Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on February 23, 2018, 03:36:26 PM
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html
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NASA is kaput as long as Raila insist he must ran again in 2022. MaDVD has been out in the cold for long. He need to re-think his position - accept small job from Jubilee and get back his grove somehow. He has about 10mps - he should flock those for a cabinet position in Jubilee or something close to that. Wetangula position is complicated because half Bukusu are already in Jubilee - so it likely he stick with NASA --where has a job as Minority Leader anyway. Kalonzo - I don't know what he'll do - he is btw a rock and hard place.
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These democrats need to do the civilized thing and retire. They have played their patriotic and civic duty. There is no quandary - pave the way for Joho, Orengo, Mutua, Eugene, Lusaka, etc. The "radical youth" Kichwa touts need their chance at power.
NASA is kaput as long as Raila insist he must ran again in 2022. MaDVD has been out in the cold for long. He need to re-think his position - accept small job from Jubilee and get back his grove somehow. He has about 10mps - he should flock those for a cabinet position in Jubilee or something close to that. Wetangula position is complicated because half Bukusu are already in Jubilee - so it likely he stick with NASA --where has a job as Minority Leader anyway. Kalonzo - I don't know what he'll do - he is btw a rock and hard place.
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html
They have been chasing Babu coattails forever and fatigue is setting in.
Even Joho will weary at some point
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w
I think MDVD has resigned to the reality. Kalonzo still think he can do a katikati but its clear that the no-show at swearing in did him in. Raila is going to hang around as ayatollah because the young-guns still need him. Otherwise right now the competition among the youth is on and they are going to compete by being as radical and as non-compromising as possible. Miguna has set the bar very high but I think after they watched Kalonzo, Weta and Mdvd, knocked out by one blow for being weak, nobody is even going to talk about compromising unless its about electoral justice and reforming the constitution. I can tell you that unless serious changes are made for electoral justice, a huge chunk of this country will not go into the elections and if Ruto is declared president with half the country not voting then secession will happen. There is no way the opposition will stay in a country where we did not even participate in the election of the president. This time the boycott will affect the civic, the parliamentary, the gubernatorial and the presidency. There will be a constitutional crisis of monumental propositions.
These democrats need to do the civilized thing and retire. They have played their patriotic and civic duty. There is no quandary - pave the way for Joho, Orengo, Mutua, Eugene, Lusaka, etc. The "radical youth" Kichwa touts need their chance at power.
NASA is kaput as long as Raila insist he must ran again in 2022. MaDVD has been out in the cold for long. He need to re-think his position - accept small job from Jubilee and get back his grove somehow. He has about 10mps - he should flock those for a cabinet position in Jubilee or something close to that. Wetangula position is complicated because half Bukusu are already in Jubilee - so it likely he stick with NASA --where has a job as Minority Leader anyway. Kalonzo - I don't know what he'll do - he is btw a rock and hard place.
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The opposition's unity will depend on Raila's respect for the MOU to support others - which he already violated in 2013. Committing treason is not part of the MOU. You and ODM are welcome to execute that sleight of hand but say bye bye to Wiper support.
w
I think MDVD has resigned to the reality. Kalonzo still think he can do a katikati but its clear that the no-show at swearing in did him in. Raila is going to hang around as ayatollah because the young-guns still need him. Otherwise right now the competition among the youth is on and they are going to compete by being as radical and as non-compromising as possible. Miguna has set the bar very high but I think after they watched Kalonzo, Weta and Mdvd, knocked out by one blow for being weak, nobody is even going to talk about compromising unless its about electoral justice and reforming the constitution. I can tell you that unless serious changes are made for electoral justice, a huge chunk of this country will not go into the elections and if Ruto is declared president with half the country not voting then secession will happen. There is no way the opposition will stay in a country where we did not even participate in the election of the president. This time the boycott will affect the civic, the parliamentary, the gubernatorial and the presidency. There will be a constitutional crisis of monumental propositions.
These democrats need to do the civilized thing and retire. They have played their patriotic and civic duty. There is no quandary - pave the way for Joho, Orengo, Mutua, Eugene, Lusaka, etc. The "radical youth" Kichwa touts need their chance at power.
NASA is kaput as long as Raila insist he must ran again in 2022. MaDVD has been out in the cold for long. He need to re-think his position - accept small job from Jubilee and get back his grove somehow. He has about 10mps - he should flock those for a cabinet position in Jubilee or something close to that. Wetangula position is complicated because half Bukusu are already in Jubilee - so it likely he stick with NASA --where has a job as Minority Leader anyway. Kalonzo - I don't know what he'll do - he is btw a rock and hard place.
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html
To be plain, it's not the disloyalty of the "tumbo brigade" that I loathe but their incompetence. That they would enter a pact without zoning out ODM from their turf. How do you support ODM for PORK while they field competitors in your base?? I would lock the entire Western, TZ, and part Nairobi for ANC as a condition to back Railonzo. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are POLITICAL BIMBOS that do not deserve any power.
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Bottomline: All these guys (maDVD/Kalonzo) ARE BIG FOOLS WHO imagine Raila is ready to hand over power. Raila & his luo cabal worse than Kibaki. He doesn't think whatever he commit to do - even at personal level - is worth fulfilling.I mean they can ask Ford-Kenya (before Wetangula impostor) crew of Wamalwa-Kituyi-Mukhia. Ruto tasted the same thing but quickly ran out of fire. Now Kalonzo been "enjoyed" for a decade - thankfully Raila never got power in that decade - otherwise it would have been as bitter as Ruto tasted. Raila and his Luo cabal would have hounded them as soon as they were in statehouse.
Then you've got people claiming Mt Kenya/GEMA are worse? Like really? How comes Ruto has enjoyed blissful 6 yrs so far with Mt Kenya mafia? How come Moi became VP for 12yrs and PORK?
The worse I tell you are Odinga's Luos - who feel entitled to the leadership of Kenya and will use all means to ran roughshod over other kenyans. Thank goodness it's never happened.
Now MaDVD and Kalonzo and Wetangula if they had the some little brains in their head would already been running for the hill. Combined NASA cannot beat Jubilee. So it really waste of time to go for third time in 2022.
Combine Kalonzo+MaDVD+Wetangula - they can pull no 2 or 3 in 2022 - and Ruto may not contain fallout over running mate & may fail to get 50% outright. If it comes to that - these guys will have leverage to join GoK.
Now they've dilly-dallied and UhuRuto have split the animal - there is nothing left - few CAS, PS and Ambassadorial positions.
If they follow Raila and Kichwa Mbaya ideas - they will go to 2022 - for another beating where they may even withdraw :) again - making Ruto win with 99% & 290Mps in parliament. If you boycot and some candidate stand & get 1 vote - they win.
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Pundit something tells me Kalonzo has gone soft on Jubilee - after the ODM brigade openly went gung-ho on him ala 2022 - some even calling him watermelon. With the Mutua complication this 5yrs are his last shot at some GoK cake.
