Mobutu's wobbling campaign and runningmate conundrum

[Nefertiti]

If wishes were horses - all beggars would ride that grand glittery thoroughbred stallion. Complete with armored chariot. Reality is what you saw in parliament as they hanged Tharaka dwarf. 2/3 is no joke. This one-man formula is anti-Ruto wedge - that the BASIS - all the circus is to how Uhuru is trying as Ruto vehemently oppose him.

These are new signings. The old players are entrenched. Ruto start with near clean sweap of rift valley and pastoral kenya. That is already a huge head-start. He is fighting for his political life in GEMA and so far he still very popular on the ground.  He he support in all corners of kenya. Only Raila use to boast of that.

What next? The BBI crew - will they unite? Under who? Kalonzo and Raila don't see eye to eye. GEma and Raila don't jell. Gideon is hoping against hope. maDVD confused as ever

The small potatos like PK and Matiangi are hoping Uhuru will issues Executive Order No Last to make them president We haven't gone to jokers like Mutua, Makueni Prof, and Wa-riria.

Now here comes Ruto the clear favourite already with running mate.

How many freeloaders are hanging on Mobutu coattails? Khalwale, Omar Hassan, Muthama - the "think tank" is a collection of losers. Delusional Muthama claims to have chokehold on Kamba. Khalwale was clobbered 70-20 by Oparanya but will deliver Luhya. Omar is expected to deliver Coast when he was distant 3rd for Mombasa governor

Roby , what you fail to point out that the following factors made the senators vote the way they did .
First is the nominated senators from Jubilee  were threatened to be thrown out of parliament if they went against Murathe /Njee Muturi/ wishes 
Jubilee elected senators were threatened to be de-whipped from senate committees where they earn perks and allowances essentially their money makers if you also  add favors and corrupt money .
ODM senators want to destroy Jubilee and if they get an opportunity they are ready to utilize it .


Having said that , there is a big difference between party politics , senate politics and national politics . Party and senate politics is not necessarily a reflection of national politics , 90% of the elected senators wont make it back to senate. Majority of the senators didnt make it to senate by virtue of being Kingpins who can sway their regions to vote one way or the other . They made it by belonging to the right party at the right time . In 2013 it was either TNA/URP and in 2017 it was Jubilee , in 2022 it will a new formation albeit even if using the same name as Jubilee.
You need to go back to 2002 and 2013 transition elections and you will realise its not worth it to rely on elected MPS/officials .

Noway - all that political science to explain small item. Saying senators were threatened with de-whipping is implausible - as you can see Murkomen is fiercely anti-Handshake as he was then. Kihika or Cherargei or Ledama defy Raila and Ruto. And you can't have it both ways - if MPs support Ruto they will come back or what? Divorce churn rate from your argument. We were told here during the purge how senators are few and can be threatened easily, that MPs would be the real battle. What happened? Purge sailed through unopposed as Ruto surrendered to save some face.

It took lots of hard work, cronyism and resources to cobble together Jubilee. Much more than URP or TNA overnight party. INCUMBENCY was the principal ingredient to fold parties into Jubilee. Now let see how Luhya or Mijikenda or Gusii agree to follow Ruto to nowhere - Jubilee Asili - only Kalenjin are fully on board. Hata Mdvd amekataa.

[Nefertiti]

I am curious to see what polls show Ruto as clear favorite? Was it before or after Jubilee mayhem? Any credible pollster or it that Scangroup company from London noone has ever heard of before?

The opinion polls show Ruto clear favourite but now our reality  is distorted.Losers like Gideon,PK and even Raila who is now glorified Lou leader back to factory settings are winners.There are matiangis who are hoping to jump straight
into PORK from civil service.  The idea is Uhuru will rig them in...hopeless uhuru that can't even win formulae debate...his first battle  without Ruto helping hand After them are hopeless madvd and poor kaloi.Ruto will pick  Mwangi Kiunjuri and the rest are details

[Nefertiti]

Which GEMA are in win-win - unless you mean Linturi who claim to back Tharaka? Even Kihika is pro-formula despite huge Kalenjin buffer in Nakuru. She knows GEMA really care about one man-one vote - cause the propaganda that they are overwhelming majority has sunk in. Unless you mean "ground" which you can't substantiate.

