Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Sivel on March 12, 2022, 05:16:44 PM
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This is an interesting election, because for the first time no frontrunner is a Kikuyu or GEMA candidate. However, the political discourse is giving Mt. Kenya such an outsize importance. It's the classic Prisoner's Dilemma, where both candidates want a Mt. Kenya candidate for fear that if they don't choose one, and the other side does, they'll lose in the elections.
But I think this is the wrong strategy, because not only does Mt. Kenya have no potential Presidential candidate, they also have no serious candidate for DP that will be said to rally the voters for one side or the other. The people being proposed are all political minions with no broad appeal as national leaders. From Munya to Kenneth to Kuria to Gachagua, none of these can hold a candle to Kalonzo and Mudavadi who are name brands even in Mt Kenya.
I think the best strategy will be for Ruto to pick Mudavadi, and Raila to pick Kalonzo, then they fight for Mt. Kenya as individuals. By choosing Mudavadi, Ruto can rally more Luhyas to his side, since they will see their man has a potential to be DP. In 2013, Mudavadi got less votes than Raila because even though he was their son, voters were being strategic and knew he was going nowhere. Those same voters will see Ruto has a real chance, and with their son as running mate, can rally more around the coalition. Ruto already has most of Mt. Kenya with him without even the question of which DP he'll choose, so why not consolidate from regions where he has less support like Western?
For Raila, the same considerations apply. If he chooses a Mt. Kenya running mate, it will be a minion who won't bring votes, while scattering the strong Kamba bloc that voted him almost to a man, crucially because they were trying to put their son as number 2. If they give Kalonzo nothing of importance, all the Kamba votes will scatter. For Raila, either way, Mt. Kenya won't give him more than 30%, with a GEMA minion or not, so why not consolidate Kambas?
It will be a very interesting election where the DP might end up being a Mt. Kenya minion of no importance, while the more serious potentials from other tribes have to make do with sijui Chief Minister or a funny appointed position.
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and people were thinking AntiGema sentiments are nolonger there.
We knew Raila would team up with Kalonzo. They lost in 2014 ,2017 and they will lose again in 2022.
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I'm a Gemanite, and I think this election should not have Kikuyus on any of the top tickets. That way pressure na chuki ituondokee. Plus it's interesting watching Raila having to campaign without Kikuyus as bogeymen, I wonder how many votes he'll lose due to a lack of Kikuyus to direct hate to.
and people were thinking AntiGema sentiments are nolonger there.
We knew Raila would team up with Kalonzo. They lost in 2014 ,2017 and they will lose again in 2022.
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It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp.But reality is kikuyus especially are big elephant in the house and they will not agree not have dpork..so Ruto should stick with Gachagua....Western if madvd is picked will improve kidigoo but risk of losing gema is huge.If kalonzo was joining Ruto then Ruto would have risked giving him dpork...but baluhya are just unreliable so Ruto will play hard in gema..
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I think by now, Kikuyus have already decided and a majority are going with Ruto on his own capacity, no matter which running mate he chooses. That's why I think Mudavadi is better to bring in more of the Luhya votes. The rest of the Kikuyus going with Raila are out of blind loyalty to Uhuru, not love for Raila. None of the two groups is likely to change their position based on running mate. A UDA adherent will not say "I was to vote for Ruto but now I'll vote Raila because he has a Kikuyu running mate"
It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp
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Losing 5 percent of gema votes is equal to at least 1 percent nationally..Ruto margin of victory is narrow so really unless Uhuru make the propaganda he did in mululu that two tribes is too much Ruto will stick to gema dpork...Ruto is also very principled so if he promised gema it's done deal.