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Your diatribe against the luo is not backed by evidence. Odinga toshad Jomo and Raila toshad Kibaki. Raila is even blamed for NARA which kept Kibaki in power. Kalenjins have supported Raila and Uhuru and so have the other tribes but Kikuyus have supported no one and yet you go on and on about luos who have never been in power. You really must think everybody else is an idiot. Weta and MDVD did this to themselves and they only have themselves to blame. They sold out to Ruto but he will never get the Luhyia Nation to make up for the huge chunk of GEMA that he has already lost. Also, there will be no electoral political business in this country as usual until electoral reforms are made. You can take that to the bank. We will boycott elections at all levels and this time there will be no president of Kenya sworn in after only 25% of the country has voted. This time if they try that it will not work because there will be a parallel swearing in on the same day of opposition president followed by secession. We are not playing this time around.
Bottomline: All these guys (maDVD/Kalonzo) ARE BIG FOOLS WHO imagine Raila is ready to hand over power. Raila & his luo cabal worse than Kibaki. He doesn't think whatever he commit to do - even at personal level - is worth fulfilling.I mean they can ask Ford-Kenya (before Wetangula impostor) crew of Wamalwa-Kituyi-Mukhia. Ruto tasted the same thing but quickly ran out of fire. Now Kalonzo been "enjoyed" for a decade - thankfully Raila never got power in that decade - otherwise it would have been as bitter as Ruto tasted. Raila and his Luo cabal would have hounded them as soon as they were in statehouse.
Then you've got people claiming Mt Kenya/GEMA are worse? Like really? How comes Ruto has enjoyed blissful 6 yrs so far with Mt Kenya mafia? How come Moi became VP for 12yrs and PORK?
The worse I tell you are Odinga's Luos - who feel entitled to the leadership of Kenya and will use all means to ran roughshod over other kenyans. Thank goodness it's never happened.
Now MaDVD and Kalonzo and Wetangula if they had the some little brains in their head would already been running for the hill. Combined NASA cannot beat Jubilee. So it really waste of time to go for third time in 2022.
Combine Kalonzo+MaDVD+Wetangula - they can pull no 2 or 3 in 2022 - and Ruto may not contain fallout over running mate & may fail to get 50% outright. If it comes to that - these guys will have leverage to join GoK.
Now they've dilly-dallied and UhuRuto have split the animal - there is nothing left - few CAS, PS and Ambassadorial positions.
If they follow Raila and Kichwa Mbaya ideas - they will go to 2022 - for another beating where they may even withdraw :) again - making Ruto win with 99% & 290Mps in parliament. If you boycot and some candidate stand & get 1 vote - they win.
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The question is if President Raila would co-rule smoothly with a DPORK or PM? In the UhuRuto mold. The Kijana Wamalwa and Ruto experiences do not inspire trust. Nor do NARC and NARA.
The tried and tested kingmaker resists his curse fiercely. In lieu he dedigns a kingmaker-in-chief post (PM) that noone but he is keen on.
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Thanks for the summary. It appears the whole swearing in was means to an end - Raila gets away with binding MOU with poor Kalonzo & maDVD yet again.
The question is if President Raila would co-rule smoothly with a DPORK or PM? In the UhuRuto mold. The Kijana Wamalwa and Ruto experiences do not inspire trust. Nor do NARC and NARA.
The tried and tested kingmaker resists his curse fiercely. In lieu he dedigns a kingmaker-in-chief post (PM) that noone but he is keen on.
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If you remove ideology and principles from this analysis then it becomes too simplistic analysis just to buttress your already negative attitude towards Raila. Raila remains relevant in politics today because he kept true to his principles when others could not and decided to sell out. That is not Raila's problem. If Raila sold his soul, he would have been president a long time ago. Its better he not be president than to sell his soul.
Thanks for the summary. It appears the whole swearing in was means to an end - Raila gets away with binding MOU with poor Kalonzo & maDVD yet again.
The question is if President Raila would co-rule smoothly with a DPORK or PM? In the UhuRuto mold. The Kijana Wamalwa and Ruto experiences do not inspire trust. Nor do NARC and NARA.
The tried and tested kingmaker resists his curse fiercely. In lieu he dedigns a kingmaker-in-chief post (PM) that noone but he is keen on.
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html)
To be plain, it's not the disloyalty of the "tumbo brigade" that I loathe but their incompetence. That they would enter a pact without zoning out ODM from their turf. How do you support ODM for PORK while they field competitors in your base?? I would lock the entire Western, TZ, and part Nairobi for ANC as a condition to back Railonzo. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are POLITICAL BIMBOS that do not deserve any power.
I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
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I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
Raila does not have majority support - let alone 100% - outside of Luo Nyanza without the tribal principals. Not the Luhya, the Kisii or even the Mijikenda. Without Nanok for instance the Turkana would be a problem. Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.
The best thing to do is to genuinely embrace the kingmaker role - and settle for 50% of the cabinet and executive jobs -
through foolproof MOU with Kalonzo and Mudavadi. For now the transparent trick where he gets to back a ceremonial D/PORK - and become executive PM - is DOA. Obsession with being called Mheshimiwa Rais is egoistic and self defeating. Just get the House Speaker and Majority Leader as guarantee.
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It is a sick joke that Raila has the majority on his own merit or based on some issues or principles. Raila inherited KANU - which became LDP and later ODM. That is what he's been riding on. We know ODM has been diminishing every year - of course Kichwa and his lankey terminator will ignore that & call it rigging - but as we speak ODM as party got 60mps - or about 18-20% of national assembly - that is true reflection of what Raila is worth now.
Raila does not have majority support - let alone 100% - outside of Luo Nyanza without the tribal principals. Not the Luhya, the Kisii or even the Mijikenda. Without Nanok for instance the Turkana would be a problem. Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.
The best thing to do is to genuinely embrace the kingmaker role - and settle for 50% of the cabinet and executive jobs -
through foolproof MOU with Kalonzo and Mudavadi. For now the transparent trick where he gets to back a ceremonial D/PORK - and become executive PM - is DOA. Obsession with being called Mheshimiwa Rais is egoistic and self defeating. Just get the House Speaker and Majority Leader as guarantee.
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It is a sick joke that Raila has the majority on his own merit or based on some issues or principles. Raila inherited KANU - which became LDP and later ODM. That is what he's been riding on. We know ODM has been diminishing every year - of course Kichwa and his lankey terminator will ignore that & call it rigging - but as we speak ODM as party got 60mps - or about 18-20% of national assembly - that is true reflection of what Raila is worth now.
Raila does not have majority support - let alone 100% - outside of Luo Nyanza without the tribal principals. Not the Luhya, the Kisii or even the Mijikenda. Without Nanok for instance the Turkana would be a problem. Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.