Show us any Kikuyu senator backing win-win.

Ruto has been consistent - win win - Raila has been 50-50. Uhuru obviously tyring to drive gema to the edge. Gema have refused to be driven to the edge for 3yrs now. Why would they accept it now. Gema can see it from far. They know 10yrs ago...they were hunted all over Kenya like straw dogs..they are not ready for a repeat  - and for what benefit. They are in win-win despite the protestation.

And this is where ruto normally wins..he has a stand, he makes a decision and he stick with it. Moi was like that. Nobody like a Kalonzo or now a Raila windsock.

Nobody want to back somebody flowing with the wind. Ruto has to be careful with GEMA - it's gotta be tough love. You cannot afford to bend backwards like Kalonzo. You have to provide leadership. And this is win-win. GEMA are so fearful of return to 41-1 they will compromise if need be.

If wishes were horses - all beggars would ride that grand glittery thoroughbred stallion. Complete with armored chariot. Reality is what you saw in parliament as they hanged Tharaka dwarf. 2/3 is no joke. This one-man formula is anti-Ruto wedge - that the BASIS - all the circus is to how Uhuru is trying as Ruto vehemently oppose him.

[Nowayhaha]

If wishes were horses - all beggars would ride that grand glittery thoroughbred stallion. Complete with armored chariot. Reality is what you saw in parliament as they hanged Tharaka dwarf. 2/3 is no joke. This one-man formula is anti-Ruto wedge - that the BASIS - all the circus is to how Uhuru is trying as Ruto vehemently oppose him.

These are new signings. The old players are entrenched. Ruto start with near clean sweap of rift valley and pastoral kenya. That is already a huge head-start. He is fighting for his political life in GEMA and so far he still very popular on the ground.  He he support in all corners of kenya. Only Raila use to boast of that.

What next? The BBI crew - will they unite? Under who? Kalonzo and Raila don't see eye to eye. GEma and Raila don't jell. Gideon is hoping against hope. maDVD confused as ever

The small potatos like PK and Matiangi are hoping Uhuru will issues Executive Order No Last to make them president We haven't gone to jokers like Mutua, Makueni Prof, and Wa-riria.

Now here comes Ruto the clear favourite already with running mate.

How many freeloaders are hanging on Mobutu coattails? Khalwale, Omar Hassan, Muthama - the "think tank" is a collection of losers. Delusional Muthama claims to have chokehold on Kamba. Khalwale was clobbered 70-20 by Oparanya but will deliver Luhya. Omar is expected to deliver Coast when he was distant 3rd for Mombasa governor

Roby , what you fail to point out that the following factors made the senators vote the way they did .
First is the nominated senators from Jubilee  were threatened to be thrown out of parliament if they went against Murathe /Njee Muturi/ wishes 
Jubilee elected senators were threatened to be de-whipped from senate committees where they earn perks and allowances essentially their money makers if you also  add favors and corrupt money .
ODM senators want to destroy Jubilee and if they get an opportunity they are ready to utilize it .


Having said that , there is a big difference between party politics , senate politics and national politics . Party and senate politics is not necessarily a reflection of national politics , 90% of the elected senators wont make it back to senate. Majority of the senators didnt make it to senate by virtue of being Kingpins who can sway their regions to vote one way or the other . They made it by belonging to the right party at the right time . In 2013 it was either TNA/URP and in 2017 it was Jubilee , in 2022 it will a new formation albeit even if using the same name as Jubilee.
You need to go back to 2002 and 2013 transition elections and you will realise its not worth it to rely on elected MPS/officials .