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I think by now, Kikuyus have already decided and a majority are going with Ruto on his own capacity, no matter which running mate he chooses. That's why I think Mudavadi is better to bring in more of the Luhya votes. The rest of the Kikuyus going with Raila are out of blind loyalty to Uhuru, not love for Raila. None of the two groups is likely to change their position based on running mate. A UDA adherent will not say "I was to vote for Ruto but now I'll vote Raila because he has a Kikuyu running mate"
It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp
it really depends on how the gachagua n kurias will react because they will be losing but I am sure if strategical it would be good for the team they won't mind especially if Raila pick kalonzo and uhuru play spoiler like he will do by saying presidency is not reserved for two tribes...so basically yes madvd today fortunes improved and gachagua reduced.In short if kalonzo get picked..Ruto will likely pick madvd..then play for a win in gema... assuming the fallout won't happen..but uhuru n Raila have to make the move..kabila ndogo propaganda as Ruto will play dynasty card definitely
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This could also be in Ruto's considerations. Martha is Mt. Kenya, and even though there's no votes she's adding, she makes a good compromise candidate
https://mobile.twitter.com/mwabilimwagodi/status/1502613682932662274
I think by now, Kikuyus have already decided and a majority are going with Ruto on his own capacity, no matter which running mate he chooses. That's why I think Mudavadi is better to bring in more of the Luhya votes. The rest of the Kikuyus going with Raila are out of blind loyalty to Uhuru, not love for Raila. None of the two groups is likely to change their position based on running mate. A UDA adherent will not say "I was to vote for Ruto but now I'll vote Raila because he has a Kikuyu running mate"
It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp
it really depends on how the gachagua n kurias will react because they will be losing but I am sure if strategical it would be good for the team they won't mind especially if Raila pick kalonzo and uhuru play spoiler like he will do by saying presidency is not reserved for two tribes...so basically yes madvd today fortunes improved and gachagua reduced.In short if kalonzo get picked..Ruto will likely pick madvd..then play for a win in gema... assuming the fallout won't happen..but uhuru n Raila have to make the move..kabila ndogo propaganda as Ruto will play dynasty card definitely
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This could also be in Ruto's considerations. Martha is Mt. Kenya, and even though there's no votes she's adding, she makes a good compromise candidate
https://mobile.twitter.com/mwabilimwagodi/status/1502613682932662274
I think by now, Kikuyus have already decided and a majority are going with Ruto on his own capacity, no matter which running mate he chooses. That's why I think Mudavadi is better to bring in more of the Luhya votes. The rest of the Kikuyus going with Raila are out of blind loyalty to Uhuru, not love for Raila. None of the two groups is likely to change their position based on running mate. A UDA adherent will not say "I was to vote for Ruto but now I'll vote Raila because he has a Kikuyu running mate"
It's likely both candidates will wait until the 10th June when they need to nominate Dpork..in the meantime Ruto will try to get luhyas without promising dpork while Raila will not want to commit to kalonzo..but end of day Ruto biggest challenge remain the perception that it's Kikuyu kalenjin volleyball..so with uhuru playing spoiler..Ruto could gamble with madvd as Dpork ...he really has no much pressure..gachagua is first time mp
it really depends on how the gachagua n kurias will react because they will be losing but I am sure if strategical it would be good for the team they won't mind especially if Raila pick kalonzo and uhuru play spoiler like he will do by saying presidency is not reserved for two tribes...so basically yes madvd today fortunes improved and gachagua reduced.In short if kalonzo get picked..Ruto will likely pick madvd..then play for a win in gema... assuming the fallout won't happen..but uhuru n Raila have to make the move..kabila ndogo propaganda as Ruto will play dynasty card definitely
There is a good reason Martha has announced early that she will be contesting Governorship, nothing more. Reason being she cannot team up with WSR. Is a No! .....
@AoH told everyone on this forum, Kalonzo can never join Ruto. In politics we say there are no permanent enemies but that does not apply for two politicians' (Martha, Kalonzo) Both have broken relationship with one WSR which are Permanent. Martha can NEVER work with WSR. Her beef goes back to 2007 when across a table, she faced down Ruto (then in ODM) during PEV negotiations. You can only argue with me on this one if you were too young in 2007 to understand. In this picture, a visibly enraged Martha shows her intensity of hatred at that time.
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Martha can only negotiate to become Kirinyanga senator - that Ruto can grant her - but governorship that is gone to Waiguru. I dont think anybody would consider him running mate - she doesnt have the temperament for such position - she is too mercurial in Migunasque way.
Alice Wahome would make good DPORK - but this still a man game - so it's down to either Gachagua for Ruto or maDVD in the extreme - if Ruto think GEMA would support him liwe liwalo.
On the other corner - I dont think Kalonzo accepted anything less than DPORK - he wont be able to sell it to Kamba nation. I think Munya and PK drunk water yesterday - I didnt see their faces - but they must have been mourning with Kalonzo.
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Central Kenya have remained steadfast with Ruto inspite of their supposed kingpin Uhuru's wishes. Why would choice of a running mate drive them to Raila? And which Kikuyu politician has such broad appeal that would make Kikuyus feel shortchanged if he's not chosen as DP?
I think Ruto should seriously consider Mudavadi, but of course after bringing his Mt. Kenya lieutenants on board with the decision. After all watu ni kuongea. It would be a masterstroke especially if Uhuru insists on a Kikuyu or Gideon as Raila DP. The fallout with Kambas would be legendary, I doubt they would support Raila a third time but for less.
The same negotiation should happen in Nairobi. Ruto needs to bring Tim Wanyonyi to his side, even if he'll run on Ford Kenya. Then he can use that as a grievance to bring Luhyas to him. Why does Uhuru think he can dictate the DP and Nairobi Governor? For Wanjiru and Sakaja he can negotiate other positions for them, again watu huongea.