The best thing to do is to genuinely embrace the kingmaker role - and settle for 50% of the cabinet and executive jobs -
through foolproof MOU with Kalonzo and Mudavadi. For now the transparent trick where he gets to back a ceremonial D/PORK - and become executive PM - is DOA. Obsession with being called Mheshimiwa Rais is egoistic and self defeating. Just get the House Speaker and Majority Leader as guarantee.
The rigging conclusion is because of IEBC's actions August 8th and subsequent defiance of court orders. I can provide links if you want.
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I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
Raila does not have majority support - let alone 100% - outside of Luo Nyanza without the tribal principals. Not the Luhya, the Kisii or even the Mijikenda. Without Nanok for instance the Turkana would be a problem. Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.
The best thing to do is to genuinely embrace the kingmaker role - and settle for 50% of the cabinet and executive jobs -
through foolproof MOU with Kalonzo and Mudavadi. For now the transparent trick where he gets to back a ceremonial D/PORK - and become executive PM - is DOA. Obsession with being called Mheshimiwa Rais is egoistic and self defeating. Just get the House Speaker and Majority Leader as guarantee.
It's just a figure of speech. No he doesn't have 100% support from any community, including Luo Nyanza.
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The link I want to show you instead is that in rigged 2013- Raila ODM party had 96mps - and now he has 62mps - I can help you with percentage - but just know at it apex ODM had nearly 50% of parliament in 2007 and 2013 it went down to 33% and in 2017 it gone to 23% and you can guess in 2022 it will be about 13% - Luo Nyanza. Just about where Raila was in NDP in 1997. I have not seen this kind of full circle before in kenya politics. People start small and end up as national players like Raila/Moi/Kenyattas/Kibakis or stagnated like Kalonzo & then quit...but you don't see this kind of longevity like Raila where someone is so convinced of his ppoularity while evidence out there...say NOT ANYMORE.
Raila will definitely ran in 2022 and perform even worse than 2017! Right now Raila and his groupies have convinced themselves that MaDVD/Kalonzo/Weta will not dent their votes....but trust me come 2022...Raila will struggle to win an MP outside Luo Nyanza and it's diaspora.In 2017 - Raila got zero MP in Gusii region I think :D. He got zero Mp in entire Bukusu land I think. Out of 11mps in Kakamega - I think he got only two.
What gonna happen - Kalonzo and Mutua will fight for Kamba vote - MaDVD/Weta will square in western - else where Jubilee will take its picking because Ruto is willing to spend the dime & time. Raila will as always depend on his brand of populism but he long hit marginal return.
Raila biggest supporter outside Luo Nyanza is Joho - who depend on Luo-Luhya diaspora votes in Mombasa to stay afloat.
The rigging conclusion is because of IEBC's actions August 8th and subsequent defiance of court orders. I can provide links if you want.
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Joho is not mijikenda. He is a minority who depend on mijikenda votes as well Luo-Luhya diaspora votes in Mombasa to stay afloat. I think if Ruto wins Amason Kingi - and add to Mvurya & brigade - then he can easily prize away the coast from Raila.
Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.
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Babu has been vowing to boycott elections since 2007.
Secession banished
People’s Assembly banished
Not yet Babu
Your diatribe against the luo is not backed by evidence. Odinga toshad Jomo and Raila toshad Kibaki. Raila is even blamed for NARA which kept Kibaki in power. Kalenjins have supported Raila and Uhuru and so have the other tribes but Kikuyus have supported no one and yet you go on and on about luos who have never been in power. You really must think everybody else is an idiot. Weta and MDVD did this to themselves and they only have themselves to blame. They sold out to Ruto but he will never get the Luhyia Nation to make up for the huge chunk of GEMA that he has already lost. Also, there will be no electoral political business in this country as usual until electoral reforms are made. You can take that to the bank. We will boycott elections at all levels and this time there will be no president of Kenya sworn in after only 25% of the country has voted. This time if they try that it will not work because there will be a parallel swearing in on the same day of opposition president followed by secession. We are not playing this time around.
Bottomline: All these guys (maDVD/Kalonzo) ARE BIG FOOLS WHO imagine Raila is ready to hand over power. Raila & his luo cabal worse than Kibaki. He doesn't think whatever he commit to do - even at personal level - is worth fulfilling.I mean they can ask Ford-Kenya (before Wetangula impostor) crew of Wamalwa-Kituyi-Mukhia. Ruto tasted the same thing but quickly ran out of fire. Now Kalonzo been "enjoyed" for a decade - thankfully Raila never got power in that decade - otherwise it would have been as bitter as Ruto tasted. Raila and his Luo cabal would have hounded them as soon as they were in statehouse.
Then you've got people claiming Mt Kenya/GEMA are worse? Like really? How comes Ruto has enjoyed blissful 6 yrs so far with Mt Kenya mafia? How come Moi became VP for 12yrs and PORK?
The worse I tell you are Odinga's Luos - who feel entitled to the leadership of Kenya and will use all means to ran roughshod over other kenyans. Thank goodness it's never happened.
Now MaDVD and Kalonzo and Wetangula if they had the some little brains in their head would already been running for the hill. Combined NASA cannot beat Jubilee. So it really waste of time to go for third time in 2022.
Combine Kalonzo+MaDVD+Wetangula - they can pull no 2 or 3 in 2022 - and Ruto may not contain fallout over running mate & may fail to get 50% outright. If it comes to that - these guys will have leverage to join GoK.
Now they've dilly-dallied and UhuRuto have split the animal - there is nothing left - few CAS, PS and Ambassadorial positions.
If they follow Raila and Kichwa Mbaya ideas - they will go to 2022 - for another beating where they may even withdraw :) again - making Ruto win with 99% & 290Mps in parliament. If you boycot and some candidate stand & get 1 vote - they win.
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html)
To be plain, it's not the disloyalty of the "tumbo brigade" that I loathe but their incompetence. That they would enter a pact without zoning out ODM from their turf. How do you support ODM for PORK while they field competitors in your base?? I would lock the entire Western, TZ, and part Nairobi for ANC as a condition to back Railonzo. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are POLITICAL BIMBOS that do not deserve any power.
I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
Assuming you believe Babu
Babu claims according to the ‘authentic results’ he won with 8.3 and Uhunye had 7.8
Means Losing any of the existing principal would chew into this narrow lead,and he would lose. Babu ain’t stupid and he knows he can’t storm their bases and walk away with everything,at least not yet. His best shot is formenting real discord in their bases. Already we have some MPs from Bungoma who are loudly wondering why Weta skipped. Next thing is to replace them. Can be done in under 4yrs.
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He already boycotted the 11/26 and will lead a boycott another boycott if necessary. The 2nd time will be far much better organized and more effective.
Babu has been vowing to boycott elections since 2007.