Noway - all that political science to explain small item. Saying senators were threatened with de-whipping is implausible - as you can see Murkomen is fiercely anti-Handshake as he was then. Kihika or Cherargei or Ledama defy Raila and Ruto. And you can't have it both ways - if MPs support Ruto they will come back or what? Divorce churn rate from your argument. We were told here during the purge how senators are few and can be threatened easily, that MPs would be the real battle. What happened? Purge sailed through unopposed as Ruto surrendered to save some face.

It took lots of hard work, cronyism and resources to cobble together Jubilee. Much more than URP or TNA overnight party. INCUMBENCY was the principal ingredient to fold parties into Jubilee. Now let see how Luhya or Mijikenda or Gusii agree to follow Ruto to nowhere - Jubilee Asili - only Kalenjin are fully on board. Hata Mdvd amekataa.

You see you are mixing part poltics, senate, politics and personal politics all together.
First on this matter apart from ODM Nyanza politician the rest have not been whipped . You had today Uhuru " disassociating" himself with what is happening in senate .
Murkomen is on a personal mission for personal reason , he wants to show that the Senate speaker and Majority whip and leaders are failures
ledama is using the opportunity to endear to the Maasai and also defend Narok(regional poiltics )
Cherargei and Kihika too are playing regional politics - You might recall Kihika was on the other side but switched quickly when he realized it might affect her politically . Cherargei during voting day was so confused that he voted for the other wing - He had to revote again for the pro formulae.
 All in all the leaders have not pronounced themselves clearly and seem to have left it for the senators to sort it out and in so doing it has either gone political wise regioonally or personally.

I reteriate the ongoings of parliament and  senate dont reflect the national politics its a wrong precursor to use to gauge 2022 elections .

[Nefertiti]

You see you are mixing part poltics, senate, politics and personal politics all together.
First on this matter apart from ODM Nyanza politician the rest have not been whipped . You had today Uhuru " disassociating" himself with what is happening in senate .
Murkomen is on a personal mission for personal reason , he wants to show that the Senate speaker and Majority whip and leaders are failures
ledama is using the opportunity to endear to the Maasai and also defend Narok(regional poiltics )
Cherargei and Kihika too are playing regional politics - You might recall Kihika was on the other side but switched quickly when he realized it might affect her politically . Cherargei during voting day was so confused that he voted for the other wing - He had to revote again for the pro formulae.
 All in all the leaders have not pronounced themselves clearly and seem to have left it for the senators to sort it out and in so doing it has either gone political wise regioonally or personally.

I reteriate the ongoings of parliament and  senate dont reflect the national politics its a wrong precursor to use to gauge 2022 elections .

Okay - so which parameter or poll or sail signals that the national political tide is with Ruto? You pointed out the senators yourself.

[Pajero]

Rutos running mate will be Kindiki kithure,take that to equity and bank.thank me later.

[Nowayhaha]

You see you are mixing part poltics, senate, politics and personal politics all together.
First on this matter apart from ODM Nyanza politician the rest have not been whipped . You had today Uhuru " disassociating" himself with what is happening in senate .
Murkomen is on a personal mission for personal reason , he wants to show that the Senate speaker and Majority whip and leaders are failures
ledama is using the opportunity to endear to the Maasai and also defend Narok(regional poiltics )
Cherargei and Kihika too are playing regional politics - You might recall Kihika was on the other side but switched quickly when he realized it might affect her politically . Cherargei during voting day was so confused that he voted for the other wing - He had to revote again for the pro formulae.
 All in all the leaders have not pronounced themselves clearly and seem to have left it for the senators to sort it out and in so doing it has either gone political wise regioonally or personally.

I reteriate the ongoings of parliament and  senate dont reflect the national politics its a wrong precursor to use to gauge 2022 elections .

Okay - so which parameter or poll or sail signals that the national political tide is with Ruto? You pointed out the senators yourself.

