MDVDs True Colors Emerge

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

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https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html

[RV Pundit]

NASA is kaput as long as Raila insist he must ran again in 2022. MaDVD has been out in the cold for long. He need to re-think his position - accept small job from Jubilee and get back his grove somehow. He has about 10mps - he should flock those for a cabinet position in Jubilee or something close to that. Wetangula position is complicated because half Bukusu are already in Jubilee - so it likely he stick with NASA --where has a job as Minority Leader anyway. Kalonzo - I don't know what he'll do - he is btw a rock and hard place.

[Nefertiti]

These democrats need to do the civilized thing and retire. They have played their patriotic and civic duty. There is no quandary - pave the way for Joho, Orengo, Mutua, Eugene, Lusaka, etc. The "radical youth" Kichwa touts need their chance at power.

NASA is kaput as long as Raila insist he must ran again in 2022. MaDVD has been out in the cold for long. He need to re-think his position - accept small job from Jubilee and get back his grove somehow. He has about 10mps - he should flock those for a cabinet position in Jubilee or something close to that. Wetangula position is complicated because half Bukusu are already in Jubilee - so it likely he stick with NASA --where has a job as Minority Leader anyway. Kalonzo - I don't know what he'll do - he is btw a rock and hard place.

[vooke]

https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html

They have been chasing Babu coattails forever and fatigue is setting in.

Even Joho will weary at some point

[Kichwa]

w
I think MDVD has resigned to the reality.  Kalonzo still think he can do a katikati  but its clear that the no-show at swearing in did him in.  Raila is going to hang around as ayatollah because the young-guns still need him.  Otherwise right now the competition among the youth is on and they are going to compete by being as radical and as non-compromising as possible.  Miguna has set the bar very high but I think after they watched Kalonzo, Weta and Mdvd, knocked out by one blow for being weak, nobody is even going to talk about compromising unless its about electoral justice and reforming the constitution.  I can tell you that unless serious changes are made for electoral justice, a huge chunk of this country will not go into the elections and if Ruto is declared president with half the country not voting then secession will happen. There is no way the opposition will stay in a country where we did not even participate in the election of the president.  This time the boycott will affect the civic, the parliamentary, the gubernatorial and the presidency. There will be a constitutional crisis of monumental propositions.

These democrats need to do the civilized thing and retire. They have played their patriotic and civic duty. There is no quandary - pave the way for Joho, Orengo, Mutua, Eugene, Lusaka, etc. The "radical youth" Kichwa touts need their chance at power.

NASA is kaput as long as Raila insist he must ran again in 2022. MaDVD has been out in the cold for long. He need to re-think his position - accept small job from Jubilee and get back his grove somehow. He has about 10mps - he should flock those for a cabinet position in Jubilee or something close to that. Wetangula position is complicated because half Bukusu are already in Jubilee - so it likely he stick with NASA --where has a job as Minority Leader anyway. Kalonzo - I don't know what he'll do - he is btw a rock and hard place.

[Nefertiti]

The opposition's unity will depend on Raila's respect for the MOU to support others - which he already violated in 2013. Committing treason is not part of the MOU. You and ODM are welcome to execute that sleight of hand but say bye bye to Wiper support.

w
I think MDVD has resigned to the reality.  Kalonzo still think he can do a katikati  but its clear that the no-show at swearing in did him in.  Raila is going to hang around as ayatollah because the young-guns still need him.  Otherwise right now the competition among the youth is on and they are going to compete by being as radical and as non-compromising as possible.  Miguna has set the bar very high but I think after they watched Kalonzo, Weta and Mdvd, knocked out by one blow for being weak, nobody is even going to talk about compromising unless its about electoral justice and reforming the constitution.  I can tell you that unless serious changes are made for electoral justice, a huge chunk of this country will not go into the elections and if Ruto is declared president with half the country not voting then secession will happen. There is no way the opposition will stay in a country where we did not even participate in the election of the president.  This time the boycott will affect the civic, the parliamentary, the gubernatorial and the presidency. There will be a constitutional crisis of monumental propositions.

These democrats need to do the civilized thing and retire. They have played their patriotic and civic duty. There is no quandary - pave the way for Joho, Orengo, Mutua, Eugene, Lusaka, etc. The "radical youth" Kichwa touts need their chance at power.

