Tigray taking over Ethiopia

[vooke]

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Time to talk was last year. It's time for Nobel Laurate to plan a orderly exit from power. He caused it by refusing to hold election on the pretext of COVID-19. When Tigrays decided hold election as scheduled - he declared war.

The stupid Abiy War almost at most inopportune time of covid economic shocks - and a war that was really stupid in many ways - Tigrays having been kicked out of power - had retreated to their regions and were happy to do their own stuff - why FOLLOW and KILL THEM in their little corner? They had no numbers to influence politics.

Ethiopia future is more federalism - the country is too unwieldly to be managed from Adis Ababa - give each of the regions even greater autonomy - and leave Ethiopia federal gov as just symbol of national unity -otherwise it will be long civil war - and instability as secretarian tribal secession wars take over.

Abiy like South Sudan Salva Kiir are two morons who have dragged their country down. He got Nobel for making peace with Eritrea - little did people realize he was planning a joint Eritrea and Ethiopia massacre of the Tigrayans.

Kenya should learn from Ethiopia. As we approach 2022 -  we similarly could melt into a civil war if Uhuru plays games with Ruto. Nonsense like I have the army so I can do as please do not work all the time - Ethiopia has 1 million armed forces - more tanks than kenya can imagine - they are being taken prisoners of war in their thousands daily.

He is a an Amhara imperialist, those guys believe in centrally ruled Amhara dominated state subjugating other ethnic groups. Oromos have the biggest grievance. A loose federation is the best solution. For all African states but egos and the temptation to covet other peoples resources overwhelms peoples' judgement.

[Georgesoros]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ending-ethiopias-trade-status-us-weighs-sanctions-genocide/story?id=80928248

Ethiopians need jobs and this makes things worse. I hope USA is using this as a tactic.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Time to talk was last year. It's time for Nobel Laurate to plan a orderly exit from power. He caused it by refusing to hold election on the pretext of COVID-19. When Tigrays decided hold election as scheduled - he declared war.

The stupid Abiy War almost at most inopportune time of covid economic shocks - and a war that was really stupid in many ways - Tigrays having been kicked out of power - had retreated to their regions and were happy to do their own stuff - why FOLLOW and KILL THEM in their little corner? They had no numbers to influence politics.

Ethiopia future is more federalism - the country is too unwieldly to be managed from Adis Ababa - give each of the regions even greater autonomy - and leave Ethiopia federal gov as just symbol of national unity -otherwise it will be long civil war - and instability as secretarian tribal secession wars take over.

Abiy like South Sudan Salva Kiir are two morons who have dragged their country down. He got Nobel for making peace with Eritrea - little did people realize he was planning a joint Eritrea and Ethiopia massacre of the Tigrayans.

Kenya should learn from Ethiopia. As we approach 2022 -  we similarly could melt into a civil war if Uhuru plays games with Ruto. Nonsense like I have the army so I can do as please do not work all the time - Ethiopia has 1 million armed forces - more tanks than kenya can imagine - they are being taken prisoners of war in their thousands daily.

He is a an Amhara imperialist, those guys believe in centrally ruled Amhara dominated state subjugating other ethnic groups. Oromos have the biggest grievance. A loose federation is the best solution. For all African states but egos and the temptation to covet other peoples resources overwhelms peoples' judgement.

Abiy is not Amharic.  He is Oromo.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Abiy seems to have lost control of the army, or portions of it.  They are not engaging; they either surrender or just leave their posts - echos of Afghans after US withdrawal.  I wouldn't be surprised if the guy is overthrown in a coup.

Per Foregn Policy article I read. Tigrayans still have the army parked with their generals. I know Abiy first order was to fire and forcibly retire these generals. I would think that these generals would still have influence in the army. As for now either the army is incompetent or the have decided not fight. It could be both they are incompetent and have decided not fight to protect Abiy.

[Georgesoros]

Abiy seems to have lost control of the army, or portions of it.  They are not engaging; they either surrender or just leave their posts - echos of Afghans after US withdrawal.  I wouldn't be surprised if the guy is overthrown in a coup.

He is AFRICA'S embarrassment. He is being propped by China and Russia while the ground around him sinks

[KenyanPlato]

Abiy seems to have lost control of the army, or portions of it.  They are not engaging; they either surrender or just leave their posts - echos of Afghans after US withdrawal.  I wouldn't be surprised if the guy is overthrown in a coup.

He is AFRICA'S embarrassment. He is being propped by China and Russia while the ground around him sinks

He Miscalculated. He is like kibaki after in regenede on Mou. He was put in power to offer a transition but decided he wanted to consolidate power for himself. Now he about to lose it and in the process a lot of people will get hurt.

The guy is a kalonzo type of politician. Even Kalonzo would have realized that he is front of Tigrayans and just be a watermelon. All Abiy had to do is manage a transition to federalism

[Njuri Ncheke]

Ethiopia is a total embarrassment to Afticans,I even didn't want to talk about it, years of consistent development wiped out in a single year. True Abiy miscaculated but TPLF also is to blame everyone is to blame in Ethiopia I just realized their tribalism is worse than Kenya by far,Oromos,Tigrays,Amhara hate each other worse than Luos,Kikuyus and Kalenjin. I don't see any military solution to this war unless a peaceful settlement otherwise Ethiopia will disintegrate to tribal states.