The only barometer to be used in real politics , go to the people on ground  however much you try to undermine it. Take for example below out of 47 senators elected in 2013 only 11 made it back in 2017 - Thats around 23% probability of making it back -So if you are using current Senators as a barometer  of winning 2022 you have a 23% accuracy rate.
See Below statistics

Mombasa County|Mombasa]]||[[Hassan Omar]]||[[Wiper Democratic Movement – Kenya]]-->Sen. Mwinyihaji Mohamed   ==ODM
|-
Kwale County|Kwale]]||[[Boy Juma Boy]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Boy Issa Juma ==ODM
|-
Kilifi County|Kilifi]]||[[Stewart Madzayo]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]] --Sen. Madzayo Stewart Mwachiru   ==ODM
|-
Tana River County|Tana River]]||[[Ali Bule]]||[[Federal Party of Kenya]]-->Sen. Wario Golich Juma   == JP
|-
Lamu County|Lamu]]||[[Abu Chiaba]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Loitiptip Anuar   ==JP
|-
Taita-Taveta County|Taita-Taveta]]||[[Dan Mwazo]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Mwaruma Johnes M   == ODM
|-
Garissa County|Garissa]]||[[Yusuf Haji]]||[[The National Alliance]]--> Sen. Haji Mohamed Yusuf   ==JP
|-
Wajir County|Wajir]]||[[Abdirahman Ali]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]] -->Sen. (Dr.) Ali Abdullahi Ibrahim--JP   
|-
Mandera County|Mandera]]||[[Billow Kerow]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Mahamud Mohamed M==JP
|-
Marsabit County|Marsabit]]||[[Godana Hargura]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Hargura Godana   -JP
|-
Isiolo County|Isiolo]]||[[Mohammed Kuti]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]] -->Sen. Adan Dullo Fatuma   ==PDR
|-
Meru County|Meru]]||[[Kiraitu Murungi]]||[[Alliance Party of Kenya]]-->Sen. Linturi Franklin Mithika==JP   
|-
Tharaka Nithi County|Tharaka]]||[[Kithure Kindiki]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kindiki Kithure   ==JP
|-
Embu County|Embu]]||[[Lenny Kivuti]]||[[Alliance Party of Kenya]]-->Sen. Ndwiga Peter Njeru   ==JP
|-
Kitui County|Kitui]]||[[David Musila]]||[[Wiper Democratic Movement – Kenya]]-->Sen. Wambua Enoch Kiio   ==WDP
|-
Machakos County|Machakos]]||[[Johnstone Muthama]]||[[Wiper Democratic Movement – Kenya]]-->Sen. Kabaka Boniface Mutinda   ==CCU
|-
Makueni County|Makueni]]||[[Mutula Kilonzo]]||[[Wiper Democratic Movement – Kenya]]-->Sen. Kilonzo Mutula Junior   ==WDP
|-
Nyandarua County|Nyandarua]]||[[Muriuki Karue]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Mwangi Paul Githiomi   ==JP
|-
Nyeri County|Nyeri]]||[[Mutahi Kagwe]]||[[National Rainbow Coalition]] -->Sen. (Eng.) Ephraim Mwangi   ==JP
|-
Kirinyaga County|Kirinyaga]]||[[Daniel Karaba]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kibiru Charles Reubenson   ==IND
|-
Murang'a County|Murang'a]]||[[Kembi Gitura]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kang’ata Irungu   ==JP
|-
Kiambu County|Kiambu]]||[[Paul Kimani]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kimani Wamatangi Paul   ==JP
|-
Turkana County|Turkana]]||[[John Munyes]]||[[Forum for the Restoration of Democracy – Kenya|FORD–Kenya]] -->Sen. (Prof.) Imana Malachy Ekal   ==ODM
