The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.

[Tactician]

Re uhuru, i think its the other way round.

Uhuru's die hard supporters already heard him. Him campaigning won't add rao numbers.

On the contrary, uk campaigning brings the baggage of many questions. Why didnt he groom a successor? Is he planning to remain relevant in mt kenya politics post august? Why is the economy doing so badly?

So uk keeping quiet changes the equation from a ruto vs uk contest to a martha vs rigathi one. Martha stands on her own, holds her own without uk baggage.

Martha also brings a clean slate. She hasnt been in govt for 15yrs. So cant blame her for the downward economic spiral
 No corruption in 15yrs. The most recent memory mt kenya have of her is her at kicc in 2007 defending their man kibaki.

Contrast that with the DO gachagua who has a recent record of corruption cases + subjugation during moi. In fact, the main reason Ruto campaign doesnt want debates is cos of a gachagua-martha head to head on national tv. Expalins gachagua's recent reticence on the tv/radio.

In short, martha's campaign is not the one of elation, but the stark contrast with Gachagua. Talk to mt kenya residents and see the ebb. Rather obvious.

It probably going to go the wire in Western & Coast - 50-50; opinion polls generally have Raila slightly ahead in Western; he had big lead (20 percent plus) in Coast; but with PAA exit; I see that lead shrinking.

As for Mt kenya - I think temporary excitement of Martha - is nothing compared to Uhuru withdrawal from the campaigns.

Without Uhuru on the trenches - Martha will not manage - she cannot sustain momentum for more than a week - she cut a lonely figure this week in Kirinyanga.

So again when you're looking at momentum - your want to keep an eye on solid momentum that can be sustained until August.  Not weekly excitements.

Bottom-line: Without Uhuru on the trenches - 30% is impossible in Mt kenya for Raila - heck even 20% is impossible - Martha and Jubilee crew simply dont have the gravitas to win votes. She has a 15yr almost wall of mistrust to surmount has she has been doing her own things. For her to sell herself and then Raila is impossible.

Uhuru still is trusted by small minority who'd give him some benefit of doubt....and pretty much all support Raila has in GEMA is uhuru benefit of doubt account. If he goes silent - then that support will shrink - and I think that is what is happening - as generally Ruto is moving to 80 percent of Mt kenya - at least according to Mizani. Raila had small bump from Martha - but it mostly came from undecided voters - not from Ruto voters. MIzani are doing heavily samples. I wish other pollsters would just focus on few counties with proper sampling...than trying to sample the entire country...and produce unreliable data.

But definitely she help burnish some reform credential in Raila ticket - Raila was increasingly looking like old KANU - and Martha has given him a shine - at least nationally.

Is Ruto really ahead of raila in western/coast? I doubt, but i dunno. We shall soon find out.

The issue is momentum. Who has it? I can tell you that the debate between Karua/Gachagua has tilted the momentum in central kenya, especially among the older folks who are reliable voters. Won't be shocked if raila gets 40% there on eelection day on account of turnout

[RV Pundit]

You dont make much sense because you're doing superficial analysis.
Uhuru and handshake crew are on the ropes because of Gachagua and others who have fought for 5yrs against gov.
So already Gachagua to the hustler nation (which is what matters for Ruto) is well known - a champion or a warrior - a leader of the troops.
The little competition/tiff he had within UDA/Hustler nation has ended - and everyone in has come to accept his leadership of mt Kenya crew.
He doesnt need to sell himself anymore that he has done the last 5yrs.
The scars and wounds of war that you call ugly - including corruption cases - he wears proudly and doesnt need to explain to Hustler Nation why he is has all those scars.
He is battle wounded because he is been fighting Uhuru.
Everyone in Hustler Nation bears those ugly scars...of court cases,random arrests, corrupt allegations (Ruto has gazillion) and all manners of intimidation & bribery.
Some like Itumbi - walk with broken bones! Others like Humprey Kariuki have been bankrupted.

Now comes Martha - who looks clean - because as Mt kenya has been fighting Uhuru and handshake crew - she has been sitting on the fence.

Martha only appeal to people who were not in Hustler Nation and were looking for a grounding.
Martha is their excuse to come out and firm their support.
It's like gay coming out because of change of law...they now have good excuse to say...you see I am supporting Martha
Otherwise anybody who support Ruto who is accused of even grander corrruption - cannot refuse to support Gachagua accused of little corruption.

