Final MOASS - Ruto to beat Raila by about a million votes (52-53) versus (46-47)

[RV Pundit]

Sound like you said similar things in 2013 and 2017 - only to end up crying.
I dont carelessly make numbers.
I meticously watch all sort of indicators including opinion polls and of course my 30yr experience reading kenya politics
I had estimated Uhuru would dent the figures with Sagana and all that - now evidence suggest - nope.
Uhuru is likely to produce the opposite effect - everytime he speak against Ruto in mt kenya - he seem to lose support.
Empirical data from opinion polls - are showing Ruto numbers going up post sagana

If you check my numbers are normally very "harsh" on Ruto.
In fact I have always understimated Jubilee - in 2013/2017 - numbers - because I am acutely aware of my "confirmation bias"
So generally take these numbers as worse case scenario for Ruto....Ruto likely to do 1-2 percent better nationally.

In GEMA for example in Meru - Ruto is at 55 percent - that is a lot of faith I am giving AZIMIO
In Kiambu (big one) - Ruto is at 65 percent.
Remember those two are big movers in GEMA -  combined 2 million votes or nearly half of GEMA.
Even if I reduce the others by 10 percent - it wont result into much change.
Nyeri to tharaka to laikipis - average county pop is about 300-400K each - with turnout expected to be low - 10% in a county is very tiny - 30,000 votes.
I challenge you to get an excel - and do your maths - and share with me a realistic path of Raila presidency - doesnt exist.

In short - every number I have carefully considered enough to call this election - FINAL MOAS

And if I am wrong - it's very very minor - and is likely an overcompensation for my own confirmation bias.

It's a comedy of errors.

Once it became clear Kalonzo is not running alone as hoped & prayed... Ruto in Gema was promptly buffed to 75% to maintain the narrative. Note Ruto is still at 30+ in Ukambani    - literally Azimio full-house. Now imagine if in the next few days half Wiper MPs defected to UDA as happened in Luhya after earthquake.. Ruto would promptly be declared 65% winner.

Finally in case the numbers don't add up the warriors are ready.

[Nowayhaha]

Ruto will win by 56% to Railas 43-42%.

[audacityofhope]

......
I dont carelessly make numbers.
.....

A few minutes later the low guy posts as below ....

Ruto will win by 56% to Railas 43-42%.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto will win by 56% to Railas 43-42%.

Share you maths

[Nowayhaha]

comimg from a Dimwit.

......
I dont carelessly make numbers.
.....

A few minutes later the low guy posts as below ....

Ruto will win by 56% to Railas 43-42%.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.

[Dear Mami]

Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.

No third force to speak of. With OKA dead, MaDVD and Kaloi in the two camps, there's nothing like round two. This thing ends on August 9th, regardless of who is declared victor. Barring, of course, another Magara 2.0 nullification.

[RV Pundit]

Munya become DP; Raila get more Merus; Raila lose Kamba votes!
It that simple.
2022 imeisha.
Unless BBI comeback - then we are talking new dynamics.

Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Munya become DP; Raila get more Merus; Raila lose Kamba votes!
It that simple.
2022 imeisha.
Unless BBI comeback - then we are talking new dynamics.

Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.

Thus begs the question how many votes does kalonzo control in ukambani vs Ngilu,Kiivutha and Mutua if we can know this then am sure we can call it here and then

[Dear Mami]

BBI issue:

Now, I never bothered to watch the SCOK proceedings, but someone who did told me the line of questioning by the judges strongly indicated they would knock down a bunch of the arguments that carried the day in the lower courts.

There's no way to be sure, but my guess is IF they keep BBI knocked out, it will be on the basis of the technical/Procedural questions of some step or other not have been followed.

But on the substantive arguments, I really don't expect them to uphold these two things that carried the day in the lower courts:
a) The idea that the political class, including the president, are somehow barred by the constitution from participation in the popular initiative
b) That the constitution cannot be wholly amended (Basic structure doctrine).