|-
West Pokot County|West Pokot]]||John Lonyangapuo||[[Kenya African National Union]]-->Sen. Poghisio Samuel Losuron   ==KANU
|-
Samburu County|Samburu]]||[[Sammy Leshore]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]] -->Sen (Dr.) Ltumbesi Lelegwe -- JP
|-
Trans-Nzoia County|Trans-Nzoia]]||[[Henry Ndiema]]||[[Forum for the Restoration of Democracy – Kenya|FORD–Kenya]]--Sen. Mbito Michael Maling’a   ==JP
|-
[Uasin Gishu County|Uasin Gishu]]||Isaac Melly||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Kamar Margaret Jepkoech   ==JP
|-
[Elgeyo-Marakwet County|Elgeyo-Marakwet]]||[[Kipchumba Murkomen]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Murkomen Onesimus Kipchumba   =JP
|-
Nandi County|Nandi]]||[[Stephen Sang]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Cherarkey Samson K   ==JP
|-
Baringo County|Baringo]]||[[Gideon Moi]]||[[Kenya African National Union]]-->Sen. Moi Gideon Kipsielei   ==KANU
|-
Laikipia County|Laikipia]]||[[Godffrey Gitahi Kariuki]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Nderitu John Kinyua   ==JP
|-
Nakuru County|Nakuru]]||[[James Kiarie Mungai]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Kihika Susan Wakarura   ==JP
|-
Narok County|Narok]]||[[Stephen Kanyinge ole Ntutu]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Olekina Ledama   ==ODM
|-
Kajiado County|Kajiado]]||[[Peter Mositet]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Mpaayei Phillip Salau   ==JP
|-
Kericho County|Kericho]]||[[Charles Keter]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. Cheruiyot Aaron Kipkirui   ==JP
|-
Bomet County|Bomet]]||[[Wilson Lessan]]||[[United Republican Party (Kenya)|United Republican Party]]-->Sen. (Dr.) Langat Christopher Andrew==JP
|-
Kakamega County|Kakamega]]||[[Bonny Khalwale]]||[[United Democratic Forum Party]]--Sen. Malala Cleophas W   ==ANC
|-
Vihiga County|Vihiga]]||[[George Khaniri]]||[[United Democratic Forum Party]]-->Sen. Khaniri George   ==ANC
|-
Bungoma County|Bungoma]]||[[Moses Wetangula]]||[[Forum for the Restoration of Democracy – Kenya|FORD–Kenya]]-->Sen. Wetang’ula Moses Masika   ==FORD K
|-
Busia County|Busia]]||[[Amos Wako]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Wako Sitswila Amos   ==ODM
|-
Siaya County|Siaya]]||[[James Orengo]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Orengo James   ==ODM
|-
Kisumu County|Kisumu]]||[[Peter Anyang' Nyong'o]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. Outa Fredrick Otieno   ==ODM
|-
Homa Bay County|Homa Bay]]||[[Otieno Kajwang]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]--> Sen. Kajwang’ Moses Otieno   ==ODM
|-
Migori County|Migori]]||[[Wilfred Machage]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]] -->Sen. Dr. Ochilo G.M. Ayacko.==ODM   
|-
Kisii County|Kisii]]||[[Chris Obure]]||[[Orange Democratic Movement]]-->Sen. (Prof.) Ongeri Samson Kegengo   ==ODM
|-
Nyamira County|Nyamira]]||[[Kennedy Mong'are Okong'o]]||[[Forum for the Restoration of Democracy – Kenya|FORD–Kenya]]--Sen. Mogeni Erick Okong’o   ==ODM
|-
Nairobi County|Nairobi]]||[[Gideon Mbuvi]]||[[The National Alliance]]-->Sen. Sakaja Johnson Arthur   ==JP

