Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nefertiti on August 20, 2020, 10:28:17 PM
-
Ruto’s running mate headache as allies maintain a low profile
https://www.nation.co.ke/kenya/news/politics/ruto-ready-for-poll-but-where-is-mate-1921470
DP Ruto was initially said to be keen on a running mate from the Mount Kenya region or Western, but his targets have since decamped, lost national influence or fallen out of favour.
Analysts, however, think Mr Kiunjuri would not be of much help to the DP if President Kenyatta—who has all but confirmed he might renege on his promise to back the DP for the top job in 2022—stamps his authority.
Political analyst Herman Manyora says the DP remains in a state of quagmire as political bigwigs are allied to President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga’s Handshake team.
“Any association with Ruto comes at a high cost. The biggest challenge he has is the pariah status he’s being pushed into. The system is making it very difficult for people to want to work with him,” Prof Manyora says.
He argues that the DP is also in a dilemma as the vote-rich Mount Kenya region is also making demands for the running mate position “despite their vote not being guaranteed because of the President Kenyatta factor.”
-
(https://www.nation.co.ke/resource/image/1921472/landscape_ratio16x9/1160/652/c23b772fbba1ad44335de741244a38a/fw/ruto.jpg)
DEADBEAT: Deputy President William Ruto
-
Rumors of Ruto demise are greatly exaggerated, he will be deputize for Raila. He is a smart chap
-
Ruto’s running mate headache as allies maintain a low profile
https://www.nation.co.ke/kenya/news/politics/ruto-ready-for-poll-but-where-is-mate-1921470
DP Ruto was initially said to be keen on a running mate from the Mount Kenya region or Western, but his targets have since decamped, lost national influence or fallen out of favour.
Analysts, however, think Mr Kiunjuri would not be of much help to the DP if President Kenyatta—who has all but confirmed he might renege on his promise to back the DP for the top job in 2022—stamps his authority.
Political analyst Herman Manyora says the DP remains in a state of quagmire as political bigwigs are allied to President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga’s Handshake team.
“Any association with Ruto comes at a high cost. The biggest challenge he has is the pariah status he’s being pushed into. The system is making it very difficult for people to want to work with him,” Prof Manyora says.
He argues that the DP is also in a dilemma as the vote-rich Mount Kenya region is also making demands for the running mate position “despite their vote not being guaranteed because of the President Kenyatta factor.”
President Moi facor was detrimental to Uhuru in 2002 , President Kibaki factor was detrimental to Mudavadi in 2013 .
The so called fall out between Uhuru and Ruto has been a blessing in disguise for Ruto - If it wasnt it for that all the illls caused by Uhuru would be blamed on him .
Secondly these so called Political Analysts are hired mercenaries disguising as intellectuals . Who doesnt know Manyora has been bidding for Raila since 2007 albeit with Nil success .
-
Rumors of Ruto demise are greatly exaggerated, he will be deputize for Raila. He is a smart chap
If he refused to do that when he was offered the same position as Uhuru had offered him in 2013 , what makes you think he will go for that 10 years later . Further The constitution does not allow for him to Run another term as a deputy .
-
The opinion polls show Ruto clear favourite but now our reality is distorted.Losers like Gideon,PK and even Raila who is now glorified Lou leader back to factory settings are winners.There are matiangis who are hoping to jump straight
into PORK from civil service. The idea is Uhuru will rig them in...hopeless uhuru that can't even win formulae debate...his first battle without Ruto helping hand After them are hopeless madvd and poor kaloi.Ruto will pick Mwangi Kiunjuri and the rest are details
-
The opinion polls show Ruto clear favourite but now our reality is distorted.Losers like Gideon,PK and even Raila who is now glorified Lou leader back to factory settings are winners.There are matiangis who are hoping to jump straight
into PORK from civil service. The idea is Uhuru will rig them in...hopeless uhuru that can't even win formulae debate...his first battle without Ruto helping hand After them are hopeless madvd and poor kaloi. Ruto will pick Mwangi Kiunjuri and the rest are details
That is a losing ticket.
-
Mzito Ruto is sleep walking to PORK, unlike, Gideon, kalonzo, raira, mudavadi, oparanya, wetangula, matiangi, joho etc depending on uhuru to endorse them, how stupid is this, yaani wanaume kumi kumtegemea mwanaume mmoja ili hawatosheleze, what a bunch of sissies. It even sounds gay. After corona mega scandal is done, people will see mzito Ruto as saviour.
-
Mzito Ruto is sleep walking to PORK, unlike, Gideon, kalonzo, raira, mudavadi, oparanya, wetangula, matiangi, joho etc depending on uhuru to endorse them, how stupid is this, yaani wanaume kumi kumtegemea mwanaume mmoja ili hawatosheleze, what a bunch of sissies. It even sounds gay. After corona mega scandal is done, people will see mzito Ruto as saviour.
All the politicians youve mentioned are depending on BBI to create posts so that they can align themselves accordingly either on Railas side or Rutos side. They hope by clinnging on Uhuru BBI will happen by end of the year and the additional post of Prime Minister , Deputy Prime Minister and Regional Governors /Ministers can be created and with that gobble for the seats .
One thing they have not factored in is that they might actually lose the referendum and the referendum might be pushed to be held together with 2022 elections .
-
There is no other legit GEMA candidate who can deputize Ruto. MK tick many boxes.
That is a losing ticket.
-
Mzito Ruto is sleep walking to PORK, unlike, Gideon, kalonzo, raira, mudavadi, oparanya, wetangula, matiangi, joho etc depending on uhuru to endorse them, how stupid is this, yaani wanaume kumi kumtegemea mwanaume mmoja ili hawatosheleze, what a bunch of sissies. It even sounds gay. After corona mega scandal is done, people will see mzito Ruto as saviour.
How many freeloaders are hanging on Mobutu coattails? Khalwale, Omar Hassan, Muthama - the "think tank" is a collection of losers. Delusional Muthama claims to have chokehold on Kamba. Khalwale was clobbered 70-20 by Oparanya but will deliver Luhya. Omar is expected to deliver Coast when he was distant 3rd for Mombasa governor :o
-
I guess you can't see beyond your nose as usual. Ala revenue formula.
The opinion polls show Ruto clear favourite but now our reality is distorted.Losers like Gideon,PK and even Raila who is now glorified Lou leader back to factory settings are winners.There are matiangis who are hoping to jump straight
into PORK from civil service. The idea is Uhuru will rig them in...hopeless uhuru that can't even win formulae debate...his first battle without Ruto helping hand After them are hopeless madvd and poor kaloi.Ruto will pick Mwangi Kiunjuri and the rest are details
-
Ruto’s running mate headache as allies maintain a low profile
https://www.nation.co.ke/kenya/news/politics/ruto-ready-for-poll-but-where-is-mate-1921470
DP Ruto was initially said to be keen on a running mate from the Mount Kenya region or Western, but his targets have since decamped, lost national influence or fallen out of favour.
Analysts, however, think Mr Kiunjuri would not be of much help to the DP if President Kenyatta—who has all but confirmed he might renege on his promise to back the DP for the top job in 2022—stamps his authority.
Political analyst Herman Manyora says the DP remains in a state of quagmire as political bigwigs are allied to President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga’s Handshake team.
“Any association with Ruto comes at a high cost. The biggest challenge he has is the pariah status he’s being pushed into. The system is making it very difficult for people to want to work with him,” Prof Manyora says.
He argues that the DP is also in a dilemma as the vote-rich Mount Kenya region is also making demands for the running mate position “despite their vote not being guaranteed because of the President Kenyatta factor.”
President Moi facor was detrimental to Uhuru in 2002 , President Kibaki factor was detrimental to Mudavadi in 2013 .
