The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.

[RV Pundit]

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The big question of 2022 is undoubtedly how GEMA will register, turn up and vote?

 How would Ruto do with 50,60,70,80, 90 percent of GEMA and with a reduced turnout (10 percent) - with few increment in Bomet (Raila had 10 percent), Turkana, Narok,etc.

The Rough MOAS answers below
50 percent - 42%   
60 percent - 45%   
70 percent - 48%   
80 percent - 51%   
90 percent - 53%

[RV Pundit]

I will be running couple of scenarios:

Baseline Scenario 001: Ruto retains Uhuru 2017 Jubilee coalition and turnout - with GEMA 50, 60,70, 80, 90  support retained.

Total expected votes 15,237,624   
Ruto with 50 percent of GEMA -6,303,707 (41%)   
Ruto with 60 percent of GEMA - 6,812,657   (45%)   
Ruto with 70 percent of GEMA - 7,338,260   (48%)   
Ruto with 80 percent of GEMA - 7,796,841   (51%)   
Ruto with 90 percent of GEMA - 8,228,484   (54%)

Conclusion -
1) Ruto needs 75 percent of GEMA to become PORK.
2)  GEMA votes was roughly equal about 26-27 percent of the national voting power - with elevated vote registration (60 percent of population - compared to NEP 30 percent) - and elevated turn out (10 percent above national average).
3) The GEMA population should be about 22 percent - 17 percent for Kikuyu, 4 percent Meru and 1 percent Embu-Mbeere.
4)  Ruto if he was to lose all GEMA votes and if he was to retain rest of the Jubilee coalition of 2017 starts - at halfway mark - about 27 percent.

Data to be attached below.
   

[RV Pundit]

Next Scenario : for tomorrow.

2022 Turnout Projection Scenario 002

 Scenario 001 with a tinkering on the turnout - GEMA/Luo had 10 percent turn out above national average (77) - generally turning out at 86-87 percent - with Kalenjin and few others at 80 percent{big 5} - majority of counties around 75 percent.

Same Jubilee Coalition - with GEMA turnout - dropping 10 percent to national average of 77 percent - and Kalenjin turnout increasing to 87 percent from 81 percent on average. I expect Kalenjin (and Raila if he runs) to see increase turn out for having the candidate.

[Nowayhaha]

One aspect you need to capture is without a strong Mt Kenya candidate a first since Independence, The Gema hate which had been motivating factor for voting for Moi and Raila these time around cant be used as a rallying call. Its a fact Mijikenda , Taitas , Maasai , Luhyas , Turkanas ,Pokots , Arabs , Kambas have been voting for Moi and Raila because of this.
Without GEMA boegeyman and with Raila Boegeyman .Mt Kenya as usual will be motivated to wake up early in the morning to go and vote against Raila.
Anti Gema wont be as motivated as much.

[RV Pundit]

Yes, I think those are likely scenarios to play in 2022.

I see generally Ruto doing well in those Non-gema areas - except in Gusii. Gusii which is normally pro-gema (Matiangi/Raila alliance might win Gusii-Nyamira on 70:30) although it could become a generation contest - too many dead woods in ODM - while Ruto has the young Turks - could become 50-50 - or a surprise like 2017 when Nyamira flipped to Uhuru; but I reckon Raila-Matiangi have an edge.

I see Ruto generally doing well in pastoralist areas - Maasai, Pokot, Turkana, and Samburu - Uhuru performed poorly here. Maasai after clearing Mau forest seems to have ended their animus with Kalenjin and no longer needs Raila.

The Somalis were also 50-50 with Uhuru - they have this animus with GEMA - but I see Ruto improving in Somali regions generally. They see Duale and Raila have really betrayed them with 1M1S and the whole BBI targetting of them.

But normally such small vulnerable tribes play 50-50 - so if Uhuru gov goes hard - they will simply spread their risks - they have no horse in the race.

In Mijikenda - Giriama (Kilifi) - look likely to split into 3 equal parts -Ruto, Raila, and Kingi.
In Kwale -I think Ruto has an edge there; with both Raila and Kalonzo split. Kilifi Ruto also has an edge but probably going to go 40:40:20 (for kalonzo)
In Mombasa - Mijikenda is the majority; they are heading for a clash with ODM Luos-Swahili; Ruto has a chance to improve to as much a little there; to even 50 percent; he has genuine grassroots support from the likes of Mohammed Ali of Nyali.

For now, it is hard to predict Luhya/Kambas - since we don't know if Kalonzo and MaDVD will run.

Mt Kenya turnout  - I think the division and lack of strong candidates - could dampen turnout - I don't see that extra motivation - unless the class war really get going. I am inclined to go for just slightly above the national average - maybe 80 percent - from an average of 87 percent.