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Rutos running mate will be Kindiki kithure,take that to equity and bank.thank me later.

This has better chance.

[RV Pundit]

Kindiki would  be plan C after madvd or Luhya.Ruto plan A is to secure kikuyu vote and he will do that thro battle hardened Mwangi kiunjuri.Kikuyu had the largest effectiv oting block at 3.5m.Kalenjin came 2nd at shy of 2m.Meru plus embu at 1m.The rest gave jubilee nearly 2m..Ruto obviously can grow that 2m by attracting NASA tribes but has lost gusii I bet to matiangi if he will  have the stomach for politics. So Ruto has no choice but to pick kikuyu..his main threat is no longer Raila  but uhuru

[Njuri Ncheke]

Kindiki would  be plan C after madvd or Luhya.Ruto plan A is to secure kikuyu vote and he will do that thro battle hardened Mwangi kiunjuri.Kikuyu had the largest effectiv oting block at 3.5m.Kalenjin came 2nd at shy of 2m.Meru plus embu at 1m.

Wrong, meru had 1M embu 0.2M. Meru by 2022 time will have 1.1M add embu will come to 1.4M
What are the chances of luhyas voting for ruto if he pic mudavadi? How many vites can he get from mudavadi?

[Pajero]

A kikuyu DP will not add any value to Ruto because kikuyus will have a presidential candidate.There is no way kikuyus will leave their own on ballot and vote Ruto.Thats day dreaming.As for Mdvd,I doubt if he will accept to be a running mate.He already fired muluka and owallo for being Rutos sympathizers.Maybe if he goes with Khalwale.

[RV Pundit]

Yes if you look at registered votes; but I was more looking at the effective votes;  I'd say Kikuyus are more than twice Meru and Embu. Nairobi and Kiambu - kikuyu registered voters alone could be nearly 2m. The other counties the kikuyu figures are about "normal".

Btw Meru/Embu (with Kiraitu-Munya playing rough against Ruto) - and Luhya  (with madvd/wetangula cooperating) - I'd take Luhya - as Plan B.

Mt Kenya east would be a plan C ( this is why Pajero likes it).

Wrong, meru had 1M embu 0.2M. Meru by 2022 time will have 1.1M add embu will come to 1.4M
What are the chances of luhyas voting for ruto if he pic mudavadi? How many vites can he get from mudavadi?

[RV Pundit]

Kikuyu or GEMA look very likely to split if Uhuru doesn't back Ruto. There are many reasons for this - including prospect of 2007 repeat - worse case scenario - Ruto will get 50% of Mt Kenya. GEMA laity have so far refused to disembark from Mv Ruto. Ruto still has so many leaders and majority of the people. Kiunjuri bring new dynamic - his Mt Kenya diaspora from Laikipia - and with Nakuru - and they are getting a raw deal (pawns) if Kikuyu-Kalenjin were to fight - so they are the first to sue for peace and stick to 10-10 - and then battle will really happen in central proper - mt kenya east - both Munya and Kiraitu will be busy tearing each other for governorship.

This one man one shilling and BBI provide an opportunity for Uhuru to lose the country and win GEMA. Let see if GEMA will take the bait, hook, line and sinker. The complication is from Meru-Tharaka ( they are against the 1M1S).

And the worse is getting a candidate that can stir up the Mt Kenya expectation. Peter Keneth is long pass his sell by date. CDF magic long disappeared and Ndidi Nyoros are doing better now. Only someone like Equity James Mwangi (genuine GEMA hero) would worry Ruto - otherwise PK or whoever else is waste of time.

In the meantime I think Raila has just about lost COAST, MAA and Turkana. Gusii is pretty much gone to Matiangi. Now Raila last bastion outside Luo Nyanza is maybe Busia and Oparanya

It's really difficult to win both GEMA and Non-GEMA.

A kikuyu DP will not add any value to Ruto because kikuyus will have a presidential candidate.There is no way kikuyus will leave their own on ballot and vote Ruto.Thats day dreaming.As for Mdvd,I doubt if he will accept to be a running mate.He already fired muluka and owallo for being Rutos sympathizers.Maybe if he goes with Khalwale.

[Pajero]

Kikuyus dividing their votes,you are dreaming big.You don't know kikuyus.Tell Ruto to seek votes else where.

[RV Pundit]

And what will you tell Raila whose plan A B C AND D is Kikuyus backing him.

Kikuyus dividing their votes,you are dreaming big.You don't know kikuyus.Tell Ruto to seek votes else where.