Secession banished
People’s Assembly banished
Not yet Babu
Your diatribe against the luo is not backed by evidence. Odinga toshad Jomo and Raila toshad Kibaki. Raila is even blamed for NARA which kept Kibaki in power. Kalenjins have supported Raila and Uhuru and so have the other tribes but Kikuyus have supported no one and yet you go on and on about luos who have never been in power. You really must think everybody else is an idiot. Weta and MDVD did this to themselves and they only have themselves to blame. They sold out to Ruto but he will never get the Luhyia Nation to make up for the huge chunk of GEMA that he has already lost. Also, there will be no electoral political business in this country as usual until electoral reforms are made. You can take that to the bank. We will boycott elections at all levels and this time there will be no president of Kenya sworn in after only 25% of the country has voted. This time if they try that it will not work because there will be a parallel swearing in on the same day of opposition president followed by secession. We are not playing this time around.
Bottomline: All these guys (maDVD/Kalonzo) ARE BIG FOOLS WHO imagine Raila is ready to hand over power. Raila & his luo cabal worse than Kibaki. He doesn't think whatever he commit to do - even at personal level - is worth fulfilling.I mean they can ask Ford-Kenya (before Wetangula impostor) crew of Wamalwa-Kituyi-Mukhia. Ruto tasted the same thing but quickly ran out of fire. Now Kalonzo been "enjoyed" for a decade - thankfully Raila never got power in that decade - otherwise it would have been as bitter as Ruto tasted. Raila and his Luo cabal would have hounded them as soon as they were in statehouse.
Then you've got people claiming Mt Kenya/GEMA are worse? Like really? How comes Ruto has enjoyed blissful 6 yrs so far with Mt Kenya mafia? How come Moi became VP for 12yrs and PORK?
The worse I tell you are Odinga's Luos - who feel entitled to the leadership of Kenya and will use all means to ran roughshod over other kenyans. Thank goodness it's never happened.
Now MaDVD and Kalonzo and Wetangula if they had the some little brains in their head would already been running for the hill. Combined NASA cannot beat Jubilee. So it really waste of time to go for third time in 2022.
Combine Kalonzo+MaDVD+Wetangula - they can pull no 2 or 3 in 2022 - and Ruto may not contain fallout over running mate & may fail to get 50% outright. If it comes to that - these guys will have leverage to join GoK.
Now they've dilly-dallied and UhuRuto have split the animal - there is nothing left - few CAS, PS and Ambassadorial positions.
If they follow Raila and Kichwa Mbaya ideas - they will go to 2022 - for another beating where they may even withdraw :) again - making Ruto win with 99% & 290Mps in parliament. If you boycot and some candidate stand & get 1 vote - they win.
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Yeah right
He already boycotted the 11/26 and will lead a boycott another boycott if necessary. The 2nd time will be far much better organized and more effective.
Babu has been vowing to boycott elections since 2007.
Secession banished
People’s Assembly banished
Not yet Babu
Your diatribe against the luo is not backed by evidence. Odinga toshad Jomo and Raila toshad Kibaki. Raila is even blamed for NARA which kept Kibaki in power. Kalenjins have supported Raila and Uhuru and so have the other tribes but Kikuyus have supported no one and yet you go on and on about luos who have never been in power. You really must think everybody else is an idiot. Weta and MDVD did this to themselves and they only have themselves to blame. They sold out to Ruto but he will never get the Luhyia Nation to make up for the huge chunk of GEMA that he has already lost. Also, there will be no electoral political business in this country as usual until electoral reforms are made. You can take that to the bank. We will boycott elections at all levels and this time there will be no president of Kenya sworn in after only 25% of the country has voted. This time if they try that it will not work because there will be a parallel swearing in on the same day of opposition president followed by secession. We are not playing this time around.
Bottomline: All these guys (maDVD/Kalonzo) ARE BIG FOOLS WHO imagine Raila is ready to hand over power. Raila & his luo cabal worse than Kibaki. He doesn't think whatever he commit to do - even at personal level - is worth fulfilling.I mean they can ask Ford-Kenya (before Wetangula impostor) crew of Wamalwa-Kituyi-Mukhia. Ruto tasted the same thing but quickly ran out of fire. Now Kalonzo been "enjoyed" for a decade - thankfully Raila never got power in that decade - otherwise it would have been as bitter as Ruto tasted. Raila and his Luo cabal would have hounded them as soon as they were in statehouse.
Then you've got people claiming Mt Kenya/GEMA are worse? Like really? How comes Ruto has enjoyed blissful 6 yrs so far with Mt Kenya mafia? How come Moi became VP for 12yrs and PORK?
The worse I tell you are Odinga's Luos - who feel entitled to the leadership of Kenya and will use all means to ran roughshod over other kenyans. Thank goodness it's never happened.
Now MaDVD and Kalonzo and Wetangula if they had the some little brains in their head would already been running for the hill. Combined NASA cannot beat Jubilee. So it really waste of time to go for third time in 2022.
Combine Kalonzo+MaDVD+Wetangula - they can pull no 2 or 3 in 2022 - and Ruto may not contain fallout over running mate & may fail to get 50% outright. If it comes to that - these guys will have leverage to join GoK.
Now they've dilly-dallied and UhuRuto have split the animal - there is nothing left - few CAS, PS and Ambassadorial positions.
If they follow Raila and Kichwa Mbaya ideas - they will go to 2022 - for another beating where they may even withdraw :) again - making Ruto win with 99% & 290Mps in parliament. If you boycot and some candidate stand & get 1 vote - they win.
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I know. But Raila has milked the Jomo land propaganda dry. With Kingi, Mvurya, Dhado tenures ending they will be enticed by Ruto easily - and ODM will be left high and dry. Ruto is not tainted by the Coast land maneno.
If the Bukusu and Kisii are hived off ODM will be NDP. Raila needs to play kingmaker politics today-2022... before he hits 80yrs and is left with 25MPs like Wiper.
Joho is not mijikenda. He is a minority who depend on mijikenda votes as well Luo-Luhya diaspora votes in Mombasa to stay afloat. I think if Ruto wins Amason Kingi - and add to Mvurya & brigade - then he can easily prize away the coast from Raila.
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What has been milked to death is that Raila will be isolated and will only remain with luo Nyanza. There is more merit to the argument that Ruto will be isolated than that Raila will. Raila would beat Mdvd with more votes now in western than he did in 2013. Those thinking that this is a luo movement are out of touch and not even worth responding to.
I know. But Raila has milked the Jomo land propaganda dry. With Kingi, Mvurya, Dhado tenures ending they will be enticed by Ruto easily - and ODM will be left high and dry. Ruto is not tainted by the Coast land maneno.
If the Bukusu and Kisii are hived off ODM will be NDP. Raila needs to play kingmaker politics today-2022... before he hits 80yrs and is left with 25MPs like Wiper.
Joho is not mijikenda. He is a minority who depend on mijikenda votes as well Luo-Luhya diaspora votes in Mombasa to stay afloat. I think if Ruto wins Amason Kingi - and add to Mvurya & brigade - then he can easily prize away the coast from Raila.