The so called fall out between Uhuru and Ruto has been a blessing in disguise for Ruto - If it wasnt it for that all the illls caused by Uhuru would be blamed on him .
Secondly these so called Political Analysts are hired mercenaries disguising as intellectuals . Who doesnt know Manyora has been bidding for Raila since 2007 albeit with Nil success .
Mobutu backed Uhuru in 2002 - Raila in 2007 - flopped both times. Noone has any magic pill circumstances and strategy matter more. 60 years Uhuru is not senile like Moi and Kibaki. Funny you raise "hiring" of mercenaries - which is Mobutu's primary modus operandi. If Mobutu was genuinely popular he wouldn't need to pay off folks to back him. It is why they vaporize at his hour of need as we saw in parliament.
-
Yes - there are no other legit GEMA candidates on Ruto's side.
There is no other legit GEMA candidate who can deputize Ruto. MK tick many boxes.
That is a losing ticket.
-
Pundit and Tangatangarites - PK has emerged as Uhuru GEMA successor. It clear as broad daylight
https://standardmedia.co.ke/the-standard-insider/article/2001383325/power-merchants-in-2022-succession
(https://cdn.standardmedia.co.ke/images/thursday/ahodut90ovw6gr5f3ecb6e92888.jpg)
-
These are new signings. The old players are entrenched. Ruto start with near clean sweap of rift valley and pastoral kenya. That is already a huge head-start. He is fighting for his political life in GEMA and so far he still very popular on the ground. He he support in all corners of kenya. Only Raila use to boast of that.
What next? The BBI crew - will they unite? Under who? Kalonzo and Raila don't see eye to eye. GEma and Raila don't jell. Gideon is hoping against hope. maDVD confused as ever
The small potatos like PK and Matiangi are hoping Uhuru will issues Executive Order No Last to make them president :) We haven't gone to jokers like Mutua, Makueni Prof, and Wa-riria.
Now here comes Ruto the clear favourite already with running mate.
How many freeloaders are hanging on Mobutu coattails? Khalwale, Omar Hassan, Muthama - the "think tank" is a collection of losers. Delusional Muthama claims to have chokehold on Kamba. Khalwale was clobbered 70-20 by Oparanya but will deliver Luhya. Omar is expected to deliver Coast when he was distant 3rd for Mombasa governor :o
-
If wishes were horses - all beggars would ride that grand glittery thoroughbred stallion. Complete with armored chariot. Reality is what you saw in parliament as they hanged Tharaka dwarf. 2/3 is no joke. This one-man formula is anti-Ruto wedge - that the BASIS - all the circus is to how Uhuru is trying as Ruto vehemently oppose him.
These are new signings. The old players are entrenched. Ruto start with near clean sweap of rift valley and pastoral kenya. That is already a huge head-start. He is fighting for his political life in GEMA and so far he still very popular on the ground. He he support in all corners of kenya. Only Raila use to boast of that.
What next? The BBI crew - will they unite? Under who? Kalonzo and Raila don't see eye to eye. GEma and Raila don't jell. Gideon is hoping against hope. maDVD confused as ever
The small potatos like PK and Matiangi are hoping Uhuru will issues Executive Order No Last to make them president :) We haven't gone to jokers like Mutua, Makueni Prof, and Wa-riria.
Now here comes Ruto the clear favourite already with running mate.
How many freeloaders are hanging on Mobutu coattails? Khalwale, Omar Hassan, Muthama - the "think tank" is a collection of losers. Delusional Muthama claims to have chokehold on Kamba. Khalwale was clobbered 70-20 by Oparanya but will deliver Luhya. Omar is expected to deliver Coast when he was distant 3rd for Mombasa governor :o
-
Ruto has been consistent - win win - Raila has been 50-50. Uhuru obviously tyring to drive gema to the edge. Gema have refused to be driven to the edge for 3yrs now. Why would they accept it now. Gema can see it from far. They know 10yrs ago...they were hunted all over Kenya like straw dogs..they are not ready for a repeat - and for what benefit. They are in win-win despite the protestation.
And this is where ruto normally wins..he has a stand, he makes a decision and he stick with it. Moi was like that. Nobody like a Kalonzo or now a Raila windsock.
Nobody want to back somebody flowing with the wind. Ruto has to be careful with GEMA - it's gotta be tough love. You cannot afford to bend backwards like Kalonzo. You have to provide leadership. And this is win-win. GEMA are so fearful of return to 41-1 they will compromise if need be.
If wishes were horses - all beggars would ride that grand glittery thoroughbred stallion. Complete with armored chariot. Reality is what you saw in parliament as they hanged Tharaka dwarf. 2/3 is no joke. This one-man formula is anti-Ruto wedge - that the BASIS - all the circus is to how Uhuru is trying as Ruto vehemently oppose him.
-
If wishes were horses - all beggars would ride that grand glittery thoroughbred stallion. Complete with armored chariot. Reality is what you saw in parliament as they hanged Tharaka dwarf. 2/3 is no joke. This one-man formula is anti-Ruto wedge - that the BASIS - all the circus is to how Uhuru is trying as Ruto vehemently oppose him.
These are new signings. The old players are entrenched. Ruto start with near clean sweap of rift valley and pastoral kenya. That is already a huge head-start. He is fighting for his political life in GEMA and so far he still very popular on the ground. He he support in all corners of kenya. Only Raila use to boast of that.
What next? The BBI crew - will they unite? Under who? Kalonzo and Raila don't see eye to eye. GEma and Raila don't jell. Gideon is hoping against hope. maDVD confused as ever
The small potatos like PK and Matiangi are hoping Uhuru will issues Executive Order No Last to make them president :) We haven't gone to jokers like Mutua, Makueni Prof, and Wa-riria.
Now here comes Ruto the clear favourite already with running mate.
How many freeloaders are hanging on Mobutu coattails? Khalwale, Omar Hassan, Muthama - the "think tank" is a collection of losers. Delusional Muthama claims to have chokehold on Kamba. Khalwale was clobbered 70-20 by Oparanya but will deliver Luhya. Omar is expected to deliver Coast when he was distant 3rd for Mombasa governor :o
Roby , what you fail to point out that the following factors made the senators vote the way they did .
First is the nominated senators from Jubilee were threatened to be thrown out of parliament if they went against Murathe /Njee Muturi/ wishes
Jubilee elected senators were threatened to be de-whipped from senate committees where they earn perks and allowances essentially their money makers if you also add favors and corrupt money .
ODM senators want to destroy Jubilee and if they get an opportunity they are ready to utilize it .
Having said that , there is a big difference between party politics , senate politics and national politics . Party and senate politics is not necessarily a reflection of national politics , 90% of the elected senators wont make it back to senate. Majority of the senators didnt make it to senate by virtue of being Kingpins who can sway their regions to vote one way or the other . They made it by belonging to the right party at the right time . In 2013 it was either TNA/URP and in 2017 it was Jubilee , in 2022 it will a new formation albeit even if using the same name as Jubilee.
You need to go back to 2002 and 2013 transition elections and you will realise its not worth it to rely on elected MPS/officials .
-
Ruto’s running mate headache as allies maintain a low profile
https://www.nation.co.ke/kenya/news/politics/ruto-ready-for-poll-but-where-is-mate-1921470
DP Ruto was initially said to be keen on a running mate from the Mount Kenya region or Western, but his targets have since decamped, lost national influence or fallen out of favour.
Analysts, however, think Mr Kiunjuri would not be of much help to the DP if President Kenyatta—who has all but confirmed he might renege on his promise to back the DP for the top job in 2022—stamps his authority.
Political analyst Herman Manyora says the DP remains in a state of quagmire as political bigwigs are allied to President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga’s Handshake team.
“Any association with Ruto comes at a high cost. The biggest challenge he has is the pariah status he’s being pushed into. The system is making it very difficult for people to want to work with him,” Prof Manyora says.
