Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 06, 2019, 07:13:54 PM
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15% of roads are paved leaving 85% dirt rough road.We have railway network of 2000kms and we are arguing over that...while South Africa has what 30,000kms of rail.I think more than 70% of Kenyans do not have access to piped water.About 50% of urban residents are living in slums.There is huge infrastructure deficit that needs bridging.The good thing once you lay down the infrastructure you reap for like 100 or 200yrs.So why not borrow 100B dollars in say a 50yr or even 100 yrs century bond and fix all these issues once and for all...and let the future generations pay for it.But you want to argue about 5B dollars in 600kms rail.We need to dream big .100B is easy change in world debt market...then supliment by selling most of the parastals.With such monies we can completely eliminate dirty roads, dirty water, ensure every county has railway link, ensure every police or school or hospital looks decent, have superhighways and expressways every where...
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Infrastructure follows production and not vice versa. Production attracts infrastructure. Production justifies it.
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Infrastructure follows production and not vice versa. Production attracts infrastructure. Production justifies it.
Yup - unless the infra is for humanitarian reasons - like the costly last-mile poor folks are yet to flip the switch - yet they continue burning wood. Superhighways and bypasses in metropolis while not as good as subways are ok investments because towns are centers of production. Traffic jams burn billions in man-hours and fuel. SGR is a vanity project with no economic justification. The 5Busd could have murrammed 50% of country roads in productive areas. Or build better schools. This is the real reason we need 50% federalism - priorities - and not because of Pundit's sour grapes over Gema betrayal of Ruto. Nanok would build granaries and boreholes as Kimemia murrams roads to Nyandarua potato farms. Hii ujinga ya Uhuru na Ruto is what we have instead.
The math and stats Pundit is running - about tarmack or iron kms - is just as a poor man wish-list of a house in Runda - does he borrow and pay later or work his butt off from Kibera? China and the Tigers EARNED the infra money by massive exports and forced slavish labor. The west looted African resources and enslaved black workers. Borrow & build is ignorance 101. And no, it is not "hardwork" which is Ruto's only punchline. Any lazy fool including old wheelchair-ridden Kibaki can borrow and lay steel or tarmack. It takes abit more THINKING to develop a nation.
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Infrastructure follows production and not vice versa. Production attracts infrastructure. Production justifies it.
Yes. One would think that the smart thing to do would be to produce and sell the stuff, so that there is something to pay for the infrastructure. But what if the plan is just to use the swanky infrastructure to ship in, say, loads of Chinese junk, with near-zero load in the other direction? Payment? Well, in these times---in which billions are "easy change in world debt market"---just borrow to pay debts. And keep at it ... more Eurobonds or whatever. Plus, don't forget: this stuff will last 100 or 200 years. Of course some "negative" people have doubts on this ... how long do roads last in Kenya, how long post-independence did it take to f**k up the railways while the Japanese refurbished much-older narrow gauge lines that achieve higher speeds than Kenya's shiny, brand-new? ... negativity!
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The west looted African resources and enslaved black workers.
True. But Africa hasn't exactly been doing much to help itself since independence. It used to be Mzungu's forced tarimbo in the rear end. He was forced to move it, but we now get it---and appear to invite and welcome it---at both ends: taking Kung Fu tarimbo at one end, sucking Mzungu one at the other end. Economic enslavement all the way, all the time. And the hoi poloi are clamoring for more of it.
The recent Senegal story is typical ... African "leaders" helping West/East in looting Africa and enslaving black workers:
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/bbc-expos%C3%A9-on-10bn-deal-shows-bp-may-have-been-complicit-in-corruption/
What a world. After all that struggle for independence, and with all sorts of heroes, here we are. There is a Luo song, popular many years ago, that testifies to the situation: piny ose mer ("the world is drunk"/"the world is upside down"):
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Infrastructure follows production and not vice versa. Production attracts infrastructure. Production justifies it.
When British were building the lunatic line all the way to Kampala and beyond what we we producing.Stupid theories like those keep us down.You can use own savings o aka equity or leverage debt to grow
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I excluded electricity - because we have more or less bridged the deficit there. Maybe there is some little over-capacity - but we have invested 8-10B dollars there - mostly through PPP. You see we didn't have to invest any money. All we did was to give power producers 30yr guarantees - and they've poured their money to build infrastructure needed in power sector. In Lake Turkana Wind Power alone - they poured 71B kshs - about 1/4 of SGR cost that you guys keep shouting about.
See how we turned from having only 12% of the country connected to power (about 300,000 customers if I recall) to 7M plus customers of KPLC now (75% electricity access)?
We need to do the same for roads (move from 15% paved roads to 75% paved roads), railway (move from rickety 2,000kms to 20,000kms - including the metros, light rails, mono rails, underground rails, whatever....but make sure there are railways and trains running around the country.
All we need to do is grab the money in debt market...what is 100B dollars...even your employer at Pablo Alto can probably tap into such monies...and build small stupid kids games. If we were to borrow 100B dollars....with maturity of 50-100yrs...we would be paying back...about 1B dollars annually..with interest of say 2%.
Just imagine what 100B dollars can do. It can fix all our roads. It can fix all our water & sanitation(sewage) issues. It can fix our housing issues. It can also help us build light rail in Nairobi and Mombasa. It can help build us superhighway from Mombasa to Malaba - from Namanga to Moyale.From Lamu to Lodwar.
Once you have fixed the basic infrastructure - then you can talk about investment, production, tourism, minning, name it.
Yup - unless the infra is for humanitarian reasons - like the costly last-mile poor folks are yet to flip the switch - yet they continue burning wood. Superhighways and bypasses in metropolis while not as good as subways are ok investments because towns are centers of production. Traffic jams burn billions in man-hours and fuel. SGR is a vanity project with no economic justification. The 5Busd could have murrammed 50% of country roads in productive areas. Or build better schools. This is the real reason we need 50% federalism - priorities - and not because of Pundit's sour grapes over Gema betrayal of Ruto. Nanok would build granaries and boreholes as Kimemia murrams roads to Nyandarua potato farms. Hii ujinga ya Uhuru na Ruto is what we have instead.
The math and stats Pundit is running - about tarmack or iron kms - is just as a poor man wish-list of a house in Runda - does he borrow and pay later or work his butt off from Kibera? China and the Tigers EARNED the infra money by massive exports and forced slavish labor. The west looted African resources and enslaved black workers. Borrow & build is ignorance 101. And no, it is not "hardwork" which is Ruto's only punchline. Any lazy fool including old wheelchair-ridden Kibaki can borrow and lay steel or tarmack. It takes abit more THINKING to develop a nation.
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How do you produces without basic infrastructure? railway network of 500kms is causing ruckus? paved roads of mere 15,000kms. DRC congo has 24 trillion dollars of wealth buried in inaccessible forests. You need to fix the infrastructure first - otherwise investors will rush to where it easy to get stuff done. Nobody is dying to go to DRC Congo despite all that wealth buried there. They need to fix their infrastructure first...
There is alot of wealth buried underneath 3/4 of kenya that is semi-arid and arid - but nobody will be going to turkana - or mandera - unless we build the roads, the electricity, improve the security, provide water and towns...and then watch investors troop
Yes. One would think that the smart thing to do would be to produce and sell the stuff, so that there is something to pay for the infrastructure. But what if the plan is just to use the swanky infrastructure to ship in, say, loads of Chinese junk, with near-zero load in the other direction? Payment? Well, in these times---in which billions are "easy change in world debt market"---just borrow to pay debts. And keep at it ... more Eurobonds or whatever. Plus, don't forget: this stuff will last 100 or 200 years. Of course some "negative" people have doubts on this ... how long do roads last in Kenya, how long post-independence did it take to f**k up the railways while the Japanese refurbished much-older narrow gauge lines that achieve higher speeds than Kenya's shiny, brand-new? ... negativity!
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Mzungu invested in railways network of nearly 3000kms in kenya when kenya GDP was not even 1M dollars. That railway line gave rise to all current towns and economic corrindors. Nairobi literally grew from railway store or station..into the mega city it is turning out to be...and so have most of the other towns.
Long tales about corruption or politics or such noise being responsible for africa poverty is neither here or there.
Africa is poor coz it's poor. Everyone started poor. African are poor not because of corruption or politics or anything. They are poor because they were born poor.
And there is only one way to get out of poverty - to develop - to economically grow - and you only do that through investment for the future. You put some money today so the next generation will be better off. Investment in kids, in youths, in roads, in rails, in etc...is the only way forwards.
The west looted African resources and enslaved black workers.
True. But Africa hasn't exactly been doing much to help itself since independence. It used to be Mzungu's forced tarimbo in the rear end. He was forced to move it, but we now get it---and appear to invite and welcome it---at both ends: taking Kung Fu tarimbo at one end, sucking Mzungu one at the other end. Economic enslavement all the way, all the time. And the hoi poloi are clamoring for more of it.
The recent Senegal story is typical ... African "leaders" helping West/East in looting Africa and enslaving black workers:
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/bbc-expos%C3%A9-on-10bn-deal-shows-bp-may-have-been-complicit-in-corruption/
What a world. After all that struggle for independence, and with all sorts of heroes, here we are. There is a Luo song, popular many years ago, that testifies to the situation: piny ose mer ("the world is drunk"/"the world is upside down"):
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Yes. One would think that the smart thing to do would be to produce and sell the stuff, so that there is something to pay for the infrastructure. But what if the plan is just to use the swanky infrastructure to ship in, say, loads of Chinese junk, with near-zero load in the other direction? Payment? Well, in these times---in which billions are "easy change in world debt market"---just borrow to pay debts. And keep at it ... more Eurobonds or whatever. Plus, don't forget: this stuff will last 100 or 200 years. Of course some "negative" people have doubts on this ... how long do roads last in Kenya, how long post-independence did it take to f**k up the railways while the Japanese refurbished much-older narrow gauge lines that achieve higher speeds than Kenya's shiny, brand-new? ... negativity!
Well we call them Burgerbonds because of the efficiency with which the fallen Arap Rotich has been flipping them around. IMF -> China -> Exim Bank -> Eurobond -> .. like McDonald's burgers. Of course the interest outstrips the principal with time. According to Sudi, Rotich and Thugge burnt the midnight oil scheming how to flip debt. Sudi and RV Pundit cannot comprehend why such hardworking folks would be shown the door.
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Infrastructure follows production and not vice versa. Production attracts infrastructure. Production justifies it.
When British were building the lunatic line all the way to Kampala and beyond what we we producing.Stupid theories like those keep us down.You can use own savings o aka equity or leverage debt to grow
The Brits firstly meant to use the rail partly to exploit natural resources but more as a military asset. A colonial protectorate and looting network using slave Indian labor. The 1900 rail was meant to sync the EA coast to Lake Victoria - to cover all that British EA hinterland - to link with the Blue Nile all the way to the Mediterranean - to checkmate the Italians who were battling the Amharics in Abyssinia - the Germans in Tanganyika - and the Belgians in the Zaire. So you see you cannot use that mzungu analogy - it was the Scramble for Africa colonial strategy.