PS: It was Ahmednassir who started this discussion about BBI like two/three weeks ago when he claimed that he had info that Uhuru already knew the court's decision and that positions were already being negotiated on the basis of said decision. I'm surprised nipate missed it.

Of course, this fella may have just been talking from nothing, just to cause a stir on Twitter and nothing more. Who knows? If it was true, Ruto camp would prolly already be talking about it, so it's likely Ahmednassir was just lollygagging on Twitter.
 

[RV Pundit]

Kambas are twice Merus.
Therefore even weaken Kalonzo is better than Munya.
Kalonzo can easily deliver 50 percent of Kambas - which equal to 100 percent of Merus.
Munya has mountain to climb selling Raila even in Meru - even as DPORK.
Unless we get BBI - we are

Thus begs the question how many votes does kalonzo control in ukambani vs Ngilu,Kiivutha and Mutua if we can know this then am sure we can call it here and then

[RV Pundit]

It a complex case
Initially the lower courts dealt with 17-20 issues.
It appears some were conceded - and only 7 issues were appealed at supreme court.
Therefore BBI recovery for me is out of question - because stuff like publishing in Kiswahili and English cannot be cured.
Or IEBC flouting their own rules & regulation - and using a weekend to validate signatures.
Or abuse of office by using gov funds to bulldoze BBI.

Now when it come to supreme court - they will most likely deal with 7 legal/weight issues  - and leave the mundane stuff to be fixed by lower courts.

The weight issues include of course
1) Basic structure
2) What is popular initiative
.....bla de bla

So yes I think Ahmednassir has misgiving about supreme court.
But it would take totally compromised SCORK to overtun the work of 13 superior court judges.

BBI issue:

Now, I never bothered to watch the SCOK proceedings, but someone who did told me the line of questioning by the judges strongly indicated they would knock down a bunch of the arguments that carried the day in the lower courts.

There's no way to be sure, but my guess is IF they keep BBI knocked out, it will be on the basis of the technical/Procedural questions of some step or other not have been followed.

But on the substantive arguments, I really don't expect them to uphold these two things that carried the day in the lower courts:
a) The idea that the political class, including the president, are somehow barred by the constitution from participation in the popular initiative
b) That the constitution cannot be wholly amended.

PS: It was Ahmednassir who started this discussion about BBI like two/three weeks ago when he claimed that he had info that Uhuru already knew the court's decision and that positions were already being negotiated on the basis of said decision. I'm surprised nipate missed it.

Of course, this fella may have just been talking from nothing, just to cause a stir on Twitter and nothing more. Who knows? If it was true, Ruto camp would prolly already be talking about it, so it's likely Ahmednassir was just lollygagging on Twitter.
 

[RV Pundit]

[Njuri Ncheke]

Kambas are twice Merus.
Therefore even weaken Kalonzo is better than Munya.
Kalonzo can easily deliver 50 percent of Kambas - which equal to 100 percent of Merus.
Munya has mountain to climb selling Raila even in Meru - even as DPORK.
Unless we get BBI - we are

Thus begs the question how many votes does kalonzo control in ukambani vs Ngilu,Kiivutha and Mutua if we can know this then am sure we can call it here and then

True

[Njuri Ncheke]

Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.

No third force to speak of. With OKA dead, MaDVD and Kaloi in the two camps, there's nothing like round two. This thing ends on August 9th, regardless of who is declared victor. Barring, of course, another Magara 2.0 nullification.

The rigging margin is the 3rd force,and thats why Ruto has to nick it first round which is very possible compared with baba.
All this hullabaloo of Azimio bringing everyone onboard is a disguise for rigging

[Dear Mami]

Merus will decide this election simple. With Munya as DP it goes to second round, without Munya then Ruto will win close to what pundit has said.

No third force to speak of. With OKA dead, MaDVD and Kaloi in the two camps, there's nothing like round two. This thing ends on August 9th, regardless of who is declared victor. Barring, of course, another Magara 2.0 nullification.