He argues that the DP is also in a dilemma as the vote-rich Mount Kenya region is also making demands for the running mate position “despite their vote not being guaranteed because of the President Kenyatta factor.”
President Moi facor was detrimental to Uhuru in 2002 , President Kibaki factor was detrimental to Mudavadi in 2013 .
The so called fall out between Uhuru and Ruto has been a blessing in disguise for Ruto - If it wasnt it for that all the illls caused by Uhuru would be blamed on him .
Secondly these so called Political Analysts are hired mercenaries disguising as intellectuals . Who doesnt know Manyora has been bidding for Raila since 2007 albeit with Nil success .
Mobutu backed Uhuru in 2002 - Raila in 2007 - flopped both times. Noone has any magic pill circumstances and strategy matter more. 60 years Uhuru is not senile like Moi and Kibaki. Funny you raise "hiring" of mercenaries - which is Mobutu's primary modus operandi. If Mobutu was genuinely popular he wouldn't need to pay off folks to back him. It is why they vaporize at his hour of need as we saw in parliament.
In 2002 , Moi was still the kingpin of RV politics in 2007 Ruto backed Kalonzo only for RV who had a grudge with Kibaki to force him to back Raila . You need to read Railas book which attributed to all his failures to Ruto( Moi bypassing him in 2002 , Ruto backing Kalonzo in 2007 and 2013 loss to Uhuru )
Moi and Kibaki in their old age were sober and steadfast , they could administer and govern the country. Infact if it wasn't for the term limits they could have contiued as presidents , as for Uhuru its a different ball game all together , In is first term Ruto was the one running the show at least we saw tangible results . In his second term Uhuru has delegated everything to Matiangi and Raila , the other day you heard Karua saying Raila articulated Government /State policy louder and better than Uhuru .
Secondly whenever you see Uhuru or listed to him its as if he cant wait for his term to finish so that he can go and enjoy his life . He is tired of everything . No who is senile ?
Politicians will always be politicians they were just following Ruto for the simple fact they know he will be winning in 2022 and Ruto was indeed controlling Jubilee party machinery before the coup orchestrated by murathe /Njee Muturi , If Ruto was paying them as you claim they wouldn't be voting as whipped to safeguard their perks and allowances .as 2022 approaches for a fact they flow back into Rutos corner however it will be a little bit too late as per history 90% of them wont make it back to parliament
-
If wishes were horses - all beggars would ride that grand glittery thoroughbred stallion. Complete with armored chariot. Reality is what you saw in parliament as they hanged Tharaka dwarf. 2/3 is no joke. This one-man formula is anti-Ruto wedge - that the BASIS - all the circus is to how Uhuru is trying as Ruto vehemently oppose him.
These are new signings. The old players are entrenched. Ruto start with near clean sweap of rift valley and pastoral kenya. That is already a huge head-start. He is fighting for his political life in GEMA and so far he still very popular on the ground. He he support in all corners of kenya. Only Raila use to boast of that.
What next? The BBI crew - will they unite? Under who? Kalonzo and Raila don't see eye to eye. GEma and Raila don't jell. Gideon is hoping against hope. maDVD confused as ever
The small potatos like PK and Matiangi are hoping Uhuru will issues Executive Order No Last to make them president :) We haven't gone to jokers like Mutua, Makueni Prof, and Wa-riria.
Now here comes Ruto the clear favourite already with running mate.
How many freeloaders are hanging on Mobutu coattails? Khalwale, Omar Hassan, Muthama - the "think tank" is a collection of losers. Delusional Muthama claims to have chokehold on Kamba. Khalwale was clobbered 70-20 by Oparanya but will deliver Luhya. Omar is expected to deliver Coast when he was distant 3rd for Mombasa governor :o
Roby , what you fail to point out that the following factors made the senators vote the way they did .
First is the nominated senators from Jubilee were threatened to be thrown out of parliament if they went against Murathe /Njee Muturi/ wishes
Jubilee elected senators were threatened to be de-whipped from senate committees where they earn perks and allowances essentially their money makers if you also add favors and corrupt money .
ODM senators want to destroy Jubilee and if they get an opportunity they are ready to utilize it .
Having said that , there is a big difference between party politics , senate politics and national politics . Party and senate politics is not necessarily a reflection of national politics , 90% of the elected senators wont make it back to senate. Majority of the senators didnt make it to senate by virtue of being Kingpins who can sway their regions to vote one way or the other . They made it by belonging to the right party at the right time . In 2013 it was either TNA/URP and in 2017 it was Jubilee , in 2022 it will a new formation albeit even if using the same name as Jubilee.
You need to go back to 2002 and 2013 transition elections and you will realise its not worth it to rely on elected MPS/officials .
Noway - all that political science to explain small item. Saying senators were threatened with de-whipping is implausible - as you can see Murkomen is fiercely anti-Handshake as he was then. Kihika or Cherargei or Ledama defy Raila and Ruto. And you can't have it both ways - if MPs support Ruto they will come back or what? Divorce churn rate from your argument. We were told here during the purge how senators are few and can be threatened easily, that MPs would be the real battle. What happened? Purge sailed through unopposed as Ruto surrendered to save some face.
It took lots of hard work, cronyism and resources to cobble together Jubilee. Much more than URP or TNA overnight party. INCUMBENCY was the principal ingredient to fold parties into Jubilee. Now let see how Luhya or Mijikenda or Gusii agree to follow Ruto to nowhere - Jubilee Asili :D - only Kalenjin are fully on board. Hata Mdvd amekataa.
-
I am curious to see what polls show Ruto as clear favorite? Was it before or after Jubilee mayhem? Any credible pollster or it that Scangroup company from London noone has ever heard of before?
The opinion polls show Ruto clear favourite but now our reality is distorted.Losers like Gideon,PK and even Raila who is now glorified Lou leader back to factory settings are winners.There are matiangis who are hoping to jump straight
into PORK from civil service. The idea is Uhuru will rig them in...hopeless uhuru that can't even win formulae debate...his first battle without Ruto helping hand After them are hopeless madvd and poor kaloi.Ruto will pick Mwangi Kiunjuri and the rest are details
-
Which GEMA are in win-win - unless you mean Linturi who claim to back Tharaka? Even Kihika is pro-formula despite huge Kalenjin buffer in Nakuru. She knows GEMA really care about one man-one vote - cause the propaganda that they are overwhelming majority has sunk in. Unless you mean "ground" which you can't substantiate.
Show us any Kikuyu senator backing win-win.
Ruto has been consistent - win win - Raila has been 50-50. Uhuru obviously tyring to drive gema to the edge. Gema have refused to be driven to the edge for 3yrs now. Why would they accept it now. Gema can see it from far. They know 10yrs ago...they were hunted all over Kenya like straw dogs..they are not ready for a repeat - and for what benefit. They are in win-win despite the protestation.
And this is where ruto normally wins..he has a stand, he makes a decision and he stick with it. Moi was like that. Nobody like a Kalonzo or now a Raila windsock.
Nobody want to back somebody flowing with the wind. Ruto has to be careful with GEMA - it's gotta be tough love. You cannot afford to bend backwards like Kalonzo. You have to provide leadership. And this is win-win. GEMA are so fearful of return to 41-1 they will compromise if need be.
If wishes were horses - all beggars would ride that grand glittery thoroughbred stallion. Complete with armored chariot. Reality is what you saw in parliament as they hanged Tharaka dwarf. 2/3 is no joke. This one-man formula is anti-Ruto wedge - that the BASIS - all the circus is to how Uhuru is trying as Ruto vehemently oppose him.