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Am currently in Kenya and my analysis is business is booming. The only thing missing is govt that plans and implements building of public structures- roads, schools, hospitals, etc.
also maintaining current systems seems to take less priority. Traffic is everywhere, and didn’t get caught in the rain. You’ll be soaked with mud.
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Very lame. What has now change? Have our natural resources suddenly disappeared with end of colonialism. We need to build the rail to quote you - exploit natural resources and also use it as military asset - against alshababa ad to open up hinterlands.
And we are luckly we have western world with a lot of wealth (debt market is huge) willing to lend as well as Chinese will also to lend.
And more important - we do not need to re-invent the wheel - just borrow and build - and then pay slowly for 50-100yrs.
Once you've build infrastructure - all you do for next 20 - 50 - 100 yrs is to maintain. US electrified in 1930s. They built express ways in 1950s - and all that basic infrastructure still exists. Just few maintenance here and there - for wear and tear.
The Brits firstly meant to use the rail partly to exploit natural resources but more as a military asset. A colonial protectorate and looting network using slave Indian labor. The 1900 rail was meant to sync the EA coast to Lake Victoria - to cover all that British EA hinterland - to link with the Blue Nile all the way to the Mediterranean - to checkmate the Italians who were battling the Amharics in Abyssinia - the Germans in Tanganyika - and the Belgians in the Zaire. So you see you cannot use that mzungu analogy - it was the Scramble for Africa colonial strategy.
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But if you listen to negativos - kenya is going down :) economy is in doldrums. It's been doing that since 2005 when Raila was booted from NARC.
Am currently in Kenya and my analysis is business is booming. The only thing missing is govt that plans and implements building of public structures- roads, schools, hospitals, etc.
also maintaining current systems seems to take less priority. Traffic is everywhere, and didn’t get caught in the rain. You’ll be soaked with mud.
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Infrastructure follows production and not vice versa. Production attracts infrastructure. Production justifies it.
When British were building the lunatic line all the way to Kampala and beyond what we we producing.Stupid theories like those keep us down.You can use own savings o aka equity or leverage debt to grow
The Brits firstly meant to use the rail partly to exploit natural resources but more as a military asset. A colonial protectorate and looting network using slave Indian labor. The 1900 rail was meant to sync the EA coast to Lake Victoria - to cover all that British EA hinterland - to link with the Blue Nile all the way to the Mediterranean - to checkmate the Italians who were battling the Amharics in Abyssinia - the Germans in Tanganyika - and the Belgians in the Zaire. So you see you cannot use that mzungu analogy - it was the Scramble for Africa colonial strategy.
From what I know, the Brits refused to invest and spend a dime in that whole area for ages. There were debates btw the Foreign office, the colonial office, and the Brits in East Africa who wanted support because no one could show viability. They considered the entire area poor and without resources until Germany started eyeing land up north from Tanganyika. Then they (the Brits) panicked about the prospect of Germany blocking access to Lake Victoria by the sea, so the Brits quickly went about colonizing that whole area between the Lake and the Sea. That Lake was all important to them because of their REAL great prize up north (Egypt), they were never gonna let Germany get in the way of that, and everyone back then thought the Nile was entirely dependant on the Lake. After they determined to acquire us, they decided to try make some money off our land via farming etc, and they needed the rail to transport their people and their products.
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Long term thinking. Tanzania are building SGR just after kenya did - precisely for same petty reasons - but you can never go wrong with infrastructure.
The Brits firstly meant to use the rail partly to exploit natural resources but more as a military asset. A colonial protectorate and looting network using slave Indian labor. The 1900 rail was meant to sync the EA coast to Lake Victoria - to cover all that British EA hinterland - to link with the Blue Nile all the way to the Mediterranean - to checkmate the Italians who were battling the Amharics in Abyssinia - the Germans in Tanganyika - and the Belgians in the Zaire. So you see you cannot use that mzungu analogy - it was the Scramble for Africa colonial strategy.
From what I know, the Brits refused to invest and spend a dime in that whole area for ages. There were debates btw the Foreign office, the colonial office, and the Brits in East Africa who wanted support because no one could show viability. They considered the entire area poor and without resources until Germany started eyeing land up north from Tanganyika. Then they (the Brits) panicked about the prospect of Germany blocking access to Lake Victoria by the sea, so the Brits quickly went about colonizing that whole area between the Lake and the Sea. That Lake was all important to them because of their REAL great prize up north (Egypt), they were never gonna let Germany get in the way of that, and everyone back then thought the Nile was entirely dependant on the Lake. After they determined to acquire us, they decided to try make some money off our land via farming etc, and they needed the rail to transport their people and their products.
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I am slowly becoming a convert.
15% of roads are paved leaving 85% dirt rough road.We have railway network of 2000kms and we are arguing over that...while South Africa has what 30,000kms of rail.I think more than 70% of Kenyans do not have access to piped water.About 50% of urban residents are living in slums.There is huge infrastructure deficit that needs bridging.The good thing once you lay down the infrastructure you reap for like 100 or 200yrs.So why not borrow 100B dollars in say a 50yr or even 100 yrs century bond and fix all these issues once and for all...and let the future generations pay for it.But you want to argue about 5B dollars in 600kms rail.We need to dream big .100B is easy change in world debt market...then supliment by selling most of the parastals.With such monies we can completely eliminate dirty roads, dirty water, ensure every county has railway link, ensure every police or school or hospital looks decent, have superhighways and expressways every where...
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Infrastructure follows production and not vice versa. Production attracts infrastructure. Production justifies it.
When British were building the lunatic line all the way to Kampala and beyond what we we producing.Stupid theories like those keep us down.You can use own savings o aka equity or leverage debt to grow
Don’t be silly. They were building so they can plunder the interior. You are from what, Bomet or Nandi or a Kericho?
Supposing they put SGR in every ward and dual carriages crisscrossing your county. They put the best hpmodern hospitals money can buy. Then what? Will your county’s productivity shoot? What do you guys produce, tea? How much productivity will these roads,rail lines and bridges yield?
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Mzungu invested in railways network of nearly 3000kms in kenya when kenya GDP was not even 1M dollars. That railway line gave rise to all current towns and economic corrindors. Nairobi literally grew from railway store or station..into the mega city it is turning out to be...and so have most of the other towns.
Long tales about corruption or politics or such noise being responsible for africa poverty is neither here or there.
Africa is poor coz it's poor. Everyone started poor. African are poor not because of corruption or politics or anything. They are poor because they were born poor.
And there is only one way to get out of poverty - to develop - to economically grow - and you only do that through investment for the future. You put some money today so the next generation will be better off. Investment in kids, in youths, in roads, in rails, in etc...is the only way forwards.
The west looted African resources and enslaved black workers.
True. But Africa hasn't exactly been doing much to help itself since independence. It used to be Mzungu's forced tarimbo in the rear end. He was forced to move it, but we now get it---and appear to invite and welcome it---at both ends: taking Kung Fu tarimbo at one end, sucking Mzungu one at the other end. Economic enslavement all the way, all the time. And the hoi poloi are clamoring for more of it.
The recent Senegal story is typical ... African "leaders" helping West/East in looting Africa and enslaving black workers:
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/bbc-expos%C3%A9-on-10bn-deal-shows-bp-may-have-been-complicit-in-corruption/
What a world. After all that struggle for independence, and with all sorts of heroes, here we are. There is a Luo song, popular many years ago, that testifies to the situation: piny ose mer ("the world is drunk"/"the world is upside down"):
Pundit says tuache story yet he's spinning tall tales here. Kenya's lunatic express was not an investment of the Kenya nation but the investment in a British province. Kenya's GDP at that time is totally irrelevant. What was Britain's GDP in 1895?
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Don’t be silly. They were building so they can plunder the interior. You are from what, Bomet or Nandi or a Kericho?
Supposing they put SGR in every ward and dual carriages crisscrossing your county. They put the best hpmodern hospitals money can buy. Then what? Will your county’s productivity shoot? What do you guys produce, tea? How much productivity will these roads,rail lines and bridges yield?
Pundit's is wilful ignorance cause UhuRuto. As if there is gold, diamond or ruby yet to be discovered that must be ferried by SGR. I saw Tuju on K24 or somewhere lamenting how noone in Africa can build a mulika mwizi. You need to produce hitec products to justify shiny rail - and the trailers would still beat it in fares. So long as we only produce rock bottom value tea and flowers or raw minerals - murram roads are all we need for rural and subway or efficient tarmac network in big towns.
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If Uhuru wanted to develop Kenya he would start by lowering power cost to bring us at par with Ethiopia or Egypt, or very close to that. You have no idea how many manufacturers would be willing to look the other way at our poor infrastructure, corruption just to enjoy our relatively liberal economy and safety.
He could do this by trashing IPP contracts with Kengen and suing the energy barons for all they got. Next he could ensure new IPP contracts are competitive and above board. Of course he can’t and that explains in part why our manufacturing is not growing. Pundito imagines sudden superhighways with killer guardrails would defy economics. How ?
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vooke - manufacturing is DoA in Kenya with the unions and labor courts. That and the new last-miles to nowhere that ensure power will remain uncompetitive for a decade is toxic combo the Dangotes won't touch with a 10ft pole. Even the Merali Yana Tyres bolted from the Mombasa Road SEZ to Pakistan.
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Don’t be silly. They were building so they can plunder the interior. You are from what, Bomet or Nandi or a Kericho?
Supposing they put SGR in every ward and dual carriages crisscrossing your county. They put the best hpmodern hospitals money can buy. Then what? Will your county’s productivity shoot? What do you guys produce, tea? How much productivity will these roads,rail lines and bridges yield?
The Kenyan SGR is definitely good for bringing in the results of Chinese productivity etc. What it has to do with production of anything in Kenya is unclear. As far as I can tell, what we have that are of interest to others are tea, wild animals, good runners, and perhaps flowers. I don't see how the SGR will help with any of those. Perhaps our resident Chief Economist & Developer can give examples of how the shiny SGR is unleashing (or will unleash) hitherto unknown powers to produce anything useful ...
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The Kenyan SGR is definitely good for bringing in the results of Chinese productivity etc. What it has to do with production of anything in Kenya is unclear. As far as I can tell, what we have that are of interest to others are tea, wild animals, good runners, and perhaps flowers. I don't see how the SGR will help with any of those. Perhaps our resident Chief Economist & Developer can give examples of how the shiny SGR is unleashing (or will unleash) hitherto unknown powers to produce anything useful ...
It is whispered in certain western and Sinosceptic quarters that the intent is colonial. To a) easy extract of raw materials for Chinese industry and b) what you point out as easy transit of Chinese imports to Africa - and the Latin Americas plus some Asian countries. Basically Chinaman is the new missionary in the 3rd world.