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html)
To be plain, it's not the disloyalty of the "tumbo brigade" that I loathe but their incompetence. That they would enter a pact without zoning out ODM from their turf. How do you support ODM for PORK while they field competitors in your base?? I would lock the entire Western, TZ, and part Nairobi for ANC as a condition to back Railonzo. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are POLITICAL BIMBOS that do not deserve any power.
I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
Assuming you believe Babu
Babu claims according to the ‘authentic results’ he won with 8.3 and Uhunye had 7.8
Means Losing any of the existing principal would chew into this narrow lead,and he would lose. Babu ain’t stupid and he knows he can’t storm their bases and walk away with everything,at least not yet. His best shot is formenting real discord in their bases. Already we have some MPs from Bungoma who are loudly wondering why Weta skipped. Next thing is to replace them. Can be done in under 4yrs.
How much he wins with? I have no way of knowing. I am not even sure that is knowable at this point.
Did he win? This I feel he did with a high degree of confidence.
On that basis, I feel it doesn't matter if he wins or not, the outcome was always going to be rejected. That is partly why I am not thrilled by ethnic arithmetic and detailed analysis of what IMO is a non-fact.
For that reason too, Raila should not worry if the only support he is left with is his village in Bondo, when he makes the suggested move. I think MDVD, Weta and Kalonzo should be encouraged and hounded to move to Jubilee.
I think that when such clarity is established, Raila has a decent chance of getting countrywide support outside of GEMA and Kalenjin land. He has a fight on his hands. These guys are just deadweight at best.
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I am not actually spewing propaganda here - am being objective. ODM at its peak in 2007 had 50% of parliament; this shrunk to 30% in 2013. It now has 20%? What's the trajectory? Same for governors. We can ignore the contested PORK vote for this argument.
Look at Kisii, Maasai, Turkana, Coast, Somali/NEP - ODM has lost support. NEP it's literally a rout. It's not just the presidency or executive power that ODM has lost.
Western - ODM's power is aided by Mudavadi and Wetang’ula's ineptitude as leaders. Bukusu is gone - with those 4 Jubilee MPs in Bungoma - and the goodies the Wamalwas, Lusakas, Washialis have got. The Luhya trajectory is very bad for ODM. I agree Raila would retain half Vihiga and Kakamega without Mudavadi. Very comforting.
Now, all of this support ODM has lost has gone to Jubilee - specifically to William Ruto. Like Pundit says there is no merited popularity Raila ever enjoyed by patriotics or heroics - just good old chess moves by the NDP trojan horse. The dust has since settled and he has 20% - and this overt apparency will occur if he pisses on the MOU. NASA has 36% of parliament :ODM 20%, Wiper 8%, ANC 4%, FordK 3%. These numbers will only dwindle.
So you can go ahead and do that NRM ritual - you can puff your chest and declare "the people are with Baba" - and claim you have a timeless strategy to prove it. That's okay but the reality disagrees. This is nipate and you won't get away with it. Even if MOON Ki is awol.
Mr Odinga has a final lapsing window to play kingmaker - for his knights Kalonzo and Mudavadi - before the game is done.
What has been milked to death is that Raila will be isolated and will only remain with luo Nyanza. There is more merit to the argument that Ruto will be isolated than that Raila will. Raila would beat Mdvd with more votes now in western than he did in 2013. Those thinking that this is a luo movement are out of touch and not even worth responding to.
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The link I want to show you instead is that in rigged 2013- Raila ODM party had 96mps - and now he has 62mps - I can help you with percentage - but just know at it apex ODM had nearly 50% of parliament in 2007 and 2013 it went down to 33% and in 2017 it gone to 23% and you can guess in 2022 it will be about 13% - Luo Nyanza. Just about where Raila was in NDP in 1997. I have not seen this kind of full circle before in kenya politics. People start small and end up as national players like Raila/Moi/Kenyattas/Kibakis or stagnated like Kalonzo & then quit...but you don't see this kind of longevity like Raila where someone is so convinced of his ppoularity while evidence out there...say NOT ANYMORE.
Raila will definitely ran in 2022 and perform even worse than 2017! Right now Raila and his groupies have convinced themselves that MaDVD/Kalonzo/Weta will not dent their votes....but trust me come 2022...Raila will struggle to win an MP outside Luo Nyanza and it's diaspora.In 2017 - Raila got zero MP in Gusii region I think :D. He got zero Mp in entire Bukusu land I think. Out of 11mps in Kakamega - I think he got only two.
What gonna happen - Kalonzo and Mutua will fight for Kamba vote - MaDVD/Weta will square in western - else where Jubilee will take its picking because Ruto is willing to spend the dime & time. Raila will as always depend on his brand of populism but he long hit marginal return.
Raila biggest supporter outside Luo Nyanza is Joho - who depend on Luo-Luhya diaspora votes in Mombasa to stay afloat.
The rigging conclusion is because of IEBC's actions August 8th and subsequent defiance of court orders. I can provide links if you want.
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You nailed it Robina. They cannot respond to such facts. The entire Maa land - they got only got Ole Kina - Mp of Narok North & Ledama the senator - elsewhere it was rout - from Namanga to Samburu.Turkana with Nanok out - it's game over for Raila. We can go on and on - but Raila trajectory is not good. Even in Western former ODM - I think MaDVD can actually make that count if he stood for PORK or got out NASA & find some jobs for home boys. Raila strategy - boycott election & other ideas - have left his supporters totally worn out.
I am not actually spewing propaganda here - am being objective. ODM at its peak in 2007 had 50% of parliament; this shrunk to 30% in 2013. It now has 20%? What's the trajectory? Same for governors. We can ignore the contested PORK vote for this argument.
Look at Kisii, Maasai, Turkana, Coast, Somali/NEP - ODM has lost support. NEP it's literally a rout. It's not just the presidency or executive power that ODM has lost.
Western - ODM's power is aided by Mudavadi and Wetang’ula's ineptitude as leaders. Bukusu is gone - with those 4 Jubilee MPs in Bungoma - and the goodies the Wamalwas, Lusakas, Washialis have got. The Luhya trajectory is very bad for ODM. I agree Raila would retain half Vihiga and Kakamega without Mudavadi. Very comforting.
Now, all of this support ODM has lost has gone to Jubilee - specifically to William Ruto. Like Pundit says there is no merited popularity Raila ever enjoyed by patriotics or heroics - just good old chess moves by the NDP trojan horse. The dust has since settled and he has 20% - and this overt apparency will occur if he pisses on the MOU. NASA has 36% of parliament :ODM 20%, Wiper 8%, ANC 4%, FordK 3%. These numbers will only dwindle.
So you can go ahead and do that NRM ritual - you can puff your chest and declare "the people are with Baba" - and claim you have a timeless strategy to prove it. That's okay but the reality disagrees. This is nipate and you won't get away with it. Even if MOON Ki is awol.