Kalenjin turnout and registration - I see a big jump here - the excitement there is huge - so I expect serious mobilization.

All these scenarios - we need to run the NUMBERS - and see the effect - generally, Ruto starting from a strong base, unless he somehow loses GEMA.

One aspect you need to capture is without a strong Mt Kenya candidate a first since Independence, The Gema hate which had been motivating factor for voting for Moi and Raila these time around cant be used as a rallying call. Its a fact Mijikenda , Taitas , Maasai , Luhyas , Turkanas ,Pokots , Arabs , Kambas have been voting for Moi and Raila because of this.
Without GEMA boegeyman and with Raila Boegeyman .Mt Kenya as usual will be motivated to wake up early in the morning to go and vote against Raila.
Anti Gema wont be as motivated as much.

[gout]

Great works!!

[RV Pundit]

Scenario 002: Scenario 001 with tinkering of turnout

Reducing GEMA (mostly kikuyu had 87)  turnout by 10 percent to 77 - around the national average - and increase Kalenjin from around 81 to 87 percent.

The results:

Total expected votes 15,027,987 
Ruto with 50 percent of GEMA -6,241,810 (42%)   - slightly increase from Scenario 001.
Ruto with 60 percent of GEMA - 6,722,535   (45%)   
Ruto with 70 percent of GEMA - 7,222,164   (48%)   
Ruto with 80 percent of GEMA - 7,653,446   (51%)   
Ruto with 90 percent of GEMA - 8,060,995   (54%)

Conclusion

• Drop of about 200,000 votes - of the total votes - representing just over 1 percent of total cast votes .
• Almost no effect on the Ruto percentages - Ruto see small increase - when GEMA vote 50 percent for him .
• I suspect there will be a (1-2 percent) increase for the opposition (Raila/NASA) as GEMA 10 percent turnout drop adds 200K votes to their column.

Data below

[RV Pundit]

Scenario 003: 2022 New Dynamics with GEMA votes stratified   



- By 15th August 2021

[RV Pundit]

Rough MOAS 2022 - one year to election  -Slight tinkering of Scenario 003 once I figure out the realistic GEMA votes for Ruto in 2022 as of now.

Most difficult job is how many of GEMA will vote for Uhuru - I will need 2 weeks of 'deep' research

- By 30th August 2021

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

A mind  is a terrible thing to waste!

[RV Pundit]

You dont like the data - well Uhuru NIS had Ruto at 49 percent. Human mind capacity is infinite. There are billions of neurons and connections. Estimated at 86 billions of them.

A mind  is a terrible thing to waste!

[RV Pundit]

Scenario 003 - Ruto versus 50 percent-  Overally I see 2 percent gain from Jubilee 2022 - with GEMA stratified.

Total expected votes 15,170,163
 
Ruto with 50 percent of GEMA - 6,738,067 (44%)   
Ruto with 60 percent of GEMA - 7,224,253 (48%)   
Ruto with 70 percent of GEMA -  7,701,926 (51%)   
Ruto with 80 percent of GEMA -  8,148,769 (54%)   
Ruto with 90 percent of GEMA -  8,564,128  (56%

Conclusion
1) Outside GEMA, I see small improvement everywhere compared to Uhuru except in Gusii (Nyamira/Kisii) and Kajiado where Ruto will perform worse than Uhuru -  Uhuru had 55 of Nyamira - I see Ruto dropping 20 percent - to 35 percent thanks Matiangi wars. Kajiado Jubilee are influenced by GEMA and are confused on where to go now. The other half is solidly NASA.

2) Ruto will do well in Kalenjin counties including West Pokot. Let see Gideon Moi gameplan - it hazy - but he can only get few votes in Baringo and West Pokot.

3) I see Ruto doing well in Kamatusa except in Kajiado. Capturing Nanok - will see improvement from 39 percent to I think 69 percent in Turkana - while settling NAROK restlessness with Mau/Kipsigis - will see small improvement - it was 50-50 with Raila thanks to Kalenjin/Kikuyu vote - with Maasai voting Raila 3:1. I see Ruto going 1:1 with Raila - considering Ruto failure to win over Narok senator Ole Kina. But Ruto has won over Purko - the most popolous- who were unhappy with governor seat going to Tunai.

4) I think NEP will vote almost at the same level - didnt bother to tinker with that - Ruto will do better than Uhuru but it wont change much.

5) Ruto will do better than Uhuru in coast...especially Kwale and Taita Taveta...also see improvement in Kilifi and Mombasa.