Martha can only negotiate to become Kirinyanga senator - that Ruto can grant her - but governorship that is gone to Waiguru. I dont think anybody would consider him running mate - she doesnt have the temperament for such position - she is too mercurial in Migunasque way.
Alice Wahome would make good DPORK - but this still a man game - so it's down to either Gachagua for Ruto or maDVD in the extreme - if Ruto think GEMA would support him liwe liwalo.
On the other corner - I dont think Kalonzo accepted anything less than DPORK - he wont be able to sell it to Kamba nation. I think Munya and PK drunk water yesterday - I didnt see their faces - but they must have been mourning with Kalonzo.
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Who would be stupid enough to pick Gideon as a DP? :D Swivel, you got jokes, haven't you? I think for Azimio it's between Munya and Kaloi. PK, imo, would be a waste of the position. He can't pull in more Kyuk votes than Munya or Uhuru. At least Munya can get Meru votes unless KK pick another Meru to challenge him.
I think everyone is waiting for BBI to be overturned at Supreme Court. This time, I don't think Ruto will fight it because it will be a boon to both camps. They can promise MaDVD and Kaloi Prime Minister each.
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So if we look at the numbers - before we think strategy.
MaDVD alone really can affect part of Vihiga and Kakamega. Ruto had his game already in Kakamega.maDVD sort of doubled his votes
Weta largely affect Bungoma and Tranzoia - and Nairobi Bukusu. Ruto already had is game in Bukusu. Weta doubles his votes.
Weta bring more votes than MaDVD...because Bukusu are like 40 percent of Luhyas.
Weta has accepted his deal - to be National Speaker. He is not going to demand more.
UDA will be majority in parliament - so he almost shoe in as National Speaker plus maybe 1-2 ministers and other small stuff.
Now if we gave MaDVD DPORK - will Kenya Kwanza fortunes improve drastically in Luhyaland.
For now Raila is still getting almost 50 percent of Luhya votes...
If you check - Raila is getting votes in liwe liwalo Luhya subtribes that are historicaly close to Luos.
I doubt MaDVD even as PORK will influence say Busia sub tribes to vote Kenya Kwanza.
Those are "luhyas" named Awori, Atwoli, Adhiambo, odipo...they are more Luos than Luhya...like some Gusii named Odhieki etc
Making MaDVD PORK would add very little in votes...maybe improve Kenya Kwanza from 50-55 percent to 65-70 percent in Luhyaland
Luhya are not a tribe like Kambas - they are just motley collection of bantu speaking people in western provinces.
In terms of votes - making maDVD PORK will add about 1 percent of the national vote - maybe another 200 - 300K votes.
What maDVD will do is lessen the feeling by other kenyans that Kenya Kwanza is Kikuyu-Kalenjin domination of kenya politics.
Such propaganda is not going to fly in Kalenjin or kikuyu land - so basically you're about 40 percent of the total votes who dont give a damn.
Luos will vote Raila liwe liwalo
Such propaganda will only be effective in Luhya, Kambaland, Gusii and Coast.
If you remove Kambas - majority will vote Kalonzo anyway as DPORK - though I believe Ruto will do "suprisingly" well as fatigue and feeling Kalonzo got yet another raw deal sets in.
The propaganda is going to be effective in Luhya, Gusii and coast. Maybe in Maasailand and such areas but hakuna kura uko.
Gusii was long gone anyway because of Matiangi replacing Ruto as DPORK through executive order 1 of 2019- and the fallout from it.
Maybe it combined effect (which already factored in MOAS) is 3 percent loss for Ruto.
Now come the elephant in the house - GEMA.
GEMA combined have 22 percent in population - but about 28 percent when they register and vote really good.
Now it's going to be supressed - maybe 25-26 percent.
Now if Raila pick Kalonzo - and run with Kalenjin-Kikuyu propaganda - he will get those who accepted such propaganda in 2017/2013 - already factored.
If Ruto stick to GEMA - he built a fortress in GEMA as GEMA will see a clear path back to power - from Uhuru messy arrangment.
At the end of day - GEMA will be looking for their own interest.
They are not going to want back to power as soon as possible
So for now - If I was Ruto I stick with GEMA - maDVD can go drying - if he doesnt want the PMship because he is not going to get it anywhere else.
The little excitment from Luhyaland is not guranteed while GEMA are now very important for Ruto - if Kalonzo had signed to KK - GEMA would have been dispensable.
This election will now be decided by GEMA
Central Kenya have remained steadfast with Ruto inspite of their supposed kingpin Uhuru's wishes. Why would choice of a running mate drive them to Raila? And which Kikuyu politician has such broad appeal that would make Kikuyus feel shortchanged if he's not chosen as DP?