Mr Odinga has a final lapsing window to play kingmaker - for his knights Kalonzo and Mudavadi - before the game is done.
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Pundit - Raila's antics like boycotts plus poor execution are bad enough. Still his worst heel remains entitlement. He believes he's destined to be Luanda Magere and is thus delusional or blind to reality. So unlike Ruto he cannot settle for teamwork but wants it all.
He played smart 92-02... then go against PORK like he did not learn from pap Jaramogi & Matiba. The NARC demean Kibaki blunder opened the window for Ruto and it was downhill since.
Rather than face this reality and deal, his ego craves the throne. His ideas and chief advisor Dr David Ndii - who like him claims to have created the new constitution - they are true ideologues. They created presidential system but want PM. They set up a miniscule devolution and emasculated the Senate but now want majimbo. One would think - an Ivy League technocrat would have put accountability in the law. Say PORK candidates sign up targets - overseen by judiciary, AU, OECD, etc - with GDP, jobs, and such metrics. Failure would lead to disqualification of more terms. Not the chapter 6 or two term airhead standards that are irrelevant to performance. Ndii and the so-called Committee of Experts - CoE - which was actually a committee of quacks - believe a priest or professor is a better leader than a proven Machiavellian like Ruto. Not so and empirically we can disprove this.
Delusions of grandieur.. expect the antics to aluta continua.
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I agree on Raila. He feels he must be PORK before he dies like his dad too was cursed.
I disagree on constitution...constitution cannot "harakisha" a society. You cannot have progressive constitution on top of a retrogressive society. This constitution or another would do just fine...the reality is we are dealing with base/basic issues...we just need to build on the gains...devolution hopefully will lead to federalism. That to me is the real gain of 2010 constitution. The rest (judiciary or parliament) can be easily destroyed by a determined pork. Nobody can take away devolved gok now. That is a real gain.
Pundit - Raila's antics like boycotts plus poor execution are bad enough. Still his worst heel remains entitlement. He believes he's destined to be Luanda Magere and is thus delusional or blind to reality. So unlike Ruto he cannot settle for teamwork but wants it all.
He played smart 92-02... then go against PORK like he did not learn from pap Jaramogi & Matiba. The NARC demeam Kibaki blunder opened the window for Ruto and it was downhill since.
Rather than face this reality and deal, his ego craves the throne. His ideas and chief advisor Dr David Ndii - who like him claims to have created the new constitution - they are true ideologues. They created presidential system but want PM. They set up a miniscule devolution and emasculated the Senate but now want majimbo. One would think - an Ivy League technocrat would have put accountability in the law. Say PORK candidates sign up targets - overseen by judiciary, AU, OECD, etc - with GDP, jobs, and such metrics. Failure would lead to disqualification of more terms. Not the chapter 6 or two term airhead standards that are irrelevant to performance. Ndii and the so-called Committee of Experts - CoE - which was actually a committee of quacks - believe a priest or professor is a better leader than a proven Machiavellian like Ruto. Not so and empirically we can disprove this.
Delusions of grandieur.. expect the antics to aluta continua.
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I am not actually spewing propaganda here - am being objective. ODM at its peak in 2007 had 50% of parliament; this shrunk to 30% in 2013. It now has 20%? What's the trajectory? Same for governors. We can ignore the contested PORK vote for this argument.
Look at Kisii, Maasai, Turkana, Coast, Somali/NEP - ODM has lost support. NEP it's literally a rout. It's not just the presidency or executive power that ODM has lost.
Western - ODM's power is aided by Mudavadi and Wetang’ula's ineptitude as leaders. Bukusu is gone - with those 4 Jubilee MPs in Bungoma - and the goodies the Wamalwas, Lusakas, Washialis have got. The Luhya trajectory is very bad for ODM. I agree Raila would retain half Vihiga and Kakamega without Mudavadi. Very comforting.
Now, all of this support ODM has lost has gone to Jubilee - specifically to William Ruto. Like Pundit says there is no merited popularity Raila ever enjoyed by patriotics or heroics - just good old chess moves by the NDP trojan horse. The dust has since settled and he has 20% - and this overt apparency will occur if he pisses on the MOU. NASA has 36% of parliament :ODM 20%, Wiper 8%, ANC 4%, FordK 3%. These numbers will only dwindle.
So you can go ahead and do that NRM ritual - you can puff your chest and declare "the people are with Baba" - and claim you have a timeless strategy to prove it. That's okay but the reality disagrees. This is nipate and you won't get away with it. Even if MOON Ki is awol.
Mr Odinga has a final lapsing window to play kingmaker - for his knights Kalonzo and Mudavadi - before the game is done.
What has been milked to death is that Raila will be isolated and will only remain with luo Nyanza. There is more merit to the argument that Ruto will be isolated than that Raila will. Raila would beat Mdvd with more votes now in western than he did in 2013. Those thinking that this is a luo movement are out of touch and not even worth responding to.
Very well put.
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Why is Kagame better than M7 if it is all about the average Joe? Leadership matters - and the constitution should entrench merit - unlike ours which says the priest or nun is the most qualified to lead. If we have to hardwire standards let them be about performance.
You can see the selection criteria can make a big difference. Where KCB hires a finance controller from the construction industry for CEO. Or well, Safaricom hires PR guy with board experience as CEO of the biggest regional tech company. Instead of looking for real past RESULTS which both men lack. You can say a Mutua - performing county executive - might deliver as CS/D/PORK - Joho would talk and talk while the garbage mountains multiply. Sifting the wheat from the chaff - the better talent - is more katiba than clueless mwananchi.
It is this frustration that drives Ruto to the Chinese Communist. It's a big aspiration to see China as a model - while NASA/ODM seem inspired by Tsivangirai the failure.
I agree on Raila. He feels he must be PORK before he dies like his dad too was cursed.
I disagree on constitution...constitution cannot "harakisha" a society. You cannot have progressive constitution on top of a retrogressive society. This constitution or another would do just fine...the reality is we are dealing with base/basic issues...we just need to build on the gains...devolution hopefully will lead to federalism. That to me is the real gain of 2010 constitution. The rest (judiciary or parliament) can be easily destroyed by a determined pork. Nobody can take away devolved gok now. That is a real gain.
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html)
To be plain, it's not the disloyalty of the "tumbo brigade" that I loathe but their incompetence. That they would enter a pact without zoning out ODM from their turf. How do you support ODM for PORK while they field competitors in your base?? I would lock the entire Western, TZ, and part Nairobi for ANC as a condition to back Railonzo. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are POLITICAL BIMBOS that do not deserve any power.