6) I see mt kenya turnout dropping to around 80 percent from 87 - and Kalenjin improving from 80 to 87 percent - Luos will remain there if not depressed - excitment level we shall see - if it will rise with Uhuru fuzy games. So far excitment in Nyanza and NASA region is subdued - Kichwa Mbaya is good indicator. The only people I see really excited about 2022 are Kalenjin.

7) Western - Jubilee improved in 2017 - compared to disaster of 2013 (mademoni debacle) - where they got 4 percent Jubilee Tawe - to as much as 18 percent - I see Ruto improving that to 25 percent. It worst ROI but that is political life.

Most importantly Ruto only need 70 percent of GEMA to win PORK

If he get as much GEMA support as Uhuru did - he will win with 56 percent - or 8.5m - or even 58 percent if the turnout is sustained.

If Ruto get another of NASA principles -  2% (Weta), MaDVD(4 %), Kalonzo(8%) - then percentages increase by those margins. It possible MaDVD has moved to 6 percent - considering Raila has lost Western soul - he is just left with fringes.

Ruto if he get Weta - will only need 60 percent of GEMA to win.

Ruto if he get maDVD - will only need 50 percent of GEMA to win.

Ruto if he get Kalonzo - will only need 40 percent of GEMA to win.


Next Scenario : How much Kalenjin can improve their voter registration numbers? Can they match GEMA who registered 60 percent of their total population? And what percentage would Ruto gain from that.


GEMA has 5 percent advantage from registration (roughly 27 percent of national vote) compared to their population (roughly 23 percent).

Ruto if he works on registering 60 percent ( demographics allowing) - will have 4m kalenjin votes. But Mt Kenya demographics is in transition - I' think Kalenjin adult are probably 50:50 - so best is to get 3.3 million votes - assuming Kalenjin population is now close to 6.7 - adding about 150K kids per annum.

[RV Pundit]

The Mutahi Ngunyi Twitter poll with 45,000 voters- appears to suggest Ruto will win by 56 percent; mirrors MOAS; meaning Ruto has as much vote in Mt Kenya/GEMA as Uhuru had.
Itumbi - NIS leak - 49 percent for Ruto: 30 percent for Raila; 6-8 for MaDVD and Kalonzo ;

Look like as things stand now Ruto is competing with 50+1 mark - and Raila has a mountain to climb.

Strategy no of denying Ruto 50+1 in the first round is the Opposition's only hope.

If any of the opposition big guns join Ruto - then it came over. There would be no need to hold the presidential election. Raila should boycott

[Nowayhaha]

What about undecided voters ? They form a substanyial percentage an year yo the General elections.

The Mutahi Ngunyi Twitter poll with 45,000 voters- appears to suggest Ruto will win by 56 percent; mirrors MOAS; meaning Ruto has as much vote in Mt Kenya/GEMA as Uhuru had.
Itumbi - NIS leak - 49 percent for Ruto: 30 percent for Raila; 6-8 for MaDVD and Kalonzo ;

Look like as things stand now Ruto is competing with 50+1 mark - and Raila has a mountain to climb.

Strategy no of denying Ruto 50+1 in the first round is the Opposition's only hope.

If any of the opposition big guns join Ruto - then it came over. There would be no need to hold the presidential election. Raila should boycott

[RV Pundit]

Mt Kenya has a lot of undecided voters - maybe Luhyas and Kambas - and Mijikenda - that is dynamics of 2022 - and until may 2022 - any MOAS produced now is bound to change.

So there are two things to watch
1) Mass registration in 1st Q - I dont see any big surprises
2) Political realignment - esp Mt Kenya - where OKA thing will end - and Kingi down in Mijikenda.

OKA plus Raila is NASA - they have shown to max out at 44 percent - the last two elections - so nothing doing there.

Mt Kenya vote will decide this election - Ruto needs at least 2 out 3 in GEMA to win - around 67 percent of total GEMA vote.

What about undecided voters ? They form a substanyial percentage an year yo the General elections.

[Nowayhaha]

Ive no doubt Ruto is winning if Raila is vying. The other angle you are not looking which Moi underestimated in 2002 is If Raila decides to Tosha someone.
That would be a decisive move. Ruto would need to go back to the drawing boards. Mt Kenya are only enthustiatic in voting against Raila if that card is removed  voter registration and turnout would be low in those regions.

Mt Kenya has a lot of undecided voters - maybe Luhyas and Kambas - and Mijikenda - that is dynamics of 2022 - and until may 2022 - any MOAS produced now is bound to change.

So there are two things to watch
1) Mass registration in 1st Q - I dont see any big surprises
2) Political realignment - esp Mt Kenya - where OKA thing will end - and Kingi down in Mijikenda.

OKA plus Raila is NASA - they have shown to max out at 44 percent - the last two elections - so nothing doing there.