-
If wishes were horses - all beggars would ride that grand glittery thoroughbred stallion. Complete with armored chariot. Reality is what you saw in parliament as they hanged Tharaka dwarf. 2/3 is no joke. This one-man formula is anti-Ruto wedge - that the BASIS - all the circus is to how Uhuru is trying as Ruto vehemently oppose him.
These are new signings. The old players are entrenched. Ruto start with near clean sweap of rift valley and pastoral kenya. That is already a huge head-start. He is fighting for his political life in GEMA and so far he still very popular on the ground. He he support in all corners of kenya. Only Raila use to boast of that.
What next? The BBI crew - will they unite? Under who? Kalonzo and Raila don't see eye to eye. GEma and Raila don't jell. Gideon is hoping against hope. maDVD confused as ever
The small potatos like PK and Matiangi are hoping Uhuru will issues Executive Order No Last to make them president :) We haven't gone to jokers like Mutua, Makueni Prof, and Wa-riria.
Now here comes Ruto the clear favourite already with running mate.
How many freeloaders are hanging on Mobutu coattails? Khalwale, Omar Hassan, Muthama - the "think tank" is a collection of losers. Delusional Muthama claims to have chokehold on Kamba. Khalwale was clobbered 70-20 by Oparanya but will deliver Luhya. Omar is expected to deliver Coast when he was distant 3rd for Mombasa governor :o
Roby , what you fail to point out that the following factors made the senators vote the way they did .
First is the nominated senators from Jubilee were threatened to be thrown out of parliament if they went against Murathe /Njee Muturi/ wishes
Jubilee elected senators were threatened to be de-whipped from senate committees where they earn perks and allowances essentially their money makers if you also add favors and corrupt money .
ODM senators want to destroy Jubilee and if they get an opportunity they are ready to utilize it .
Having said that , there is a big difference between party politics , senate politics and national politics . Party and senate politics is not necessarily a reflection of national politics , 90% of the elected senators wont make it back to senate. Majority of the senators didnt make it to senate by virtue of being Kingpins who can sway their regions to vote one way or the other . They made it by belonging to the right party at the right time . In 2013 it was either TNA/URP and in 2017 it was Jubilee , in 2022 it will a new formation albeit even if using the same name as Jubilee.
You need to go back to 2002 and 2013 transition elections and you will realise its not worth it to rely on elected MPS/officials .
Noway - all that political science to explain small item. Saying senators were threatened with de-whipping is implausible - as you can see Murkomen is fiercely anti-Handshake as he was then. Kihika or Cherargei or Ledama defy Raila and Ruto. And you can't have it both ways - if MPs support Ruto they will come back or what? Divorce churn rate from your argument. We were told here during the purge how senators are few and can be threatened easily, that MPs would be the real battle. What happened? Purge sailed through unopposed as Ruto surrendered to save some face.
It took lots of hard work, cronyism and resources to cobble together Jubilee. Much more than URP or TNA overnight party. INCUMBENCY was the principal ingredient to fold parties into Jubilee. Now let see how Luhya or Mijikenda or Gusii agree to follow Ruto to nowhere - Jubilee Asili :D - only Kalenjin are fully on board. Hata Mdvd amekataa.
You see you are mixing part poltics, senate, politics and personal politics all together.
First on this matter apart from ODM Nyanza politician the rest have not been whipped . You had today Uhuru " disassociating" himself with what is happening in senate .
Murkomen is on a personal mission for personal reason , he wants to show that the Senate speaker and Majority whip and leaders are failures
ledama is using the opportunity to endear to the Maasai and also defend Narok(regional poiltics )
Cherargei and Kihika too are playing regional politics - You might recall Kihika was on the other side but switched quickly when he realized it might affect her politically . Cherargei during voting day was so confused that he voted for the other wing - He had to revote again for the pro formulae.
All in all the leaders have not pronounced themselves clearly and seem to have left it for the senators to sort it out and in so doing it has either gone political wise regioonally or personally.
I reteriate the ongoings of parliament and senate dont reflect the national politics its a wrong precursor to use to gauge 2022 elections .
-
You see you are mixing part poltics, senate, politics and personal politics all together.
First on this matter apart from ODM Nyanza politician the rest have not been whipped . You had today Uhuru " disassociating" himself with what is happening in senate .
Murkomen is on a personal mission for personal reason , he wants to show that the Senate speaker and Majority whip and leaders are failures
ledama is using the opportunity to endear to the Maasai and also defend Narok(regional poiltics )
Cherargei and Kihika too are playing regional politics - You might recall Kihika was on the other side but switched quickly when he realized it might affect her politically . Cherargei during voting day was so confused that he voted for the other wing - He had to revote again for the pro formulae.
All in all the leaders have not pronounced themselves clearly and seem to have left it for the senators to sort it out and in so doing it has either gone political wise regioonally or personally.
I reteriate the ongoings of parliament and senate dont reflect the national politics its a wrong precursor to use to gauge 2022 elections .
Okay - so which parameter or poll or sail signals that the national political tide is with Ruto? You pointed out the senators yourself.
-
Rutos running mate will be Kindiki kithure,take that to equity and bank.thank me later.
-
You see you are mixing part poltics, senate, politics and personal politics all together.
First on this matter apart from ODM Nyanza politician the rest have not been whipped . You had today Uhuru " disassociating" himself with what is happening in senate .
Murkomen is on a personal mission for personal reason , he wants to show that the Senate speaker and Majority whip and leaders are failures
ledama is using the opportunity to endear to the Maasai and also defend Narok(regional poiltics )
Cherargei and Kihika too are playing regional politics - You might recall Kihika was on the other side but switched quickly when he realized it might affect her politically . Cherargei during voting day was so confused that he voted for the other wing - He had to revote again for the pro formulae.
All in all the leaders have not pronounced themselves clearly and seem to have left it for the senators to sort it out and in so doing it has either gone political wise regioonally or personally.
I reteriate the ongoings of parliament and senate dont reflect the national politics its a wrong precursor to use to gauge 2022 elections .
Okay - so which parameter or poll or sail signals that the national political tide is with Ruto? You pointed out the senators yourself.
The only barometer to be used in real politics , go to the people on ground however much you try to undermine it. Take for example below out of 47 senators elected in 2013 only 11 made it back in 2017 - Thats around 23% probability of making it back -So if you are using current Senators as a barometer of winning 2022 you have a 23% accuracy rate.