I think Ruto should seriously consider Mudavadi, but of course after bringing his Mt. Kenya lieutenants on board with the decision. After all watu ni kuongea. It would be a masterstroke especially if Uhuru insists on a Kikuyu or Gideon as Raila DP. The fallout with Kambas would be legendary, I doubt they would support Raila a third time but for less.
The same negotiation should happen in Nairobi. Ruto needs to bring Tim Wanyonyi to his side, even if he'll run on Ford Kenya. Then he can use that as a grievance to bring Luhyas to him. Why does Uhuru think he can dictate the DP and Nairobi Governor? For Wanjiru and Sakaja he can negotiate other positions for them, again watu huongea.
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I agree MaDVD is overrated. Looking at the Mizani poll, the only one truly delivering something is Wetangula. MaDVD still getting beaten in his back yard by Baba. I don't know why he's ranked higher than Wetangula. Cerelac baby. At least Kalonzo can deliver majority of his tribe. MaDVD is too overrated. Unless the Mizani figures are cooked. Why is he called Luhya kingpin? Seems Wetangula is at least Bukusu Kingpin. He's more indispensable than MaDVD.
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He is just good for the camera. He brings a calming effect. His influence really is on Maragolis - who are barely 50 percent of Vihiga and in part of Kakamega.
I agree MaDVD is overrated. Looking at the Mizani poll, the only one truly delivering something is Wetangula. MaDVD still getting beaten in his back yard by Baba. I don't know why he's ranked higher than Wetangula. Cerelac baby. At least Kalonzo can deliver majority of his tribe. MaDVD is too overrated. Unless the Mizani figures are cooked.
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PK and Martha Karua are another overrated pair. May look good on camera but will deliver net zero% votes.
Only people who can make a difference now in terms of position are Kalonzo, Munya, Kindiki. MaDVD has to stay put even if he doesn't get anything because of the optics. After a month of calling Raila names in public, Malala threats will not be taken seriously :D Everyone knows they've nowhere else to go now. Even OKA is finished.
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I think the idea is to delay the naming as close to the deadline as possible.
Keep everyone hopefully
Kalonzo of course has to reveal to anxious kamba nation what he signed on again.
So he might pressure Raila to name him as DPORK in coalition documents.
If not - Kamba nation will revolt - the signs are already there in various opinion polls showing big RUto support
PK is useless - has no connection with voters - and Martha long lost their mojo - they both plundered in 2013 - if they had supported Uhuru - they would be shoe in now.
PK continues to PLUNDER :) - yesterday marked his death - now he has scramble for governorship - where :)
Martha Karau also continues to play poker -
I dont think Raila has a choice to make - it hard to imagine Kalonzo accepting anything less than DPORK
So Munya drunk water.
Kindiki is tharaka - he is worse than Munya.
That leaves us basically with Ruto picking Gachagua or someone else in GEMA - with maDVD having outside chance...
PK and Martha Karua are another overrated pair. May look good on camera but will deliver net zero% votes.
Only people who can make a difference now in terms of position are Kalonzo, Munya, Kindiki. MaDVD has to stay put even if he doesn't get anything because of the optics. After a month of calling Raila names in public, Malala threats will not be taken seriously :D Everyone knows they've nowhere else to go now. Even OKA is finished.
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This thread and it's replies capture the Raila choices if he has any yet.
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Meanwhile Ruto options
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I agree with you, what Mudavadi brings is respectability of the ticket more than numbers. I still feel that DP has already consolidated all that he can from Central, bypassing Uhuru. If Azimio candidate was anybody else, I agree Ruto's running mate would matter but in this case with Raila's candidacy, DP's GEMA votes are safe. Any GEMA running mate has has the same issue in my opinion, they are not adding much to Ruto's basket. And they are probably not going to leave for Azimio (I'm not sure about Meru though).
It will also avoid that talk of Mt Kenya and Kalenjin which usually tends to suppress support in other regions.
But anyway we're just armchair analysts, I'm sure they are looking at all those scenarios and will act accordingly. Plus I think all these issues will be properly negotiated so nobody feels shortchanged. Ruto has the advantage that he has yet to betray anyone politically so far, so his word is more trustworthy.
So if we look at the numbers - before we think strategy.
MaDVD alone really can affect part of Vihiga and Kakamega. Ruto had his game already in Kakamega.maDVD sort of doubled his votes
Weta largely affect Bungoma and Tranzoia - and Nairobi Bukusu. Ruto already had is game in Bukusu. Weta doubles his votes.
Weta bring more votes than MaDVD...because Bukusu are like 40 percent of Luhyas.
Weta has accepted his deal - to be National Speaker. He is not going to demand more.
UDA will be majority in parliament - so he almost shoe in as National Speaker plus maybe 1-2 ministers and other small stuff.