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And we are luckly we have western world with a lot of wealth (debt market is huge) willing to lend as well as Chinese will also to lend.
Really? Last I heard, Kenyans---and none other than their "leaders"---went to Beijing with an "it's in the bag" attitude and papers ready to sign (according to the Transportation CS) for yet more SGR nonsense. I understand they were sent home empty-handed and told that even Kung Fu is not that keen on throwing good money after bad. The luck ran out or what? And is the "western world" now going to step in there? (I might have missed the news.)
And more important - we do not need to re-invent the wheel - just borrow and build - and then pay slowly for 50-100yrs.
African countries should be thinking of ways to get out of economic enslavement by others, not eagerly rushing into another 50-100 years of it.
And borrow from who and for what? A two-billion $ bond, but nobody can tell you what it was used for. Solution? Borrow some more. How dumb can people get.
Once you've build infrastructure - all you do for next 20 - 50 - 100 yrs is to maintain. US electrified in 1930s. They built express ways in 1950s - and all that basic infrastructure still exists. Just few maintenance here and there - for wear and tear.
If so, then Kenya has already failed (and for 60+ years has been failing) Infrastructure 101.
How long do roads last in Kenya?
Japan, when it could afford to do so, built SGR lines for "bullet trains" for passengers. The old narrow-gauge lines, which of course were properly maintained, were simply refurnished and are now used for cargo. And guess what ... the trains on those are faster than the ones on Kenya's new-and-shiny, debt-inducing SGR. When the EAC Railway Consortium, which seems to be slowly disintegrating these days, was coming up with the Grand Plans, their Japanese consultant told them that they didn't need new lines ... just spruce up the old ones and change a few things. But stupidity or eating opportunities---I still can't tell which--seem to have won.
Before the building of the SGR started, we were endlessly told that using it would be so cheap that everyone and their mutt would willingly rush to use it (over road) and it would also make money. (The archives of nipate.org has a whole bunch of its share on this, including cost figures that, as I pointed out, were no more than admitted wild guesses by GoK's Canadian consultants.) Well, here we are today: people are being forced to use it, and there is still no sign that it will make money.
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Nobody is dying to go to DRC Congo despite all that wealth buried there. They need to fix their infrastructure first...
Nobody is dying to go DRC for any reason. Nor should (or will) anybody in his or her right mind ... because people in the DRC are already dying from wanton murders, rapes, larceny, ... whatever "war-time" atrocity you can think of. Has been going on for years, with no end in sight. But, of course, those in power there (the Africans) can always manage to get at some of that wealth and use it to buy whatever they need to continue the mindless mayhem. Their problems, my friend, have little to do "oh, if only we could borrow some money and have some spanking new roads and rails!". That's how I see it. But if you have some ideas on how roads and rails would turn them around, then let's have them.
There is alot of wealth buried underneath 3/4 of kenya that is semi-arid and arid - but nobody will be going to turkana - or mandera - unless we build the roads, the electricity, improve the security, provide water and towns...and then watch investors troop
No shit. And no SGR to Turkana and Mandera yet? Can you provide details on this "a lot of wealth"?
By the way, if there is indeed "a lot of wealth" there, but for all these 60+ years Kenyans have been begging abroad and handing themselves over to economic slavery, instead of going to grab that "a lot of wealth", then they are even dumber than is suggested by some of the "development" theories being promoted to justify the SGR.
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Japan, when it could afford to do so, built SGR lines for "bullet trains" for passengers. The old narrow-gauge lines, which of course were properly maintained, were simply refurnished and are now used for cargo. And guess what ... the trains on those are faster than the ones on Kenya's new-and-shiny, debt-inducing SGR. When the EAC Railway Consortium, which seems to be slowly disintegrating these days, was coming up with the Grand Plans, their Japanese consultant told them that they didn't need new lines ... just spruce up the old ones and change a few things. But stupidity or eating opportunities---I still can't tell which--seem to have won.
A link to this might convince Pundit, seeing the empirical evidence of the SGR's actual performance won't move him. I'm not holding my breath.
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It is whispered in certain western and Sinosceptic quarters that the intent is colonial. To a) easy extract of raw materials for Chinese industry and b) what you point out as easy transit of Chinese imports to Africa - and the Latin Americas plus some Asian countries. Basically Chinaman is the new missionary in the 3rd world.
Both, I think. With (a) more important than (b), because on a global scale China exports "peanuts" to Africa and does not think Africans have (or will any soon have) the financial capability to change that any time soon. To my mind, more important than (a) or (b) is the issue of geo-political power for its own sake, something that is really, really important for the Chinese given the way they were in the past brutalized by Western powers and even more by the Japanese.
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A link to this might convince Pundit, seeing the empirical evidence of the SGR's actual performance won't move him. I'm not holding my breath.
All in the nipate.org archives. RV Pundit should easily remember them, because he was the one peddling GoK's financial figures, and I was the one pointing out---with links and what-not----that the base figures were only a "reasonable" guess from the Canadian Consultants. In any case, one of the things I "admire"about RV Pundit is that he won't allow facts and empirical evidence to get in the way. That's exactly what is needed for the first rank of cannon fodder ... the clueless "avant garde" ... interesting debate.
Another "famous" bogus "figure": For quite a while there was this claim that the SGR would account for 1.5% annual GDP growth (i.e. almost one-fourth of the annual 6-7%) in perpetuity. That was another case of an enthusiastic GoK type "misunderstanding" (actually just promoting a questionable/eating venture) and running away with statements from IMF/World-Bank types, which simply had something to do with the loan amounts relative to GDP. Then, after some feedback, it got dropped from "in perpetuity" to "during construction". Then it just got totally dropped after the first year of construction.
Here's why GoK dropped such statements after the first year of SGR construction: Look at the annual figures from KNBS. They won't tell you where SGR comes in precisely, but they will tell you it's under "building and construction", which includes a whole bunch of stuff. For simplicity, just assume that the SGR during construction was 100% of "building and construction" in Kenya. You will still have serious problems getting to the 1.5%. Gok types quickly dropped that figure, but they were thrown around on nipate,org for quite some time.
So, what exactly---as in concrete figures---does the SGR contribute to the economy. Nobody has a clue. And, this time, nobody is willing to look silly. Best guess ... it will pay off in 100-200 years.
P.S: While writing the above, I thought I' take a look at latest reports on onwards-and-upwards, as given by the KNBS. You will find some under the "leading economic indicator reports", here: https://www.knbs.or.ke/data-releases/
In the March 2019 (monthly report), for our latest progress on "Manufacturing, Building, and Construction", we have these highlights (page v):
The quantity of cement produced increased from 470,146 MT in February 2019 to 507,037 MT in March 2019. Consumption of cement rose from 469,809 MT in February 2019 to 505,465 MT in March 2019. Sugar production decreased from 53,060 Metric tonnes in January 2019 to 46,139 Metric tonnes in February 2019. Production of assembled vehicles decreased from 476 units in November 2018 to 327 units in December 2019. Milk uptake in the formal sector dropped from 46.55 million litres in February 2019 to 44.03 million litres in March 2019.
A bunch of cement, some assembled vehicles, sugar, and milk. Sugar and milk. That's our sort of big-stuff in manufacturing? And didn't Moi already give us all the milk---free--that we need? Still, if people aren't buying more locally produced vehicles, they are at least drinking more milk. Milk is health is prosperity. And love, peace , and unity.
And, no, looking at other, earlier, KNBS reports won't yield much happier fare to support anything to do with the SGR ... You will look at the stuff for which "increases"/"decreases" are considered worth reporting, and you will think "Seriously? What the blank! And the story about industrializing or whatever by 2030... The Vision?"
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Don’t be silly. They were building so they can plunder the interior. You are from what, Bomet or Nandi or a Kericho?
Supposing they put SGR in every ward and dual carriages crisscrossing your county. They put the best hpmodern hospitals money can buy. Then what? Will your county’s productivity shoot? What do you guys produce, tea? How much productivity will these roads,rail lines and bridges yield?
The Kenyan SGR is definitely good for bringing in the results of Chinese productivity etc. What it has to do with production of anything in Kenya is unclear. As far as I can tell, what we have that are of interest to others are tea, wild animals, good runners, and perhaps flowers. I don't see how the SGR will help with any of those. Perhaps our resident Chief Economist & Developer can give examples of how the shiny SGR is unleashing (or will unleash) hitherto unknown powers to produce anything useful ...
If he was talking of rail lime to Turkana to help convey our tiny oil reserves he'd make some sense. But the amounts are so small that for once I support Jubilee for not bothering with a pipeline. The truckers probably do just as fine.
If we had good trade surplus like China we could fund all our fantasies debt free. In this case there would be minimal credit risk and zero interest obligations. But we have to borrow in USD finite amounts of expensive credit that are dwindling. Who wants to squander more of their 'last bullet' on nothing but hope that somewhat bogus investments will magically yield returns?
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Pundit is just living in his own world. If you borrow, you have to pay back. How will Kenya pay back the loans without having the means of production to be able to make revenue to pay back the loans? A classic example is the SGR. Now the government has to come up with terms that reminds people of socialist regimes.
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It very silly to imagine that gov exist to make profit or invest like private sector with an eye on productivity and making money. Gov invest in roads so people can drive comfortably - because gov get taxes.
The discourse is simple. Gov can wait to get money from your taxes - and build the roads slowly - like it's doing - now . Or they can leverage - borrow - and build the road now - and pay using your taxes - the debt over a long period of time.
The problem is our gov is borrowing short term - when it can borrow tonnes of money from debt market long term.
We are now in Eurobond - I am saying we need to start going Century Bonds. Ghana is thinking of floating 50B dollar century bond to fix their infrastructure deficit.
If we borrow 100B dollars - for 100yrs - that is merely 1B per annum to be repaid plus interest. Very little money for kenya. SportPesa taxes alone can fix that.
What kind of roads will bomet need - basically tarmac in all the road network - low seal mostly - and I expect to have express way from bomet to Nairobi - I don't expect to stay in jam - I also expect rail line in bomet - I expect a oil pipeline in bomet - I want all schools, hospitals and name them to look like what you have in developed world.
. They were building so they can plunder the interior. You are from what, Bomet or Nandi or a Kericho?
Supposing they put SGR in every ward and dual carriages crisscrossing your county. They put the best hpmodern hospitals money can buy. Then what? Will your county’s productivity shoot? What do you guys produce, tea? How much productivity will these roads,rail lines and bridges yield?
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Gov is not like you or me or private sector. Kenya gov will exist for many centuries. There is a lot of free money....see how we get Eurobond without much of a sweat....all we need to do is ask. Ghana are thinking about borrowing 50B Century Bond. Germany build it's infrastructure from such long term debts.