[gout]

It is all about the naivete and stupidity of Abiy. Just like you see ufool running around endangering everyone in Kenya.

Kenya has around 30,000 soldiers. I see people joking about anga jeshi. Most likely even Addis has been lying about 1 million army and the TPD generals know it as they are the ones who have been spinning the shitty propaganda.

It makes no sense that Kenya with 30K has a military spending of a $1 billion while Ethiopia spends $0.5 billion.

The pudding is rotten despite its rosy colours. Even China has no say as industrial towns of Dessie Kombucha fall where we expect they have serious investments.

[RV Pundit]

We spoke about these things a year a go..senseless war by Abiy and Ethiopia to teach Tigrayan minority lesson..now their Waterloo.I could not imagine Ethiopia would collapse this soon.Oromo supporting Tigrayan is new curve ball.Abiy is Amhara mixed with oromo https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=9236.0

I didn't think Tigrayans are such good fighters. I thought they would be disorganized like oromos.
You were right on this from the get go.
Like you said there was no need for Ethiopia to concentrate on the past. The future is what matters and historical injustices should just be acknowledged and left at that

[KenyanPlato]

Amahara are tribal supremacists. They are the kind of Ethiopians you encounter that want nothing to do with dark africans or other africans. Did Haile sailasela come from this ethnic group? Years of dictatorship have made tribalism to be so entrenched in eithiopia. The only way out is Federalism. Give these groups autonomy and negotiate some some of the issues. What I understand is trigrayans control the economy and land. They made sure that during their rule every business they got a cut of about 20% and they took land from Amahara and everyone else they could. It is a mess over there

[RV Pundit]

yes having ruled ethiopia for centuries; they resent anyone else running ethiopia.

Amahara are tribal supremacists. They are the kind of Ethiopians you encounter that want nothing to do with dark africans or other africans. Did Haile sailasela come from this ethnic group? Years of dictatorship have made tribalism to be so entrenched in eithiopia. The only way out is Federalism. Give these groups autonomy and negotiate some some of the issues. What I understand is trigrayans control the economy and land. They made sure that during their rule every business they got a cut of about 20% and they took land from Amahara and everyone else they could. It is a mess over there

[Njuri Ncheke]

The problem is this time around no entity has the ability to take over Ethiopia,my analysis is TPLF can't mount a fight to take addis alone actually from scrutinising the areas  they have taken it appears they are boxed in as they only occupy a narrow corridor if the Ethiopian army is cohesive they can easily cause massive casualties fo the Tigray if the counter attack. Think of it this way dessie and kombolcha would be like occupying eldoret and nakuru highway strip but with all the surrounding land under the government forces. Anywas lets wait and see,unless other groups emerge or army abandons Abiy this will be along drawn out fight.

[RV Pundit]

When you're fighting with someone - and they choke your neck - it doesnt matter if rest of your body is intact. This why some areas are strategic. For example in Kenya - once you block the main highway (Mombasa-Malaba) - you essentially choke Kenya and the entire region. Without critical supplies coming in including fuel - what will you fight with?

Abbiy is gone. The question is whether Tigrays and others will manage to hold the center - or it will become another somali - a long drawn civil war as each region resort to crude form of federalism.

I think Tigray having run Ethiopia for last 30yrs have the experience to steady the ship, make concession especially with Oromos (who own Adis Ababa) - and that is it - somalis/southern nations do not really matter. As long as Oromo and Amharas are not united...it going to be easy...to manage Ethiopia.

The problem is this time around no entity has the ability to take over Ethiopia,my analysis is TPLF can't mount a fight to take addis alone actually from scrutinising the areas  they have taken it appears they are boxed in as they only occupy a narrow corridor if the Ethiopian army is cohesive they can easily cause massive casualties fo the Tigray if the counter attack. Think of it this way dessie and kombolcha would be like occupying eldoret and nakuru highway strip but with all the surrounding land under the government forces. Anywas lets wait and see,unless other groups emerge or army abandons Abiy this will be along drawn out fight.

[RV Pundit]

7 more rebels join force...Nobel Laureate should look for asylum

[mankind]

    There is so much propaganda going on in this war. A mix of local politics coupled with geopolitics definitely.
 
 

[Georgesoros]

USA has told non essentials to leave.
This guy has an EGO like Trump and is willing to destroy everything.

[vooke]

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[Njuri Ncheke]

Be careful of western sponsored propaganda. TPLF is a western stooge and US and Europe want them back. If Ethiopia was going down that easily the rebels would have been in addis already what the west is trying to do is sponsoring panic and fear so that government can collapse. Uhuru gatheca is also being used to weaken Ethiopia but lets see how it goes.
My own analysis as a military historian and what I have gathered is that the TPLF rebels have suffered huge loses in around Wollo areas in attempt to march to addis . OLF Is trying to attack addis As it in oromia but they lack the know how. What to note is Abiy though aloof retains majority of support. Again Idont see TPLF able to capture addis easily this is not the 90s.

[gout]

The fall of Gaddaffi, Mugabe, Compaore, Bashir, Conde are proof that most African states are hollow fragile states mainly thriving on fear and PR. The blame on foreign interference is usually laughable but it is a good pro govt and even mzungu tactic to show that Africans cannot do anything by themselves.

Even peasant organisation of Mau Mau was said to be 'communist'. School kids are said to be not the ones protesting ati it is suppliers , mara teachers.