Now if we gave MaDVD DPORK - will Kenya Kwanza fortunes improve drastically in Luhyaland.
For now Raila is still getting almost 50 percent of Luhya votes...
If you check - Raila is getting votes in liwe liwalo Luhya subtribes that are historicaly close to Luos.
I doubt MaDVD even as PORK will influence say Busia sub tribes to vote Kenya Kwanza.
Those are "luhyas" named Awori, Atwoli, Adhiambo, odipo...they are more Luos than Luhya...like some Gusii named Odhieki etc
Making MaDVD PORK would add very little in votes...maybe improve Kenya Kwanza from 50-55 percent to 65-70 percent in Luhyaland
Luhya are not a tribe like Kambas - they are just motley collection of bantu speaking people in western provinces.
In terms of votes - making maDVD PORK will add about 1 percent of the national vote - maybe another 200 - 300K votes.
What maDVD will do is lessen the feeling by other kenyans that Kenya Kwanza is Kikuyu-Kalenjin domination of kenya politics.
Such propaganda is not going to fly in Kalenjin or kikuyu land - so basically you're about 40 percent of the total votes who dont give a damn.
Luos will vote Raila liwe liwalo
Such propaganda will only be effective in Luhya, Kambaland, Gusii and Coast.
If you remove Kambas - majority will vote Kalonzo anyway as DPORK - though I believe Ruto will do "suprisingly" well as fatigue and feeling Kalonzo got yet another raw deal sets in.
The propaganda is going to be effective in Luhya, Gusii and coast. Maybe in Maasailand and such areas but hakuna kura uko.
Gusii was long gone anyway because of Matiangi replacing Ruto as DPORK through executive order 1 of 2019- and the fallout from it.
Maybe it combined effect (which already factored in MOAS) is 3 percent loss for Ruto.
Now come the elephant in the house - GEMA.
GEMA combined have 22 percent in population - but about 28 percent when they register and vote really good.
Now it's going to be supressed - maybe 25-26 percent.
Now if Raila pick Kalonzo - and run with Kalenjin-Kikuyu propaganda - he will get those who accepted such propaganda in 2017/2013 - already factored.
If Ruto stick to GEMA - he built a fortress in GEMA as GEMA will see a clear path back to power - from Uhuru messy arrangment.
At the end of day - GEMA will be looking for their own interest.
They are not going to want back to power as soon as possible
So for now - If I was Ruto I stick with GEMA - maDVD can go drying - if he doesnt want the PMship because he is not going to get it anywhere else.
The little excitment from Luhyaland is not guranteed while GEMA are now very important for Ruto - if Kalonzo had signed to KK - GEMA would have been dispensable.
This election will now be decided by GEMA
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Yes they will no point promising someone DPORK if you cannot win it.
Ruto has make sure he has rigging margins - given Uhuru will try to rig.
I think for both Raila and Ruto GEMA DPORK is ideal.
However if Raila has picked Kalonzo and Uhuru lead the Kabila mbili propaganda (azimio unity aint working) -
Ruto has the leeway to pick maDVD
I agree with you, what Mudavadi brings is respectability of the ticket more than numbers. I still feel that DP has already consolidated all that he can from Central, bypassing Uhuru. If Azimio candidate was anybody else, I agree Ruto's running mate would matter but in this case with Raila's candidacy, DP's GEMA votes are safe. Any GEMA running mate has has the same issue in my opinion, they are not adding much to Ruto's basket. And they are probably not going to leave for Azimio (I'm not sure about Meru though).
It will also avoid that talk of Mt Kenya and Kalenjin which usually tends to suppress support in other regions.
But anyway we're just armchair analysts, I'm sure they are looking at all those scenarios and will act accordingly. Plus I think all these issues will be properly negotiated so nobody feels shortchanged. Ruto has the advantage that he has yet to betray anyone politically so far, so his word is more trustworthy.
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Malala upping the ante - if kalonzo has it in Azimio - maDVD wants it - or perhaps this choregraphed - I think RVHH had aluded that probability of dropping Kikuyu DPork in Ruto inner circles.
I'd say Gachagua now has 60 percent; maDVD has improved his chance of DPORK to 40 percent.
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DPork Is Mt Kenya, just like it was Rift Valleys in 2013 and 2017. One thing I know about Ruto is that he is focused unlike Raila when instead of picking Ruto as DPM in2008 he went with Mudavadi and it cost him dearly in 2013.
Malala upping the ante - if kalonzo has it in Azimio - maDVD wants it - or perhaps this choregraphed - I think RVHH had aluded that probability of dropping Kikuyu DPork in Ruto inner circles.
I'd say Gachagua now has 60 percent; maDVD has improved his chance of DPORK to 40 percent.