If we borrow 200B - dollars - it mere 2B dollar principal per year - using simple interest...even if you load interest...and compoud it...it not alot of money.
SGR that you're complaining now will still be alive in 2150 or and BEYOND.
Stop thinking SMALL like typical african. Stop thinking SHORT TERM like typical african.
Pundit is just living in his own world. If you borrow, you have to pay back. How will Kenya pay back the loans without having the means of production to be able to make revenue to pay back the loans? A classic example is the SGR. Now the government has to come up with terms that reminds people of socialist regimes.
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We cannot start trashing IPP - and international contracts. You're being very very silly. We need to be in good books. That is why we paid Angloleasing to unlock Eurobond. Because we are in good books - we can now borrow century bond like Ghana are thinking.
The issue of power has been dealt with here....we had a problem of access....we need to fix that. There is a lot of upfront investment needed to build the distribution network and make sures that everyone has electricity everywhere.We do not want manufactures in one small corner of the country....we want them everywhere.
Now that we are nearly sorting that problem....we will focus next on COST of POWER....we have excess capacity that we can now sell cheaply....and that is what is happening already with night time tariff.
If you prefer ethiopia - where everyone else is in darkness - a few chinese factories are consuming cheap power - then something is wrong with you. everyone in kenya deserve power...before we go to manufacturers.
If Uhuru wanted to develop Kenya he would start by lowering power cost to bring us at par with Ethiopia or Egypt, or very close to that. You have no idea how many manufacturers would be willing to look the other way at our poor infrastructure, corruption just to enjoy our relatively liberal economy and safety.
He could do this by trashing IPP contracts with Kengen and suing the energy barons for all they got. Next he could ensure new IPP contracts are competitive and above board. Of course he can’t and that explains in part why our manufacturing is not growing. Pundito imagines sudden superhighways with killer guardrails would defy economics. How ?
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You have two options. Use your own money (equity) or leverage someone money & pay interests. If you use your own money - then you'll be building 1km a time...if you borrow...you can fix the issues...enjoy the benefits now.
Please please gov does not exist to make profit. Public investment are for public good. If SGR has for example saved time, energy, accidents, or any other esoteric benefits....it already achieved it's objective. There are more than 3M passenger rides already..zero accidents..zero delays...zero stress...that enjoy air conditioned stress free travel btw nairobi and mombasa. You see tourist lining up in those trains. Life btw Nairobi & Mombasa has become very easy breezy. SGR therefore is already a huge sucess.
Private sector thinking when we have having public investment debate. If gov went around thinking of what is profitable..it would never build anything...because most public investment ROI is doubtful.
Kenya gov owes me a good road, water, electricity and all the basic services. I work hard, make profit and give them % of the money for that.
If he was talking of rail lime to Turkana to help convey our tiny oil reserves he'd make some sense. But the amounts are so small that for once I support Jubilee for not bothering with a pipeline. The truckers probably do just as fine.
If we had good trade surplus like China we could fund all our fantasies debt free. In this case there would be minimal credit risk and zero interest obligations. But we have to borrow in USD finite amounts of expensive credit that are dwindling. Who wants to squander more of their 'last bullet' on nothing but hope that somewhat bogus investments will magically yield returns?
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SGR is great. We have threads to debate that.
All in the nipate.org archives. RV Pundit should easily remember them, because he was the one peddling GoK's financial figures, and I was the one pointing out---with links and what-not----that the base figures were only a "reasonable" guess from the Canadian Consultants. In any case, one of the things I "admire"about RV Pundit is that he won't allow facts and empirical evidence to get in the way. That's exactly what is needed for the first rank of cannon fodder ... the clueless "avant garde" ... interesting debate.
Another "famous" bogus "figure": For quite a while there was this claim that the SGR would account for 1.5% annual GDP growth (i.e. almost one-fourth of the annual 6-7%) in perpetuity. That was another case of an enthusiastic GoK type "misunderstanding" (actually just promoting a questionable/eating venture) and running away with statements from IMF/World-Bank types, which simply had something to do with the loan amounts relative to GDP. Then, after some feedback, it got dropped from "in perpetuity" to "during construction". Then it just got totally dropped after the first year of construction.
Here's why GoK dropped such statements after the first year of SGR construction: Look at the annual figures from KNBS. They won't tell you where SGR comes in precisely, but they will tell you it's under "building and construction", which includes a whole bunch of stuff. For simplicity, just assume that the SGR during construction was 100% of "building and construction" in Kenya. You will still have serious problems getting to the 1.5%. Gok types quickly dropped that figure, but they were thrown around on nipate,org for quite some time.
So, what exactly---as in concrete figures---does the SGR contribute to the economy. Nobody has a clue. And, this time, nobody is willing to look silly. Best guess ... it will pay off in 100-200 years.
P.S: While writing the above, I thought I' take a look at latest reports on onwards-and-upwards, as given by the KNBS. You will find some under the "leading economic indicator reports", here: https://www.knbs.or.ke/data-releases/
In the March 2019 (monthly report), for our latest progress on "Manufacturing, Building, and Construction", we have these highlights (page v):
The quantity of cement produced increased from 470,146 MT in February 2019 to 507,037 MT in March 2019. Consumption of cement rose from 469,809 MT in February 2019 to 505,465 MT in March 2019. Sugar production decreased from 53,060 Metric tonnes in January 2019 to 46,139 Metric tonnes in February 2019. Production of assembled vehicles decreased from 476 units in November 2018 to 327 units in December 2019. Milk uptake in the formal sector dropped from 46.55 million litres in February 2019 to 44.03 million litres in March 2019.
A bunch of cement, some assembled vehicles, sugar, and milk. Sugar and milk. That's our sort of big-stuff in manufacturing? And didn't Moi already give us all the milk---free--that we need? Still, if people aren't buying more locally produced vehicles, they are at least drinking more milk. Milk is health is prosperity. And love, peace , and unity.
And, no, looking at other, earlier, KNBS reports won't yield much happier fare to support anything to do with the SGR ... You will look at the stuff for which "increases"/"decreases" are considered worth reporting, and you will think "Seriously? What the blank! And the story about industrializing or whatever by 2030... The Vision?"
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Nobody spoke about profits. Government has limited resources to please people. They have to expend them wisely. This is why there is no SGR to Moyale from Isiolo for instance. There has to be value derived in expenditure. The higher value the better. You are imagining that mere infrastructure can stir up productivity but that’s fantasy.
It very silly to imagine that gov exist to make profit or invest like private sector with an eye on productivity and making money. Gov invest in roads so people can drive comfortably - because gov get taxes.
The discourse is simple. Gov can wait to get money from your taxes - and build the roads slowly - like it's doing - now . Or they can leverage - borrow - and build the road now - and pay using your taxes - the debt over a long period of time.
The problem is our gov is borrowing short term - when it can borrow tonnes of money from debt market long term.
We are now in Eurobond - I am saying we need to start going Century Bonds. Ghana is thinking of floating 50B dollar century bond to fix their infrastructure deficit.
If we borrow 100B dollars - for 100yrs - that is merely 1B per annum to be repaid plus interest. Very little money for kenya. SportPesa taxes alone can fix that.
What kind of roads will bomet need - basically tarmac in all the road network - low seal mostly - and I expect to have express way from bomet to Nairobi - I don't expect to stay in jam - I also expect rail line in bomet - I expect a oil pipeline in bomet - I want all schools, hospitals and name them to look like what you have in developed world.
. They were building so they can plunder the interior. You are from what, Bomet or Nandi or a Kericho?
Supposing they put SGR in every ward and dual carriages crisscrossing your county. They put the best hpmodern hospitals money can buy. Then what? Will your county’s productivity shoot? What do you guys produce, tea? How much productivity will these roads,rail lines and bridges yield?
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Distribution and cost are not mutually exclusive. What Jubilee has done is ensure power remains prohibitively out of reach. While Raia acces is commendable, the cost pushes industries away. You can’t just sell excess cheaply and ululate, there is a cost to that excess capacity that is subsidized by your taxes. Think
We cannot start trashing IPP - and international contracts. You're being very very silly. We need to be in good books. That is why we paid Angloleasing to unlock Eurobond. Because we are in good books - we can now borrow century bond like Ghana are thinking.
The issue of power has been dealt with here....we had a problem of access....we need to fix that. There is a lot of upfront investment needed to build the distribution network and make sures that everyone has electricity everywhere.We do not want manufactures in one small corner of the country....we want them everywhere.
Now that we are nearly sorting that problem....we will focus next on COST of POWER....we have excess capacity that we can now sell cheaply....and that is what is happening already with night time tariff.
If you prefer ethiopia - where everyone else is in darkness - a few chinese factories are consuming cheap power - then something is wrong with you. everyone in kenya deserve power...before we go to manufacturers.
If Uhuru wanted to develop Kenya he would start by lowering power cost to bring us at par with Ethiopia or Egypt, or very close to that. You have no idea how many manufacturers would be willing to look the other way at our poor infrastructure, corruption just to enjoy our relatively liberal economy and safety.
He could do this by trashing IPP contracts with Kengen and suing the energy barons for all they got. Next he could ensure new IPP contracts are competitive and above board. Of course he can’t and that explains in part why our manufacturing is not growing. Pundito imagines sudden superhighways with killer guardrails would defy economics. How ?
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Dude you're giving fake examples. We have INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT as of now. Yes we need rail to moyale - because trade with Ethiopia - will bring in lots of cheap stuff. We have LAPSET 22B dollars worth of deficit to plug. We needs rural tarmac roads. We need roads in urban areas.
Our infrastructure deficit is well studied. Google around. I think annually we have about 2-4B dollars of deficit to plug. Borrow 100B dollars..and you plug huge deficit.
Nobody spoke about profits. Government has limited resources to please people. They have to expend them wisely. This is why there is no SGR to Moyale from Isiolo for instance. There has to be value derived in expenditure. The higher value the better. You are imagining that mere infrastructure can stir up productivity but that’s fantasy.
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But when we want to put in cheap coal plants...enviromentalist go gaga. Our electricity is expensive because we are using expensive sources. Coal is cheap...about 1-2 cents...hydro is cheap..at 3 cents..but we are just in semi-arid region with few rivers..so hyrdo is out.
Anyway this conversation to have now. Put up Coal and Natural Gas plants.....and lower electricity. But first let thermal power IPP run out.
And you cannot just fix power - you need to fix the infrastructure - bad roads, lack of rail, and lack of water & sewage - will make manufacturing impossible.
In short you need to tick many boxes.
Distribution and cost are not mutually exclusive. What Jubilee has done is ensure power remains prohibitively out of reach. While Raia acces is commendable, the cost pushes industries away. You can’t just sell excess cheaply and ululate, there is a cost to that excess capacity that is subsidized by your taxes. Think
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But when we want to put in cheap coal plants...enviromentalist go gaga. Our electricity is expensive because we are using expensive sources. Coal is cheap...about 1-2 cents...hydro is cheap..at 3 cents..but we are just in semi-arid region with few rivers..so hyrdo is out.