NASA is kaput as long as Raila insist he must ran again in 2022. MaDVD has been out in the cold for long. He need to re-think his position - accept small job from Jubilee and get back his grove somehow. He has about 10mps - he should flock those for a cabinet position in Jubilee or something close to that. Wetangula position is complicated because half Bukusu are already in Jubilee - so it likely he stick with NASA --where has a job as Minority Leader anyway. Kalonzo - I don't know what he'll do - he is btw a rock and hard place.

[Nefertiti]

https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html

[RV Pundit]

Bottomline: All these guys (maDVD/Kalonzo) ARE BIG FOOLS WHO imagine Raila is ready to hand over power. Raila & his luo cabal worse than Kibaki. He doesn't think whatever he commit to do - even at personal level - is worth fulfilling.I mean they can ask Ford-Kenya (before Wetangula impostor) crew of Wamalwa-Kituyi-Mukhia. Ruto tasted the same thing but quickly ran out of fire. Now Kalonzo been "enjoyed" for a decade - thankfully Raila never got power in that decade - otherwise it would have been as bitter as Ruto tasted. Raila and his Luo cabal would have hounded them as soon as they were in statehouse.

Then you've got people claiming Mt Kenya/GEMA are worse? Like really? How comes Ruto has enjoyed blissful 6 yrs so far with Mt Kenya mafia? How come Moi became VP for 12yrs and PORK?

The worse I tell you are Odinga's Luos - who feel entitled to the leadership of Kenya and will use all means to ran roughshod over other kenyans. Thank goodness it's never happened.

Now MaDVD and Kalonzo and Wetangula if they had the some little brains in their head would already been running for the hill. Combined NASA cannot beat Jubilee. So it really waste of time to go for third time in 2022.

Combine Kalonzo+MaDVD+Wetangula - they can pull no 2 or 3 in 2022 - and Ruto may not contain fallout over running mate & may fail to get 50% outright. If it comes to that - these guys will have leverage to join GoK.

Now they've dilly-dallied and UhuRuto have split the animal - there is nothing left - few CAS, PS and Ambassadorial positions.

If they follow Raila and Kichwa Mbaya ideas - they will go to 2022 - for another beating where they may even withdraw again - making Ruto win with 99% & 290Mps in parliament. If you boycot and some candidate stand & get 1 vote - they win.
 

[Nefertiti]

Pundit something tells me Kalonzo has gone soft on Jubilee - after the ODM brigade openly went gung-ho on him ala 2022 - some even calling him watermelon. With the Mutua complication this 5yrs are his last shot at some GoK cake.

[Kichwa]

Your diatribe against the luo is not backed by evidence.  Odinga toshad Jomo and Raila toshad Kibaki.  Raila is even blamed for NARA which kept Kibaki in power.  Kalenjins have  supported Raila and  Uhuru and so have the other tribes but Kikuyus have supported no one and yet you go on and on about luos who have never been in power.  You really must think everybody else is an idiot. Weta and MDVD did this to themselves and they only have themselves to blame. They sold out to Ruto but he will never get the Luhyia Nation to make up for the huge chunk of GEMA that he has already lost.   Also, there will be no electoral political business in this country as usual until electoral reforms are made. You can take that to the bank.  We will boycott elections at all levels and this time there will be no president of Kenya sworn in after only 25% of the country has voted.  This time if they try that it will not work because there will be a parallel swearing in on the same day of opposition president followed by secession. We are not playing this time around.

Bottomline: All these guys (maDVD/Kalonzo) ARE BIG FOOLS WHO imagine Raila is ready to hand over power. Raila & his luo cabal worse than Kibaki. He doesn't think whatever he commit to do - even at personal level - is worth fulfilling.I mean they can ask Ford-Kenya (before Wetangula impostor) crew of Wamalwa-Kituyi-Mukhia. Ruto tasted the same thing but quickly ran out of fire. Now Kalonzo been "enjoyed" for a decade - thankfully Raila never got power in that decade - otherwise it would have been as bitter as Ruto tasted. Raila and his Luo cabal would have hounded them as soon as they were in statehouse.

Then you've got people claiming Mt Kenya/GEMA are worse? Like really? How comes Ruto has enjoyed blissful 6 yrs so far with Mt Kenya mafia? How come Moi became VP for 12yrs and PORK?

The worse I tell you are Odinga's Luos - who feel entitled to the leadership of Kenya and will use all means to ran roughshod over other kenyans. Thank goodness it's never happened.

