Kenya will not develop with stories...it will develop by building stuff

[vooke]

Who said we will just throw away the money. We will build metro line in Nairobi - needs about 1-2B dollars. We will also build mega dams to provide water to everyone  and sewage services to all towns (We probably need 50 mega dams to serve all residents....and each probably cost anything upto 0.5B dollars). We will also build expressways connecting Malaba to Mombasa & Namanga to Isiolo- Maybe Busia to Mau Sumit--definitely build a roads in Northern Kenya- that may required maybe 5B dollars. We will also build coal plants and nuclear plants to provide cheap energy if need be. We will build connect all the 47 counties with freeways. We will spend the 20B dollars need to open up the north via LAPSSET. So you see we badly need that 100B now....and there is so much money in the international markets...we just need to ask!

In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our road & bridges - to move from shamefully 15-20% of paved roads to 90%
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our rails (metro, light, mono rail) - to move from shamefully 3,000kms of rails to say 30,000kms - including light rails in major towns.
In short  - we need to spend say 25B dollars on WATSAN (dams & supply)- so everyone in kenya can have clean piped water and all the shiet can be hygienical stored & treated.
In short   - We have moved electricity coverage to respectfully 75% ( I think it's lower than that  - we will see in Census) - but we need to invest billions dollars in cheaper and reliable sources.
In short  -  We need to spend on public facilities - schools,hospitals,  - etc.

After we have done that - we can now resort to trying to grow the economy  - by improving productivity, efficiency, social spending, interest rates manipulation, - your kind of thing - fiscal and monetary policies  - bla bla - software issues.

But BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST. We need to nail the hardware.

Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states
 were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services.  Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc. 

Kenya has basic infrastructure. Maybe you should quote any industry you imagine to be held back by infrastructure deficit. I can't think of any.

[hk]

Who said we will just throw away the money. We will build metro line in Nairobi - needs about 1-2B dollars. We will also build mega dams to provide water to everyone  and sewage services to all towns (We probably need 50 mega dams to serve all residents....and each probably cost anything upto 0.5B dollars). We will also build expressways connecting Malaba to Mombasa & Namanga to Isiolo- Maybe Busia to Mau Sumit--definitely build a roads in Northern Kenya- that may required maybe 5B dollars. We will also build coal plants and nuclear plants to provide cheap energy if need be. We will build connect all the 47 counties with freeways. We will spend the 20B dollars need to open up the north via LAPSSET. So you see we badly need that 100B now....and there is so much money in the international markets...we just need to ask!

In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our road & bridges - to move from shamefully 15-20% of paved roads to 90%
In short - we need to spend say 25B dollars on our rails (metro, light, mono rail) - to move from shamefully 3,000kms of rails to say 30,000kms - including light rails in major towns.
In short  - we need to spend say 25B dollars on WATSAN (dams & supply)- so everyone in kenya can have clean piped water and all the shiet can be hygienical stored & treated.
In short   - We have moved electricity coverage to respectfully 75% ( I think it's lower than that  - we will see in Census) - but we need to invest billions dollars in cheaper and reliable sources.
In short  -  We need to spend on public facilities - schools,hospitals,  - etc.

After we have done that - we can now resort to trying to grow the economy  - by improving productivity, efficiency, social spending, interest rates manipulation, - your kind of thing - fiscal and monetary policies  - bla bla - software issues.

But BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST. We need to nail the hardware.

Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states
 were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services.  Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc. 

.

So how would you service the $100b debt if you have to nail down "hardware" first? If the money is grant no problem, but debt, you have to prioritize. Take electricity, we have almost universal connection yet consumption isn't increasing. We have over 800k idle connections. The prudent thing would be to reduce cost. This can be achieved if electricity producers are allowed to sell directly to consumers while paying kplc small fee for last mile connection. Its one of the reason why serious manufacturers like pwani oil, bidco, KTDA, and flower farms are investing in producing their own electricity. So much for nailing down the hardware first concept.
Nairobi can very easily build a metro system, they just need to issue asset backed securities(bonds) pegged on parking fee , toll roads and metro revenue. Then have a private company run it. This would be a good way to ringfence the funds raised. Other major towns like mombasa, nakuru can do the same. Esther komeitt the investment banker should have worked on this after all she's the director of public investment and portfolio management.

[RV Pundit]

About a year ago, I was in Jinja seeping my beer and next to me was this 85yr old British Mzungu. We started having a conversation. He told me he came to Uganda in 1950s to work on Hydro there, did a stint in Ethiopia and in Kenya. He was I don't care type. He told me Africans are stupid. I think he was referring to you. He said when he was moving from England in 1950s - it was that NOT that different from kenya - but look where we are now - we are still about there -stuck? He told me ever since 1950s - Uganda had only added one Hydro - the same story for Kenya.He said he use to drive to Nairobi from Jinja in six hours...the roads were okay and there were not many cars. Now it takes nearly 12hrs or more.....because we still have the same road - with 1000 times more cars.