Anyway this conversation to have now. Put up Coal and Natural Gas plants.....and lower electricity. But first let thermal power IPP run out.
And you cannot just fix power - you need to fix the infrastructure - bad roads, lack of rail, and lack of water & sewage - will make manufacturing impossible.
In short you need to tick many boxes.
Distribution and cost are not mutually exclusive. What Jubilee has done is ensure power remains prohibitively out of reach. While Raia acces is commendable, the cost pushes industries away. You can’t just sell excess cheaply and ululate, there is a cost to that excess capacity that is subsidized by your taxes. Think
The contracts are as opaque as SGR and binding for sijui how many years. Coal won’t bring cheap power, if it would they would have shared the power pricing
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International contracts are international contracts. Unless we can prove corruption, they stand. Anything else will be setting a country on a slippery slope. Like Tanzanai demanding obscene taxes from Acacia.
We have to respect and honour international financial obligations. Anglo leasing was paid for that. There are innocent buyers of debts out there - and people want to trust contracts.
You refuse to pay - and you'll never borrow.
The contracts are as opaque as SGR and binding for sijui how many years. Coal won’t bring cheap power, if it would they would have shared the power pricing
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Actually, international contracts don't necessarily need to be upheld- this is a gamble international investors make but if someone in Kenya doesn't honor the agreement then there's nothing to enforce this agreement in Kenya. I'm starting to make sense of
the perpetual loss ODM experiences politically. ODM values customary law and treats agreements like MoUs with reciprocity, whereas the current coalition treats contracts like toilet paper the same way the West treat international contracts. Loot and loot.
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Dear RV Pundit - Kenya is a capitalist state - not socialist. Your argument is faulty.
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Empty sloganeering.Socialist state doesn't have a private sector.Here we are talking public investment in infrastructure through long term debt.We are shifting the conversation from Eurobond to Century bonds like Ghana
Dear RV Pundit - Kenya is a capitalist state - not socialist. Your argument is faulty.
Dear RV Pundit - Kenya is a capitalist state - not socialist. Your argument is faulty.
Dear RV Pundit - Kenya is a capitalist state - not socialist. Your argument is faulty.
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Ghana is now a role model :(
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Yes the fastest growing economy in the world this year.
Ghana is now a role model :(
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Yes the fastest growing economy in the world this year
Ghana started exporting oil some years back and within three years had to release Eurobonds in order to fix the holes in its budget. Bad example of how to run an economy.
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Ghana has been growing rapidly except few years when growth dropped to 4% (our normal) - otherwise they have grown at near 10% - and are going to become a middle income country soon.Zambia and Ghana pioneered floating Eurobond - and now we need to go big - go for 50 yr or 100yr loan.
Ghana started exporting oil some years back and within three years had to release Eurobonds in order to fix the holes in its budget. Bad example of how to run an economy.
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Ghana growth from 2013 to 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/ghana-economic-growth-slows-in-2018-as-oil-expansion-cools in 2018 ghana gdp growth was 6.3% vs kenya 6.1% . What's eerily similar is ghana borrowing and spending in 2013 before crashing to 2.9% and 2.2% growth before IMF bailout to Kenya GDP growth and debt now. Ghana is a commodity driven economy.
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Yes but it's not only Ghana who have done this. Most developed country we know of developed by tapping the near bottomless international debt market - with investors happy to get 1 or 2% per annum.
We began as country from depending on Aid from Britain, then we started borrowing small loans from IMF & WB, then WB/IMF became political tools for US & Europeans - and we had to build domestic debt market, China also happened with IMF/WB like loans, and then we realized we were crowding domestic debt market & we didn't have to beg IMF/WB, and have started floating Eurobonds.
Now we need to think like Ghana ...and start taking HUGE 50 or 100 yrs loans. It's no brainer for me. With such monies...we can bridge the infrastructure deficit...and grow the economy at double digit.
https://www.reuters.com/article/ghana-bond/update-1-ghana-may-issue-50-bln-century-bond-president-idUSL8N1VP1BJ
Ghana growth from 2013 to 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/ghana-economic-growth-slows-in-2018-as-oil-expansion-cools in 2018 ghana gdp growth was 6.3% vs kenya 6.1% . What's eerily similar is ghana borrowing and spending in 2013 before crashing to 2.9% and 2.2% growth before IMF bailout to Kenya GDP growth and debt now. Ghana is a commodity driven economy.
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Even someone in UK is lamenting why they can't issues such long-dated bonds?
https://www.ftadviser.com/opinion/2019/07/12/will-the-uk-issue-a-century-bond/
Just think of the great infrastructure projects, health investment and educational advancements that could be supported – to say nothing about starting to address unfunded public sector pensions.
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Yes but it's not only Ghana who have done this. Most developed country we know of developed by tapping the near bottomless international debt market - with investors happy to get 1 or 2% per annum.
We began as country from depending on Aid from Britain, then we started borrowing small loans from IMF & WB, then WB/IMF became political tools for US & Europeans - and we had to build domestic debt market, China also happened with IMF/WB like loans, and then we realized we were crowding domestic debt market & we didn't have to beg IMF/WB, and have started floating Eurobonds.
Now we need to think like Ghana ...and start taking HUGE 50 or 100 yrs loans. It's no brainer for me. With such monies...we can bridge the infrastructure deficit...and grow the economy at double digit.
https://www.reuters.com/article/ghana-bond/update-1-ghana-may-issue-50-bln-century-bond-president-idUSL8N1VP1BJ
Ghana growth from 2013 to 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-17/ghana-economic-growth-slows-in-2018-as-oil-expansion-cools in 2018 ghana gdp growth was 6.3% vs kenya 6.1% . What's eerily similar is ghana borrowing and spending in 2013 before crashing to 2.9% and 2.2% growth before IMF bailout to Kenya GDP growth and debt now. Ghana is a commodity driven economy.
There are no investors willing to lend to poor african countries at a rate of 1-2%. Ghana 31yr bond has interest of 9% and if they go for 50yr it'll be in the 11-12% ballpark. Bottom line we need to produce more stuff, from commodities to finished goods. Its counterproductive to borrow heavily raising interest rates, taxes and debt, hampering the productivity that the said infrastructure is suppose to facilitate. Its like a farmer spending all his money to build a barn and have no money left to farm.
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Hk, but locally we are happy to float treasury bonds at those rates.The only risk I see is exogenous FX risk.If they give us 100b for 10%.. that way better than borrowing the same domestically..and just mark timming.This would injection of FDI...and if we tie to infrastructure it will pay for itself.We cannot force the current generation to fund a rail line that will last 200yrs.That is robbing the present to fund future.Most of public investment are long term in nature.My theory there is a lot of money out there just waiting to be grabbed...stupid silicon valley companies are snapping them.. African countries with real assets have to beg imf or Chinese.I am happy jubilee pioneered Eurobond like Moi built the domestic market..we need to go big and plug the infrastructure deficit...build superhighways, expressways, mega cities and really dream big.Worse case we default..they cannot unplug the roads, the rails .Greece or Argentina still pretty decent and developed .We will dictate to them..take or leave.So we got no risk.. except the risk of dreaming big.I know Ruto will do this.
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Hk, but locally we are happy to float treasury bonds at those rates.The only risk I see is exogenous FX risk.If they give us 100b for 10%.. that way better than borrowing the same domestically..and just mark timming.This would injection of FDI...and if we tie to infrastructure it will pay for itself.We cannot force the current generation to fund a rail line that will last 200yrs.That is robbing the present to fund future.Most of public investment are long term in nature.My theory there is a lot of money out there just waiting to be grabbed...stupid silicon valley companies are snapping them.. African countries with real assets have to beg imf or Chinese.I am happy jubilee pioneered Eurobond like Moi built the domestic market..we need to go big and plug the infrastructure deficit...build superhighways, expressways, mega cities and really dream big.Worse case we default..they cannot unplug the roads, the rails .Greece or Argentina still pretty decent and developed .We will dictate to them..take or leave.So we got no risk.. except the risk of dreaming big.I know Ruto will do this.
Greece and argentina were plenty developed before defaulting. Kenya treasury bill rates for 10yr is about 12%. The government should be working to lower this to about 5%. Which means cutting budget deficit, borrowing etc. This would ensure even internationally you'd borrow at lower rate. Start with that and the economy would take off and actually start generating enough revenue to service debts. There's nothing like infrastructure deficit, we have a production deficit. Even worse all those eurobonds aren't ringfenced for specific projects, so we end up with fungible funds that are misused. Ruto like you believes in government, he's a typical fiscally liberal politician, his policy would be heavy spending to show a tangible thing as an accomplishment. Something like reducing unemployment and raising productivity would be very low on his list. That'd be a disaster just like the one we're witnessing with Uhuru.
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Hk development is very straight forward at our level of underdevelopment.More often you prescribe solutions that would work in mature economies.Here it's common sensical low hanging fruit.Yes Ruto get like Eisnseworth got in 1950s and before that when most of US infrastructure was laid down.When is last time us build an expressway or rail...very long time ago.Your kibaki tricke down economics were unanimously rejected in 2007 even by the unschooled.Jubilee won relection by bigger margin than in 2013.That is HUGE.kibaki is a piece of shiet.After Moi even a corpse would have turned Kenya fortunes .Moi will always be better than piece of shirt of kibaki.In fullness of time kibaki will be footnote .Yes was kibaki was brilliant but sadly he was a vegetable by time he was pork.Even Lucy knew he was done.How can you grow economy and get rejected in 2005 and 2007.If election are held now Jubilee will win third term unopposed.That is why NASA folded camp.From zero tarmac or electricity to what we got now.
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Hk development is very straight forward at our level of underdevelopment.More often you prescribe solutions that would work in mature economies.Here it's common sensical low hanging fruit.Yes Ruto get like Eisnseworth got in 1950s and before that when most of US infrastructure was laid down.When is last time us build an expressway or rail...very long time ago.Your kibaki tricke down economics were unanimously rejected in 2007 even by the unschooled.Jubilee won relection by bigger margin than in 2013.That is HUGE.kibaki is a piece of shiet.After Moi even a corpse would have turned Kenya fortunes .Moi will always be better than piece of shirt of kibaki.In fullness of time kibaki will be footnote .Yes was kibaki was brilliant but sadly he was a vegetable by time he was pork.Even Lucy knew he was done.How can you grow economy and get rejected in 2005 and 2007.If election are held now Jubilee will win third term unopposed.That is why NASA folded camp.From zero tarmac or electricity to what we got now.