[Nefertiti]

You seem too sure about Luhya. Mdvd and ANC have been openly distancing themselves from Ruto which is a bad sign. I mean their new katiba compel Mdvd to go for PORK and opposing voices were crashed. 2013 Mdvd had mostly Maragoli - Bukusu went Raila. Now FORD K is destabilized with coup attempts and warring camps - they just expelled Eseli and Wamunyinyi-Wangamati. I don't see Ruto Luhya prospects as that good - it worse there than Mt Kenya.

Yes if you look at registered votes; but I was more looking at the effective votes;  I'd say Kikuyus are more than twice Meru and Embu. Nairobi and Kiambu - kikuyu registered voters alone could be nearly 2m. The other counties the kikuyu figures are about "normal".

Btw Meru/Embu (with Kiraitu-Munya playing rough against Ruto) - and Luhya  (with madvd/wetangula cooperating) - I'd take Luhya - as Plan B.

Mt Kenya east would be a plan C ( this is why Pajero likes it).

Wrong, meru had 1M embu 0.2M. Meru by 2022 time will have 1.1M add embu will come to 1.4M
What are the chances of luhyas voting for ruto if he pic mudavadi? How many vites can he get from mudavadi?

[Nefertiti]

Yes Ruto fate rest with Mt Kenya and Uhuru. It equally difficult for him to please both GEMA-Non GEMA competing interests. I see Ruto as easier taking MATUSA and NFD but not coast, then Gusii, Luhya, Kamba which have big numbers. He remain as URP-KADU king. Watch keenly and noone big side with him cause he is unpopular outside URP areas and Mt Kenya.

Uhuru seem determined to appease GEMA and doesn't care about the rest. All the tribal appointments in parastatals and parliament, skewed projects and budget allocations, now this 1M1S. PK is taking GEMA with Uhuru backing - who will then partner with Raila. He has no savvy to join those Atwoli meetings by himself it obvious Uhuru is backing him. Ruto will be accused of defeating 1M1S thru Murkomen which Orengo and Kajwang are passionately pushing with Kang!ata and Kimemias. See how quiet MK is right now - same as Joho-Kingi. Cause 1M1S is so popular in Kikuyu, very unpopular in Pwani.

If GEMA go 50-50, am not convinced Ruto has the numbers to beat Raila in non-GEMA. Pastoralist are few. Your guess is as good as mine who Matiang’is and Johos back.

Kikuyu or GEMA look very likely to split if Uhuru doesn't back Ruto. There are many reasons for this - including prospect of 2007 repeat - worse case scenario - Ruto will get 50% of Mt Kenya. GEMA laity have so far refused to disembark from Mv Ruto. Ruto still has so many leaders and majority of the people. Kiunjuri bring new dynamic - his Mt Kenya diaspora from Laikipia - and with Nakuru - and they are getting a raw deal (pawns) if Kikuyu-Kalenjin were to fight - so they are the first to sue for peace and stick to 10-10 - and then battle will really happen in central proper - mt kenya east - both Munya and Kiraitu will be busy tearing each other for governorship.

This one man one shilling and BBI provide an opportunity for Uhuru to lose the country and win GEMA. Let see if GEMA will take the bait, hook, line and sinker. The complication is from Meru-Tharaka ( they are against the 1M1S).

And the worse is getting a candidate that can stir up the Mt Kenya expectation. Peter Keneth is long pass his sell by date. CDF magic long disappeared and Ndidi Nyoros are doing better now. Only someone like Equity James Mwangi (genuine GEMA hero) would worry Ruto - otherwise PK or whoever else is waste of time.

In the meantime I think Raila has just about lost COAST, MAA and Turkana. Gusii is pretty much gone to Matiangi. Now Raila last bastion outside Luo Nyanza is maybe Busia and Oparanya

It's really difficult to win both GEMA and Non-GEMA.