The rigging margin is the 3rd force,and thats why Ruto has to nick it first round which is very possible compared with baba.
All this hullabaloo of Azimio bringing everyone onboard is a disguise for rigging

Ok. But my point is, rigging or no rigging, there will be no second round because it's mathematically impossible.

If Raila wins clean or Uhuru rigs him in, then he'll have 50% plus 1 first round. If Ruto wins with unriggable margin or any margin, he'll have 50% plus 1.

Without a serious third party spoiler, it just doesn't make sense to imagine round two.

The only way round two becomes possible is if:
1) Either Kaloi/MaDVD/both pull out of either coalition and play(s) spoiler. Then Raila/Ruto may win with like 49% and be forced to go to round two.
2) There's a presidential election petition and SCOK nullifies round one.

Barring these two scenarios, there's nothing like round two.

[Nefertiti]

Yup, no round 2. Everyone has already picked sides except maybe Justin Muturi.

Ok. But my point is, rigging or no rigging, there will be no second round because it's mathematically impossible.

If Raila wins clean or Uhuru rigs him in, then he'll have 50% plus 1 first round. If Ruto wins with unriggable margin or any margin, he'll have 50% plus 1.

Without a serious third party spoiler, it just doesn't make sense to imagine round two.

The only way round two becomes possible is if:
1) Either Kaloi/MaDVD/both pull out of either coalition and play(s) spoiler. Then Raila/Ruto may win with like 49% and be forced to go to round two.
2) There's a presidential election petition and SCOK nullifies round one.

Barring these two scenarios, there's nothing like round two.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Baba will be beaten like a burukenge and I think he knows this,I was shocked today when I came across one of his most ardent supporters today was cursing him for being used by gatheca,I dare say even 10% of luos will vote for Ruto.
Ruto is set for pork regardless of whom he picks as running mate,Ruto is appearing straight forward and honest compared to his main competitor gatheca,am loving how this is shaping to be Uhuru vs Ruto, people saying gatheca is extending his rule. Kenyatta's lazima wavalie kinyasa come 10th August 22.

[RV Pundit]

Last hurdle is running mate nominee.
Otherwise everything so far aligning for Ruto.
He took a calculated gamble in free and fair nomination and it paid off. Absolutely brilliant stuff.
Proved his bottom up push was serious and highlighted the other side attempts to upstage kenyan public and decide stuff.
I thought Uhuru would comeback when we have nomination fallout like 2017 (Kabogo & team of independents) but nope.
Uhuru has to wait for re-entry when they pick DPORK - and he takes them to GEMA.
Meanwhile it will be teeth gnashing in ukambani.

Raila has to deal wit competing interest of GEMA and Kamba nation - that biggest banana slip - that could see him drop from 47 (Now 45 percent in my view) percent back to 38 percent as Kamba likely to pull out or protest it.

Kwa Luhyas - he is taking a lot of water now - Tim is almost last straw that broke the camel back. He might be able to string propaganda when maDVD is not picked - but I believe maDVD team have made it clear to Luhyas - that Ruto never promised it.

End of day - Ruto reliability wins - because leaders and voters do not trust KINYONGA like Kalonzo or Raila or Uhuru.

People want to sleep knowing same person will turn up every day.

Kalonzo and Raila - too unpredictable - add Martha - THAT IS  - I am reserving my laughter until they pick Martha.

Baba will be beaten like a burukenge and I think he knows this,I was shocked today when I came across one of his most ardent supporters today was cursing him for being used by gathe
ca,I dare say even 10% of luos will vote for Ruto.
Ruto is set for pork regardless of whom he picks as running mate,Ruto is appearing straight forward and honest compared to his main competitor gatheca,am loving how this is shaping to be Uhuru vs Ruto, people saying gatheca is extending his rule. Kenyatta's lazima wavalie kinyasa come 10th August 22.