Kibaki will be remembered for FPE and infrastructure expansion that Jubilee copied ingenuously. Don't conflate political incompetence with economics. Ruto or Jubilee is a great political mobilizer - Moi too won despite rock-bottom growth. I agree we have infrastructure deficit - what we disagree on is priorities. We have other deficits - capital deficit, automation deficit, and definitely manpower deficit. The demographic dividend will bridge the manpower deficit - followed by the capital deficit as earning, savings, spending and taxes balloon. Demand for infrastructure like the SGR will come organically. Metro train or subway would be wonderful in place of the SGR - with definite returns - cause people would happily avoid the traffic jams in towns. There is actual demand for infrastructure there. You can literally count the $$ saved by solving commute hours for working class - while you struggle to give us stories about future 50-100 years - after you long gave up tabling ROI projections.
Kibaki had high marginal utility from the Moi mess. Jubilee growth formula is very imprudent.
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Robina, the conversation before she, was it cost a container 1000 USD from China to Mombasa, 8000kms long, same cost it cost from Nairobi to Mombasa.That conversation to be had.
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Hk development is very straight forward at our level of underdevelopment.More often you prescribe solutions that would work in mature economies.Here it's common sensical low hanging fruit.Yes Ruto get like Eisnseworth got in 1950s and before that when most of US infrastructure was laid down.When is last time us build an expressway or rail...very long time ago.Your kibaki tricke down economics were unanimously rejected in 2007 even by the unschooled.Jubilee won relection by bigger margin than in 2013.That is HUGE.kibaki is a piece of shiet.After Moi even a corpse would have turned Kenya fortunes .Moi will always be better than piece of shirt of kibaki.In fullness of time kibaki will be footnote .Yes was kibaki was brilliant but sadly he was a vegetable by time he was pork.Even Lucy knew he was done.How can you grow economy and get rejected in 2005 and 2007.If election are held now Jubilee will win third term unopposed.That is why NASA folded camp.From zero tarmac or electricity to what we got now.
Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states
were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services. Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc.
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Who said we will just throw away the money. We will build metro line in Nairobi - needs about 1-2B dollars. We will also build mega dams to provide water to everyone and sewage services to all towns (We probably need 50 mega dams to serve all residents....and each probably cost anything upto 0.5B dollars). We will also build expressways connecting Malaba to Mombasa & Namanga to Isiolo- Maybe Busia to Mau Sumit--definitely build a roads in Northern Kenya- that may required maybe 5B dollars. We will also build coal plants and nuclear plants to provide cheap energy if need be. We will build connect all the 47 counties with freeways. We will spend the 20B dollars need to open up the north via LAPSSET. So you see we badly need that 100B now....and there is so much money in the international markets...we just need to ask!
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our road & bridges - to move from shamefully 15-20% of paved roads to 90%
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our rails (metro, light, mono rail) - to move from shamefully 3,000kms of rails to say 30,000kms - including light rails in major towns.
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on WATSAN (dams & supply)- so everyone in kenya can have clean piped water and all the shiet can be hygienical stored & treated.
In short - We have moved electricity coverage to respectfully 75% ( I think it's lower than that - we will see in Census) - but we need to invest billions dollars in cheaper and reliable sources.
In short - We need to spend on public facilities - schools,hospitals, - etc.
After we have done that - we can now resort to trying to grow the economy - by improving productivity, efficiency, social spending, interest rates manipulation, - your kind of thing - fiscal and monetary policies - bla bla - software issues.
But BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST. We need to nail the hardware.
Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states
were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services. Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc.
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Who said we will just throw away the money. We will build metro line in Nairobi - needs about 1-2B dollars. We will also build mega dams to provide water to everyone and sewage services to all towns (We probably need 50 mega dams to serve all residents....and each probably cost anything upto 0.5B dollars). We will also build expressways connecting Malaba to Mombasa & Namanga to Isiolo- Maybe Busia to Mau Sumit--definitely build a roads in Northern Kenya- that may required maybe 5B dollars. We will also build coal plants and nuclear plants to provide cheap energy if need be. We will build connect all the 47 counties with freeways. We will spend the 20B dollars need to open up the north via LAPSSET. So you see we badly need that 100B now....and there is so much money in the international markets...we just need to ask!
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our road & bridges - to move from shamefully 15-20% of paved roads to 90%
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our rails (metro, light, mono rail) - to move from shamefully 3,000kms of rails to say 30,000kms - including light rails in major towns.
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on WATSAN (dams & supply)- so everyone in kenya can have clean piped water and all the shiet can be hygienical stored & treated.
In short - We have moved electricity coverage to respectfully 75% ( I think it's lower than that - we will see in Census) - but we need to invest billions dollars in cheaper and reliable sources.
In short - We need to spend on public facilities - schools,hospitals, - etc.
After we have done that - we can now resort to trying to grow the economy - by improving productivity, efficiency, social spending, interest rates manipulation, - your kind of thing - fiscal and monetary policies - bla bla - software issues.
But BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST. We need to nail the hardware.
Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states
were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services. Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc.
Kenya has basic infrastructure. Maybe you should quote any industry you imagine to be held back by infrastructure deficit. I can't think of any.
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Who said we will just throw away the money. We will build metro line in Nairobi - needs about 1-2B dollars. We will also build mega dams to provide water to everyone and sewage services to all towns (We probably need 50 mega dams to serve all residents....and each probably cost anything upto 0.5B dollars). We will also build expressways connecting Malaba to Mombasa & Namanga to Isiolo- Maybe Busia to Mau Sumit--definitely build a roads in Northern Kenya- that may required maybe 5B dollars. We will also build coal plants and nuclear plants to provide cheap energy if need be. We will build connect all the 47 counties with freeways. We will spend the 20B dollars need to open up the north via LAPSSET. So you see we badly need that 100B now....and there is so much money in the international markets...we just need to ask!
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our road & bridges - to move from shamefully 15-20% of paved roads to 90%
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our rails (metro, light, mono rail) - to move from shamefully 3,000kms of rails to say 30,000kms - including light rails in major towns.
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on WATSAN (dams & supply)- so everyone in kenya can have clean piped water and all the shiet can be hygienical stored & treated.
In short - We have moved electricity coverage to respectfully 75% ( I think it's lower than that - we will see in Census) - but we need to invest billions dollars in cheaper and reliable sources.
In short - We need to spend on public facilities - schools,hospitals, - etc.
After we have done that - we can now resort to trying to grow the economy - by improving productivity, efficiency, social spending, interest rates manipulation, - your kind of thing - fiscal and monetary policies - bla bla - software issues.
But BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST. We need to nail the hardware.
Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states
were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services. Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc.
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So how would you service the $100b debt if you have to nail down "hardware" first? If the money is grant no problem, but debt, you have to prioritize. Take electricity, we have almost universal connection yet consumption isn't increasing. We have over 800k idle connections. The prudent thing would be to reduce cost. This can be achieved if electricity producers are allowed to sell directly to consumers while paying kplc small fee for last mile connection. Its one of the reason why serious manufacturers like pwani oil, bidco, KTDA, and flower farms are investing in producing their own electricity. So much for nailing down the hardware first concept.
Nairobi can very easily build a metro system, they just need to issue asset backed securities(bonds) pegged on parking fee , toll roads and metro revenue. Then have a private company run it. This would be a good way to ringfence the funds raised. Other major towns like mombasa, nakuru can do the same. Esther komeitt the investment banker should have worked on this after all she's the director of public investment and portfolio management.
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About a year ago, I was in Jinja seeping my beer and next to me was this 85yr old British Mzungu. We started having a conversation. He told me he came to Uganda in 1950s to work on Hydro there, did a stint in Ethiopia and in Kenya. He was I don't care type. He told me Africans are stupid. I think he was referring to you. He said when he was moving from England in 1950s - it was that NOT that different from kenya - but look where we are now - we are still about there -stuck? He told me ever since 1950s - Uganda had only added one Hydro - the same story for Kenya.He said he use to drive to Nairobi from Jinja in six hours...the roads were okay and there were not many cars. Now it takes nearly 12hrs or more.....because we still have the same road - with 1000 times more cars.
In short - you're very stupid. If you can ask such a question. You should ask that question when you have expressways from Nairobi to Butere...and it takes you 3hrs to cover that small distance - driving at 110km. Now it takes you a whole day and a lot of hair raising incidents to get to Butere..if you're luckly...and you dare say you can't think of any infrastructure deficit.
Kenya has basic infrastructure. Maybe you should quote any industry you imagine to be held back by infrastructure deficit. I can't think of any.
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There is money out there - waiting for us to grab. Servicing won't be a problem if we go for long-dated bond. If we borrow 100B dollars- 50yr or 100yr old bold - we would be repaying about 1B dollar...annually as principal...and say 10% interest (wtf)....another 100M dollars..that is very easy for us. We need to stop borrowing from domestic market - with loan maturity of 5y or 10yrs. Yes there biggest risk is fx...but it's long dated loan.
Electricity - if you read what I wrote - I said we are nearly nailing access - but we need cheap power. We need clean coal, nuclear power and name it. We cannot go far with hyrdo although we need a few more mega dams with few more power stations.
In short - short term - we need really cheap power sources - and that will cost DOLLARS.
So how would you service the $100b debt if you have to nail down "hardware" first? If the money is grant no problem, but debt, you have to prioritize. Take electricity, we have almost universal connection yet consumption isn't increasing. We have over 800k idle connections. The prudent thing would be to reduce cost. This can be achieved if electricity producers are allowed to sell directly to consumers while paying kplc small fee for last mile connection. Its one of the reason why serious manufacturers like pwani oil, bidco, KTDA, and flower farms are investing in producing their own electricity. So much for nailing down the hardware first concept.
Nairobi can very easily build a metro system, they just need to issue asset backed securities(bonds) pegged on parking fee , toll roads and metro revenue. Then have a private company run it. This would be a good way to ringfence the funds raised. Other major towns like mombasa, nakuru can do the same. Esther komeitt the investment banker should have worked on this after all she's the director of public investment and portfolio management.
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Sorry I don't understand. Is the SGR cheaper than truck for Msa-Nbi cargo?
Robina, the conversation before she, was it cost a container 1000 USD from China to Mombasa, 8000kms long, same cost it cost from Nairobi to Mombasa.That conversation to be had.
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Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services. Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc.
Kibaki tapped Moi mess - with freedom and goodwill dividend. Jubilee took this to mean borrow & build is a magic pill - no innovation nor thinking is needed. Housing and sewage can only be done for humanitarian reasons - for the dirt-poor - otherwise home ownership is still above Kenyan per capita. The slums or lowest-class Kariobangi are cost-efficient - the argument for Big 4 Housing is human dignity not economics. Metro subway or rural murram is a hanging fruit because it improves the working class and agric productivity. SGR does not have such leverage because there are no industrial goods or mineral commodities to transport. It is such a simple question I don't see how Pundit doesn't get it. Why do we care about 50-100 years in future while we can get much bigger ROI right now? Kingereza miingi - it is the impact on productivity that counts.
