Author Topic: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.  (Read 49452 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #260 on: May 10, 2022, 01:16:44 PM »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #261 on: May 10, 2022, 01:18:25 PM »
Very comprehensive data


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #262 on: May 10, 2022, 01:19:50 PM »

Offline audacityofhope

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #263 on: May 10, 2022, 02:20:17 PM »
Trend analysis a disaster for KK.

Ruto: 47.0
Raila: 46.9

0.1% separates the two. You all know, you cannot go into an election with such a margin when the govt is not on your side and hope to win.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #264 on: May 10, 2022, 02:24:31 PM »
Of course. But this assume turnout is similar. Once you factor turnout; then figures changes drastically.
Ruto has to work to on rigging margin....he has focus on Mijikenda and Western. MaDVD is not doing good.
Trend analysis a disaster for KK.

Ruto: 47.0
Raila: 46.9

0.1% separates the two. You all know, you cannot go into an election with such a margin when the govt is not on your side and hope to win.

Offline gout

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #265 on: May 11, 2022, 01:55:39 AM »
Most kukuyus still holding on to a magical card ufool holds. jeshi has already failed in kanairo after kicking out sonko who is taking mambasa.

Sri Lanka generals- Rajpasakas who tamed Tamil Tigers are been chased out of town by the economy.
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one ~ Thomas Paine

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #266 on: May 12, 2022, 12:39:32 AM »
Raila and Ruto on deadheat according to Nation survey

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #267 on: May 12, 2022, 12:42:20 AM »
Nation regional breakdown

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #268 on: May 12, 2022, 12:46:19 AM »
Nation methodology - Computer aided telephone survey - seems all of them are using this. Nobody has the money anymore to go asking people questions. Maybe NIS.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #269 on: May 12, 2022, 10:34:56 PM »
Radio Africa SMS based - this one I guess is for literate users?

Pretty much tight contest - I would put credibility of this poll to doubt

Ruto leads Mombasa, Kiambu and Nakuru - Raila lead Nairobi

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-12-ruto-conquers-mombasa-maintains-grip-in-mount-kenya-new-poll/?pkg=130

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #270 on: May 14, 2022, 01:49:43 PM »
So nation poll done by infotrak..that makes it crap.Tifa,Mizani and Radio Africa are more credible.Ambitho nonsense is bullcrap

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #271 on: May 14, 2022, 03:23:32 PM »
Couple of Mizani county level opinion polls

Tana river is 50-50 btw ODM and UDA. Current ODM governor has slight lead over former governor now running on UDA.
UDA senator Mungatana looks set for comeback.
Look like KANU has the women rep.

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Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #272 on: May 14, 2022, 03:30:34 PM »
Samburu - UDA governor and Senator are in commanding lead with 65 percent of the vote. Jubilee follows. ODM is dead.


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #273 on: May 14, 2022, 03:31:26 PM »
Nandi - no suprises

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #274 on: May 14, 2022, 03:32:24 PM »
Lamu from one Mp in 2013 - look like Kikuyus are slowly going to make Lamu Mt kenya county - leading senate/women rep - Muthama Mp will likely retain Lamu west mp.

ANC - Timmay - former governor look set to beat the current governor - Jubilee Fahim. A kikuyu is 3rd. Very soon Lamu will become Mt kenya.

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Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #275 on: May 14, 2022, 03:35:33 PM »
Kilifi - PAA and UDA if they combined force will beat ODM

For now ODM in a small lead


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #276 on: May 14, 2022, 03:37:52 PM »
Kiambu - UDA to take governor, senator and women rep

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #277 on: May 17, 2022, 12:57:59 AM »
Big update coming. When official presentation of papers happen - btw end of this month and 10th June - we would have had three weeks to observe. Ruto has had the momentum. Will Rarua seize it now? Has Kalonzo stolen the thunder.

Let see -  Ruto has performed beyond expectation in two biggest hurdles - UDA nominations and running mate nomination - it's surreal that no fallout happened. I had anticipated this would knock down some of his sail but I was wrong. He aced the two with flying colour. Almost nobody has bitterly complained about being rigged out or falling it to get DPORK or told to stepdown. It really must take some talent and maybe money to bribe ambitious politician to forgo their ambition. I think millions are exchanging hands as bare minimum to compensate the losers...pay off their loans :)

Raila just took a big hit in Ukambani. Kalonzo is back - with his own column - and his default 8 percent. We shall also see what rest of 10 guys who wanted to be Raila DPORK will do - although they can only dent very little. Kalonzo is biggest deal.

Kalonzo move makes Azimio dead in Ukambani - Ngilu has to run to Kitui to salvage the little left. Nairobi/Mombasa - Kamba edge that Raila had - just evaporated - it's now almost 45-45 in Nairobi with Kalonzo taking 10 percent.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #278 on: May 18, 2022, 11:52:13 AM »
Post nomination of running mate - TIFA research. Curiously they conducted a survey - I guess of 2,000 people in one day and run the analysis - this has very low probative value. Possibly part of elaborate plan to pump up hopeless Karua.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: The Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) - 2022 Kenya Election - thread.
« Reply #279 on: May 19, 2022, 10:29:30 AM »
Tifa latest poll has almost zero probative value if you look at central rift (kalenjin counties) - Ruto has less support than South Rift (Narok-Kajiado).
Tifa split the country into South rift(Narok,Kajiado), Central rift (7 kalenjin counties), Western (4 luhyas+Tranzoia), Mt Kenya(both east & west plus laikipia and Nakuru)

Now how on earth would Maasai vote for Ruto more than Kalenjin..


As for Nyanza despite having Gusii/Kuria - Raila is doing 70 percent