See Below statistics
Mombasa County|Mombasa]]||[[Hassan Omar]]||[[Wiper Democratic Movement – Kenya]]-->Sen. Mwinyihaji Mohamed ==ODM
|-
Kwale County|Kwale]]||[[Boy Juma Boy]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Boy Issa Juma ==ODM
|-
Kilifi County|Kilifi]]||[[Stewart Madzayo]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]] --Sen. Madzayo Stewart Mwachiru ==ODM
|-
Tana River County|Tana River]]||[[Ali Bule]]||[[Federal Party of Kenya]]-->Sen. Wario Golich Juma == JP
|-
Lamu County|Lamu]]||[[Abu Chiaba]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Loitiptip Anuar ==JP
|-
Taita-Taveta County|Taita-Taveta]]||[[Dan Mwazo]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Mwaruma Johnes M == ODM
|-
Garissa County|Garissa]]||[[Yusuf Haji]]||[[The National Alliance]]--> Sen. Haji Mohamed Yusuf ==JP
|-
Wajir County|Wajir]]||[[Abdirahman Ali]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]] -->Sen. (Dr.) Ali Abdullahi Ibrahim--JP
|-
Mandera County|Mandera]]||[[Billow Kerow]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Mahamud Mohamed M==JP
|-
Marsabit County|Marsabit]]||[[Godana Hargura]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Hargura Godana -JP
|-
Isiolo County|Isiolo]]||[[Mohammed Kuti]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]] -->Sen. Adan Dullo Fatuma ==PDR
|-
Meru County|Meru]]||[[Kiraitu Murungi]]||[[Alliance Party of Kenya]]-->Sen. Linturi Franklin Mithika==JP
|-
Tharaka Nithi County|Tharaka]]||[[Kithure Kindiki]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kindiki Kithure ==JP
|-
Embu County|Embu]]||[[Lenny Kivuti]]||[[Alliance Party of Kenya]]-->Sen. Ndwiga Peter Njeru ==JP
|-
Kitui County|Kitui]]||[[David Musila]]||[[Wiper Democratic Movement – Kenya]]-->Sen. Wambua Enoch Kiio ==WDP
|-
Machakos County|Machakos]]||[[Johnstone Muthama]]||[[Wiper Democratic Movement – Kenya]]-->Sen. Kabaka Boniface Mutinda ==CCU
|-
Makueni County|Makueni]]||[[Mutula Kilonzo]]||[[Wiper Democratic Movement – Kenya]]-->Sen. Kilonzo Mutula Junior ==WDP
|-
Nyandarua County|Nyandarua]]||[[Muriuki Karue]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Mwangi Paul Githiomi ==JP
|-
Nyeri County|Nyeri]]||[[Mutahi Kagwe]]||[[National Rainbow Coalition]] -->Sen. (Eng.) Ephraim Mwangi ==JP
|-
Kirinyaga County|Kirinyaga]]||[[Daniel Karaba]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kibiru Charles Reubenson ==IND
|-
Murang'a County|Murang'a]]||[[Kembi Gitura]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kang’ata Irungu ==JP
|-
Kiambu County|Kiambu]]||[[Paul Kimani]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kimani Wamatangi Paul ==JP
|-
Turkana County|Turkana]]||[[John Munyes]]||[[Forum for the Restoration of Democracy – Kenya|FORD–Kenya]] -->Sen. (Prof.) Imana Malachy Ekal ==ODM
|-
West Pokot County|West Pokot]]||John Lonyangapuo||[[Kenya African National Union]]-->Sen. Poghisio Samuel Losuron ==KANU
|-
Samburu County|Samburu]]||[[Sammy Leshore]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]] -->Sen (Dr.) Ltumbesi Lelegwe -- JP
|-
Trans-Nzoia County|Trans-Nzoia]]||[[Henry Ndiema]]||[[Forum for the Restoration of Democracy – Kenya|FORD–Kenya]]--Sen. Mbito Michael Maling’a ==JP
|-
[Uasin Gishu County|Uasin Gishu]]||Isaac Melly||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Kamar Margaret Jepkoech ==JP
|-
[Elgeyo-Marakwet County|Elgeyo-Marakwet]]||[[Kipchumba Murkomen]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Murkomen Onesimus Kipchumba =JP
|-
Nandi County|Nandi]]||[[Stephen Sang]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Cherarkey Samson K ==JP
|-
Baringo County|Baringo]]||[[Gideon Moi]]||[[Kenya African National Union]]-->Sen. Moi Gideon Kipsielei ==KANU
|-
Laikipia County|Laikipia]]||[[Godffrey Gitahi Kariuki]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Nderitu John Kinyua ==JP
|-
Nakuru County|Nakuru]]||[[James Kiarie Mungai]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kihika Susan Wakarura ==JP
|-
Narok County|Narok]]||[[Stephen Kanyinge ole Ntutu]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Olekina Ledama ==ODM
|-
Kajiado County|Kajiado]]||[[Peter Mositet]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Mpaayei Phillip Salau ==JP
|-
Kericho County|Kericho]]||[[Charles Keter]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Cheruiyot Aaron Kipkirui ==JP
|-
Bomet County|Bomet]]||[[Wilson Lessan]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. (Dr.) Langat Christopher Andrew==JP
|-
Kakamega County|Kakamega]]||[[Bonny Khalwale]]||[[United Democratic Forum Party]]--Sen. Malala Cleophas W ==ANC
|-
Vihiga County|Vihiga]]||[[George Khaniri]]||[[United Democratic Forum Party]]-->Sen. Khaniri George ==ANC
|-
Bungoma County|Bungoma]]||[[Moses Wetangula]]||[[Forum for the Restoration of Democracy – Kenya|FORD–Kenya]]-->Sen. Wetang’ula Moses Masika ==FORD K
|-
Busia County|Busia]]||[[Amos Wako]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Wako Sitswila Amos ==ODM
|-
Siaya County|Siaya]]||[[James Orengo]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Orengo James ==ODM
|-
Kisumu County|Kisumu]]||[[Peter Anyang' Nyong'o]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Outa Fredrick Otieno ==ODM
|-
Homa Bay County|Homa Bay]]||[[Otieno Kajwang]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]--> Sen. Kajwang’ Moses Otieno ==ODM
|-
Migori County|Migori]]||[[Wilfred Machage]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]] -->Sen. Dr. Ochilo G.M. Ayacko.==ODM
|-
Kisii County|Kisii]]||[[Chris Obure]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. (Prof.) Ongeri Samson Kegengo ==ODM
|-
Nyamira County|Nyamira]]||[[Kennedy Mong'are Okong'o]]||[[Forum for the Restoration of Democracy – Kenya|FORD–Kenya]]--Sen. Mogeni Erick Okong’o ==ODM
|-
Nairobi County|Nairobi]]||[[Gideon Mbuvi]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Sakaja Johnson Arthur ==JP
-
Rutos running mate will be Kindiki kithure,take that to equity and bank.thank me later.
This has better chance.
-
Kindiki would be plan C after madvd or Luhya.Ruto plan A is to secure kikuyu vote and he will do that thro battle hardened Mwangi kiunjuri.Kikuyu had the largest effectiv oting block at 3.5m.Kalenjin came 2nd at shy of 2m.Meru plus embu at 1m.The rest gave jubilee nearly 2m..Ruto obviously can grow that 2m by attracting NASA tribes but has lost gusii I bet to matiangi if he will have the stomach for politics. So Ruto has no choice but to pick kikuyu..his main threat is no longer Raila but uhuru
-
Kindiki would be plan C after madvd or Luhya.Ruto plan A is to secure kikuyu vote and he will do that thro battle hardened Mwangi kiunjuri.Kikuyu had the largest effectiv oting block at 3.5m.Kalenjin came 2nd at shy of 2m.Meru plus embu at 1m.
Wrong, meru had 1M embu 0.2M. Meru by 2022 time will have 1.1M add embu will come to 1.4M
What are the chances of luhyas voting for ruto if he pic mudavadi? How many vites can he get from mudavadi?
-
A kikuyu DP will not add any value to Ruto because kikuyus will have a presidential candidate.There is no way kikuyus will leave their own on ballot and vote Ruto.Thats day dreaming.As for Mdvd,I doubt if he will accept to be a running mate.He already fired muluka and owallo for being Rutos sympathizers.Maybe if he goes with Khalwale.
-
Yes if you look at registered votes; but I was more looking at the effective votes; I'd say Kikuyus are more than twice Meru and Embu. Nairobi and Kiambu - kikuyu registered voters alone could be nearly 2m. The other counties the kikuyu figures are about "normal".
Btw Meru/Embu (with Kiraitu-Munya playing rough against Ruto) - and Luhya (with madvd/wetangula cooperating) - I'd take Luhya - as Plan B.
Mt Kenya east would be a plan C ( this is why Pajero likes it).
Wrong, meru had 1M embu 0.2M. Meru by 2022 time will have 1.1M add embu will come to 1.4M
What are the chances of luhyas voting for ruto if he pic mudavadi? How many vites can he get from mudavadi?
