Kenya 2025 medium term like election on 27th Nov by-elections

[RV Pundit]

Seem biggest battle will be In Mbeere and Malava - the rest will be friendly btw UDA and ODM
Mbeere - Former Muscian MCA Candidate Karis seem to be front runner.
Malava - Son of Malulu is favoured
https://www.tuko.co.ke/politics/601956-uda-preferred-party-malava-by-election-mizani-poll/

[Modesty Blaise]

Seem biggest battle will be In Mbeere and Malava - the rest will be friendly btw UDA and ODM
Mbeere - Former Muscian MCA Candidate Karis seem to be front runner.
Malava - Son of Malulu is favoured
https://www.tuko.co.ke/politics/601956-uda-preferred-party-malava-by-election-mizani-poll/

Seems UDA-ODM are losing in Mbeere and Malava. Very bad for them.

[RV Pundit]

Campaign has not even started. UDA has most candidates in both Malava and Mbeere - and are just done with nomination negotiations.

Seems UDA-ODM are losing in Mbeere and Malava. Very bad for them.

[Modesty Blaise]

Farouk is already camping there - I think it's wrong optics.
UDA has no real crew in Kakamega they are all ODM. Which is weird scenario of campaigning for UDA.
Ruto has to rely on Farouk or uselss MaDVD and Rectangular.

[Modesty Blaise]

Natembeya will wipe the floor with Farouk and fat Messi

"Farouk... Tawe!

[RV Pundit]

Look like we have united opposition versus UDA in Mbeere North - make things a little harder for Kindiki.
Malava - UDA + MaDVD+Weta united.
In both expect gov to pour money like never before.
Opposition if united like in Mbeere will be hard to beat.

[Modesty Blaise]

Yea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.

Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.

I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.

[RV Pundit]

Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollster

Yea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.

Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.

I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.

[Modesty Blaise]

1. 2022 PORK: bull's eye
Mizani did better than Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak in 2022. They had Ruto beating Raila by <1% - better than you RV Pundit 👀 - while the rest had Raila winning by 2-5%. HIT

2: 2022 major downstream: nicked some top, missed others.
Nairobi governor they had Sakaja winning. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Nairobi senator they had Sifuna winning. Hit
Nairobi Women Rep they had Omanga beating Pasaris. Miss
Mombasa governor they had Nassir beating Omar. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Kirinyaga governor they had Ngirici beating Waiguru. Miss
Machakos they had Wavinya beating Muthama. Hit
Meru they had Kawira beating Linturi. Hit

3. Pre-2022 byelections
Kibra 2019 - Mizani had ODM Imran Okoth beating Jubilee McDee Mariga. Hit (TIFA also had it correct)
Msambweni 2020 - Mizani had ODM Omar Boga beating Ruto-backed independent Feisal Bader. Miss (TIFA also missed with bigger pro-ODM bias)
Matungu 2021 - Mizani had ODM David Were beating of ANC Oscar Nabulindo. Miss
Kabuchai 2021 - no Mizani data
Machakos 2021 - no Mizani data
Juja 2021 - no Mizani data
Kiambaa 2021 - Mizani had UDA Kawanjiku beating Jubilee Kariri Njama by 56 v 31%. "Hit"

4. BIAS:
Here our interest is the byelections since we are concerned with bias against Ruto the underdog.
Mizani missed Msambweni and Matungu. pro-ODM, anti-Ruto bias?
But Kiambaa was arguably the most critical byelection (akin to Mbeere today) - at least they got it correct with no anti-Ruto bias. Perhaps pro-Ruto bias? 56-31 dog beating

SUM: I see average competence and possible bias in Mizani. Obviosuly Ruto has more cash now to buy polls. Let us see if Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak come up with something in the 2 months window.

Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollster

Yea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.

Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.

I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.

[RV Pundit]

Been following that handle on X - opposition/gachagua/kikuyu kind of leaning. But like you said they did well and we should not dismiss them; esp without any contrary evidence; My embu wife and people tell me in Embu Ruto is leaking. Maybe Mbeere is a little different.