Now MaDVD and Kalonzo and Wetangula if they had the some little brains in their head would already been running for the hill. Combined NASA cannot beat Jubilee. So it really waste of time to go for third time in 2022.

Combine Kalonzo+MaDVD+Wetangula - they can pull no 2 or 3 in 2022 - and Ruto may not contain fallout over running mate & may fail to get 50% outright. If it comes to that - these guys will have leverage to join GoK.

Now they've dilly-dallied and UhuRuto have split the animal - there is nothing left - few CAS, PS and Ambassadorial positions.

If they follow Raila and Kichwa Mbaya ideas - they will go to 2022 - for another beating where they may even withdraw again - making Ruto win with 99% & 290Mps in parliament. If you boycot and some candidate stand & get 1 vote - they win.
 

[Nefertiti]

The question is if President Raila would co-rule smoothly with a DPORK or PM? In the UhuRuto mold. The Kijana Wamalwa and Ruto experiences do not inspire trust. Nor do NARC and NARA.

The tried and tested kingmaker resists his curse fiercely. In lieu he dedigns a kingmaker-in-chief post (PM) that noone but he is keen on.

[RV Pundit]

Thanks for the summary. It appears the whole swearing in was means to an end - Raila gets away with binding MOU with poor Kalonzo & maDVD yet again.

The question is if President Raila would co-rule smoothly with a DPORK or PM? In the UhuRuto mold. The Kijana Wamalwa and Ruto experiences do not inspire trust. Nor do NARC and NARA.

The tried and tested kingmaker resists his curse fiercely. In lieu he dedigns a kingmaker-in-chief post (PM) that noone but he is keen on.

[Kichwa]

If you remove ideology and principles from this analysis then it becomes too simplistic analysis just to buttress your already negative attitude towards Raila. Raila remains relevant in politics today because he kept true to his principles when others could not and decided to sell out. That is not Raila's problem. If Raila sold his soul, he would have been president a long time ago. Its better he not be president than to sell his soul.

Thanks for the summary. It appears the whole swearing in was means to an end - Raila gets away with binding MOU with poor Kalonzo & maDVD yet again.

The question is if President Raila would co-rule smoothly with a DPORK or PM? In the UhuRuto mold. The Kijana Wamalwa and Ruto experiences do not inspire trust. Nor do NARC and NARA.

The tried and tested kingmaker resists his curse fiercely. In lieu he dedigns a kingmaker-in-chief post (PM) that noone but he is keen on.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Focus-on-2022-election-Musalia-Mudavadi-tells-Nasa/1064-4315258-7vulcuz/index.html

I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable.  I don't think they are disloyal at all.  They are just mercenaries.  Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller.  They are not after actual electoral returns.  They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.

Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people.  The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%.  Neither does coast.  I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.

[Nefertiti]

I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable.  I don't think they are disloyal at all.  They are just mercenaries.  Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller.  They are not after actual electoral returns.  They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.

Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people.  The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%.  Neither does coast.  I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.

Raila does not have majority support - let alone 100% - outside of Luo Nyanza without the tribal principals. Not the Luhya, the Kisii or even the Mijikenda. Without Nanok for instance the Turkana would be a problem. Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.

The best thing to do is to genuinely embrace the kingmaker role - and settle for 50% of the cabinet and executive jobs -
through foolproof MOU with Kalonzo and Mudavadi. For now the transparent trick where he gets to back a ceremonial D/PORK - and become executive PM - is DOA. Obsession with being called Mheshimiwa Rais is egoistic and self defeating. Just get the House Speaker and Majority Leader as guarantee.

[RV Pundit]

It is a sick joke that Raila has the majority on his own merit or based on some issues or principles. Raila inherited KANU - which became LDP and later ODM. That is what he's been riding on. We know ODM has been diminishing every year - of course Kichwa and his lankey terminator will ignore that & call it rigging - but as we speak ODM as party got 60mps - or about 18-20% of national assembly - that is true reflection of what Raila is worth now.

Raila does not have majority support - let alone 100% - outside of Luo Nyanza without the tribal principals. Not the Luhya, the Kisii or even the Mijikenda. Without Nanok for instance the Turkana would be a problem. Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.