A kikuyu DP will not add any value to Ruto because kikuyus will have a presidential candidate.There is no way kikuyus will leave their own on ballot and vote Ruto.Thats day dreaming.As for Mdvd,I doubt if he will accept to be a running mate.He already fired muluka and owallo for being Rutos sympathizers.Maybe if he goes with Khalwale.

[RV Pundit]

MaDVD is just playing hard to get. He knows he is going nowhere. Savula is just bullying him. The strategy for 2020 - for players like mudavadi - is either pre or post coalition. He has not chance. Ruto has a shot at PORK.  Ruto has never stood for PORK - while MaDVD has - but he had no shot. Only take your chance when you have a shot. Otherwise curve balls is desperation.

You seem too sure about Luhya. Mdvd and ANC have been openly distancing themselves from Ruto which is a bad sign. I mean their new katiba compel Mdvd to go for PORK and opposing voices were crashed. 2013 Mdvd had mostly Maragoli - Bukusu went Raila. Now FORD K is destabilized with coup attempts and warring camps - they just expelled Eseli and Wamunyinyi-Wangamati. I don't see Ruto Luhya prospects as that good - it worse there than Mt Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

The most likely scenario for 2022 is Ruto, Raila (may not run if GEMA abandon him) and Gema candidate.
I predict Ruto will come top but short of 50%
We will have interesting and for the first time - a second re-run.
At this point - it will be deal making - Ruto will probably hit 35-40% at first round. Ruto will probably carry  whole RV including kikuyu diaspora - that is good 25% head start.
GEMA elite (Deep state) candidate with Matiangi deputizing (they will try to get GUSII). Many in GEMA will refuse to board such a system candidate.
The oldman Raila - after being kicked out as candidate for the Brige to Nowhere party - will either run as ODM candidate with Joho or Oparanya - or give up - or will back Ruto.

And then we will have 10 candidates sharing 30% - probably led by either Raila or Uhuru stooge(may score 15-20%).

Now who decide the winner - in 2nd round - it will basically be NON GEMA versus GEMA. Kenyans will have a choice btw another kikuyu candidate going for 10yrs - and Ruto.

And so Ruto wins. GEMA fears a re-run because non_GEMA  will easily gang up - which is why Uhuru had to win in first round.

Ruto only lose if Raila was to get Gema BACKING.
We know GEMA would prefer Ruto than Raila anyday.

So the stars are perfectly aligned for Ruto.

It's just going to be longer path to victory without Uhuru backing.

If Uhuru changes his mind and cut a deal with Ruto.

Ruto wins in first round by 60%.

Yes Ruto fate rest with Mt Kenya and Uhuru. It equally difficult for him to please both GEMA-Non GEMA competing interests. I see Ruto as easier taking MATUSA and NFD but not coast, then Gusii, Luhya, Kamba which have big numbers. He remain as URP-KADU king. Watch keenly and noone big side with him cause he is unpopular outside URP areas and Mt Kenya.

Uhuru seem determined to appease GEMA and doesn't care about the rest. All the tribal appointments in parastatals and parliament, skewed projects and budget allocations, now this 1M1S. PK is taking GEMA with Uhuru backing - who will then partner with Raila. He has no savvy to join those Atwoli meetings by himself it obvious Uhuru is backing him. Ruto will be accused of defeating 1M1S thru Murkomen which Orengo and Kajwang are passionately pushing with Kang!ata and Kimemias. See how quiet MK is right now - same as Joho-Kingi. Cause 1M1S is so popular in Kikuyu, very unpopular in Pwani.

If GEMA go 50-50, am not convinced Ruto has the numbers to beat Raila in non-GEMA. Pastoralist are few. Your guess is as good as mine who Matiang’is and Johos back.

[Pajero]

He doesn't even have a party and you dream of him becoming president,Mobutu will maximize at 18%.His hopes of inheriting Uhurus backyard votes has fallen flat.that was his game plan.kalenjins are just 1.6 registered voters enough to make him a distant third.