Mt Kenya vote will decide this election - Ruto needs at least 2 out 3 in GEMA to win - around 67 percent of total GEMA vote.

What about undecided voters ? They form a substanyial percentage an year yo the General elections.

[RV Pundit]

Yes Raila Tosha might change the dynamics - especially if he Tosha someone like MaDVD. But it has remote possibility of happening. Raila is convinced he can get NASA 44 percent and add GEMA to cross 50 percent. His 2nd strategy is to deny Ruto 1st Round - and then force a re-run. Therefore I see Raila letting OKA run. He will deliberately pick Mt Kenya as his running mate and he will target the 2nd Round Contest. He will be hoping Ruto doesnt cross the 50 percent mark. Those are more plausible scenario...NASA+Jubilee (looks very unlikely) - both maDVD/Kalonzo will settle for nothing less DPORK--and it get you back to 44 percent - so splinter the vote and go tribal - deny Ruto 1st Round - and then 2nd round is just two candidates.

For Ruto - finish the job in the 1st round - to avoid all the losers ganging up. For Ruto he needs to find buffer for any mt kenya lost vote. I believe he already has 2 percent buffer - but he still need another 3-4 percent.

For Raila - play for the 2nd round - solve OKA problem by letting them run as long as they don't run to Ruto - and work on Mt Kenya - not to win but deny Ruto 50 percent.Then patch up with OKA in post 10th August- and hope to win in 2022 in repeat presidential poll.

I see both Ruto and Raila going for Mt Kenya running mate...Mt Kenya will decide this election.

Ive no doubt Ruto is winning if Raila is vying. The other angle you are not looking which Moi underestimated in 2002 is If Raila decides to Tosha someone.
That would be a decisive move. Ruto would need to go back to the drawing boards. Mt Kenya are only enthustiatic in voting against Raila if that card is removed  voter registration and turnout would be low in those regions.

[RV Pundit]

Past Presidential Elections Results in the Multi-Party Kenya

Look like Raila has maxed out at 44 percent - 2007, 2013, 2017. In 2017 despite adding Mudavadi - it did not increase his voters.

[Pragmatic]

I tell you what you need to factor in your MOASS maybe your scenario 4:-
By this time next week, if they haven't made up their mind, Baba is done trying to get OKA musketeers (who are busy trying to blackmail him) round to the table. He will call their bluff and proceed with new frontmen in the Kalonzo/Musalia regions. After all only Kalonzo may have a strong hold on his region. MdVD has very minuscule hold on Luhya & it is well known Weta is a Ruto/UDA mole in OKA. Weta will even loose his Bungoma Senator seat mapema asubuhi. In this scenario Baba will proceed with either Oparanya or Kituyi as running mate.

OKA will run with Kalonzo as flag bearer and Musalia as running mate. Mt. Kenya will split 3 ways.... Almost equally with UDA (40%), Baba/Jubilee (40%) & OKA (20%). Mark you also that for MdVD as running mate for Kalonzo, he almost kisses western bye! Baba gets the chunk of western (65%, OKA 20%, UDA 15%). Weta has no influence in western in spite of your wishful yarns.

In this scenario, 2022 will go to a run-off and Baba takes it with a coalition with OKA; and with BBI dead, they may only be offered some senior cabinet positions to form a coalition.

[Nowayhaha]

Note you dont even say Raila will get 40 % of Mt Kenya votes . Trying to hide the fact that Raila is a non seller in Mt Kenya you go and say Baba/Jubilee.
This is comical to say nonetheless

I tell you what you need to factor in your MOASS maybe your scenario 4:-
By this time next week, if they haven't made up their mind, Baba is done trying to get OKA musketeers (who are busy trying to blackmail him) round to the table. He will call their bluff and proceed with new frontmen in the Kalonzo/Musalia regions. After all only Kalonzo may have a strong hold on his region. MdVD has very minuscule hold on Luhya & it is well known Weta is a Ruto/UDA mole in OKA. Weta will even loose his Bungoma Senator seat mapema asubuhi. In this scenario Baba will proceed with either Oparanya or Kituyi as running mate.

OKA will run with Kalonzo as flag bearer and Musalia as running mate. Mt. Kenya will split 3 ways.... Almost equally with UDA (40%), Baba/Jubilee (40%) & OKA (20%). Mark you also that for MdVD as running mate for Kalonzo, he almost kisses western bye! Baba gets the chunk of western (65%, OKA 20%, UDA 15%). Weta has no influence in western in spite of your wishful yarns.

In this scenario, 2022 will go to a run-off and Baba takes it with a coalition with OKA; and with BBI dead, they may only be offered some senior cabinet positions to form a coalition.