The best thing to do is to genuinely embrace the kingmaker role - and settle for 50% of the cabinet and executive jobs -
through foolproof MOU with Kalonzo and Mudavadi. For now the transparent trick where he gets to back a ceremonial D/PORK - and become executive PM - is DOA. Obsession with being called Mheshimiwa Rais is egoistic and self defeating. Just get the House Speaker and Majority Leader as guarantee.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It is a sick joke that Raila has the majority on his own merit or based on some issues or principles. Raila inherited KANU - which became LDP and later ODM. That is what he's been riding on. We know ODM has been diminishing every year - of course Kichwa and his lankey terminator will ignore that & call it rigging - but as we speak ODM as party got 60mps - or about 18-20% of national assembly - that is true reflection of what Raila is worth now.

Raila does not have majority support - let alone 100% - outside of Luo Nyanza without the tribal principals. Not the Luhya, the Kisii or even the Mijikenda. Without Nanok for instance the Turkana would be a problem. Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.

The best thing to do is to genuinely embrace the kingmaker role - and settle for 50% of the cabinet and executive jobs -
through foolproof MOU with Kalonzo and Mudavadi. For now the transparent trick where he gets to back a ceremonial D/PORK - and become executive PM - is DOA. Obsession with being called Mheshimiwa Rais is egoistic and self defeating. Just get the House Speaker and Majority Leader as guarantee.

The rigging conclusion is because of IEBC's actions August 8th and subsequent defiance of court orders.  I can provide links if you want.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I guess they are both "incompetent" and unreliable.  I don't think they are disloyal at all.  They are just mercenaries.  Zoning out is too much work when you are looking for something smaller.  They are not after actual electoral returns.  They thrive on extortion from the tensions that exist between Raila and the ruling mafia.

Raila could do the brave thing and dump the whole NASA principals(tribal template) and go to directly to the people.  The Gusii don't have a principal, and yet they are behind him 100%.  Neither does coast.  I think that template is actually a source of division within the movement rather than strength.

Raila does not have majority support - let alone 100% - outside of Luo Nyanza without the tribal principals. Not the Luhya, the Kisii or even the Mijikenda. Without Nanok for instance the Turkana would be a problem. Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.

The best thing to do is to genuinely embrace the kingmaker role - and settle for 50% of the cabinet and executive jobs -
through foolproof MOU with Kalonzo and Mudavadi. For now the transparent trick where he gets to back a ceremonial D/PORK - and become executive PM - is DOA. Obsession with being called Mheshimiwa Rais is egoistic and self defeating. Just get the House Speaker and Majority Leader as guarantee.

It's just a figure of speech.  No he doesn't have 100% support from any community, including Luo Nyanza.

[RV Pundit]

The link I want to show you instead is that in rigged 2013- Raila ODM party had 96mps - and now he has 62mps - I can help you with percentage - but just know at it apex ODM had nearly 50% of parliament in 2007 and 2013 it went down to 33% and in 2017 it gone to 23% and you can guess in 2022 it will be about 13% - Luo Nyanza. Just about where Raila was in NDP in 1997. I have not seen this kind of full circle before in kenya politics. People start small and end up as national players like Raila/Moi/Kenyattas/Kibakis or stagnated like Kalonzo & then quit...but you don't see this kind of longevity like Raila where someone is so convinced of his ppoularity while evidence out there...say NOT ANYMORE.

Raila will definitely ran in 2022 and perform even worse than 2017! Right now Raila and his groupies have convinced themselves that MaDVD/Kalonzo/Weta will not dent their votes....but trust me come 2022...Raila will struggle to win an MP outside Luo Nyanza and it's diaspora.In 2017 - Raila got zero MP in Gusii region I think  . He got zero Mp in entire Bukusu land I think. Out of 11mps in Kakamega - I think he got only two.

What gonna happen - Kalonzo and Mutua will fight for Kamba vote - MaDVD/Weta will square in western - else where Jubilee will take its picking because Ruto is willing to spend the dime & time. Raila will as always depend on his brand of populism but he long hit marginal return.

Raila biggest supporter outside Luo Nyanza  is Joho - who depend on Luo-Luhya diaspora votes in Mombasa to stay afloat.

The rigging conclusion is because of IEBC's actions August 8th and subsequent defiance of court orders.  I can provide links if you want.

[RV Pundit]

Joho is not mijikenda. He is a minority who depend on mijikenda votes as well Luo-Luhya diaspora votes in Mombasa to stay afloat. I think if Ruto wins Amason Kingi - and add to Mvurya & brigade - then he can easily prize away the coast from Raila.

Only the Mijikenda are amenable due to the Jomo land history. And they too are dicy if you consider Mvurya.