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If Mt kenya are resolute - yes. If not - maDVD could come into play. So far Mt Kenya are resolutely in Hustler Nation. Moses Kuria and Martha would have given Uhuru some propagandist but now it's just him & Kioni :) - so hapo I dont see big threat. He has kiraitu & Munya in Merus who are credible - but in kikuyu proper he is NAKED - walking with Kioni, kanini kega and the other dynasities.
So maDVD chance are even lower than 40 percent - maybe 20 percent - but it's going to be a conversation if Kalonzo get it.
DPork Is Mt Kenya, just like it was Rift Valleys in 2013 and 2017. One thing I know about Ruto is that he is focused unlike Raila when instead of picking Ruto as DPM in2008 he went with Mudavadi and it cost him dearly in 2013.
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(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/qGsaIHb1pUa9M_3FCP9VJCxB5iCBf9n_BmGjCc_UL3aS2vLmy3cJTjgS3yNAHbizXJBjOW3PQi4eujnINbD9VWP3A0I7g0XSt6Fub-gPLEQ=s750)
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Mizani Ceo - think Ndindi Nyoro is good to go
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Say Munya would make ideal running mate for Raila
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Luhya are very hopeful of DPORK unlike Kamba. With alternative parties ODM, DAP Luhya fallout is very likely.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/qGsaIHb1pUa9M_3FCP9VJCxB5iCBf9n_BmGjCc_UL3aS2vLmy3cJTjgS3yNAHbizXJBjOW3PQi4eujnINbD9VWP3A0I7g0XSt6Fub-gPLEQ=s750)
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Ungesoma hapo chini.. Kalonzo is actually prepping kamba for ghost PM and few CS
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka revealed on Friday that he is angling for the Deputy President’s post if Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga wins the August 9 elections.
But the former vice-president, widely seen as the Ukambani political kingpin, said he was ready to forfeit that post for any other provided the community he represents gets a third of the plum positions in the government.
“Talks on power-sharing are still underway. We want to ensure that the Kamba community gets the respect it deserves," he said on Musyi FM, a vernacular radio station.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/kalonzo-i-will-be-raila-s-deputy-3752328
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Very likely Gideon is DPORK - he is one who paid Kalonzo off.
Ungesoma hapo chini.. Kalonzo is actually prepping kamba for ghost PM and few CS
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka revealed on Friday that he is angling for the Deputy President’s post if Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga wins the August 9 elections.
But the former vice-president, widely seen as the Ukambani political kingpin, said he was ready to forfeit that post for any other provided the community he represents gets a third of the plum positions in the government.
“Talks on power-sharing are still underway. We want to ensure that the Kamba community gets the respect it deserves," he said on Musyi FM, a vernacular radio station.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/kalonzo-i-will-be-raila-s-deputy-3752328
/photo/1
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Kilonzo Jnr insist Kalonzo must be DPORK
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-03-19-mutula-kilonzo-jnr-kalonzo-must-be-railas-running-mate/
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Where is Ndindi Nyoro?
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/qGsaIHb1pUa9M_3FCP9VJCxB5iCBf9n_BmGjCc_UL3aS2vLmy3cJTjgS3yNAHbizXJBjOW3PQi4eujnINbD9VWP3A0I7g0XSt6Fub-gPLEQ=s750)
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I get the new spin from UDA fake newsdesk is Gideon for DPORK, Uhuru for PM. Except in few months they will have to spin away the official Raila-PK ticket.
Very likely Gideon is DPORK - he is one who paid Kalonzo off.
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Look like both camps may seize each other until one blinks.
Karua versus Wahome - both are women but too old.
Munya versus Kindiki - Merus
PK versus Ndidi - Muranga
Kalonzo versus MaDVD - Non GEMA
Lastly the realistic tickets
Gachagua - has probably bought it
Gideon Moi - has probably bought it
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Nomination fallout reap both sides.
Runningmate fallout reap both sides. Who reap most is the question.
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Increasingly looking like Raila has given up on mt Kenya and is back to the trusty Kalonzo ticket.I believe their internal polling are showing things are thick in Mt Kenya and kambas are going to Ruto without kalonzo as Doork.I cannot read Ruto tea leaves..still look like Gachagua is hot favourite
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The next two weeks should clear two things..final coalition deals on 9th this week and 26th party primaries.That leave month of may for running mate drama.