-
Kikuyu or GEMA look very likely to split if Uhuru doesn't back Ruto. There are many reasons for this - including prospect of 2007 repeat - worse case scenario - Ruto will get 50% of Mt Kenya. GEMA laity have so far refused to disembark from Mv Ruto. Ruto still has so many leaders and majority of the people. Kiunjuri bring new dynamic - his Mt Kenya diaspora from Laikipia - and with Nakuru - and they are getting a raw deal (pawns) if Kikuyu-Kalenjin were to fight - so they are the first to sue for peace and stick to 10-10 - and then battle will really happen in central proper - mt kenya east - both Munya and Kiraitu will be busy tearing each other for governorship.
This one man one shilling and BBI provide an opportunity for Uhuru to lose the country and win GEMA. Let see if GEMA will take the bait, hook, line and sinker. The complication is from Meru-Tharaka ( they are against the 1M1S).
And the worse is getting a candidate that can stir up the Mt Kenya expectation. Peter Keneth is long pass his sell by date. CDF magic long disappeared and Ndidi Nyoros are doing better now. Only someone like Equity James Mwangi (genuine GEMA hero) would worry Ruto - otherwise PK or whoever else is waste of time.
In the meantime I think Raila has just about lost COAST, MAA and Turkana. Gusii is pretty much gone to Matiangi. Now Raila last bastion outside Luo Nyanza is maybe Busia and Oparanya :)
It's really difficult to win both GEMA and Non-GEMA.
A kikuyu DP will not add any value to Ruto because kikuyus will have a presidential candidate.There is no way kikuyus will leave their own on ballot and vote Ruto.Thats day dreaming.As for Mdvd,I doubt if he will accept to be a running mate.He already fired muluka and owallo for being Rutos sympathizers.Maybe if he goes with Khalwale.
-
Kikuyus dividing their votes,you are dreaming big.You don't know kikuyus.Tell Ruto to seek votes else where.
-
And what will you tell Raila whose plan A B C AND D is Kikuyus backing him.
Kikuyus dividing their votes,you are dreaming big.You don't know kikuyus.Tell Ruto to seek votes else where.
-
You seem too sure about Luhya. Mdvd and ANC have been openly distancing themselves from Ruto which is a bad sign. I mean their new katiba compel Mdvd to go for PORK and opposing voices were crashed. 2013 Mdvd had mostly Maragoli - Bukusu went Raila. Now FORD K is destabilized with coup attempts and warring camps - they just expelled Eseli and Wamunyinyi-Wangamati. I don't see Ruto Luhya prospects as that good - it worse there than Mt Kenya.
Yes if you look at registered votes; but I was more looking at the effective votes; I'd say Kikuyus are more than twice Meru and Embu. Nairobi and Kiambu - kikuyu registered voters alone could be nearly 2m. The other counties the kikuyu figures are about "normal".
Btw Meru/Embu (with Kiraitu-Munya playing rough against Ruto) - and Luhya (with madvd/wetangula cooperating) - I'd take Luhya - as Plan B.
Mt Kenya east would be a plan C ( this is why Pajero likes it).
Wrong, meru had 1M embu 0.2M. Meru by 2022 time will have 1.1M add embu will come to 1.4M
What are the chances of luhyas voting for ruto if he pic mudavadi? How many vites can he get from mudavadi?
-
Yes Ruto fate rest with Mt Kenya and Uhuru. It equally difficult for him to please both GEMA-Non GEMA competing interests. I see Ruto as easier taking MATUSA and NFD but not coast, then Gusii, Luhya, Kamba which have big numbers. He remain as URP-KADU king. Watch keenly and noone big side with him cause he is unpopular outside URP areas and Mt Kenya.
Uhuru seem determined to appease GEMA and doesn't care about the rest. All the tribal appointments in parastatals and parliament, skewed projects and budget allocations, now this 1M1S. PK is taking GEMA with Uhuru backing - who will then partner with Raila. He has no savvy to join those Atwoli meetings by himself it obvious Uhuru is backing him. Ruto will be accused of defeating 1M1S thru Murkomen which Orengo and Kajwang are passionately pushing with Kang!ata and Kimemias. See how quiet MK is right now - same as Joho-Kingi. Cause 1M1S is so popular in Kikuyu, very unpopular in Pwani.
If GEMA go 50-50, am not convinced Ruto has the numbers to beat Raila in non-GEMA. Pastoralist are few. Your guess is as good as mine who Matiang’is and Johos back.
Kikuyu or GEMA look very likely to split if Uhuru doesn't back Ruto. There are many reasons for this - including prospect of 2007 repeat - worse case scenario - Ruto will get 50% of Mt Kenya. GEMA laity have so far refused to disembark from Mv Ruto. Ruto still has so many leaders and majority of the people. Kiunjuri bring new dynamic - his Mt Kenya diaspora from Laikipia - and with Nakuru - and they are getting a raw deal (pawns) if Kikuyu-Kalenjin were to fight - so they are the first to sue for peace and stick to 10-10 - and then battle will really happen in central proper - mt kenya east - both Munya and Kiraitu will be busy tearing each other for governorship.
This one man one shilling and BBI provide an opportunity for Uhuru to lose the country and win GEMA. Let see if GEMA will take the bait, hook, line and sinker. The complication is from Meru-Tharaka ( they are against the 1M1S).
And the worse is getting a candidate that can stir up the Mt Kenya expectation. Peter Keneth is long pass his sell by date. CDF magic long disappeared and Ndidi Nyoros are doing better now. Only someone like Equity James Mwangi (genuine GEMA hero) would worry Ruto - otherwise PK or whoever else is waste of time.
In the meantime I think Raila has just about lost COAST, MAA and Turkana. Gusii is pretty much gone to Matiangi. Now Raila last bastion outside Luo Nyanza is maybe Busia and Oparanya :)
It's really difficult to win both GEMA and Non-GEMA.
A kikuyu DP will not add any value to Ruto because kikuyus will have a presidential candidate.There is no way kikuyus will leave their own on ballot and vote Ruto.Thats day dreaming.As for Mdvd,I doubt if he will accept to be a running mate.He already fired muluka and owallo for being Rutos sympathizers.Maybe if he goes with Khalwale.
-
MaDVD is just playing hard to get. He knows he is going nowhere. Savula is just bullying him. The strategy for 2020 - for players like mudavadi - is either pre or post coalition. He has not chance. Ruto has a shot at PORK. Ruto has never stood for PORK - while MaDVD has - but he had no shot. Only take your chance when you have a shot. Otherwise curve balls is desperation.
You seem too sure about Luhya. Mdvd and ANC have been openly distancing themselves from Ruto which is a bad sign. I mean their new katiba compel Mdvd to go for PORK and opposing voices were crashed. 2013 Mdvd had mostly Maragoli - Bukusu went Raila. Now FORD K is destabilized with coup attempts and warring camps - they just expelled Eseli and Wamunyinyi-Wangamati. I don't see Ruto Luhya prospects as that good - it worse there than Mt Kenya.
-
The most likely scenario for 2022 is Ruto, Raila (may not run if GEMA abandon him) and Gema candidate.
I predict Ruto will come top but short of 50%
We will have interesting and for the first time - a second re-run.
At this point - it will be deal making - Ruto will probably hit 35-40% at first round. Ruto will probably carry whole RV including kikuyu diaspora - that is good 25% head start.
GEMA elite (Deep state) candidate with Matiangi deputizing (they will try to get GUSII). Many in GEMA will refuse to board such a system candidate.
The oldman Raila - after being kicked out as candidate for the Brige to Nowhere party - will either run as ODM candidate with Joho or Oparanya - or give up :) - or will back Ruto.
And then we will have 10 candidates sharing 30% - probably led by either Raila or Uhuru stooge(may score 15-20%).
Now who decide the winner - in 2nd round - it will basically be NON GEMA versus GEMA. Kenyans will have a choice btw another kikuyu candidate going for 10yrs - and Ruto.