And this is what data is telling us - at least the few I have seen.

Dont expect Martha to get new supporters - but her choice will firm Uhuru 15-25 percent - depending on the county.

Re uhuru, i think its the other way round.

Uhuru's die hard supporters already heard him. Him campaigning won't add rao numbers.

On the contrary, uk campaigning brings the baggage of many questions. Why didnt he groom a successor? Is he planning to remain relevant in mt kenya politics post august? Why is the economy doing so badly?

So uk keeping quiet changes the equation from a ruto vs uk contest to a martha vs rigathi one. Martha stands on her own, holds her own without uk baggage.

Martha also brings a clean slate. She hasnt been in govt for 15yrs. So cant blame her for the downward economic spiral
 No corruption in 15yrs. The most recent memory mt kenya have of her is her at kicc in 2007 defending their man kibaki.

Contrast that with the DO gachagua who has a recent record of corruption cases + subjugation during moi. In fact, the main reason Ruto campaign doesnt want debates is cos of a gachagua-martha head to head on national tv. Expalins gachagua's recent reticence on the tv/radio.

In short, martha's campaign is not the one of elation, but the stark contrast with Gachagua. Talk to mt kenya residents and see the ebb. Rather obvious.

[Tactician]

Have conversations with the over 35s in mt kenya. You will notice the difference pre and post Martha/Gachagua nominations.

Otherwise, lets wait for opinion polls in July.

You dont make much sense because you're doing superficial analysis.
Uhuru and handshake crew are on the ropes because of Gachagua and others who have fought for 5yrs against gov.
So already Gachagua to the hustler nation (which is what matters for Ruto) is well known - a champion or a warrior - a leader of the troops.
The little competition/tiff he had within UDA/Hustler nation has ended - and everyone in has come to accept his leadership of mt Kenya crew.
He doesnt need to sell himself anymore that he has done the last 5yrs.
The scars and wounds of war that you call ugly - including corruption cases - he wears proudly and doesnt need to explain to Hustler Nation why he is has all those scars.
He is battle wounded because he is been fighting Uhuru.
Everyone in Hustler Nation bears those ugly scars...of court cases,random arrests, corrupt allegations (Ruto has gazillion) and all manners of intimidation & bribery.
Some like Itumbi - walk with broken bones! Others like Humprey Kariuki have been bankrupted.

Now comes Martha - who looks clean - because as Mt kenya has been fighting Uhuru and handshake crew - she has been sitting on the fence.

Martha only appeal to people who were not in Hustler Nation and were looking for a grounding.
Martha is their excuse to come out and firm their support.
It's like gay coming out because of change of law...they now have good excuse to say...you see I am supporting Martha
Otherwise anybody who support Ruto who is accused of even grander corrruption - cannot refuse to support Gachagua accused of little corruption.

And this is what data is telling us - at least the few I have seen.

Dont expect Martha to get new supporters - but her choice will firm Uhuru 15-25 percent - depending on the county.

Re uhuru, i think its the other way round.

Uhuru's die hard supporters already heard him. Him campaigning won't add rao numbers.

On the contrary, uk campaigning brings the baggage of many questions. Why didnt he groom a successor? Is he planning to remain relevant in mt kenya politics post august? Why is the economy doing so badly?

So uk keeping quiet changes the equation from a ruto vs uk contest to a martha vs rigathi one. Martha stands on her own, holds her own without uk baggage.

Martha also brings a clean slate. She hasnt been in govt for 15yrs. So cant blame her for the downward economic spiral
 No corruption in 15yrs. The most recent memory mt kenya have of her is her at kicc in 2007 defending their man kibaki.

Contrast that with the DO gachagua who has a recent record of corruption cases + subjugation during moi. In fact, the main reason Ruto campaign doesnt want debates is cos of a gachagua-martha head to head on national tv. Expalins gachagua's recent reticence on the tv/radio.

In short, martha's campaign is not the one of elation, but the stark contrast with Gachagua. Talk to mt kenya residents and see the ebb. Rather obvious.

[RV Pundit]

Martha bump was going to last two weeks (ending this week) before they realize it's Raila on the ballot and she is just a flower girl. Let see  few opinion polls the coming weeks. The ones I saw there was small bump - mostly from undecided. That is where Martha can beat Gachagua...but someone who was in Ruto team....cannot change because of Gachagua....whether he be 35yrs or not. Those over 35yrs in Martha camp were not in hustler nation...and their profile remain the elite educated male opinionated..they will account for 15-25 percent of the total vote.

