whether Biden would keep her in round 2.

Now she did not even win any primary. She is a product of luck nothing else. Trump is the opposite - he crashed all his opponents. Objectively Trump is a much better candidate than her.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I hope Kamala is preparing for the debate properly. She's being baited that Trump is going to be unhinged. Debate is an equalizer, which takes away the Dem media advantage, so it's actually good for Trump. If she performs dismally like Biden, she will be toast.

I guess you are not well versed in American politics. Remember the red wave in 2018, 2020, and 2022 that never came? Trump's unpopularity is the cause. In 2024, he is toast big time. I looked at PA numbers, and Democrats will win again. 1992 it went Democrat (Clinton), 1996 Democrat (Clinton), 2000 (Gore), democrat, 2004 (Kerry), Democrat, 2008 (Obama, Democrat, 2012 (Obama), democrat, 2016 (Trump very narrowly)  ( he won 48.2 while Democrat Hillary got 47.5), 2020, Democrat Biden won. So in 2024 there is no way Harris will lose PA, I think she will do Kerry, or Biden numbers at worse, or Obama blowout at best. All pundits have agreed that if Trump lose PA, he has no chance of winning unless he wins, NC, GA, AZ, NV, and one blue state like Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump is toast folks, no kidding!

Trump is leading in all those states - NC, GA, AZ, NV - and they are tied in PA.

They are within the margin of error in all of them.  She is starting to run away with MI and WI.  If she wins MI, WI and PA, she does need any of the bold ones.

https://www.270towin.com

[Nefertiti]

I hope Kamala is preparing for the debate properly. She's being baited that Trump is going to be unhinged. Debate is an equalizer, which takes away the Dem media advantage, so it's actually good for Trump. If she performs dismally like Biden, she will be toast.

I guess you are not well versed in American politics. Remember the red wave in 2018, 2020, and 2022 that never came? Trump's unpopularity is the cause. In 2024, he is toast big time. I looked at PA numbers, and Democrats will win again. 1992 it went Democrat (Clinton), 1996 Democrat (Clinton), 2000 (Gore), democrat, 2004 (Kerry), Democrat, 2008 (Obama, Democrat, 2012 (Obama), democrat, 2016 (Trump very narrowly)  ( he won 48.2 while Democrat Hillary got 47.5), 2020, Democrat Biden won. So in 2024 there is no way Harris will lose PA, I think she will do Kerry, or Biden numbers at worse, or Obama blowout at best. All pundits have agreed that if Trump lose PA, he has no chance of winning unless he wins, NC, GA, AZ, NV, and one blue state like Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump is toast folks, no kidding!

Trump is leading in all those states - NC, GA, AZ, NV - and they are tied in PA.

They are within the margin of error in all of them.  She is starting to run away with MI and WI.  If she wins MI, WI and PA, she does need any of the bold ones.

https://www.270towin.com

The election is a toss up. It wouldn't be if the Dems had not shielded Biden's meltdown for 3 years and allowed a proper contest. Kamala would in all likelihood not be the candidate.

She is only marginally better than senile Joe.