In short - you're very stupid. If you can ask such a question. You should ask that question when you have expressways from Nairobi to Butere...and it takes you 3hrs to cover that small distance  - driving at 110km. Now it takes you a whole day and a lot of hair raising incidents to get to Butere..if you're luckly...and you dare say you can't think of any infrastructure deficit.

Kenya has basic infrastructure. Maybe you should quote any industry you imagine to be held back by infrastructure deficit. I can't think of any.

[RV Pundit]

There is money out there - waiting for us to grab. Servicing won't be a problem if we go for long-dated bond. If we borrow 100B dollars- 50yr or 100yr old bold - we would be repaying about 1B dollar...annually as principal...and say 10% interest (wtf)....another 100M dollars..that is very easy for us. We need to stop borrowing from domestic market - with loan maturity of 5y or 10yrs. Yes there biggest risk is fx...but it's long dated loan.

Electricity - if you read what I wrote - I said we are nearly nailing access - but we need cheap power. We need clean coal, nuclear power and name it. We cannot go far with hyrdo although we need a few more mega dams with few more power stations.

In short - short term - we need really cheap power sources - and that will cost DOLLARS.

So how would you service the $100b debt if you have to nail down "hardware" first? If the money is grant no problem, but debt, you have to prioritize. Take electricity, we have almost universal connection yet consumption isn't increasing. We have over 800k idle connections. The prudent thing would be to reduce cost. This can be achieved if electricity producers are allowed to sell directly to consumers while paying kplc small fee for last mile connection. Its one of the reason why serious manufacturers like pwani oil, bidco, KTDA, and flower farms are investing in producing their own electricity. So much for nailing down the hardware first concept.
Nairobi can very easily build a metro system, they just need to issue asset backed securities(bonds) pegged on parking fee , toll roads and metro revenue. Then have a private company run it. This would be a good way to ringfence the funds raised. Other major towns like mombasa, nakuru can do the same. Esther komeitt the investment banker should have worked on this after all she's the director of public investment and portfolio management.

[Nefertiti]

Sorry I don't understand. Is the SGR cheaper than truck for Msa-Nbi cargo?

Robina, the conversation before she, was it cost a container 1000 USD from China to Mombasa, 8000kms long, same cost it cost from Nairobi to Mombasa.That conversation to be had.

[Nefertiti]

Eisenhower freeway system connected all the states in continental USA this surely accelerated connectivity and trade. However even before the freeway system individual states were producing goods and services that the freeway system enabled easier and efficient movement. Spending in economics is like a ledger, an entry on one side affect entry on the other side. Its not a zero sum game. Spending should be commensurate with the economic activity. Also the infrastructure should make ease or be cheaper movement of goods and services.  Robina is right, we need investment in infrastructure like metro train, by passes in all major towns, basic things like sewerage system etc.

Kibaki tapped Moi mess - with freedom and goodwill dividend. Jubilee took this to mean borrow & build is a magic pill - no innovation nor thinking is needed. Housing and sewage can only be done for humanitarian reasons - for the dirt-poor - otherwise home ownership is still above Kenyan per capita. The slums or lowest-class Kariobangi are cost-efficient - the argument for Big 4 Housing is human dignity not economics. Metro subway or rural murram is a hanging fruit because it improves the working class and agric productivity. SGR does not have such leverage because there are no industrial goods or mineral commodities to transport. It is such a simple question I don't see how Pundit doesn't get it. Why do we care about 50-100 years in future while we can get much bigger ROI right now? Kingereza miingi - it is the impact on productivity that counts.

[RV Pundit]

Kibaki like all previous presidentwhat have done is chicken piece of shiet...we need to grow at double digits..to dream big.Wait for Ruto.China has brilliant leadership with IQ of 150... We need to dream big.There is much you can milk from a zebu cow even if you put it on a drip of nutrients.What productivity can you squeeze from our tiny economy.Still frothing at mouth about 5b dollars SGR.We need to dream big and do big things.

[Nefertiti]

China produces high value stuff - massive exports. Then builds the infra themselves super-efficiently with the earned capital - not debt. The communist command economy where Xi order everyone to go green - eminent domains, no unions and labor courts - apples and oranges. Ruto was co-president 5 years with dismal results - no miracles would happen if he became PORK.