Have conversations with the over 35s in mt kenya. You will notice the difference pre and post Martha/Gachagua nominations.
Otherwise, lets wait for opinion polls in July.

[RV Pundit]

Wajir is pretty much settle for this Jubilee dude - uhuru has one gov

Abdinoor appeals to other aspirants to drop their ambitions and support Hassan for victory https://t.co/OtFdKXiYXU

— TheStarKenya (@TheStarKenya) June 5, 2022

[einstein_g]

So RV, where do the numbers stand at the moment, according to your MOAS? What national percentage to you assign to KK vs Azimio?

[RV Pundit]

I havent updated; I left it at 47 percent versus 52 percent.
I expect the numbers now to be around 45-46 for Raila - and 53-54 for Raila.
Uhuru decision not to engage - means I have to bring down Mt kenya - I have Meru at 45 percent for Raila - and generally other areas Raila was doing 30-35 percent.
I believe Ruto is now playing 80 percent of Mt kenya - some areas lower - other areas higher.

So RV, where do the numbers stand at the moment, according to your MOAS? What national percentage to you assign to KK vs Azimio?

[yulemsee]

Working on a google sheet,
I don't have registered voter nos.
I intend to make this collaborative, each person can have their own worksheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yS4B_BrAu4w1CXhSWZI95MRC81F90_UdcJE4dcyGX0o/edit?usp=drivesdk

[RV Pundit]

For what is worth - here we go with hilarious Ambitho nonsense

Stronghold and battleground counties #infotrakpoll #marthakarua #inawezekana #MadeInKenya pic.twitter.com/rYNwoai8T6

— . (@Infotrakltd) June 8, 2022

[RV Pundit]

They pumped ODM but Jubilee is gone gone

The political party affiliation: by gender and age. #Infotrakpoll pic.twitter.com/I0RYOOqzGE

— . (@Infotrakltd) June 8, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Nyanza...seem they pumped undecided in Gusii - must be Ruto figures.

The people of the Nyanza region feel that Raila Odinga is the most popular presidential candidate. #infotrakpoll pic.twitter.com/ENczLl3mCg

— . (@Infotrakltd) June 8, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Western - you can see how they rigged Kakamega - try as much Ruto is ahead in Bungoma and Tranzoia

The people of the Western region feel that Raila Odinga is the most popular presidential candidate. #infotrakpoll pic.twitter.com/r1zXRaEIRJ

— . (@Infotrakltd) June 8, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Hilarious

The people of the North Rift region feel that William Ruto is the most popular presidential candidate. #Infotrakpoll pic.twitter.com/TSLBoeZ05J

— . (@Infotrakltd) June 8, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Look like Kajiado Ruto is taking -  that only take away in this crap

The people of the South Rift region feel that William Ruto is the most popular presidential candidate. #infotrakpoll pic.twitter.com/AsgHqCWjzi

— . (@Infotrakltd) June 8, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Crap mostly

The people of the Mt. Kenya region feel William Ruto is the most popular presidential candidate. #infotrakpoll pic.twitter.com/DVtbI8nhz2

— . (@Infotrakltd) June 8, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Ukambani & Coast Ruto doing very well despite obvious supression in Kilifi. Seem infotrak as they focussed on suprising western - didnt bother much with Ukambani - kilifi is another one obvious cookery - like maDVD - it seem designed to show kingi had no impact.

According to the people of the Lower Eastern region, Lower Eastern is seen as a battleground for both Raila Odinga and William Ruto. #infotrakpoll pic.twitter.com/tvUnJmQj6m

— . (@Infotrakltd) June 8, 2022

[Tactician]

Check the data, county by county as released by Mizani a few minutes ago.

Rao has the momentum. Martha's impact becoming clearer in mt kenya. And still two months to go.

You dont make much sense because you're doing superficial analysis.
Uhuru and handshake crew are on the ropes because of Gachagua and others who have fought for 5yrs against gov.
So already Gachagua to the hustler nation (which is what matters for Ruto) is well known - a champion or a warrior - a leader of the troops.
The little competition/tiff he had within UDA/Hustler nation has ended - and everyone in has come to accept his leadership of mt Kenya crew.
He doesnt need to sell himself anymore that he has done the last 5yrs.
The scars and wounds of war that you call ugly - including corruption cases - he wears proudly and doesnt need to explain to Hustler Nation why he is has all those scars.
He is battle wounded because he is been fighting Uhuru.
Everyone in Hustler Nation bears those ugly scars...of court cases,random arrests, corrupt allegations (Ruto has gazillion) and all manners of intimidation & bribery.
Some like Itumbi - walk with broken bones! Others like Humprey Kariuki have been bankrupted.