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Kibaki like all previous presidentwhat have done is chicken piece of shiet...we need to grow at double digits..to dream big.Wait for Ruto.China has brilliant leadership with IQ of 150... We need to dream big.There is much you can milk from a zebu cow even if you put it on a drip of nutrients.What productivity can you squeeze from our tiny economy.Still frothing at mouth about 5b dollars SGR.We need to dream big and do big things.
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China produces high value stuff - massive exports. Then builds the infra themselves super-efficiently with the earned capital - not debt. The communist command economy where Xi order everyone to go green - eminent domains, no unions and labor courts - apples and oranges. Ruto was co-president 5 years with dismal results - no miracles would happen if he became PORK.
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China produces high value stuff - massive exports. Then builds the infra themselves super-efficiently with the earned capital - not debt. The communist command economy where Xi order everyone to go green - eminent domains, no unions and labor courts - apples and oranges. Ruto was co-president 5 years with dismal results - no miracles would happen if he became PORK.
lubbish.when China was building super highway's, megacities and high speed rails it was the same pessimistic views !who will use or pay for it.Jubilee under Ruto build more roads than all previous gov combined..from Kenyatta snr to kibaki..in just five years...same with everything.Now they allowed Raila to bring makelele that what ail Kenya is the constitution....not lack of basic infrastructure.Youre an incorrigible idiot who should not work in silicon valley if not for affarmative action. All previous Kenya regime didn't build a kilometre of new rail.. Jubilee in 3yrs delivered Kenya biggest infrastructure since Brits brought Indians to build our mgr in 1900.Think about that Lubbish.Allogant.Eti if Kenya became a parliamentary democracy it will miraculously transform.Lubbish.That a super corrupt parliament teeming with barely illeterate folks will now supervise the PM and suddenly we will transform.Ubber lubbish.Uhuru sio Fala.Wait for his middle fingerm
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Who argued about China - leapfrogged 80s and 90s - was there even internet and nipate? By 2000 China was the export powerhouse with gigafactories all over. Obama and now Trump is crying about the Sino-enterprise and you want to compare Sub Sahara :o No industrialists will emerge from thin air just cause of rail or power - so simply put it where actual production happens - and your ROI myth is solved. Saying things will work 50-100 years in future - is not proof they will happen - cause noone can question that distant future.
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Who argued about China - leapfrogged 80s and 90s - was there even internet and nipate? By 2000 China was the export powerhouse with gigafactories all over. Obama and now Trump is crying about the Sino-enterprise and you want to compare Sub Sahara :o No industrialists will emerge from thin air just cause of rail or power - so simply put it where actual production happens - and your ROI myth is solved. Saying things will work 50-100 years in future - is not proof they will happen - cause noone can question that distant future.
I was online when likes of Chicago city terminator were arguing about china wasteful investment and mpesa.You think china moved from murram to superhighway.They first moved from murram to rural roads and then high speed roads then expressway then superhighways...they didn't wait to have money...they heavily leveraged .If a rail can last 100yrs why not borrow..there are pension funds that are planning to cash out their money when their 19yr old employeenis 70yrs...they give you money and you use it now.Then need to cash out 51yrs from now.The world is so rich.Our poverty is not lack of resources.Its lack of fore thinking and planning.We have short term view of things.If you build Ndaikini or Nairobi light rail now...it will serve Kenyan for maybe even 1000yrs .But you want the current generation to finance it from their savings.Lubbish.Already in central school are going empty.... infrastructure is not like food..that you need every few hours...once a house or rail is built ...it last 100yrs minimum.
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Kibaki like all previous presidentwhat have done is chicken piece of shiet...we need to grow at double digits..to dream big.Wait for Ruto.China has brilliant leadership with IQ of 150... We need to dream big.There is much you can milk from a zebu cow even if you put it on a drip of nutrients.What productivity can you squeeze from our tiny economy.Still frothing at mouth about 5b dollars SGR.We need to dream big and do big things.
The first useful point you have made.
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I was online when likes of Chicago city terminator were arguing about china wasteful investment and mpesa.You think china moved from murram to superhighway.They first moved from murram to rural roads and then high speed roads then expressway then superhighways...they didn't wait to have money...they heavily leveraged .If a rail can last 100yrs why not borrow..there are pension funds that are planning to cash out their money when their 19yr old employeenis 70yrs...they give you money and you use it now.Then need to cash out 51yrs from now.The world is so rich.Our poverty is not lack of resources.Its lack of fore thinking and planning.We have short term view of things.If you build Ndaikini or Nairobi light rail now...it will serve Kenyan for maybe even 1000yrs .But you want the current generation to finance it from their savings.Lubbish.Already in central school are going empty.... infrastructure is not like food..that you need every few hours...once a house or rail is built ...it last 100yrs minimum.
Conflation conflation conflation. So you argued about China with bitmask in 2000 - now you mix your white elephant with subway. Investment math is exacting and cannot be bundled nor bandied away. The lender counts the debt to the penny. No-brainer - what improves productivity aka returns - is good. What is produced upstream in Kenya to justify SGR? What heavy goods are there in that route? I am really glad China has refused to fund SGR II - if Uhuru was borrowing to fund education or health I might support him.
Light rail - in TOWN - where working class wastes billions of man-hours per year - hanging fruit
Murram to productive rural - cause tarmac is too costly for cheap agricultural goods - good investment
SGR - to Nairobi, Naivasha, Bomet, Kisumu - or to ANYWHERE in Kenya - very poor investment
Renewable power to reduce unit cost per kWh for industrial towns - good investment
Last-mile to unproductive semi-literate peasants which raises unit cost for the existing producers - bad investment
Free or cheap housing for urban poor - bad investment
Universal healthcare - good investment
Re-read until you get it. Don't turn me into hair-splitting Karua or MOON Ki :(
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By the way Pundit, has the big, rich beggar-hugging world not refused to lend Uhuru money? I saw the Ag Treasury CS Yattani begging WB or IMF for new loan - promising war on graft will be sustained and won. Your sleazebag hero would have to raid Equity and KCB like Moi - noone would lend him a dime.
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Robina, we have 33 million tonnes of cargo annually in Mombasa to transportat.Our sgr if needed not double stack can only carry 21m tonnes..if double 35..so for future plans.. we need another sgr or make current one double stack.Productivity at our rate is retrying to zero graze a maasai zebu.If a farmer can invest 200K to get a Holstein then our gov can invest 200b dollars to get same high pedigree.
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Driving to work... will be back to rebut your half-arse arguments. Must be holiday in kenya - no need for last-mile in mavoko with idlers like RV Pundit. Nyef nyef
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About a year ago, I was in Jinja seeping my beer and next to me was this 85yr old British Mzungu. We started having a conversation. He told me he came to Uganda in 1950s to work on Hydro there, did a stint in Ethiopia and in Kenya. He was I don't care type. He told me Africans are stupid. I think he was referring to you. He said when he was moving from England in 1950s - it was that NOT that different from kenya - but look where we are now - we are still about there -stuck? He told me ever since 1950s - Uganda had only added one Hydro - the same story for Kenya.He said he use to drive to Nairobi from Jinja in six hours...the roads were okay and there were not many cars. Now it takes nearly 12hrs or more.....because we still have the same road - with 1000 times more cars.
In short - you're very stupid. If you can ask such a question. You should ask that question when you have expressways from Nairobi to Butere...and it takes you 3hrs to cover that small distance - driving at 110km. Now it takes you a whole day and a lot of hair raising incidents to get to Butere..if you're luckly...and you dare say you can't think of any infrastructure deficit.
Kenya has basic infrastructure. Maybe you should quote any industry you imagine to be held back by infrastructure deficit. I can't think of any.
Still waiting for any industry that benefits from the infrastructure deficit. You have none and you had to quite your fellow chang'aa matey
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Here's the plummet of global power - while in Kenya last I heard you need ksh 35K to connect. Which peasant afford that? Has the cost dropped after last-mile? What industry is attracted to that - Big 4 manufacturing?
(https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E12AQE0hrYT-whjCQ/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0?e=1571270400&v=beta&t=tdoOMR1k0qJcSoN0_SACdx0PTVXeoh1zvVso6iILb4E)
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About a year ago, I was in Jinja seeping my beer and next to me was this 85yr old British Mzungu. We started having a conversation. He told me he came to Uganda in 1950s to work on Hydro there, did a stint in Ethiopia and in Kenya. He was I don't care type. He told me Africans are stupid. I think he was referring to you. He said when he was moving from England in 1950s - it was that NOT that different from kenya - but look where we are now - we are still about there -stuck? He told me ever since 1950s - Uganda had only added one Hydro - the same story for Kenya.He said he use to drive to Nairobi from Jinja in six hours...the roads were okay and there were not many cars. Now it takes nearly 12hrs or more.....because we still have the same road - with 1000 times more cars.
In short - you're very stupid. If you can ask such a question. You should ask that question when you have expressways from Nairobi to Butere...and it takes you 3hrs to cover that small distance - driving at 110km. Now it takes you a whole day and a lot of hair raising incidents to get to Butere..if you're luckly...and you dare say you can't think of any infrastructure deficit.
Kenya has basic infrastructure. Maybe you should quote any industry you imagine to be held back by infrastructure deficit. I can't think of any.
Still waiting for any industry that benefits from the infrastructure deficit. You have none and you had to quite your fellow chang'aa matey
infrastructure for industries can be gathered for in dongo kundu or some special island in Kenya coast.Infrastructure serves people who pays for it.The biggest component of our tax revenue is PAYE at around 4B dollars annually with TSC leading it.Not industries.Youre just out of your depth. a country is not a limited for profit company.
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Here's the plummet of global power - while in Kenya last I heard you need ksh 35K to connect. Which peasant afford that? Has the cost dropped after last-mile? What industry is attracted to that - Big 4 manufacturing?
(https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E12AQE0hrYT-whjCQ/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0?e=1571270400&v=beta&t=tdoOMR1k0qJcSoN0_SACdx0PTVXeoh1zvVso6iILb4E)
You cannot compare cost of solar with cost of connection..once off cost.35k is because you generally need a treated post cost 20k and cable plus labour of 15K.That is easy to sort...solar, wind, geothermal and such cost around 8-10 cent usd per unit...coal is like 1..hydro 3 cents.Please grab some book and read these stuff.
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By the way Pundit, has the big, rich beggar-hugging world not refused to lend Uhuru money? I saw the Ag Treasury CS Yattani begging WB or IMF for new loan - promising war on graft will be sustained and won. Your sleazebag hero would have to raid Equity and KCB like Moi - noone would lend him a dime.
WB and IMF after European Marshall plan is seriously under founded because US won't allow Chinese to fund it.He is barking at wrong tree.A barren tree.Whites want to perpetuate this idea that they are superior race.IMF, WB and UN are crying for reforms but US vetoes all that.China are willing and able to fund them..but will they allow the reforms needed so WB can lend us 100Bdollars.. hell not .luckily we have bottom less international debt market... just ask the JP Morgan or Citibank you want 100B... pay them handsome fee... and they bank the money in your account tomorrow .The Jewish wizardry.Stop going through proxies.
