Nipate

Exactly the point , Betrayal politics from Uhurus handshake and now Ruto Gachagua impeachment has made that position less attractive.
Even look at the 2022 DP candidates Gachagua and Karua they had no clout as they were being nominated .
Majority will run with their parties in order to come feom a point of strength . Thats the evolution of Kenyan politics but then again what evoultion do you know if you still think 90 politics of rigging and old constituion can  still work in this day and age ….

After election - how do you switch DPORK? Post election coalition dont work for simple reason that second highest prize is deputy president and you cannot switch - unless you have numbers to impeach

Quote from: Nowayhaha on November 18, 2024, 02:09:12 PM

In all matters scenario there will be a Run off . Several Candidates or even 3 or 4 .
Many parties were there in 2022 but its the opposite which happened , azimio had more parties and lost Kenya Kwanza parties brought less votes and got the biggest share . Forget the 90s mentality we have a party registration body where you file the deals .
Another revolt is imminent die to the tax regime and debt trap just a matter of time , Military saved Ruto last time Raila has bought him time as we near 2027 it will eventually happen  .
Coalition politics will play after first election . Raila in 2022 and 2013 had the biggest coalition but still lost . 50+1 and politics of betrayal killed coalition politics in Kenya. Uhurus handshake and Ruto broad based Govt Coalitions have shown coalitions after elections are the ones which stick before they end up self canibalizing  . If you cant see this now one can help you

Quote from: Njuri Ncheke on November 18, 2024, 11:03:29 AM

Noway am thinking of the following scenarios at he moment;
1. If we have several presidential candidates Ruto wins, he will have too much leeway
2. If we have too many parties same as above easy for Ruto to manipulate gives him too much leeway
3. We have to see if there will be another Genz 2.0 revolution by end 2026 this now poses the most serious threat to Ruto presidency he wont survive  it but must be on a bigger scale than last
4. Ruto can build a coalition big enough to out maneuver GEMA if he sails to 2027 without any serious threat like revolution and political chaos mentioned above. Already Ruto knows trying splitting GEMA  is impossible and waste of resources so he must be working on a plan B already.

Of concern is Uhuru appears already made up mind never to forgive Gachagua atleast thus Gachagua is struggling and already getting forgotten, 3 years will also be verry long in politics.  We have to wait and see.

Nobody wants to be associated with him.If you do,there is a very high probability you will not be re-elected.His tour of kakamega the two sundays ago,Nairobi yesterday,Embu on saturday is a proof.Previously he used to have a large convoy of elected representatives who have now disappeared.The only people defending him are shollei sudi and murkomen and they are only doing it on Tv Twitter and hotels.Otherwise kwa ground ni kunoma.

In western,leaders like khalwale oparanya weta madvd are 50:50.Remember Madvd betrayed his father Moi.He can betray his bro Ruto.

Jaluo leaders like Orengo Nyongo Babu owino aladwa and kajwang are 50:50 Raila phone is mostly off.

Mt kenya governors are a no show kihika susan waiguru are missing.Kawira mwangaza is watching  from sidelines.

Coast leaders like Nassir Joho are a no show.

The same happened to Uhuru from 2021.By August 2022,He was only left with Kioni.Not a good moment when you get intelligence reports telling you mheshimiwa rais,mambo kwa ground apana mzuri.

The moment you dont have support from GEMA Luhya Luo Kamba while Coast is 50:50 What do you expect?

Church were issuing statement every month  against Uhuru.
opposition is not strange.
It just that Kalonzo is weak.
Raila is tamed.

The church and Gen Zs are filling that void.

Quote from: Githunguri on November 18, 2024, 01:23:15 PM

All these chruches Pcea catholic ack and their umbrellas bodies Evangelical alliance of Kenya and NCcK for protestant churches hold alot of influence countrywide.The moment they decide to use the pulpit against you,you are done.I can assure you,anywhere ruto goes countrywide he will meet hostile crowds.

That's right.

The church was against Uhuru and supported Ruto,right?Who won?

Ruto bought Raila,GENz burned invaded parliament.

Now he has bought Raila And Parliament,Do you know what will happen?The priests sheikhs bishops will march across the country and oust him out of office.

How many can he kill?100?10000?Who will rescue him?Raila?

We are at the eve of the revolution.Things may escalate sooner than you think.

After election - how do you switch DPORK? Post election coalition dont work for simple reason that second highest prize is deputy president and you cannot switch - unless you have numbers to impeach

In all matters scenario there will be a Run off . Several Candidates or even 3 or 4 .
Many parties were there in 2022 but its the opposite which happened , azimio had more parties and lost Kenya Kwanza parties brought less votes and got the biggest share . Forget the 90s mentality we have a party registration body where you file the deals .
Another revolt is imminent die to the tax regime and debt trap just a matter of time , Military saved Ruto last time Raila has bought him time as we near 2027 it will eventually happen  .
Coalition politics will play after first election . Raila in 2022 and 2013 had the biggest coalition but still lost . 50+1 and politics of betrayal killed coalition politics in Kenya. Uhurus handshake and Ruto broad based Govt Coalitions have shown coalitions after elections are the ones which stick before they end up self canibalizing  . If you cant see this now one can help you

Quote from: Njuri Ncheke on November 18, 2024, 11:03:29 AM

Noway am thinking of the following scenarios at he moment;
1. If we have several presidential candidates Ruto wins, he will have too much leeway
2. If we have too many parties same as above easy for Ruto to manipulate gives him too much leeway
3. We have to see if there will be another Genz 2.0 revolution by end 2026 this now poses the most serious threat to Ruto presidency he wont survive  it but must be on a bigger scale than last
4. Ruto can build a coalition big enough to out maneuver GEMA if he sails to 2027 without any serious threat like revolution and political chaos mentioned above. Already Ruto knows trying splitting GEMA  is impossible and waste of resources so he must be working on a plan B already.

Of concern is Uhuru appears already made up mind never to forgive Gachagua atleast thus Gachagua is struggling and already getting forgotten, 3 years will also be verry long in politics.  We have to wait and see.

I didn't understand why Uhuru was very excited when he met kindiki on Saturday in Embu.Did they agree on something with Raila?Why was he so excited?I found it very suspicious and Ruto seemed worried.Lets see how it goes.Ousting Ruto and leaving Gachagua who is politically shrewd would have been against Raila Uhuru interests.With Gachagua out,Next should be kicking out Ruto and creating a NEW REPUBLIC.I think Kindiki will be a transitional president.