Yes Ruto has managed to starve off combined Raila-Uhuru assault the last five years through hard-nosed grassroot campaigns.
Raila formulae has always been to create sort of national euphoria like NARC of 2002 - that gives the momentum for statehouse - that is why he's been desperately trying jump-start his presidential bid 5 times now - but he has NOT gained that momentum. It's been Kasarani or kibera or Jacarada - where Luo slum dwellers converge - then run for Kisumu - and then it's fizzle out - sometimes due to health reasons.
Let see if Kalonzo momentum will be sustained - maybe Uhuru & Kalonzo will finally engage fully considering Raila health & age doesn't allow him for gruelling duel with Ruto - and of course almost every rally - Raila and his crew will be subtracting votes with careless speeches. I expect their new exuberance to lead them to make many fau-pauxes as they are now convinced they have it wrapped.
Ruto approach is to comb villages - to do the hardwork - to go places no one has gone to for presidential campaigns - and that submarine sawa him improve western in 2017 from 4 percent (actually zero if you factor it's kalenjin/kikuyu diaspora) to nearly 30 percent in 2017 - same with Gusii and Coast - gaining Jubilee almost 5 percent of the national vote-> more than 2013.
Ultimately the political formation remain as of 2013 & 2017 - and it's really the question of whether Raila new gains can overturn Ruto new gains in such a manner to bridge the 10 percent gap of 2017 (ignore the rigging claims - nobody has impugned the figures - just the processes). True, hao watu hawananga discipline. They use pomp and spectacle to wow supporters but don't do followup when it matters. Elections are not just about spectacle at rallies and social media, they are also about grassroots mobilisation. I think that's how in 2017 Jubilee performed better in NASA areas like Western because Ruto left nothing to chance. This election will be fought on a polling station basis, and all those in Azimio have no one who can mount such an operation. Kazi ni kubweka kwa TV then delude themselves ati wameshinda. No wonder they all seem mortally afraid of Ruto. Just look at Kiambaa, Uhuru pulled all stops by fielding the stronger candidate and using "system" to intimidate UDAs voters. In the end, UDA won because of how they mobilised their people to vote, it would all have been too easy for a voter to stay home especially due to police and system presence.
Azimio cannot replicate that system countrywide, labda a few strongholds. Huku kwingine Ruto will wipe the floor with them.
Topic: Final MOASS - Ruto to beat Raila by about a million votes (52-53) versus (46-47) (Read 3911 times)