[RV Pundit]

China produces high value stuff - massive exports. Then builds the infra themselves super-efficiently with the earned capital - not debt. The communist command economy where Xi order everyone to go green - eminent domains, no unions and labor courts - apples and oranges. Ruto was co-president 5 years with dismal results - no miracles would happen if he became PORK.

lubbish.when China was building super highway's, megacities and high speed rails it was the same pessimistic views !who will use or pay for it.Jubilee under Ruto build more roads than all previous gov combined..from Kenyatta snr to kibaki..in just five years...same with everything.Now they allowed Raila to bring makelele that what ail Kenya is the constitution....not lack of basic infrastructure.Youre an incorrigible idiot who should not work in silicon valley if not for affarmative action. All previous Kenya regime didn't build a kilometre of new rail.. Jubilee in 3yrs delivered Kenya biggest infrastructure since Brits brought Indians to build our mgr in 1900.Think about that Lubbish.Allogant.Eti if Kenya became a parliamentary democracy it will miraculously transform.Lubbish.That a super corrupt parliament teeming with barely illeterate folks will now supervise the PM and suddenly we will transform.Ubber lubbish.Uhuru sio Fala.Wait for his middle fingerm

[Nefertiti]

Who argued about China - leapfrogged 80s and 90s - was there even internet and nipate? By 2000 China was the export powerhouse with gigafactories all over. Obama and now Trump is crying about the Sino-enterprise and you want to compare Sub Sahara No industrialists will emerge from thin air just cause of rail or power - so simply put it where actual production happens - and your ROI myth is solved. Saying things will work 50-100 years in future - is not proof they will happen - cause noone can question that distant future.

[RV Pundit]

Who argued about China - leapfrogged 80s and 90s - was there even internet and nipate? By 2000 China was the export powerhouse with gigafactories all over. Obama and now Trump is crying about the Sino-enterprise and you want to compare Sub Sahara No industrialists will emerge from thin air just cause of rail or power - so simply put it where actual production happens - and your ROI myth is solved. Saying things will work 50-100 years in future - is not proof they will happen - cause noone can question that distant future.

I was online when likes of Chicago city terminator were arguing about china wasteful investment and mpesa.You think china moved from murram to superhighway.They first moved from murram to rural roads and then high speed roads then expressway then superhighways...they didn't wait to have money...they heavily leveraged .If a rail can last 100yrs why not borrow..there are pension funds that are planning to cash out their money when their 19yr old employeenis 70yrs...they give you money and you use it now.Then need to cash out 51yrs from now.The world is so rich.Our poverty is not lack of resources.Its lack of fore thinking and planning.We have short term view of things.If you build Ndaikini or Nairobi light rail now...it will serve Kenyan for maybe even 1000yrs .But you want the current generation to finance it from their savings.Lubbish.Already in central school are going empty.... infrastructure is not like food..that you need every few hours...once a house or rail is built ...it last 100yrs minimum.

[Nefertiti]

Kibaki like all previous presidentwhat have done is chicken piece of shiet...we need to grow at double digits..to dream big.Wait for Ruto.China has brilliant leadership with IQ of 150... We need to dream big.There is much you can milk from a zebu cow even if you put it on a drip of nutrients.What productivity can you squeeze from our tiny economy.Still frothing at mouth about 5b dollars SGR.We need to dream big and do big things.

The first useful point you have made.

[Nefertiti]

I was online when likes of Chicago city terminator were arguing about china wasteful investment and mpesa.You think china moved from murram to superhighway.They first moved from murram to rural roads and then high speed roads then expressway then superhighways...they didn't wait to have money...they heavily leveraged .If a rail can last 100yrs why not borrow..there are pension funds that are planning to cash out their money when their 19yr old employeenis 70yrs...they give you money and you use it now.Then need to cash out 51yrs from now.The world is so rich.Our poverty is not lack of resources.Its lack of fore thinking and planning.We have short term view of things.If you build Ndaikini or Nairobi light rail now...it will serve Kenyan for maybe even 1000yrs .But you want the current generation to finance it from their savings.Lubbish.Already in central school are going empty.... infrastructure is not like food..that you need every few hours...once a house or rail is built ...it last 100yrs minimum.

Conflation conflation conflation. So you argued about China with bitmask in 2000 - now you mix your white elephant with subway. Investment math is exacting and cannot be bundled nor bandied away. The lender counts the debt to the penny.  No-brainer - what improves productivity aka returns - is good. What is produced upstream in Kenya to justify SGR? What heavy goods are there in that route? I am really glad China has refused to fund SGR II - if Uhuru was borrowing to fund education or health I might support him.