And so Ruto wins. GEMA fears a re-run because non_GEMA will easily gang up - which is why Uhuru had to win in first round.
Ruto only lose if Raila was to get Gema BACKING.
We know GEMA would prefer Ruto than Raila anyday.
So the stars are perfectly aligned for Ruto.
It's just going to be longer path to victory without Uhuru backing.
If Uhuru changes his mind and cut a deal with Ruto.
Ruto wins in first round by 60%.
Yes Ruto fate rest with Mt Kenya and Uhuru. It equally difficult for him to please both GEMA-Non GEMA competing interests. I see Ruto as easier taking MATUSA and NFD but not coast, then Gusii, Luhya, Kamba which have big numbers. He remain as URP-KADU king. Watch keenly and noone big side with him cause he is unpopular outside URP areas and Mt Kenya.
Uhuru seem determined to appease GEMA and doesn't care about the rest. All the tribal appointments in parastatals and parliament, skewed projects and budget allocations, now this 1M1S. PK is taking GEMA with Uhuru backing - who will then partner with Raila. He has no savvy to join those Atwoli meetings by himself it obvious Uhuru is backing him. Ruto will be accused of defeating 1M1S thru Murkomen which Orengo and Kajwang are passionately pushing with Kang!ata and Kimemias. See how quiet MK is right now - same as Joho-Kingi. Cause 1M1S is so popular in Kikuyu, very unpopular in Pwani.
If GEMA go 50-50, am not convinced Ruto has the numbers to beat Raila in non-GEMA. Pastoralist are few. Your guess is as good as mine who Matiang’is and Johos back.
-
He doesn't even have a party and you dream of him becoming president,Mobutu will maximize at 18%.His hopes of inheriting Uhurus backyard votes has fallen flat.that was his game plan.kalenjins are just 1.6 registered voters enough to make him a distant third.
-
He doesn't even have a party and you dream of him becoming president,Mobutu will maximize at 18%.His hopes of inheriting Uhurus backyard votes has fallen flat.that was his game plan.kalenjins are just 1.6 registered voters enough to make him a distant third.
I presume you have shifted all the GEMA votes to baba?
-
He doesn't even have a party and you dream of him becoming president,Mobutu will maximize at 18%.His hopes of inheriting Uhurus backyard votes has fallen flat.that was his game plan.kalenjins are just 1.6 registered voters enough to make him a distant third.
Do you people even believe in what you write ?
-
Gema votes will go to PK,our voting has always been tribal and it will not change ,we are a tribal nation and no amount of theories will change that.All the big 5 will vote their man.Kikuyus have never voted an outsider,this is a fact,well documented.Ruto is wasting his time
-
Pajero, what is Raila gameplan after splitting jubilee and killing NASA,reverting back to ndp of 97.Or you in usual polemic like you told us kikuyu and kalenjin are oil and water pre 2013...now ten years later..its kikuyu will never vote an outsider
-
Yes Mdvd has no chance - but he only distances himself from Ruto not Raila. Savula actually says they are working with Uhuru. How does that look for say run-off endorsements? If it Raila-PK vs Ruto-MK .. in run-off Mdvds would be forced to choose.
MaDVD is just playing hard to get. He knows he is going nowhere. Savula is just bullying him. The strategy for 2020 - for players like mudavadi - is either pre or post coalition. He has not chance. Ruto has a shot at PORK. Ruto has never stood for PORK - while MaDVD has - but he had no shot. Only take your chance when you have a shot. Otherwise curve balls is desperation.
-
Your hope is Uhuru betraying Raila. Possible but unlikely. It much more unlikely for Uhuru to back Ruto.
My prediction is Raila-PK as Uhuru stooge vs Ruto-MK. They split GEMA and so non-GEMA dog-fight come down to influencers in big tribes. Raila BBI Manifesto will promise to make Mdvds PM or DPM in 100 days :) Ruto atalia.
The most likely scenario for 2022 is Ruto, Raila (may not run if GEMA abandon him) and Gema candidate.
I predict Ruto will come top but short of 50%
We will have interesting and for the first time - a second re-run.
At this point - it will be deal making - Ruto will probably hit 35-40% at first round. Ruto will probably carry whole RV including kikuyu diaspora - that is good 25% head start.
GEMA elite (Deep state) candidate with Matiangi deputizing (they will try to get GUSII). Many in GEMA will refuse to board such a system candidate.
The oldman Raila - after being kicked out as candidate for the Brige to Nowhere party - will either run as ODM candidate with Joho or Oparanya - or give up :) - or will back Ruto.
And then we will have 10 candidates sharing 30% - probably led by either Raila or Uhuru stooge(may score 15-20%).
Now who decide the winner - in 2nd round - it will basically be NON GEMA versus GEMA. Kenyans will have a choice btw another kikuyu candidate going for 10yrs - and Ruto.
And so Ruto wins. GEMA fears a re-run because non_GEMA will easily gang up - which is why Uhuru had to win in first round.
Ruto only lose if Raila was to get Gema BACKING.
We know GEMA would prefer Ruto than Raila anyday.
So the stars are perfectly aligned for Ruto.
It's just going to be longer path to victory without Uhuru backing.
If Uhuru changes his mind and cut a deal with Ruto.
Ruto wins in first round by 60%.
-
Your premise that GEMA will back Raila has no basis. Start to imagine a Plan B. GEMA elite will not back Raila. He is just a hard sell. If they don't reconcile with Ruto who is already sold to GEMA - they will either 1) Get their own GEMA stooge and play gema nationalism 2) Get a pliable non-GEMA stooge like Matiangi - and back him up. The problem they will face huge rebellion from GEMA laity. So we are going to witness a bloodbath like MauMau btw homeguards and the thurakus.
Now does Raila has Plan B. Nobody knows. He has killed NASA. He has very little leverage now - which is why he is jumping with two feet from the frying pan to the fire.
His Plan B is to go back to ODM and run with Oparanya or Joho. Both who are minorities in their respective region. Joho is kaput because Mijikenda have had enough with ODM. Oparanya little sub tribe - won't get any hearing from Bukusu-Maragoli-even Wanga.
For Raila we are looking at NDP 1997 - 10% - as his final run for PORK.
Your hope is Uhuru betraying Raila. Possible but unlikely. It much more unlikely for Uhuru to back Ruto.
My prediction is Raila-PK as Uhuru stooge vs Ruto-MK. They split GEMA and so non-GEMA dog-fight come down to influencers in big tribes. Raila BBI Manifesto will promise to make Mdvds PM or DPM in 100 days :) Ruto atalia.
-
Gema will not back Raila,neither will they back mobutu.now in that scenario,who benefits???About Railas game plan,simple,split jubilee into two,Jubilee Kikuyu and Jubilee nandi,back to TNA ,URP settings.
-
And NASA is split already into 4 - NASA madvda, Weta, Kalonzo and Raila.
Gema will not back Raila,neither will they back mobutu.now in that scenario,who benefits???About Railas game plan,simple,split jubilee into two,Jubilee Kikuyu and Jubilee nandi,back to TNA ,URP settings.
-
A kikuyu DP will not add any value to Ruto because kikuyus will have a presidential candidate.There is no way kikuyus will leave their own on ballot and vote Ruto.Thats day dreaming.As for Mdvd,I doubt if he will accept to be a running mate.He already fired muluka and owallo for being Rutos sympathizers.Maybe if he goes with Khalwale.
One thing which is coming out clear from Raila die hards is that they know a united Mt Kenya will be a problem for Raila.
One side wants the votes to split .
Another side wants Mt Kenya to support Raila through a Mt Kenya or Uhuru stooge
Another side wants voter empathy in Mt Kenya.
The truth is Mt Kenya is just anti Raila , nothing else and as long as he is in the ballot , they will galvanize and make sure he is defeated through Ruto
The only way Raila can achieve the above three is simply by giving up his ambitions and supporting another candidate .