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kalonzo says the issue is settled. It obvious he will be the running mate. That may help firm AZIMIO numbers in Ukambani but leave Ruto to either pick Mudavadi or firm his support amongst GEMA.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-04-06-kalonzo-pulls-fresh-twist-in-azimio-running-mate-debate/
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Kalonzo is just playing his cards, he isn't assured of anything. The other day he was saying he won't campaign for Raila until he's named running mate. Then Martha joined Azimio, he panicked and began to campaign, unprompted. He is afraid Martha might upstage him. So now he's talking to media to try and force Raila's hand.
kalonzo says the issue is settled. It obvious he will be the running mate. That may help firm AZIMIO numbers in Ukambani but leave Ruto to either pick Mudavadi or firm his support amongst GEMA.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-04-06-kalonzo-pulls-fresh-twist-in-azimio-running-mate-debate/
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With BBI dead - there is only one thing for Kalonzo to take home - consolation prize is DPORK. If not Kambas who are already 50-50 will vote for Kenya Kwanza - rendering Kalonzo politically dead. So I think Kalonzo wont compromise.Uhuru also need something to take back to Mt kenya - to get 30 percent - of Mt kenya at most. PK and Karua are weak. Munya is 50-50 in Meru.
It's tough - at this point because there are only two positions - you have to decide - because either way you're going to lose or gain votes.
For Raila - I would go for reliable Kambas - and for Ruto I would go for reliable GEMA.
For Raila - GEMA coming to him after appointing DPORK is untested hypothesis.
For Ruto - Luhyas voting for him after appointing DPORK is untested hypothesis.
Kalonzo is just playing his cards, he isn't assured of anything. The other day he was saying he won't campaign for Raila until he's named running mate. Then Martha joined Azimio, he panicked and began to campaign, unprompted. He is afraid Martha might upstage him. So now he's talking to media to try and force Raila's hand.]
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Mt Kenya set for DPORK in Kenya Kwanza - with MaDVD+Weta getting whopping 40 percent of the gov. MMh I would expect 30 percent.
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Mt Kenya set for DPORK in Kenya Kwanza - with MaDVD+Weta getting whopping 40 percent of the gov. MMh I would expect 30 percent.
Looks like MaDVD and Weta never learned that gentlemen's agreements mean zilch, nada, niente...in Kenya
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They learnt..that why they first took signing fee of dollars that are untraceable.the fools are these https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-04-06-8-parties-in-azimio-threaten-to-walk-out-lament-over-lack-of-inclusivity/
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Tough choice for Raila - Mt kenya or Kalonzo or Kenyatta
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Munya out. Kindiki out. Merus out.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Chief Executive Hussein Marjan told the Sunday Nation that potential running mates who did not resign by February 9 cannot be cleared to run.
“The qualifications for candidates apply equally to their running mates. Only a sitting ward representative, MP, governor, women representative, senator and president including their deputies are exempt,” Mr Marjan said.
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Poor Kaloi now begging and pleading to be made DPORK.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/kalonzo-dismisses-team-formed-to-pick-raila-running-mate-3785806
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Look like running mate must be known by 28th - 10days!!. That basically mean by end of May pretty much we can call this election after observing any fallout from the nominations.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/kalonzo-dismisses-team-formed-to-pick-raila-running-mate-3785806
EBC Director for Legal and Public Affairs Chrispine Owiye confirmed that the presidential contenders have until April 28 to present their names as well as that of their running mates for clearance.
“The names of both principal and running mate are sent together. They are one package,” Mr Owiye told the Nation.
With the nominations set to end on April 22, IEBC wants political parties, coalitions, and coalition political parties to submit names of candidates intending to run on their tickets for the presidential, governor, senator, woman representative, MP, and member of the county assembly.
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Apart from Kalonzo, Martha Karua is also a potentially good running mate for Raila because she would attract most of the older Kikuyu voters who have stuck with Uhuru. She would assuage their fears about Raila. However, I highly doubt Uhuru would allow her to be the running mate.
I'm beginning to think that Uhuru doesn't want Raila to win. This is because a Raila victory will render Uhuru as Azimio Chairman weak since he won't be having State Power to protect his loot. He will be among the first to be cast aside.
However, if Raila loses, Uhuru will be powerful as Azimio Chairman. Raila won't be having state power to get back at him, so he'll be able to control Azimio and its MPs so that President Ruto cannot easily go after him.
He will pretend to be campaigning for Raila, keep promising to go to the "ground" in Mt Kenya but never actually doing so. He won't want a strong DP for Raila, so he might go for a nonsensical choice like Gideon or PK.
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Yes what is emerging is that uhuru is busy selling and rebuilding jubilee.. selling reds without selling Raila or blues..I don't know at what point they will launch serious campaign for Raila.. because so far it's seem jubilee is getting concession from Raila without them selling Raila.It appears they know selling Raila will hurt jubilee quest to get mps and such..Raila is being played poker ingine ya maajabu...he so weak he jumps when told to jump.They should have listened to Itumbi weaking theory.Next Uhuru will take Azimio as his own political insurance...Raila will be in Bondo.. having been KOed
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Martha look likely to nail the honour of escorting Raila to retirement.