1. 2022 PORK: bull's eye
Mizani did better than Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak in 2022. They had Ruto beating Raila by <1% - better than you RV Pundit 👀 - while the rest had Raila winning by 2-5%. HIT

2: 2022 major downstream: nicked some top, missed others.
Nairobi governor they had Sakaja winning. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Nairobi senator they had Sifuna winning. Hit
Nairobi Women Rep they had Omanga beating Pasaris. Miss
Mombasa governor they had Nassir beating Omar. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Kirinyaga governor they had Ngirici beating Waiguru. Miss
Machakos they had Wavinya beating Muthama. Hit
Meru they had Kawira beating Linturi. Hit

3. Pre-2022 byelections
Kibra 2019 - Mizani had ODM Imran Okoth beating Jubilee McDee Mariga. Hit (TIFA also had it correct)
Msambweni 2020 - Mizani had ODM Omar Boga beating Ruto-backed independent Feisal Bader. Miss (TIFA also missed with bigger pro-ODM bias)
Matungu 2021 - Mizani had ODM David Were beating of ANC Oscar Nabulindo. Miss
Kabuchai 2021 - no Mizani data
Machakos 2021 - no Mizani data
Juja 2021 - no Mizani data
Kiambaa 2021 - Mizani had UDA Kawanjiku beating Jubilee Kariri Njama by 56 v 31%. "Hit"

4. BIAS:
Here our interest is the byelections since we are concerned with bias against Ruto the underdog.
Mizani missed Msambweni and Matungu. pro-ODM, anti-Ruto bias?
But Kiambaa was arguably the most critical byelection (akin to Mbeere today) - at least they got it correct with no anti-Ruto bias. Perhaps pro-Ruto bias? 56-31 dog beating

SUM: I see average competence and possible bias in Mizani. Obviosuly Ruto has more cash now to buy polls. Let us see if Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak come up with something in the 2 months window.

Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollster

Yea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.

Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.

I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.

[Modesty Blaise]

Meaning what?

Been following that handle on X - opposition/gachagua/kikuyu kind of leaning. But like you said they did well and we should not dismiss them; esp without any contrary evidence; My embu wife and people tell me in Embu Ruto is leaking. Maybe Mbeere is a little different.

1. 2022 PORK: bull's eye
Mizani did better than Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak in 2022. They had Ruto beating Raila by <1% - better than you RV Pundit 👀 - while the rest had Raila winning by 2-5%. HIT

2: 2022 major downstream: nicked some top, missed others.
Nairobi governor they had Sakaja winning. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Nairobi senator they had Sifuna winning. Hit
Nairobi Women Rep they had Omanga beating Pasaris. Miss
Mombasa governor they had Nassir beating Omar. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Kirinyaga governor they had Ngirici beating Waiguru. Miss
Machakos they had Wavinya beating Muthama. Hit
Meru they had Kawira beating Linturi. Hit

3. Pre-2022 byelections
Kibra 2019 - Mizani had ODM Imran Okoth beating Jubilee McDee Mariga. Hit (TIFA also had it correct)
Msambweni 2020 - Mizani had ODM Omar Boga beating Ruto-backed independent Feisal Bader. Miss (TIFA also missed with bigger pro-ODM bias)
Matungu 2021 - Mizani had ODM David Were beating of ANC Oscar Nabulindo. Miss
Kabuchai 2021 - no Mizani data
Machakos 2021 - no Mizani data
Juja 2021 - no Mizani data
Kiambaa 2021 - Mizani had UDA Kawanjiku beating Jubilee Kariri Njama by 56 v 31%. "Hit"

4. BIAS:
Here our interest is the byelections since we are concerned with bias against Ruto the underdog.
Mizani missed Msambweni and Matungu. pro-ODM, anti-Ruto bias?
But Kiambaa was arguably the most critical byelection (akin to Mbeere today) - at least they got it correct with no anti-Ruto bias. Perhaps pro-Ruto bias? 56-31 dog beating

SUM: I see average competence and possible bias in Mizani. Obviosuly Ruto has more cash now to buy polls. Let us see if Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak come up with something in the 2 months window.

Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollster

Yea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.

Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.

I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.

[gout]

I am not seeing money being poured ama bado?

[RV Pundit]

Embu...proper..Ruto has very little support..as embus are very close to kirinyanga n Kikuyu of nyeri...so they don't like how Gachagua was impeached. Mbeere n Tharaka maybe is 50 50.