I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
Assuming you believe Babu
Babu claims according to the ‘authentic results’ he won with 8.3 and Uhunye had 7.8
Means Losing any of the existing principal would chew into this narrow lead,and he would lose. Babu ain’t stupid and he knows he can’t storm their bases and walk away with everything,at least not yet. His best shot is formenting real discord in their bases. Already we have some MPs from Bungoma who are loudly wondering why Weta skipped. Next thing is to replace them. Can be done in under 4yrs.
How much he wins with? I have no way of knowing. I am not even sure that is knowable at this point.
Did he win? This I feel he did with a high degree of confidence.
On that basis, I feel it doesn't matter if he wins or not, the outcome was always going to be rejected. That is partly why I am not thrilled by ethnic arithmetic and detailed analysis of what IMO is a non-fact.
For that reason too, Raila should not worry if the only support he is left with is his village in Bondo, when he makes the suggested move. I think MDVD, Weta and Kalonzo should be encouraged and hounded to move to Jubilee.
I think that when such clarity is established, Raila has a decent chance of getting countrywide support outside of GEMA and Kalenjin land. He has a fight on his hands. These guys are just deadweight at best.
Kenya is no country for lone rangers and I thought you should be the last person to fantasize about that.
Sorry for interrupting your dreams
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html)
To be plain, it's not the disloyalty of the "tumbo brigade" that I loathe but their incompetence. That they would enter a pact without zoning out ODM from their turf. How do you support ODM for PORK while they field competitors in your base?? I would lock the entire Western, TZ, and part Nairobi for ANC as a condition to back Railonzo. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are POLITICAL BIMBOS that do not deserve any power.
I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
Assuming you believe Babu
Babu claims according to the ‘authentic results’ he won with 8.3 and Uhunye had 7.8
Means Losing any of the existing principal would chew into this narrow lead,and he would lose. Babu ain’t stupid and he knows he can’t storm their bases and walk away with everything,at least not yet. His best shot is formenting real discord in their bases. Already we have some MPs from Bungoma who are loudly wondering why Weta skipped. Next thing is to replace them. Can be done in under 4yrs.
How much he wins with? I have no way of knowing. I am not even sure that is knowable at this point.
Did he win? This I feel he did with a high degree of confidence.
On that basis, I feel it doesn't matter if he wins or not, the outcome was always going to be rejected. That is partly why I am not thrilled by ethnic arithmetic and detailed analysis of what IMO is a non-fact.
For that reason too, Raila should not worry if the only support he is left with is his village in Bondo, when he makes the suggested move. I think MDVD, Weta and Kalonzo should be encouraged and hounded to move to Jubilee.
I think that when such clarity is established, Raila has a decent chance of getting countrywide support outside of GEMA and Kalenjin land. He has a fight on his hands. These guys are just deadweight at best.
Kenya is no country for lone rangers and I thought you should be the last person to fantasize about that.
Sorry for interrupting your dreams
The real delusion is the notion that there is some legitimate process in which a President can be elected. When you are deluded like that, you want to discuss alliances, tribal arithmetic etc as if it matters. It doesn't.
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Do you suggest, bitmask, that ODM has shed numbers in parliament and the counties but raised its presidential popularity? I would be happy to consider your logic, other than the deadbeat IEBC server that is.
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What do people here make of the new bill- to reintroduce the parliamentary system? Sponsored by Jubilee's Tiaty MP? I believe a proper parliamentary system - with gerrymandered boundaries or backdoor, etc - is better in tribal Kenya. Vouched for it in the days we were told the pure presidency is manna from heaven.
Bid to bring powerful prime minister, weak president
https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/Bid-to-create-ruler-PM-weak-president/1950946-4322396-oov93q/index.html (https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/Bid-to-create-ruler-PM-weak-president/1950946-4322396-oov93q/index.html)
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Do you suggest, bitmask, that ODM has shed numbers in parliament and the counties but raised its presidential popularity? I would be happy to consider your logic, other than the deadbeat IEBC server that is.
You want me to explain gravity without the concept of mass... :D. You can’t meaningfully talk 2017 Presidential election without including IEBC. And the server in particular.
IEBC is a tainted referee.
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Do you suggest, bitmask, that ODM has shed numbers in parliament and the counties but raised its presidential popularity? I would be happy to consider your logic, other than the deadbeat IEBC server that is.
You want me to explain gravity without the concept of mass... :D. You can’t meaningfully talk 2017 Presidential election without including IEBC. And the server in particular.
IEBC is a tainted referee.
The sum total of CORD/NASA MPs shrunk from 45% to 36%. Same for governors. With the same cannibalism and other factors. The rate at which flimsy petitions are being tossed out with cost is indicative of the process integrity.
We actually enumerated the regions that have deserted ODM.
But still you maintain NASA won the presidency?
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The trouble with the IEBC server is we cannot see or question it. Other than speculate the contents and reasons for the alleged defiance. Just like the rigging evidence that NASA failed to adduce despite an elaborate agent and equipped monitor network. These are just speculations not facts we can debate.
If you were an independent analyst what would you read from the downstream ballot? To draw a conclusion about the presidency.
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html)
To be plain, it's not the disloyalty of the "tumbo brigade" that I loathe but their incompetence. That they would enter a pact without zoning out ODM from their turf. How do you support ODM for PORK while they field competitors in your base?? I would lock the entire Western, TZ, and part Nairobi for ANC as a condition to back Railonzo. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are POLITICAL BIMBOS that do not deserve any power.
I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
Assuming you believe Babu
Babu claims according to the ‘authentic results’ he won with 8.3 and Uhunye had 7.8
Means Losing any of the existing principal would chew into this narrow lead,and he would lose. Babu ain’t stupid and he knows he can’t storm their bases and walk away with everything,at least not yet. His best shot is formenting real discord in their bases. Already we have some MPs from Bungoma who are loudly wondering why Weta skipped. Next thing is to replace them. Can be done in under 4yrs.
How much he wins with? I have no way of knowing. I am not even sure that is knowable at this point.
Did he win? This I feel he did with a high degree of confidence.
On that basis, I feel it doesn't matter if he wins or not, the outcome was always going to be rejected. That is partly why I am not thrilled by ethnic arithmetic and detailed analysis of what IMO is a non-fact.
For that reason too, Raila should not worry if the only support he is left with is his village in Bondo, when he makes the suggested move. I think MDVD, Weta and Kalonzo should be encouraged and hounded to move to Jubilee.
I think that when such clarity is established, Raila has a decent chance of getting countrywide support outside of GEMA and Kalenjin land. He has a fight on his hands. These guys are just deadweight at best.
Kenya is no country for lone rangers and I thought you should be the last person to fantasize about that.
Sorry for interrupting your dreams
The real delusion is the notion that there is some legitimate process in which a President can be elected. When you are deluded like that, you want to discuss alliances, tribal arithmetic etc as if it matters. It doesn't.
For a HIV denier, facts don’t matter I get
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The trouble with the IEBC server is we cannot see or question it. Other than speculate the contents and reasons for the alleged defiance. Just like the rigging evidence that NASA failed to adduce despite an elaborate agent and equipped monitor network. These are just speculations not facts we can debate.