However from his calculations he thinks cobbling up a team like Nark summit , Pentagon by legalizing it through BBI will give him a clear chance against Ruto. One thing he forgets the same formulae will be used by Ruto. Kamabas and Luhyas gave Raila around 3 Million votes ,If BBI goes through though highly unlikely those are good enough numbers to bring Kalonzo and Mudavadi /Wetangula to his side.
-
Jubilee is already split,unless you are soo dumb to see,Mobutu is shopping for a party yet you still think gema are with Mobutu,you must be mad to imagine gema will leave their jubilee and follow Mobutu to urp Nandi asili,you need to check your head recalibrated.
-
It a fallacy that GEMA will just blindly vote any gema.
The candidate has to be credible and has to have a winning formulae.
Uhuru won when he convinced Ruto to back him - GEMA could see a winning credible candidate.
Now GEMA elite once they ditch your man Raila - will present a dead on arrival candidature - against political juggernauts of Ruto and - the dying Raila.
Outside Matiangi (Gusii) - I don't see any other tribe willing to deputize GEMA - not maDVD - not Kalonzo - that will be 10 more yrs as lackey- and if then - it would not even make their candidate cross 30%
Now add a scorned Raila - who will have to be shafted for PK-Matiangi or such system experiment to go ahead.
Gema will have to think about DPORK that is assured in 50-50 deal with Ruto to complete Jubilee dream - and their own PORK that is wild goose chase plus could send them back to 2007.
Remember to win - you need 50% plus one. So you need a candidate who is ready for prime time.
You can no longer just fish a rabbit out of a hole and declare them your candidate - the constitution requires that candidate to enjoy widespread support.
Jubilee is already split,unless you are soo dumb to see,Mobutu is shopping for a party yet you still think gema are with Mobutu,you must be mad to imagine gema will leave their jubilee and follow Mobutu to urp Nandi asili,you need to check your head recalibrated.
-
It's also a fallacy that gema nation cannot front one of their own or cobble a coalition with other players apart from mobutu.you must be high on farmented mursik.now listen,gema will always be on top in any political arrangement courtesy of their tyranny of numbers.Its the small rivers that join big rivers,that's the political reality whether you like or hate it.Now how do you convince a kikuyu whose voting population is thrice that of kalenjin to play second fiddle to kalenjin,please sober up.gema have options beyond Mobutu,give us a break,start sharpening your arrows if that is what will make Mobutu president.
So according to you,it's only Mobutu who can cobble a winning formulae,chieth.How do you even think about winning yet you are party less,radarless,clueless,careless.
What makes you think luos or luhyas or even kambas cannot support another kikuyu for presidency same way you supported Uhuru or you think it's only kalenjins who have political patents and rights to support kikuyus,shut up.
-
https://mobile.twitter.com/Cjamehk/status/1297590018920394756/photo/1
-
Gema votes will go to PK,our voting has always been tribal and it will not change ,we are a tribal nation and no amount of theories will change that.All the big 5 will vote their man.Kikuyus have never voted an outsider,this is a fact,well documented.Ruto is wasting his time
Do you know PK is not even regarded as a GEMA , Secondly apart from Mt Kenya East , the west have always voted against a candidate not for a candidate . In the 90S it was MOI in 2000s it was Raila . Its not about to change anytime soon until Raila hangs his boots
-
Yes Mdvd has no chance - but he only distances himself from Ruto not Raila. Savula actually says they are working with Uhuru. How does that look for say run-off endorsements? If it Raila-PK vs Ruto-MK .. in run-off Mdvds would be forced to choose.
MaDVD is just playing hard to get. He knows he is going nowhere. Savula is just bullying him. The strategy for 2020 - for players like mudavadi - is either pre or post coalition. He has not chance. Ruto has a shot at PORK. Ruto has never stood for PORK - while MaDVD has - but he had no shot. Only take your chance when you have a shot. Otherwise curve balls is desperation.
Kalonzo and Mudavadi cannot afford to be in opposition for a 3rd time running if they decide that their supporters especially the ones seeking elective posts will decamp to the side with prospects of winning . Thats the reason you see Muluka et all already resigning from ANC .
If you talk about amending party constitution so that he cannot be a running mate , that can always be revised and in most cases done during the period of coalition building and endorsing coalition agreement .
-
Jubilee is already split,unless you are soo dumb to see,Mobutu is shopping for a party yet you still think gema are with Mobutu,you must be mad to imagine gema will leave their jubilee and follow Mobutu to urp Nandi asili,you need to check your head recalibrated.
In Kenyan politics a party is a vehicle used to ride to power , TNA & URP were formed just months prior to elections heck , lets go back to 2002 , NARC was formed a few moths to GE , in 2007 PNU and ODM wer formed just months to GE , IN 2013 same can be said of TNA and URP and 2017 of Jubilee . The common denominator is that the winning party has always been new and formed months prior to elections .If I was a historian my learning point is for Ruto chances to be enhanced in 2022 he might indeed need to form a new party - This has its own advantages ,
Where is Narc where is PNU where is ODM to the former selves ? you answer is a good as mine
-
It's also a fallacy that gema nation cannot front one of their own or cobble a coalition with other players apart from mobutu.you must be high on farmented mursik.now listen,gema will always be on top in any political arrangement courtesy of their tyranny of numbers.Its the small rivers that join big rivers,that's the political reality whether you like or hate it.Now how do you convince a kikuyu whose voting population is thrice that of kalenjin to play second fiddle to kalenjin,please sober up.gema have options beyond Mobutu,give us a break,start sharpening your arrows if that is what will make Mobutu president.
So according to you,it's only Mobutu who can cobble a winning formulae,chieth.How do you even think about winning yet you are party less,radarless,clueless,careless.
What makes you think luos or luhyas or even kambas cannot support another kikuyu for presidency same way you supported Uhuru or you think it's only kalenjins who have political patents and rights to support kikuyus,shut up.
Notice how you removed Raila out of equation . Mt Kenya has never been united only for a simple reason - They just dont like or trust Raila , now remove Raila from equation as you have done and it will be a different matrix altogether and Ruto will need to go back to drawing board .
AS far as who has been rudderless and clueless , go no further than Raila and ODM themselves , jumping from one blunder to the other they are now corruption defenders and they always say the reason for the handshake was to fight corruption .They are politicians and they might be playing poltics to save BBI bu a matter of fact on the ground they lost alot of points when they were selling themselves as the anti grafters
-
Pajero, let see who will deputies your 20yrs going now candidate PK and how much votes they will get.Gema candidate unless it was someone like James Mwangi will first struggle to unite GEMA.You don't just drop from the sky and everyone line up.Maybe Raila and odm are willing to deputies PK...if that was true...he would get some traction..but as long as Raila ain't planning to do that...Ruto remain the favourite
-
https://mobile.twitter.com/Cjamehk/status/1297590018920394756/photo/1
The usual nonsense.Urp and tna when it was coalition.URP had 72 mps while TNA HAD 85.The same with governors and srnators.Ruto start with kalenjin votes and bring the rest of kabila to jubilee..so we are talking nearly 4m for gema 4m.
-
Politics is about what one brings on the table,ruto brings 1.4million votes,gema brings 5.2.Then you tell me about mps,go to hell.
-
How many votes does Raila bring? Going by opinion poll - he not even at 20. Ruto is playing around 30-50%. That is a lot of votes.
Politics is about what one brings on the table,ruto brings 1.4million votes,gema brings 5.2.Then you tell me about mps,go to hell.
-
Politics is about what one brings on the table,ruto brings 1.4million votes,gema brings 5.2.Then you tell me about mps,go to hell.
Okay so who owns the so called Mt Kenyas 5.2 Million votes ?