You hate the truth.
My prediction is simple.
If Ruto is rigged out and the supreme court doesnt annual it.
It's very likely (99 percent) Kalenjin will go to war.
They will attack other tribes..kick them out rv and attempt possibly a secession.
From there it really depend...it could be resolved with peace deal quickly
Or it could go full blown civil war if the security forces split.
If Uhuru goes hard with security forces - Kalenjin in security sector will mutiny - and split.
After the split - then it going to be dog war.
Kenya has issues...it ranked a FRAGILE NATIONS.
Lots of tribes have grievances.
Are Kalenjin afraid of ICC. NOPE. They know Ruto doesnt need to get involved.
Assume Raila is rigged in....Will kalenjin take Uhuru betrayal and Raila presidency...NOT EASILY
Luos are cowards...they can take shiet for many years...Kalenjin are not..or at least do not perceive them to be one.
The Shifta war was a good or bad thing for Kenya?
I'm just trying to understand you because it seems like you're obsessed with anything that hints, no matter how indirectly, at a breakup of Kenya.
Is Kenya, the country as we know it now, only something to be enjoyed when it's convenient? Once power has slipped away from one's tribal hero, is it ok to start chasing and magnifying anything that suggests civil war?