Now comes Martha - who looks clean - because as Mt kenya has been fighting Uhuru and handshake crew - she has been sitting on the fence.

Martha only appeal to people who were not in Hustler Nation and were looking for a grounding.
Martha is their excuse to come out and firm their support.
It's like gay coming out because of change of law...they now have good excuse to say...you see I am supporting Martha
Otherwise anybody who support Ruto who is accused of even grander corrruption - cannot refuse to support Gachagua accused of little corruption.

And this is what data is telling us - at least the few I have seen.

Dont expect Martha to get new supporters - but her choice will firm Uhuru 15-25 percent - depending on the county.

Re uhuru, i think its the other way round.

Uhuru's die hard supporters already heard him. Him campaigning won't add rao numbers.

On the contrary, uk campaigning brings the baggage of many questions. Why didnt he groom a successor? Is he planning to remain relevant in mt kenya politics post august? Why is the economy doing so badly?

So uk keeping quiet changes the equation from a ruto vs uk contest to a martha vs rigathi one. Martha stands on her own, holds her own without uk baggage.

Martha also brings a clean slate. She hasnt been in govt for 15yrs. So cant blame her for the downward economic spiral
 No corruption in 15yrs. The most recent memory mt kenya have of her is her at kicc in 2007 defending their man kibaki.

Contrast that with the DO gachagua who has a recent record of corruption cases + subjugation during moi. In fact, the main reason Ruto campaign doesnt want debates is cos of a gachagua-martha head to head on national tv. Expalins gachagua's recent reticence on the tv/radio.

In short, martha's campaign is not the one of elation, but the stark contrast with Gachagua. Talk to mt kenya residents and see the ebb. Rather obvious.

[RV Pundit]

Small bump was expected.I see generally 10 percent increase that I expect Gachagua to claw back.The biggest factor that would have worried me was uhuru engagement.That I expected would push Raila to 35 percent.The way I see Raila won more undecided in mt Kenya and there are 5 percent left..Ruto should concetrate in kakamega and Kilifi.. everywhere looks good.When you apply historical turnout magic happens n Ruto beat Raila by 10 percent

[Tactician]

Momentum is on rao's side. As for turnout, expect different game this time round. Ruto has the youth, rao has the middle to older. Guess who turns out more on election day...

Small bump was expected.I see generally 10 percent increase that I expect Gachagua to claw back.The biggest factor that would have worried me was uhuru engagement.That I expected would push Raila to 35 percent.The way I see Raila won more undecided in mt Kenya and there are 5 percent left..Ruto should concetrate in kakamega and Kilifi.. everywhere looks good.When you apply historical turnout magic happens n Ruto beat Raila by 10 percent

[RV Pundit]

Momentum is on rao's side. As for turnout, expect different game this time round. Ruto has the youth, rao has the middle to older. Guess who turns out more on election day...

Small bump was expected.I see generally 10 percent increase that I expect Gachagua to claw back.The biggest factor that would have worried me was uhuru engagement.That I expected would push Raila to 35 percent.The way I see Raila won more undecided in mt Kenya and there are 5 percent left..Ruto should concetrate in kakamega and Kilifi.. everywhere looks good.When you apply historical turnout magic happens n Ruto beat Raila by 10 percent

The momentum died long time ago before he said we should ban mitumba.You shoukd expect Raila to shot himself severally in the next two months.Turnout has regional component to it.That mean you expect coast at 60 percent..luo n kalenjin at 90 percent.That huge differential that alter the maths.I guess you mean GEMA turnout.That remain the paradox of this election..we can expect lower turnout than usual.Within GEMA Ruto has the reliable women vote..Raila has older men..I think it balances out..As long as uhuru is scared of Gachagua Martha is going nowhere..her momentum has already died..and Gachagua being grassroots mobilizer will nail turnout game... because people need to made to turn out.In conclusion without uhuru in gema trenches Martha is dead ..she cannot handle the politics required to sustain anti Raila propaganda so whatever PR issues Gachagua had will pale in comparison than if Ruto was ducking out with Ruto.