Light rail - in TOWN - where working class wastes billions of man-hours per year - hanging fruit
Murram to productive rural - cause tarmac is too costly for cheap agricultural goods - good investment
SGR - to Nairobi, Naivasha, Bomet, Kisumu - or to ANYWHERE in Kenya - very poor investment
Renewable power to reduce unit cost per kWh for industrial towns - good investment
Last-mile to unproductive semi-literate peasants which raises unit cost for the existing producers - bad investment
Free or cheap housing for urban poor - bad investment
Universal healthcare - good investment

Re-read until you get it. Don't turn me into hair-splitting Karua or MOON Ki

[Nefertiti]

By the way Pundit, has the big, rich beggar-hugging world not refused to lend Uhuru money? I saw the Ag Treasury CS Yattani begging WB or IMF for new loan - promising war on graft will be sustained and won. Your sleazebag hero would have to raid Equity and KCB like Moi - noone would lend him a dime.

[RV Pundit]

Robina, we have 33 million tonnes of cargo annually in Mombasa to transportat.Our sgr if needed not double stack can only carry 21m tonnes..if double 35..so for future plans.. we need another sgr or make current one double stack.Productivity at our rate is retrying to zero graze a maasai zebu.If a farmer can invest 200K to get a Holstein then our gov can invest 200b dollars to get same high pedigree.

[Nefertiti]

Driving to work... will be back to rebut your half-arse arguments. Must be holiday in kenya - no need for last-mile in mavoko with idlers like RV Pundit. Nyef nyef

[vooke]

About a year ago, I was in Jinja seeping my beer and next to me was this 85yr old British Mzungu. We started having a conversation. He told me he came to Uganda in 1950s to work on Hydro there, did a stint in Ethiopia and in Kenya. He was I don't care type. He told me Africans are stupid. I think he was referring to you. He said when he was moving from England in 1950s - it was that NOT that different from kenya - but look where we are now - we are still about there -stuck? He told me ever since 1950s - Uganda had only added one Hydro - the same story for Kenya.He said he use to drive to Nairobi from Jinja in six hours...the roads were okay and there were not many cars. Now it takes nearly 12hrs or more.....because we still have the same road - with 1000 times more cars.

In short - you're very stupid. If you can ask such a question. You should ask that question when you have expressways from Nairobi to Butere...and it takes you 3hrs to cover that small distance  - driving at 110km. Now it takes you a whole day and a lot of hair raising incidents to get to Butere..if you're luckly...and you dare say you can't think of any infrastructure deficit.

Kenya has basic infrastructure. Maybe you should quote any industry you imagine to be held back by infrastructure deficit. I can't think of any.

Still waiting for any industry that benefits from the infrastructure deficit. You have none and you had to quite your fellow chang'aa matey

[Nefertiti]

Here's the plummet of global power - while in Kenya last I heard you need ksh 35K to connect. Which peasant afford that? Has the cost dropped after last-mile? What industry is attracted to that - Big 4 manufacturing?

[RV Pundit]

About a year ago, I was in Jinja seeping my beer and next to me was this 85yr old British Mzungu. We started having a conversation. He told me he came to Uganda in 1950s to work on Hydro there, did a stint in Ethiopia and in Kenya. He was I don't care type. He told me Africans are stupid. I think he was referring to you. He said when he was moving from England in 1950s - it was that NOT that different from kenya - but look where we are now - we are still about there -stuck? He told me ever since 1950s - Uganda had only added one Hydro - the same story for Kenya.He said he use to drive to Nairobi from Jinja in six hours...the roads were okay and there were not many cars. Now it takes nearly 12hrs or more.....because we still have the same road - with 1000 times more cars.

In short - you're very stupid. If you can ask such a question. You should ask that question when you have expressways from Nairobi to Butere...and it takes you 3hrs to cover that small distance  - driving at 110km. Now it takes you a whole day and a lot of hair raising incidents to get to Butere..if you're luckly...and you dare say you can't think of any infrastructure deficit.

Kenya has basic infrastructure. Maybe you should quote any industry you imagine to be held back by infrastructure deficit. I can't think of any.

Still waiting for any industry that benefits from the infrastructure deficit. You have none and you had to quite your fellow chang'aa matey

infrastructure for industries can be gathered for in dongo kundu or some special island in Kenya coast.Infrastructure serves people who pays for it.The biggest component of our tax revenue is PAYE at around 4B dollars annually with TSC leading it.Not industries.Youre just out of your depth. a country is not a limited for profit company.

[RV Pundit]

Here's the plummet of global power - while in Kenya last I heard you need ksh 35K to connect. Which peasant afford that? Has the cost dropped after last-mile? What industry is attracted to that - Big 4 manufacturing?

You cannot compare cost of solar with cost of connection..once off cost.35k is because you generally need a treated post cost 20k and cable plus labour of 15K.That is easy to sort...solar, wind, geothermal and such cost around 8-10 cent usd per unit...coal is like 1..hydro 3 cents.Please grab some book and  read these stuff.