If you were an independent analyst what would you read from the downstream ballot? To draw a conclusion about the presidency.
Indeed we cannot see it. But it’s no longer a mystery why. I haven’t had a chance to look at those ballots in detail.
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In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html)
To be plain, it's not the disloyalty of the "tumbo brigade" that I loathe but their incompetence. That they would enter a pact without zoning out ODM from their turf. How do you support ODM for PORK while they field competitors in your base?? I would lock the entire Western, TZ, and part Nairobi for ANC as a condition to back Railonzo. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are POLITICAL BIMBOS that do not deserve any power.
I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
Assuming you believe Babu
Babu claims according to the ‘authentic results’ he won with 8.3 and Uhunye had 7.8
Means Losing any of the existing principal would chew into this narrow lead,and he would lose. Babu ain’t stupid and he knows he can’t storm their bases and walk away with everything,at least not yet. His best shot is formenting real discord in their bases. Already we have some MPs from Bungoma who are loudly wondering why Weta skipped. Next thing is to replace them. Can be done in under 4yrs.
How much he wins with? I have no way of knowing. I am not even sure that is knowable at this point.
Did he win? This I feel he did with a high degree of confidence.
On that basis, I feel it doesn't matter if he wins or not, the outcome was always going to be rejected. That is partly why I am not thrilled by ethnic arithmetic and detailed analysis of what IMO is a non-fact.
For that reason too, Raila should not worry if the only support he is left with is his village in Bondo, when he makes the suggested move. I think MDVD, Weta and Kalonzo should be encouraged and hounded to move to Jubilee.
I think that when such clarity is established, Raila has a decent chance of getting countrywide support outside of GEMA and Kalenjin land. He has a fight on his hands. These guys are just deadweight at best.
Kenya is no country for lone rangers and I thought you should be the last person to fantasize about that.
Sorry for interrupting your dreams
The real delusion is the notion that there is some legitimate process in which a President can be elected. When you are deluded like that, you want to discuss alliances, tribal arithmetic etc as if it matters. It doesn't.
For a HIV denier, facts don’t matter I get
Says the evolution denying purveyor of meathead theories of nephilim. Very cute.
-
In case there was any doubt. The man might not even have enough support to clinch Vihiga governorship. But he wants to try his chances in 2022. And he thinks the jubilant will agree to reform the electoral system if you just talk to him.
The tumbocrat brigade was always going to be NASA’s Achilles. They simply lack the discipline and patience to do some work. To make a sacrifice. They have never had to do these things.
National Super Alliance principal Musalia Mudavadi now wants the coalition to focus on how to win the 2022 elections, rather than pushing for a fresh presidential contest.
The comments by the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader are different from Nasa leader Raila Odinga’s, who wants a fresh contest by August 2018.
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html)
To be plain, it's not the disloyalty of the "tumbo brigade" that I loathe but their incompetence. That they would enter a pact without zoning out ODM from their turf. How do you support ODM for PORK while they field competitors in your base?? I would lock the entire Western, TZ, and part Nairobi for ANC as a condition to back Railonzo. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are POLITICAL BIMBOS that do not deserve any power.
I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable. I don't think they are disloyal at all. They are just mercenaries. Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller. They are not after actual electoral returns. They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.
Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people. The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%. Neither does coast. I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.
Assuming you believe Babu
Babu claims according to the ‘authentic results’ he won with 8.3 and Uhunye had 7.8
Means Losing any of the existing principal would chew into this narrow lead,and he would lose. Babu ain’t stupid and he knows he can’t storm their bases and walk away with everything,at least not yet. His best shot is formenting real discord in their bases. Already we have some MPs from Bungoma who are loudly wondering why Weta skipped. Next thing is to replace them. Can be done in under 4yrs.
How much he wins with? I have no way of knowing. I am not even sure that is knowable at this point.
Did he win? This I feel he did with a high degree of confidence.
On that basis, I feel it doesn't matter if he wins or not, the outcome was always going to be rejected. That is partly why I am not thrilled by ethnic arithmetic and detailed analysis of what IMO is a non-fact.
For that reason too, Raila should not worry if the only support he is left with is his village in Bondo, when he makes the suggested move. I think MDVD, Weta and Kalonzo should be encouraged and hounded to move to Jubilee.
I think that when such clarity is established, Raila has a decent chance of getting countrywide support outside of GEMA and Kalenjin land. He has a fight on his hands. These guys are just deadweight at best.
Kenya is no country for lone rangers and I thought you should be the last person to fantasize about that.
Sorry for interrupting your dreams
The real delusion is the notion that there is some legitimate process in which a President can be elected. When you are deluded like that, you want to discuss alliances, tribal arithmetic etc as if it matters. It doesn't.
For a HIV denier, facts don’t matter I get
Says the evolution denying purveyor of meathead theories of nephilim. Very cute.
None of those shitty deniers accept taking HIV shots
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This was a real and Sober Robina, whatever happened to her ?
I am not actually spewing propaganda here - am being objective. ODM at its peak in 2007 had 50% of parliament; this shrunk to 30% in 2013. It now has 20%? What's the trajectory? Same for governors. We can ignore the contested PORK vote for this argument.
Look at Kisii, Maasai, Turkana, Coast, Somali/NEP - ODM has lost support. NEP it's literally a rout. It's not just the presidency or executive power that ODM has lost.
Western - ODM's power is aided by Mudavadi and Wetang’ula's ineptitude as leaders. Bukusu is gone - with those 4 Jubilee MPs in Bungoma - and the goodies the Wamalwas, Lusakas, Washialis have got. The Luhya trajectory is very bad for ODM. I agree Raila would retain half Vihiga and Kakamega without Mudavadi. Very comforting.
Now, all of this support ODM has lost has gone to Jubilee - specifically to William Ruto. Like Pundit says there is no merited popularity Raila ever enjoyed by patriotics or heroics - just good old chess moves by the NDP trojan horse. The dust has since settled and he has 20% - and this overt apparency will occur if he pisses on the MOU. NASA has 36% of parliament :ODM 20%, Wiper 8%, ANC 4%, FordK 3%. These numbers will only dwindle.
So you can go ahead and do that NRM ritual - you can puff your chest and declare "the people are with Baba" - and claim you have a timeless strategy to prove it. That's okay but the reality disagrees. This is nipate and you won't get away with it. Even if MOON Ki is awol.
Mr Odinga has a final lapsing window to play kingmaker - for his knights Kalonzo and Mudavadi - before the game is done.
What has been milked to death is that Raila will be isolated and will only remain with luo Nyanza. There is more merit to the argument that Ruto will be isolated than that Raila will. Raila would beat Mdvd with more votes now in western than he did in 2013. Those thinking that this is a luo movement are out of touch and not even worth responding to.