She is set on trip abroad with Jakom
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/how-mt-kenya-is-arm-twisting-raila-to-win-running-mate-ticket-3788284
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Given their endgame is an 'imperial president', I don't see how any strong personality like Karua can be a consideration.
It is confusion galore because even the imperial president ufool wants to share with babaman. You kill a constitutional DPORK then create a hollow space in the air you expect to have powers.
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The council will decide - looking at Council - Raila has 3 members including himself; Kalonzo has himself; the rest are Uhuru people.
(https://ocdn.eu/pulscms-transforms/1/K7rk9kpTURBXy8zODMzYjgwMGQ2ZWI0ODhmY2U2NTM0YzZkYmFjYjIwYi5qcGeSlQNOAM0D4c0CL5MFzQMWzQGugaEwBQ)
Raila may get Wamunyinyi and Ngilu. Making his camp 5.
Uhuru has Sabina, Naomi, Gideon and Martha - and himself. Camp has 5.
That leaves Kalonzo as odd man out. He simply out-gunned - and can only make DPORK if they are convinced he would be the best - or would leak votes. But knowing arrogance from both Uhuru & Raila - he is kaput. This one looks like Martha has it.
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I like the thinking of this Ochungwa guy.
1) Uhuru will pick somebody who wont overshadow him in mt kenya - that rule out PK/Martha.
2) Ruto likely to go for Ndidi Nyoro.
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Martha look likely to nail the honour of escorting Raila to retirement.
She is set on trip abroad with Jakom
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/how-mt-kenya-is-arm-twisting-raila-to-win-running-mate-ticket-3788284
That is right @pundit. Here for the diaspora and Azimio team in Washington, the question of who will be Raila running mate is settled.
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We in Kenya Kwanza are praying you make that mistake. You will be adding 43,000 votes and substracting at least a million from Kalonzo group. If I was to guess where Kalonzo is spending his free time - it's somewhere negotiating a plan B with Ruto people. The day you announce it's not Kalonzo - Kalonzo will announce his move out of Azimio.
That is right @pundit. Here in diaspora, in Washington, the question of who will be Raila running mate is settled.
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You have heard but choose to ignore that quientisatial saying that a day in politics is a long time, and so you continue to peddle figures that are 5 years old even when the arithmetic has changed and Raila has not been betrayed ... :85: won't be betrayed.
We in Kenya Kwanza are praying you make that mistake. You will be adding 43,000 votes and substracting at least a million from Kalonzo group. If I was to guess where Kalonzo is spending his free time - it's somewhere negotiating a plan B with Ruto people. The day you announce it's not Kalonzo - Kalonzo will announce his move out of Azimio.
That is right @pundit. Here in diaspora, in Washington, the question of who will be Raila running mate is settled.
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You dont know what betrayal is until it's literally hit you on the face. You'll know when in Kioni and Kanini Kega and ichwaeri polling station Raila scores zero :). Three months to election - nobody is selling Raila in central - bar Peter Munya.
Part of being betrayed is being handed dead on arrival Martha or PK - people who long lost their political mojo in GEMA nation - at expense of reliable Kamba vote. Being given Kioni :) - surely to manage you.
This game is too complicated for you and Raila. 5th or 6th loss loading.....about 90% complete.
This Ruto long time hater is about to get it.
Poor Gitau Warigi.
https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/why-do-president-uhuru-kenyatta-s-men-desert-him--3792268
You have heard but chose to ignore that quientisatial saying that a day in politics is a long time, and so you continue to peddle figures that are 5 years old even when the arithmetic has changed and Raila has not been betrayed ... :85: won't be betrayed.
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IEBC insist deadline for running mate is Friday this week.
Raila now thinking of sending many running mates alongside his candidature. Will that pass?
Or it is time to bite the bullet - and deal with fallout.
Luhya nation are we speaking are switching en-masse to Kenya Kwanza having seen what they did to Tim - last nail that broke the camel back. Kakamega, Bungoma, Tranzoia and Vihiga are now mostly Ruto. Now it's Busia where it's 50-50 btw Ruto and Raila.
If Raila fails to pick Kalonzo - the same will happen in Ukambani.
Knowing Mt kenya - they will not deliver to Raila despite DPORK.
So we are looking Raila dropping to 35 percent - and Ruto Rising to 65 percent soon :) :)
2022 is becoming no contest...
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It's down to these three in Ruto camp
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-04-26-photos-ruto-holds-talks-with-gachagua-kindiki-and-muturi/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter
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In end UDA will run in 42 counties except three counties of Bungoma-Kakamega-Tranozia plus I guess Kisumu-Siaya-Homabay?
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Look like Kindiki is set to become the man
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR7z18MXsAERxw5?format=jpg&name=900x900)