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infrastructure for industries can be gathered for in dongo kundu or some special island in Kenya coast.Infrastructure serves people who pays for it.The biggest component of our tax revenue is PAYE at around 4B dollars annually with TSC leading it.Not industries.Youre just out of your depth. a country is not a limited for profit company.
You're describing yourself. Kenya economy is bulk agric (rural murram), working class doing services in town who snore in crazy jam (metro), tiny manufacturing and cottage industry (need cheap power and TIVETS). Most construction or such is still urban by definition. There is no industry in Kenya that fails to flourish and would somehow benefit from rail. Labor, land costs are a big factor in manufacturing which is a structural problem. Ambia Ruto to upgrade his thinking - for 2022 if he is still alive - SGR ya 2012 is DOA.
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In short manufacturing as a growth driver is DOA for Kenya. Services are a better bet - possible to leap-frog fr agric - but with dim-wit hacks like Pundit - that too is tough luck.
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infrastructure for industries can be gathered for in dongo kundu or some special island in Kenya coast.Infrastructure serves people who pays for it.The biggest component of our tax revenue is PAYE at around 4B dollars annually with TSC leading it.Not industries.Youre just out of your depth. a country is not a limited for profit company.
You're describing yourself. Kenya economy is bulk agric (rural murram), working class doing services in town who snore in crazy jam (metro), tiny manufacturing and cottage industry (need cheap power and TIVETS). Most construction or such is still urban by definition. There is no industry in Kenya that fails to flourish and would somehow benefit from rail. Labor, land costs are a big factor in manufacturing which is a structural problem. Ambia Ruto to upgrade his thinking - for 2022 if he is still alive - SGR ya 2012 is DOA.
We are talking the future.Youre describing our zebu that you want us to squeeze productivity out if it.
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In short manufacturing as a growth driver is DOA for Kenya. Services are a better bet - possible to leap-frog fr agric - but with dim-wit hacks like Pundit - that too is tough luck.
Nothing can happen without the hardware.You cannot build games in your head.Fix the basic infrastructure and step back . Manufacturing will come... because we would have ticked all the boxes. Tourist will move from 2m to 15m.If we had infrastructure as good as developed world what would stop industry, agriculture and services from moving here
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Here's the plummet of global power - while in Kenya last I heard you need ksh 35K to connect. Which peasant afford that? Has the cost dropped after last-mile? What industry is attracted to that - Big 4 manufacturing?
(https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E12AQE0hrYT-whjCQ/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0?e=1571270400&v=beta&t=tdoOMR1k0qJcSoN0_SACdx0PTVXeoh1zvVso6iILb4E)
You cannot compare cost of solar with cost of connection..once off cost.35k is because you generally need a treated post cost 20k and cable plus labour of 15K.That is easy to sort...solar, wind, geothermal and such cost around 8-10 cent usd per unit...coal is like 1..hydro 3 cents.Please grab some book and read these stuff.
Why is power in Kenya so costly? Compared to say Ethiopia, Uganda, TZ, SA, Egypt, Rwanda. At 90% hydro it should be the cheapest. Wait... there are long last-miles to illiterate villagers in Samburu - that has raised cost for manufactures in Mombasa and Nairobi.
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Hydro failed because we are don't have great river's like Nile or Niger or Congo or Ganghes or Colorado or Amazon or Yangtze or etc .We are also drought prone.Last hydro was sondu mirui under Moi.Only coal and nuclear can save us.Maybe natural gas.
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Hydro failed because we are don't have great river's like Nile or Niger or Congo or Ganghes or Colorado or Amazon or Yangtze etc .We are also drought prone.Last hydro was sondu mirui under Moi.Only coal and nuclear can save us.Maybe natural gas.
Yes. But focusing on reducing cost for the actual producers is a quicker fix. Last-mile is bad socialism without revenues for subsidy.
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Policies will make Kenya develop, not side shows.
Kibaki/Dinga did well the stuck to policies.
I was on THika rd and all I saw was a $3b highway slowly turn into a hawkers playground. A policy to enforce all laws in Kenya is highly lacking.
Policy on clean water in all areas is almost non existent.
Sanitation policy seems to have evaded NEMA - a sleepy agency.
East Asia Tigers developed due to good policies.
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About a year ago, I was in Jinja seeping my beer and next to me was this 85yr old British Mzungu. We started having a conversation. He told me he came to Uganda in 1950s to work on Hydro there, did a stint in Ethiopia and in Kenya. He was I don't care type. He told me Africans are stupid. I think he was referring to you. He said when he was moving from England in 1950s - it was that NOT that different from kenya - but look where we are now - we are still about there -stuck? He told me ever since 1950s - Uganda had only added one Hydro - the same story for Kenya.He said he use to drive to Nairobi from Jinja in six hours...the roads were okay and there were not many cars. Now it takes nearly 12hrs or more.....because we still have the same road - with 1000 times more cars.
In short - you're very stupid. If you can ask such a question. You should ask that question when you have expressways from Nairobi to Butere...and it takes you 3hrs to cover that small distance - driving at 110km. Now it takes you a whole day and a lot of hair raising incidents to get to Butere..if you're luckly...and you dare say you can't think of any infrastructure deficit.
Kenya has basic infrastructure. Maybe you should quote any industry you imagine to be held back by infrastructure deficit. I can't think of any.
Still waiting for any industry that benefits from the infrastructure deficit. You have none and you had to quite your fellow chang'aa matey
infrastructure for industries can be gathered for in dongo kundu or some special island in Kenya coast.Infrastructure serves people who pays for it.The biggest component of our tax revenue is PAYE at around 4B dollars annually with TSC leading it.Not industries.Youre just out of your depth. a country is not a limited for profit company.
Oh so now it's reward for taxes paid? Taxes are paid out of productivity. That's sexy enough. Your claim was that this would power the country and I'm asking how?
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In short manufacturing as a growth driver is DOA for Kenya. Services are a better bet - possible to leap-frog fr agric - but with dim-wit hacks like Pundit - that too is tough luck.
Nothing can happen without the hardware.You cannot build games in your head.Fix the basic infrastructure and step back . Manufacturing will come... because we would have ticked all the boxes. Tourist will move from 2m to 15m.If we had infrastructure as good as developed world what would stop industry, agriculture and services from moving here
Tourists come here mainly for the animals. Are there some isolated parks that are inaccessible and that are waiting for shiny SGR or expressway to thrive?
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Here's the plummet of global power - while in Kenya last I heard you need ksh 35K to connect. Which peasant afford that? Has the cost dropped after last-mile? What industry is attracted to that - Big 4 manufacturing?
(https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E12AQE0hrYT-whjCQ/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232/0?e=1571270400&v=beta&t=tdoOMR1k0qJcSoN0_SACdx0PTVXeoh1zvVso6iILb4E)
You cannot compare cost of solar with cost of connection..once off cost.35k is because you generally need a treated post cost 20k and cable plus labour of 15K.That is easy to sort...solar, wind, geothermal and such cost around 8-10 cent usd per unit...coal is like 1..hydro 3 cents.Please grab some book and read these stuff.
Why is power in Kenya so costly? Compared to say Ethiopia, Uganda, TZ, SA, Egypt, Rwanda. At 90% hydro it should be the cheapest. Wait... there are long last-miles to illiterate villagers in Samburu - that has raised cost for manufactures in Mombasa and Nairobi.
That plus stupid corrupt IPP contracts.
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Stupid argument is to blame the poor for expensive power.Worldwide a few big manufacturing and mining industries consume most power.In Kenya about 600 companies consume more than 60% of all power.In South Africa it's even worse about 10 major mining and manufacturing companies consume more than half the power.Household don't consume any power.They turn on the light for 2hrs and maybe a small TV.The connection money came from World Bank,AFDB and Kenya gov.There are not responsible at all for our expensive power.Our power is expensive because we have expensive source of power... including thermal or diesel plants.We need to fix that by embracing clean coal.But don't imagine manufacturers will rush in if you don't fix the rest of the stuff.
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Stupid argument is to blame the poor for expensive power.Worldwide a few big manufacturing and mining industries consume most power.In Kenya about 600 companies consume more than 60% of all power.In South Africa it's even worse about 10 major mining and manufacturing companies consume more than half the power.Household don't consume any power.They turn on the light for 2hrs and maybe a small TV.The connection money came from World Bank,AFDB and Kenya gov.There are not responsible at all for our expensive power.Our power is expensive because we have expensive source of power... including thermal or diesel plants.We need to fix that by embracing clean coal.But don't imagine manufacturers will rush in if you don't fix the rest of the stuff.
How much will 'clean coal' power cost? Jubilee is as usual hiding the details for obvious reasons
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Clean coal cost like 1 cent while hydro cost 3 cent usd or shillings to produce.... the one we have in Kenya start from 8 i.e geothermal, wind,solar to 24 cent a unit for diesel or thermal plant.Hapo ndio shida
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Clean coal cost like 1 cent while hydro cost 3 cent usd or shillings to produce.... the one we have in Kenya start from 8 i.e geothermal, wind,solar to 24 cent a unit for diesel or thermal plant.Hapo ndio shida
Not how much it costs out there but how it costs under the Awamu deal
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AMU - they signed 7.5 cents - which is ridiculously expensive - even if we have to import coal. We need to dig up Kitui coal and burn it.
Not how much it costs out there but how it costs under the Awamu deal
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Amu Power has already signed a power purchase agreement with Kenya Power to sell electricity generated at the plant at a cost of US7.52c/kWh.
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Amu Power has already signed a power purchase agreement with Kenya Power to sell electricity generated at the plant at a cost of US7.52c/kWh.
And we are bound to buy the last unit they produce. It’s not the solution. Every shiet here is bloody expensive from wind to hydro. That’s why our manufacturing is never taking off
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Yes but hopefully when upfront investment pays up - we can generate cheaper power. AMU for example have to put down 2B dollars - that is huge investment. Also once we have excess capacity - KPLC can buy cheapest power available - via an auction system. Importing from Uganda is most expensive - I think nearly 25 cents. And Ethiopia certainly looking forward to make their dough from us. In meantime Ethiopia power is around 6 cents...they still subdize it...but cost of hydro at generation point is 3 cents...plus distribution & margins...6-8shs is what final customer ought to get.
The solution for me is Kitui cheap coal, Tanzania natural gas importation and finally NUCLEAR power.
And we are bound to buy the last unit they produce. It’s not the solution. Every shiet here is bloody expensive from wind to hydro. That’s why our manufacturing is never taking off
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Kenya has 50b dollars housing deficit.. around 2M units needed https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001338012/chimphondah-africa-needs-over-sh100-trillion-for-housing-crisis