Implausible. That Raila will take 40 percent of Mt kenya; or 65 percent of Luhya; Wacha bangi nani. That Raila will run with Luhya DPORK.
Plausible: Raila will run with GEMA DPORK; he will create BBI pentagon of wakina Mutua, Mukhisa, Oparanya and Joho. With such a scenario - and even strong Uhuru backing - Raila will max out at 30. Someone like Mutua will give you zero votes..his big con game ended in 2017. He is like Mukhisa - big name - but even in his village - he has zero votes.
Implausible that OKA will survive. Both Kalonzo and MaDVD will not agree on who deputizes who. If they both agree - without Uhuru or Mt kenya buyout - it still 15 percent max ticket. It is likely MaDVD will go to the wire. I dont see Kalonzo being serious in his run - I think he is broke - without Muthama - he has no money. Raila doesnt want him - contrary to public opinion - I think Raila is angling for GEMA. Many in Luhya and Ukambani are fatigued voting Raila and all familiar story - so they have to try something else.
Plausible. Weta has a deal with Ruto. The idea is to have Weta-Lusaka-Chris Wamalwa - rollover Bungoma-Tranzioa. Weta gets the speaker position.The current Tranzoia gov will probably get CS. Raila will have Wamunyiyi-eseli-Kijana wamalwa-wangamati-mukhisa. Weta-Lusaka-Chris together with UDA wins by far. Wangamati group will depend on mood - either Raila or maDVD like AMANI of 2013.
Bottom-line. These are a lot of scenarios - but we have one plausible scenario.
2022 is simple. It's Ruto versus 50 plus 1.
Ruto even at 40 percent of GEMA
- is still very strong - that gives him 40 percent - and will need only 10 percent. That without factoring deals with say Weta and or Kalonzo. Obviously, Ruto is so popular in mt kenya - worst I expect is 70 percent.
So 2022 - really no need to do MOAS for all crazy combinations except Ruto versus 50 percent.
I tell you what you need to factor in your MOASS maybe your scenario 4:-
By this time next week, if they haven't made up their mind, Baba is done trying to get OKA musketeers (who are busy trying to blackmail him) round to the table. He will call their bluff and proceed with new frontmen in the Kalonzo/Musalia regions. After all only Kalonzo may have a strong hold on his region. MdVD has very minuscule hold on Luhya & it is well known Weta is a Ruto/UDA mole in OKA. Weta will even loose his Bungoma Senator seat mapema asubuhi. In this scenario Baba will proceed with either Oparanya or Kituyi as running mate.
OKA will run with Kalonzo as flag bearer and Musalia as running mate. Mt. Kenya will split 3 ways.... Almost equally with UDA (40%), Baba/Jubilee (40%) & OKA (20%). Mark you also that for MdVD as running mate for Kalonzo, he almost kisses western bye! Baba gets the chunk of western (65%, OKA 20%, UDA 15%). Weta has no influence in western in spite of your wishful yarns.
In this scenario, 2022 will go to a run-off and Baba takes it with a coalition with OKA; and with BBI dead, they may only be offered some senior cabinet positions to form a coalition.
